EX-99.2 3 dex992.htm ACE LIMITED GLOBAL LOSS TRIANGLES SUPPLEMENT ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles Supplement

Exhibit 99.2

 

LOGO

 

Global Loss Triangles Supplement

 

December 31, 2003

 

Investor Contact

 

Helen M. Wilson

Phone: (441) 299-9283

Fax: (441) 292-8675

email: investorrelations@ace.bm

   This report is for informational purposes only. It should be read in conjunction with documents filed by ACE Limited with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q.
   Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
     Any forward-looking statements made in this document reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.
     For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements could be affected by the frequency of unpredictable catastrophic events, actual loss experience which differs from the Company’s assumptions, uncertainties in the reserving or settlement process, new theories of liability, judicial and legislative developments, litigation tactics, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverable, credit developments among reinsurers, pricing and policy term trends and actual market conditions and developments, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2003, the Company’s quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and in the Company’s earnings press release, which are available on the Company’s website. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Global Loss Triangles Supplement

Table of Contents

 

          Page

I.

   Overview     
     - Executive Summary    2
     - Reconciliation of Global Loss Triangles with GAAP December 31, 2003 Balances    3
     - Reserve Evaluation Considerations    4

II.

   Insurance - North American     
     - Highlights - Insurance North American Segment    5
     - Workers Compensation    6
     - General Liability    7
     - Other Casualty    8
     - Non-Casualty    9

III.

   Insurance - Overseas General     
     - Highlights - Insurance Overseas General Segment    10
     - Casualty    11
     - Non-Casualty    12
     - Personal Accident    13

IV.

   Global Reinsurance (Global Re)     
     - Highlights - Global Re Segment    14
     - Casualty    15
     - Non-Casualty    16

V.

   Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2003 10-K Disclosure    17

VI.

   Glossary    19

 

Page 1


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Overview

Executive Summary

 

The Global Loss Triangles (GLT) supplement is comprised of the following information:

 

For direct business — accident year triangles of a) net paid loss plus paid allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE) and b) net reported loss plus paid ALAE (i.e. excluding IBNR) for the ten calendar years ending December 31, 2003.

 

For reinsurance business — treaty year triangles of a) net paid loss plus paid ALAE and b) net reported loss plus paid ALAE (i.e. excluding IBNR) for the ten calendar years ending December 31, 2003.

 

Net earned premium for each of the ten accident/treaty years ending December 31, 2003.

 

The triangle data are provided in groupings under three of ACE’s four SEC reporting segments:

 

Insurance North American Segment

 

  Workers Compensation (WC)

 

  General Liability (GL)

 

  Other Casualty

 

  Non-Casualty

 

Insurance Overseas General Segment

 

  Casualty

 

  Non-Casualty

 

  Personal Accident

 

Global Reinsurance Segment

 

  Casualty

 

  Non-Casualty

 

Furthermore, the GLT supplement also contains the following:

 

A reconciliation of the GLT reserve balances with ACE’s published GAAP reserve balance ending December 31, 2003.

 

A discussion of some factors to consider when analyzing loss reserve triangles.

 

Commentary highlighting aspects of the GLT triangles and their interpretations.

 

Relevant discussion from our 2003 10-K addressing ACE’s reserving process.

 

Contents

  Page 2


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Overview

Reconciliation of GLT with GAAP December 31, 2003 Balances

  
  

 

The net reserves (case plus IBNR) associated with the GLT can be reconciled back to ACE Limited’s December 31, 2003 closing GAAP P&C net reserve balance as follows:

 

     ($millions)

GAAP Net P&C Reserve Balance at December 31, 2003

   $ 13,963

Less: World Trade Center Reserve 1

     323

Financial Solutions 2

     2,288

ACE Cap Re and ACE Guarantee Re 3

     472

Bad Debt

     558

Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense (ULAE)

     567

Excluded Large Loss 4

     78

AGM Excluded Reserves 5

     145

Commutations 6

     299

Other 7

     489

Plus: Recoveries from retroactive reinsurance contracts 8

     2,642
    

GLT Net Reserve Balance at December 31, 2003

   $ 11,386
    

The GLT Net Reserve Balance can be split as follows:

      

Accident Years 1994 through 2003

   $ 7,445

Accident Years 1993 and prior

     3,941
    

     $ 11,386
    

 

The triangles are constructed to exclude the effects of shifting exchange rates. Loss and ALAE data denominated in foreign currencies are converted to US dollars at December 2003 exchange rates.

 

As indicated above, certain blocks of loss and ALAE reserves were excluded for the following reasons:

 

1. The paid and reported losses for WTC have been removed from the triangles to avoid projection distortions. The $323 million reserve balance for WTC is consistent with prior disclosures of $650 million net loss less $327 million paid as of December 31, 2003.

 

2. With respect to the Financial Solutions business, traditional actuarial methods such as loss development triangles are inappropriate for evaluating reserves. The book is made up of a relatively small number of large heterogeneous accounts, each account having its own unique terms. As a result, each account is reviewed and reserved for individually.

 

3. ACE sold a majority interest in ACE Capital Re and ACE Guaranty Re via an IPO in early 2004. As a result, on a go-forward basis, these reserves are no longer on ACE’s balance sheet. Therefore, these losses were excluded from the GLT.

 

4. To avoid projection distortion, an integrated occurrence from a single insured has been removed from the 1995 and 1996 accident years of the Insurance North American General Liability triangle. The paid amounts as of December 31, 2003 are $77 million in 1995 and $1 million in 1996, while the reported amounts are $80 million and $76 million, respectively.

