EX-99.1(C)(5) 4 dex991c5.htm PRESENTATION OF COWEN AND COMPANY DATED JUNE 2, 2008 Presentation of Cowen and Company dated June 2, 2008
Valuation Discussion Materials –
June 2, 2008
Meeting with Financial Advisors to Tilman
J. Fertitta
Project Lasso
Exhibit 99.1(c)(5)


PROJECT LASSO
Pre-opening is typically an ongoing expense for a growth company.  However, it is not a $4.0 million ongoing expense for Lasso, given
the limited expected future new unit openings.  The projection model has $750,000 of pre-opening expense annually in future years,
and it is agreed that this is an ongoing expense.
Two recent transactions, OSI Restaurant Partners and RARE Hospitality International, are not comparable and did not have declining
unit openings and pre-opening expense in the relevant projection periods.  Both situations had projected continued new unit growth and
pre-opening expense consistent with historical levels.
For both of these companies, it is agreed that pre-opening is a recurring operating expense.
With Lasso’s pre-opening falling from $4.0 million in 2007 to a run-rate of $750,000 going forward, the correct ongoing pre-opening
expense to reflect the Company’s growth rate is $750,000.  It does not seem appropriate to penalize EBITDA with a level of pre-opening
expense that clearly does not reflect the current growth expectations.  As a result, $2.9 million of pre-opening for the March 31, 2008
LTM period should be added back to EBITDA.
Determination of EBITDA
Pre-opening
Expense
OSI Restaurant Partners New Unit Growth
RARE Hospitality Projected Pre-opening
(a)
Per OSI Restaurant Partners DEFM14A SEC filing dated April 3, 2007.
(b)
Per Wall Street research as of February 29, 2008.
(c)
Per RARE Hospitality International SC-TO-C SEC filing dated August 17, 2007.
Projected Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
OSI Restaurant Partners New Unit Growth
(a)
122
94
90
95
100
2005A
2006A
2007E
2008E
RARE Hospitality Projected Pre-opening
(b)
$7.5
$8.9
$10.2
$12.5
Darden
Post-integration
Outlook
(c)
:
Plan on "accelerating new restaurant growth
at both concepts"


PROJECT LASSO
It is agreed that the $4.5 million of non-recurring legal and litigation costs related to the stock-based compensation review should be
added
back
to
EBITDA.
After
further
discussions
with
management,
it
is
our
view
that
at
a
minimum
an
additional
$1.0
million
of
non-
recurring/unusual
legal
and
litigation
costs
for
2007
should
be
added
back
to
EBITDA,
which
is
a
conservative
assumption
for
the
excess
legal costs that Lasso incurred in 2007.
Determination of EBITDA and Enterprise Value
Non-recurring Legal Expense
Treatment of Cash in Enterprise Value
Enterprise value should be calculated using net debt, not total debt.  Adjusted cash is therefore $35.6 million as of March 31, 2008,
which excludes $10.0 million in mandatory cash that is physically held on premises at the Golden Nugget properties.  As a result, net
debt would be $849.0 million and enterprise value would be $1,195.0 million.


PROJECT LASSO
EBITDA Reconciliation and Transaction Summary
LTM EBITDA Reconciliation
(US$ in millions)
Equity and Enterprise Value Calculation
(US$ in millions, shares in thousands)
(a)
Includes
775,000
shares
of
restricted
stock
held
by
Tilman
J.
Fertitta
that
have
not
vested.
(b)
Excludes
$10.0
million
in
mandatory
cash
that
is
physically
held
on
premises
of
the
Golden
Nugget
properties
per
discussions  with
Lasso
management.
