SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
SCHEDULE 13D
(Rule 13d-101)
INFORMATION TO BE INCLUDED IN STATEMENTS FILED PURSUANT
TO RULE 13d-1(a) AND AMENDMENTS THERETO FILED PURSUANT TO
RULE 13d-2(a)
(Amendment No. 4)*
Riverbed Technology, Inc.
(Name of Issuer)
Common Stock, par value $0.0001
(Title of Class of Securities)
768573 10 7
(CUSIP Number)
Stephen M. Schultz, Esq.
Kleinberg, Kaplan, Wolff & Cohen, P.C.
551 Fifth Avenue, New York, New York 10176
Tel: (212) 986-6000
(Name, Address and Telephone Number of Person Authorized to Receive Notices and Communications)
March 11, 2014
(Date of Event Which Requires Filing of This Statement)
If the filing person has previously filed a statement on Schedule 13G to report the acquisition which is the subject of this Schedule 13D, and is filing this schedule because of Rule 13d-1(e), 13d-1(f) or 13d-1(g), check the following box ¨.
Note: Schedules filed in paper format shall include a signed original and five copies of the schedule, including all exhibits. See Rule 13d-7 for other parties to whom copies are to be sent.
* | The remainder of this cover page shall be filled out for a reporting persons initial filing on this form with respect to the subject class of securities, and for any subsequent amendment containing information which would alter disclosures provided in a prior cover page. |
The information required on the remainder of this cover page shall not be deemed to be filed for the purpose of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section of the Act but shall be subject to all other provisions of the Act (however, see the Notes).
1. | Names of reporting persons I.R.S. IDENTIFICATION NOS. OF ABOVE PERSONS (ENTITIES ONLY)
Elliott Associates, L.P. | |||||
2. | Check the appropriate box if a member of a group (a) x (b) ¨
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3. | SEC use only
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4. | Source of funds
WC | |||||
5. | Check box if disclosure of legal proceedings is required pursuant to Items 2(d) or 2(e) ¨
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6. | Citizenship or place of organization
Delaware | |||||
Number of shares beneficially owned by each reporting person with
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7. | Sole voting power
5,150,756 | ||||
8. | Shared voting power
0 | |||||
9. | Sole dispositive power
5,150,756 | |||||
10. | Shared dispositive power
0 | |||||
11. |
Aggregate amount beneficially owned by each reporting person
5,150,756 | |||||
12. | Check box if the aggregate amount in Row (11) excludes certain shares ¨
| |||||
13. | Percent of class represented by amount in Row (11)
3.2% | |||||
14. | Type of reporting person
PN |
1. | Names of reporting persons I.R.S. IDENTIFICATION NOS. OF ABOVE PERSONS (ENTITIES ONLY)
Elliott International, L.P. | |||||
2. | Check the appropriate box if a member of a group (a) x (b) ¨
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3. | SEC use only
| |||||
4. | Source of funds
WC | |||||
5. | Check box if disclosure of legal proceedings is required pursuant to Items 2(d) or 2(e) ¨
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6. | Citizenship or place of organization
Cayman Islands, British West Indies | |||||
Number of shares beneficially owned by each reporting person with
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7. | Sole voting power
0 | ||||
8. | Shared voting power
9,565,690 | |||||
9. | Sole dispositive power
0 | |||||
10. | Shared dispositive power
9,565,690 | |||||
11. |
Aggregate amount beneficially owned by each reporting person
9,565,690 | |||||
12. | Check box if the aggregate amount in Row (11) excludes certain shares ¨
| |||||
13. | Percent of class represented by amount in Row (11)
6.0% | |||||
14. | Type of reporting person
PN |
1. | Names of reporting persons I.R.S. IDENTIFICATION NOS. OF ABOVE PERSONS (ENTITIES ONLY)
Elliott International Capital Advisors Inc. | |||||
2. | Check the appropriate box if a member of a group (a) x (b) ¨
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3. | SEC use only
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4. | Source of funds*
OO | |||||
5. | Check box if disclosure of legal proceedings is required pursuant to Items 2(d) or 2(e) ¨
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6. | Citizenship or place of organization
Delaware | |||||
Number of shares beneficially owned by each reporting person with
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7. | Sole voting power
0 | ||||
8. | Shared voting power
9,565,690 | |||||
9. | Sole dispositive power
0 | |||||
10. | Shared dispositive power
9,565,690 | |||||
11. |
Aggregate amount beneficially owned by each reporting person
9,565,690 | |||||
12. | Check box if the aggregate amount in Row (11) excludes certain shares ¨
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13. | Percent of class represented by amount in Row (11)
6.0% | |||||
14. | Type of reporting person
CO |
The following constitutes Amendment No. 4 to the Schedule 13D filed by the undersigned (the Amendment No. 4). This Amendment No. 4 amends the Schedule 13D as specifically set forth herein.
ITEM 4. | Purpose of Transaction. |
Item 4 is hereby amended to add the following:
On March 11, 2014, the Reporting Persons issued a public response to a series of statements made last week by executives of the Issuer regarding Elliotts and Elliott Internationals offer to acquire all of the Issuers outstanding shares of Common Stock for a price of $21 per share in cash (the Statement). A copy of the Statement is attached as Exhibit E hereto, and incorporated herein by reference.
Moelis & Company has been retained as Elliotts and Elliott Internationals M&A advisor and has prepared a presentation validating the attractiveness of Elliotts and Elliott Internationals offer to acquire all of the Issuers outstanding shares of Common Stock for a price of $21 per share in cash. A copy of this presentation is attached as Exhibit F hereto, and incorporated herein by reference.
