<DOCUMENT>
<TYPE>EX-99
<SEQUENCE>6
<FILENAME>ex_a4.txt
<DESCRIPTION>EXHIBIT A-4
<TEXT>
Exhibit A-4
MOBILE ENERGY SERVICES COMPANY, L.L.C.
Assumptions to Curtailed Operations Case:
All assumptions are the same as the Current Operations Case except:
Revenues:
Sappi demand is at current levels in 2001 but the Paper Mill is assumed
to close as of January 1, 2002.
KC demand is at current levels in 2001 and reduces to 1,207,472 mmbtu
of steam and 379,691 MWh of energy in 2002 due to capital projects
undertaken by KC designed to make the Tissue Mill more energy efficient
and a reduction in production.
No grid sales are realized except in 2001.
Fuel Expenses:
MESC serves the KC Tissue Mill by using only the No. 8 Power Boiler
fueled solely by natural gas.
No biomass or coal costs are assumed to be used as fuel.
O&M and Capital Expenditures:
MESC reduces its O&M costs through (i) no longer operating the No. 7
solid fuel Power Boiler and (ii) additional staff reductions made by
OEC.
Capital expenditures are reduced due to MESC operating the No. 8 Power
Boiler.
Current Operations Case (shown for ease of reference):
Revenues:
Pricing will be based upon the Existing ESA for the Paper and Tissue
Mills.
No Cogen Facility will be developed.
No Revenues will be generated from services provided to the Pulp Mill.
Annual Demand Levels will be based upon current usage levels, which are
as follows:
KC Tissue Mill
Steam 1,732,451 MMBtu
Energy 369,529 MwH
Sappi Paper Mill
Steam 3,142,366 MMBtu
Energy 201,973 MwH
$224,000 of grid sales are realized in 2001 which grows 3% yearly.
Fuel Expenses:
MESC will serve KC and Sappi using Nos. 7 and 8 Power Boilers only.
Gasprices for January 2001 approximates actual costs and prices for
February through December 2001 are based upon projected gas prices for
each month.
Gas prices for 2002 was assumed to be $4.92 per MMBtu and escalates at
3% annually thereafter.
Coal was assumed to be $1.41 in 2001 and escalates at 3% annually
thereafter.
Biomass was assumed to be $1.28 in 2001 and escalates at 3% annually
thereafter.
Purchased power was assumed to be $40.00 per MwH in 2001and escalates
at 3% annually thereafter.
There are no reliability expenses included in the attached projections.
O&M and Capital Expenditures:
MESC assumes reduction in its O&M costs as a result of OEC lowering the
labor cost, including staff reductions, as a as a result of negotiated
labor contacts, and staff reductions as a result of those negotiations.
2001 O&M was $21,263,000, which included $3,300,000 of professional
fees. 2002 O&M is $15,247,000 and at 3% annually thereafter.
Capital Expenditures are $2,468,000 in 2001, $2,348,000 in 2002 and
escalates at 3% annualy thereafter.
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
MESC Projected Statement of Operations - Curtailed Demand Case
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
Income Statement Summary 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REVENUES
"In-The-Fence"
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Electricity $ 34,316 $ 28,336 $ 29,186 $ 30,062 $ 30,964 $ 31,893 $ 32,849 $ 33,835
Steam 41,013 18,614 19,172 19,747 20,340 20,950 21,579 22,226
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "In-The-Fence" 75,328 46,950 48,359 49,809 51,304 52,843 54,428 56,061
"Over-The-Fence"
Electricity 224 - - - - - - -
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "Over-The-Fence" 224 - - - - - - -
Pulpco - - - - - - - -
KC Make-Up Payment 14,763 - - - - - - -
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Revenues $ 90,315 $ 46,950 $ 48,359 $ 49,809 $ 51,304 $ 52,843 $ 54,428 $ 56,061
EXPENSES
Fuel
Fuel - CT $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Natural Gas - Existing Plant 33,473 33,079 34,072 35,094 36,147 37,231 38,348 39,499
Biomass 3,970 - - - - - - -
Coal 5,934 - - - - - - -
Reliability - Back-Up Cost - - - - - - - -
Reliability - Purchased Steam - - - - - - - -
Secondary Dispatch Net Cost - - - - - - - -
Purchased Power Cost - 527 543 559 576 593 611 629
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Fuel 43,376 33,607 34,615 35,653 36,723 37,824 38,959 40,128
O &M - MESC 21,263 10,442 10,755 11,077 11,410 11,752 12,105 12,468
Cogen Expenses - - - - - - - -
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Expenses 64,639 44,048 45,370 46,731 48,133 49,576 51,064 52,596
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EBITDA $ 25,676 $ 2,902 $ 2,989 $ 3,079 $ 3,171 $ 3,266 $ 3,364 $ 3,465