As of
12/31/07
03/31/08
Basic
Equity
Value:
Basic Shares Outstanding
(a)
16,145
16,145
Assumed Offer Price
21.00
$           
21.00
$           
Basic Equity Value
339.0
$           
339.0
$           
Fully-Diluted
Equity
Value:
Basic Equity Value
339.0
$           
339.0
$           
Value of Options
7.0
7.0
Fully-Diluted Equity Value
346.0
$          
346.0
$          
Enterprise
Value:
Fully-Diluted Equity Value
346.0
$           
346.0
$           
Plus: Debt Outstanding
888.7
884.6
Less: Cash
(b)
(29.6)
(35.6)
Net Debt
859.1
$          
849.0
$          
Fully-Diluted Enterprise Value
1,205.1
$       
1,195.0
$       
Multiple of EBITDA
6.3x
6.3x
LTM as of
12/31/07
03/31/08
Operating Income
111.4
$           
110.7
$           
Depreciation and Amortization
65.7
67.3
Pre-opening Expense
3.2
2.9
Stock-based Compensation Expense
4.8
4.4
Leap Year
-
(1.0)
Non-recurring Litigation
5.5
5.5
Adjusted EBITDA
190.6
$          
189.9
$          


PROJECT LASSO
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
11.0x
12.0x
13.0x
5/08
9/06
1/05
5/03
9/01
1/00
5/98
Lasso
Comparable Restaurants
Comparable Casino and Gaming
(Multiple)
10-year Casino Average (8.3x)
10-year Restaurant Average (7.6x)
10-year Lasso Average (6.5x)
Historical EBITDA Multiples
Analysis of 10-Year Historical LTM EBITDA Trading Multiples
Lasso has traded at an
average of 6.5x EBITDA
over the past 10 years
Note: Factset as of May 29, 2008. 
Comparable Restaurants include: Benihana, Bob Evans, Brinker, California Pizza Kitchen, CBRL Group, CEC Entertainment, Denny’s Corp., Luby’s, McCormick & Schmick’s,
O’Charley’s, Ruby Tuesday and Steak N Shake.
Comparable Casino and Gaming includes: Ameristar Casinos, Boyd Gaming, Isle of Capri Casinos, Monarch Casino and Resort, Pinnacle Entertainment, Riviera Holdings
and Trump Entertainment Resorts.


PROJECT LASSO
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
11.0x
12.0x
13.0x
5/08
9/06
1/05
5/03
Lasso
Comparable Restaurants
Comparable Casino and Gaming
(Multiple)
5-year Casino Average (9.9x)
5-year Restaurant Average (7.6x)
5-year Lasso Average (7.5x)
Historical EBITDA Multiples
Analysis of Five-Year Historical LTM EBITDA Trading Multiples
Lasso has traded at an
average of 7.5x EBITDA
over the past five years
Note: Factset as of May 29, 2008. 
Comparable Restaurants include: Benihana, Bob Evans, Brinker, California Pizza Kitchen, CBRL Group, CEC Entertainment, Denny’s Corp., Luby’s, McCormick & Schmick’s,      
O’Charley’s, Ruby Tuesday and Steak N Shake.
Comparable Casino and Gaming includes: Ameristar Casinos, Boyd Gaming, Isle of Capri Casinos, Monarch Casino and Resort, Pinnacle Entertainment, Riviera Holdings
and
Trump Entertainment Resorts.


PROJECT LASSO
Price
52 Week
FD
Enterprise
Enterprise Value
(a)
/ LTM
PE Ratios
(b)
5-Year
PE % of SGR
(b)
2008 - 2009
Company Name
5/29/2008
Low
High
Mkt Cap
Value
(a)
Rev
EBITDA
2008E
2009E
SGR
(b)
2008E
2009E
Rev Growth
Benihana
$9.23
$8.79
$25.11
$140.8
$165.2
0.6x
4.2x
11.4x
10.6x
15.0%
76.0%
70.7%
6.4%
Bob Evans
29.52
23.93
39.83
921.3
1,209.6
0.7x
6.8x
15.5x
14.4x
14.0%
110.4%
102.9%
3.7%
Brinker
21.63
14.65
33.59
2,192.3
3,015.3
0.7x
5.7x
12.8x
11.2x
15.0%
85.6%
74.4%
1.8%
California Pizza Kitchen
14.20
9.32
24.71
359.8
417.3
0.6x
5.9x
22.5x
17.8x
12.0%
187.8%
147.9%
7.7%
CBRL Group
30.75
24.00
46.36
681.6
1,457.2
0.6x
6.3x
9.4x
8.4x
11.0%
85.5%
76.2%
5.1%
CEC Entertainment
35.72
19.81
39.55
898.7
1,205.6
1.5x
6.4x
15.1x
13.5x
12.0%
125.6%
112.1%
3.2%
Denny's Corp.
