EX-99.3 4 a06-8250_1ex99d3.htm EXHIBIT 99

Exhibit 99.3

 

 

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AES Investor Presentation

 

AES CORPORATION

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

April 4, 2006

 



 

Safe Harbor Disclosure

 

Certain statements in the following presentation regarding AES’s business operations may constitute “forward looking statements.”  Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those related to future earnings, growth and financial and operating performance. Forward-looking statements are not intended to be a guarantee of future results, but instead constitute AES’s current expectations based on reasonable assumptions. Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions. These assumptions include, but are not limited to continued normal or better levels of operating performance and electricity demand at our distribution companies and operational performance at our contract generation businesses consistent with historical levels, as well as achievements of planned productivity improvements and incremental growth from investments at investment levels and rates of return consistent with prior experience. For additional assumptions see the Appendix to this presentation. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and other factors. Important factors that could affect actual results are discussed in AES’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission including but not limited to the risks discussed under Item 1A “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005 as well as our other SEC filings. AES undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 

www.aes.com

 

2



 

AES is Among the Largest Global Power Companies

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

$11.1 billion revenue power generation and distribution business
$2.2 billion net cash provide by operating activities
Capacity to serve 100 million people in 25 countries

 

Note: 2005 financial data.

 

3



 

Clear Strategic Focus

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

Key Strategy Elements

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Operational Excellence

 

Deleveraging and Credit Improvement

 

Focused Growth Strategies

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 Financial Metrics (1)

Diluted EPS from continuing operations of $1.03 – $1.34

Gross margin improvement to $3.5 billion

ROIC (2) of 11%

Net cash from operating activities of $2.6 – $2.9 billion


(1) Guidance includes growth projects committed to in 2004 and prior years. See Appendix.

(2) Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.

 

4



 

Diversified Utilities and Generation Portfolio

 

2005 Revenue
$11.1 billion

 

2005 Gross Margin
$3.2 billion

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

 

 

                  Regulated Utilities in 7 countries

 

                  Generation (1)

 

 

77% Revenue from long-term contracts

 

 

23% Revenue from short-term contracts and spot sales

 


(1)               Generation comprises Contract Generation and Competitive Supply segments.

 

5



 

Generation KPIs

 

 

 

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

 

 

 

Safety Excellence

 

                  Lost time accidents (LTA)

                  Near misses

 

 

 

Operational Excellence

 

                  Equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR)

                  Operating cost per megawatt hour

                  Heat rate

                  Global sourcing (target spend & sourced savings)

 

 

 

Customer Service Excellence

 

                  Equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR)

                  Commercial availability

 

6



 

KPI Focus – Commercial Availability in North America

 

60% of the businesses that identify commercial availability as a key driver realized improvements in 2005

 

 

 

 

 

Red Oak, Pennsylvania

 

Red Oak – Commercial Availability

                  Provided better training

 

 

                  Applied problem solving tools

 

 

                  Improved maintenance practices

 

[CHART]

                  Invested in targeted capex

 

 

                  Result: 2.4% point improvement since 2003

 

 

 

 

 

Cayuga, New York

 

 

                  Optimized boiler outages

 

Cayuga – Commercial Availability

                  Improved heat rate

 

 

                  Increased preventive maintenance

 

 

                  Result: 1.3% point improvement since 2003

 

[CHART]

 

7



 

KPI Focus – Heat Rate in Asia

 

Heat rate improved in 2005 for over half of the AES plants that identify it as a key driver

 

OPGC – Heat Rate (Btu/KWh)

 

 

 

OPGC, India and Kelanitissa, Sri Lanka

 

[CHART]

                  Improved component operations through a series of targeted operating and capital investments

 

 

                  Improved maintenance and work identification processes

 

Kelanitissa – Heat Rate (Btu/KWh)

                  Increased rigor in monitoring and immediately addressing heat rate deviations

 

 

                  Results: 3% and 1% improvement, respectively, since 2003

 

[CHART]

 

8



 

Utility KPIs

 

 

 

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

 

 

 

Safety Excellence

 

                  Lost time accidents (LTA)

                  Near misses

                  Public safety

 

 

 

Operational Excellence

 

                  Losses rate

                  Collections rate

                  O&M per customer

                  Overhead per customer

 

 

 

Customer Service Excellence

 

                  System interruption frequency (SAIFI)

                  System interruption duration (SAIDI)

                  Customer satisfaction surveys

 

9



 

KPI Focus – Losses in Latin America

 

 

 

In 2005 every AES regulated utility improved year-over-year total loss rates

 

 

 

Eletropaulo – Total Losses (1)

 

Eletropaulo, Brazil

 

 

                  Refocused loss reduction efforts

 

 

                  Increased number and efficiency of theft inspections

[CHART]

 

                  Results: 10% improvement since beginning of 2004 and normalized 188 MWh in 2005

 

 

 

AES El Salvador – Total Losses (2)

 

AES El Salvador

 

 

                  Improved meter inspections and follow up (replacement and recalibration)

 

 

                  Improved meter reading practices

[CHART]

 

                  Changed 73,000 obsolete meters in 2004-2005

 

 

                  Result: 10% improvement since 2003

 


(1) Trailing 12 months, excludes rebilled energy.

