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Fair Value
3 Months Ended
Sep. 30, 2012
FAIR VALUE

3. FAIR VALUE

The fair value of current financial assets and liabilities, debt service reserves and other deposits approximate their reported carrying amounts. The estimated fair values of the Company's assets and liabilities have been determined using available market information. By virtue of these amounts being estimates and based on hypothetical transactions to sell assets or transfer liabilities, the use of different market assumptions and/or estimation methodologies may have a material effect on the estimated fair value amounts.

Valuation Techniques

The fair value measurement accounting guidance describes three main approaches to measuring the fair value of assets and liabilities: (1) market approach, (2) income approach and (3) cost approach. The market approach uses prices and other relevant information generated from market transactions involving identical or comparable assets or liabilities. The income approach uses valuation techniques to convert future amounts to a single present value amount. The measurement is based on current market expectations of the return on those future amounts. The cost approach is based on the amount that would currently be required to replace an asset. The Company measures its investments and derivatives at fair value on a recurring basis. Additionally, in connection with annual or event-driven impairment evaluations, certain nonfinancial assets and liabilities are measured at fair value on a nonrecurring basis. These include long-lived tangible assets (i.e., property, plant and equipment), goodwill and intangible assets (e.g., sales concessions, land use rights and emissions allowances, etc.). In general, the Company determines the fair value of investments and derivatives using the market approach and the income approach, respectively. In the nonrecurring measurements of nonfinancial assets and liabilities, all three approaches are considered; however, fair value estimated under the income approach is often selected. Assets and liabilities are classified in their entirety based on the lowest level of input that is significant to the fair value measurement. The Company's assessment of the significance of a particular input to the fair value measurement requires judgment, and may affect the determination of the fair value of the assets and liabilities and their placement within the fair value hierarchy levels.

Investments

The Company's investments measured at fair value generally consist of marketable debt and equity securities. Equity securities are measured at fair value using quoted market prices. Debt securities primarily consist of unsecured debentures, certificates of deposit and government debt securities held by our Brazilian subsidiaries. Returns and pricing on these instruments are generally indexed to the CDI (Brazilian equivalent to London Inter-Bank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, a benchmark interest rate widely used by banks in the interbank lending market) or Selic (overnight borrowing rate) rates in Brazil. Fair value is determined from comparisons to market data obtained for similar assets and are considered Level 2 in the fair value hierarchy. For more detail regarding the fair value of investments see Note 4—Investments in Marketable Securities.

Derivatives

The fair value of interest rate swap, cap and floor agreements, foreign currency forwards, swaps and options, and energy derivatives is the estimated net amount that the Company would receive or pay to sell or transfer the agreements as of the balance sheet date.

When deemed appropriate, the Company manages its risk from interest and foreign currency exchange rate and commodity price fluctuations through the use of over-the-counter or exchange traded financial and physical derivative instruments. The derivatives are primarily interest rate swaps to hedge non-recourse debt to establish a fixed rate on variable rate debt, foreign exchange instruments to hedge against currency fluctuations, commodity derivatives to hedge against commodity price fluctuations and embedded derivatives associated with commodity contracts. The Company's subsidiaries are counterparties to various over-the-counter or exchange traded derivatives, which include interest rate swaps and options, foreign currency options and forwards and commodity swaps. In addition, the Company's subsidiaries are counterparties to certain Power Purchase Agreements (“PPAs”) and fuel supply agreements that are derivatives or include embedded derivatives.