4.01
2.50
4.99
392.5
726.9
0.8x
7.6x
25.1x
20.1x
30.0%
83.5%
66.8%
NM
Luby's
7.06
6.81
11.83
200.6
164.9
0.5x
5.3x
18.7x
16.7x
12.0%
155.6%
139.0%
5.6%
McCormick & Schmick's
9.69
9.56
30.98
143.7
163.7
0.4x
6.7x
14.9x
12.1x
15.0%
99.4%
80.8%
11.7%
O'Charley's
11.36
9.88
23.45
249.1
386.9
0.4x
4.9x
14.6x
12.5x
14.0%
104.0%
89.2%
3.9%
Ruby Tuesday
7.71
5.70
27.90
398.7
1,003.9
0.7x
5.8x
16.2x
14.1x
15.0%
108.2%
94.1%
NM
Steak N Shake
6.66
6.42
17.92
191.2
378.4
0.6x
12.6x
NM
NM
13.0%
NM
NM
7.1%
Mean
0.7x
6.5x
16.0x
13.7x
14.8%
111.1%
95.8%
5.6%
Median
0.6x
6.1x
15.1x
13.5x
14.0%
104.0%
89.2%
5.4%
Lasso
(c)
$21.00
$14.18
$32.30
$346.0
$1,195.0
1.0x
6.3x
16.0x
11.5x
12.0%
133.6%
95.9%
5.0%
Comparable Restaurant Analysis —
Market Statistics
Market Analysis of Select Restaurant Companies
(US$
in
millions,
except
per
share
data)
(a)
Market Value plus net debt plus minority interest.
(b)
EPS estimates and Secular Growth Rates (SGR) per Wall Street Research.
(c)
EPS
estimates for Lasso are per management projections and assume pro forma interest from the refinancing of the $395.7 million, 9.5% interest rate restaurant debt on
December 31, 2008 at 11.0% per discussions with Lasso management.


PROJECT LASSO
Market Analysis of Select Casino and Gaming Companies
(US$
in
millions,
except
per
share
data)
Comparable Casino and Gaming Analysis —
Market Statistics
(a)
Market Value plus net debt plus minority interest.
(b)
EPS estimates and Secular Growth Rates (SGR) per Wall Street Research.
(c)
EPS
estimates
for
Lasso
are
per
management
projections
and
assume
pro
forma
interest
from
the
refinancing
of
the
$395.7
million,
9.5%
interest
rate
restaurant
debt on December 31, 2008 at 11.0% per discussions with Lasso management.
Price
52 Week
FD
Enterprise
Enterprise
Value
(a)
/ LTM
PE
Ratios
(b)
5-Year
PE
%
of
SGR
(b)
Company Name
5/29/2008
Low
High
Mkt
Cap
Value
(a)
Rev
EBITDA
2008E
2009E
SGR
(b)
2008E
2009E
Ameristar Casinos
$18.00
$15.29
$38.00
$1,029.9
$2,570.7
2.2x
9.3x
14.2x
12.3x
10.0%
141.7%
123.3%
Boyd Gaming Corp.
16.42
14.97
54.22
1,441.4
3,645.6
1.9x
7.2x
12.4x
11.5x
17.0%
73.2%
67.5%
Isle of Capri Casinos
6.87
5.93
25.79
241.9
1,694.4
1.6x
9.5x
NM
27.5x
13.0%
NA
211.4%
Monarch Casino and Resort
13.97
12.53
31.41
247.5
231.7
1.5x
6.0x
18.4x
13.7x
15.0%
122.5%
91.3%
Pinnacle Entertainment
14.24
12.12
31.34
853.7
1,592.0
1.7x
18.2x
NM
33.1x
15.0%
NM
220.8%
Riviera Holdings
16.24
14.24
39.12
204.7
405.2
2.0x
9.8x
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Trump Entertainment Resorts
3.56
2.29
16.41
146.3
1,727.5
1.8x
13.1x
NM
NM
15.0%
NA
NA
Mean
1.8x
10.4x
15.0x
19.6x
14.2%
112.5%
142.9%
Median
1.8x
9.5x
14.2x
13.7x
15.0%
122.5%
123.3%
Lasso
(c)
$21.00
$14.18
$32.30
$346.0
$1,195.0
1.0x
6.3x
16.0x
11.5x
12.0%
133.6%
95.9%


PROJECT LASSO
Comparable Casual Dining M&A Transactions
(a)
Represents total consideration including the assumption of liabilities and residual cash (enterprise value) when available.
