EX-99.2 3 a06-11420_1ex99d2.htm EX-99


















































































































 

Searchable text section of graphics shown above

 



 

 

 

2006 AES Investor Conference Series

AES CORPORATION

 

Scott Cunningham

 

 

Vice President, Investor Relations

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

May 9, 2006

 



 

Safe Harbor Disclosure

 

Certain statements in the following presentation regarding AES’s business operations may constitute “forward looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those related to future earnings, growth and financial and operating performance. Forward-looking statements are not intended to be a guarantee of future results, but instead constitute AES’s current expectations based on reasonable assumptions. Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions. These assumptions include, but are not limited to continued normal or better levels of operating performance and electricity demand at our distribution companies and operational performance at our contract generation businesses consistent with historical levels, as well as achievements of planned productivity improvements and incremental growth from investments at investment levels and rates of return consistent with prior experience. For additional assumptions see the Appendix to this presentation. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and other factors. Important factors that could affect actual results are discussed in AES’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission including but not limited to the risks discussed under Item 1A “Risk Factors” in the Company’s 2005 Annual Report on Form 10-K as well as our other SEC filings. AES undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 

www.aes.com

 



 

Today’s Agenda

 

Opening Comments

Scott Cunningham

 

 

Asia Business Review

 

                  Overview and Asia Business Review

Haresh Jaisinghani

                  Kazakhstan

Dale Perry

                  Q&A Session

All

 

 

Break

 

 

 

North America Business Review

 

                  Overview

David Gee

                  IPALCO

Ann Murtlow

                  North America Generation East

Dan Rothaupt

                  North America Generation West

Mark Woodruff

                  Q&A Session

All

 



 

 

 

AES Asia Business Review

AES CORPORATION

 

 

Haresh Jaisinghani

 

 

 

President, Asia

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

AES Asia Market

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Country

 

Population(MM)
(2006 est.)

 

Per Capita PPP
GDP (USD)
(2005 est.)

 

Gener.
Gross
GW

 

GDP
growth
% p.a.
(2005
est)

 

China

 

1,314

 

$

6,300

 

508

 

9.3

 

India

 

1,095

 

$

3,400

 

124

 

7.6

 

Kazakhstan

 

15

 

$

7,800

 

18

 

9.0

 

Sri Lanka

 

20

 

$

4,300

 

2

 

5.0

 

 

Source: The World Factbook; AES estimates.

 



 

Asia at a Glance

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

10,121MW Total Installed Capacity

 

2,000MW Ekibastuz and 1,000MW OPGC Expansion Potential

 

2 Distribution and 1 Heat Net Businesses in Kazakhstan Serve 0.6MM Customers

 

High Potential for Future Growth Given Strong Economic Growth and Under-Investment in Infrastructure Facilities

 



 

My Priorities

 

Safety
First

------->

                  Improve AES and contractor safety statistics
                  Reporting near misses
                  Recognized as industry leader in safety within region

 

 

 

Operational
Excellence

------->

                  Improve fuel efficiency
                  Reduce unplanned outages
                  Improve root cause analysis

 

 

 

Business
Development

------->

                  Create critical presence in ASEAN, China and India
                  Platform expansion at Kazakhstan & OPGC
                  Create value through greenfielddevelopment and complex acquisitions
                  Execute Vietnam project
                  Alternative Energy, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
                  Selected non-power, such as gas distribution, water & waste treatment

 

 

 

People
Development

------->

                  Identify internal talent pool
                  Implement mentoring and rotational programs

 



 

 

Asia Generation Business Review

AES CORPORATION

Haresh Jaisinghani

 

President, Asia

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

Asia Generation Strategic Overview

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

 

 

AES Asia

 

AES Goals

 

AES 2008 Target

 

Generation Role

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Goals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Revenue Growth

 

 

Above Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Gross Margin Growth

 

$3.5 Billion

 

Below Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Earnings Per Share Growth

 

13-19% per Year

 

Below Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     ROIC Improvement (1)

 

11%

 

Below Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Cash Flow Growth

 

$2.6-2.9 Billion

 

Below Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Subsidiary Distributions (1)

 

 

Stable

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Refinancing Opportunities

 

 

Limited

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Growth Goals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Platform Expansion

 

 

Attractive but Conditional

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Greenfield Investment

 

 

Significant Opportunity

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•     Privatization/M&A

 

 

Focused Opportunity

 

 


(1) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.

 



 

AES History in Asia

 

1992-1995

 

1996-2000

 

2001-2003

 

2004-2006

1992

 

1996

 

2001

 

2005

Entered India

1993
Founded AES Chigen

 

Chigen issued $180 MM Notes due 2006

Won greenfield gas-fired Mt. Stuart

 

Out of management of CESCO


Closed first power project in Sri Lanka:

 

Signed MOU for development of a 1,200MW greenfield coal-fired project in Vietnam

 

 

bid (288MW) in Australia

 

Kelanitissa

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1994

 

1997

 

 

 

 

Closed first power project in China

1995-1997
Closed the existing six other power projects in China, resulting in aggregate of 2,842MW installed capacity

 

Won greenfield bid in Bangladesh (two gas-fired plants totaling 810MW) with award-winning project financing from ADB and World Bank

1998
Acquired 49% stake in OPGC in the first and only privatization in India

 

2003
Chigen issued $175 MM Bonds due 2010 to refinance previous notes due 2006


Sale of Australian and Bangladesh assets

 

2006
Signed MOU for development of a greenfield integrated coal mine and a 1,000MW power plant in India

 

 


1999

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquired 51% in CESCO, a distribution company in India

Acquired Ecogen (2 gas-fired plants totaling 960MW) in privatization in Australia

 

 

 

 

 



 

China Generation Market Characteristics

 

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

•     Big market: 508GW installed capacity

•     High growth: 9% p.a. GDP growth in 2005

                  Country rating: A-

Insights

                  Do not directly translate into robust investment opportunities for foreign investors

 

 

 

                  Generation market dominated by state-owned companies

                  Foreign IPPs own 2% of installed capacity

                  120GW capacity under construction

                  Economic growth expected to slow down to 7.5% p.a. from 2007-2010

Insights

                  Government has successfully used domestic champions, capital, and equipment

                  Size rather than profitability drives local investments

                  Overcapacity in short to medium term

 

 

 

China: Installed Capacity (GW)

 

Ownership Structure:

 

 

 

Share of Generation
Capacity

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 



 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

                  Industry undergoing structural and regulatory changes

 

Insights

 

                  Tightly controlled tariff setting
                  Contract enforcement a challenge

 

 

 

 

 

                  More stringent environmental regulations

                  Government encourages development of energy efficient and clean technologies

 

Insights

 

                  Opportunities in renewable and non -power

 

 

 

 

 

China: 2005
Generation
Fuel Mix

 

[CHART]

 

 

 



 

India Generation Market Characteristics

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

                  Big market: 124GW installed capacity

                  High growth: 7-8% p.a. GDP growth from 2006-2010

                  Negative reserve margin estimated at 12%

 

Insights

 