 

5. Due to the complexity of allocating its net paid and reported data from treaty year to accident year, the ACE Global Markets Property, Energy, and Personal Accident book was excluded from the GLT. However, the GL, Professional Liability, Aviation, and Marine books from accident year 1997 onwards have been included in the Casualty triangles.

 

6. The increases in loss reserves relating to a 2003 commutation have been excluded to avoid distorting the loss history.

 

7. Includes blocks of reserves associated with prior years, or representing reserves for which loss development methods are not appropriate or other items.

 

8. The Global Loss Triangles are presented gross of retroactive reinsurance, which is consistent with the US statutory Schedule P treatment. In general, these treaties tend to distort the net loss history and prevent a useful analysis. ACE does not utilize this type of reinsurance in the normal course of business. The retroactive treaties we have on our books relate to acquisitions made by ACE, and the majority of the expected recoveries relate to accident years 1993 and prior. As we have previously disclosed, $2.375 billion (or 90%) of the total retroactive recoveries relate to the NICO Brandywine cover, which was purchased at the time of ACE’s acquisition of the CIGNA P&C business. The remaining amount of $267 million relates to the ACE Westchester acquisition.

 

Reconciliation

  Page 3


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Overview

Reserve Evaluation Considerations

 

We have actuarial staff in each of our operating segments who track insurance reserves and regularly evaluate the levels of loss reserves, taking into consideration factors that may impact the ultimate loss reserves. This is accomplished not only by employing a variety of actuarial methods, but also by applying judgment to help quantify the impact of these variables.

 

Considerable caution should be used when attempting to analyze reserve adequacy based on aggregated triangles. It is rare that the data is so consistent, homogeneous, and static that a valid analysis is possible without exercising substantial judgement. Results can be distorted by both industry-wide and company-specific factors. Below is a non-exhaustive list of possible pitfalls.

 

Many methods for judging reserve adequacy (e.g. Stanard-Buhlmann, Least Squares) assume that expected loss ratios (ELRs) do not change over time. In fact, ELRs can change substantially from year to year due to many reasons (e.g. change in rates, change in mix of business, etc.). Recently, a hard market has produced higher rates and more restrictive terms and conditions for most lines, which should result in lower ELRs. If these rate changes are not taken into consideration, indicated reserves will most likely be overstated, or stated another way, misleading reserve deficiencies may be indicated. While we consider ACE’s actual rate change information to be proprietary, there are a number of public sources that can be used as a proxy to adjust loss ratios to a more appropriate level. These sources include, but are not limited to, the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) Commercial Insurance Lines survey, Lloyd’s of London Premium Rating Index, and Tillinghast-Towers Perrin Directors & Officers Liability Survey.

 

Changes in inflation rates distort any reserve analysis based on loss triangles. If expected future inflation is lower (higher) than historical inflation rates, needed reserves may be overstated (understated) as a result, and appropriate adjustments should be made. If inflation rates are stable, no adjustment may be required.

 

Many other changes and distortions (e.g. change in reinsurance structure, large losses, change in settlement rates, etc.) can skew the results of a reserve analysis based on aggregated triangles. These distortions are not always easily corrected for, but we have attempted to identify and quantify them wherever possible.

 

Loss development methods can be particularly volatile at the first and second evaluation points, especially for longer-tailed lines. In those situations, we would recommend relying on an expected loss technique. One expected loss technique not addressed in Feldblum’s paper is the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, which can be modified to incorporate information on changing premium rates in an analysis of reserve adequacy.

 

There are a number of valid prospective tests of reserve adequacy that can be performed based on consolidated triangles. One excellent source of information on the various methods is Completing and Using Schedule P by Sholom Feldblum (1) . It is strongly recommended that anyone attempting to analyze reserves presented in loss triangles be familiar with the methods detailed in the section entitled “Loss Reserve Adequacy Testing – Prospective Valuation.”

 

(1) Publicly available on the Casualty Actuarial Society’s web site at the following address http://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/02fforum/02ff353.pdf

 

Considerations

  Page 4


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Highlights - Insurance North American Segment

  

 

The triangles are provided by GAAP reporting segment (Insurance North American, Insurance Overseas General, and Global Re) which is consistent with how ACE manages its business on an aggregate basis.

 

Insurance North American Segment

 

The Insurance North American segment covers business written by ACE USA (including business written in other ACE entities but managed by ACE USA), ACE Westchester Specialty, ACE Canada, and ACE Bermuda. A significant portion of ACE Bermuda’s exposure is from the US, though a portion does reside in Europe.

 

There are three important points with regards to the “Prior” line. First, the “Prior” line shown here is gross of retroactive reinsurance (NICO treaties). Second, it would be incorrect to apply a single loss development factor to the “Prior” line, as it does not represent a single accident year but the total activity in accident years prior to 1993. Third, nearly all of ACE’s Asbestos and Environmental exposure is contained in the “Prior” line of the General Liability triangles. Development factors derived from loss triangles are inappropriate for analysis of this exposure. We will be completing our annual Asbestos review during the 4th quarter.

 

Insurance North American – Workers Compensation

 

The US Statutory Schedule P filings for Workers Compensation (WC) only show a portion of ACE’s total WC business. At year end 2000, there was an internal reinsurance transaction between the ACE American Pool and another ACE entity whereby 100% of the outstanding liabilities for the 2000 and prior accident years and 100% of any future development (net of third party reinsurance) was ceded outside the ACE American Pool. The WC triangle contains all the original WC business written by ACE’s US based direct operations.

