EX-99.3 4 d369368dex993.htm EX-99.3 EX-99.3

Exhibit 99.3

 

LOGO

Business model and capital allocation strategy
Roger Dassen
Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Investor Day Veldhoven
PAGE 1


LOGO

Business model and capital allocation strategy Key messages     Investments create    Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant value    shareholder value Growth in    Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity markets    on future nodes fuel demand for our products and services Market scenarios    We expect substantial growth opportunities in this decade opportunity    Based on different market scenarios, we see an opportunity to achieve the following in 2025 and 2030: 2025: annual revenue between approximately €30 billion and €40 billion with gross margin between approximately 54% and 56% 2030: annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with gross margin between approximately 56% and 60% Growing dividends    We expect to continue to return significant amounts of cash to our shareholders and buybacks    through a combination of growing dividends and share buybacks ASML announces a new share buyback program, effective today, and to be executed by December 31, 2025. We intend to repurchase shares up to an amount of €12.0 billion Page 2


LOGO

Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation Page 3


LOGO

ASML’s technology leadership comes from strategic investments that     enable cost-effective innovations for our customers     Growth methods    Investments Organic growth by investments     in R&D and Capex     4.7 Berliner Glas acquisition (€0.3bn) Strategic acquisitions and     Carl Zeiss SMT Holding investments in     acquisition 24.9% ( interest €1.0bn) 1.5 3.5 Supply chain for technology and capacity (Cymer, Carl     HMI acquisition (€2.8bn)3.2 Zeiss SMT, Berliner Glas)     2.90.9 bn 1.0 New business (HMI)€ In Cymer acquisition 2.20.9 (€3.1bn) 1.60.6 1.41.41.43.2 0.4 1.10.40.40.32.5 0.92.2 0.80.22.0 0.7 0.30.21.6 0.1 1.11.11.11.3 0.9 0.5 0.60.6 2010 2011201220132014201520162017*20182019202020212022E** * ASML contribution Zeiss SMT Capex included as of 2017     ** 2022E is the best estimate for the FY2022 figures     R&DCapex Page 4


LOGO

ASML’s EPS has grown at a CAGR of 18% since 2010 driven by revenue growth, improved margins and share buybacks     Growth drivers    Revenue/Gross margin/EPS 32.0     14.36 • Systems revenue grew at a 12%     CAGR since 2010     • Installed Base Management* grew    27.0 8.4953% at a 21% CAGR since 2010 driven     6.106.16 by upgrades and service of growing     50% 22.0     4.9321.1 installed base     49% 18.6 453.46 • Gross margin improved from 43%     3.3.225.7 2.72.74 in 2010 to ≥50%, reflecting the    17.0 2.352.3646%5.0 strength of our DUV and     45%45%45%14.0 44%46% Applications business and progress     43%11.8 12.0     43%10.93.7 in EUV profitability     42%42%9.12.8 • EPS grew at 18% CAGR since     2.7 36.82.715.4 2010 driven by profitability and    7.0 5.75.25.96.13.7 share buyback     4.50.84.71.62.12.210.3 0.6 0.91.38.39.0 6.4 2.0    3.9 4.93.84.04.24.24.6 2010 201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E (3.0)     * Installed Base Management equals our net service and field option sales     Systems (€bn) Installed Base Management (€bn) EPS (€)Gross margin (%) Page 5


LOGO

ASML created significant shareholder value over    the period 2010-2022* ASML outgrows markets indices    Total Shareholder Return Total Shareholder Return (TSR)    3,000 annualized compounded :     2,500 ASML (Nasdaq) : 24% Semiconductor index—SOX 18%2,000 Technology index—Nasdaq 14% $     in    1,500 1,000 500 0 2010 2011201220132014 20152016201720182019202020212022 Source: Bloomberg (Total Shareholder Return: index = 2010)     Total Shareholder Return (TSR) = shareprice increase + dividend pay-out     2022*: the graph includes data until November 1, 2022     ASML (Nasdaq)NASDAQS&P 500SOXAEX Page 6