                  Significant power demand

                  However, has not resulted in significant capacity additions

 

 

 

 

 

                  Public sector champions cannot build all the needed capacities

 

Insights

 

                  Space for private local and foreign players

 



 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

                  Weak credit of utilities and overreaching regulations are legacy hurdles

 

Insights

 

                  Alternatives to regulated PPAs with state-owned utilities slowly emerging as a result of open access promise

 

 

 

 

 

                  World’s 4th largest wind capacity (4,430MW)

 

 

 

 

                  Returns and regulations are reasonable

 

Insights

 

                  Opportunities in renewable & CDM

                  Active government support for CDM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

India: 2005
Generation
Fuel Mix

 

[CHART]

 

 

 



 

AES Portfolio in Asia

 

Coal

 

Oil

 

Gas

 

Hydro

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

China

 

China

 

China

 

China

Yangcheng, Shanxi

 

Hefei

 

Chengdu, Sichuan

 

Cili, Hunan

                  2,100MW

 

                  115MW

 

                  50MW

 

                  26MW

                  25% AES Owned

 

                  70% AES Owned

 

                  35% AES Owned

 

                  51% AES Owned

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jiaozuo, Henan

 

Sri Lanka

 

 

 

 

                  250MW

 

Kelanitissa

 

 

 

 

                  70% AES Owned

 

                  168MW Diesel

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  90% AES Owned

 

 

 

 

Wuhu

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  250MW

 

 

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

                  25% AES Owned

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aixi, Sichuan

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  51MW

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  71% AES Owned

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

India

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPGC

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  420MW Coal

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  49% AES Owned

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

Asia Generation Revenues

 

Consolidated Revenue ($145 MM)

 

[CHART]

 

 

Consolidated Revenue by Customer ($145 MM)

 

[CHART]

 

 

Combined Revenue (1) ($720 MM)

 

[CHART]

 


(1) Combined revenue includes consolidated revenues and 100% of revenues of equity-owned affiliates.

 

For the year ended December 31, 2005

 



 

Asia Generation Portfolio Contracted with Full or Partial Fuel Cost Pass Through

 

 

Contract Generation Portfolio

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

India

 

                  Mine mouth plant with long-term linkage granted

 

                  Fuel cost passed through under PPA

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

Sri Lanka

 

                  Fuel supply agreement guaranteed by government

 

                  Fuel cost passed through under PPA

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

China

 

                  Fuel cost pass-through mechanism under PPA subject to government and regulatory approval in practice

 



 

Asia Generation KPIs

 

 

 

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

 

 

 

 

 

                  Lost time accident rate (LTAs)

Safety Excellence

 

                  Days and man-hours since last LTA

 

 

                  Near miss reporting

 

 

 

 

 

                  SOX emissions

Environmental Excellence

 

                  NOX emissions

 

 

                  Opacity

 

 

 

 

 

                  Net plant heat rate

 

 

                  Equivalent availability factor (EAF)

Operational Excellence

 

                  Equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR)

 

 

                  Non-fuel O&M costs

 



 

Asia Generation Safety Performance

 

Lost Time Accidents

 

Safety Highlights

 

 

                  All but one plant have more than a year without an LTA

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

                  Cili: 4,271 days without an LTA

 

 

                  Chengdu: 3,299 days without an LTA

 

 

                  Jiaozuo: 545 days without an LTA

 

 

                  OPGC: over 6.5 MM man-hours without an LTA

 



 

Asia Generation Heat Rate Performance

 

OPGC & Jiaozuo

 

Kelanitissa

Heat Rate (Btu/kWh)

 

Heat Rate (Btu/kWh)

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 



 

Asia Generation KPI Focus

 

 

 

Jiaozuo

OPGC

 

Equivalent Availability Factor

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 



 

Asia Generation Portfolio Financing

 

China

 

India

 

Sri Lanka

 

 

 

 

 

                  $30 MM Renminbi& US Dollar non-recourse loans outstanding at project level

                  Final maturity by 2009

 

                  $175 MM US Dollar bonds due 2010 at Chigen holding

 

                  $17 MM Rupee non-recourse project loans outstanding

 

                  Final maturity by 2012

 

                  $65 MM Dollar based non-recourse project loans outstanding from multilateral & commercial banks

 

                  Final Maturity by 2013

 

Data as of December 31, 2005

 



 

Chigen Bond Financing

 

 

Outstanding

 

US$175 MM

 

Interest rate

 

8.25% p.a.

 

Maturity profile

 

Due June 2010, bullet payment

 

Credit rating

 

S&P: B+/Stable; Moody’s: B1

 

 

 

 

Chigen Bond Price Movement

 

[CHART]

 



 

Asia Generation Financial Overview

 

(US$ Million)

 

 

 

 

2003

 

2004

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

$

118

 

$

120

 

$

145

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin

 

$

29

 

$

25

 

$

33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Before Tax & Minority Interest

 

$

50

 

$

31

 

$

59

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Distributions to AES Corporation

 

$

123

 

$

32

 

$

37

 

 

Note: Information is presented on an AES basis and is unaudited. Certain intercompany transactions may not be eliminated.

 



 

Growth Strategies

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

•     Acquisition of restructuring provincial and local power companies

 

•     Integrated coal mine and power plant

China

•     Non-power, such as gas distribution, water & waste treatment

 

•     Renewable, clean coal technology and CDM

 

•     Seek joint venture partnerships

 

 

 

•     OPGC platform expansion

India

•     Greenfield integrated coal mine and power plant

 

•     Renewable and CDM

 

•     Distribution privatization

 

 

 

•     Greenfield negotiated or limited competitive opportunities

ASEAN

•     Limited privatization opportunities

 

•     Partner with local minority players and multilaterals

 

•     CDM

 



 

Reserve Margin for China, India and ASEAN Countries

 

[CHART]

 

Source: EIA and AES estimates

Bars not drawn to scale: China, India and Sri Lanka

 



 

ASEAN Generation Market Characteristics

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

Philippines

 

Indonesia

 

Thailand

 

Vietnam

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sovereign rating

 

BB-

 

B+

 

BBB

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GDP growth ‘05

 

4.5%

 

5.5%

 

4.5%

 

8.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity demand growth

 

9%

 

6-7%

 

6%

 

15%

Opportunities

 

Immediate acquisitions / privatization (medium term for new capacities)

 

Urgent need for new capacities

 

Urgent need for new capacities

 

Urgent need for new capacities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Competition

 

Limited Western players; Japanese, Pan Asian and in-country players

 

 

 

New PPAs

 

Not possible given
current law

 

Available and modeled on earlier successful project financed deals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Procurement process

 

Negotiated / limited competition

 

Negotiated / limited competition

 

Structured and well managed RFP

 

Negotiated / limited competition

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Political climate

 

Active democracy with uncertainties overhang

 

Newly founded democracy with fading reminiscence of political / business nexus

 

Generally stable. However, recently Prime Minister ousted on conflict-of-interests

 

Communist government provides stable environment

 

Data from EIA

 



 