For derivatives for which there is a standard industry valuation model, the Company uses a third-party treasury and risk management software product that uses a standard model and observable inputs to estimate the fair value. For these derivatives, the Company performs analytical procedures and makes comparisons to other third-party information in order to assess the reasonableness of the fair value. For derivatives for which there is not a standard industry valuation model (such as PPAs and fuel supply agreements that are derivatives or include embedded derivatives), the Company has created internal valuation models to estimate the fair value, using observable data to the extent available. At each quarter-end, the models for the commodity and foreign currency-based derivatives are generally prepared and reviewed by employees who globally manage the respective commodity and foreign currency risks, and analytically reviewed independent of those employees. For all derivatives, with the exception of those classified as Level 1, the income approach is used, which consists of forecasting future cash flows based on contractual notional amounts and applicable and available market data as of the valuation date. Among the most common market data inputs used in the income approach include volatilities, spot and forward benchmark interest rates (such as LIBOR and Euro Inter Bank Offered Rate (“EURIBOR”)), foreign exchange rates and commodity prices. Forward rates with the same tenor as the derivative instrument being valued are generally obtained from published sources, with these forward rates being assessed quarterly at a portfolio-level for reasonableness versus comparable published information provided from another source. In situations where significant inputs are not observable, the Company uses relevant techniques to best estimate the inputs, such as regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulation or prices for similarly traded instruments available in the market.

For each derivative, with the exception of those classified as Level 1, the income approach is used to estimate the cash flows over the remaining term of the contract. Those cash flows are then discounted using the relevant spot benchmark interest rate (such as LIBOR or EURIBOR) plus a spread that reflects the credit or nonperformance risk. This risk is estimated by the Company using credit spreads and risk premiums that are observable in the market, whenever possible, or estimated borrowing costs based on bank quotes, industry publications and/or information on financing closed on similar projects. To the extent that management can estimate the fair value of these assets or liabilities without the use of significant unobservable inputs, the fair value of these derivatives are classified as Level 2.

The Company's methodology to fair value its derivatives is to start with any observable inputs; however, in certain instances the published forward rates or prices may not extend through the remaining term of the contract and management must make assumptions to extrapolate the curve, which necessitates the use of unobservable inputs, such as proxy commodity prices or historical settlements to forecast forward prices. In addition, in certain instances, there may not be third party data readily available, requiring the use of unobservable inputs. Similarly, in certain instances, the spread that reflects the credit or nonperformance risk is unobservable. The fair value hierarchy of an asset or a liability is based on the level of significance of the input assumptions. An input assumption is considered significant if it affects the fair value by at least 10%. Assets and liabilities are transferred to Level 3 when the use of unobservable inputs becomes significant. Similarly, when the use of unobservable inputs becomes insignificant for Level 3 assets and liabilities, they are transferred to Level 2. Transfers between Level 3 and Level 2 are determined as of the end of the reporting period.

The following table summarizes the significant unobservable inputs used for the Level 3 derivative assets (liabilities) at September 30, 2012:

       Amount or Range
Type of Derivative Fair Value Unobservable Input (Weighted Average)
  (in millions)     
         
Interest rate$ (297) Subsidiaries' credit spreads 3% - 3.75% (3.43%)
Foreign currency:       
 Embedded derivative - Argentine Peso  61 Argentine Peso to U.S. Dollar  
      currency exchange rate after 2 years 8.2
 Other  (1)     
Commodity & other:       
 Embedded derivative - Aluminum  (50) Market price of power for   
      customer in Cameroon (per KWh) $0.06 - $0.14 ($0.12)
 Embedded derivative - Philippine inflation  11 U.S. Producer Price Index after 5 years  
      (where base year of 2005 = 100) 141.3 - 174.54 (152.74)
 Other  1     
Total$ (275)     

Changes in the above significant unobservable inputs that lead to a significant and unusual impact to current period earnings are disclosed to the Financial Audit Committee. For interest rate derivatives, increases (decreases) in the estimates of our own credit spreads would decrease (increase) the value of the derivatives in a liability position. For foreign currency derivatives, increases (decreases) in the estimate of the above exchange rate would increase (decrease) the value of the derivative. For commodity and other derivatives in the above table, increases (decreases) in the estimated inflation would increase (decrease) the value of those embedded derivatives, while increases (decreases) in the estimated market price for power would increase (decrease) the value of that embedded derivative.

