EX-99.C.9 5 y22908exv99wcw9.htm EX-99.C.9: PRESENTATION MATERIALS EX-99.C.9
 

Exhibit 99(c)(9)
Project K-2
Valuation analysis
March 10, 2006
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank AG, conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.
(A PASSION TO PERFORM)
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

 


 

Wall Street estimates
($ in millions, except per share data)
                         
    EPS estimates        
 
Analyst   Firm   2006      2007   
 
Joe Greff
  Bear, Stearns   $ 2.11     $ 3.21  
Larry Klatzkin
  Jefferies & Co.   $ 2.61     $ 2.63  
Bill Schmitt
  CIBC   $ 2.80     $ 3.90  
Steve Kent
  Goldman Sachs   $ 2.82     $ 3.52  
Marc Falcone
  Deutsche Bank   $ 3.40     NA
     
 
  Mean research estimate   $ 2.59     $ 3.32  
 
  K-2 management Upside Case   $ 2.78     $ 2.73  
     
Paradise Island EBITDA estimates
                         
Analyst   Firm   2006      2007   
 
Joe Greff
  Bear, Stearns   $ 206.8     $ 278.0  
Bill Schmitt
  CIBC   $ 193.0     $ 247.2  
     
 
  K-2 management Upside Case   $ 191.4     $ 230.6  
     
 
Note:   As of March 10, 2006
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

1


 

Stock performance comparison
2-year
Stock performance comparison (2-year)
(LINE GRAPH)
 
(a)   Group 1 includes MGM and HET
 
(b)   Group 2 includes HLT, MI, HOT and FS
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

2


 

Stock performance comparison
3-year
Stock performance comparison (3-year)
(LINE GRAPH)
 
(a)   Group 1 includes MGM and HET
 
(b)   Group 2 includes HLT, MI, HOT and FS
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

3


 

Stock performance comparison
5-year
Stock performance comparison (5-year)
(LINE GRAPH)
 
(a)   Group 1 includes MGM and HET
 
(b)   Group 2 includes HLT, MI, HOT and FS
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

4


 

Differences in key assumptions
§   Financing/transaction assumptions
    higher transaction costs
 
    ratio of debt to equity
 
    committed cost of debt – 9.40% vs. 7.50%
§   Operating assumptions
    cost synergies of $5 million
 
    10% upside on Atlantis EBITDA in 2006
    continued growth of inflated Atlantis EBITDA
§   Multiple assumptions
    multiple range reflects overall prospects for business
    Paradise Island land value
 
    franchise value
    application of terminal multiple to Mohegan Sun earnings
 
    discount rate assumptions
§   Risk factors considered
    final project costs for Phase III and the Palm
 
    CondoTel and related financing
 
    Morocco
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

5


 

Leveraged buyout analysis
Assumptions
§   4.5 year hold period (acquire as of 6/30/06; sell as of 12/31/10)
 
§   No cost synergies
 
§   Sponsor IRR threshold range of 18.0% — 20.0%
 
§   9.40% cost of committed debt
 
§   No minimum equity constraint
    debt financing ranges from 70.5% to 86.7% debt / total capitalization
§   10.0% promote
 
§   Exit EV/EBITDA range of 11.0 — 13.0x on 2010E EBITDA
    plus recurring equity earnings
§   Mohegan Sun excluded from 2010E EBITDA and valued based on discounted cash flows from 2011 – 2014
    $162.3MM
§   $76MM value of Reethi Rah Note
 
§   $40MM value of Resorts AC Note
 
§   $146MM of transaction fees, including bond breakage costs and stamp duty (does not include convertible costs)
Equity value per share
Base Case
                         
    Exit EV/EBITDA multiple
IRR   11.0x   12.0x   13.0x
18.0%
  $ 48.85     $ 52.30     $ 55.85  
20.0%
    48.10       51.30       54.60  
Upside Case
                         
    Exit EV/EBITDA multiple
IRR   11.0x   12.0x   13.0x
18.0%
  $ 55.80     $ 59.60     $ 63.30  
20.0%
    54.55       58.20       61.60  
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

6


 

Discounted cash flow
Assumptions
     
n
  4.5 year hold period (acquire as of 6/30/06; sell as of 12/31/10)
 
   
n
  No cost synergies
 
   
n
  Terminal Value based on 11.0 — 13.0x recurring 2010E EBITDA
 
   
 