Greenfield: Mong Duong, Vietnam

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

1,200MW BOT greenfieldcoal-fired negotiated opportunity

 

Mong Duong Project, Vietnam

 

 

 

                  MOU signed in December 2005

 

 

 

 

 

                  90% joint venture with Vinacomin, the state-owned coal monopoly

 

 

 

 

 

                  Non-recourse project finance from multilateral banks based on well-established precedence

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

 

                  US Dollar long-term PPA and FSA backed by government guarantee

 

 

 

 

 

                  Estimated project cost $1.2 to $1.4 billion

 

 

 

 

 

                  Target operation by 2010

 

 

 



 

Platform Expansion : OPGC, India

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

Proposed OPGC Expansion

                  500 to 1,000MW coal-fired OPGC expansion

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  Shared facilities built

 

 

 

 

 

                  No new AES equity investment

 

 

 

 

 

                  Financed by trapped cash and local (Rupee) non-recourse loans

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

 

                  Mine mouth resulting in competitive electricity price

 

 

 

 

 

                  Key issue under discussion with government – power sale arrangement

 

 

 

 

 

                  Timing uncertain

 

 

 



 

 

 

AES Kazakhstan Business Review

AES CORPORATION

 

 

 

 

Dale Perry

 

 

Vice President

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

May 9, 2006

 



 

AES Kazakhstan Strategic Overview

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

AES Goals

 

AES 2008 Target

 

AES Kazakhstan Role

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Goals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  Revenue Growth

 

 

Above Average

 

 

 

 

 

                  Gross Margin Growth

 

$3.5 Billion

 

Above Average

 

 

 

 

 

                  Earnings Per Share Growth

 

13-19% per Year

 

Above Average

 

 

 

 

 

                  ROIC Improvement(1)

 

11%

 

Above Average

 

 

 

 

 

                  Cash Flow Growth

 

$2.6-2.9 Billion

 

Above Average

 

 

 

 

 

                  Subsidiary Distributions(1)

 

 

Increasing

 

 

 

 

 

                  Restructuring Opportunities

 

 

Significant

 

 

 

 

 

Growth Goals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  Platform Expansion

 

 

Significant Opportunities

 

 

 

 

 

                  Greenfield Investment

 

 

Focused Opportunities

 

 

 

 

 

                  Privatization/M&A

 

 

Focused Opportunities

 


(1) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.

 



 

Kazakhstan Highlights

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Kazakhstan at a Glance

 

 

 

Currency

 

Kazakhstan Tenge (KZT)

Exchange Rate (01/10/2006)

 

1 (KZT) = 0.007472 (USD)

Per Capita GDP (2004 est.)

 

US $7,800

Inflation Rate (2004 est.)

 

6.9%

Economic Drivers

 

major deposits of petroleum, natural gas, coal, iron ore, manganese, chrome ore, nickel, cobalt, copper, molybdenum, lead, zinc, bauxite, gold, uranium

Capital

 

Astana

Largest City

 

Almaty

Population (July 2005 est.)

 

15,185,844

 



 

Kazakhstan Electricity Demand Growth

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

[CHART]

 

Recent correlation between electricity demand and GDP growth expected to continue

 

Source: Company information

 



 

Kazakhstan Electricity Market Characteristics

 

Generation

 

Transmission

 

Distribution

 

Commercial Base

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18,200MW installed capacity (approximate)
                  67% Coal
•     11% Other thermal
                  22% Hydroelectric

50% private sector ownership (approximate)

 

Three regional transmission systems

•     government owned

                  23,000 km of 220 KV – 500KV lines

                  Transmission dispatch

                  Manages system ancillary services

 

12 major distribution & regulated supply companies, predominantly government owned

Annual tariff review

Tariff methodology is cost plus profit

 

Bi-lateral contracts between generators/traders and consumers/traders

Government entities are required to purchase directly from generators (i.e. no traders)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


AES is largest private sector generator

 

9 -500KV
interconnections to the Russian grid

 

Moving away from Electricity Supply Organization (ESO) price regulation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zonal transmission tariff ranges from $3.15 -$6.50/MWH

 

ESO contracts typically range from hourly to quarterly

 

 

 



 

Overview of AES Kazakhstan Power Assets

 

[GRAPHIC]

 


(1)          Management only with no revenues

Note: Capacities are gross

 



 

Kazakhstan Generation Market Profile

 

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

2005 Generation (MWh) Market Share (%)(1)

 

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

 

 

 

Total Installed Capacity = 18,200MW

 

 

 

 


(1) Excluding Western Kazakhstan 2005 generation figures

 



 

Kazakhstan Electricity Market History

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

1995-1997

 

1998-2000

 

2001-2005

 

2006 and future

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity sector functions as a single vertically integrated system operated by the Ministry of Energy

Sector is bankrupted by barter and non- transparent transactions

Rapid un-bundling of Generation

Creation of national grid company , Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company (KEGOC)

Stalled attempt to privatize distribution

 

Creation of a regulatory body to form electricity market and ensure its effective functioning

Cash collection and barter transaction issues are significant business issues

Kazakhstan and Russia are electrically disconnected due to high non-payment issues from Kazakhstan

Bi-lateral contract relationships develop

Lack of long term regulatory certainty

 

Creation of the Wholesale Electricity Power Pool

New Electricity Law completely un-bundles electricity sector, creating retail supply companies split from distribution (wires) businesses

Sector sees regulatory interaction with both Anti-monopoly Committee (natural monopolies) and Competition Committee (market dominance activities)

Non-payment issues decrease as demand increases, in-line with country’s economic recovery

Kazakhstan and Russia are re- connected

No long term contracts exist in market

 

Reserve margins drop, with some load shedding seen in peak winter season

Convoluted mix of free market and regulated market begins to clear up

Implementation of zonal transmission tariff methodology

Continued integration with adjacent energy systems of Central Asia, Russia and China

 



 

Kazakhstan Electricity Market Operation Model

 

Bi-lateral trades monthly,
yearly, multiyear

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transmission & Dispatch,
System Operator

 

C

 

 

 

U

Balanced schedules
submitted to KEGOC

 

Large Industrials

S

 

 

 

T

Hot, cold reserve pool are
nominated day ahead into
KEGOC

Wholesale
Energy
Market

REC’s and Genco’s

O

 

 

 

M

Regulation agreement is
in place for all generators

 

Exports and Traders

E

 

 

 

R

Import/export approved by
KEGOC

Market Operator

 

S

 



 

Kazakhstan Power Prices are Some of The Lowest in The World

 

Current Kazakh wholesale power prices are among the lowest in the world

 

[CHART]

 

Source: IEA US DOE, national sources and ECON aggregate

 



 

Tight Russian Reserve Margins Expected by 2009

 

 

 

European

 

North

 

Ekibastutz Target Markets

 

 

 

 

 

Russia

 

Caucasus

 

Ural

 

Siberia

 

Russia

 

Equilibrium energy price (US$/MWh)

 

$

16

 

$

16

 

$

13

 

$

8

 

$

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Required capacity payment (US$/kW*year)