 

ACE USA’s WC experience includes both middle market and Fortune 1000 business. The middle market business was predominantly guaranteed cost, while the majority of the Fortune 1000 business varies among retro, guaranteed cost, high deductible, and fronted captive business.

 

Contained in the triangles are a few instances of modest negative case reserves (calculated by taking the difference between the reported and paid at a given development age for a particular accident year). This is typically due to either salvage and subrogation or timing differences associated primarily with ceded reinsurance. For Workers Compensation and other Casualty lines, it will usually be the latter. For Non-Casualty lines, it tends to be the former. In our view, these negative case reserves will not significantly distort an analysis nor detract from the usefulness of the information provided.

 

Insurance North American – General Liability

 

The triangles consist of Primary General Liability, Excess Liability, Professional Liability, and Products Liability. The Primary General Liability and US Excess Liability are written on an occurrence basis and represent the largest part, while the Professional Liability and Bermuda Excess Liability are written on a claims made basis. Over the past three years, ACE USA has grown its General Liability book, while Excess Liability business has been de-emphasized by ACE Bermuda. In addition, given the recent hard market in Professional Liability, each of the four entities has grown its Professional Liability book over the past two years.

 

Furthermore, the underwriting cycle has been particularly pronounced for Professional Liability, with a soft market throughout the late 1990’s and into 2001, followed by a rapid hardening in the last three years. These changes in price adequacy should be incorporated into any analysis of reserve levels.

 

ACE Bermuda writes on a “claims first reported” form which means that coverage is triggered when news of a potential claim is received, potentially well in advance of a claim being filed. In addition, Bermuda typically writes at high attachment points, particularly on its Excess Liability book.

 

Finally, in ACE’s US statutory Schedule P, Warranty business appears in Other Liability – Occurrence. However, Warranty claims are settled quickly, and case reserves are generally not established. This makes it very different from the other business included in the Other Liability line. Warranty products are multi-year contracts, and rather than establish IBNR reserves for future claims, premium earnings are deferred over the life of the contracts and an unearned premium reserve is held which is reviewed and tested for adequacy (this is consistent with industry practice). Therefore, we have removed data associated with Warranty business from the triangles.

 

Insurance North American – Other Casualty

 

These triangles consist of the non-WC and non-GL long tailed business. The lines included are Auto Liability, Commercial Multi-Peril, Political Risk, Marine, and Aviation Liability. The last two lines are the main components of the Special Liability line in ACE’s US Schedule P.

 

Insurance North American – Non-Casualty

 

The vast majority of business in this triangle consists of Property exposures. In addition, there is Auto Physical Damage, Fidelity and Surety, and the “Other” line from ACE’s US annual statement, which includes Personal Accident exposure.

 

Highlights NA

  Page 5


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

North American Workers Compensation

As of 12/31/03

In $US thousands

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    351,364    593,933    814,491    999,642    1,158,392    1,306,608    1,403,592    1,504,176    1,590,801

1994

   50,429    112,195    142,954    171,602    187,551    199,655    211,640    219,136    225,839    229,592

1995

   91,647    195,392    235,901    272,906    287,348    300,623    312,405    314,270    313,106     

1996

   45,152    91,676    114,852    152,208    187,477    209,828    231,149    247,534          

1997

   57,279    108,517    147,755    170,829    187,468    201,703    210,947               

1998

   67,048    146,370    182,164    209,321    228,520    243,969                    

1999

   37,499    82,442    122,567    153,706    180,550                         

2000

   28,321    48,850    107,490    154,389                              

2001

   15,649    41,446    59,041                                   

2002

   27,778    76,748                                        

2003

   38,981                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle                                   

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   1,618,828    1,816,513    1,903,648    2,037,010    2,134,655    2,240,538    2,271,844    2,298,927    2,453,737    2,518,407

1994

   181,623    232,111    240,686    253,630    264,479    274,548    280,358    282,723    287,745    295,173

1995

   176,643    263,761    290,930    319,976    338,017    344,411    354,482    356,036    352,118     

1996

   90,200    129,279    141,897    157,752    181,429    201,350    238,322    245,561          

1997

   126,339    180,864    207,311    220,188    231,718    242,951    245,856               

1998

   147,610    218,692    239,049    264,940    277,404    281,471                    

1999

   92,555    128,585    160,598    202,697    216,983                         

2000

   38,790    80,989    134,396    177,630                              

2001

   29,121    61,226    70,100                                   

2002

   55,662    123,752                                        

2003

   100,170                                             
Net Earned Premium

Accident

Year


  

NEP


                                            
                                               

1994

   582,023                                             

1995

   500,005                                             

1996

   440,059                                             

1997

   409,510                                             

1998

   435,467                                             

1999

   332,714                                             

2000

   209,661                                             

2001

   272,925                                             

2002

   381,693                                             

2003

   577,172                                             

 

NA WC    Page 6


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

North American General Liability

As of 12/31/03

In $US thousands

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    653,408    1,072,425    1,790,859    2,426,197    3,233,168    3,623,830    3,909,749    4,159,684    4,482,369

1994

   15,889    68,462    112,534    150,137    185,344    210,369    307,156    321,577    320,977    338,813

1995

   24,568    79,377    108,468    133,560    163,086    187,675    202,406    209,229    204,732     

1996

   10,454    44,945    86,823    132,920    173,980    194,203    213,667    230,746          

