EX-99.3 4 a06-2501_1ex99d3.htm EXHIBIT 99

Exhibit 99.3

 

 

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AES Investor Presentation

 

AES CORPORATION

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

January 19, 2006

 



 

Safe Harbor Disclosure

 

Certain statements in the following presentation regarding AES’s business operations may constitute “forward looking statements.”  Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those related to future earnings, growth and financial and operating performance.  Forward-looking statements are not intended to be a guarantee of future results, but instead constitute AES’s current expectations based on reasonable assumptions.  Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions.  These assumptions include, but are not limited to continued normal or better levels of operating performance and electricity demand at our distribution companies and operational performance at our contract generation businesses consistent with historical levels, as well as achievements of planned productivity improvements and incremental growth from investments at investment levels and rates of return consistent with prior experience. For additional assumptions see the Appendix to this presentation. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements due to risks, uncertainties and other factors. Important factors that could affect actual results are discussed in AES’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, but not limited to the risks discussed under the caption “Cautionary Statements and Risk Factors” in the Company’s 2004 Annual Report on Form 10-K/A, as well as our other SEC filings. AES undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 

www.aes.com

 

2



 

AES is Among the Largest Global Power Companies

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

$9.5 billion revenue power generation and distribution business

$1.6 billion net cash from operating activities

Capacity to serve 100 million people in 26 countries

 

Note: 2004 data.

 

3



 

Clear Strategic Focus

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Key Strategy Elements and Projected Financial Metrics 2003-2008

 

Global
Operational
Excellence

 

Deleveraging
and Credit
Improvement

 

Focused
Growth
Strategies

 

 

Double-digit growth in EPS from continuing operations(1)
Gross margin improvement to $3.5 billion
ROIC(2) improvement to 11%

 


(1)          Based on 13-19% per year growth in diluted EPS from continuing operations from $0.56 per share 2003 base (pre-restatement). Implied range of 2008 EPS forecasts of up to $1.34 in 2008 is unchanged based on restated 2003 diluted EPS from continuing operations. See Appendix.

(2)          Non-GAAP financial measures. Guidance includes growth projects committed to in 2004 and prior years. See Appendix.

 

4



 

Diversified Utilities and Generation Portfolio

 

2004 Revenue
$9.5 billion

 

2004 Gross Margin
$2.8 billion

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

                  Regulated Utilities in 7 countries

 

                  Generation(1)

 

 

 

78% Revenue from long-term contracts

 

 

 

22% Revenue from short-term contracts and spot sales

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1)          Generation comprises Contract Generation and Competitive Supply segments

 

5



 

Generation KPI’s

 

 

 

Key Peformance Indicator (KPI)

 

 

 

 

 

                  Lost time accidents (LTA)

Safety Excellence

 

                  Near misses

 

 

 

Operational Excellence

 

                  Equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR)

                  Operating cost per megawatt hour

                  Heat rate

                  Global sourcing (target spend & sourced savings)

 

 

 

Customer Service Excellence

 

                  Equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR)

                  Commercial availability

 

6



 

KPI Example - Utility Generation Plant EFOR Improvement

 

IPL (US) and EDC (Venezuela) EFOR
2003-2005YTD
(1)

 

[CHART]

 

EFOR Improvement

 

IPL sources of improvement:

                  Targeted equipment replacement to improve reliability

                  Increased open market power sales

 

EDC sources of improvement:

                  Improved proactive maintenance

                  Better outage planning

 

Results:

                  40% improvement at IPL

                  76% improvement at EDC

 


(1)          Data through September 30, 2005

 

7



 

Utility KPI’s

 

 

Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

 

 

 

 

Lost time accidents (LTA)

Safety Excellence

Near misses

 

Public safety

 

 

 

 

Losses rate

Operational Excellence

Collections rate

 

O&M per customer

 

Overhead per customer

 

 

 

 

System interruption frequency (SAIFI)