==============================================================================================
Interest Expense
Cogen Interest - - - - - - - -
New Debt Interest - - - - - - - -
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Interest Expense - - - - - - - -
EBTDA $ 25,676 $ 2,902 $ 2,989 $ 3,079 $ 3,171 $ 3,266 $ 3,364 $ 3,465
==============================================================================================
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
MESC Projected Statement of Operations - Curtailed Demand Case
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
Income Statement Summary 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REVENUES
"In-The-Fence"
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Electricity $ 34,850 $ 35,895 $ 36,972 $ 38,081 $ 39,224 $ 40,401 $ 41,613
Steam 22,893 23,579 24,287 25,015 25,766 26,539 27,335
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "In-The-Fence" 57,743 59,475 61,259 63,097 64,990 66,940 68,948
"Over-The-Fence"
Electricity - - - - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "Over-The-Fence" - - - - - - -
Pulpco - - - - - - -
KC Make-Up Payment - - - - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Revenues $ 57,743 $ 59,475 $ 61,259 $ 63,097 $ 64,990 $ 66,940 $ 68,948
EXPENSES
Fuel
Fuel - CT $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Natural Gas - Existing Plant 40,684 41,904 43,161 44,456 45,790 47,163 48,578
Biomass - - - - - - -
Coal - - - - - - -
Reliability - Back-Up Cost - - - - - - -
Reliability - Purchased Steam - - - - - - -
Secondary Dispatch Net Cost - - - - - - -
Purchased Power Cost 648 668 688 708 730 751 774
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Fuel 41,332 42,572 43,849 45,164 46,519 47,915 49,352
O &M - MESC 12,842 13,227 13,624 14,033 14,454 14,887 15,334
Cogen Expenses - - - - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Expenses 54,174 55,799 57,473 59,197 60,973 62,802 64,686
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EBITDA $ 3,569 $ 3,676 $ 3,786 $ 3,900 $ 4,017 $ 4,138 $ 4,262
====================================================================================
Interest Expense
Cogen Interest - - - - - - -
New Debt Interest - - - - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Interest Expense - - - - - - -
EBTDA $ 3,569 $ 3,676 $ 3,786 $ 3,900 $ 4,017 $ 4,138 $ 4,262
====================================================================================
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
MESC Projected Statement of Operations - Curtailed Demand Case
Income Statement Summary 2016 2017 2018 2019
------------------------
-------------------------------------------
REVENUES
"In-The-Fence"
Electricity $ 42,861 $ 44,147 $ 45,471 $ 46,835
Steam 28,155 29,000 29,870 30,766
--------------------------------------------
Total "In-The-Fence" 71,016 73,147 75,341 77,601
"Over-The-Fence"
Electricity - - - -
--------------------------------------------
Total "Over-The-Fence" - - - -
Pulpco - - - -
KC Make-Up Payment - - - -
--------------------------------------------
Total Revenues $ 71,016 $ 73,147 $ 75,341 $ 77,601
EXPENSES
Fuel
Fuel - CT $ - $ - $ - $ -
Natural Gas - Existing Plant 50,036 51,537 53,083 54,675
Biomass - - - -
Coal - - - -
Reliability - Back-Up Cost - - - -
Reliability - Purchased Steam - - - -
Secondary Dispatch Net Cost - - - -
Purchased Power Cost 797 821 846 871
--------------------------------------------
Total Fuel 50,833 52,358 53,929 55,546
O &M - MESC 15,794 16,268 16,756 17,258
Cogen Expenses - - - -
--------------------------------------------
Total Expenses 66,627 68,625 70,684 72,805
--------------------------------------------
EBITDA $ 4,390 $ 4,521 $ 4,657 $ 4,797
============================================
Interest Expense
Cogen Interest - - - -
New Debt Interest - - - -
--------------------------------------------
Total Interest Expense - - - -
EBTDA $ 4,390 $ 4,521 $ 4,657 $ 4,797
============================================
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
MESC Projected Cash Flow Statement - Curtailed Demand Case
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
EBITDA $ 25,676 $ 2,902 $ 2,989 $ 3,079 $ 3,171 $ 3,266 $ 3,364 $ 3,465 $ 3,569
Less: MESC Capital Expenditures 2,280 1,421 1,464 1,508 1,553 1,600 1,648 1,697 1,748
Less: Cogen Capital Expenditures 188 - - - - - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash Flow After CapEx 23,209 1,481 1,525 1,571 1,618 1,666 1,716 1,768 1,821