1997

   7,350    45,879    79,515    106,989    136,500    167,576    193,440               

1998

   13,033    50,479    131,617    182,215    173,541    218,726                    

1999

   29,667    127,970    194,244    224,959    272,293                         

2000

   54,768    110,707    135,974    235,368                              

2001

   26,271    119,977    135,215                                   

2002

   32,049    111,345                                        

2003

   41,961                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle                              

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   1,439,736    2,035,359    2,517,203    2,958,507    3,360,151    3,750,645    4,145,831    4,386,677    4,437,902    4,797,422

1994

   59,893    157,653    200,235    218,675    274,806    282,089    348,420    346,432    347,623    353,638

1995

   74,947    137,493    167,707    183,789    214,394    252,888    263,980    257,843    260,235     

1996

   48,300    86,372    126,176    159,159    199,513    224,255    240,770    244,586          

1997

   51,029    130,588    170,585    185,709    219,265    225,803    217,928               

1998

   42,704    115,317    184,411    245,956    235,333    235,066                    

1999

   63,820    174,795    248,361    289,522    305,985                         

2000

   88,211    197,294    300,351    350,974                              

2001

   65,999    202,873    253,219                                   

2002

   84,694    144,019                                        

2003

   76,531                                             
Net Earned Premium                                        

Accident

Year


  

NEP


                                            
                                               

1994

   897,979                                             

1995

   630,995                                             

1996

   612,624                                             

1997

   529,832                                             

1998

   459,322                                             

1999

   393,026                                             

2000

   427,879                                             

2001

   572,303                                             

2002

   658,235                                             

2003

   1,429,871                                             

 

NA GL    Page 7


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

North American Other Casualty

As of 12/31/03

In $US thousands

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    572,130    955,296    1,233,504    1,407,088    1,603,891    1,729,762    1,849,405    1,932,962    1,998,860

1994

   299,002    561,615    711,582    813,753    873,395    912,053    922,547    933,059    953,655    958,586

1995

   213,711    425,508    514,287    579,689    603,185    622,877    635,935    642,833    645,399     

1996

   265,305    515,565    603,365    654,811    686,702    713,644    722,534    728,116          

1997

   192,385    333,731    401,466    437,957    462,389    475,603    491,726               

1998

   220,526    383,000    471,039    516,125    545,458    558,519                    

1999

   170,013    281,063    346,545    384,889    403,668                         

2000

   206,774    345,447    386,000    423,460                              

2001

   100,088    195,778    247,647                                   

2002

   107,520    179,196                                        

2003

   124,688                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle                         

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   1,279,577    1,530,579    1,658,054    1,733,434    1,761,569    1,936,289    2,047,066    2,149,945    2,316,796    2,296,754

1994

   625,666    797,049    860,797    919,252    938,786    950,242    945,736    949,875    963,641    965,733

1995

   430,516    560,552    598,962    634,192    633,698    637,833    640,727    651,059    653,097     

1996

   479,662    627,318    696,174    706,581    717,698    732,235    732,726    737,526          

1997

   336,063    425,376    473,438    486,607    495,667    505,478    514,862               

1998

   423,404    489,847    525,020    560,979    567,403    583,952                    

1999

   309,333    344,940    394,496    433,660    442,838                         

2000

   322,300    404,754    417,369    454,322                              

2001

   150,648    239,718    286,009                                   

2002

   185,977    243,770                                        

2003

   195,731                                             
Net Earned Premium                              

Accident

Year


   NEP

                                            
                                               

1994

   1,189,587                                             

1995

   994,785                                             

1996

   906,133                                             

1997

   737,334                                             

1998

   598,251                                             

1999

   918,732                                             

2000

   556,550                                             

2001

   503,634                                             

2002

   572,310                                             

2003

   849,132                                             

 

NA Other Cas    Page 8


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

North American Non-Casualty

As of 12/31/03

In $US thousands

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    34,706    110,598    130,561    136,927    124,323    136,663    143,385    145,778    146,935

1994

   248,333    313,409    326,691    342,134    358,921    369,946    372,498    367,750    368,736    370,318

1995

   143,155    232,571    247,050    257,792    263,763    264,772    266,930    265,537    272,501     

1996

   139,883    221,963    242,138    258,683    257,819    259,294    261,244    262,729          

1997

   132,477    207,166    238,631    241,457    246,674    255,088    254,382               

1998

   192,158    319,577    345,684    357,287    363,770    368,112                    

1999

   184,455    266,046    280,699    286,111    285,781                         

2000

   264,630    379,125    387,552    395,738                              

2001

   205,082    278,237    272,233                                   

2002

   301,636    401,283                                        

2003

   381,183                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle                              

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   123,417    138,821    184,978    197,289    218,539    199,652    194,558    214,533    149,816    169,684

1994

   320,277    351,422    360,287    343,115    356,444    386,630    387,019    373,636    373,560    374,801

1995

   204,832    240,477    252,831    261,567    267,942    265,333    270,435    266,173    272,766     

1996

   269,402    267,945    272,438    282,791    275,446    268,948    272,770    270,877          

1997

   219,093    250,922    265,935    251,001    250,442    257,606    251,286               

1998

   335,191    348,832    353,924    359,752    368,872    370,907                    

1999

   241,386    299,699    291,892    299,966    286,359                         

2000

   397,144    437,345    437,399    426,026                              

2001

   217,600    313,520    302,005                                   

2002

   330,510    407,764                                        

2003

   466,750                                             
Net Earned Premium                              

Accident

Year


    
   NEP

                                            