Customer Service Excellence

System interruption duration (SAIDI)

 

Customer satisfaction surveys

 

8



 

Utility KPI Example - El Salvador O&M per Customer

 

El Salvador O&M per Customer

2003-2005YTD(1)

 

[CHART]

 

El Salvador O&M Cost Reduction

 

                  Four distribution companies serving almost 1 million customers

 

Sources of improvement:

                  Integrating four distribution companies to gain synergies

                  Implemented rigorous work management process to streamline maintenance and improve workforce efficiency

                  Feeder level analysis to optimize investments and asset importance

 

Results: 21% unit O&M cost reduction

 


(1)          Data through September 30, 2005

 

9



 

Utility KPI Examples - Argentina Losses

 

Eden Total Loss Rate

2003-2005YTD(1)

 

[CHART]

 

Eden Total Loss Rate Reduction

 

                  Distribution company serving almost 300,000 customers

 

Sources of improvement:

                  Increased proactive contact with customers possibly committing fraud

                  100% increase in letters sent to bad debtors

                  More aggressive and targeted disconnection effort and use of collection agents

 

Results: 27% total loss rate reduction

 


(1)          Data through September 30, 2005

 

10



 

Financial Strategy Elements

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Target Capital Structure

$600 MM 2005-2006 parent debt reduction to achieve BB credit statistics

Optimize return on invested capital

 

 

 

 

 

 

Robust Risk Management

Global interest rate, currency, energy cost risk management strategies

Limited recourse project finance structures

 

 

 

Transparent Disclosure

Financial analysis and reporting

Sarbanes/Oxley compliance

Proactive investor communications

Corporate values and rigorous code of business conduct and compliance program

 

11



 

Limited US Merchant Exposure Hedged With Creditworthy Customers

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

AES Eastern Energy Contracting Strategy

 

Hedge Metrics (2005-6)(1)

 

Hedge % by Counterparty Credit (2005)(1)

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 


(1)          Data as of September 30, 2005

 

12



 

Actively Managed Floating Rate Debt Exposure

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

AES Debt Profile

 

AES Fixed vs. Floating Rate Debt

 

[CHART]

 

Floating Rate Debt by Currency(2)

 

 

 

 

 

Minority Interest

 

 

 

Consolidated

 

Adjusted

 

US Dollar

 

45

%

57

%

Brazilian Real

 

36

%

18

%

Euro

 

12

%

16

%

Hungarian Forint

 

3

%

4

%

Venezuelan Bolivar

 

2

%

3

%

Other currencies

 

2

%

2

%

 

 

100

%

100

%

Floating rate debt

 

$

3.7 billion

 

$

2.5 billion

 

 


(1)          Including interest rate swaps

(2)          Data as of September 30, 2005

 

13



 

Measuring Improvement through Gross Margin and Return on Invested Capital

 

Performance Drivers

 

 

 

 

 

Generation

 

Utilities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Contracted Capacity

 

Tariff Process Management

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Competitive Supply Dispatch

 

Demand Growth (non-US)

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reduce EFOR

 

Reduce Commercial Losses

Gross

 

 

 

 

Margin

 

Optimize Operating & Sourcing Costs

Fuel Purchase Risk Management

Operating
Costs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overhead Cost Management

Currency and Other Risk Management

Below Gross
Margin

     ROIC

 

 

 

 

 

 

Working Capital and Debt Reduction

Asset Utilization

Asset
Management

 

 

14



 

Strong Free Cash Flow Growth

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

[CHART]

 


(1)   Non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.