The only Level 1 derivative instruments as of September 30, 2012 are exchange-traded commodity futures for which the pricing is observable in active markets, and as such, these are not expected to transfer to other levels. There have been no transfers between Level 1 and Level 2.

Debt

Recourse and non-recourse debt are carried at amortized cost. The fair value of recourse debt is estimated based on quoted market prices. The fair value of non-recourse debt is estimated differently based upon the type of loan. In general, the carrying amount of variable rate debt is a close approximation of its fair value. For fixed rate loans, the fair value is estimated using quoted market prices or discounted cash flow analyses. In the discounted cash flow analysis, the discount rate is based on the credit rating of the individual debt instruments, if available, or the credit rating of the subsidiary. If the subsidiary's credit rating is not available, a synthetic credit rating is determined using certain key metrics, including cash flow ratios and interest coverage, as well as other industry specific factors. For subsidiaries located outside the U.S., in the event that the country rating is lower than the credit rating previously determined, the country rating is used for purposes of the discounted cash flow analysis. The fair value of recourse and non-recourse debt excludes accrued interest at the valuation date. The fair value was determined using available market information as of September 30, 2012. The Company is not aware of any factors that would significantly affect the fair value amounts subsequent to September 30, 2012.

Nonfinancial Assets and Liabilities

For nonrecurring measurements derived using the income approach, fair value is determined using valuation models based on the principles of discounted cash flows (“DCF”). The income approach is most often used in the impairment evaluation of long-lived tangible assets, goodwill and intangible assets. The Company uses its internally developed DCF valuation models as the primary means to determine nonrecurring fair value measurements though other valuation approaches prescribed under the fair value measurement accounting guidance are also considered. Depending on the complexity of a valuation, an independent valuation firm may be engaged to assist management in the valuation process. A few examples of input assumptions to such valuations include macroeconomic factors such as growth rates, industry demand, inflation, exchange rates and power and commodity prices. Whenever possible, the Company attempts to obtain market observable data to develop input assumptions. Where the use of market observable data is limited or not available for certain input assumptions, the Company develops its own estimates using a variety of techniques such as regression analysis and extrapolations.

For nonrecurring measurements derived using the market approach, recent market transactions involving the sale of identical or similar assets are considered. The use of this approach is limited because it is often difficult to identify sale transactions of identical or similar assets. This approach is used in impairment evaluations of certain intangible assets. Otherwise, it is used to corroborate the fair value determined under the income approach.

For nonrecurring measurements derived using the cost approach, fair value is typically determined using the replacement cost approach. Under this approach, the depreciated replacement cost of assets is determined by first determining the current replacement cost of assets and then applying the remaining useful life percentages to such costs. Further adjustments for economic and functional obsolescence are made to the depreciated replacement cost. This approach involves a considerable amount of judgment, which is why its use is limited to the measurement of a few long-lived tangible assets. Like the market approach, this approach is also used to corroborate the fair value determined under the income approach

Fair Value Considerations

In determining fair value, the Company considers the source of observable market data inputs, liquidity of the instrument, the credit risk of the counterparty and the risk of the Company's or its counterparty's nonperformance. The conditions and criteria used to assess these factors are:

Sources of market assumptions

The Company derives most of its market assumptions from market efficient data sources (e.g., Bloomberg and Reuters). To determine fair value, where market data is not readily available, management uses comparable market sources and empirical evidence to develop its own estimates of market assumptions.

Market liquidity

The Company evaluates market liquidity based on whether the financial or physical instrument, or the underlying asset, is traded in an active or inactive market. An active market exists if the prices are fully transparent to market participants, can be measured by market bid and ask quotes, the market has a relatively large proportion of trading volume as compared to the Company's current trading volume and the market has a significant number of market participants that will allow the market to rapidly absorb the quantity of assets traded without significantly affecting the market price. Another factor the Company considers when determining whether a market is active or inactive is the presence of government or regulatory controls over pricing that could make it difficult to establish a market based price when entering into a transaction.