1994

   540,964                                             

1995

   423,857                                             

1996

   507,081                                             

1997

   525,072                                             

1998

   519,608                                             

1999

   503,846                                             

2000

   661,112                                             

2001

   623,325                                             

2002

   895,477                                             

2003

   880,353                                             

 

NA NCas

  Page 9


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Highlights - Insurance Overseas General Segment

 

Insurance Overseas General Segment

 

The Insurance Overseas General segment includes business written by ACE International and ACE Global Markets (AGM). ACE International has four regions, with the majority of the business located in Europe. AGM business is written in the Lloyd’s market and is mostly US business. An important reserving consideration is that ACE analyzes its AGM business on a gross underwriting year basis rather than an accident year basis. In order to provide net data on an accident year basis it has been necessary to make a number of assumptions. As a result, any purely mechanical analysis may produce artificially high or low estimates, and some degree of judgment should be used in selecting factors and in the selection of an overall development pattern.

 

Due to the complexity of allocating its net paid and reported data from treaty year to accident year, the ACE Global Markets Property, Energy, and Personal Accident book was excluded from the GLT. However, the GL, Professional Liability, Aviation, and Marine books from accident year 1997 onwards have been included in the Casualty triangles.

 

Insurance Overseas General – Casualty

 

The majority of the exposures consist of General Liability and Professional Liability from both ACE International and AGM. As noted in the Insurance North American discussion, there was a hardening of the Professional Liability market in the last three years, and any analysis should reflect these changes in price adequacy. Also included in this triangle are relatively smaller amounts of Auto Liability, Employers Liability, Marine, Aviation, and Political Risk.

 

Both occurrence and claims made coverages have been written in relatively equal proportions over the last ten years. As with Insurance North American, we did not see any significant distortion in combining occurrence and claims made data.

 

Insurance Overseas General – Non-Casualty

 

These triangles consist entirely of Property and Energy losses. As mentioned above, the AGM Non-Casualty book was excluded.

 

Insurance Overseas General – Personal Accident

 

The Personal Accident business shown here is written entirely by ACE International. As mentioned above, the AGM Personal Accident book was excluded. This is mostly traditional accident business with no health insurance component.

 

Highlights OG

  Page 10


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Overseas General Casualty

As of 12/31/03

In $US thousands

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    90,945    154,309    199,532    239,140    263,587    284,459    296,977    307,583    320,689

1994

   137,352    198,858    216,565    229,263    241,202    253,765    257,478    260,811    264,669    266,239

1995

   129,489    196,387    217,246    228,419    242,516    249,767    255,643    258,371    258,992     

1996

   129,426    200,407    219,333    240,300    247,510    253,955    263,502    265,965          

1997

   238,524    385,022    460,868    512,340    572,056    614,946    636,420               

1998

   260,489    404,837    474,053    541,816    582,699    606,176                    

1999

   235,665    398,403    479,872    539,374    571,754                         

2000

   273,676    490,143    598,685    664,683                              

2001

   245,968    444,559    562,590                                   

2002

   196,408    387,063                                        

2003

   187,656                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle                              

Accident

Year


   Age in months

   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   257,307    294,110    343,649    361,156    356,673    368,653    373,809    393,148    383,345    387,820

1994

   202,176    242,704    251,563    258,081    262,336    270,878    270,642    273,108    274,429    280,563

1995

   194,187    240,297    244,444    250,302    263,734    265,441    266,706    264,595    264,773     

1996

   196,217    240,261    248,739    261,114    263,683    272,033    270,977    272,760          

1997

   375,389    543,458    592,337    673,764    732,493    806,155    829,559               

1998

   386,312    541,004    604,645    623,351    657,126    727,873                    

1999

   373,586    552,511    610,078    640,499    594,671                         

2000

   422,597    707,354    784,711    863,381                              

2001

   417,793    571,844    693,158                                   

2002

   377,835    625,698                                        

2003

   350,332                                             
Net Earned Premium                                        

Accident

Year


    
   NEP

                                            

1994

   489,276                                             

1995

   487,876                                             

1996

   503,078                                             

1997

   1,011,026                                             

1998

   949,935                                             

1999

   909,774                                             

2000

   984,206                                             

2001

   1,133,599                                             

2002

   1,394,816                                             

2003

   1,558,108                                             

 

OG Cas

  Page 11


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Overseas General Non-Casualty

As of 12/31/03

In $US thousands

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

Accident

Year


     Age in months

    
     12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

    

Prior

     0    35,188    49,312    60,322    68,065    78,500    84,443    107,216    115,386    126,950     

1994

     79,760    134,601    146,434    150,516    152,704    150,942    151,831    152,662    152,848    152,922     

1995

     63,695    133,741    148,376    152,640    153,815    154,181    158,501    159,375    159,338          

1996

     61,384    124,564    137,604    141,216    142,896    144,280    145,688    145,620               

1997

     72,908    137,354    148,790    154,002    155,634    156,983    158,753                    

1998

     131,631    253,937    275,903    285,635    298,277    299,644                         

1999

     93,231    237,337    279,231    291,658    296,180                              

2000

     117,848    263,766    315,259    337,542                                   

2001

     123,634    282,660    318,492                                        

2002

     137,715    256,995                                             

2003

     97,947                                                  
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle                                   

Accident

Year


     Age in months

    
     12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

    

Prior

     81,960    84,447    83,250    83,250    82,393    87,699    91,177    112,629    120,280    130,233     

1994

     146,863    155,232    157,204    156,610    161,290    158,362    158,622    158,787    158,034    157,404     

1995

     150,748    163,579    163,995    163,122    165,234    159,617    160,727    160,571    159,863          