2005 –
2008 YTD Comparable Casual Dining M&A Transactions
(US$ in millions)
Enterprise Value/
Date
Date
Ent.
LTM
LTM
Announced
Closed
Target
Acquirer
Val.
(a)
Revenue
EBITDA
5/21/2008
TBD
American Restaurant Group (Black Angus Steakhouse)
Versa Capital
NA
NA
NA
3/11/2008
TBD
Hooters Inc.
Chanticleer Holdings
55.1
$     
NA
NA
12/4/2007
1/3/2008
Smokey Bones Barbeque & Grill
Sun Capital
80.0
NA
NA
11/6/2007
2/20/2008
Cameron Mitchell Restaurants
Ruth's Chris Steak House
92.0
0.9x
7.0x
8/23/2007
8/23/2007
Yard House
TSG Consumer Partners
190.0
1.7x
9.5x
8/16/2007
10/1/2007
RARE Hospitality
Darden Restaurants
1,368.3
1.3x
11.4x
7/16/2007
11/29/2007
Applebee's
IHOP
2,071.0
1.5x
9.2x
7/5/2007
10/22/2007
Champps
Entertainment
F&H Acquisition Corp. (Fox & Hound)
70.9
0.3x
5.8x
6/18/2007
9/4/2007
Friendly Ice Cream Corp.
Freeze Operations (Sun Capital)
337.2
0.6x
8.1x
11/6/2006
6/14/2007
OSI Restaurant Partners (Outback)
Bain Capital, Catterton, Company Founders
3,432.2
0.9x
9.3x
5/7/2007
8/20/2007
Smith & Wollensky
Patina Restaurant Group
97.4
0.8x
13.2x
12/7/2006
3/5/2007
Hard Rock Café
(sub of Rank Group PLC)
Seminole Tribe of Florida
965.0
1.9x
9.9x
10/30/2006
12/6/2006
Logan's Roadhouse
Bruckman, Rosser, Sherrill & Co.
486.0
1.2x
10.4x
10/10/2006
10/16/2006
Joe's Crab Shack
J.H. Whitney Capital Partners
192.0
0.6x
6.4x
8/18/2006
1/12/2007
Lone Star Steakhouse
Lone Star Funds
556.3
0.8x
12.3x
8/8/2006
8/10/2006
Real Mex
Restaurants
Sun Capital
350.0
0.6x
6.2x
6/5/2006
7/5/2006
Bravo Development
Bruckman, Rosser, Sherrill and Castle Harlan
NA
NA
NA
5/22/2006
6/29/2006
Main Street Restaurant Group
The Briad
Group
150.3
0.6x
8.2x
12/9/2005
3/8/2006
Dave & Buster's (DAB)
Wellspring Capital Management
383.0
0.8x
6.1x
10/4/2005
2/27/2006
Fox & Hound Restaurant Group (FOXX)
Newcastle Partners and Steel Partners
179.6
1.1x
8.2x
4/29/2005
9/22/2005
Worldwide Restaurant Concepts (SZ)
Pacific Equity Partners
220.2
0.6x
8.8x
1/20/2005
3/7/2005
Charlie Brown's
Trimaran
Partners
140.0
0.9x
7.0x
1/11/2005
2/23/2005
Uno Restaurant Holdings
Centre Partners
191.6
0.6x
5.6x
Mean
0.9x
8.6x
Median
0.8x
8.2x


PROJECT LASSO
Comparable Casino and Gaming M&A Transactions
(a)
Represents total consideration including the assumption of liabilities and residual cash (enterprise value) when available.
2005 –
2008 YTD Comparable Casino and Gaming M&A Transactions
(US$ in millions)
Enterprise Value/
Date
Date
Ent.
LTM
LTM
Announced
Closed
Target
Acquirer
Val.