Nonperformance risk

Nonperformance risk refers to the risk that an obligation will not be fulfilled and affects the value at which a liability is transferred or an asset is sold. Nonperformance risk includes, but may not be limited to, the Company or its counterparty's credit and settlement risk. Nonperformance risk adjustments are dependent on credit spreads, letters of credit, collateral, other arrangements available and the nature of master netting arrangements. The Company and its subsidiaries are parties to various interest rate swaps and options; foreign currency options and forwards; and derivatives and embedded derivatives, which subject the Company to nonperformance risk. The financial and physical instruments held at the subsidiary level are generally non-recourse to the Parent Company.

Nonperformance risk on the investments held by the Company is incorporated in the fair value derived from quoted market data to mark the investments to fair value.

The Company adjusts for nonperformance or credit risk on its derivative instruments by deducting a credit valuation adjustment (“CVA”). The CVA is based on the margin or debt spread of the Company's subsidiary or its counterparty and the tenor of the respective derivative instrument. The counterparty for a derivative asset position is considered to be the bank or government sponsored banking entity or counterparty to the PPA or commodity contract. The CVA for asset positions is based on the counterparty's credit ratings and debt spreads or, in the absence of readily obtainable credit information, the respective country's debt spreads are used as a proxy. The CVA for liability positions is based on the Parent Company's or the subsidiary's current debt spread, the margin on indicative financing arrangements, or in the absence of readily obtainable credit information, the respective country's debt spreads are used as a proxy. All derivative instruments are analyzed individually and are subject to unique risk exposures.

Recurring Measurements

The following table sets forth, by level within the fair value hierarchy, the Company's financial assets and liabilities that were measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of September 30, 2012 and December 31, 2011:

   Fair Value
    Total Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
          
 (in millions)
September 30, 2012           
              
Assets           
 Available-for-sale securities$ 857 $ 1 $ 856 $ -
 Trading securities  12   12   -   -
 Derivatives  126   -   42   84
  Total assets$ 995 $ 13 $ 898 $ 84
              
Liabilities           
 Derivatives$ 844 $ - $ 485 $ 359
  Total liabilities$ 844 $ - $ 485 $ 359
              
              
December 31, 2011           
              
Assets           
 Available-for-sale securities$ 1,340 $ 1 $ 1,339 $ -
 Trading securities  12   12   -   -
 Derivatives  120   2   52   66
  Total assets$ 1,472 $ 15 $ 1,391 $ 66
              
Liabilities           
 Derivatives$ 690 $ - $ 476 $ 214
  Total liabilities$ 690 $ - $ 476 $ 214

The following tables present a reconciliation of net derivative assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis using significant unobservable inputs (Level 3) for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011 (presented net by type of derivative where any foreign currency impacts are presented as part of gains (losses) in earnings or other comprehensive income as appropriate):

    Three Months Ended September 30, 2012
    Interest Cross Foreign Commodity  
    Rate  Currency Currency and Other Total
                
   (in millions)
                  
Balance at July 1 $ (281) $ - $ 47 $ (52) $ (286)
 Total gains (losses) (realized and unrealized):               
  Included in earnings (1)   (1)   -   14   16   29
  Included in other comprehensive income   (29)   -   -   -   (29)
  Included in regulatory (assets) liabilities   -   -   -   2   2
 Settlements   12   -   (1)   (4)   7
 Transfers of (assets) liabilities out of Level 3 (2)   2   -   -   -   2
Balance at September 30 $ (297) $ - $ 60 $ (38) $ (275)
                  
Total gains (losses) for the period included in earnings               
 attributable to the change in unrealized gains/(losses)               
 relating to assets and liabilities held at the end of the               
 period $ (1) $ - $ 13 $ 18 $ 30
                  
    Three Months Ended September 30, 2011
    Interest Cross Foreign Commodity  
    Rate  Currency Currency and Other Total
                
   (in millions)
                  