(2) Trailing 12 months.

 

10



 

Financial Strategy Elements

 

 

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

Target Capital Structure

 

                  Achieve BB credit statistics

                  Optimize return on invested capital

 

 

 

Robust Risk Management

 

                  Global interest rate, currency, energy cost risk management strategies

                  Limited recourse project finance structures

 

 

 

Transparent Disclosure

 

                  Financial analysis and reporting

                  Sarbanes/Oxley compliance

                  Proactive investor communications

                  Corporate values and rigorous code of business conduct and compliance program

 

11



 

Limited US Merchant Exposure Hedged With Creditworthy Customers

 

 

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

AES Eastern Energy Contracting Strategy

 

 

 

Hedge Metrics (1)

 

Hedge % by Counterparty Credit (2006) (1)

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 


(1)               Data as of December 31, 2005.

 

12



 

Actively Managed Floating Rate Debt Exposure

 

 

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

AES Debt Profile

 

 

 

AES Fixed vs. Floating Rate Debt

 

Floating Rate Debt by Currency (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated

 

Minority Interest
Adjusted

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

US Dollar

 

51

%

66

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil Real

 

38

%

18

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Colombia Peso

 

3

%

5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Venezuela Bolivar

 

2

%

3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Euro

 

2

%

3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other currencies

 

4

%

4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

100

%

100

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Floating rate debt

 

$

3.9 billion

 

$

2.4 billion

 

 


(1)               Including interest rate swaps.

(2)               Data as of December 31, 2005.

 

13



 

Measuring Improvement through Gross Margin and Return on Invested Capital

 

Performance Drivers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Generation

 

Utilities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Contracted Capacity

 

Tariff Process Management

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Competitive Supply Dispatch

 

Demand Growth (non-US)

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reduce EFOR

 

Reduce Commercial Losses

 

 

 

Gross

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

 

Optimize Operating & Sourcing Costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating

 

 

 

 

Fuel Purchase Risk Management

 

Costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROIC

Overhead Cost Management

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Below Gross

 

 

 

 

Currency and Other Risk Management

 

Margin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Working Capital and Debt Reduction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asset

 

 

 

 

Asset Utilization

 

Management

 

 

 

 

 

14



 

Strong Free Cash Flow

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

[CHART]

 


(1)               Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.

(2)               Based on midpoints of 2006 guidance of $2.2 to $2.3 billion net cash provided by operating activities, maintenance capital expenditures of $800 to $900 million, and free cash flow of $1.3 to $1.5 billion. Free cash flow is a non-GAAP financial measure equal to net cash provided by operating activities less maintenance capital expenditures.

 

15



 

Disciplined Use of Growing Free Cash Flow

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

2006 Free Cash Flow (1) Profile

 

2006
Strategy

 

2007-2008 and Beyond
Strategy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Parent
Free Cash
Flow
$350 MM

 

Achieve BB/Ba2
credit metrics

Rebuild
development
pipeline

 

Invest for growth

Alternatives if growth projects don’t develop at adequate returns

  investment grade credit
  cash dividends

Free Cash
Flow (1)
$1,400 MM

Optimize Annually

 

 

 

  share repurchases

 

Subsidiary
Free Cash
Flow
$1,050 MM

 

Subsidiary debt reduction

Platform expansion

Dividends (AES and minority owners)

 


(1)               Non-GAAP financial measure based on midpoint of 2006 guidance of $1.3 to $1.5 billion and is reconciled from 2006 guidance for net cash from operating activities of $2.2 to $2.3 billion less maintenance capital expenditures of $800 – $900 million. Estimated allocation of this midpoint 2006 free cash flow guidance is approximately $350 million at the parent company and $1,050 million at subsidiaries.