 

80

 

103

 

97

 

117

 

98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total wholesale price (US$/MWh)

 

27

 

29

 

26

 

23

 

29

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cost of new entry (US$/MWh)

 

27

 

29

 

26

 

24

 

29

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wholesale price discount to cost of new entry (%)

 

0

%

0

%

0

%

5

%

0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Peak demand (GW)

 

71

 

9

 

32

 

31

 

150

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Available capacity (GW)

 

89

 

10

 

38

 

35

 

181

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Available peak capacity (GW)

 

80

 

9

 

35

 

32

 

154

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reserve margin (%)

 

11

%

(1

)%

7

%

1

%

3

%

 

Source: Renaissance Capital Report: “Form and Substance”August 2005

 



 

Potential AES Ekibastuz Price and Demand Scenario Offers Attractive Growth Prospects

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

AES Ekibastuz Repowering Investment and Potential Timeline at Assumed Power Prices

 

[CHART]

 



 

AES Kazakhstan Financial Overview

 

($ Millions)

 

 

 

2003

 

2004

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

$

103

 

$

137

 

$

158

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin

 

$

25

 

$

36

 

$

40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Before Tax & Minority Interest

 

$

21

 

$

30

 

$

33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Distributions to AES Corporation

 

$

29

 

$

8

 

$

18

 

 

Note: Information is presented on an AES basis and is unaudited. Certain intercompany transactions may not be eliminated.

 



 

KPI Implementation in Kazakhstan

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Current

 

Pricing Strategy and

 

Long-Term

 

 

Situation

 

Demand Growth Phase

 

Operating Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lost time accidents (LTAs)

 

Safety

 

 

Excellence

Near-miss reporting

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pricing strategy supports repowering investments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

Long-term domestic and export PPAs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low cost fuel strategy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unit on-stream optimization

 

 

 

Operating

 

 

 

 

 

 

Costs

 

 

Retrofit project management

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operational excellence KPIs

 

 

 

Asset mix, fuel cost and pricing strategies drive unique operating model.

 



 

Safety is a Top Priority at AES Kazakhstan

 

LTA

 

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

[CHART]

 

 

 

2005 Safety Activity

 

 

 

Formed Safety Steering Committees

 

Commenced ISO certification

Commenced Risk Assessment Training

 

Continued public safety educational campaign

Launched NEBOSH Training

 

 

 



 

Growth Opportunities

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

                  1,800MW at low incremental capital cost

Ekibastuz Rehabilitation

 

                  Economics well below greenfield investment

 

 

                  Low cost mine-mouth coal source

 

 

 

Maikuben Mine Expansion

 

                  Additional low-cost capacity available
                  Leverage remaining 15 year concession term

 

 

 

Power Exports

 

                  Leverage grid linkage with former Soviet Union
                  Potential swaps with other parties

 

In addition to local platform expansion, we see significant opportunities in adjacent
countries leveraging our successful business model in Kazakhstan.

 



 

2006 AES Investor Conference Series

 

AES CORPORATION

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

May 9, 2006

 

 



 

 

AES North America Business Review

AES CORPORATION

David Gee

 

President of North America

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

May 9, 2006

 



 

North America Business History

 

1986-1992

 

1998-2001

 

2000-2002

 

2005+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Early PURPA

 

Acquisitions

 

Greenfield Gas

 

Safety

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beaver Valley

 

Southland

 

Merida

 

Operations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deepwater

 

Eastern

 

Ironwood

 

People

 

 

 

Energy

 

 

 

 

 

Placerita

 

 

 

Red Oak

 

Growth

 

 

 

IPL

 

 

 

 

 

Thames

 

 

 

Late PURPA

 

 

 

 

 

US Biomass

 

Greenfield

 

 

 

Shady Point

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Warrior Run

 

 

 

Hawaii

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Puerto Rico

 

 

 

 



 

North America Strategic Overview

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

AES Goals

 

AES 2008 Target

 

North America Role

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Goals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Revenue Growth

 

 

Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Gross Margin Growth

 

$3.5 Billion

 

Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Earnings per Share Growth

 

13-19% per Year

 

Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       ROIC Improvement (1)

 

11%

 

Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Cash Flow Growth

 

$2.6-2.9 Billion

 

Strong, Stable

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Subsidiary Distributions (1)

 

 

Strong, Stable

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Restructuring Opportunities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Growth Goals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Platform Expansion

 

 

Multiple Opportunities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Greenfield Investment

 

 

Focused

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Privatization/M&A

 

 

Limited

 

 


(1) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.

 



 

North America Overview

 

2005 North America

2005 North America

as % of AES

Revenues by Segment

 

 

[CHART]

[CHART]

 


(1) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.

 



 

North America’s Forward Capacity Profile

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

[CHART]

 

Note: Assumes Shady Point PPA is extended in 2008. Competitive Supply hedged amounts as of March 31, 2006.

 



 

North America Priorities

 

Safety
First

------->

                  Leading, lagging indicators and programs
                  Daily #1 priority

 

 

 

Operational
Excellence

------->

                  Plant-specific performance indicators
                  North America Operating Network
                  Sourcing
                  Fuel flexibility
                  Overall: commercial availability, NFOM/kw

 

 

 

People
Development

------->

                  Attract, develop, excite, retain
                  Build bench

 

 

 

Targeted
Growth

------->

                  Platform expansion opportunities
                  Traditional development with angles
                  Insight-driven step-outs
                  Coal

 



 

 

IPALCO Business Review

AES CORPORATION

Ann Murtlow

 

President and CEO, IPALCO and IPL

 

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

May 9, 2006

 



 

IPALCO Strategic Overview

 

 

 

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

AES Goals

 

AES 2008 Target

 

IPALCO Role

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Goals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Revenue Growth

 

 

Below Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Gross Margin Growth

 

$3.5 Billion

 

Below Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Earnings per Share Growth

 

13-19% per Year

 

Below Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       ROIC Improvement (1)

 

11%

 

Below Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Cash Flow Growth

 

$2.6-2.9 Billion

 

Below Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Subsidiary Distributions (1)

 

 

Significant and Stable

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Restructuring Opportunities

 

 

Limited

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Growth Goals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

•  Platform Expansion

 

 

Limited

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Greenfield Investment

 

 

N/A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       Privatization/M&A

 

 

Potential

 

 


(1) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.