Less: Taxes $ 4,877 $ 566 $ 583 $ 601 $ 619 $ 637 $ 657 $ 676 $ 697
Cash Flow After Tax 18,332 914 942 970 999 1,029 1,060 1,092 1,124
Plus: Other Income (1) 9,604 - - - - - - - -
Less: Miscellaneous (2) (11,024) - - - - - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1,420) - - - - - - - -
Plus: Cogen Debt Issuance - - - - - - - - -
Less: Cogen Debt Service - - - - - - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash Flow After Cogen Debt
Issue / Payment 16,912 914 942 970 999 1,029 1,060 1,092 1,124
New Debt - Cash Interest Expense - - - - - - - - -
New Debt - Principal Amortization - - - - - - - - -
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total New Debt Service - - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow After New Debt Payment 16,912 914 942 970 999 1,029 1,060 1,092 1,124
Present Value of Cash Flow $ 15,374 $ 756 $ 708 $ 662 $ 620 $ 581 $ 544 $ 509 $ 477
Present Value of Cash Flows @ 10% $ 23,612
Present Value of Terminal EBITDA
Multiple $ 4,314
Present Value of Excess Cash
as of 12/31/2001 $ 9,668
NPV @ 10% $ 37,594
Present Value of Cash Flow $ 15,100 $ 729 $ 670 $ 616 $ 567 $ 521 $ 479 $ 441 $ 405
Present Value of Cash Flows @ 12% $ 22,162
Present Value of Terminal EBITDA
Multiple $ 3,063
Present Value of Excess Cash as
of 12/31/2001 $ 9,496
NPV @ 12% $ 34,720
Dividends to Bondholders - - - - - - - - -
Beginning Cash Balance $ 13,635 $ 30,547 $ 31,461 $ 32,403 $ 33,373 $ 34,372 $ 35,401 $ 36,461 $ 37,552
Change in Cash 16,912 914 942 970 999 1,029 1,060 1,092 1,124
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ending Cash Balance 30,547 31,461 32,403 33,373 34,372 35,401 36,461 37,552 38,677
==========================================================================================
Minimum Cash Balance $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000
</TABLE>
(1) Includes interest income and the sale of the HSRG.
(2) Includes payment of certain claims and changes in
net working capital.
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
MESC Projected Cash Flow Statement - Curtailed Demand Case
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
EBITDA $ 3,676 $ 3,786 $ 3,900 $ 4,017 $ 4,138 $ 4,262 $ 4,390 $ 4,521 $ 4,657 $ 4,797
Less: MESC Capital Expenditures 1,801 1,855 1,910 1,968 2,027 2,087 2,150 2,214 2,281 2,349
Less: Cogen Capital Expenditures - - - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash Flow After CapEx 1,876 1,932 1,990 2,049 2,111 2,174 2,240 2,307 2,376 2,447
Less: Taxes $ 717 $ 739 $ 761 $ 784 $ 807 $ 832 $ 857 $ 882 $ 909 $ 936
Cash Flow After Tax 1,158 1,193 1,229 1,266 1,304 1,343 1,383 1,424 1,467 1,511
Plus: Other Income (1) - - - - - - - - - -
Less: Miscellaneous (2) - - - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- - - - - - - - - -
Plus: Cogen Debt Issuance - - - - - - - - - -
Less: Cogen Debt Service - - - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash Flow After Cogen Debt
Issue / Payment 1,158 1,193 1,229 1,266 1,304 1,343 1,383 1,424 1,467 1,511
New Debt - Cash Interest Expense - - - - - - - - - -
New Debt - Principal Amortization - - - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total New Debt Service - - - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow After New Debt Payment 1,158 1,193 1,229 1,266 1,304 1,343 1,383 1,424 1,467 1,511
Present Value of Cash Flow $ 447 $ 418 $ 392 $ 367 $ 343 $ 321 $ 301 $ 282 $ 264 $ 247
Present Value of Cash Flows @ 10%
Present Value of Terminal EBITDA
Multiple
Present Value of Excess Cash
as of 12/31/2001
NPV @ 10%
Present Value of Cash Flow $ 373 $ 343 $ 315 $ 290 $ 267 $ 245 $ 226 $ 207 $ 191 $ 175
Present Value of Cash Flows @ 12%
Present Value of Terminal EBITDA
Multiple
Present Value of Excess Cash as
of 12/31/2001
NPV @ 12%
Dividends to Bondholders - - - - - - - - - -
Beginning Cash Balance $ 38,677 $ 39,835 $ 41,028 $ 42,256 $ 43,522 $ 44,826 $ 46,168 $ 47,551 $ 48,976 $ 50,443
Change in Cash 1,158 1,193 1,229 1,266 1,304 1,343 1,383 1,424 1,467 1,511
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ending Cash Balance 39,835 41,028 42,256 43,522 44,826 46,168 47,551 48,976 50,443 51,954
=================================================================================================
Minimum Cash Balance $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000 $ 3,000
(1) Includes interest income and the sale of the HSRG.