Balance at July 1 $ (60) $ 15 $ 38 $ 17 $ 10
 Total gains (losses) (realized and unrealized):               
  Included in earnings (1)   -   (3)   4   (44)   (43)
  Included in other comprehensive income   (36)   (37)   -   -   (73)
  Included in regulatory (assets) liabilities   -   -   -   (3)   (3)
 Settlements   4   4   (1)   (8)   (1)
 Transfers of assets (liabilities) into Level 3 (2)   (101)   -   -   -   (101)
 Transfers of (assets) liabilities out of Level 3 (2)   2   -   -   -   2
Balance at September 30 $ (191) $ (21) $ 41 $ (38) $ (209)
                  
Total gains (losses) for the period included in earnings               
 attributable to the change in unrealized gains/(losses)               
 relating to assets and liabilities held at the end of the               
 period $ - $ (2) $ 2 $ (52) $ (52)
                  

    Nine Months Ended September 30, 2012
    Interest Cross Foreign Commodity  
    Rate  Currency Currency and Other Total
                
   (in millions)
                  
Balance at January 1 $ (128) $ (18) $ 51 $ (53) $ (148)
 Total gains (losses) (realized and unrealized):               
  Included in earnings (1)   (1)   -   12   10   21
  Included in other comprehensive income   (30)   8   -   -   (22)
  Included in regulatory (assets) liabilities   -   -   -   9   9
 Settlements   19   11   (3)   (4)   23
 Transfers of assets (liabilities) into Level 3 (2)   (159)   -   -   -   (159)
 Transfers of (assets) liabilities out of Level 3 (2)   2   (1)   -   -   1
Balance at September 30 $ (297) $ - $ 60 $ (38) $ (275)
                  
Total gains/(losses) for the period included in earnings               
 attributable to the change in unrealized gains/(losses)               
 relating to assets and liabilities held at the end of the               
 period $ (1) $ - $ 10 $ 13 $ 22
                  
    Nine Months Ended September 30, 2011
    Interest Cross Foreign Commodity  
    Rate  Currency Currency and Other Total
                
   (in millions)
                  
Balance at January 1 $ (1) $ 10 $ 22 $ 18 $ 49
 Total gains (losses) (realized and unrealized):               
  Included in earnings (1)   -   (5)   21   (50)   (34)
  Included in other comprehensive income   (3)   (34)   -   -   (37)
  Included in regulatory (assets) liabilities   -   -   -   3   3
 Settlements   -   8   (2)   (9)   (3)
 Transfers of assets (liabilities) into Level 3 (2)   (189)   -   -   -   (189)
 Transfers of (assets) liabilities out of Level 3 (2)   2   -   -   -   2
Balance at September 30 $ (191) $ (21) $ 41 $ (38) $ (209)
                  
Total gains/(losses) for the period included in earnings                
 attributable to the change in unrealized gains/(losses)                
 relating to assets and liabilities held at the end of the                
 period $ - $ (2) $ 18 $ (56) $ (40)

(1)       The gains (losses) included in earnings for these Level 3 derivatives are classified as follows: interest rate and cross currency derivatives as interest expense; foreign currency derivatives as foreign currency transaction gains (losses); and commodity and other derivatives as either non-regulated revenue, non-regulated cost of sales, or other expense. See Note 5—Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities for further information regarding the classification of gains and losses included in earnings in the condensed consolidated statements of operations.

(2)       Transfers in and out of Level 3 are determined as of the end of the reporting period and are from and to Level 2. The assets (liabilities) transferred into and out of Level 3 are primarily the result of an increase or decrease in the significance of unobservable inputs used to calculate the CVAs of these derivative instruments.