(a)
Revenue
EBITDA
5/29/2008
TBD
Trump Marina Hotel Casino
Coastal Marina
316.0
$    
1.4x
12.0x
12/11/2007
TBD
Cannery Casino Resorts
Crown Limited
1,750.0
NA
NA
11/13/2007
1/25/2008
Isle of Capri Casinos (Black Hawk)
Isle of Capri Casinos
150.2
NA
NA
9/4/2007
9/4/2007
Jalou
Fox
Jacobs Entertainment
13.7
NA
NA
6/27/2007
3/10/2008
Binions
Gambling Hall
TLC Casino Enterprises
32.0
NA
NA
6/15/2007
TBD
Penn National Gaming
Fortress
Investment
Group
and
Centerbridge
Partners
8,717.1
3.8x
14.3x
6/4/2007
6/4/2007
Green Acres Casino Management
Gaming Entertainment
10.0
NA
NA
4/23/2007
2/20/2008
Icahn Enterprises (American Casino, Stratosphere)
Whitehall Street Fund (Goldman)
1,200.0
3.1x
13.9x
4/3/2007
11/6/2007
Gateway Casinos Income Fund
New World Gaming Partners
854.4
NM
18.8x
3/19/2007
6/11/2007
Casino Aztar
Isle of Capri Casinos
45.0
NA
NA
1/19/2007
TBD
155 East Tropicana (Hooters Casino)
NTH
Advisory
Group
and
Silverleaf
Real
Estate
95.0
1.4x
NM
12/4/2006
11/7/2007
Station Casinos
Fertitta
Colony
Partners
8,675.9
NM
19.3x
12/19/2006
1/28/2008
Harrah's Entertainment
Apollo Management and TPG
27,753.3
2.9x
11.9x
12/7/2006
3/5/2007
Hard Rock Café
Seminole Tribe of Florida
965.0
2.0x
NA
9/11/2006
9/11/2006
Stanley Leisure
Genting
International
1,265.9
3.0x
16.4x
9/5/2006
11/17/2006
Sands Casino
Pinnacle Entertainment
250.0
NA
NA
8/31/2006
11/2/2006
London Clubs International
Dagger Holdings (Harrah's)
592.0
2.5x
19.1x
5/31/2006
3/1/2007
Dania Jai Alai
Boyd Gaming
152.5
NA
NA
5/17/2006
1/3/2007
Sands Regent
Herbst
Gaming
138.1
1.6x
9.2x
5/11/2006
2/5/2007
Hard Rock Casino (Las Vegas)
Morgans
Hotel Group
770.0
4.2x
NM
4/13/2006
1/3/2007
Aztar Corp (Tropicana Casino)
Wimar
Tahoe
Corp.
(Blackstone)
2,735.4
3.0x
12.8x
4/10/2006
2/1/2007
Stockman's Casino
Full House Resorts
25.5
2.3x
10.0x
2/14/2006
7/31/2006
Isle of Capri Casinos (Two Casinos)
Legends Gaming
240.0
1.5x
6.8x
11/29/2005
5/19/2006
Harrah's (Flamingo Casino, Laughlin)
American Real Estate Partners
170.0
NA
NA
8/22/2005
12/23/2005
Imperial Palace
Harrah's Entertainment
370.0
NA
NA
6/20/2005
10/25/2005
Argosy Casino (Baton Rouge)
Columbia Sussex Corp.
150.0
1.7x
7.4x
3/23/2005
4/25/2005
MotorCity
Casino
Ilitch
Holdings
Inc
981.3
2.3x
NA
2/28/2005
9/1/2005
Depot Casino
Sands Regent
10.2
1.9x
NA
2/4/2005
9/27/2005
Golden Nugget Casino
Landry's Restaurants
316.1
1.6x
13.4x
1/20/2005
7/22/2005
Galaxy Casino SA
Canton Treasure Group Ltd
2,359.5
NM
NA
Mean
2.4x
13.2x
Median
2.3x
13.1x


PROJECT LASSO
Discounted Cash Flow Overview
For the DCF analysis, the CAPM formula and a set of comparable companies for each division/Lasso's projected beta according to
Barra's
Beta were used
General CAPM assumptions:
Risk-free rate of 3.5%
(a)
Equity risk premium of 7.1%
(b)
Size
premium
of
4.4%
(b)
for
the
restaurant
division
and
size
premium
of
9.7%
(b)
for
the
gaming
division
Target capital structure (debt/equity) of 60%/40% for restaurants and 70%/30% for gaming
The following assumptions were used for the restaurant division:
Cost of capital of approximately 13.0%
Pre-tax
cost
of
debt
of
11.0%
(c)
Re-levered comparable company beta of 1.93
Exit multiples of 5.5x -
6.5x EBITDA
We also ran sensitivities for same-store sales between (1.0%) and 1.0%
The following assumptions were used for the gaming division
Cost of capital of approximately 12.5%
Pre-tax cost of debt of 9.0%
(c)
Re-levered comparable company beta of 1.99
Exit multiples of 7.5x -
9.5x EBITDA
The impact of building the new tower was also taken into consideration
The sum of the parts of the DCF by division results in a share price range of $21.00 to $37.00
(a)
U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield as of April 18, 2008.
