EX-99.2 3 ppl8kexhibit99-2.htm EXHIBIT 99.2 Exhibit 99.2
Exhibit 99.2
 
First Quarter Earnings Call
May 3, 2007
 
 

 
1
Cautionary Statements And Factors That
May Affect Future Results

Any statements made in this presentation about future operating results or other future events are forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from such forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results or events to vary is contained in the Appendix to this presentation and in the Company’s SEC filings.
 
 

 
J. H. Miller
P. Farr
W. H. Spence
2
Agenda
First Quarter 2007 Earnings and
Review of Longer-Term Earnings and Outlook
First Quarter Operating Results,
2007 Forecast and Financial
Overview
Operational Review 
Q&A
 
 

 
Solid First Quarter Results
Earnings from Ongoing Operations
Per
share
3
Note:  See Appendix for the reconciliation of reported earnings and earnings from ongoing operations.
Per
share
Reported Earnings
 
 

 
Forecast
4
 
*
 
 
*  Midpoint of $2.30 to $2.40 earnings forecast.
** Earnings from ongoing operations – See Appendix for the per share reconciliation of reported earnings and earnings from 
    ongoing operations
Strong Long-Term Earnings Growth
 
 

 
 
1st Quarter
 
2007
2006
Variance
Supply
$0.32
$0.32
  $    -
Pennsylvania Delivery
  0.15
  0.15
        -
International Delivery
  0.18
  0.21
    (0.03)
    Total
$0.65
$0.68
  $(0.03)
       
(Dollars per Share)
5
Note: See Appendix for the per share reconciliation of reported earnings and earnings from ongoing operations.
Ongoing Earnings Overview
 
 

 
 
1st Quarter
Q1 2006 EPS – Ongoing Earnings
 
  $0.32
   Margins – East
   ($0.01)
 
   Margins – West
     (0.01)
 
   Synfuel
      0.03
 
   Income Taxes & Other
     (0.01)
 
       Total
 
    0.00
     
Q1 2007 EPS – Ongoing Earnings
 
  $0.32
(Dollars per Share)
6
Note: See Appendix for the per share reconciliation of reported earnings and earnings from ongoing operations.
Supply Segment
Earnings Drivers
 
 

 
 
1st Quarter
Q1 2006 EPS – Ongoing Earnings
 
  $0.15
   Delivery Margins
     $0.02
 
   O&M
      (0.01)
 
   Income Taxes & Other
      (0.01)
 
       Total
 
    0.00
     
Q1 2007 EPS – Ongoing Earnings
 
  $0.15
7
(Dollars per Share)
Note: See Appendix for the per share reconciliation of reported earnings and earnings from ongoing operations.
Pennsylvania Delivery Segment
Earnings Drivers
 
 

 
 
1st Quarter
Q1 2006 EPS – Ongoing Earnings
 
   $0.21
   Delivery Margins
     ($0.02)
 
   O&M
       (0.01)
 
   Income Taxes & Other
       (0.02)
 
   Foreign currency translation
        0.02
 
       Total
 
   (0.03)
Q1 2007 EPS – Ongoing Earnings
 
  $0.18
(Dollars per Share)
8
Note: See Appendix for the per share reconciliation of reported earnings and earnings from ongoing operations.
International Delivery Segment
Earnings Drivers
 
 

 
2007 Ongoing Earnings Forecast
EPS
$2.08
(Dollars per Share)
$2.25
$2.30
to
 $2.40
9
Note:  See Appendix for the per share reconciliation of reported earnings and earnings from ongoing operations.
 
 

 
$2.25
Energy
Margins
$0.22
International
Delivery
Margins
$0.07
U.K.
Liquidations
($0.07)
O&M
($0.03)
Depreciation
($0.05)
Income Taxes
 & Other
($0.04)
$2.35*
(Dollars per Share)
10
*Midpoint of forecast
Note:  See Appendix for the reconciliation of reported earnings and earnings from ongoing operations.
2007 Ongoing Earnings Contributions
 
 

 
Millions
11
Note:  See Appendix for the reconciliation of cash flow measures.
Cash Flow Forecast
 
 

 
$/share
Annualized
Dividend Payout Ratio Greater than
50% after 2006 
12
*Annualized rate based on quarterly dividend declared in February 2007.
 