(2) Includes payment of certain claims and changes in
net working capital.
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
Energy Demand and Revenues - Curtailed Demand Case
Demand 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Electricity (MWh)
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Tissue 369,529 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691
Paper 201,973 - - - - - - -
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "In-The-Fence" Demand 571,502 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691
Available for Resale - "Over-The-Fence"
Market - Cogen - - - - - - - -
Market - MESC - - - - - - - -
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "Over-The-Fence" Demand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Power Demand 571,502 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691
Steam (mmbtu)
Tissue 1,732,451 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472
Paper 3,142,366 - - - - - - -
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Steam Demand 4,874,817 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472
Revenues
Electricity
Tissue $ 22,171 $ 28,336 $ 29,186 $ 30,062 $ 30,964 $ 31,893 $ 32,849 $ 33,835
Paper 12,145 - - - - - - -
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "In-The-Fence" Revenues $ 34,316 $ 28,336 $ 29,186 $ 30,062 $ 30,964 $ 31,893 $ 32,849 $ 33,835
Available for Resale - "Over-The-Fence"
Market - Cogen - - - - - - - -
Market - MESC 224 - - - - - - -
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "Over-The-Fence" Revenues $ 224 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Total Power Revenues $ 34,540 $ 28,336 $ 29,186 $ 30,062 $ 30,964 $ 31,893 $ 32,849 $ 33,835
Steam
Tissue $ 14,966 $ 18,614 $ 19,172 $ 19,747 $ 20,340 $ 20,950 $ 21,579 $ 22,226
Paper 26,047 - - - - - - -
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Steam Revenues $ 41,013 $ 18,614 $ 19,172 $ 19,747 $ 20,340 $ 20,950 $ 21,579 $ 22,226
Pulpco Revenue $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
Energy Demand and Revenues - Curtailed Demand Case
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
Demand 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Electricity (MWh)
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Tissue 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691
Paper - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "In-The-Fence" Demand 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691
Available for Resale-"Over-The-Fence"
Market - Cogen - - - - - - - -
Market - MESC - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "Over-The-Fence" Demand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Power Demand 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691
Steam (mmbtu)
Tissue 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472
Paper - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Steam Demand 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472
Revenues
Electricity
Tissue $ 34,850 $ 35,895 $ 36,972 $ 38,081 $ 39,224 $ 40,401 $ 41,613 $ 42,861
Paper - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "In-The-Fence" Revenues $ 34,850 $ 35,895 $ 36,972 $ 38,081 $ 39,224 $ 40,401 $ 41,613 $ 42,861
Available for Resale-"Over-The-Fence"
Market - Cogen - - - - - - - -
Market - MESC - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total "Over-The-Fence" Revenues $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Total Power Revenues $ 34,850 $ 35,895 $ 36,972 $ 38,081 $ 39,224 $ 40,401 $ 41,613 $ 42,861
Steam
Tissue $ 22,893 $ 23,579 $ 24,287 $ 25,015 $ 25,766 $ 26,539 $ 27,335 $ 28,155
Paper - - - - - - - -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Steam Revenues $ 22,893 $ 23,579 $ 24,287 $ 25,015 $ 25,766 $ 26,539 $ 27,335 $ 28,155
Pulpco Revenue $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
Energy Demand and Revenues - Curtailed Demand Case
Demand 2017 2018 2019
------
--------------------------------
Electricity (MWh)
Tissue 379,691 379,691 379,691
Paper - - -
---------------------------------
Total "In-The-Fence" Demand 379,691 379,691 379,691
Available for Resale-"Over-The-Fence"
Market - Cogen - - -
Market - MESC - - -
---------------------------------