ITEM 5. | Interest in Securities of the Issuer. |
Item 5(a) is hereby amended and restated to read as follows:
(a) The aggregate percentage of Shares reported owned by each person named herein is based upon 159,987,972 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of January 30, 2014, which is the total number of Shares outstanding as reported in the Issuers Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 14, 2014.
Elliott individually beneficially owns 5,150,756 shares of Common Stock, constituting approximately 3.2% of all of the outstanding shares of Common Stock.
Elliott International and EICA beneficially own an aggregate of 9,565,690 shares of Common Stock, constituting approximately 6.0% of all of the outstanding shares of Common Stock.
Collectively, Elliott, Elliott International and EICA beneficially own 14,716,446 shares of Common Stock, constituting approximately 9.2% of all of the outstanding shares of Common Stock.
Collectively, Elliott, Elliott International and EICA have net economic exposure to approximately 1.3% of the shares of Common Stock outstanding pursuant to Derivate Agreements, as disclosed in Item 6.
Collectively, Elliott, Elliott International and EICA have combined net economic exposure and voting power in the Issuer of approximately 10.5% of the shares of Common Stock outstanding.
ITEM 6. | Contracts, Arrangements, Understandings or Relationships With Respect to Securities of the Issuer. |
Item 6 is hereby amended and restated to read as follows:
Elliott (through The Liverpool Limited Partnership, a Bermuda limited partnership and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Elliott) and Elliott International have entered into notional principal amount derivative agreements (the Derivative Agreements) in the form of cash settled swaps with respect to 822,500 and 1,527,500 shares of Common Stock of the Issuer, respectively (representing economic exposure to approximately 0.51% and 0.95% of the shares of Common Stock of the Issuer, respectively). Collectively, the Derivative Agreements held by the Reporting Persons represent the economic exposure to an interest in approximately 1.5% of the shares of Common Stock. The Derivative Agreements provide Elliott and Elliott International with economic results that are comparable to the economic results of ownership but do not provide them with the power to vote or direct the voting or dispose of or direct the disposition of the shares that are the subject of the Derivative Agreements (such shares, the Subject Shares). The Reporting Persons disclaim beneficial ownership in the Subject Shares. The counterparties to the Derivative Agreements are unaffiliated third party financial institutions.
In addition, Elliott and Elliott International have also entered into Derivatives Agreements in the form of cash settled swaps that result in Elliott and Elliott International having short economic exposure to an aggregate of 347,012 shares of Common Stock (the Short Contracts). The Short Contracts do not give Elliott or Elliott International direct or indirect voting, investment or dispositive control over any securities of the Issuer. Accordingly, Elliott and Elliott International each disclaim any beneficial ownership in any securities that may be referenced in such contracts or that may be held from time to time by any counterparties to such Short Contracts.
Except as described above in this Item 6, none of the Reporting Persons has any contracts, arrangements, understandings or relationships with respect to the securities of the Issuer.
ITEM 7. | Material to be Filed as Exhibits. |
Item 7 is hereby amended to add the following exhibits:
Exhibit E Press Release dated March 11, 2014.
Exhibit F Presentation by Moelis & Company.
SIGNATURES
After reasonable inquiry and to the best of its knowledge and belief, the undersigned each certifies that the information with respect to it set forth in this statement is true, complete and correct.
Dated: March 11, 2014
. | ELLIOTT ASSOCIATES, L.P | |||||||
By: | Elliott Capital Advisors, L.P., as General Partner | |||||||
By:Braxton Associates, Inc., as General Partner | ||||||||
By: | /s/ Elliot Greenberg | |||||||
Elliot Greenberg | ||||||||
Vice President | ||||||||
ELLIOTT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. | ||||||||
By: | Elliott International Capital Advisors Inc., | |||||||
as Attorney-in-Fact | ||||||||
By: | /s/ Elliot Greenberg | |||||||
Elliot Greenberg | ||||||||
Vice President | ||||||||
ELLIOTT INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL ADVISORS INC. | ||||||||
By: | /s/ Elliot Greenberg | |||||||
Elliot Greenberg | ||||||||
Vice President |
Exhibit E
For Media Inquiries Contact:
Sloane & Company
Elliot Sloane, 212-446-1860
Esloane@sloanepr.com
or
Alexandra Meredith, 212-446-1887
Ameredith@sloanepr.com
Elliott Fact-Checks Riverbeds Misleading Comments
Moelis Presentation Verifies Attractiveness of Elliotts $21-per-share bid
Elliotts Bid, Other Legitimate Indications of Buyer Interest Represent Clearly Superior Path versus
Riverbeds Status Quo of Underperformance
NEW YORK (March 11, 2014) Elliott Management Corporation (Elliott) today issued a public response to a series of grossly misleading statements made last week by executives of Riverbed Technology (NASDAQ: RVBD).
By publicly denying the buyer interest that has been expressed to the Company and by comparing the value of Elliotts bid to a false reality, Riverbeds Management and Board have crossed a line from failing shareholders to actively misleading them as well, said Jesse Cohn, portfolio manager at Elliott. It is bad enough that this Board has overseen a history of poor execution, an overpriced acquisition and severe stock price underperformance relative to all relevant benchmarks and peer averages over any period of time. Now, this same Board is allowing management to make highly misleading statements in the face of a very real opportunity to maximize value for shareholders through a transaction.