(2)   Based on midpoint of 2005 free cash flow financial guidance ($1,250 million)

 

15



 

Disciplined Use of Growing Free Cash Flow

 

 

 

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005-2006

2006-2007 and Beyond

 

2005 Free Cash Flow(1) Profile

Strategy

Strategy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Achieve BB/Ba2

Invest for growth

 

 

Parent

credit metrics

 

 

Free Cash
Flow
$350 MM


Rebuild
development
pipeline

Alternatives if growth projects don’t develop at adequate returns
investment grade credit
cash dividends
share repurchases

Free Cash

 

 

 

Flow(1)

Optimize Annually

 

 

$1,250 MM

 

 

 

 

 

Subsidiary debt reduction

 

 

Subsidiary

 

 

 

Free Cash

Platform expansion

 

 

Flow

 

 

 

$900 MM

Dividends (AES and minority owners)

 

 


(1)          Non-GAAP financial measure based on midpoint of 2005 guidance of $1.2 to $1.3 billion and is reconciled from 2005 guidance for net cash from operating activities of $1.9 to $2.0 billion less maintenance capital expenditures of $700 million. Estimated allocation of this midpoint 2005 free cash flow guidance is $350 million at the parent company and $900 million at subsidiaries.

 

16



 

Breadth of AES Capabilities

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

 

 

 

Distribution

 

Coal-Fired

 

Hydroelectric

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

 

 

 

Wind Power

 

LNG

 

Gas-Fired

 

17



 

Rebuilding Development Pipeline

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Deep Development Pipeline Supports Sustained Growth

 

4-6 Years for Greenfield Projects

3-4 Years for Wind Projects

 

Development
Milestones

 

Market
Assessment/
Feasibility Study

 

Negotiations/
Permits/
RFP

 

Purchase
Agreement

 

Project
Financing

 

Construction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Activity

 

38 Countries

 

6 Countries

 

1 Country

 

2 Countries

 

3 Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Central America

 

Bahamas

 

Chile

 

Bulgaria

 

Chile

Examples of

 

China

 

Romania

 

 

 

Panama

 

Spain

Current

 

Eastern Europe

 

El Salvador

 

 

 

 

 

US

Portfolio

 

India

 

Middle East

 

 

 

 

 

 

Development

 

Pakistan

 

US

 

 

 

 

 

 

Activity

 

South Africa

 

Vietnam

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18



 

Demonstrated Success With Generation Growth Program

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

Cumulative Generation Additions 2003-2006

(% Increase Above 2002 Base)

 

[CHART]

 

14 projects in 7 countries representing over 3,400 MW capacity
95%+ long-term contracts

 

Note: Includes projects under construction

 

19



 

Greenfield Example: Bulgaria

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

670 MW lignite-fired power plant

                  $1.4 billion project cost

                  15 year contract with NEK (national utility)

                  15 year lignite supply agreement minimizes energy supply risks

                  Letter of government support

                  €790 million non-recourse financing closed in December with commercial and multilateral banks

                  Completing site acquisition and permitting

                  Target first quarter 2006 start of construction

                  US$300 million+ new revenues expected by 2010

 

Proposed AES Maritza Plant, Bulgaria
(artist rendition)

 

[CHART]

 

20



 

Platform Expansion Example: Chile

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

120 MW San Pedro mixed-fuel power plant

•     $37 million project cost

      Based on current generation tariff structure

      Supports peaking, fuel diversification and hydrology risk management strategies

•     Uses diesel and natural gas

      Expected 2006 start-up

Proposed coal-fired power plants

      200-250 MW plants at existing Ventanas and Guacolda sites

      2009 Start-Up

•     Combined capital costs $600 million

•     Participating in Chilean RFP process

Combined platform expansion revenue potential $175 million by 2010

 

Ventanas Plant, Chile

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

21



 

Rigorous Capital Discipline

 

 

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

Strategic Objectives

 

Capital Allocation Process

 

 

 

Market Knowledge

 

Project Financial Analysis/Valuation

 

 

 

      Regional business model

      Leverage existing assets

 

Independent Review

 

 

 

Execution Skills

Value
Creation

Executive Office Approval

 

 

 

•     Leverage operating model

      People excellence

 

Board of Directors Approval > $25 Million

 

 

 

Risk Management

 

Project Execution

 

 

 