 

16



 

Breadth of AES Capabilities

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Distribution

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Coal-Fired

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Hydroelectric

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Wind Power

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

LNG

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Gas-Fired

 

17



 

Rebuilding Development Pipeline

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Deep Development Pipeline Supports Sustained Growth

 

4-6 Years for Greenfield Projects

3-4 Years for Wind Projects

 

Development
Milestones

 

Market
Assessment/
Feasibility Study

Negotiations/
Permits/
RFP

Purchase
Agreement

Project
Financing

Construction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Activity

 

38 Countries

6 Countries

1 Country

2 Countries

3 Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Examples of Current
Portfolio
Development
Activity

 

Central America

China

Eastern Europe

India

Pakistan

South Africa

US

Bahamas

El Salvador

Middle East

US

Vietnam

India

Chile

Bulgaria

Panama

Chile

Spain

US

 

18



 

Demonstrated Success With Generation Growth Program

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Cumulative Generation Additions 2003-2006E

(% Increase Above 2002 Base)

 

[CHART]

 

12 projects in 9 countries representing over 3,800 MW capacity

94% long-term contracts

 

Note: Includes projects under construction.

 

19



 

Four Elements Frame
AES Growth Strategy

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Platform Expansion

 

                  Leverage existing knowledge, relationships, and subsidiary cash

                  Examples: Los Vientos, Changuinola

 

Greenfield

 

                  Focus on contracted projects

                  Non-recourse financing

                  Examples: Maritza, MOUs in Vietnam and India

 

Privatization

 

                  Central Europe

                  Turkey

 

Acquisitions

 

                  Rebalance geographic portfolio

                  Select opportunities in AES country markets

 

20



 

Rigorous Capital Discipline

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Strategic Objectives

 

Market

 

Knowledge

 

 

                  Regional business model

                  Leverage existing assets

 

Execution

Skills

Value

Creation

 

                  Leverage operating model

                  People excellence

 

Risk

Management

 

 

                  Appropriate hurdle rates

                  Reduce portfolio earnings/cash flow volatility

 

Capital Allocation Process

 

Project Financial Analysis/Valuation

 

Independent Review

 

Executive Office Approval

 

Board of Directors Approval > $25 Million

 

Project Execution

 

21



 

Key Takeaways

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

                  Global power market offers sizeable growth opportunities

                  AES well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities

                  Investment discipline firmly established

                  Strong AES financial metrics

                  Margin expansion

                  ROIC improvement

                  Growing free cash flow

                  Improving credit quality

                  Double digit EPS growth

                  Incentives aligned with investors

                  Stock performance (options)

                  Free cash flow growth (performance units)

                  Outperform S&P 500 total return (restricted stock)

 

22



 

AES: The power of being global.

 

[GRAHIC]

 

Thank you.

 



 

Appendix - Assumptions

 

Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions. Such assumptions include, but are not limited to: 1) no unforeseen external events such as wars, depressions, or economic or political disruptions occur; 2 ) businesses continue to operate in a manner consistent with or better than prior operating performance, including achievement of planned productivity improvements including benefits of global sourcing, and in accordance with the provisions of their relevant contracts or concessions; 3) new business opportunities are available to AES in sufficient quantity so that AES can capture its historical market share or increase its share; 4) no material disruptions or discontinuities occur in GDP, foreign exchange rates, inflation or interest rates during the forecast period; 5)  negative factors do not combine to create highly negative low-probability business situations; 6) material business-specific risks as described in the Company’s SEC filings do not occur.

 

In addition, benefits from global sourcing include avoided costs, reduction in capital project costs versus budgetary estimates, and projected savings based on assumed spend volume, which may or may not actually be achieved. Also, improvement in certain KPIs such as EFOR and commercial availability may not improve financial performance at all facilities based on commercial terms and conditions. These benefits will not be fully reflected in the Company’s consolidated financial results.

 

24



 

Appendix - Definitions

 

                  Free Cash Flow – Net cash from operating activities less maintenance capital expenditures. Maintenance capital expenditures reflect property additions less growth capital expenditures.

 

                  Lost Time Accident (LTA) – An incident in which the injured person is kept away from work beyond the day of the incident.

 

                  Near Miss – An incident that occurred but did not result in any injury. In AES, we have expanded this to include unsafe conditions that have been observed.

 

                  O&M – Operation and maintenance.

 

                  Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) – An integrated maintenance methodology that optimizes among reactive, interval-based, condition-based, and proactive maintenance practices to take advantage of their respective strengths in order to maximize facility and equipment reliability while minimizing life-cycle costs.

 

                  Return on invested capital (ROIC) – Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) divided by average capital. NOPAT is defined as income before tax and minority expense plus interest expense less income taxes less tax benefit on interest expense at effective tax rate. Average capital is defined as the average of beginning and ending total debt plus minority interest plus stockholders’ equity less debt service reserves and other deposits.