Riverbeds stock price performance speaks for itself:
Stock Price Performance (1) (2) | ||||||||||||||||||||
1-Year | 2-Year | 3-Year | 4-Year | 5-Year | ||||||||||||||||
RVBD |
(35.0 | ) | (49.4 | ) | (48.9 | ) | 39.5 | 126.9 | ||||||||||||
10-K Peers (3) |
16.3 | 20.3 | 4.7 | 75.0 | 177.1 | |||||||||||||||
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Over / (under) performance |
(51.3 | ) | (69.7 | ) | (53.7 | ) | (35.5 | ) | (50.3 | ) | ||||||||||
RVBD |
(35.0 | ) | (49.4 | ) | (48.9 | ) | 39.5 | 126.9 | ||||||||||||
Proxy Peers (4) |
6.4 | (8.3 | ) | 6.8 | 82.4 | 254.0 | ||||||||||||||
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Over / (under) performance |
(41.4 | ) | (41.1 | ) | (55.8 | ) | (42.9 | ) | (127.1 | ) | ||||||||||
RVBD |
(35.0 | ) | (49.4 | ) | (48.9 | ) | 39.5 | 126.9 | ||||||||||||
Index Average (5) |
31.4 | 46.4 | 61.8 | 89.3 | 132.9 | |||||||||||||||
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Over / (under) performance |
(66.4 | ) | (95.7 | ) | (110.7 | ) | (49.8 | ) | (6.1 | ) |
Source: Bloomberg, company filings
(1) | Performance measured to 10/29/13, which represents the day before Elliott began significant purchases of RVBD stock. For reference, Elliott filed its 13D on 11/8/13 and Riverbed closed at $15.11 on 11/7/13. |
(2) | Calculated using a total return calculation which includes impact of both stock price performance and dividends. |
(3) | Includes CA, CPWR, CSCO, CTXS, FFIV, NTCT, and RDWR. |
(4) | Includes AKAM, ARUN, ADSK, CTXS, FFIV, FTNT, INFA, NTGR, NUAN, PLCM, RAX, RHT, ROVI, TIBX, and VRSN. |
(5) | Average of NASDAQ Composite Index and S&P 500. |
In response to this outrageous behavior, Elliott is providing shareholders with the facts in the form of a fact-check that exposes Riverbeds misleading statements. In addition, Elliott has filed a presentation by the highly respected investment bank Moelis & Company, which validates the attractiveness of Elliotts $21-per-share bid for Riverbed. This document was filed this morning as an exhibit to Elliotts amended 13D and is available at www.sec.gov.
Riverbed purports to take seriously any offer that is serious and credible. As the presentation put forward by Moelis today shows, our bid of $21-per-share represents compelling value for Riverbed shareholders that any responsible Board should explore, Cohn stated. The clear and correct path forward is for the Board to stop misleading shareholders and instead allow all interested buyers, including Elliott, to conduct diligence with an eye toward exploring a value-maximizing transaction.
Elliott, affiliates of which collectively own or have economic exposure to approximately 10.5% of the common stock and equivalents of Riverbed Technology, Inc., is a multi-strategy investment firm with deep experience investing in public and private companies.
Full text of the fact-check is below:
At an investor conference last week, Riverbed CFO Ernie Maddock made a number of statements about buyer interest in Riverbed that are simply inconsistent with the facts. The same day, Riverbed CEO Jerry Kennelly gave an interview to Bloomberg News that doubled down on these misleading distortions.
| When asked whether the Company had received unsolicited offers in the $25 range, Maddock replied, I think its reasonable to assume that, had those existed, there would have been some response. Riverbed CEO Jerry Kennelly subsequently told Bloomberg that no serious party had made a credible bid for the Company. |
| FACT: Based on Riverbeds own direct admissions to Elliott, numerous parties have contacted the Company to express interest in buying Riverbed. Despite Maddock and Kennellys attempts to mislead shareholders, this strong buyer interest exists, it has been directly expressed to the Company and its advisors, and it has thus far been completely ignored by Riverbeds Board. Furthermore, despite making a $21-per-share cash bid and indicating that we could potentially increase our own offer if given access to diligence, Riverbed has denied us the opportunity to conduct any diligence. |
| When asked to explain the analysis behind the Companys assertion that Elliotts $21-per-share bid undervalued the Company, Maddock stated, We did the traditional math, and looked at growth rates And the conclusion was that as things exist today, there is likely more opportunity in allowing the Company to continue to execute its plan. |
| FACT: There are real questions about execution. Riverbed has been touting an illustrative operating plan of consistent 10% revenue growth something that is not actually being achieved. We cannot understand why Riverbeds Board and management believe it is acceptable to tell shareholders they are modeling 10% annual revenue growth when guidance as of their last earnings call was between 4% and 6% a range that is approximately half that amount. |
| When asked about the possibility of running a sale process, Maddock said, Were choosing to take our time, energy, and attention and focus it on the execution of our business plan, which ultimately is the way of creating long-term shareholder value and thats what were paid to do. |
| FACT: Riverbeds Board has an obligation to maximize shareholder value. Refusing even to entertain the strong buyer interest that exists interest at levels that represent premium valuations above what the Company is capable of achieving on a stand-alone, publicly traded basis is not consistent with the Boards fiduciary obligation and severely compromises its commitment to shareholders. |
| In defending his unwillingness to allow Elliott and the other numerous interested buyers to conduct expedited diligence, Kennelly stated were not a proper target for activism. Theres nothing broken to fix. |
| FACT: First, Kennelly is attempting to mislead by discussing activism: Elliott is a potential buyer of Riverbed. Elliott has put a serious, credible and fair premium offer on the table. Elliott has hired Moelis & Co. as its M&A advisor. These actions demonstrate Elliotts intentions to acquire the business outright. Boards that take their obligation to shareholders seriously, particularly boards of underperforming companies, typically respond to such offers by providing appropriate diligence to the potential acquirer and to other interested buyers with the goal of eliciting the highest and best offers for the Company. We have been encouraging this Board to do just that. |
Second, given severe and consistent stock price underperformance, its value-destructive track record in acquisitions and its poor execution over an extended timeframe, Riverbed is absolutely a proper target for activism.
