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Reserve for Future Policy Benefits
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2019
Insurance Loss Reserves [Abstract]  
Reserve for Future Policy Benefits 11. RESERVE FOR UNPAID LOSSES AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES
Property and Casualty Insurance Products
Rollforward of Liabilities for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
2019
2018
2017
Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross
$
24,584

$
23,775

$
22,545

Reinsurance and other recoverables
4,232

3,957

3,488

Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net
20,352

19,818

19,057

Navigators Group acquisition
2,001



Provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses
 

 

 

Current accident year
7,463

7,107

7,381

Prior accident year development [1]
(65
)
(167
)
(41
)
Total provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses
7,398

6,940

7,340

Change in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance included in other liabilities [1]
(16
)


Payments
 

 

 

Current accident year
(2,374
)
(2,452
)
(2,751
)
Prior accident years
(4,374
)
(3,954
)
(3,828
)
Total payments
(6,748
)
(6,406
)
(6,579
)
Foreign currency adjustment
(1
)


Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net
22,986

20,352

19,818

Reinsurance and other recoverables
5,275

4,232

3,957

Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross
$
28,261

$
24,584

$
23,775


[1]
Prior accident year development does not include the benefit of a portion of losses ceded under the Navigators ADC which, under retroactive reinsurance accounting, is deferred and is recognized over the period the ceded losses are recovered in cash from NICO . For additional information regarding the Navigators ADC agreement, please refer to Adverse Development Covers discussion below.
Property and Casualty Insurance Products Reserves, Net of Reinsurance, that are Discounted
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
2019
2018
2017
Liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, at undiscounted amounts
$
1,331
 
$
1,331
 
$
1,387
 
Amount of discount
388
 
388
 
410
 
Carrying value of liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses
$
943
 
$
943
 
$
977
 
Discount accretion included in losses and loss adjustment expenses
$
33
 
$
40
 
$
30
 
Weighted average discount rate
2.91
%
2.98
%
3.06
%
Range of discount rates
1.76
%
-
14.03
%
1.77
%
-
14.15
%
1.77
%
-
14.15
%

The current accident year benefit from discounting property and casualty insurance product reserves was $33 in 2019, $12 in 2018 and $15 in 2017. Reserves are discounted at rates in effect at the time claims were incurred, ranging from 1.76% for accident year 2012 to 14.03% for accident year 1981.
The reserves recorded for the Company’s property and casualty insurance products at December 31, 2019 represent the Company’s best estimate of its ultimate liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses related to losses covered by policies written by the Company. However, because of the significant uncertainties surrounding reserves it is possible that management’s estimate of the ultimate liabilities for these claims may change and that the required adjustment to recorded reserves could exceed the currently recorded reserves by an amount that could be material to the Company’s results of operations or cash flows.
Losses and loss adjustment expenses are also impacted by trends including frequency and severity as well as changes in the legislative and regulatory environment. In the case of the reserves for asbestos exposures, factors contributing to the high degree of uncertainty in the ultimate settlement of the liabilities gross of reinsurance include inadequate loss development patterns, plaintiffs’ expanding theories of liability, the risks inherent in major litigation, and inconsistent emerging legal doctrines. In the case of the reserves for environmental exposures before reinsurance, factors contributing to the high degree of uncertainty in gross reserves include expanding theories of liabilities and damages, the risks inherent in major litigation, inconsistent decisions concerning the existence and scope of coverage for environmental claims, and uncertainty as to the monetary amount being sought by the claimant from the insured.
(Favorable) Unfavorable Prior Accident Year Development
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
2019
2018
2017
Workers’ compensation
$
(120
)
$
(164
)
$
(79
)
Workers’ compensation discount accretion
33

40

28

General liability
61

52

11

Marine
8



Package business
(47
)
(26
)
(25
)
Commercial property
(11
)
(12
)
(8
)
Professional liability
29

(12
)
1

Bond
(3
)
2

32

Assumed Reinsurance
3



Automobile liability - Commercial Lines
27

(15
)
17

Automobile liability - Personal Lines
(38
)
(18
)

Homeowners
3

(25
)
(14
)
Net asbestos reserves



Net environmental reserves



Catastrophes
(42
)
(49
)
(16
)
Uncollectible reinsurance
(30
)
22

(15
)
Other reserve re-estimates, net
46

38

27

Total prior accident year development, including full benefit for the ADC cession
(81
)
(167
)
(41
)
Change in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance included in other liabilities
16



Total prior accident year development
$
(65
)
$
(167
)
$
(41
)