  – plus recurring equity earnings
 
   
n
  Mohegan Sun excluded from 2010E EBITDA and valued based on discounted cash flows from 2011 – 2014
 
   
 
  – $162.3MM
 
   
n
  2010 valuation for certain non-EBITDA producing assets added to terminal value and discounted back
 
   
 
  – Reethi Rah Note
 
   
 
  – Resorts AC Note
 
   
 
  – Mohegan Sun – NPV of remaining life
 
   
n
  Assumes net debt of $662MM, 36.7MM of basic shares outstanding, 2.6MM options at an average exercise price of $37.41 and the dilutive effect of the 2.375% convertible bond
Equity value per share
                         
Base Case
 
    Exit EBITDA multiple
WACC   11.0x   12.0x   13.0x
9.5%
  $ 55.54     $ 60.80     $ 65.82  
10.5%
    52.58       57.88       62.73  
11.5%
    49.76       54.85       59.79  
                         
Upside Case
 
    Exit EBITDA multiple
WACC   11.0x   12.0x   13.0x
9.5%
  $ 64.92     $ 70.52     $ 76.12  
10.5%
    61.91       67.29       72.66  
11.5%
    59.04       64.21       69.37  
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

7


 

Precedent transactions
Selected lodging transactions
                                 
                    TEV / LTM   TEV / FY+1
Date announced   Target   Acquirer   Size ($MM)   EBITDA   EBITDA
Feb-06
  MeriStar Hospitality Corp   Blackstone Group   $ 2,519       13.5 x     12.8 x
Jan-06 (a)
  Fairmont Hotels & Resorts   Colony Capital / Kingdom Hotels     3,900     NA       15.8 x
Dec-05
  Hilton PLC   Hilton Hotels Corporation     5,710     NA       11.3 x
Nov-05
  Starwood portfolio   Host Marriott     4,040       12.6 x     11.2 x
Nov-05
  LaQuinta   Blackstone Group     3,400       14.2 x     12.6 x
Jun-05 (a)
  Wyndham International   Blackstone Group     3,240     NA       12.6 x
Oct-04 (a)
  Boca Resorts   Blackstone Group     1,184     NA       11.8 x
Feb-04 (a)
  KSL Recreation Corp   CNL Hospitality     2,160     NA       13.1 x
Apr-98
  Blackstone portfolio   Host Marriott     1,730     NA       10.5 x
Mar-98
  Bristol Hotel Co.   FelCor Suite Hotels     1,879       13.2 x     10.5 x
Feb-98
  Inter-Continental   Bass PLC     2,900       16.4 x     14.6 x
 
          Median       13.5 x     12.6x  
 
          Mean       14.0 x     12.4x  
Selected gaming transactions
                         
                    TEV / FY+1
Date announced   Target   Acquirer   Size ($MM)   EBITDA
Nov-04
  Argosy Gaming   Penn National Gaming   $ 2,200       8.5 x
Sep-04
  Harrah’s / Caesars 4 assets   Colony Capital     1,239       8.2 x
Jul-04 (a)
  Caesars Entertainment   Harrah’s Entertainment     9,440       8.5 x
Jun-04 (a)
  Mandalay Resort Group   MGM Mirage     7,750       9.5 x
Feb-04
  Coast Casinos   Boyd Gaming     1,280       7.4 x
Mar-00
  Mirage Resorts   MGM Grand     6,400       9.6 x
Apr-99
  Caesars World   Park Place Entertainment     3,000       7.5 x
 
          Median       8.5 x
 
          Mean       8.5 x
 
Source: Company filings; press releases
(a) Per JP Morgan analysis dated March 8, 2006
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

8


 

Purchase price multiple analysis
Base case
($ in millions, except per share data)
                                                                 
Current price
                  $ 68.80     As of 3/9/06                                
Share price
                  $ 63.00     $ 65.00     $ 67.00     $ 69.00     $ 71.00     $ 73.00  
Premium
                    (8.4 %)     (5.5 %)     (2.6 %)     0.3 %     3.2 %     6.1 %
Diluted shares
                    38.1       38.2       38.4       38.5       38.7       38.8  
 