Total "Over-The-Fence" Demand 0 0 0
Total Power Demand 379,691 379,691 379,691
Steam (mmbtu)
Tissue 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472
Paper - - -
---------------------------------
Total Steam Demand 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472
Revenues
Electricity
Tissue $ 44,147 $ 45,471 $ 46,835
Paper - - -
---------------------------------
Total "In-The-Fence" Revenues $ 44,147 $ 45,471 $ 46,835
Available for Resale-"Over-The-Fence"
Market - Cogen - - -
Market - MESC - - -
---------------------------------
Total "Over-The-Fence" Revenues $ - $ - $ -
Total Power Revenues $ 44,147 $ 45,471 $ 46,835
Steam
Tissue $ 29,000 $ 29,870 $ 30,766
Paper - - -
---------------------------------
Total Steam Revenues $ 29,000 $ 29,870 $ 30,766
Pulpco Revenue $ - $ - $ -
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
MESC Fuel Schedule - Curtailed Demand Case
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Fuel - CT $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Natural Gas - Existing Plant 33,473 33,079 34,072 35,094 36,147 37,231 38,348 39,499 40,684
Biomass 3,970 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coal 5,934 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reliability - Back-Up Cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reliability - Purchased Steam 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Secondary Dispatch Net Cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Purchased Power Cost 0 527 543 559 576 593 611 629 648
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Fuel Cost $ 43,376 $ 33,607 $ 34,615 $ 35,653 $ 36,723 $ 37,824 $ 38,959 $ 40,128 $ 41,332
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
MESC Fuel Schedule - Curtailed Demand Case
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Fuel - CT $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Natural Gas - Existing Plant 41,904 43,161 44,456 45,790 47,163 48,578 50,036 51,537 53,083 54,675
Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reliability - Back-Up Cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reliability - Purchased Steam 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Secondary Dispatch Net Cost 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Purchased Power Cost 668 688 708 730 751 774 797 821 846 871
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Fuel Cost $ 42,572 $ 43,849 $ 45,164 $ 46,519 $ 47,915 $ 49,352 $ 50,833 $ 52,358 $ 53,929 $ 55,546
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
Revenue Unit Prices - Curtailed Demand Case
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenue - Unit Prices
Electric ($ / MWh)
Contract
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Tissue 60.00 74.63 76.87 79.17 81.55 84.00 86.52 89.11 91.79 94.54 97.37 100.30 103.30
Paper 60.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Steam ($ / mmbtu)
Contract
Tissue 8.64 15.42 15.88 16.35 16.84 17.35 17.87 18.41 18.96 19.53 20.11 20.72 21.34
Paper 8.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
Revenue Unit Prices - Curtailed Demand Case
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
----------------------------------------------
Revenue - Unit Prices
Electric ($ / MWh)
Contract
Tissue 106.40 109.60 112.88 116.27 119.76 123.35
Paper 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Steam ($ / mmbtu)
Contract
Tissue 21.98 22.64 23.32 24.02 24.74 25.48
Paper 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
Steam & Power Rate Calculation Schedule - Curtailed Demand Case
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steam & Power Contract Price Calculation
Steam Demand (mmbtu)
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Tissue 1,732,451 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472
Paper 3,142,366 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Electric (MHh)
Tissue 369,529 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691
Paper 201,973 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Fuel Cost $43,376 $33,607 $34,615 $35,653 $36,723 $37,824 $38,959 $40,128 $41,332
Tissue Revenue
Steam $ 4,301 $ 6,680 $ 6,881 $ 7,087 $ 7,300 $ 7,519 $ 7,744 $ 7,977 $ 8,216