2019 re-estimates of prior accident year reserves
Workers’ compensation reserves were reduced, principally in small commercial driven by lower than previously estimated claim severity for the 2014 through 2017 accident years and, to a lesser extent, in national accounts due to lower estimated claim severity, primarily for accident years 2013 and prior.
General liability reserves were increased, primarily due to reserve increases in small commercial for accident years 2017 and 2018 due to higher frequency of high-severity bodily injury
claims, reserve increases in middle & large commercial for accident years 2015 to 2018 due to higher estimated severity, as well as increased estimated severity on the acquired Navigators Group book of business related to U.S. construction, premises liability, products liability and excess casualty, mostly related to accident years 2014 to 2017. In addition, an increase in reserves for mass torts for 2009 and prior accident years was offset by a decrease in reserves for extra contractual liability claims for more recent accident years, including the 2018 accident year.
Marine reserves were increased, principally related to pollution exposure from the 1980s and 1990s related to the Navigators Group book of business.
Package business reserves were decreased, primarily due to favorable emergence on property claims related to accident years 2016 through 2018 and due to favorable development of loss adjustment expenses on general liability claims for 2017 and prior accident years.
Commercial property reserves were decreased, principally due to favorable emergence of reported losses, including on the acquired Navigators Group book of business, related to offshore energy in accident years 2017 to 2018 and construction engineering across accident years 2015 to 2018.
Professional liability reserves were increased, primarily due to increased securities litigation and large loss activity, including wrongful termination and discrimination claims, related to accident years 2017 and 2018 and increased estimated frequency and severity of directors’ and officers’ reserves on the Navigators Group book of business, principally for the 2014 to 2018 accident years.  Partially offsetting the increase was a decrease in average severity on public company directors’ and officers’ claim reserves and errors and omissions claim reserves for accident years 2014 and prior.    
Automobile liability reserves were decreased in Personal Lines and increased in Commercial Lines.  The decrease in Personal Lines was due to the emergence of lower estimated severity in automobile liability for accident year 2017.  The increase in Commercial Lines was due to higher estimated severity on national accounts, principally in accident years 2017 and 2018, and higher estimated severity for accident year 2018 in small commercial and middle market, partially offset by lower estimated severity for 2017 and prior accident years in small commercial and middle market.
Catastrophes reserves were reduced, primarily as a result of lower estimated net losses from 2017 hurricanes Harvey and Irma and the 2017 California wildfires. While gross loss reserve estimates for the 2018 California wildfires were also reduced, this was largely offset by a reduction in reinsurance recoverables resulting in very little change to estimated net losses from those wildfires.
In December, 2019, the judge overseeing the bankruptcy of PG&E Corporation and Pacific Gas and Electric Company (together, “PG&E”) approved an $11 billion settlement with insurers representing approximately 85 percent of insurance subrogation claims to resolve all such claims arising from the 2017 Northern California wildfires and 2018 Camp wildfire. The bankruptcy court has also approved PG&E’s settlement with individual wildfire claimants.  Those settlements are subject to confirmation by the bankruptcy court of a chapter 11 plan of reorganization
("PG&E Plan") which implements the terms of the settlements. If the PG&E Plan is approved, certain of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries would be entitled to settlement payments of subrogation claims. Based on reserve estimates submitted with the subrogation request, the amount our subsidiaries could collect from PG&E, if any, would be approximately $300 to $325 but could be more or less than that amount depending on how the Company’s ultimate paid claims subject to subrogation compare to other insurers’ ultimate paid claims subject to subrogation. Confirmation of the PG&E Plan and amount of the Company’s ultimate subrogation recoveries from PG&E are subject to uncertainty, including but not limited to resolution of objections raised by the Governor of California and others.
Given the uncertainty about whether the PG&E Plan will be confirmed, the Company has not recognized a benefit from potential subrogation from PG&E and will evaluate in future periods when more information becomes known. In connection with the 2018 Camp wildfire, the Company has recognized a $12 reinsurance recoverable for losses incurred in excess of a $350 per occurrence retention. Under its 2018 property aggregate catastrophe treaty, the Company has recognized a reinsurance recoverable for aggregate catastrophe losses in excess of an $825 retention, with the recoverable currently estimated at $45. As such, the first $57 of subrogation recoveries would be offset by a $57 reduction in these reinsurance recoverables resulting in no net benefit to income.
Uncollectible reinsurance reserves were reduced due to higher than expected recoveries from reinsurers in older accident years.
Other reserve re-estimates, net, primarily represents an increase in unallocated loss adjustment expense ('ULAE") reserves in Property & Casualty Other Operations that was driven by an increase in gross asbestos and environmental reserves, as well as higher than anticipated ULAE costs in recent years, prompting an increase in the projected ULAE run rate.
2018 re-estimates of prior accident year reserves
Workers’ compensation reserves were reduced in small commercial and middle market, primarily for accident years 2014 and 2015, as claim severity has emerged favorably compared to previous reserve estimates. Also contributing was a reduction in estimated reserves for ULAE.
General liability reserves were increased, primarily due to an increase in reserves for higher hazard general liability exposures in middle market for accident years 2009 to 2017, partially offset by a decrease in reserves for other lines within middle market, including premises and operations, umbrella and products liability, principally for accident years 2015 and prior. Contributing to the increase in reserves for higher hazard general liability exposures was an increase in average claim severity, including from large losses and, in more recent accident years, an increase in claim frequency. Contributing to the reduction in reserves for other middle market lines were more favorable outcomes due to initiatives to reduce legal expenses. In addition, reserve increases for claims with lead paint exposure were offset by reserve decreases for other mass torts and extra-contractual liability claims.
Package business reserves were reduced, primarily due to lower reserve estimates for both liability and property for accident years 2010 and prior, including a recovery of loss adjustment expenses for the 2005 accident year.
Commercial property reserves were reduced, driven by an increase in estimated reinsurance recoverables on middle market property losses from the 2017 accident year.
Professional liability reserves were reduced, principally for accident years 2014 and prior, for directors and officers liability claims principally due to a number of older claims closing with limited or no payment.
Automobile liability reserves were reduced, primarily driven by reduced estimates of loss adjustment expenses in small commercial for recent accident years and favorable development in personal automobile liability for accident years 2014 to 2017, principally due to lower severity, including with uninsured and underinsured motorist claims.
Homeowners reserves were reduced, primarily in accident years 2013 to 2017, driven by lower than expected severity across multiple perils.
Asbestos and environmental reserves were unchanged as $238 of adverse development arising from the fourth quarter 2018 comprehensive annual review was offset by a $238 recoverable from NICO. For additional information related to the adverse development cover with NICO, see Note 8 - Reinsurance and Note 14 - Commitments and Contingencies of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
Catastrophe reserves were reduced, primarily as a result of lower estimated net losses from 2017 catastrophes, principally related to hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Before reinsurance, estimated losses for 2017 catastrophe events decreased by $133, resulting in a decrease in reinsurance recoverables of $90 as the Company no longer expects to recover under the 2017 Property Aggregate reinsurance treaty as aggregate ultimate losses for 2017 catastrophe events are now projected to be less than $850.
Uncollectible reinsurance reserves were increased due to lower anticipated recoveries related to older accident years.
Other reserve re-estimates, net, primarily represents an increase in ULAE reserves in Property & Casualty Other Operations that was principally driven by an increase in expected claim handling costs associated with asbestos and environmental and mass tort claims.
2017 re-estimates of prior accident year reserves
Workers’ compensation reserves were reduced in small commercial and middle market, given the continued emergence of favorable frequency, primarily for accident years 2013 to 2015, as well as a reduction in estimated reserves for unallocated loss adjustment expenses, partially offset by strengthening reserves for captive programs within specialty commercial.
General liability reserves were increased for the 2013 to 2016 accident years on a class of business that insures service and maintenance contractors. This increase was partially offset by a decrease in recent accident year reserves for other middle market general liability reserves.
Package business reserves were reduced for accident years 2013 and prior largely due to reducing the Company’s estimate of allocated loss adjustment expenses incurred to settle the claims.
Bond business reserves increased for customs bonds written between 2000 and 2010 which was partly offset by a reduction in reserves for recent accident years as reported losses for commercial and contract surety have emerged favorably.
Automobile liability reserves within Commercial Lines were increased in small commercial and large national accounts for the 2013 to 2016 accident years, driven by higher frequency of more severe accidents, including litigated claims
Asbestos and environmental reserves were unchanged as $285 of adverse development arising from the fourth quarter 2017 comprehensive annual review was offset by a $285 recoverable from NICO. For additional information related to the adverse development cover with NICO, see Note 8 - Reinsurance and Note 14 - Commitments and Contingencies of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
Catastrophes reserves were reduced primarily due to lower estimates of 2016 wind and hail event losses and a decrease in losses on a 2015 wildfire.
Uncollectible reinsurance reserves decreased as a result of giving greater weight to favorable collectibility experience in recent calendar periods in estimating future collections.
Adverse Development Covers
The Company has an adverse development cover reinsurance agreement with NICO, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., to reinsure loss development after 2016 on substantially all of the Company’s asbestos and environmental reserves (the “A&E ADC”). Under the A&E ADC, the Company paid a reinsurance premium of $650 for NICO to assume adverse net loss reserve development up to $1.5 billion above the Company’s existing net A&E reserves as of December 31, 2016 of approximately $1.7 billion including reserves for A&E exposure for accident years prior to 1986 that are reported in Property & Casualty Other Operations ("Run-off A&E") and reserves for A&E exposure for accident years 1986 and subsequent from policies underwritten prior to 2016 that are reported in ongoing Commercial Lines and Personal Lines. The $650 reinsurance premium was placed into a collateral trust account as security for NICO’s claim payment obligations to the Company. The Company has retained the risk of collection on amounts due from other third-party reinsurers and continues to be responsible for claims handling and other administrative services, subject to certain conditions. The A&E ADC covers substantially all the Company’s A&E reserve development up to the reinsurance limit.
Under retroactive reinsurance accounting, net adverse A&E reserve development after December 31, 2016 will result in an offsetting reinsurance recoverable up to the $1.5 billion limit.  Cumulative ceded losses up to the $650 reinsurance premium
paid are recognized as a dollar-for-dollar offset to direct losses incurred.  Cumulative ceded losses exceeding the $650 reinsurance premium paid would result in a deferred gain. The deferred gain would be recognized over the claim settlement period in the proportion of the amount of cumulative ceded losses collected from the reinsurer to the estimated ultimate reinsurance recoveries. Consequently, until periods when the deferred gain is recognized as a benefit to earnings, cumulative adverse development of asbestos and environmental claims after December 31, 2016 in excess of $650 may result in significant charges against earnings. As of December 31, 2019, the Company has incurred $640 in cumulative adverse development on asbestos and environmental reserves that have been ceded under the A&E ADC treaty with NICO.
Immediately after closing on the acquisition of Navigators Group, effective May 23, 2019, the Company purchased the Navigators ADC, an aggregate excess of loss reinsurance agreement covering adverse reserve development, from NICO on behalf of Navigators Insurers. Under the Navigators ADC, the Navigators Insurers paid
NICO a reinsurance premium of $91 in exchange for reinsurance coverage of $300 of adverse net loss reserve development that attaches $100 above the Navigators Insurers' existing net loss and allocated loss adjustment reserves as of December 31, 2018 subject to the treaty of $1.816 billion for accidents and losses prior to December 31, 2018.
As of December 31, 2019, the Company has recorded a reinsurance recoverable under the Navigators ADC of $107 as estimated ceded loss development on the 2018 and prior accident year reserves of $207 exceed the $100 deductible. While the reinsurance recoverable is $107, the Company has also recorded a $16 deferred gain within other liabilities since, under retroactive reinsurance accounting, ceded losses in excess of the $91 of ceded premium paid must be recognized as a deferred gain. As the Company has ceded $107 of the $300 available limit, there is $193 of remaining limit available as of December 31, 2019.
Reconciliation of Loss Development to Liability for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses As of December 31, 2019
 