 



 

IPALCO History

 

1880-1950

 

1951-1975

 

1976-2000

 

2001-2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1881 – Indianapolis Brush Electric Light & Power Co. (IBELP) is first Indianapolis electric utility

 

1967 – Petersburg plant begins operations & IPL forms Kentucky- Indiana Power Pool

 

1977 – IPL installs Indiana’s first full- scale FGD for SO2 removal

 

2001 – AES acquires IPALCO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1931 – First 132kV loop around city completed & Harding Street plant begins commercial operations

 

1970 – IPL requests first rate increase in its 44 year history

 

1983 – IPALCO Enterprises (IPALCO) established for non-utility business growth

 

2001– IPL submits application with 8 other utilities to join Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1940 – IPL IPO is first large US investor owned utility to list on the New York Stock Exchange

1949 – Eagle Valley plant begins commercial operations

 

 

 

1994 – IPL files a case in chief with Indiana Utilities’ Regulatory Commission (IURC) for revenue requirements and corresponding tariffs based on fair market value case (concluded in 1995)

 

2002 – IPL files petition with IURC for tracker recovery of NOx environmental controls

2004 – IPL files petition with IURC for Multi-pollutant Plan
addressing SO2 and mercury removal

 

 



 

IPALCO Service Area and Facilities

 

Petersburg

 

                  1,722MW Coal

 

                  8MW Oil

 

 

 

Harding Street & Georgetown

 

•     653MW Coal

 

                  158MW Oil

 

                  283MW Gas

[GRAPHIC]

                  202MW Oil & Gas

 

 

 

Eagle Valley

 

                  263MW Coal

 

                  81MW Oil

 

 

 

Indianapolis Operations

 

                  Customer Service Center (CSC)

 

                  528m2 service territory

                  Morris Street

 

                  3,222 transmission line miles

                  Arlington

 

                  75 high voltage & 69 distribution substations

 

 

                  465,000 customers

 



 

IPALCO Electricity Demand Growth

 

[CHART]

 

IPL’s service territory energy demand and national GDP growth rates maintain a basic correlation.

 

Source: IPL

 



 

IPALCO Fuel Sourcing Strategy

 

 

 

Coal

 

Natural Gas

Sourced From

 

Illinois Basin (mainly Indiana)

 

USA

 

 

 

 

 

Generation

 

99%

 

1%

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

Rail; Truck

 

Texas Gas Transmission

Method

 

 

 

(TGT) and Panhandle

 

 

 

 

Eastern Pipelines (PEPL)

 

 

 

 

 

Distance

 

< 100 miles

 

Delivered by local

 

 

 

 

distribution company (LDC)

 

 

 

 

 

Key Suppliers

 

Black Beauty Coal Company

 

Proliance Energy

 

 

(Peabody), Triad Mining

 

 

 

 

(James River Coal), Solar

 

 

 

 

Sources, and Sunrise Coal,

 

 

 

 

LLC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fuel Flexibility

 

High

 

Not applicable

(sulfur, BTU)

 

> 10,900 BTU/lb

 

 

 

 

< 10% Ash

 

 

 

 

< 16% Moisture

 

 

 

 

< 6 lbs/MMBTu SO2

 

 

 

Note: Fuel Flexibility represents company-wide maximums or minimums.

 



 

IPALCO Customer Base

 

Billed Consumption (GWh)
2005

 

[CHART]

 

Revenues
2005

 

[CHART]

 

Electricity Sales Trend (GWh)

 

[CHART]

 

Note: Residential includes public lighting; Wholesale includes Rural Electric Membership Corporation.

 



 

Indiana Regulatory Framework

 

 

 

 

 

Fuel Adjustment

Regulatory Bodies

 

Rate Setting

 

Clause

 

 

 

 

 

Retail tariffs are determined at the state level

                  IURC – Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission

                  OUCC – Office of Utility Consumer Counselor

 

Rates are determined through a formal public hearing process and based on the record of the proceedings

                  Determine fair rates & charges

                  Determine fair rate of return on fair value of usable assets plus reasonable operating expenses

 

Fuel costs and fuel portion of power purchases are passed through

                  Quarterly hearings
                  Expense and earnings tests

 

 

 

 

 

Other Players

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Citizens

IPL

 

 

 

 

Action

Industrial

 

 

 

 

Coalition

Group

 

IPL’s good

 

Low, competitive rates

 

 

 

regulatory

 

High reliability and superior service

 

 

 

relationships are

 

Open communications

Governor’s

Indiana

 

 

 

 

Office

Legislature

 

supported by

 

Active community involvement

 



 

The Midwest Independent System Operator

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

MISO Day 1

 

MISO Day 2

 

Recovery Issues

 

 

 

 

 

2/1/2002 – MISO becomes operational and addresses:

                  Security Coordination

                  Long-term Regional Planning

                  Transmission Scheduling and Tariff Administration

                  Market Monitoring & Administration

 

4/1/2005 – Day Ahead, Real Time and Financial Transmission Rights (FTR) energy markets commence and all generation resources and customer demand are offered/bid into markets

 

                  IPL must separate retail and wholesale transactions

                  Fuel costs for jurisdictional retail customers pass through via Fuel Adjustment Clause

                  Administration fees, uplift costs & internal compliance costs become deferred regulatory assets

 

 

 

 

9 industry sectors w/voting rights

 

Participation costs include:

 

                  IPL a Transmission Owner (TO)

 

                  Market administration & uplift

 

 

 

 

                  Internal costs of compliance

 

 

MISO Members

 

                  Locational marginal price (LMP) load/generation differentials

 

 

                  15 states

 

 

 

                  200 market participants

                  28 utilities

                  250 asset owners

                  3 North America electric reliability regions

 


IPL is actively
monitoring &
lobbying re:

 

 

                  Control Area Consolidation

                  Resource Adequacy Planning

                  Cost Sharing Methodologies

 



 

IPALCO Utility and Generation KPIs

 

 

 

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

 

 

 

Safety Excellence

 

                  OSHA recordable incident rate

                  Lost time accidents (LTAs)

 

 

 

Operational Excellence

 

                  Equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR)

                  Short term opacity performance

 

 

 

Reliability

 

                  System interruption duration (SAIDI)

                  System interruption frequency (SAIFI)

 

 

 

Customer Service Excellence

 

                  Customer satisfaction

                  Average speed of answer (ASA)

 



 

Implementing KPIs at IPL

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

IPL targets simultaneous operating excellence in seven key areas versus other US electric utility performance through its “Be the Best” (BTB) philosophy .

 



 

IPALCO Safety Performance Scorecard

 

OSHA Recordable Incident Rate

 

59% Improvement

 

[CHART]

 

LTA Rate

 

79% Improvement

 

[CHART]

 

IPL’s top priority is safety in the workplace as demonstrated by the significant safety performance improvements over the last three years.

 



 

IPALCO Generation Performance Scorecard

 

EFOR

 

63% Improvement

 

[CHART]

 

Short Term Opacity Exceedances

 

83% Improvement

 

[CHART]

 

Note: 2002 opacity exceedance figure includes soot blowing exceedances.

 

IPL’s plants have successfully improved their operations as
illustrated by the dramatic EFOR and opacity nonconformance reductions.

 



 

IPALCO Service Reliability vs. Indiana Peers

 

SAIFI

 

[CHART]

 

SAIDI

 

[CHART]

 

Source: IURC 2005 Reliability Report

 

IPL has consistently outperformed the average of Indiana peer utilities.