 

 
13
Operational Update
Scrubbers expected to be completed on
schedule and on budget
Generation uprates remain on schedule
PUC action expected shortly regarding PPL
Electric Utilities’ POLR transition proposal
PPL EU filed for $83.6 million rate increase
Continued strength of customer service at
delivery businesses
Divestitures of Latin American and
telecommunications businesses
 
 

 
$1,675
$1,818
$1,845
$1,984
$2,748
Supply Margins
(Millions)
14
Key Drivers of Margin Growth
 
 

 
Existing Constraint
Constrained Region
Montour
Brunner Island
Holtwood
Wallenpaupack
Martins Creek
Keystone
Conemaugh
Safe Harbor
Lower Mt. Bethel
PA Combustion Turbines
Susquehanna
Constrained Region
PJM Projected
Constrained Region
Beginning in 2009
15
Source:  Map developed based on PJM RPM
              Planning Period Parameters.
Growing Constrained Region in PJM
Increases Value of PPL Generation

 

 
 

 
EAST
PJM
On-Peak
Off-Peak
ATC(2)
WEST
Mid-Columbia
On-Peak
Off-Peak
ATC(2)
GAS
NYMEX Price(3)
(1) Market prices based on the average of broker quotes as of 3/30/2007.
(2) 24-hour average.
(3) NYMEX forward gas price on 3/30/2007.
(4) Prices at 12/2005 when 2010 forecast of $3.50 was developed.
A-1
2010
Actual
Forward (1)
2006
2007
2008
2010
         $62                      $76                        $79                       $73                    $72
         $37                      $47                        $49                      $48                     $48
         $51                      $61                        $63                      $60                     $59
        $50                      $56                         $68                       $65
        $39                      $43                         $54                       $52
        $45                      $50                         $62                       $59
        $7.25                  $8.24                      $8.70                   $7.98                $8.00
 
At 12/05 (4)
Market Prices
 
 

 
A-2
 
2007
2008
2009
Electricity Sales
     
  East
 96%
100%
 97%
  West
100%
100%
 77%
      Total
 97%
100%
 94%
Coal
     
   East
 96%
 82%
 74%
   West
100%
100%
 78%
      Total
 97%
 87%
 75%
Current Hedge Positions - Electricity and Fuel
 
 

 
 
 
 

 
n
In 2007, 94% of our owned generation output
is expected to be produced at a fuel cost of
approximately $16/MWh or less.
PPL Supply Business Overview
Production GWh
A-4
Gas/Oil
32%
Coal
39%
Nuclear
18%
Hydro
8%
QFs 3%
Installed Capacity MW
Gas/Oil
6%
Coal
56%
Nuclear
30%
Hydro
8%
 
 

 
 Proactive Coal Supply Management
Supports Growth in Margins
Projected 2007 Coal Supply
A-5
Central PA
17%
PRB
 6%
Montana
Mine-mouth
21%
Central
Appalachia
11%
Southwest PA
45%
Supply region diversity
Fleet trains (1600 cars)
Average delivered costs
4%-5% annual
increase
2006 to 2010

PPL enters into a sales contract to deliver 100 MWs per hour ATC from January
through June 2007 for $75/MWh. This contract receives accrual accounting.
On October 1, 2006, PPL enters into a corresponding forward purchase at
$65/Mwh to “lock in” a gross margin of $10/MWh.
Assumed market prices at the end of each quarter:
                                        Q4 2006                $68/MWh
                                        Q1 2007                $64/MWh
                                        Q2 2007                $65/MWh
As the power is sold PPL will recognize $10/MWh and any mark-to-market gain or
loss will reverse. 

 
A-7
Key Drivers/Challenges Through 2010
Increased prices for POLR sales
Expiration of supply contracts remarketed at
current forward prices
Power plant uprates
Net economic benefits from the installation of
scrubbers at the Montour and Brunner Island
coal-fired power plants
Increased fuel and O&M costs
Loss of synfuel tax credits and increased
replacement coal costs
Cost of compliance with evolving environmental
regulation
 
 

 
A-8
Increasing Prices Under the POLR Contract
 
 

 
Montour Unit #2 Absorber
A-9
In-Service Dates
Montour 1
  Q1-08
Montour 2
  Q2-08
Brunner Island 3
  Q4-08
Brunner Island 1 & 2
  Q2-09
Scrubbers Expected to be Completed
on Budget and on Schedule
 
 

 
A-10
PPL Proposal to Transition to
Competitive Electricity Markets
Conduct procurements for 2010 POLR supply in
March and September of 2007, 2008 and 2009
Reduce the risk of customer exposure to price
spikes in wholesale markets
PUC approval would remove risk for PPL Electric
Utilities by ensuring a pre-approved process is in
place to reflect market prices in customer rates
PUC action expected in the first half of 2007
 
 

 
Amount of distribution revenue increase request
$83.6 million
% Total revenue increase
    2.7%
% Distribution revenue increase
   13%
 
12/31/2006
Proposed
Distribution rate base
      $1,925 million
       $2,023 million
Rate of return on rate base
           6.62%
           8.36%
Common equity
         42.6%
         43.1%
Return on equity
           7.32%
         11.50%
A-11
Sensitivity: 1% change in ROE = $16.0 million
PPL Electric Utilities
Distribution Rate Case Facts
 
 

 
(Millions of Dollars)
A-12
 
  2006 
  2007
  2008
  2009
  2010
Cash from Operations
$1,758
$1,642
$1,779
$1,679
$2,082
Increase/(Decrease) in cash due to:
         