(b)
Per Ibbotson Associates data.
(c)
Represents a blended interest rate of facilities by division.


PROJECT LASSO
Valuation at Various Share Prices
(a)
Except
where
noted,
prices
relative
to
initial
bid
announcement
date.
(b)
Current
price
as
of
May
29,
2008.
(c)
Basic
shares
from
10-Q
for
the
period
ended
March
31,
2008.
Options
outstanding
per
Lasso
management
as
of
April
2008.
(d)
Assumes
net
debt
of
$849.0
million,
which
excludes
$10.0
million
in
mandatory
cash
that
is
physically
held
on
premises
of
the
Golden
Nugget
properties
per
discussions
with
Lasso
management.
(e)
EPS
estimates
per
Lasso
management.
(f)
Assumes
pro
forma
interest
from
the
refinancing
of
the
$395.7
million,
9.5%
interest
rate
restaurant
debt
on
December
31,
2008
at
11.0%
per
discussions
with
Lasso
management.
Multiples at Various Share Prices
(US$ and shares in millions, except per share data)
Share Price
$21.00
$21.50
$22.00
$22.50
$23.00
$23.50
$24.00
Premium/(Discount)
(a)
1-Day Prior Price of $16.67
26.0%
29.0%
32.0%
35.0%
38.0%
41.0%
44.0%
30-Day Average Price of $16.31
28.8%
31.8%
34.9%
38.0%
41.0%
44.1%
47.1%
3-Month Average Price of $21.29
(1.4%)
1.0%
3.3%
5.7%
8.0%
10.4%
12.7%
52-Week High of $32.30
(35.0%)
(33.4%)
(31.9%)
(30.3%)
(28.8%)
(27.2%)
(25.7%)
52-Week Low of $14.18
48.1%
51.6%
55.1%
58.7%
62.2%
65.7%
69.3%
Current Price of $16.07
(b)
30.7%
33.8%
36.9%
40.0%
43.1%
46.2%
49.3%
Implied Equity Value
(c)
$346.0
$354.5
$363.0
$371.5
$380.1
$388.6
$397.1
Implied Enterprise Value
(d)
$1,195.0
$1,203.5
$1,212.0
$1,220.5
$1,229.0
$1,237.5
$1,246.0
Fully Diluted Shares (Basic + CSEs)
16.477
16.490
16.502
16.513
16.524
16.534
16.544
Enterprise Value/:
LTM Revenue
$1,183.1
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.1x
LTM Adjusted EBITDA
189.9
6.3x
6.3x
6.4x
6.4x
6.5x
6.5x
6.6x
Implied Equity Value/:
2008E EPS (Mgmt.)
(e)
$1.31
16.0x
16.4x
16.7x
17.1x
17.5x
17.9x
18.3x
2009E EPS (Mgmt. with Refinancing)
(f)
1.83
11.5x
11.8x
12.0x
12.3x
12.6x
12.9x
13.1x


PROJECT LASSO
Projected
Shareholder
Returns
at
Adjusted
EBITDA
Multiples
(US$
in
millions,
except
per
share
data)
Projected Shareholder Returns
(a)
Projections
per
Lasso
management.
Excludes
non-recurring
pre-opening,
leap
year
adjustments
and
stock
compensation
expense
for
2008.
Excludes
stock
compensation
expense for
2009
2011.
(b)
Stock
price
as
of
May
29,
2008.
(c)
Future
stock
prices
discounted
to
June
30,
2008.