 



 

IPALCO Customer Service Performance Scorecard

 

Customer Satisfaction

 

5% Improvement

 

[CHART]

 

Average Speed of Answer

 

Consistent Performance

 

[CHART]

 

IPL offers the most competitive retail residential rates in Indiana and in the top 20 U.S. investor owned utilities (KB Parrish, 2005)
IPL ranks 2
nd out of 15 Midwestern utilities in “price and value” perception as part of a customer satisfaction survey (JD Power & Associates, 2005)

 



 

IPALCO Environmental Investments

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Projected Capital Spending Through 2008 ($ Millions)

 

 

 

2005

 

2006E

 

2007E

 

2008E

 

Total
(2006-
2008E)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multi-Pollutant Plan

 

$

27

 

$

115

 

$

48

 

$

8

 

$

171

 

NOx SIP Call

 

$

28

 

$

0

 

$

0

 

$

0

 

$

0

 

Total Environmental Capex

 

$

56

 

$

115

 

$

48

 

$

8

 

$

171

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maintenance & Other Capex

 

$

56

 

$

98

 

$

72

 

$

132

 

$

302

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Capex

 

$

112

 

$

213

 

$

120

 

$

140

 

$

473

 

 

IPL’s near term growth will come in part from environmental control capital expenditures which qualify for independent tracker recovery.

 



 

IPALCO Capital Structure Objectives

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Capital Structure
Elements

 

Target

 

 

 

Debt to Capital Ratio

 

50 to 55%

 

 

 

Credit Rating Objectives (1)

 

Investment Grade

 

 

 

S&P/Fitch

 

BBB-

 

 

 

 

Moody’s

 

Baa3

 

 

 

 

Interest Coverage Ratio (1)

 

> 2.5 times

 

 

 

Funds from Operations to Total Debt (1)

 

12 to 20%

 

 

 

Fixed to Floating Rate (1)

 

85 to 90% fixed rate

 

 

 

Average Maturity

 

9.4 years

 


(1) Represents IPALCO consolidated debt.

 



 

IPALCO Amortization Schedule and Interest Rate Breakdown

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Amortization Schedule

 

[CHART]

 

Interest Rate Breakdown of Consolidated Co. December 31, 2005

 

[CHART]

 



 

IPALCO Credit Rating Trends

 

[CHART]

 

Fitch upgraded IPALCO in October 2005 citing, among other factors, “low business risk associated with IPL’s utility operations”, “ring-fencing mechanisms” & “AES credit profile improvement”.

 



 

IPALCO Financial Overview

 

($ Million)

 

 

 

2002

 

2003

 

2004

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

$

823

 

$

832

 

$

884

 

$

951

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin

 

$

632

 

$

282

 

$

304

 

$

305

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Before Tax & Minority Interest

 

$

208

 

$

175

 

$

194

 

$

189

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Distributions to AES Corporation

 

$

271

 

$

176

 

$

177

 

$

208

 

 

Note: Information presented on an AES basis. Certain intercompany transactions may not be eliminated. Distributions to AES Corporation include common stock dividends and cash paid for income taxes.

 



 

IPALCO Strategic Issues

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Strategic Issues

 

Long Term Fuel Supply

 

                  Achieve more flexible fuel mix and supplier diversity

                  Continued fuel cost recovery through Fuel Adjustment Clause

                  Value and treatment of emission credits related to coal sulfur content

 

Strategic Supply Plan

 

                  Maintenance and outage planning and scheduling

                  Timing and magnitude of environmental capital expenditures

                  Potential retirement of assets and timing thereof

                  New capacity additions

                  Regulatory planning and implementation

 



 

 

North America East Business Review

AES CORPORATION

Dan Rothaupt

 

Vice President, North America East

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

May 9, 2006

 



 

North America East Business Portfolio

 

Contract Generation

 

Competitive Supply

 

 

 

 

100%

100%

 

100%

 

 

 

 

Beaver Valley
Pennsylvania

Thames
Connecticut

 

AES Eastern Energy
New York

 

 

 

 

Pulverized Coal
(125MW)
1985

CFB Coal
(208MW)
1990

 

Pulverized Coal
(1,268MW)
1999

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

North America East Business Portfolio

 

Contract Generation

 

100%

67%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

Warrior Run
Maryland

Hemphill
New Hampshire

Ironwood
Pennsylvania

Red Oak
 New Jersey

Puerto Rico

 

 

 

 

 

CFB Coal
(205MW)
2000

Biomass
(16MW)
2001

CCGT
(710MW)
2001

CCGT
(832MW)
2002

CFB Coal
(454MW)
2002

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

North America East Revenue Model

 

Revenue by Customer Type (2005)

 

[CHART]

 

2005 Revenues

                  88% contracted or hedged

                  12% unhedged (spot sales)

 



 

North America East Revenue Model

 

Contract Generation

 

[CHART]

 

Competitive Supply

 

Top 10 Eastern Energy Counterparties:

 

Credit Suisse First Boston
J. Aron
Constellation
Detroit Edison

JP Morgan
Morgan Stanley
Erie County

Kaleida Health
Merrill Lynch
Coral

 



 

North America East Contract Maturity Profile

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Gross MW Contracted or Hedged

 

[CHART]

 


(1) Competitive Supply hedge amounts as of March 31, 2006.

 



 

North America East Fuel Sourcing Strategy

 

 

 

Eastern Energy Coal

 

Other North America
East Coal

 

Natural Gas

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sourced From

 

Northern Appalachian (Pennsylvania, West Virginia)

 

Northern Appalachian (Maryland)

 

Williams (tolling agreement)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation Method

 

Rail (CSX and Norfolk Southern)

 

Barge/Truck Rail/Barge Truck

 

Pipeline

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key Suppliers

 

Foundation Consol Peabody

 

Foundation Americoal Rosebud ICG

 

Williams

 



 

North America East Generation KPIs

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Provide Clean, Reliable, Affordable Energy

 

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

 

Safety Excellence

                  Leading indicators

        Identifying and reporting near misses

        Safety walks

                  Lagging Indicators

        OSHA metrics (recordables, Lost Work Day Case, DART rate)

 

 

Environmental Excellence

                  Emissions rate

                  % SO2 removal

 

 

Operational Excellence

                  Reliability

        Financial availability factor (FAF)

        Equivalent forced outage factor (EFOR)

                  Low cost

        Non-Fuel O&M ($/KW-yr)

                  Efficiency

        Heat rate (BTU/KWh)

 



 

North America East Safety Performance

 

OSHA Recordable Incident Rate

 

[CHART]

 

Recordable incident rate is improving as a result of:

                  Implementation of proactive safety activities

                  Near miss identification

                  Safety walks

                  Additional awareness and emphasis put on safety from all levels of the company through activities such as the Safety Day

                  Ongoing safety audits

 

Source: EEI

 



 

North America East Emissions Performance

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Eastern Energy’s Emissions Rate

(lbs/mmbtu)

 

[CHART]

 

Environmental emission rate improvements include:

                  Past Improvements

                  1999: SCR installed at Somerset

                  2001: SCR installed on one unit at Cayuga

                  Ongoing scrubber improvements at Somerset and Cayuga

                  NOX reduction combustion improvements at Westover

 