Losses and Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
 
Subtotal
 
 
Reserve Line
Cumulative Incurred for Accident Years Displayed in Triangles
Cumulative Paid for Accident Years Displayed in Triangles
Unpaid for Accident Years not Displayed in Triangles
Unpaid Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Discount
Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Reinsurance and Other Recoverables
Liability for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
Workers' compensation
$
18,990

$
(10,991
)
$
2,446

$
345

$
(372
)
$
10,418

$
2,093

$
12,511

General liability
5,711

(2,828
)
471

140


3,494

630

4,124

Marine
1,226

(974
)
19

8


279

135

414

Package business
6,817

(5,215
)
49

91


1,742

33

1,775

Commercial property
2,939

(2,520
)
29

13


461

162

623

Commercial automobile liability
3,698

(2,739
)
11

22


992

73

1,065

Commercial automobile physical damage
206

(194
)
3



15

(1
)
14

Professional liability
1,796

(863
)
86

31


1,050

549

1,599

Bond
637

(353
)
29

24


337

13

350

Assumed Reinsurance
1,005

(824
)
4

5


190

25

215

Personal automobile liability
11,985

(10,518
)
25

68


1,560

27

1,587

Personal automobile physical damage
1,531

(1,507
)
6

3


33


33

Homeowners
7,443

(6,958
)
4

38


527

41

568

Other ongoing business
 
 
231


(16
)
215

312

527

Asbestos and environmental [1]
 
 
1,147



1,147

1,219

2,366

Other operations [1]
 
 
375

151


526

(36
)
490

Total P&C
$
63,984

$
(46,484
)
$
4,935

$
939

$
(388
)
$
22,986

$
5,275

$
28,261

[1]
Asbestos and environmental and other operations include asbestos, environmental and other latent exposures not foreseen when coverages were written, including, but not limited to, potential liability for pharmaceutical products, silica, talcum powder, head injuries, lead paint, construction defects, molestation and other long-tail liabilities. These reserve lines do not have significant paid or incurred loss development for the most recent ten accident years and therefore do not have loss development displayed in triangles.
The reserve lines in the above table and the loss triangles that follow represent the significant lines of business for which the Company regularly reviews the appropriateness of reserve levels. These reserve lines differ from the reserve lines reported on a statutory basis, as prescribed by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners ("NAIC"). The cumulative incurred losses displayed in the above table include the full reinsurance benefit of ceding $107 of losses to the Navigators ADC even though $16 of that benefit has been recorded as a deferred gain within other liabilities and recognized as a charge to earnings in 2019 within incurred loss and loss adjustment expenses included in the consolidated statement of operations. The $107 of Navigators Insurers losses ceded to the Navigators ADC included in the following triangles $28 for general liability, $25 for professional liability, $13 for assumed reinsurance, $12 for commercial auto, $9 for marine and $8 for commercial property and included $12 for older accident years and lines of business that are not in the following triangles.
The following loss triangles present historical loss development for incurred and paid claims by accident year, including loss development on Navigators Insurers reserves prior to and after the May 23, 2019 acquisition date. Because the loss triangles include pre-acquisition date changes in ultimate incurred loss estimates for Navigators Insurers’ reserves, changes in reserve development evident in the incurred loss triangles may differ from prior accident year development recorded by the Company as shown in the (Favorable) Unfavorable Prior Accident Year Development table above as that only includes changes in Navigators Insurers’ reserves post acquisition. In addition, the incurred losses triangles include reserve development on both catastrophe and non-catastrophe claims whereas the (Favorable) Unfavorable Prior Accident Year Development table above shows the total amount of catastrophe reserve development across all lines of business on a single line.
Triangles are limited to the number of years for which claims incurred typically remain outstanding, not exceeding ten years. Short-tail lines, which represent claims generally expected to be paid within a few years, have three years of claim development displayed. For marine, commercial property, professional liability and assumed reinsurance lines, the Company has provided eight years of claims development as data for earlier periods was not available for the Lloyds syndicate. IBNR reserves shown in loss triangles include reserve for incurred but not reported claims as well as reserves for expected development on reported claims. Incurred and cumulative paid losses in currencies other than the U.S. dollar have been converted into U.S. dollars using the exchange rates as of December 31, 2019.
Workers' Compensation
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2010
$
1,560