Finally, in relation to the last part of Kennellys statement, no CEO should ever state that there is nothing broken to fix. This represents dangerous complacency and as the well-respected Silicon Valley businessman Andy Grove once observed, Complacency breeds failure.
###
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
The information herein contains forward-looking statements. Specific forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and include, without limitation, words such as may, will, expects, believes, anticipates, plans, estimates, projects, targets, forecasts, seeks, could, should or the negative of such terms or other variations on such terms or comparable terminology. Similarly, statements that describe our objectives, plans or goals are forward-looking. Our forward-looking statements are based on our current intent, belief, expectations, estimates and projections regarding the Company and projections regarding the industry in which it operates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors that are difficult to predict and that could cause actual results to differ materially. Accordingly, you should not rely upon forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual results and actual results may vary materially from what is expressed in or indicated by the forward-looking statements.
About Elliott Management Corporation
Elliott Management Corporation manages two multi-strategy hedge funds which combined have more than $23 billion of assets under management. Its flagship fund, Elliott Associates, L.P., was founded in 1977, making it one of the oldest hedge funds under continuous management. The Elliott funds investors include pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, foundations, funds-of-funds, high net worth individuals and families, and employees of the firm.
###
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Exhibit F
March 11, 2014
Valuation Perspectives on Riverbed Offer
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Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Elliott Management Corporation (Elliott) and its financial advisor Moelis & Company LLC (Moelis) based on publicly available information. Moelis has not assumed any responsibility for independently verifying the information herein, Moelis makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information herein and Moelis disclaims any liability with respect to the information herein. In this presentation, Moelis, at Elliotts direction, has used certain projections, forecasts or other forward-looking statements with respect to Riverbed Technology, Inc. (Riverbed or the Company) and/or other parties involved in the transaction from public sources which Moelis has assumed, at Elliotts direction, were prepared based on the best available estimates and judgments of the preparer as to the future performance of the Company and/or such other parties. This presentation speaks only as of its date and Moelis assumes no obligation to update it or to advise any person that its views have changed.
This presentation is solely for informational purposes. This presentation is not intended to provide the sole basis for any decision on any transaction and is not a recommendation with respect to any transaction. The recipient should make its own independent business decision based on all other information, advice and the recipients own judgment. This presentation is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an indication of interest to purchase any security, option, commodity, future, loan or currency. It is not a commitment to underwrite any security, to loan any funds or to make any investment. Moelis does not offer tax, accounting or legal advice.
Moelis provides mergers and acquisitions, restructuring and other advisory services to clients and its affiliates manage private investment partnerships. Its personnel may make statements or provide advice that is contrary to information contained in this material. Our proprietary interests may conflict with your interests. Moelis may from time to time have positions in or effect transactions in securities described in this presentation. Moelis may have advised, may seek to advise and may in the future advise or invest in companies mentioned in this presentation.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
The information herein contains forward-looking statements. Specific forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and include, without limitation, words such as may, will, expects, believes, anticipates, plans, estimates, projects, targets, forecasts, seeks, could, should or the negative of such terms or other variations on such terms or comparable terminology. Similarly, statements that describe Elliotts objectives, plans or goals are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are based on current intent, belief, expectations, estimates and projections regarding the Company and projections regarding the industry in which it operates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors that are difficult to predict and that could cause actual results to differ materially. Accordingly, you should not rely upon forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual results and actual results may vary materially from what is expressed in or indicated by the forward-looking statements.
[ 1 ]
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Summary of Elliotts Transaction Proposal
Based on publicly available information, Moelis has conducted valuation analyses on Elliotts current bid of $21.00 per share, which represents a 43% premium over the unaffected share price of Riverbed1
Buyer Funds under management of Elliott Management Corporation (Elliott)
PARTIES
Target Riverbed Technology, Inc. (Riverbed or the Company)
$21.00 per share in cash, submitted on February 25, 2014
$3,594mm Total Enterprise Value for Riverbed
Implies 13.5x LTM Adjusted EBITDA2
Implies 10.2x 2014E Adjusted EBITDA2, 3
Implies 18.4x 2014E Adjusted EPS3, 4
PURCHASE PRICE
Represents a:
42.9% premium to one day share price1
45.2% premium to 30-day average share price1
40.9% premium to 60-day average share price1
37.6% premium to 90-day average share price1
FORM OF 100% cash
CONSIDERATION
NEXT STEPS Need for Riverbed to provide basic customary due diligence to Elliott so it can potentially increase its offer
Source: Letters from Elliott to the Board of Directors of Riverbed dated 01/08/14 and 02/25/14
1. Represents premium to close price of $14.70 on 10/29/13, or average prior thereto, which represents the day before Elliott began its significant purchase(s) of RVBD stock. For reference, Elliott filed its 13D on 11/08/13 and Riverbed closed at $15.11 on 11/07/13
2. Adjusted EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation, payroll tax on stock-based compensation, amortization on intangibles, acquisition-related costs, inventory fair value adjustment, deferred revenue adjustment and other expenses as detailed in 8-K dated 01/30/14
3. Based on Thomson estimates
4. Adjusted EPS excludes stock-based compensation, payroll tax on stock-based compensation, amortization on intangibles, acquisition-related costs, inventory fair value adjustment, deferred revenue adjustment, income tax adjustments and other expenses as detailed in 8-K dated 01/30/14
[ 2 ]