      Appropriate hurdle rates

 

 

      Reduce portfolio earnings/cash flow volatility

 

 

22



 

Key Takeaways

 

 

 

Contains Forward Looking Statements

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

Global power market offers sizeable growth opportunities

 

 

      AES well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities

 

 

      Investment discipline firmly established

[GRAPHIC]

Strong AES financial metrics

 

 

      Margin expansion

 

 

      ROIC improvement

 

 

      Growing free cash flow

[GRAPHIC]

 

      Improving credit quality

 

 

      Double digit EPS growth

 

Incentives aligned with investors

 

 

      Stock performance (options)

 

 

      Free cash flow growth (performance units)

 

 

      Other performance metrics (restricted stock)

 

23



 

AES: The power of being global.

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Thank you.

 



 

Appendix - Assumptions

 

Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions.  Such assumptions include, but are not limited to: 1) no unforeseen external events such as wars, depressions, or economic or political disruptions occur; 2) businesses continue to operate in a manner consistent with or better than prior operating performance, including achievement of planned productivity improvements including benefits of global sourcing, and in accordance with the provisions of their relevant contracts or concessions; 3) new business opportunities are available to AES in sufficient quantity so that AES can capture its historical market share; 4) no major disruptions or discontinuities occur in GDP, foreign exchange rates, inflation or interest rates during the forecast period; 5) negative factors do not combine to create highly negative low-probability business situations; 6) business-specific risks as described in the Company’s SEC filings do not occur.

 

In addition, benefits from global sourcing include avoided costs, reduction in capital project costs versus budgetary estimates, and projected savings based on assumed spend volume which may or may not actually be achieved. These benefits will not be fully reflected in the Company’s consolidated financial results.

 

25



 

Appendix - Definitions

 

                  Free cash flow – Net cash from operating activities less maintenance capital expenditures. Maintenance capital expenditures reflect property additions less growth capital expenditures.

 

                  Lost Time Accident (LTA) - An incident in which the injured person is kept away from work beyond the day of the incident.

 

                  Near Miss - an incident that occurred but did not result in any injury. In AES, we have expanded this to include unsafe conditions that have been observed.

 

                  O&M – Operation and maintenance.

 

                  Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) – An integrated maintenance methodology that optimizes among reactive, interval-based, condition-based, and proactive maintenance practices to take advantage of their respective strengths in order to maximize facility and equipment reliability while minimizing life-cycle costs.

 

                  Return on invested capital (ROIC) - Defined as net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) divided by average capital. NOPAT is defined as income before tax and minority expense plus interest expense less income taxes less tax benefit on interest expense at effective tax rate. Average capital is defined as the average of beginning and ending total debt plus minority interest plus shareholders equity less debt service reserves.

 

                  System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) – A measure of the cumulative duration of electric service forced and sustained interruptions experienced by customers each year, excluding “force majeure” events. SAIDI is calculated as the total number of customer minutes of sustained interruption divided by the number of customers served.

 

                  System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) – A measure of the number of outages per customer per year.  SAIFI is calculated by dividing the total number of customer-sustained interruptions by the number of customers served.

 

26



 

Appendix – Summary Financial Information 2002 – September 30, 2005

 

 

 

Nine Months ending
September 30,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005

 

2004

 

2004

 

2003

 

2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

$

8,113

 

$

6,940

 

$

9,463

 

$

8,413

 

$

7,377

 

Gross margin

 

2,249

 

2,076

 

2,782

 

2,459

 

1,968

 

Income (loss) from continuing operations

 

453

 

231

 

258

 

311

 

(2,064

)

Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations

 

$

0.68

 

$

0.36

 

$

0.40

 

$

0.52

 

$

(3.83

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Free cash flow(1)

 

$

957

 

$

754

 

$

1,064

 

$

1,100

 

$

774

 

Maintenance capital expenditures

 

509

 

363

 

507

 

542

 

761

 

Net cash from operating activities

 

$

1,466

 

$

1,117

 

$

1,571

 

$

1,642

 

$

1,535

 

 

Note: Restated.