1996

     129,567    148,984    149,445    148,343    148,018    148,175    147,757    147,427               

1997

     152,165    169,871    164,496    161,456    161,902    162,183    162,745                    

1998

     262,160    306,709    305,723    301,980    302,229    303,005                         

1999

     219,153    305,691    302,912    302,794    304,434                              

2000

     329,455    365,203    359,352    358,614                                   

2001

     343,379    370,644    351,863                                        

2002

     288,213    337,305                                             

2003

     298,823                                                  
Net Earned Premium                                             

Accident

Year


     NEP

                                                 

1994

     311,690                                                  

1995

     330,275                                                  

1996

     328,952                                                  

1997

     339,137                                                  

1998

     343,842                                                  

1999

     349,188                                                  

2000

     366,502                                                  

2001

     393,521                                                  

2002

     564,219                                                  

2003

     766,792                                                  

 

OG NCas    Page 12


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Overseas General Personal Accident

As of 12/31/03

In $US thousands

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

Accident

Year


     Age in months

    
     12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

    

Prior

     0    32,199    49,908    57,969    63,257    66,643    69,971    73,138    74,675    76,139     

1994

     64,926    117,823    131,415    138,594    141,786    143,063    144,618    145,183    145,609    146,114     

1995

     68,570    119,971    135,366    142,455    145,966    147,158    148,891    150,300    150,736          

1996

     70,208    123,561    137,074    142,311    145,613    147,949    149,450    150,113               

1997

     75,076    132,394    151,804    158,583    163,437    165,939    166,991                    

1998

     95,775    158,647    175,646    185,212    188,138    190,489                         

1999

     84,692    144,889    164,248    172,636    176,806                              

2000

     87,906    152,079    172,020    180,790                                   

2001

     106,043    190,160    219,610                                        

2002

     109,417    196,566                                             

2003

     115,310                                                  
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle                                   

Accident

Year


     Age in months

    
     12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

    

Prior

     51,053    60,942    68,260    72,321    73,683    75,886    75,795    76,351    77,441    77,289     

1994

     99,489    134,547    143,029    146,362    146,485    146,847    146,757    146,340    146,584    146,760     

1995

     106,550    142,792    146,761    149,477    150,387    150,607    151,220    152,193    151,771          

1996

     104,592    144,197    149,223    150,844    150,742    151,747    152,259    152,519               

1997

     118,741    157,035    166,955    167,289    168,806    169,626    169,362                    

1998

     142,040    184,166    190,322    192,182    192,294    193,379                         

1999

     130,243    172,115    179,481    182,450    183,525                              

2000

     130,362    185,169    188,726    192,767                                   

2001

     168,980    227,519    251,666                                        

2002

     172,798    259,285                                             

2003

     192,671                                                  
Net Earned Premium                                             

Accident

Year


     NEP

                                                 

1994

     377,689                                                  

1995

     403,833                                                  

1996

     426,573                                                  

1997

     534,800                                                  

1998

     474,808                                                  

1999

     487,356                                                  

2000

     486,930                                                  

2001

     558,951                                                  

2002

     662,451                                                  

2003

     718,979                                                  

 

OG PA    Page 13


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Highlights - Global Re Segment

 

Global Re Segment

 

The Global Re segment contains the business written by Tempest USA, Tempest Bermuda, and Tempest Europe. Tempest USA writes a North American treaty reinsurance book covering nearly all lines and is sourced through reinsurance brokers. Tempest Bermuda was founded in 1993 and writes catastrophe reinsurance, primarily Property coverages. Tempest Europe writes a worldwide portfolio of Marine, Aviation, Property and Casualty business.

 

Unlike the rest of the triangles, the data for Global Re is presented on a treaty year basis, not on an accident year basis. A feature of treaty year data is that individual treaties can incept at any time during a given treaty year, and therefore, a full treaty year can typically take up to 36 months to fully earn. Since reserves should only be established for the earned portion of the 2003 treaty year, care should be taken not to fully develop the 2003 treaty year and include the unearned portion of that treaty year. Hence, any application of a pure loss development factor method for treaty year 2003 (paid or reported multiplied by a benchmark LDF) will overstate the liability as of December 31, 2003. As an alternative, either an expected loss and/or Bornhuetter-Ferguson approach will help mitigate this issue since the earned premium represents ACE’s exposure as of December 31, 2003.

 

Global Re Casualty

 

Given the short history of Global Re in Casualty lines of business, there are only four treaty years of loss and ALAE experience to date, and given the long-tail nature of the business, it is difficult to perform any meaningful analysis, especially with loss development methods. Other methods, such as a pure Expected Loss Ratio or Bornhuetter-Ferguson, would be more appropriate. A good source for loss development factors would be the Reinsurance Association of America (RAA).

 

Global Re Non-Casualty

 

Prior to policy year 2001, all of the loss experience relates to Tempest Bermuda and is therefore all Property Catastrophe related. In the policy years subsequent to 2001, the Property Per Risk and Energy books have grown substantially.