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Riverbed Business Update Application Acceleration
SUMMARY DESCRIPTION
Includes the following products:
Steelhead (WAN optimization)
Granite (branch converged infrastructure)
Stingray (application delivery controller)
Whitewater (cloud storage appliance)
Growth concerns around portfolio of products
COMMENTARY
While a leader in WAN optimization, growth has slowed for Riverbed and the broader market. The Company faces:
Headwinds due to evolving protocol technologies
Commoditization risks
Difficulty in gaining additional market share given Riverbed already has significant share
WAN optimization continues to be influenced by:
Data center consolidation
Cloud computing
While the ADC market is expected to grow, Riverbed has a small ADC business with low overall market share. The ADC business:
Is a smaller contributor to the top-line
Has experienced recent quarterly flatness
Revenue Analysis
$900
$806
$800 $767
56
$700 $679 36
8
$600
$524
$500
$400
731 751
671
$300
524
$200
$100
$0
2010 2011 2012 2013
WAN Optimization Application Delivery Control
30%
28.0%
25%
20%
15%
10% 8.9%
5%
2.8%
0%
2011 2012 2013
WAN Optimization Growth Rate
Source: Company filings
[ 3 ]
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Riverbed Business Update Performance Management
SUMMARY DESCRIPTION
Products consist of application-aware NPM and APM solutions
Vast percentage of this portfolio was acquired with very little connection to the WAN optimization business
OPNET acquisition (12/12, $994mm) provided Riverbed access into the APM space
Riverbed entered the NPM market via its Mazu Networks acquisition (02/09, $50mm)
The Company also acquired CACE Technologies (10/10)1
COMMENTARY
Performance Management is expected to be a major growth driver for the overall business; however, growth since the OPNET acquisition has slowed considerably
The Company has had execution challenges following the transaction
MARKET SHARE
Compuware 13% CA
Technologies Other 11% 43% 2 HP
APM 9% IBM
8% Riverbed / Dell / Quest OPNET
Oracle
5% 6% 5%
Source: Capital IQ, Company filings, Wall Street research
1. Per 10-K filing, combined with Global Protocol acquisition for value of $27mm paid in cash
2. Based on vendor revenues for CY2012
3. Calculated as the pro forma 2012 revenue as reported in the 2012 10-K, less Riverbeds 2012 revenue adjusted to exclude OPNET contribution post transaction close on 12/17/12
4. Adjusted to remove OPNET contribution post transaction close on 12/17/12
5. Includes first full year of OPNET financials given transaction close on 12/17/12
$300
$250 $251 $238 $219
$200 $169
170 3 $150
169 5 251
$100 141
$50
67 4
28 49 $0
2010 2011 2012 2013 Performance Management OPNET
35%
29.5% 30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
8.7%
5.5%
0%
2011 2012 2013 Pro Forma Growth Rate Including OPNET
REVENUE ANALYSIS
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Riverbed Observations and Challenges
1 Challenging WAN optimization market outlook
Core WAN optimization market is a ~$1bn annual opportunity growing at only a 1% CAGR1
Given Riverbeds considerable market share, future market share gains may become more difficult to achieve
Market growth is being negatively affected by native application and simplified remote access protocols, which are impacting the need for Riverbed and others acceleration products
WAN optimization has a significant influence on Riverbeds overall growth given that 71% of Riverbeds total 2013 revenue was from WAN optimization
2 Expensive and complex OPNET transaction
Riverbed overpaid relative to comparable transactions for OPNET, which has had performance issues post acquisition close
Following the acquisition, overall Company EBIT margins have contracted
Completion of sales force integration missed initial targets
3 Status quo value proposition not comparable or superior to the transaction price offered
The OPNET transaction has not delivered sufficient returns to shareholders given the expensive price that was paid
Riverbed, as a standalone public company, is facing a number of near-term structural issues:
Heavy exposure to the government vertical, with federal budget as a concern
Analysts are predicting that the WAN optimization market will undergo a transition from hardware to converged software solutions, which could negatively impact ASPs
With the exception of Performance Management, most new products outside of WAN optimization are subscale
Numerous analysts are predicting a stock price decline if Elliott or other interested parties are not allowed the opportunity to pursue a transaction
1. Market data per Riverbed Vision and Strategy presentation as presented at Riverbeds Analyst Day 2013 on 11/18/13
[ 5 ]
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Relative Price PerformanceLTM Prior to Elliott Involvement
Prior to Elliotts expression of initial interest in the Company, Riverbed has severely underperformed the NASDAQ by nearly 70% as well as its peer group
140%
1
34.4%
130%
120%
16.3%
formance 110% Per Return 100%
90% 69.4% Indexed Underperformance
80%
70%
(35.0%)
60% 2 10/29/12 12/28/12 02/27/13 04/29/13 06/29/13 08/29/13 10/29/13
3
Riverbed 10-K Comparables Index NASDAQ Composite Index
Source: Bloomberg, Comparable companies as found in Riverbed 2013 10-K
1. Calculated using a total return calculation which includes impact of both stock price performance and dividends
2. Performance measured to 10/29/13, which represents the day before Elliott began its significant purchase(s) of RVBD stock
3. Indicates mean performance of Riverbeds 10-K peer group: CA (+45.2%), CSCO (+36.0%), CTXS (-8.9%), CPWR (+30.5%), FFIV (+2.9%), NTCT (+15.6%) and RDWR (-7.1%)
[ 6 ]
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Share Price PerformanceLTM Prior to Elliott Involvement
Weak guidance and loss of key management has set the stock on a disappointing trajectory
Feb. 7, 2013 Riverbed sets
24 35 record revenues and hits earnings, but announces weak Jul. 30, 2013 Riverbed Q1 FY13 guidance and the meets earnings estimates, resignation of its Cofounder but misses on revenue and 30 and CTO, Steve McCanne again guides below
22 forecasts for next quarter
Transaction Price @ $21.00
Apr. 29, 2013 Riverbed misses 25 20 earnings, delivering an adjusted EPS of $0.23 against an expected Oct. 28, 2013 Riverbed $0.24; CEO Jerry M. Kennelly meets Q3 FY13 earnings
20 attributed weak sales to lack of estimates, but misses top-
government business line revenue expectations 18 (in millions)15 16
Share Price ($)
Volume (in million)
10
14
5
12 0 1 10/29/12 12/28/12 2/27/13 4/29/13 6/29/13 8/29/13 10/29/13
Significant Underperformance Relative to NASDAQ Composite Index of 69%
Source: Capital IQ, Company filings
1. Performance measured to 10/29/13, which represents the day before Elliott began its significant purchase(s) of RVBD stock
[ 7 ]
|
Wall Street Analyst Observations
The feedback from the analyst community clearly states the current strategic interest from Elliott is supporting Riverbeds current stock price. In addition, there is analyst support for pursuing a strategic dialogue with Elliott
SUMMARY OF SELECTED EQUITY RESEARCH
Broker Commentary
Elliott raised its bid to $21/share in cash We continue to see this as a fair deal for investors considering the flat trajectory of the
core WANOP business and unproven results in opportunities like Granite.