Power 6,956 10,656 10,975 11,304 11,644 11,993 12,353 12,723 13,105
Fuel 21,254 16,467 16,961 17,470 17,994 18,534 19,090 19,663 20,253
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total $ 32,512 $ 33,803 $ 34,817 $ 35,862 $ 36,938 $ 38,046 $ 39,187 $ 40,363 $ 41,574
Contract Prices Tissue
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steam ($/mmbtu) $ 8.64 $ 15.42 $ 15.88 $ 16.35 $ 16.84 $ 17.35 $ 17.87 $ 18.41 $ 18.96
Power ($/MWh) $ 60.00 $ 74.63 $ 76.87 $ 79.17 $ 81.55 $ 84.00 $ 86.52 $ 89.11 $ 91.79
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Paper Revenue
Steam $ 9,958 $ 9,571 $ 9,858 $ 10,153 $ 10,458 $ 10,772 $ 11,095 $ 11,428 $ 11,771
Power 4,950 3,735 3,847 3,963 4,082 4,204 4,330 4,460 4,594
Fuel 22,122 17,139 17,653 18,183 18,729 19,290 19,869 20,465 21,079
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total $ 37,031 $ 30,445 $ 31,359 $ 32,299 $ 33,268 $ 34,266 $ 35,294 $ 36,353 $ 37,444
Contract Prices Paper
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steam ($/mmbtu) $ 8.29 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Power ($/MWh) $ 60.13 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
Steam & Power Rate Calculation Schedule - Curtailed Demand Case
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steam & Power Contract Price Calculation
Steam Demand (mmbtu)
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Tissue 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472 1,207,472
Paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Electric (MHh)
Tissue 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691 379,691
Paper 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Fuel Cost $42,572 $43,849 $45,164 $46,519 $47,915 $49,352 $50,833 $52,358 $53,929 $55,546
Tissue Revenue
Steam $ 8,463 $ 8,716 $ 8,978 $ 9,247 $ 9,525 $ 9,810 $ 10,105 $ 10,408 $ 10,720 $ 11,042
Power 13,498 13,903 14,320 14,750 15,192 15,648 16,117 16,601 17,099 17,612
Fuel 20,860 21,486 22,131 22,794 23,478 24,183 24,908 25,655 26,425 27,218
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total $ 42,821 $ 44,105 $ 45,429 $ 46,791 $ 48,195 $ 49,641 $ 51,130 $ 52,664 $ 54,244 $ 55,871
Contract Prices Tissue
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steam ($/mmbtu) $ 19.53 $ 20.11 $ 20.72 $ 21.34 $ 21.98 $ 22.64 $ 23.32 $ 24.02 $ 24.74 $ 25.48
Power ($/MWh) $ 94.54 $ 97.37 $ 100.30 $ 103.30 $ 106.40 $ 109.60 $ 112.88 $ 116.27 $ 119.76 $ 123.35
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Paper Revenue
Steam $ 12,124 $ 12,487 $ 12,862 $ 13,248 $ 13,645 $ 14,055 $ 14,476 $ 14,911 $ 15,358 $ 15,819
Power 4,732 4,874 5,020 5,170 5,326 5,485 5,650 5,819 5,994 6,174
Fuel 21,712 22,363 23,034 23,725 24,437 25,170 25,925 26,702 27,504 28,329
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total $ 38,567 $ 39,724 $ 40,916 $ 42,143 $ 43,408 $ 44,710 $ 46,051 $ 47,433 $ 48,856 $ 50,321
Contract Prices Paper
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steam ($/mmbtu) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Power ($/MWh) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
O&M & Capital Expenditure Schedule - Curtailed Demand Case
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Total MESC O&M $ 21,263 $ 10,442 $ 10,755 $ 11,077 $ 11,410 $ 11,752 $ 12,105 $ 12,468 $ 12,842 $ 13,227 $ 13,624
Capital Expenditures
MESC $ 2,280 $ 1,421 $ 1,464 $ 1,508 $ 1,553 $ 1,600 $ 1,648 $ 1,697 $ 1,748 $ 1,801 $ 1,855
CT Construction - - - - - - - - - - -
CT Maintenance - - - - - - - - - - -
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 2,280 1,421 1,464 1,508 1,553 1,600 1,648 1,697 1,748 1,801 1,855
</TABLE>
<PAGE>
Mobile Energy Services Company, L.L.C.
Summary Financial Analysis
($ in thousands)
<TABLE>
<CAPTION>
O&M & Capital Expenditure Schedule - Curtailed Demand Case
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <C>
Total MESC O&M $ 14,033 $ 14,454 $ 14,887 $ 15,334 $ 15,794 $ 16,268 $ 16,756 $ 17,258
Capital Expenditures
MESC $ 1,910 $ 1,968 $ 2,027 $ 2,087 $ 2,150 $ 2,214 $ 2,281 $ 2,349
CT Construction - - - - - - - -
CT Maintenance - - - - - - - -
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 1,910 1,968 2,027 2,087 2,150 2,214 2,281 2,349
</TABLE>
</TEXT>
</DOCUMENT>