   Transition Bond Repayment
   (282)
   (294)
   (310)
     -
    -
   Capital Expenditures
(1,394)
(1,732)
(1,397)
(1,212)
(1,168)
   Other Investing Activities-net
      85
    130
      19
       (2)
      34
Free Cash Flow before Dividends
  $167
 $(254)
    $91
  $465
  $948
           
Reconciliation of Cash from Operations
to Free Cash Flow before Dividends
 
 

 
Millions
$1,394
$1,168
$1,271
$1,212
$1,397
$811
$1,732
A-13
Capital Expenditures by Segment
 
 

 
A-14
(Millions of Dollars)
Reconciliation of First Quarter Reported
Earnings and Earnings from Ongoing Operations
 
 

 
A-15
(Dollars Per Share)
Reconciliation of First Quarter Reported Earnings
and Earnings from Ongoing Operations
 
 

 
A-16
Reconciliation of PPL’s Reported Earnings and
Earnings from Ongoing Operations
 
 

 
 
 

 
 
 

 
Statements contained in this presentation, including statements with respect to future earnings, energy prices, margins and sales, marketing performance, regulatory action, growth, rates, revenues, expenses, cash flows, cash from
operations, dividends, credit profile, business dispositions, financing, capital additions and expenditures, and
generating capacity and availability, are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws.
Although PPL Corporation believes that the expectations and assumptions reflected in these forward-looking
statements are reasonable, these statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may
differ materially from the results discussed in the statements. The following are among the important factors that could
cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements:  market demand and prices for energy,
capacity and fuel; market prices for crude oil and the potential impact on synthetic fuel operations, synthetic fuel
purchases from third parties and the phase-out of synthetic fuel credits; weather conditions affecting generation
production, customer energy usage and operating costs; competition in retail and wholesale power markets; liquidity of
wholesale power markets; the effect of any business or industry restructuring; the profitability and liquidity, including
access to capital markets and credit facilities, of PPL Corporation and its subsidiaries; new accounting requirements
or new interpretations or applications of existing requirements; operation and availability of existing generation
facilities and operating costs; transmission and distribution system conditions and operating costs; current and future
environmental conditions and requirements and the related costs of compliance, including environmental capital
expenditures and emission allowance and other expenses; significant delays in the planned installation of pollution
control equipment at certain coal-fired generating units in Pennsylvania because of weather conditions, contractor
performance or other reasons; market prices of commodity inputs for ongoing capital expenditures; collective labor
bargaining negotiations; development of new projects, markets and technologies; performance of new ventures; asset
acquisitions and dispositions; disposition proceeds; political, regulatory or economic conditions in states, regions or
countries where PPL Corporation or its subsidiaries conduct business; any impact of  hurricanes or other severe
weather on PPL Corporation’s business, including any impact on fuel prices; receipt of necessary governmental
permits, approvals and rate relief; new state, federal or foreign legislation, including new tax legislation; state, federal
and foreign regulatory developments; the impact of any state, federal or foreign investigations applicable to PPL
Corporation and its subsidiaries and the energy industry; capital markets conditions, including changes in interest
rates, and decisions regarding capital structure; stock price performance of PPL Corporation; the market prices of
equity securities and the impact on pension costs and resultant cash funding requirements for defined benefit pension
plans; securities and credit ratings; foreign currency exchange rates; the outcome of litigation against PPL Corporation
and its subsidiaries; potential effects of threatened or actual terrorism or war or other hostilities; and the commitments
and liabilities of PPL Corporation and its subsidiaries. Any such forward-looking statements should be considered in
light of such important factors and in conjunction with PPL Corporation’s Form 10-K and other reports on file with the
Securities and Exchange Commission.
A-19
Forward-Looking Information Statement
 
 

 
A-20
“Earnings from ongoing operations” excludes the impact of special items. Special items include charges, credits or gains that are unusual or non-recurring and the mark-to-market impact of energy-related, non-trading
economic hedges. The mark-to-market impact of these hedges is economically neutral to the company in that
offsetting gains or losses on underlying accrual positions will be recognized as energy is delivered over the
terms of the contracts. Earnings from ongoing operations should not be considered as an alternative to reported
earnings, or net income, which is an indicator of operating performance determined in accordance with generally
accepted accounting principles (GAAP). PPL believes that earnings from ongoing operations, although a
non-GAAP measure, is also useful and meaningful to investors because it provides them with PPL’s underlying
earnings performance as another criterion in making their investment decisions. PPL’s management also uses
earnings from ongoing operations in measuring certain corporate performance goals. Other companies may use
different measures to present financial performance.
“Free cash flow before dividends” is derived by deducting capital expenditures and other investing activities-net, as well as the repayment of transition bonds, from cash flow from operations.  Free cash flow before dividends
should not be considered as an alternative to cash flow from operations, which is determined in accordance with
GAAP. PPL believes that free cash flow before dividends, although a non-GAAP measure, is an important
measure to both management and investors since it is an indicator of the company’s ability to sustain operations
and growth without additional outside financing beyond the requirement to fund maturing debt obligations. Other
companies may calculate free cash flow before dividends in a different manner.
Definitions of Financial Measures