                  Planned Improvements

                  2006: Multi-pollutant control project at Greenidge

                  Multi-pollutant control project at Westover being evaluated

 



 

North America East Financial Availability

 

Financial Availability Factor

 

[CHART]

 

                  Financial availability factor (FAF) is stable

                  Five plants had FAF greater than 97% in 2005

                  Ongoing FAF improvement efforts include:

                  Attacking identified reliability issues

                  Formation of knowledge based task forces

                  Increased awareness through reliability risk assessments

                  Application of best practices standards

 


(1) Excludes the utility line outage at Thames

 



 

North America East Operations Cost

 

Non-Fuel O&M Cost

$/kw-yr in 2002 dollars

 

[CHART]

 

                  Recent increase due to major outages in conjunction with operational reliability activity spending

                  Global Sourcing efforts being expanded further

                  Other cost initiatives include:

                  Heat rate awareness

                  Ash management

                  Coal and limestone sourcing

 


(1) Excludes the utility line outage at Thames

 



 

Red Oak – Operational Improvement

 

                  Applied problem solving tools to plant trips and aborted starts

                  Root cause analysis

                  Logic reviews

                  Measured start reliability and equivalent start ratio to focus team efforts

                  Improved preventative / predictive maintenance practices through Reliability Centered Maintenance techniques

                  Fine-tuned engines through increased process knowledge & experience

                  Strengthened technical and business skills of plant personnel through training and Users Groups

 

Financial Availability

 

[CHART]

 



 

Warrior Run Operational Improvement

 

                  Adopted root cause analysis

                  Applied corrective and preventative practices

                  Expanded outage scope to address reliability risks

                  Conducted reliability risk audits

                  Implemented activities that remedied the risks

                  Conducted situational “what if” training and drills

 

Financial Availability

 

[CHART]

 

Added scheduled outage time to repair generator issue

 

Equivalent Forced Outage Rate (EFOR)

 

[CHART]

 



 

Optimizing Eastern Energy

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Dispatch decisions

Coal transportation

Outage coordination

 

 

 

 

Scrubbing capability

Allowance purchase and sales

Hedging term (credit & credit quality)

Control technology capex

 

 

 

Coal quality and costs

Full allowance cost accounting

Fuel flexibility capability

 



 

Optimizing Eastern Energy

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

AES Eastern Energy

 



 

Limited Merchant Exposure Hedged With Credit-Worthy Customers

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

AES Eastern Energy Contracting Strategy

 

Hedge Metrics (1)

 

[CHART]

 

Hedge % by Counterparty Credit (2006) (1)

 

[CHART]

 


(1) As of March 31, 2006.

 



 

Emission Allowance Strategy: Selling to our Hedges

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Early installation of environmental controls

 

High SOX removal efficiency at Somerset and Cayuga

 

Continuing environmental investments

 

Our long position has allowed us to sell inventory in excess of our forward sales opportunistically

 

                  Policy of selling allowances above our forward energy sales or “selling to the hedge”

 

                  Active management of our allowance position based on market prices for energy, fuel and allowances

 

                  Eastern Energy emission allowance sales

 

                  2005: $41 MM

 

                  1Q06: $37 MM

 

                  Active management of emission controls in response to real time allowance markets

 



 

Eastern Energy Business Sensitivities

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Simplified Wholesale Gross Margin Sensitivities (1) (2Q-4Q 2006)

 

Natural Gas Sensitivity:

 

                  $7 MM change in gross margin per $1 mmbtu change in price of natural gas

 

Coal Sensitivity:

 

                  $1 MM change in gross margin per $0.10/mmbtu change in price of coal

 

SO2 Sensitivity:

 

                  $2 MM change in gross margin per $100/ton change in SO2 allowance price

 

Weather Sensitivity:

 

                  $2 MM change in gross margin per 0.25 mmbtu/MWh change in Market Implied Heat Rate

 


(1) Sensitivities reflect impact on unhedged gross margin as of March 31, 2006.

 



 

North America East Strategy Initiatives

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Strategic Issues

 

Continued Air Emission Control Spending

 

                  Greenidge retrofit; evaluating Westover retrofit

                  Consider longer-term hedging and contracting strategies

                  Maximize value of emission credits

 

Fuel Flexibility

 

                  Consider strategic alternatives for long-term supply

                  Test burns underway

                  Investments underway

 

Strategic Opportunities

 

Strong Demand in Puerto Rico

 

                  Platform expansion opportunities

 

New York Growth

 

                  Platform expansion opportunities

 



 

North America East Growth Opportunities

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Platform Expansion

 

                  Puerto Rico II: 500MW coal-fired plant

                  Potential brownfield projects in NY

                  Red Oak II peaker

 

Greenfield

 

                  Participate in selective opportunities

                  PJM, Florida and Ontario

 

Acquisitions

 

                  Potential acquisition of solid fuel generation

                  Opportunity to leverage AES capabilities in life extension and environmental retrofit

 

Adjacent Markets

 

                  Early stage of evaluation

                  Waste coal opportunities

                  Coal gasification

                  Leverage experience with diverse technologies including CFB

 



 

North America Competitive Supply Financial Overview

 

(US$ Million)

 

 

 

2003

 

2004

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

$

459

 

$

447

 

$

544

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin

 

$

110

 

$

85

 

$

145

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Before Tax & Minority Interest

 

$

65

 

$

61

 

$

142

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Distributions to AES Corporation

 

$

121

 

$

101

 

$

104

 

 

Note: Information is presented on an AES basis and is unaudited. Certain intercompany transactions may not be eliminated.

 



 

 

North America West Business Review

AES CORPORATION

Mark Woodruff

 

Vice President, North America West

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

May 9, 2006

 



 

North America West Generation Portfolio

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

North America West Business Portfolio

 

North America West

 

Contract Generation

 

100%

100%

100%

55%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

AES Alamitos

AES
Huntington
Beach

AES Redondo Beach

AES Merida

AES Placerita

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Calif.
Gas
(2,047MW)
1998

Southern Calif.
Gas
(904MW)
1998

Southern Calif.
Gas
(1,376MW)
1998

Mexico
Gas
(484MW)
2000

Southern Calif.
Gas
(115MW)
1989

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

North America West Business Portfolio

 

North America West

 

Contract Generation

Competitive Supply

 

 

 

 

100%

100%

57%, 25%

100%

 

 

 

 

AES Shady Point

AES Hawaii

AES Delano
AES Mendota

AES
Deepwater

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma
Coal
(320MW)
1991

Hawaii
Coal
(203MW)
1992

Central Calif.
Biomass
(82MW)
2001

Texas
Petcoke
(160MW)
1986

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

North America West Customers

 

Revenue by Customer (2005)

 

[CHART]

 

CFE: Comision Federal de Electricidad

HECO: Hawaiian Electric Company

OGE: Oklahoma Gas & Electric Company

SCE: Southern California Edison

TXU: TXU Portfolio Management Company

 



 

North America West Revenue Model

 

Long-term contracts provided 93% of 2005 revenues

 

[CHART]

 



 

North America West Contract Maturity Profile

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Gross MW Under Contract

 

[CHART]

 

Assumes OG&E exercised options to extend Shady Point PPA.