February Rod Hall, 25, CFA 2014
The highlight of the quarter was Riverbeds Performance Management business, which grew 22% sequentially and returned to sales
levels from the time of the OPNET acquisition. While we were encouraged to see notable progress on the integration of OPNET, we
believe much of Riverbeds valuation is still driven off of acquisition prospects...
February Erik Suppiger 3, 2014
While we understand that other parties have indicated interest in acquiring Riverbed, we dont view the Company as a strategic
asset and question why the valuation would expand materially above $20. Before Elliotts involvement, the stock was trading at
~$15 or about 2.2x revs. We see downside risk if Elliott does not continue to pursue an acquisition of Riverbed and the valuation
Jonathan January Ruykhaver, 31, 2014 CFA becomes driven more by near-term fundamentals.
Riverbeds stock, in our view, reflects potential for a slight bid up from Elliott vs. the underlying fundamentals (the stock move
from $13-14 levels pre-Elliott to current $19-20 levels mostly reflect the activist interest in acquiring the company) we see risks
skewed to the downsideif Elliott were to withdraw their interest or if RVBD fails to execute to their 10% CY14 rev growth target.
January Brian Modoff 31, 2014
We are a bit skeptical, but admit the revenue comps become less challenging in the out quarters. All things considered, including
the Elliott-driven takeout premium implied in the current share price, we are comfortable with our HOLD rating and $20 target.
Eric January Martinuzzi, 31, 2014 CFA
With our estimates generally consistent with company expectations for the year, and with the recent re-rating in the stock
(following Elliott taking a stake and subsequently making a $19/share buyout offer), we find the risk-reward balanced with
limited upside.
January Amitabh 30, Passi 2014
Source: Wall Street research
Addresses Elloitts offer of:
19 $ 21 $
[ 8 ]
Equity Research Overview1
Elliotts offer represents a 22% premium over the adjusted average forward 12-month price target of the analyst community
($ in millions, except per share data) Offer to Adj. Offer to
Date Firm Rating Price Target Target (%) Price Target² Adj. Target (%)
02/10/14 Oppenheimer Outperform $24.00 (13%) $21.05 (0%)
02/03/14 FBN Securities Perform 21.00 - 18.42 14
02/03/14 JMP Securities Perform NA NA NA NA
01/31/14 BMO Capital Markets Perform 21.00 - 18.42 14
01/31/14 Cowen and Company Perform 18.00 17 15.79 33
01/31/14 Deutsche Bank Hold 16.00 31 14.04 50
01/31/14 Gabelli & Company Buy NA NA NA NA
01/31/14 Janney Capital Markets Buy 23.00 (9) 20.18 4
01/31/14 JP Morgan Neutral 15.00 40 13.16 60
01/31/14 Lake Street Capital Hold 20.00 5 17.54 20
01/31/14 MKM Partners Neutral 20.00 5 17.54 20
01/31/14 RBC Capital Markets Perform 16.00 31 14.04 50
01/31/14 Stephens Equal-Weight 20.00 5 17.54 20
01/31/14 The Juda Group Neutral NA NA NA NA
01/31/14 Wells Fargo Securities Perform 20.00³ 5 17.54 20
01/31/14 William Blair Outperform NA NA NA NA
01/31/14 Wunderlich Securities Hold 20.00 5 17.54 20
01/30/14 Piper Jaffray Neutral 19.00 11 16.67 26
01/30/14 Sterne Agee Neutral 20.00 5 17.54 20
01/30/14 UBS Neutral 20.00 5 17.54 20
Mean $19.56 7% $17.16 22%
Median 20.00 5 17.54 20
Source: Bloomberg, ThomsonOne, Wall Street research
1. Includes on-going, broker-related research available from data provider
2. Adjusted Price Target represents the forward 12-month Price Target discounted back to today using Riverbeds cost of equity of 14.0% per Bloomberg
3. Average of $19.00 to $21.00 price target range as presented in report
[ 9 ]
Overview of $21 Elliott Offer Price
As compared to comparable companies and transactions, Elliotts $21.00 offer represents
a higher premium and higher multiple than the median valuation metrics
Select Select
Transaction Public Companies 2 Precedent Transactions 3,4
($ in millions, except per share data) Price 1 Median Median
Share Price $21.00
Premium to Average Price:
Current (3/10/14) 3.9%
Unaffected (10/29/13) 42.9% 28.0%