$
1,775

$
1,814

$
1,858

$
1,857

$
1,882

$
1,881

$
1,878

$
1,892

$
1,888

$
221

156,802

2011
 
2,013

2,099

2,204

2,206

2,221

2,224

2,232

2,242

2,239

314

177,910

2012
 
 
2,185

2,207

2,207

2,181

2,168

2,169

2,154

2,146

350

171,341

2013
 
 
 
2,020

1,981

1,920

1,883

1,861

1,861

1,850

415

151,315

2014
 
 
 
 
1,869

1,838

1,789

1,761

1,713

1,692

477

126,104

2015
 
 
 
 
 
1,873

1,835

1,801

1,724

1,714

540

113,819

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,772

1,772

1,780

1,767

665

111,763

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,862

1,869

1,840

864

111,096

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,916

1,917

1,039

116,915

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,937

1,359

110,515

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
18,990

 
 

Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
$
316

$
709

$
970

$
1,154

$
1,287

$
1,374

$
1,439

$
1,489

$
1,522

$
1,553

2011
 
371

841

1,156

1,368

1,518

1,622

1,690

1,746

1,786

2012
 
 
359

809

1,106

1,313

1,436

1,529

1,587

1,644

2013
 
 
 
304

675

917

1,071

1,175

1,260

1,304

2014
 
 
 
 
275

598

811

960

1,041

1,099

2015
 
 
 
 
 
261

576

778

909

1,004

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
255

579

779

908

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
261

575

778

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
283

624

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
291

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
10,991

General Liability
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2010
$
436

$
445

$
432

$
437

$
428

$
431

$
465

$
467

$
483

$
482

$
41

23,941

2011
 
431

420

408

405

404

416

417

426

420

48

22,310

2012
 
 
423

402

399

392

410

408

421

413

65

16,501

2013
 
 
 
455

442

456

484

488

502

505

77

13,643

2014
 
 
 
 
506

475

481

494

513

522

114

14,318

2015
 
 
 
 
 
556

560

554

594

633

141

15,088

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
613

583

607

633

254

15,984

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
626

614

613

359

15,039

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
692

669

516

15,368

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
821

744

11,628

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
5,711

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
$
20

$
68

$
149

$
230

$
284

$
327

$
387

$
409

$
418

$
427

2011
 
15

61

123

200

255

303

330

348

362

2012
 
 
13

55

101

170

233

280

305

323

2013
 
 
 
13

53

141

233

320

372

398

2014
 
 
 
 
15

42

130

214

304

358

2015
 
 
 
 
 
10

55

156

278

409

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
12

52

131

283

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
15

67

156

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21

83

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
29

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
2,828

Marine
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2012
$
195

$
219

$
179

$
168

$
163

$
163

$
167

$
163

$

6,766

2013
 
148

152

134

135

139

134

137

(2
)
6,601

2014
 
 
163

159

157

164

163

168

(1
)
7,093

2015
 
 
 
158

145

145

148

133

(8
)
10,038

2016
 
 
 
 
139

142

137

147

(3
)
12,959

2017
 
 
 
 
 
160

186

174

3

15,216

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
144

160

5

13,130

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
144

61

5,775

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
1,226

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2012
$
50

$
101

$
125

$
139

$
148

$
152

$
154

$
158

2013
 
41

82

100

111

118

120

125

2014
 
 
40

80

116

130

150

156

2015
 
 
 
40

85

115

125

133

2016
 
 
 
 
35

80

106

122

2017
 
 
 
 
 
48

110

141

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
37

104

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
35

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
974

Package Business
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2010
$
657

$
662

$
654

$
652

$
652

$
651

$
653

$
651

$
649

$
647

$
18

52,484

2011
 
810

792

790

800

808

814

813

812

807

26

61,045

2012
 
 
736

725

728

731

736

735

739

732

30

59,817

2013
 
 
 
579

565

573

585

586

592

586

32

43,556

2014
 
 
 
 
566

578

601

602

603

603

59

43,098

2015
 
 
 
 
 
582

588

585

583

588

69

41,965

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
655

638

632

625

118

43,672

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
695

702

692

192

45,836

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
719

724

241

43,026

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
813

392

36,824

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
6,817

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
$
270

$
414

$
487

$
539

$
570

$
601

$
613

$
618

$
625

$
627

2011
 
377

555

621

684

727

748

762

772

774

2012
 
 
286

486

560

616

652

673

687

694

2013
 
 
 
225

339

414

467

504

522

541

2014
 
 
 
 
226

345

416

468

507

525

2015
 
 
 
 
 
212

332

383

445

486

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
225

353

410

465

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
235

372

447

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
237

402

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
254

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
5,215

Commercial Property
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2012
$
369

$
333

$
334

$
334

$
336

$
335

$
334

$
333

$
1

26,786

2013
 
268

252

253

252

249

248

247


21,601

2014
 
 
293

281

282

280

279

281


21,017

2015
 
 
 
298

301

302

301

305

1

21,005

2016
 
 
 
 
405

419

399

406

1

23,710

2017
 
 
 
 
 
577

515

455

21

24,235

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
450

436

38

21,460

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
476

93

18,634

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
2,939

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2012
$
182

$
296

$
317

$
326

$
331

$
331

$
331

$
330

2013
 
161

223

238

243

242

244

245

2014
 
 
170

250

270

279

279

279

2015
 
 
 
179

257

284

296

301

2016
 
 
 
 
215

342

378

395

2017
 
 
 