 


(1)          Non-GAAP financial measure and is reconciled from net cash from operating activities less maintenance capital expenditures.

 

27



 

Appendix – Reconciliation of Adjusted Earnings Per Share

 

 

 

2005E

 

2004(2)(3)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted Earnings Per Share(1)

 

$

0.83

 

$

0.58

 

FAS 133 Mark-to-Market Gains/(Losses)(3)

 

 

(0.06

)

Currency Transaction Gains/(Losses)

 

 

(0.06

)

Net Asset Gains/(Losses and Impairments)

 

 

(0.05

)

Debt Retirement Gains/(Losses)

 

 

(0.01

)

Total Adjustment Factors

 

0.02

 

(0.18

)

Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations

 

$

0.85

 

$

0.40

 

Restatement Impacts (2004)

 

 

 

$

(0.17

)

Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations (before restatement)

 

 

 

$

0.57

 

 


(1)          Adjusted earnings per share (a non-GAAP financial measure) is defined as diluted earnings per share from continuing operations excluding gains or losses associated with (a) mark-to-market amounts related to FAS 133 derivative transactions, (b) foreign currency transaction impacts on the net monetary position related to Brazil, Venezuela, and Argentina, (c) significant asset gains or losses due to disposition transactions and impairments, and (d) early retirement of recourse debt. AES believes that adjusted earnings per share better reflects the underlying business performance of the Company, and are considered in the Company’s internal evaluation of financial performance. Factors in this determination include the variability associated with mark-to-market gains or losses related to certain derivative transactions, and periodic strategic decisions to dispose of certain assets which may influence results in a given period.  Certain reclassifications have been made to prior-period amounts to conform to the 2004 presentation.

 

(2)          Restated. 2003 adjusted EPS not recalculated.

 

(3)          2004 results include $(0.03) related to Chile debt restructuring costs.

 

28



 

Appendix – Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

 

 

 

Twelve Months Ending

 

 

 

Net Operating Profit After Tax (1)

 

September 2005

 

2004

 

IBT&MI

 

$

1,265

 

$

831

 

Reported Interest Expense

 

1,884

 

1,941

 

Income Tax Expense (2)

 

1,312

 

1,251

 

Net Operating Profit After Tax

 

1,837

 

1,521

 

Effective Tax Rate (3)

 

42

%

45

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROIC (4)

 

9.0

%

7.6

%

 

 

 

September

 

December

 

September

 

December

 

Total Capital (5)

 

2005

 

2004

 

2004

 

2003

 

Total Debt

 

$

17,946

 

$

18,588

 

$

18,515

 

$

19,638

 

Minority Interest

 

1,517

 

1,279

 

981

 

961

 

Stockholders’Equity

 

1,421

 

972

 

1,572

 

(68

)

Debt Service Reserves and Other Deposits

 

(653

)

(737

)

(598

)

(617

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Capital

 

$

20,231

 

$

20,102

 

$

20,470

 

$

19,914

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Capital (6)

 

$

20,351

 

$

20,008

 

 

 

 

 

 


(1)   Net operating profit after tax,  a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as income before tax and minority interest expense (IBT&MI) plus interest expense less income taxes less tax benefit on interest expense at the effective tax rate.

(2)   Income tax expense calculated by multiplying the sum of IBT&MI and reported interest expense for the period by the effective tax rate for the period.

(3)   Effective tax rate calculated by dividing reported income tax expense for the period by IBT&MI for the period.

(4)   Return on invested capital (ROIC), a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as net operating profit after tax divided by average capital calculated over rolling 12 month basis.

(5)   Total capital, a non-GAAP financial measure, is defined as total debt plus minority interest plus shareholders equity less debt service reserves.

(6)   Average capital is defined as the average of beginning and ending total capital over the last twelve months.

 

29