Unaffected 30-day 5 45.2% 30.2%
Unaffected 60-day 5 40.9% 34.7%
Unaffected 90-day 5 37.6% 37.5%
Equity Value6 $3,601.1
Plus: Total Debt 525.0
Less: Total Cash (532.0)
Enterprise Value $3,594.1
Valuation Multiples:
TEV / Adj. EBITDALTM 7 13.5x 8.6x 11.3x
Consensus Estimates
TEV / Adj. EBITDACY2014E 7 10.2x 8.2x 9.4x
Price / Adj. EPSCY2014E 8 18.4x 15.5x
Source: Company filings, ThomsonOne
1. Balance sheet and LTM metrics as of 12/31/13; Total Debt includes current maturities of long-term borrowings and borrowings, non-current, net of current maturities; Total Cash includes cash and
cash equivalents, short-term investments and long-term investments
2. Select Public Companies identified within Riverbed 2013 10-K, excluding CPWR due to negative growth; BRCD, EMC, JNPR and NTAP were also added
3. Select Precedent Transactions premia per public technology company transactions of US$1bn and above in the last three years
4. Select Precedent Transactions valuation multiples based on transactions of US$1bn and above in the last three years involving targets with positive, sub-10% LTM-NTM expected revenue growth per
consensus estimates
5. 30-day, 60-day and 90-day as of 10/29/13, which represents the day before Elliott began its significant purchase(s) of RVBD stock
6. Calculated using the treasury stock method incorporating options outstanding and restricted stock units
7. Adjusted EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation, payroll tax on stock-based compensation, amortization on intangibles, acquisition-related costs, inventory fair value adjustment, deferred
revenue adjustment and other expenses as detailed in 8-K dated 01/30/14
8. Adjusted EPS excludes stock-based compensation, payroll tax on stock-based compensation, amortization on intangibles, acquisition-related costs, inventory fair value adjustment, deferred revenue
adjustment, income tax adjustments and other expenses as detailed in 8-K dated 01/30/14
[10]
Select Public Companies1
At $21.00 per share, Riverbeds implied multiples are higher than the median multiples
for selected large, enterprise IT public companies
TRADING MULTIPLES
Enterprise Value /
Stock 52 % of 52 Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA P / E
($ in millions, except per share data) Price Wk. High Week High Value Value LTM CY14E LTM CY14E CY14E
NetScout Systems $38.43 $38.84 98.9% $1,665 $1,483 3.9x 3.5x 13.7x 12.1x 24.1x
F5 Networks 111.97 114.78 97.6 8,573 7,337 4.8 4.2 12.5 10.8 20.7
Radware 17.26 19.22 89.8 816 531 2.8 2.5 16.3 12.9 21.3
Citrix Systems 60.75 76.33 79.6 11,450 9,836 3.4 3.1 11.8 10.4 20.8
EMC 27.13 27.13 100.0 56,974 48,030 2.1 2.0 6.9 6.3 14.0
Cisco Systems 21.69 26.38 82.2 115,456 84,607 1.8 1.8 5.6 5.2 10.8
Juniper Networks 26.28 27.95 94.0 13,918 10,763 2.3 2.2 10.2 8.4 17.1
NetApp 37.81 45.85 82.5 13,104 9,030 1.4 1.4 6.7 6.0 12.9
Brocade 10.14 10.20 99.4 4,694 4,286 1.9 2.0 7.0 6.3 12.3
CA Technologies 32.82 34.43 95.3 14,952 13,880 3.0 3.1 7.0 7.9 12.7
Median 2.5x 2.3x 8.6x 8.2x 15.5x
Riverbed Consensus @ $21.00 $21.00 $22.28 94.3% $3,601 $3,594 3.4x 3.2x 13.5x 10.2x 18.4x
OPERATING STATISTICS
Revenue Revenue Revenue
Revenue Growth Growth Growth EBITDA Margin
($ in millions, except per share data) LTM CY14E CY15E 12-13 13-14 14-15 LTM CY14E
NetScout Systems $383 $425 $480 11.7% 10.9% 13.1% 28.2% 29.0%
F5 Networks 1,522 1,743 1,960 7.2 14.5 12.4 38.5 38.9
Radware 193 213 233 2.0 10.4 9.5 16.9 19.4
Citrix Systems 2,918 3,188 3,483 12.8 9.2 9.3 28.5 29.7
EMC 23,222 24,507 26,207 6.9 5.5 6.9 30.2 31.3
Cisco Systems 47,873 46,816 49,607 1.3 (2.2) 6.0 31.3 34.9
Juniper Networks 4,669 4,940 5,194 7.0 5.8 5.1 22.6 25.9
NetApp 6,393 6,462 6,730 1.2 1.1 4.1 21.0 23.4
Brocade 2,199 2,196 2,253 (3.0) (0.1) 2.6 27.9 30.8
CA Technologies 4,582 4,491 4,588 (2.1) (2.0) 2.2 43.3 39.1
2 |
|
Median $3,750 $3,839 $4,036 4.5% 5.7% 6.4% 28.4% 30.3%
Riverbed Consensus @ $21.00 $1,057 $1,141 $1,233 5.5% 7.9% 8.1% 25.2% 30.9%
Source: Capital IQ, Company filings, ThomsonOne
Note: As of 03/10/14; Companies ordered based on 2014E-2015E revenue growth [ 11 ]