 
 
229

378

412

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
188

344

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
214

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
2,520


Commercial Automobile Liability
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2010
$
290

$
291

$
309

$
335

$
338

$
344

$
344

$
341

$
340

$
339

$
3

38,158

2011
 
272

310

356

356

366

365

363

362

363

6

39,298

2012
 
 
311

377

391

402

395

389

387

388

6

36,043

2013
 
 
 
311

318

334

341

340

339

335

11

32,228

2014
 
 
 
 
309

317

331

337

341

334

14

29,597

2015
 
 
 
 
 
308

358

372

356

356

18

28,487

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
385

393

390

391

44

29,036

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
372

383

379

76

26,089

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
349

396

153

24,016

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
417

291

22,455

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
3,698

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expense, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
$
60

$
132

$
199

$
266

$
305

$
315

$
324

$
330

$
334

$
335

2011
 
63

133

211

274

316

339

348

353

354

2012
 
 
65

143

234

307

346

359

372

376

2013
 
 
 
62

130

202

259

295

311

321

2014
 
 
 
 
59

131

197

252

299

309

2015
 
 
 
 
 
62

142

207

267

314

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
65

147

232

303

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
60

134

211

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
62

153

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
63

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
2,739

Commercial Automobile Physical Damage
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2017
$
85

$
81

$
81

$
3

24,325

2018
 
62

62

1

20,508

2019
 
 
63

2

18,626

Total
 
 
$
206

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2017
2018
2019
2017
$
74

$
79

$
78

2018
 
54

60

2019
 
 
56

Total
 
 
$
194

Professional Liability
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Claims Made Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2012
$
242

$
238

$
238

$
218

$
221

$
220

$
219

$
225

$
19

7,025

2013
 
207

195

187

174

173

173

171

24

5,970

2014
 
 
187

183

181

177

179

182

26

6,705

2015
 
 
 
164

174

179

190

213

51

7,171

2016
 
 
 
 
183

176

203

196

66

8,288

2017
 
 
 
 
 
205

203

231

103

9,224

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
247

280

155

9,517

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
298

252

7,396

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
1,796

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Claims Made Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2012
$
17

$
67

$
100

$
139

$
154

$
168

$
172

$
175

2013
 
10

44

67

88

116

131

137

2014
 
 
7

38

74

107

130

135

2015
 
 
 
9

40

85

107

124

2016
 
 
 
 
8

51

88

111

2017
 
 
 
 
 
11

48

87

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
15

73

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
863

Bond
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2010
$
72

$
76

$
82

$
81

$
75

$
71

$
72

$
92

$
73

$
72

$
6

2,674

2011
 
74

78

78

76

71

71

71

71

72

9

2,136

2012
 
 
71

70

61

55

49

49

45

48

13

1,723

2013
 
 
 
64

58

55

48

49

39

35

15

1,463

2014
 
 
 
 
71

67

66

67

59

59

12

1,383

2015
 
 
 
 
 
67

67

63

60

54

19

1,385

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
61

61

61

56

32

1,324

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
63

90

101

42

1,547

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
68

68

49

1,383

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
72

68

1,122

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
637

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
$
14

$
46

$
60

$
60

$
60

$
65

$
67

$
67

$
69

$
64

2011
 
12

40

52

57

58

60

60

60

61

2012
 
 
12

25

26

24

26

26

34

35

2013
 
 
 
3

9

17

19

19

19

20

2014
 
 
 
 
18

31

40

43

43

45

2015
 
 
 
 
 
9

20

24

31

34

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
2

12

15

20

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5

46

55

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6

16

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
353

Assumed Reinsurance
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2012
$
107

$
99

$
93

$
88

$
115

$
120

$
119

$
121

$

1,424

2013
 
115

119

103

105

102

102

104

1

1,607

2014
 
 
119

142

122

118

115

116

1

1,654

2015
 
 
 
102

92

94

94

95


1,383

2016
 
 
 
 
88

91

98

100

3

1,434

2017
 
 
 
 
 
129

153

161

11

1,582

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
128

127

1

1,322

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
181

107

875

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
1,005

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2012
$
38

$
77

$
83

$
85

$
112

$
118

$
118

$
119

2013
 
53

83

91

98

100

101

103

2014
 
 
66

119

106

109

112

113

2015
 
 
 
42

64

77

83

91

2016
 
 
 
 
36

66

84

90

2017
 
 
 
 
 
44

116

135

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
25

111

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
62

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
824


Personal Automobile Liability
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2010
$
1,346

$
1,321

$
1,293

$
1,287

$
1,282

$
1,275

$
1,265

$
1,265

$
1,264

$
1,265

$
3

248,948

2011
 
1,181

1,170

1,180

1,173

1,166

1,154

1,154

1,153

1,153

4

221,890

2012
 
 
1,141

1,149

1,146

1,142

1,133

1,130

1,130

1,130

6

210,757

2013
 
 
 
1,131

1,145

1,144

1,153

1,152

1,153

1,157

8

205,475

2014
 
 
 
 
1,146

1,153

1,198

1,200

1,199

1,202

11

208,983

2015
 
 
 
 
 
1,195

1,340

1,338

1,330

1,331

21

216,827

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,407

1,402

1,393

1,397

46

215,658

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,277

1,275

1,228

109

186,993

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,108

1,104

246

154,648

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,018

461

131,577

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
11,985

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
$
496

$
915

$
1,108

$
1,202

$
1,239

$
1,251

$
1,256

$
1,258

$
1,260

$
1,260

2011
 
447

826

1,006

1,088

1,126

1,140

1,145

1,146

1,146

2012
 
 
441

818

986

1,067

1,104

1,114

1,120

1,122

2013
 
 
 
442

816

1,002

1,091

1,121

1,135

1,142

2014
 
 
 
 
430

843

1,032

1,125

1,165

1,182

2015
 
 
 
 
 
475

935

1,142

1,243

1,292

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
505

968

1,188

1,308

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
441

836

1,033

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
359

710

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
323

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
10,518

Personal Automobile Physical Damage
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2017
$
598

$
588

$
588

$
(1
)
362,235

2018
 
509

498

7

305,031

2019
 
 
445

(11
)
262,866

Total
 
 
$
1,531

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2017
2018
2019
2017
$
574

$
591

$
589

2018
 
474

491

2019
 
 
427

Total
 
 
$
1,507

Homeowners
Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2010
$
838

$
850

$
838

$
840

$
840

$
840

$
836

$
834

$
834

$
834

$
(1
)
161,597

2011
 
955

920

919

916

914

911

908

907

907


179,399

2012
 
 
774

741

741

741

739

738

738

738

1

142,845

2013
 
 
 