LOGO

Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation Page 7


LOGO

Model scenarios     Model assumptions     Scenarios End markets    Wafer demand Litho spend 20252030 Start with end markets    Convert to wafer demand: Translate to worldwideHighHigh High – Low scenarios    units, convert to ASML LowLow share Installed Base    Estimate growth of our Management    Installed Base business Page 8


LOGO

Semi end markets expected to grow 9% through 2030     All markets contributing; Datacenter, Automotive and Industrial expected to outperform     Smartphone ($bn)     Personal Computing ($bn) Consumer Electronics ($bn) 21 +6%+3% 12512 121 1 1 5 1 121150 15115 1011+9% 10210011 10    115 105 11 2 1 250 5 15 1    1 1120 21 22 2225 2 222015 1 1 11 20 21 22 22 25 2 22 2015 1 1 11 20 2122 2 2 25 2222 0 Wired & wireless Infrastructure ($bn)     Servers, Datacenters & Storage ($bn) Total Semiconductor ($bn) 2Forecast +13% +8%2+61 21 15 5 55111 5100 1CAGR10 2 0    1 11 2 22020-2030+9%+157 15 1    1 1120 21 22 2225 2 222015 1 1 11 20 21 22 22 25 2 22 20 2 Automotive ($bn)     Industrial Electronics ($bn) 5 51 5 1 11 02222 +14%+12% +18+405 102101 125 55 0     2105250 51 15 1    1 1120 21 22 2225 2 222015 1 1 11 20 21 22 22 25 2 22 2015 1 1 11 20 2122 2 2 25 2222 0Source: Historical data: Gartner. Outlook: Gartner Q22 Forecast (Sep22, 2022) for years ’22-’2 ; Outlook 20 0: ASML estimate; segment revenue extrapolated using ’20-’2     Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Some deviations from this methodology due to expected growth profile differences across the decade     CMD 2021CMD 2022 CMD 2022—extrapolation Page 9


LOGO

Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments     Higher growth for advanced Logic, mature markets and Technological sovereignty     and foundry competition compared to CMD    2021 Capacity (million wafer/year) 300 mm equivalent     Cost-effective innovations ~10% inefficiency or an additional •Tech sovereignty leading to less efficient use of the installed 18 million wafer capacity by 2030 200     capacity as countries/regions aim to (re)gain fab footprint. •Fab base becomes more spread in ownership and geography and load balancing will become more difficult •Intensified foundry competition could lead to period with 150     overcapacity as players try to capture market share kwspm/yr kwspm/yr Percentage CMD 2021GrowthCAGR 2020-20252020-20302020-2030 100     NAND+100+1004.9% DRAM+80+804.7% Advanced Logic+125+22012.0% Mature+200+3806.0% Total+505+7806.5% +Technological Sovereignty &-+1500.8% 0     Competition 2010    2015 202020252030Total capacity+505+9307.4% Source: ASML analysis, advanced Logic ≤2    nm, mature >2 nmMatureLogicDRAMNAND Page 10


LOGO

Lithography spend increasing on future nodes     Advanced Logic (≤ 28 nm)     DRAMNAND 45 kwspm*     100 kwspm 120 kwspm 100%     100%100% 80%     80%80% Wavelength    60% 60%60% by     %    40% 40%40% Spend    20% 20%20% 0%     0%0% 7 nm    5 nm 3 nm 2 nm1.x nm1 nm1Z1A1B1C0A0B0C92L128L176L2xxL3xxL4xxL5xxL Starts     Wafer     Spend/k     y     Lithograph     ~30% NoN** >20% NoN >10% NoN 7 nm    5 nm 3 nm 2 nm1.x nm1 nm1Z1A1B1C0A0B0C92L128L176L 2xxL3xxL4xxL5xxL *kwspm: 1,000 wafer starts per month;     ** NoN: Node on Node;     High-NAEUVArFi Dry Page 11


LOGO

Mature markets drive DUV spend     Power    Mature Logic/Analog Sensors 45K wafers/month     Non-OpticalOptical 100%     90%     80%     70%     60%     50%     40%     30%     20%     10%     0%     250 nm    130 nm 45 nm250 nm40 nm ArFi ArF KrF i-line Page 12