                                                   
Equity value
                  $ 2,398.6     $ 2,485.2     $ 2,571.8     $ 2,658.4     $ 2,745.0     $ 2,831.6  
Plus: Net debt at 6/30/06
                  $ 662.0     $ 662.0     $ 662.0     $ 662.0     $ 662.0     $ 662.0  
 
                                                   
Enterprise value
                  $ 3,060.6     $ 3,147.2     $ 3,233.8     $ 3,320.4     $ 3,407.0     $ 3,493.6  
 
          EBITDA                                                  
EV/LTM 6/30/06
          $ 208.1       14.7 x     15.1 x     15.5 x     16.0 x     16.4 x     16.8 x
 
                                                               
Plus: Net debt at 12/31/07
                  $ 943.0     $ 943.0     $ 943.0     $ 943.0     $ 943.0     $ 943.0  
 
                                                   
Enterprise value
                  $ 3,341.6     $ 3,428.2     $ 3,514.8     $ 3,601.4     $ 3,688.0     $ 3,774.6  
 
          EBITDA                                                  
EV/2007E
          $ 255.6       13.1 x     13.4 x     13.8 x     14.1 x     14.4 x     14.8 x
 
                                                               
Plus: Net debt at 12/31/08
                  $ 775.0     $ 775.0     $ 775.0     $ 775.0     $ 775.0     $ 775.0  
 
                                                   
Enterprise value
                  $ 3,173.6     $ 3,260.2     $ 3,346.8     $ 3,433.4     $ 3,520.0     $ 3,606.6  
 
          EBITDA                                                  
EV/2008E
          $ 307.1       10.3 x     10.6 x     10.9 x     11.2 x     11.5 x     11.7 x
 
Note:   EBITDA includes recurring equity earnings and excludes stock based compensation. Excludes transaction costs of approximately $5 per share
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

9


 

Purchase price multiple analysis
Upside case
($ in millions, except per share data)
                                                                 
Current price
                  $ 68.80     As of 3/9/06                                
Share price
                  $ 63.00     $ 65.00     $ 67.00     $ 69.00     $ 71.00     $ 73.00  
Premium
                    (8.4 %)     (5.5 %)     (2.6 %)     0.3 %     3.2 %     6.1 %
Diluted shares
                    38.1       38.2       38.4       38.5       38.7       38.8  
 
                                                   
Equity value
                  $ 2,398.6     $ 2,485.2     $ 2,571.8     $ 2,658.4     $ 2,745.0     $ 2,831.6  
Plus: Net debt at 6/30/06
                  $ 662.0     $ 662.0     $ 662.0     $ 662.0     $ 662.0     $ 662.0  
 
                                                   
Enterprise value
                  $ 3,060.6     $ 3,147.2     $ 3,233.8     $ 3,320.4     $ 3,407.0     $ 3,493.6  
 
          EBITDA                                                  
EV/LTM 6/30/06
          $ 206.4       14.8 x     15.3 x     15.7 x     16.1 x     16.5 x     16.9 x
 
                                                               
Plus: Net debt at 12/31/07
                  $ 1,002.9     $ 1,002.9     $ 1,002.9     $ 1,002.9     $ 1,002.9     $ 1,002.9  
 
                                                   
Enterprise value
                  $ 3,401.5     $ 3,488.1     $ 3,574.7     $ 3,661.3     $ 3,747.9     $ 3,834.5  
 
          EBITDA                                                  
EV/2007E
          $ 253.1       13.4 x     13.8 x     14.1 x     14.5 x     14.8 x     15.1 x
 
                                                               
Plus: Net debt at 12/31/08
                  $ 747.8     $ 747.8     $ 747.8     $ 747.8     $ 747.8     $ 747.8  
 
                                                   
Enterprise value
                  $ 3,146.4     $ 3,233.0     $ 3,319.6     $ 3,406.2     $ 3,492.8     $ 3,579.4  
 
          EBITDA                                                  
EV/2008E
          $ 331.9       9.5 x     9.7 x     10.0 x     10.3 x     10.5 x     10.8 x
 
Note:   EBITDA includes recurring equity earnings and excludes stock based compensation. Excludes transaction costs of approximately $5 per share
(DEUTSCHE BANK LOGO)

10