 

                  System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) – A measure of the cumulative duration of electric service forced and sustained interruptions experienced by customers each year, excluding “force majeure” events. SAIDI is calculated as the total number of customer minutes of sustained interruption divided by the number of customers served.

 

                  System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) – A measure of the number of outages per customer per year. SAIFI is calculated by dividing the total number of customer-sustained interruptions by the number of customers served.

 

25



 

Appendix – Summary Financial
Information 2003 –2005

 

 

 

2005

 

2004 (1)

 

2003 (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

$

11,086

 

$

9,463

 

$

8,413

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross margin

 

3,178

 

2,782

 

2,459

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income (loss) from continuing operations

 

632

 

264

 

294

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations

 

$

0.95

 

$

0.41

 

$

0.49

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net cash from operating activities

 

$

2,165

 

$

1,571

 

$

1,642

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maintenance capital expenditures

 

(631

)

(507

)

(542

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Free cash flow (2)

 

$

1,534

 

$

1,064

 

$

1,100

 

 


(1)               Restated.

(2)               Non-GAAP financial measure. See page 25 for definition.

 

26



 

Appendix – Reconciliation of Adjusted Earnings Per Share

 

 

 

2005

 

2004 (1) (2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations

 

$

0.95

 

$

0.41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FAS 133 Mark-to-Market (Gains)/Losses (2)

 

 

0.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currency Transaction (Gains)/Losses

 

(0.04

)

0.06

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Asset (Gains)/Losses and Impairments

 

 

0.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Debt Retirement (Gains)/Losses

 

 

0.01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Adjustment Factors

 

(0.04

)

0.18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted Earnings per Share (3)

 

$

0.91

 

$

0.59

 

 


(1)               Restated.

 

(2)               2004 results include $0.03 related to Chile debt restructuring costs.

 

(3)               Adjusted earnings per share (a non-GAAP financial measure) is defined as diluted earnings per share from continuing operations excluding gains or losses associated with (a) mark-to-market amounts related to FAS 133 derivative transactions, (b) foreign currency transaction impacts on the net monetary position related to Brazil, Venezuela, and Argentina, (c) significant asset gains or losses due to disposition transactions and impairments, and (d) early retirement of recourse debt. AES believes that adjusted earnings per share better reflects the underlying business performance of the Company, and are considered in the Company’s internal evaluation of financial performance. Factors in this determination include the variability associated with mark-to-market gains or losses related to certain derivative transactions, currency transaction gains or losses, periodic strategic decisions to dispose of certain assets which may influence results in a given period, and the early retirement of corporate debt.

 

27



 

Appendix – Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

 

Net Operating Profit After Tax (1)

 

2005

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IBT&MI

 

$

1,458

 

$

822

 

$

644

 

Reported Interest Expense

 

1,896

 

1,932

 

1,984

 

Income Tax Expense (2)

 

(1,070

)

(1,203

)

(861

)

Net Operating Profit After Tax

 

2,284

 

1,551

 

1,767

 

Effective Tax Rate (3)

 

32

%

44

%

33

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROIC (4)

 

11.3

%

7.7

%

9.0

%

 

 

 

December

 

December

 

December

 

December

 

Total Capital (5)

 

2005

 

2004

 

2003

 

2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Debt

 

$

17,706

 

$

18,588

 

$

19,638

 

$

20,047

 

Minority Interest

 

1,611

 

1,305

 

995

 

885

 

Stockholders’ Equity

 

1,649

 

956

 

(101

)

(855

)

Debt Service Reserves and Other Deposits

 

(611

)

(737

)

(617

)

(515

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Capital

 

$

20,355

 

$

20,112

 

$

19,915

 

$

19,562

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Capital (6)

 

$

20,234

 

$

20,014

 

$

19,739

 

 

 

 


(1)               Net operating profit after tax, a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as income before tax and minority interest expense (IBT&MI) plus interest expense less income taxes less tax benefit on interest expense at the effective tax rate.

(2)               Income tax expense calculated by multiplying the sum of IBT&MI and reported interest expense for the period by the effective tax rate for the period.

(3)               Effective tax rate calculated by dividing reported income tax expense for the period by IBT&MI for the period.

(4)               Return on invested capital (ROIC), a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net operating profit after tax divided by average capital calculated over rolling 12 month basis.

(5)               Total capital, a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as total debt plus minority interest plus shareholders equity less debt service reserves.

(6)               Average capital is defined as the average of beginning and ending total capital over the last 12 months.

 

28