LOGO

Installed Base Management*: growing installed base provides     opportunity for growth in service and upgrades     Growth drivers:     Installed Base Management: services and upgrades • Growing installed base     14 population     • Service: move to value-based    bn) 12 €     services    ( • Upgrades: design for    revenue 10~10% CAGR extendibility, enabling     performance upgrades in     ~10% CAGR the field    Management 8CAGRCAGR ase     11%13% B     Installed    6 ~15% CAGR ~12% CAGR 4 2 0 2020CMD’212025CMD’212030 20252030 * Installed Base Management equals our net service and field option sales    midpoint Page 14


LOGO

Model    assumptions 2025 & 2030 Market share assumptions: EUV 100%, ArFi 90%, Dry 65%     Advanced Logic (≤ 28 nm) DRAMNAND General    • EUV High-NA high volume from 2025/2026•EUV High-NA from 2026•Storage class memory remains a niche 2-year cadence•<2-year cadence•3D NAND: stack of stacks & CMOS bonded array. •<2-year cadence Market    • Reference 16/14 nm, 350 kwspm* Bit growth:Bit growth: Low—High    • Node on node (percent change):•Low:15%•Low:25% Low: -5%•High:25%•High:35% High: 8% EUV    • 20-30 EUV exposures (including High-NA)•70-80% of wafer capacity converted First EUV High-NA node ~ 4-9 exposuresto nodes with up to 9 exposures of EUV (including High-NA) ** •First High-NA node ~1-2 exposures * kwspm: 1000 wafer starts per month     ** Assuming EUV export license restrictions apply     Page 15


LOGO

Our updated model for 2025 goes beyond our high-market scenario from     CMD    2021 Market    System units Total sales opportunity (in €bn) CMD 2021    CMD 2022 CMD 2022CMD 2021CMD 2022CMD 2022 High    Units ASML Units ASMLUnits ASMLSalesSales Sales 2025    2025 2030202520252030 EUV High-NA 0.55    5 530Systems (Litho and M&I*) 233247 EUV Low-NA 0.33    70 8080 ArFi (immersion)    78 105115Installed Base Management**7813 Dry    189 385425 Total    342 575650Total304060 CMD 2021    CMD 2022 CMD 2022CMD 2021CMD 2022CMD 2022 Low    Units ASML Units ASMLUnits ASMLSalesSales Sales 2025    2025 2030202520252030 EUV High-NA 0.55    5 515Systems (Litho and M&I*) 182333 EUV Low-NA 0.33    48 6565 ArFi (immersion)    63 7585Installed Base Management**6711 Dry    124 180250 Total    240 325415Total243044 *M&I : Metrology & Inspection     ** Installed Base Management equals our net service and field option sales     Page 16


LOGO

Higher sales across all product portfolio translates                     to increase                 in                 2025                     and 2030 modeled scenario                 Growth drivers                                     ASML 2025—2030 sales build up (mid point of range)                                  CMD     CMD 2022                 CMD 2022                 Increase in EUV and                 2021     Sales development                 Sales development                 Non EUV(*)is driven by                 2025     2025                 2030                 increase in units for                 2025 and increase in                 units/ASP for 2030                 4     52                  3                                  10                 Growing Installed                 Base Management                 provides higher                 3                 1     35                                  4                 service and field                 27                 upgrade business                                  bn)                 CAGR                     CMD                 CMD                 ( €                                  2021                 2022                 sales                 2020 – 2025     14%                 20%                 2020 – 2030     11%                 14%                 Modeled                 2025 – 2030     8%                 8%                                  2025     EUV     Non EUV*                 IBM** 2025 EUV                 Non EUV*     IBM** 2030 * Non EUV = DUV + Metrology & Inspection                     ** IBM = Installed Base Management, equals our net service and field option sales                     Page 19