1. Comparable companies as found in Riverbed 2013 10-K, excluding CPWR due to negative growth; BRCD, EMC, JNPR and NTAP were also added
2. Growth for 2012A-2013A pro forma for OPNET transaction, which closed on 12/17/12, per 2012 10-K
Select Transactions Analysis
Riverbed is more closely comparable to the lower growth, large, enterprise technology companies
SELECT ENTERPRISE TECHNOLOGY TRANSACTIONS LAST THREE YEARS
($ in millions)
Equity Enterprise TEV / Revenue TEV / EBITDA
Ann. Date Acquiror Target Value Value LTM NTM¹ LTM NTM¹
05/06/13 Bain & Golden Gate BMC Software $ 7,053 $ 6,812 3.1x 2.9x 7.7x 8.1x
11/01/12 RedPrairie JDA Software Group 1,956 1,818 2.7 2.5 10.5 9.4
06/25/12 Dell Quest Software 2,527 2,403 2.7 2.5 12.8 8.5
07/11/11 NCR Radiant Systems 1,191 1,101 3.0 2.8 17.3 16.9
03/11/11 Golden Gate Infor 1,958 1,878 2.5 2.3 11.3 10.7
Median 2.7x 2.5x 11.3x 9.4x
Riverbed Consensus @ $21.00 $ 3,601 $ 3,594 3.4x 3.2x 13.5x 10.2x
At $21.00 per share, Riverbeds implied multiples are higher than the median multiples for transactions involving such companies
Source: Capital IQ, Company filings, ThomsonOne
Note: Precedent transactions reflect transactions of US$1bn and above in the last three years involving technology targets with positive, sub-10% LTM-NTM expected revenue growth per consensus
estimates [ 12 ]
1. Based on Thomson estimates
|
Premiums Paid Analysis
At $21.00 per share, the Elliott offer presents a more compelling premium than the median premia paid on public technology company transactions of $1bn or more
SELECT TECHNOLOGY TRANSACTIONS LAST THREE YEARS
($ in millions) Purchase Premium
Enterprise 1-Day 1-Month 60-Day 90-Day
Ann. Date Acquiror Target Value Prior Avg. Avg. Avg.
02/24/14 1 RF Micro Devices TriQuint Semiconductor $1,515 32.6% 18.1% 20.1% 21.7%
12/20/13 Oracle Responsys 1,597 38.3 49.6 56.0 58.1
12/16/13 Avago Technologies LSI 5,902 46.9 44.6 43.9 45.5
09/09/13 Koch Industries Molex 6,507 31.2 28.9 28.5 29.2
07/23/13 Cisco Sourcefire 2,194 28.6 33.4 36.8 38.3
06/04/13 Salesforce.com ExactTarget 2,539 52.7 50.2 57.9 54.5
05/28/13 1 ServiceLink Lender Processing Services 3,881 15.1 24.5 30.9 34.1
05/06/13 1 Bain & Golden Gate BMC Software 6,812 14.5 13.9 15.7 17.4
02/05/13 1 Silver Lake Dell 18,538 26.4 30.1 34.7 38.1
02/04/13 Oracle Acme Packet 1,687 22.2 23.7 29.3 37.5
11/01/12 RedPrairie JDA software Group 1,818 18.0 33.3 38.0 41.2
10/22/12 1 Permira Advisors & Spectra Equity Ancestry.com 1,818 41.4 39.0 35.5 37.0
10/17/12 ASML Holding Cymer 2,435 72.6 61.4 52.3 47.8
08/27/12 IBM Kenexa 1,307 42.0 56.9 66.0 63.1
08/27/12 1 Thoma Bravo Deltek 1,029 5.5 12.5 17.6 20.6
06/25/12 1 Dell Quest Software 2,403 44.3 36.4 38.9 42.4
05/22/12 SAP Ariba 4,411 19.6 19.3 25.9 31.4
02/09/12 Oracle Taleo 1,805 18.1 24.7 21.6 26.1
12/14/11 Lam Research Novellus Systems 2,908 28.0 30.2 32.3 39.3
12/03/11 SAP SuccessFactors 3,516 52.4 53.6 56.9 61.8
10/24/11 Oracle Rightnow Technologies 1,521 19.6 22.8 28.7 33.4
09/12/11 Broadcom NetLogic Microsystems 3,442 56.7 68.8 54.0 44.8
07/11/11 NCR Radiant Systems 1,101 27.6 37.1 38.7 43.2
07/01/11 1 Providence Equity Partners Blackboard 1,767 21.1 22.0 25.0 21.0
05/04/11 Applied Materials Varian Semiconductor 4,469 55.4 40.7 38.7 37.5
04/27/11 CenturyLink Savvis 2,963 11.0 10.2 13.2 16.1
04/01/11 Providence Equity Partners SRA International 1,782 10.2 15.1 15.0 18.1
03/28/11 eBay GSI Commerce 2,139 58.3 59.4 48.6 42.2
03/11/11 1 Golden Gate Capital Lawson Software 1,878 13.9 11.4 15.6 17.5
Median 28.0% 30.2% 34.7% 37.5%
Riverbed @ $21.002 42.9% 45.2% 40.9% 37.6%
Elliotts offer exceeds the median premia paid
Source: Capital IQ, Company filings
Note: Precedent transactions premia per public technology company transactions of US$1bn and above in the last three years
1. Premiums calculated using unaffected share price prior to leak or catalyst event
2. Performance measured to 10/29/13, which represents the day before Elliott began its significant purchase(s) of RVBD stock
[ 13 ]
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