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
Adjusted EBITDA
(a)
190.3
$     
204.3
$     
221.0
$     
239.3
$     
% growth
(0.1%)
7.4%
8.2%
8.3%
Current Enterprise Value
(b)
1,111.9
$  
Current Equity Value
(b)
262.9
$     
Current Stock Price
(b)
16.07
$     
Current LTM Adjusted EBITDA Multiple
5.9x
Future Enterprise Values at Various EBITDA Multiples
5.5x
1,046.7
$  
1,123.7
$  
1,215.4
$  
1,316.3
$  
6.0x
1,141.9
1,225.8
1,325.9
1,436.0
6.5x
1,237.1
1,328.0
1,436.4
1,555.7
7.0x
1,332.2
1,430.1
1,546.9
1,675.3
7.5x
1,427.4
1,532.3
1,657.4
1,795.0
Future Stock Prices at Various EBITDA Multiples
5.5x
9.86
$       
14.16
$     
23.52
$     
35.48
$     
6.0x
15.61
20.26
29.95
42.34
6.5x
21.25
26.26
36.29
49.21
7.0x
26.85
32.15
42.63
56.07
7.5x
32.32
38.01
48.97
62.94
Annualized Return at Various EBITDA Multiples
Discounted to Current Market Price
(c)
5.5x
(62.3%)
(8.1%)
16.4%
25.4%
6.0x
(5.7%)
16.7%
28.3%
31.9%
6.5x
74.9%
38.7%
38.5%
37.7%
7.0x
179.1%
58.8%
47.7%
42.9%
7.5x
304.6%
77.5%
56.2%
47.7%


PROJECT LASSO
As of January 28, 2008
As of April 4, 2008
Change from 1/28/08 to 4/4/08
EV/LTM
2008E
(a)
EV/LTM
2008E
(a)
EV/LTM
2008E
(a)
Company Name
Price
EBITDA
P/E
Price
EBITDA
P/E
Price
EBITDA
P/E
CEC Entertainment
$22.73
4.6x
10.6x
$31.44
4.7x
14.4x
38.3%
0.1x
3.8x
Darden
27.47
7.9x
9.3x
34.41
8.6x
12.2x
25.3%
0.7x
2.8x
Panera Bread
36.20
8.0x
17.7x
44.00
9.2x
21.9x
21.5%
1.2x
4.2x
Krispy Kreme
2.73
10.4x
NM
3.29
12.0x
NM
20.5%
1.6x
NA
CBRL Group
30.17
6.5x
9.5x
35.77
6.9x
11.0x
18.6%
0.4x
1.5x
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers
33.09
7.3x
15.2x
38.59
8.1x
17.8x
16.6%
0.7x
2.6x
Burger King
23.94
9.8x
17.1x
27.65
10.5x
19.9x
15.5%
0.7x
2.8x
California Pizza Kitchen
12.95
5.6x
14.6x
14.45
5.4x
24.5x
11.6%
(0.2x)
9.9x
Buffalo Wild Wings
23.01
7.4x
17.7x
25.58
9.3x
20.4x
11.2%
1.9x
2.7x
Cosi
2.60
NM
NM
2.88
NM
NM
10.8%
NA
NA
Cheesecake Factory
20.75
9.2x
15.6x
22.77
9.8x
19.8x
9.7%
0.6x
4.2x
Caribou Coffee
2.79
4.2x
NM
3.05
5.7x
NM
9.3%
1.6x
NA
McDonald's
51.07
10.4x
16.2x
55.72
10.9x
17.6x
9.1%
0.5x
1.4x
Yum Brands
35.65
10.8x
19.5x
38.88
11.3x
20.4x
9.1%
0.5x
0.9x
Morton's
7.10
5.9x
9.5x
7.67
6.1x
13.5x
8.0%
0.2x
4.0x
Papa John's
23.51
6.4x
13.8x
25.15
7.4x
15.0x
7.0%
1.0x
1.1x
P.F. Chang's
27.86
8.6x
21.4x
29.80
8.6x
22.3x
7.0%
0.0x
0.9x
Sonic
21.33
10.3x
18.4x
22.74
10.8x
19.7x
6.6%
0.5x
1.3x
Domino's Pizza
13.30
10.0x
12.5x
14.13
11.4x
13.3x
6.2%
1.4x
0.8x
Jack In The Box
26.45
6.9x
13.1x
27.91
7.2x
13.4x
5.5%
0.4x
0.3x
Brinker
18.13
5.0x
10.0x
19.01
5.1x
10.5x
4.9%
0.1x
0.5x
Peets Coffee & Tea
23.34
16.4x
29.5x
24.45
15.2x
31.5x
4.8%
(1.2x)
2.0x
Carrols Restaurant Group
7.97
5.8x
9.4x
8.31
6.1x
11.5x
4.3%
0.3x
2.2x
Bob Evans
27.49
6.6x
14.1x
28.53
6.6x
14.6x
3.8%
0.0x
0.5x
Change in Restaurant Valuations Since January 28, 2008
Change in Restaurant Valuations Since January 28, 2008
Note:
Per
Factset
as
of
May
29,
2008.