LOGO

And increasing litho as a percentage of semi    market Drivers     Litho/Semi industry sales ratio • Semi industry sales growing faster     this decade than in previous     decades     6% • Higher semi market growth     requires increased upfront Capex     5% investments to enable future semi     growth     4% • Equipment portion within overall     Capex is increasing, with    market opportunity to further increase litho    semi 3% • Technological sovereignty trend    of leads to lower utilization    percentage 2% as     Litho    1% 0% 2000 200520102015202020252030 Source: ASML analysis using WSTS.org, SEMI.org, VLSI Research/TechInsights, Gartner     External sourcesASML CMD 2022 scenarios (High-Low range) Page 20


LOGO

ASML updated financial model     CMD 2021CMD 2022CMD 2022 Actuals     Low—High marketLow—High marketLow—High market 2021     202520252030 Total sales    18.6€bn ~24 – 30€bn~30 –40€bn~44 –60€bn Installed Base     Management*     5.0€bn~6 –€bn ~7 –€bn ~11 –1€bn System sales     1 . €bn ~18 – 2€bn ~23 –2€bn~33 –€bn Gross margin     52.7%~54 – 56%~54% –56%~56% –60% R&D    2.5€bn (1 %)~3.4 –. €bn ~4.3 –.€bn ~6.0 –.€bn SG&A    0. €bn ( %)~1.0€bn~1.€bn ~1.€bn Capex    0. €bn (5%) ~1.0€bn~1.5€bn~1.5€bn Cash Conversion Cycle    219 days <200 days<200 days<200 days Effective Tax Rate     15%~16%~16.5%**~16.5%** * Installed Base Management equals our net service and field option sales     ** Estimated Effective Tax Rate is based on 2022 tax legislation, and currently expected changes     Page 22


LOGO

Our flexible operating model can deal with the industry volatility and uncertainties     Flexible workforce    Outsourced R&D Systems Cost of Goods (COG) at Employees    R&D spend, B€ Standard, composition Additional flexibility through the     Majority of systems COG is hour bank and other measures     externally sourced 7%     27%     82% 93%     73%     18% 2021    2021 2021 Flexworkers    D&E Flex labor and farm-out Materials Own personnel    D&E Fix labor and other costs Labor Page 23


LOGO

Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation Page 24


LOGO

ASML’s capital return policy     Maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet     Focused investment in our business through R&D, Capex    Excess cash distribution •Combination of growing dividends and share buybacks 4.7•A new share buyback program, effective today, to be executed by Berliner Glas acquisition ecember 1, 2025. Intention to repurchase shares up to €12.0 billion, (€0. bn) of which we expect a total of up to 2 million shares to cover employee Carl Zeiss SMT Holdingshare plans. Intention to cancel the remainder of the shares30.8 acquisition 24.9% interest1.5repurchased. (€1.0bn)3.5 3.2 HMI acquisition23.99.3 (€2. bn) 2.90.9 1.0 bn     bn 6.7 €     2.20.9€ In     In Cymer acquisition (€ .1bn) 1.60.614.0 1.41.41.43.211.7 0.410.05.4 1.10.40.40.32.58.24.321.5 0.9    0.8 0.22.02.26.47.23.017.2 0.7     5.52.4 0.3     1.64.04.51.9 0.2 1.31.4 0.1     0.91.11.11.12.43.30.60.91.17.07.48.6 0.5    0.6 0.60.30.54.44.95.35.8 2.12.83.43.7 2010    2011 20122013201420152016 2017*2018201920202021 2022E**up to201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 2010YTD*** Annual R&DAnnual CapexCumulative share buybackCumulative dividend *ASML contribution for Zeiss SMT capex included as of 2017     ** 2022E is the best estimate for the FY2022 figures     *** 2022YTD is up to and including 18 October 2022 for share buyback and including 14 November 2022 interim dividend     Page 25