 

Highlights GR    Page 14


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Global Re Casualty

As of 12/31/03

In $US thousands

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

Treaty

Year


   Age in months

   
   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

   

Prior

   0    0    0    0                0                0                0                0                0                0    

1994

   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    

1995

   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0         

1996

   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0              

1997

   0    0    0    0    0    0    0                   

1998

   0    0    0    0    0    0                        

1999

   0    0    0    0    0                             

2000

   946    4,895    10,424      13,761                                  

2001

   1,495    9,793      23,691                                       

2002

   1,555      14,977                                            

2003

   4,268                                                 
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle                                  

Treaty

Year


   Age in months

   
   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

   

Prior

   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    

1994

   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    

1995

   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0         

1996

   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0              

1997

   0    0    0    0    0    0    0                   

1998

   0    0    0    0    0    0                        

1999

   0    0    0    0    0                             

2000

   1,669    10,779    16,660    20,026                                  

2001

   7,523    21,837    38,016                                       

2002

   9,626    37,259                                            

2003

   19,537                                                 
Net Earned Premium                                  

Treaty

Year


   NEP

                                                

1994

   0                                                 

1995

   0                                                 

1996

   0                                                 

1997

   0                                                 

1998

   0                                                 

1999

   0                                                 

2000

   30,541                                                 

2001

   137,059                                                 

2002

   347,174                                                 

2003

   213,361                                                 

 

GR Cas    Page 15


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Global Re Non-Casualty

As of 12/31/03

In $US thousands

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

Treaty

Year


     Age in months

      
     12

     24

     36

     48

     60

     72

     84

     96

     108

     120

      

Prior

     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0       

1994

     11,358      38,060      49,938      53,891      57,788      59,687      59,737      60,197      60,547      61,990       

1995

     18,023      48,441      58,325      66,612      68,306      68,831      69,283      69,284      69,314              

1996

     15,181      24,799      25,310      25,645      25,641      25,836      25,844      25,843                     

1997

     6,022      10,869      13,676      17,322      17,602      17,628      17,564                            

1998

     25,621      68,895      90,040      90,845      90,920      89,042                                   

1999

     22,024      52,487      45,975      47,792      47,990                                          

2000

     8,966      33,923      46,723      51,113                                                 

2001

     26,801      41,179      55,746                                                        

2002

     26,844      75,099                                                               

2003

     30,370                                                                      
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle                                                 

Treaty

Year


     Age in months

      
     12

     24

     36

     48

     60

     72

     84

     96

     108

     120

      

Prior

     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0       

1994

     34,731      54,823      57,830      58,752      61,376      61,619      61,580      61,693      61,041      62,556       

1995

     58,012      58,919      63,040      68,332      69,121      69,117      69,436      69,389      69,366              

1996

     25,171      26,308      25,881      25,926      25,767      25,952      26,065      25,978                     

1997

     11,283      15,542      18,346      18,548      18,635      18,291      18,259                            

1998

     33,449      85,331      93,505      93,042      90,241      89,721                                   

1999

     25,514      48,867      50,205      48,423      48,134                                          

2000

     15,768      53,070      52,579      50,447                                                 

2001

     46,220      49,387      56,943                                                        

2002

     72,615      116,337                                                               

2003

     61,749                                                                      
Net Earned Premium                                                               

Treaty

Year


     NEP

                                                                     

1994

     142,609                                                                      

1995

     162,158                                                                      

1996

     127,165                                                                      

1997

     118,834                                                                      

1998

     155,954                                                                      

1999

     152,583                                                                      

2000

     227,346                                                                      

2001

     339,418                                                                      

2002

     573,065                                                                      

2003

     465,203                                                                      

 

GR NCas    Page 16


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2003 10-K Disclosure

 

As an insurance and reinsurance company, we are required, under GAAP, to establish loss reserves for the estimated unpaid portion of the ultimate liability for losses and loss expenses under the terms of our policies and agreements with our insured and reinsured customers. These reserves include estimates for both claims that have been reported and those that have been incurred but not reported (IBNR), and include estimates of expenses associated with processing and settling these claims. At December 31, 2003, the unpaid losses and loss expense reserve was $27.1 billion gross of third party reinsurance. Our P&C loss reserves are not discounted. The process of establishing reserves for property and casualty (P&C) claims can be complex and is subject to considerable variability as it requires the use of informed estimates and judgments. These estimates and judgments are based on numerous factors, and may be revised as additional experience and other data become available and are reviewed, as new or improved methodologies are developed or as current laws change.

 

We have actuarial staff in each of our operating segments who track insurance reserves and regularly evaluate the levels of loss reserves, taking into consideration factors that may impact the ultimate loss reserves. The potential for variation in loss reserves is impacted by numerous factors, which we explain below.

 

We estimate loss reserves for all insurance and reinsurance business we write. In most cases, we do not have all the necessary information to determine the ultimate settlement value for a claim at the time we are required to accrue for the loss. As a result, historical experience and other statistical information are used to estimate the ultimate cost of the loss, depending on the type of business. To determine carried reserves for a particular line of business, we may perform one or more reserving methods to estimate ultimate losses and loss expenses and use the results to select a single point estimate. These methods may include, but are not necessarily limited to, extrapolations of our historical reported and paid loss data, application of industry loss development patterns to our reported or paid losses, expected loss ratios developed by management, or historical industry loss ratios.

 

Underlying judgments and assumptions that may be incorporated into these actuarial methods include, but are not necessarily limited to, adjustments to historical data used in models to exclude aberrations in claims data such as catastrophes that are typically analyzed separately, application of tail factors used to project ultimate claims from historical loss experience when there are several data points to use, adjustments to actuarial models and related data for known business changes, such as changes in claims covered under insurance contracts, and the effect of recent or pending litigation on future claim settlements. For each of our lines of business, management, in conjunction with internal actuaries, develop their “best estimate” of ultimate liabilities, which they believe provide a reasonable estimate of the required reserve. We utilize one set of assumptions in determining a single point estimate. We do not calculate a range of loss reserve estimates.