 



 

North America West Fuel Supply

 

 

 

Coal

 

Natural Gas

 

Biomass &
Petroleum Coke

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sourced From

 

Hawaii – Indonesia
Shady Point – Oklahoma

 

Southland – Williams (1)
Merida – CFE (2)
Placerita – SCE (3)

 

Central Valley – Local
Deepwater – Local refinery

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation Method

 

Hawaii – Ships
Shady Point – Trucks

 

Pipeline

 

Central Valley – Trucks
Deepwater – Rail/Barge

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key Suppliers

 

Hawaii – KPC and Sprague
Shady Point – MCS, GCI, and Brazil Creek Mining

 

Merida – CFE

 

Central Valley – Various
Deepwater – Lyondell Citgo

 

GCI: Georges Colliers Inc.

MCS: Marine Coal Sales

KPC: PT Kaltim Prima Coal

 


(1)                                  Tolling agreement with Williams.

(2)                                  Fuel is passed through.

(3)                                  Tolling agreement with Southern California Edison.

 



 

North America West Major Initiatives

 

                  Incorporating Safety before anything else

 

                  Implementing Reliability Standards

 

                  Improving Development of People and Team Effectiveness

 

                  Knowing our Markets and Customers and acting on opportunities

 



 

North America West Generation KPIs

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Provide Clean, Reliable, Affordable Energy

 

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

 

 

 

 

                  Leading indicators

Safety Excellence

 

                  Reporting near misses

 

 

                  Safety walks

 

 

                  Lagging Indicators

 

 

                  OSHA metrics (recordable incident rate, LTAs)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                  Emissions rates (lbs per MWh)

Environmental Excellence

 

                  % NOX and SO2 removal

 

 

                  Opacity

 

 

 

 

 

                  Reliability

 

 

                  Commercial availability (CA)

Operational Excellence

 

                  Equivalent forced outage factor (EFOF)

 

 

                  Low cost

 

 

                  Non-fuel O&M ($/KW-yr and $/MWh)

 

 

                  Efficiency

 

 

                  Best achievable heat rate gap (BTU/KWh)

 



 

North America West Safety Performance

 

OSHA Recordable Incident Rate

 

[CHART]

 

NA West’s incident rate is well below industry average

 

Safety improvements include:

                  Implementation of proactive safety activities

                  Near Miss identification

                  Safety Rover program

                  Job Safety Analyses (JSAs)

                  Safety walks by leaders

                  Additional awareness and emphasis on safety from all levels of the company through activities such as the Safety Day

                  Ongoing safety audits, emphasis on housekeeping and implementation of SMS standards

                  Creating a work environment where safe behavior is valued

 



 

North America West Emissions Performance

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

NOX Emissions Rate (lbs/MWh)

 

[CHART]

 

NOX emissions rate improvements include:

 

                  Previous SCR installations

                  2001: Alamitos units 1-4

                  2001: Huntington Beach units 1 and 2

                  2001-2: Redondo Beach units 5 and 6

                  2002-2003:Huntington Beach units 3 and 4 refurbishment

                  Planned improvements

                  2007: SCR at Deepwater

 



 

North America West Reliability Performance

 

Commercial Availability

 

[CHART]

 

                  Commercial availability remains strong

                  Four plants with commercial availability greater than 99% in 2005

                  Commercial availability improvement efforts are ongoing

                  Increased awareness and improved prioritization through reliability risk assessments (probability x impact)

                  Implementation of good maintenance and operating practices based on reliability standards

                  Pursuing opportunities for knowledge transfer and learning across North America through working groups, tech conferences, Peer Reviews and other forums

 



 

North America West Non-Fuel O&M

 

Non-Fuel O&M Cost

($/kw-yr) in 2002 dollars

 

[CHART]

 

                  Reductions in 2002 and 2003 due to AES emergency cost cutting

                  Recent efforts are focused on optimization of revenue with maintenance spending

                  Focus on implementation of uniform reliability standards

                  Upgrading maintenance management systems (CMMS)

                  Improving root cause analysis

                  Better and more consistent planning of work and outages

                  Consistent standards for training and qualifications

                  Developing better methods for sourcing materials and services

 



 

AES Southland Operational Improvement

 

                  Created a high ownership work environment

                  Targeted repairs on highest risk equipment using tools such as:

                  Condition-Based Maintenance

                  Proactive/predictive techniques

                  Re-tubed oldest boilers

                  Performed root cause analysis on chronic reliability issues to prevent recurrence

                  Reliability improvement was achieved while reducing NFOM cost by 25% and operating the oldest units more frequently

 

Equivalent Availablity Factor

 

[CHART]

 

Equivalent Forced Outage Factor

 

[CHART]

 



 

AES Merida III Reliability Improvement

 

                  Challenged costly recommendation to replace gas valves, and instead replaced valve seats and significantly reduced failed starts

                  Used Root Cause Analysis techniques to identify and correct numerous design flaws that were causing trips

                  Solved several system design problems in order to reliably transition between gas and diesel as required by CFE

                  Simulator training used for start-ups and failures training

                  Instituted state of the art turbine operating hours tracking

 

Equivalent Forced Outage Rate

 

[CHART]

 

Combustion Turbine Equivalent Starts

 

[CHART]

 



 

North America West Scenario Planning

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Strategic Issues

 

Shady Point contract extension

 

                  Currently negotiating with OGE

                  Contingency planning if OGE does not renew

 

Deepwater environmental capex

 

                  Installation of SCR and low NOX burners

                  $39 million capital cost

                  Expected completion 2Q 2007

 

Turnaround of biomass businesses

 

                  Improving reliability

                  Screening non-combustible material from fuel

 

Environmental regulation in California

 

                  Participating in Climate Action Registry for CO2 emissions

                  Conducting impact studies of cooling water intake and discharge on marine life

 



 

North America West Growth Opportunities

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Platform Expansion

 

                  Highgrove: 330MW gas-fired plant in CA

                  Huntington Beach: desalination plant in CA

                  Shady Point II: expansion in OK

                  Deepwater II: brownfield in TX

                  Ethanol associated with existing sites

 

Greenfield

 

                  Participate in selective opportunities

                  Mexico, Colorado, Oklahoma, British Columbia

 

Acquisitions

 

                  Potential acquisition in Mexico

 

Coal

 

                  Potential acquisition and development of other OK mines

 



 

North America Contract Generation Financial Overview

 

(US$ Million)

 

 

 

2003

 

2004

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

$

1,221

 

$

1,258

 

$

1,281

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin

 

$

509

 

$

511

 

$

448

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Before Tax & Minority Interest

 

$

236

 

$

275

 

$

208

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Distributions to AES Corporation

 

$

266

 

$

206

 

$

234

 

 

Note: Information is presented on an AES basis and is unaudited. Certain intercompany transactions may not be eliminated.

 



 

 

2006 AES Investor Conference Series

AES CORPORATION

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

May 9, 2006