LOGO

Business model and capital allocation strategy Key messages     Investments create    Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant value    shareholder value Growth in    Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity markets    on future nodes fuel demand for our products and services Market scenarios    We expect substantial growth opportunities in this decade opportunity    Based on different market scenarios, we see an opportunity to achieve the following in 2025 and 2030: 2025: annual revenue between approximately €30 billion and €40 billion with gross margin between approximately 54% and 56% 2030: annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with gross margin between approximately 56% and 60% Growing dividends    We expect to continue to return significant amounts of cash to our shareholders and buybacks    through a combination of growing dividends and share buybacks ASML announces a new share buyback program, effective today, and to be executed by December 31, 2025. We intend to repurchase shares up to an amount of €12.0 billion Page 26


LOGO

Forward Looking Statements This document and related discussions contain statements that are forward-looking within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements with respect to expected trends, including trends in end markets and the technology industry and business environment trends, expected lithography and semiconductor industry growth and growth rates and revenue, capital intensity outlook, expected growth in semiconductor end markets, expected growth in wafer demand and capacity and additional wafer capacity requirements, expected investments in wafer capacity and plans to increase capacity, expected growth in lithography spend, opportunity for growth in service and upgrades and expected growth in Installed Base Management sales, expected increase in capacity and plan for ASML and its suppliers to increase capacity and output to meet demand, expected production of systems, updated model for 2025 and 2030, outlook and expected, modelled or potential financial results, including revenue projections and annual revenue opportunity gross margin, R&D costs, SG&A costs, capital expenditure, cash conversion cycle and annualized effective tax rate for 2025 and 2030 and assumptions underlying such expected, modelled or potential amounts, and other assumptions underlying our business and financial models, expected trends in semiconductor end markets and long term growth opportunities, demand and demand drivers, expected growth in the semiconductor industry including demand growth and expected capital spend in the coming years, the impact of technology sovereignty and foundry competition, statements with respect to dividends and share buybacks and dividend policy, including expectation of growing dividends and buybacks and statements with respect to ASML’s new buyback plan, energy generation and consumption trends and the drive toward energy efficiency, increasing technological sovereignty across the world, including specific goals of countries across the world, increasing competition in the foundry business and other non-historical statements. You can generally identify these statements by the use of words like “may”, “will”, “could”, “should”, “project”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “potential”, “intend”, “continue”, “target”, “future”, “progress”, “goal” and variations of these words or comparable words. These statements are not historical facts, but rather are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections about our business and our future financial results and readers should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements do not guarantee future performance and involve a number of substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors, the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand and capacity for our customers’ products, performance of our systems, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and measures taken to contain it on us, our suppliers, the global economy and financial markets, the impact of the Russian military actions in the Ukraine and measures taken in response on the global economy and global financial markets and other factors that may impact ASML’s financial results, including customer demand and ASML’s ability to obtain parts and components for its products and otherwise meet demand, the success of technology advances and the pace of new product development and customer acceptance of and demand for new products, risks relating to execution of technology roadmaps, demand and production capacity and our and our supplier’s ability to increase capacity to meet demand, the impact of inflation and any recession, investments in capacity and lithography spend, our ability to meet the goals and expectations in our business and financial models and whether the assumptions underlying our models prove to be reasonable and accurate, the number and timing of systems ordered, shipped and recognized in revenue, and the risk of order cancellation or push out, supply chain capacity and constraints and logistics and constraints on our ability to produce systems to meet demand, our ability to increase capacity including our infrastructure and workforce, our ability to control costs and maintain and improve gross margin and competitive position, trends in the semiconductor industry, our ability to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights and the outcome of intellectual property disputes and litigation, availability of raw materials, critical manufacturing equipment and qualified employees, trade environment, geopolitical risks and impact on our business, import/export and national security regulations and orders and their impact on us including the impact of new U.S. export regulations, changes in exchange and tax rates, available liquidity and liquidity requirements, our ability to refinance our indebtedness, available cash and distributable reserves for, and other factors impacting, dividend payments and share repurchases, results of our share repurchase program and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2021 and other filings with and submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this document. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements after the date of this report or to conform such statements to actual results or revised expectations, except as required by law. Page 27


LOGO

ASML SMALL TALK 2022 INVESTOR DAY VELDHOVEN