673

638

637

634

632

630

629

1

113,538

2014
 
 
 
 
710

707

702

700

698

698

(1
)
121,902

2015
 
 
 
 
 
690

703

690

684

684

2

119,944

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
669

673

663

658

4

119,646

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
866

889

884

41

124,189

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
903

910

60

101,985

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
501

107

78,068

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
7,443

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Accident Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
$
599

$
789

$
815

$
825

$
829

$
832

$
833

$
833

$
834

$
835

2011
 
709

871

891

899

903

905

908

907

908

2012
 
 
547

696

719

727

731

734

735

736

2013
 
 
 
467

590

611

622

626

627

628

2014
 
 
 
 
526

663

684

691

695

697

2015
 
 
 
 
 
487

645

665

674

680

2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
481

621

640

649

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
538

747

795

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
484

712

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
318

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
6,958

Property and casualty reserves, including IBNR reserves
The Company estimates ultimate losses and allocated loss adjustment expenses by accident year. IBNR represents the excess of estimated ultimate loss reserves over case reserves. The process to estimate ultimate losses and loss adjustment expenses is an integral part of the Company's reserve setting. Reserves for allocated and unallocated loss adjustment expenses are generally established separate from the reserves for losses.
Reserves for losses are set by line of business within the reporting segments. Case reserves are established by a claims handler on each individual claim and are adjusted as new information becomes known during the course of handling the claim. Lines of business for which reported losses emerge over a long period of time are referred to as long-tail lines of business. Lines of business for which reported losses emerge more quickly are
referred to as short-tail lines of business. The Company’s shortest tail lines of business are homeowners, commercial property and automobile physical damage. The longest tail lines of business include workers’ compensation, general liability and professional liability. For short-tail lines of business, emergence of paid loss and case reserves is credible and likely indicative of ultimate losses. For long-tail lines of business, emergence of paid losses and case reserves is less credible in the early periods after a given accident year and, accordingly, may not be indicative of ultimate losses.
The Company’s reserving actuaries regularly review reserves for both current and prior accident years using the most current claim data. A variety of actuarial methods and judgments are used for most lines of business to arrive at selections of estimated ultimate losses and loss adjustment expenses. The reserve selections incorporate input, as appropriate, from claims
personnel, pricing actuaries and operating management about reported loss cost trends and other factors that could affect the reserve estimates.
For both short-tail and long-tail lines of business, an expected loss ratio is used to record initial reserves. This expected loss ratio is determined by starting with the average loss ratio of recent prior accident years and adjusting that ratio for the effect of expected changes to earned pricing, loss frequency and severity, mix of business, ceded reinsurance and other factors. For short-tail lines, IBNR for the current accident year is initially recorded as the product of the expected loss ratio for the period, earned premium for the period and the proportion of losses expected to be reported in future calendar periods for the current accident period. For long-tailed lines, IBNR reserves for the current accident year are initially recorded as the product of the expected loss ratio for the period and the earned premium for the period, less reported losses for the period. For certain short-tailed lines of business, IBNR amounts in the above loss development triangles are negative due to anticipated salvage and subrogation recoveries on paid losses.
As losses for a given accident year emerge or develop in subsequent periods, reserving actuaries use other methods to estimate ultimate unpaid losses in addition to the expected loss ratio method. These primarily include paid and reported loss development methods, frequency/severity techniques and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method (a combination of the expected loss ratio and paid development or reported development method). Within any one line of business, the methods that are given more weight vary based primarily on the maturity of the accident year, the mix of business and the particular internal and external influences impacting the claims experience or the methods. The output of the reserve reviews are reserve estimates that are referred to as the “actuarial indication”.
Paid development and reported development techniques are used for most lines of business though more weight is given to the reported development method for some of the long-tailed lines like general liability. In addition, for long-tailed lines of business, the Company relies on the expected loss ratio method for immature accident years. Frequency/severity techniques are used predominantly for professional liability and are also used for automobile liability. The Berquist-Sherman technique is also used
for automobile liability, marine and assumed reinsurance. For most lines, reserves for allocated loss adjustment expenses ("ALAE", or those expenses related to specific claims) are analyzed using paid development techniques and an analysis of the relationship between ALAE and loss payments. For most of the lines acquired through the Navigators Group book of business, loss and ALAE are reviewed on a combined basis. Reserves for ULAE are determined using the expected cost per claim year and the anticipated claim closure pattern as well as the ratio of paid ULAE to paid losses.
In the final step of the reserve review process, senior reserving actuaries and senior management apply their judgment to determine the appropriate level of reserves considering the actuarial indications and other factors not contemplated in the actuarial indications. Those factors include, but are not limited to, the assessed reliability of key loss trends and assumptions used in the current actuarial indications, the maturity of the accident year, pertinent trends observed over the recent past, the level of volatility within a particular line of business, and the improvement or deterioration of actuarial indications. The Company also considers the magnitude of the difference between the actuarial indication and the recorded reserves.
Cumulative number of reported claims
For most property and casualty lines, claim counts represent the number of claim features on a reported claim where a claim feature is each separate coverage for each claimant affected by the claim event.  For example, one car accident that results in two bodily injury claims and one automobile damage liability claim would be counted as three claims within the personal automobile liability triangle. Similarly, a fire that impacts one commercial building may result in multiple claim features due to the potential for claims related to business interruption, structural damage, and loss of the physical contents of the building. Claim features that result in no paid losses are included in the reported claim counts. For some property and casualty lines, such as marine and assumed reinsurance, a claim count represents each reported claim regardless of the number of features. For assumed bordereau business and business written on binders, one claim count is posted for each bordereau received, which could account for multiple claims.

Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
 
(Unaudited)
 
Reserve Line
1st Year
2nd Year
3rd Year
4th Year
5th Year
6th Year
7th Year
8th Year
9th Year
10th Year
Workers' compensation
15.6
%
19.3
%
12.7
%
8.7
%
5.9
%
4.3
%
2.9
%
2.6
%
1.8
%
1.6
%
General liability
2.9
%
8.4
%
15.0
%
18.5
%
15.8
%
10.5
%
7.5
%
4.4
%
2.5
%
1.9
%
Marine
26.7
%
32.3
%
17.9
 %
8.8
%
7.1
%
2.3
%
2.6
%
2.5
 %


Package business
37.4
%
21.6
%
10.4
%
8.7
%
5.8
%
3.3
%
2.2
%
1.0
%
0.6
%
0.3
%
Commercial property
53.8
%
30.5
%
7.4
%
3.1
%
0.8
%
0.3
%
0.1
%
(0.2
%)


Commercial automobile liability
16.9
%
21.0
%
20.8
%
17.8
%
11.8
%
4.3
%
2.7
%
1.4
%
0.7
%
0.3
%
Commercial automobile physical damage
89.1
%
7.8
%
(0.4
)%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Professional liability
5.4
%
18.8
%
17.5
%
14.0
%
11.1
%
5.7
%
2.7
%
1.0
%


Bond
13.8
%
27.2
%
12.6
%
4.8
%
1.9
%
2.2
%
5.7
%
0.5
%
1.8
%
(6.2
%)
Assumed Reinsurance
37.7
%
39.0
%
7.4
 %
4.7
%
8.8
%
2.3
%
0.9
%
0.7
 %


Personal automobile liability
36.3
%
33.1
%
15.6
%
7.6
%
3.2
%
1.1
%
0.5
%
0.2
%
0.1
%
%
Personal automobile physical damage
96.3
%
3.0
%
(0.3
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Homeowners
69.6
%
21.5
%
3.3
%
1.2
%
0.6
%
0.3
%
0.1
%
0.1
%
%
0.1
%

Group Life, Disability and Accident Products
Rollforward of Liabilities for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
2019
2018
2017
Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross
$
8,445

$
8,512

$
5,772

Reinsurance recoverables
239

209

208

Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net
8,206

8,303

5,564

Aetna U.S. group life and disability business acquisition [1]

42

2,833

Provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses






Current incurral year
4,385

4,470

2,868

Prior year's discount accretion
219

227

202

Prior incurral year development [2]
(410
)
(324
)
(185
)
Total provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses [3]
4,194

4,373

2,885

Payments






Current incurral year
(2,277
)
(2,377
)
(1,528
)
Prior incurral years
(2,114
)
(2,135
)
(1,451
)
Total payments
(4,391
)
(4,512
)
(2,979
)
Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net
8,009

8,206

8,303

Reinsurance recoverables
247

239

209

Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross
$
8,256

$
8,445

$
8,512

[1]
Amount recognized in 2018 represents an adjustment to Aetna U.S. group life and disability business reserves, net of reinsurance as of the acquisition date, upon finalization of the opening balance sheet.
[2]
Prior incurral year development represents the change in estimated ultimate incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses for prior incurral years on a discounted basis.
[3]
Includes unallocated loss adjustment expenses of $178, $194 and $111 for the years ended December 31, 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively, that are recorded in insurance operating costs and other expenses in the Consolidated Statements of Operations.
Group Life, Disability and Accident Products Reserves, Net of Reinsurance, that are Discounted
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
2019
2018
2017
Liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, at undiscounted amounts
$
8,636
 
$
8,957
 
$
9,071
 
Amount of discount
(1,401
)
(1,505
)
(1,536
)
Carrying value of liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses
$
7,235
 
$
7,452
 
$
7,535
 
Weighted average discount rate
3.4
%
3.4
%
3.5
%
Range of discount rate
2.1
%
-
8.0
%
2.1
%
-
8.0
%
2.1
%
-
8.0
%

Reserves are discounted at rates in effect at the time claims were incurred, ranging from 2.1% for life and disability reserves acquired from Aetna based on interest rates in effect at the acquisition date of November 1, 2017, to 8.0% for the Company’s pre-acquisition reserves for incurral year 1990, and vary by product. Prior year's discount accretion has been calculated as the average reserve balance for the year times the weighted average discount rate.
Re-estimates of prior incurral years reserve in 2019
Group disability- Prior period reserve estimates decreased by approximately $340 largely driven by group long-term disability claim incidence lower than prior assumptions and strong recoveries on prior incurral year claims, including the impact of updating long-term disability ("LTD") recovery probabilities to be based on more recent experience. New York Paid Family Leave also experienced favorable claim emergence including an experience refund.
Group life and accident (including group life premium waiver)- Prior period reserve estimates decreased by approximately $60 largely driven by lower-than-previously expected claim incidence in group life premium waiver.
Re-estimates of prior incurral years reserves in 2018
Group disability- Prior period reserve estimates decreased by approximately $230 largely driven by group long-
term disability claim recoveries higher than prior reserve assumptions and, primarily for the 2017 incurral year, claim incidence lower than prior assumptions. Short-term disability also experienced favorable claim recoveries.
Group life and accident (including group life premium waiver)- Prior period reserve estimates decreased by approximately $90 largely driven by lower-than-previously expected claim incidence inclusive of group life, group life premium waiver, and group accidental death & dismemberment, principally for the 2017 incurral year.
Re-estimates of prior incurral years reserves in 2017
Group disability- Prior period estimates decreased by approximately $125 driven by group long-term disability favorable claim incidence for incurral year 2016 and claim recoveries higher than prior reserve assumptions.
Group life and accident (including group life premium waiver)- Contributing to an approximately $60 decrease in prior period reserve estimates was favorable claim incidence on group life premium waiver for incurral year 2016.
Reconciliation of Loss Development to Liability for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses as of December 31, 2019
 
Losses and Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
 
Subtotal
 
 
Reserve Line
Cumulative Incurred for Incurral Years Displayed in Triangles
Cumulative Paid for Incurral Years Displayed in Triangles
Unpaid for Incurral Years not Displayed in Triangles
Unpaid Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Discount
Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Reinsurance and Other Recoverables
Liability for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
Group long-term disability
$
13,157

$
(7,316
)
$
1,874

$
173

$
(1,272
)
$
6,616

$
236

$
6,852

Group life and accident, excluding premium waiver
5,793

(5,332
)
134

3

(18
)
580

1

581

Group short-term disability
 
 
114

4


118


118

Group life premium waiver
 
 
758

10

(111
)
657

2

659

Group supplemental health
 
 
38



38

8

46

Total Group Benefits
$
18,950

$
(12,648
)
$
2,918

$
190

$
(1,401
)
$
8,009

$
247

$
8,256


The following loss triangles present historical loss development for incurred and paid claims by the year the insured claim occurred, referred to as the incurral year. Triangles are limited to the number of years for which claims incurred typically remain outstanding. For group long-term disability, the Company has
provided nine incurral years of claims data as data for earlier periods was not available with respect to the U.S. group life and disability business acquired from Aetna. Short-tail lines, which represent claims generally expected to be paid within a few years, have three years of claim development displayed.
Group Long-Term Disability
Undiscounted Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
 
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Incurral
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
IBNR
Reserves
Claims
Reported
2011
$
1,917