(a)
Estimates
per
Wall
Street
research.


PROJECT LASSO
Change in Restaurant Valuations Since January 28, 2008
Note:
Per
Factset
as
of
May
29,
2008.
(a)
Estimates
per
Wall
Street
research.
Change in Restaurant Valuations Since January 28, 2008 (Cont.)
As of January 28, 2008
As of April 4, 2008
Change from 1/28/08 to 4/4/08
EV/LTM
2008E
(a)
EV/LTM
2008E
(a)
EV/LTM
2008E
(a)
Company Name
Price
EBITDA
P/E
Price
EBITDA
P/E
Price
EBITDA
P/E
Ruby Tuesday
$7.69
4.9x
12.8x
$7.96
5.9x
16.8x
3.5%
1.0x
3.9x
Tim Hortons
34.86
14.3x
22.2x
35.31
13.4x
21.6x
1.3%
(0.9x)
(0.6x)
AFC Enterprises
9.05
7.1x
10.1x
9.12
7.8x
14.0x
0.8%
0.7x
4.0x
Benihana
10.24
4.5x
10.8x
10.31
4.7x
12.7x
0.7%
0.2x
1.9x
Wendy's
23.92
8.7x
15.0x
23.58
7.8x
16.8x
(1.4%)
(0.9x)
1.9x
Texas Roadhouse
11.11
9.9x
17.1x
10.54
9.2x
19.3x
(5.1%)
(0.7x)
2.2x
McCormick & Schmick's
12.87
6.6x
12.3x
12.18
6.7x
17.4x
(5.4%)
0.1x
5.1x
BJ's Restaurants
15.49
13.3x
25.8x
14.65
11.5x
27.2x
(5.4%)
(1.8x)
1.4x
Starbucks
19.66
10.0x
20.1x
18.50
8.9x
18.7x
(5.9%)
(1.1x)
(1.4x)
CKE Restaurants
13.00
7.2x
15.1x
12.10
6.5x
14.4x
(6.9%)
(0.8x)
(0.7x)
Chipotle Mexican Grill
125.37
28.3x
47.3x
116.66
24.4x
44.9x
(6.9%)
(3.9x)
(2.4x)
Denny's Corp.
3.32
6.8x
14.4x
3.01
6.3x
16.7x
(9.3%)
(0.5x)
2.3x
Ruth's Chris
7.89
5.9x
9.9x
7.10
6.2x
12.9x
(10.0%)
0.3x
3.0x
Rubio's Restaurants
6.49
5.4x
17.5x
5.80
4.9x
NA
(10.6%)
(0.4x)
NA
O'Charley's
13.08
4.7x
14.2x
11.57
4.6x
26.3x
(11.5%)
(0.1x)
12.1x
Steak N Shake
8.79
8.7x
23.8x
7.76
9.5x
NM
(11.7%)
0.7x
NA
Luby's
9.37
6.8x
23.5x
7.25
5.5x
19.2x
(22.6%)
(1.3x)
(4.4x)
Kona Grill
12.30
15.2x
NM
7.98
7.4x
NM
(35.1%)
(7.8x)
NA
Einstein Noah Restaurant Group
18.96
9.7x
19.0x
9.76
7.3x
9.8x
(48.5%)
(2.4x)
(9.2x)
Number of Decreased
15
15
6
Number of Increased
28
27
31
Average (Decrease)/Increase
2.2%
(0.2x)
1.9x
Median (Decrease)/Increase
4.8%
0.2x
1.9x