The following table presents a reconciliation of available-for-sale securities measured at fair value on a recurring basis using significant unobservable inputs (Level 3) for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011:

    Three Months  Nine Months
    Ended September 30, Ended September 30,
    2012 2011 2012 2011
             
   (in millions)
               
Balance at beginning of period $ - $ 40 $ - $ 42
 Settlements   -   -   -   (2)
Balance at September 30 $ - $ 40 $ - $ 40
               
Total gains/(losses) for the period included in             
 earnings attributable to the change in unrealized             
 gains/losses relating to assets held at the            

Nonrecurring Measurements

For purposes of impairment evaluation, the Company measured the fair value of long-lived assets and equity method investments under the fair value measurement accounting guidance. Impairment expense is measured by comparing the fair value of asset groups at the evaluation date to their carrying amount at the end of the month prior to the evaluation date. The following table summarizes major categories of assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a nonrecurring basis during the period and their level within the fair value hierarchy:

  Nine Months Ended September 30, 2012
    Carrying Fair Value Gross
  Amount Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Loss
Assets (in millions)
 Long-lived assets held and used:(1)               
  Kelanitissa $ 22 $ - $ - $ 10 $ 12
  Wind projects   16   -   -   -   16
 Long-lived assets held for sale:(1)               
  Wind turbines   45   -   -   25   20
  St. Patrick   33   -   22   -   11
 Equity method investments(2)   205   -   155   -   50
 Goodwill               
  DP&L(3)   2,449   -   -   599   1,850
                
  Nine Months Ended September 30, 2011
    Carrying Fair Value Gross
  Amount Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Loss
Assets (in millions)
 Long-lived assets held and used:(1)               
  Wind turbines and deposits $ 161 $ - $ 45 $ - $ 116
  Kelanitissa   66   -   -   29   37
  Bohemia   14   -   5   -   9
 Discontinued operations and held for sale               
  businesses:               
  Carbon Reduction Projects   49   -   -   11   33 (4)
 Equity method investments:               
  Yangcheng   100   -   -   26   74
 Goodwill:               
  Chigen   17   -   -   -   17

_______________________

(1)        See Note 14―Asset Impairment Expense for further information.

(2)        See Note 16―Other Non-Operating Expense for further information.

(3)        See Note 15Goodwill Impairment for further information.

(4)        The carrying amounts and fair value of the asset groups also include other assets and liabilities; however, impairment expense recognized was limited to the carrying amounts of long-lived assets.

 

The following table summarizes the significant unobservable inputs used in the Level 3 measurement of long-lived assets during the nine months ended September 30, 2012:

    Valuation     
 Fair Value Technique Unobservable Input Range (Weighted Average)
  (in millions)     ($ in millions)
Long-lived assets held and used:        
 Kelanitissa$ 10 Discounted     
     cash flow Annual revenue growth -9% to 4% (-1%)
       Annual pretax operating margin -4% to 16% (-1%)
       Weighted average cost of capital 11.9%
Long-lived assets held for sale:        
 Wind turbines  25 Market     
     Approach Indicative offer prices$12 to 38 (25)
          
Total$ 35      

Financial Instruments not Measured at Fair Value in the Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets

The following table sets forth the carrying amount and fair value of the Company's financial assets and liabilities that are not measured at fair value in the condensed consolidated balance sheets as of September 30, 2012 and December 31, 2011, but for which fair value is disclosed. In addition, the fair value level hierarchy of such assets and liabilities is presented as of September 30, 2012:

   Carrying Fair Value
September 30, 2012Amount  Total Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
 (in millions)
Assets              
 Trade receivables(1)$ 387 $ 304 $ - $ - $ 304
Liabilities              
 Non-recourse debt  15,373   16,000   -   12,156   3,844
 Recourse debt  6,187   6,899   -   6,899   -
                 
December 31, 2011              
                 
Assets              
 Trade receivables(1)$ 432 $ 414         
Liabilities              
 Non-recourse debt  15,535   15,862         
 Recourse debt  6,485   6,640         

(1)        Trade receivables are included in “Current Assets― Accounts Receivable” and “Noncurrent assets Other in the accompanying condensed consolidated balance sheets. These receivables principally relate to amounts due from the independent system operator in Argentina. During the nine months ended September 30, 2012, the significant decline in fair value of these receivables was a result of the increased credit risk in Argentina.