$
1,761

$
1,660

$
1,659

$
1,669

$
1,660

$
1,649

$
1,638

$
1,631

$

39,246

2012
 
1,829

1,605

1,539

1,532

1,530

1,515

1,504

1,486


37,523

2013
 
 
1,660

1,479

1,429

1,429

1,416

1,413

1,399

1

31,946

2014
 
 
 
1,636

1,473

1,430

1,431

1,431

1,408

2

33,213

2015
 
 
 
 
1,595

1,442

1,422

1,420

1,401

3

33,820

2016
 
 
 
 
 
1,651

1,481

1,468

1,437

3

34,719

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,597

1,413

1,358

8

31,865

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,647

1,387

37

28,551

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1,650

852

17,753

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
13,157

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
 
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
Incurral Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2011
$
118

$
508

$
743

$
886

$
996

$
1,087

$
1,167

$
1,231

$
1,286

2012
 
108

483

708

835

933

1,014

1,080

1,138

2013
 
 
102

443

664

791

881

954

1,016

2014
 
 
 
103

448

675

801

884

960

2015
 
 
 
 
108

460

687

806

891

2016
 
 
 
 
 
112

479

705

819

2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
109

452

658

2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
105

447

2019
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
101

Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
7,316


Group Life and Accident, excluding Premium Waiver
Undiscounted Incurred Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
 
 
(Unaudited)
 
 
 
Incurral Year
2017
2018
2019
IBNR Reserves
Claims Reported
2017
$
1,999

$
1,953

$
1,951

$
4

45,139

2018
 
1,952

1,940

18

52,027

2019
 
 
1,902

373

45,825

Total
 
 
$
5,793

 
 
Cumulative Paid Losses & Allocated Loss Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
 
For the years ended December 31,
 
(Unaudited)
 
Incurral Year
2017
2018
2019
2017
$
1,551

$
1,929

$
1,945

2018
 
1,532

1,916

2019
 
 
1,471

Total
 
 
$
5,332


Group life, disability and accident reserves, including IBNR
The majority of Group Benefits’ reserves are for LTD claimants who are known to be disabled and are currently receiving
benefits. A Disabled Life Reserve ("DLR") is calculated for each LTD claim. The DLR for each claim is the expected present value of all estimated future benefit payments and includes estimates of claim recovery, investment yield, and offsets from other income, including offsets from Social Security benefits and workers’ compensation. Estimated future benefit payments represent the monthly income benefit that is paid until recovery, death or expiration of benefits. Claim recoveries are estimated based on claim characteristics such as age and diagnosis and represent an estimate of benefits that will terminate, generally as a result of the claimant returning to work or being deemed able to return to work. The DLR also includes a liability for payments to claimants who have not yet been approved for LTD either because they have not yet satisfied the waiting (or elimination) period or because the approval or denial decision has not yet been made. In these cases, the present value of future benefits is reduced for the likelihood of claim denial based on Company experience. For claims recently closed due to recovery, a portion of the DLR is retained for the possibility that the claim reopens upon further evidence of disability.  In addition, a reserve for estimated unpaid claim expenses is included in the DLR.
For incurral years with IBNR claims, estimates of ultimate losses are made by applying completion factors to the dollar amount of claims reported or expected depending on the market segment. IBNR represents estimated ultimate losses less both DLR and cumulative paid amounts for all reported claims. Completion factors are derived using standard actuarial techniques using triangles that display historical claim count emergence by incurral month. These estimates are reviewed for reasonableness and are adjusted for current trends and other factors expected to cause a change in claim emergence. The IBNR includes an estimate of unpaid claim expenses, including a provision for the cost of initial set-up of the claim once reported.
For all products, including LTD, there is a period generally ranging from two to twelve months, depending on the product and market segment, where emerged claim information for an incurral year is not yet credible enough to be a basis for an IBNR projection.  In these cases, the ultimate losses and allocated loss adjustment
expenses are estimated using earned premium multiplied by an expected loss ratio.
The Company also records reserves for future death benefits under group term life policies that provide for premiums to be waived in the event the insured is unable to work due to disability and has satisfied an elimination period, which is typically nine months (premium waiver reserves). The death benefit reserve for these group life premium waiver claims is estimated for a known disabled claimant equal to the present value of expected future cash outflows (typically a lump sum face amount payable at death plus claim expenses) with separate estimates for claimant recovery (when no death benefit is payable) and for death before recovery or benefit expiry (when death benefit is payable). The IBNR for premium waiver death benefits is estimated with standard actuarial development methods.
In addition, the Company also records reserves for group term life, accidental death & dismemberment, short term disability, and
other group products that have short claim payout periods. For these products, reserves are determined using paid or reported actuarial development methods. The resulting claim triangles produce a completion pattern and estimate of ultimate loss. IBNR for these lines of business equals the estimated ultimate losses and loss adjustment expenses less the amount of paid or reported claims depending on whether the paid or reported development method was used. Estimates are reviewed for reasonableness and are adjusted for current trends or other factors that affect the development pattern.
Cumulative number of reported claims
For group life, disability and accident coverages, claim counts include claims that are approved, pending approval and terminated and exclude denied claims. Due to the nature of the claims, one claimant represents one event.
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
 
(Unaudited)
 
1st Year
2nd Year
3rd Year
4th Year
5th Year
6th Year
7th Year
8th Year
9th Year
Group long-term disability
7.4
%
24.8
%
15.5
%
8.6
%
6.3
%
5.4
%
4.6
%
3.9
%
3.4
%
Group life and accident, excluding premium waiver
78.6
%
19.6
%
0.9
%
 
 
 
 
 
 

12. RESERVE FOR FUTURE POLICY BENEFITS
Changes in Reserves for Future Policy Benefits [1]
Liability balance, as of January 1, 2019
$
642

Incurred
86

Paid
(102
)
Change in unrealized investment gains and losses
9

Liability balance, as of December 31, 2019
$
635

Reinsurance recoverable asset, as of January 1, 2019
$
27

Incurred
4

Paid

Reinsurance recoverable asset, as of December 31, 2019
$
31

Liability balance, as of January 1, 2018
$
713

Incurred
72

Paid
(101
)
Change in unrealized investment gains and losses
(42
)
Liability balance, as of December 31, 2018
$
642

Reinsurance recoverable asset, as of January 1, 2018
$
26

Incurred
1

Paid

Reinsurance recoverable asset, as of December 31, 2018
$
27

[1]
Reserves for future policy benefits includes paid-up life insurance and whole-life policies resulting from conversion from group life policies included within the Group Benefits segment and reserves for run-off structured settlement and terminal funding agreement liabilities which are in the Corporate category.