 

The following is a discussion of specific reserving considerations by type of claim:

 

Short-Tail Business, such as Property Coverages

 

Short-tail business describes lines of business for which losses are usually known and paid shortly after the loss actually occurs. This would include, for example, most property, personal accident, aviation hull and automobile physical damage policies that are written.

 

Long-Tail Business, such as Casualty Coverages

 

Long-tail business describes lines of business for which specific losses may not be known for some period and losses take much longer to emerge. This includes most casualty lines such as general liability, directors and officers liability (D&O) and workers compensation. Within our general insurance business, long-tail casualty business has been increasing and for the year ended December 31, 2003 comprises approximately 43 percent of net premiums earned. There are many factors contributing to the uncertainty and volatility of long-tail business. Among these are:

 

Given the recent expansion of this business, historical experience is often too immature to place reliance upon for reserving purposes. Instead, particularly for newer lines of business, reserve methods are based on industry loss ratios or development patterns that reflect the nature and coverage of the underwritten business and its future development. For new or growing lines of business, actual loss experience is apt to differ from industry loss statistics that are based on averages as well as loss experience of previous underwriting years;

 

10-K(1)    Page 17


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2003 10-K Disclosure

 

The inherent uncertainty of the length of paid and reporting development patterns;

 

The possibility of future litigation, legislative or judicial change that might impact future loss experience relative to prior loss experience relied upon in loss reserve analyses.

 

We establish reserves for the estimated unpaid ultimate liability for losses and loss expenses under the terms of our policies and agreements. These reserves take into account estimates both for claims that have been reported and for IBNR, and include estimates of expenses associated with processing and settling claims.

 

For each of our lines of business, management, in conjunction with internal actuaries, develop a “best estimate” of ultimate liabilities, which they believe provide a reasonable estimate of the required reserve. The following is a discussion of our reserve- setting procedures by segment:

 

Insurance – North American and Insurance – Overseas General

 

Our internal actuaries perform standard actuarial methodologies including paid and incurred loss development and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) incurred and paid loss methods. The BF method is a blend of an expected loss ratio method and utilization of a pattern consistent with that of a loss development technique. For those lines of business where there is enough historical experience, in general, all four methods are utilized and an ultimate indication is estimated based on the outcomes of these techniques as well as any other methods used for the given line of business (e.g. counts and averages approaches). More reliance would be placed on loss development techniques for the older years as these are more mature and would have more consistent trends. For the more recent years, especially for long-tailed lines of business, a BF method would be given more weight since a loss development method could significantly understate or overstate liabilities. In all cases, additional diagnostics are performed to help in the determination of the most appropriate estimate.

 

These diagnostics include a review of paid loss to incurred loss ratios, claims disposal rates and implied IBNR to case outstanding ratios. In situations where a new line of business is being written or a new product line being sold, an expected loss ratio method would be more appropriate as our own historical loss development information is limited. In these cases, industry benchmark loss ratios and development patterns are utilized to estimate ultimate indications. Given the high severity, low frequency nature of ACE Bermuda’s book of business, the actuarial techniques utilized in calculating IBNR is more heavily weighted to an expected loss ratio/BF methodology. There is intense monitoring by claim of potential case reserve development in this business and the interaction between the claims department and actuarial function is a crucial element in the success of this operating unit.

 

Global Reinsurance

 

ACE Global Re’s book of business consists of a significant amount of property catastrophe exposure. For this line of business, we develop initial loss estimates for large individual catastrophes based on market share information of potential exposures and the output from catastrophe computer simulation models. Market share analysis uses cedant and industry information at geographic level (e.g. country) and line of business. A range of industry losses is then passed through the relevant market shares to provide a range of losses for the company’s exposures, allowing for program attachment points and the appropriate shares of the indemnity limits involved. When actual case reserves from the ceding companies are received, the initial loss estimates are progressively modified to reflect the actual emerging loss experience. Since the subject business is short-tail, most of our historical losses are now reserved on this basis.

 

For the casualty lines of business, similar actuarial techniques are utilized as described above for the Insurance – North American and Insurance – Overseas General segments. However, due to the immaturity of this book of business, more weight is given to the BF method of projections. There is considerable uncertainty around the expected projections for these lines and any favorable trends that may be seen in the development could easily be reversed.

 

The interested reader is referred to ACE’s 2003 Form 10-K for additional information on the reserving process.

 

10-K(2)    Page 18


LOGO   

ACE Limited Global Loss Triangles

Glossary

 

Accident year: Relates to all losses occurring within a given twelve-month period, regardless of when the loss was reported or booked.

 

Bornhuetter-Ferguson method: Estimates unpaid (unreported) losses for a given accident/treaty year based on an expected ultimate and the percentage of losses currently unpaid (unreported).

 

Claims made basis: An insurance form where the date the loss is reported to the insurer is deemed to be the date of the loss event, regardless of when the loss occurred.

 

Integrated occurrence: Two or more separate occurrences defined in a policy as a single occurrence. For example, a number of individual lawsuits arising over several years from a single faulty product might be defined as one occurrence under policy language.

 

Occurrence basis: An insurance form where the date the loss occurred is deemed to be the date of the loss event, regardless of when the claim is reported to the insurer.

 

Retroactive reinsurance: An arrangement whereby a reinsurer assumes liability incurred as a result of past events (i.e. a loss portfolio transfer).

 

Treaty year: Relates to all losses associated with policies that incepted within a given twelve-month period.

 

Glossary    Page 19