Reserve for Property-Liability Insurance Claims and Claims Expense

The Company establishes reserves for claims and claims expense on reported and unreported claims of insured losses. The Company’s reserving process takes into account known facts and interpretations of circumstances and factors including the Company’s experience with similar cases, actual claims paid, historical trends involving claim payment patterns and pending levels of unpaid claims, loss management programs, product mix and contractual terms, changes in law and regulation, judicial decisions, and economic conditions. In the normal course of business, the Company may also supplement its claims processes by utilizing third party adjusters, appraisers, engineers, inspectors, and other professionals and information sources to assess and settle catastrophe and non-catastrophe related claims. The effects of inflation are implicitly considered in the reserving process.

Because reserves are estimates of unpaid portions of losses that have occurred, including incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) losses, the establishment of appropriate reserves, including reserves for catastrophes, is an inherently uncertain and complex process. The ultimate cost of losses may vary materially from recorded amounts, which are based on management’s best estimates. The highest degree of uncertainty is associated with reserves for losses incurred in the current reporting period as it contains the greatest proportion of losses that have not been reported or settled. The Company regularly updates its reserve estimates as new information becomes available and as events unfold that may affect the resolution of unsettled claims. Changes in prior year reserve estimates, which may be material, are reported in property-liability insurance claims and claims expense in the Consolidated Statements of Operations in the period such changes are determined.

Activity in the reserve for property-liability insurance claims and claims expense is summarized as follows:



($ in millions)	2015		2014			2013
Balance as of January 1	$	22,923	$	21,857		$	21,288
Less reinsurance recoverables	5,694		4,664			4,010
Net balance as of January 1	17,229		17,193			17,278
Incurred claims and claims expense related to:
Current year	20,953		19,512			18,032
Prior years	81		(84		)	(121		)
Total incurred	21,034		19,428			17,911
Claims and claims expense paid related to:
Current year	13,660		12,924			11,658
Prior years	6,626		6,468			6,338
Total paid	20,286		19,392			17,996
Net balance as of December 31	17,977		17,229			17,193
Plus reinsurance recoverables	5,892		5,694			4,664
Balance as of December 31	$	23,869	$	22,923		$	21,857

Incurred claims and claims expense represents the sum of paid losses and reserve changes in the calendar year. This expense includes losses from catastrophes of $1.72 billion, $1.99 billion and $1.25 billion in 2015, 2014 and 2013, respectively, net of reinsurance and other recoveries (see Note 10). Catastrophes are an inherent risk of the property-liability insurance business that have contributed to, and will continue to contribute to, material year-to-year fluctuations in the Company’s results of operations and financial position.

The Company calculates and records a single best reserve estimate for losses from catastrophes, in conformance with generally accepted actuarial standards. As a result, management believes that no other estimate is better than the recorded amount. Due to the uncertainties involved, including the factors described above, the ultimate cost of losses may vary materially from recorded amounts, which are based on management’s best estimates. Accordingly, management believes that it is not practical to develop a meaningful range for any such changes in losses incurred.

During 2015, incurred claims and claims expense related to prior years was primarily composed of net increases in auto reserves of $30 million primarily due to claim severity development for bodily injury coverage that was more than expected and litigation settlements, net decreases in homeowners reserves of $24 million due to favorable non-catastrophe reserve reestimates, net increases in other reserves of $22 million, and net increases in Discontinued Lines and Coverages reserves of $53 million. Incurred claims and claims expense includes favorable catastrophe loss reestimates of $15 million, net of reinsurance and other recoveries.

During 2014, incurred claims and claims expense related to prior years was primarily composed of net decreases in auto reserves of $238 million primarily due to claim severity development that was better than expected, net increases in homeowners reserves of $29 million due to unfavorable non-catastrophe reserve reestimates, net increases in other reserves of $13 million, and net increases in Discontinued Lines and Coverages reserves of $112 million. Incurred claims and claims expense includes unfavorable catastrophe loss reestimates of $43 million, net of reinsurance and other recoveries.

During 2013, incurred claims and claims expense related to prior years was primarily composed of net decreases in auto reserves of $237 million primarily due to claim severity development that was better than expected, net decreases in homeowners reserves of $5 million due to favorable non-catastrophe reserve reestimates, net decreases in other reserves of $21 million, and net increases in Discontinued Lines and Coverages reserves of $142 million. Incurred claims and claims expense includes favorable catastrophe loss reestimates of $88 million, net of reinsurance and other recoveries.

Management believes that the reserve for property-liability insurance claims and claims expense, net of reinsurance recoverables, is appropriately established in the aggregate and adequate to cover the ultimate net cost of reported and unreported claims arising from losses which had occurred by the date of the Consolidated Statements of Financial Position based on available facts, technology, laws and regulations.

For further discussion of asbestos and environmental reserves, see Note 14.