Financial Guarantee Insurance Contracts

3 Months Ended

Mar. 31, 2013

Insurance [Abstract]

Financial Guarantee Insurance Contracts

6. FINANCIAL GUARANTEE INSURANCE CONTRACTS

Net Premiums Earned:

Amounts presented in this Note relates only to Ambac’s non-derivative insurance business for insurance policies issued to beneficiaries, including VIEs, for which we do not consolidate the VIE.

Gross premiums are received either upfront (typical of public finance obligations) or in installments (typical of structured finance obligations). For premiums received upfront, an unearned premium revenue (“UPR”) liability is established, which is initially recorded as the cash amount received. For installment premium transactions, a premium receivable asset and offsetting UPR liability is initially established in an amount equal to: (i) the present value of future contractual premiums due (the “contractual” method) or, (ii) if the underlying insured obligation is a homogenous pool of assets which are contractually prepayable, the present value of premiums to be collected over the expected life of the transaction (the “expected” method). An appropriate risk-free rate corresponding to the weighted average life of each policy and currency is used to discount the future premiums contractually due or expected to be collected. For example, U.S. dollar exposures are discounted using U.S. Treasury rates while exposures denominated in a foreign currency are discounted using the appropriate risk-free rate for the respective currency. The weighted average risk-free rate at March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, and the weighted average period of future premiums used to estimate the premium receivable at March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, were 9.8 years and 9.6 years, respectively.

Insured obligations consisting of homogeneous pools for which Ambac uses expected future premiums to estimate the premium receivable and UPR include residential mortgage-backed securities. As prepayment assumptions change for homogenous pool transactions, or if there is an actual prepayment for a “contractual” method installment transaction, the related premium receivable and UPR are adjusted in equal and offsetting amounts with no immediate effect on earnings using new premium cash flows and the then current risk-free rate.

Generally, the priority for the payment of financial guarantee premiums to Ambac, as required by the bond indentures of the insured obligations, is very senior in the waterfall. Additionally, in connection with the allocation of certain liabilities to the Segregated Account, trustees are required under the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Plan and related court orders to continue to pay installment premiums, notwithstanding the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings. In evaluating the credit quality of the premiums receivable, management evaluates the internal ratings of the transactions underlying the premiums receivable. As of March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, approximately 40% of the premiums receivable related to transactions with non-investment grade internal ratings, comprised mainly of non-investment grade MBS, student loan transactions and a certain asset-backed transaction, which comprised 7%, 9%, and 15% of the total premiums receivable at March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, respectively. As of March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, $119,162 and $118,961, respectively, of premium receivables relating to a non-investment obligation were deemed uncollectable. Past due premiums on policies insuring non-investment grade obligations amounted to less than $500 at March 31, 2013.

Below is the gross premium receivable roll-forward (direct and assumed contracts) for the periods ended March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012:

	March 31, 2013			December 31, 2012
Beginning premium receivable	$	1,620,621		$	2,028,479
Premium payments received		(35,115	)		(155,626	)
Adjustments for changes in expected life of homogeneous pools and actual changes to contractual cash flows		(14,524	)		(299,906	)
Accretion of premium receivable discount		11,190			50,407
Uncollectible premiums		(201	)		(28,031	)
Other adjustments (including foreign exchange)		(38,873	)		25,298
Ending premium receivable	$	1,543,098		$	1,620,621

Similar to gross premiums, premiums ceded to reinsurers are paid either upfront or in installments. Premiums ceded to reinsurers reduce the amount of premiums earned by Ambac from its financial guarantee insurance policies.

When a bond issue insured by Ambac Assurance has been retired, including those retirements due to refundings or calls, any remaining UPR is recognized at that time to the extent the financial guarantee contract is legally extinguished, causing accelerated premium revenue. For installment premium paying transactions, we offset the recognition of any remaining UPR by the reduction of the related premium receivable to zero (as it will not be collected as a result of the retirement), which may cause negative accelerated premium revenue. Accelerated premium revenue for retired obligations for the three months ended March 31, 2013 and 2012 were $29,360 and $15,790, respectively. Certain obligations insured by Ambac have been legally defeased whereby government securities are purchased by the issuer with the proceeds of a new bond issuance, or less frequently with other funds of the issuer, and held in escrow (a pre-refunding). The principal and interest received from the escrowed securities are then used to retire the Ambac-insured obligations at a future date either to their maturity date or a specified call date. Ambac has evaluated the provisions in certain financial guarantee insurance policies issued on legally defeased obligations and determined those insurance policies have not been legally extinguished and, therefore, premium revenue recognition has not been accelerated. The effect of reinsurance on premiums written and earned was as follows:

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2013						2012
	Written			Earned			Written			Earned
Direct	($	3,530	)	$	107,079		($	92,594	)	$	97,148
Assumed		—			24			—			25
Ceded		1,014			(6,847	)		16,854			(2,223	)
Net premiums	($	2,516	)	$	100,256		($	75,740	)	$	94,950

The table below summarizes the future gross undiscounted premiums expected to be collected, and future expected premiums earned, net of reinsurance at March 31, 2013:

	Future premiums expected to be collected (1)		Future expected premiums to be earned, net of reinsurance (1)
Three months ended:
June 30, 2013	$	34,028	$	58,929
September 30, 2013		32,009		55,616
December 31, 2013		30,709		52,685
Twelve months ended:
December 31, 2014		132,258		194,154
December 31, 2015		126,751		177,515
December 31, 2016		120,311		165,528
December 31, 2017		114,183		154,685
Five years ended:
December 31, 2022		502,819		639,948
December 31, 2027		396,110		452,156
December 31, 2032		283,899		290,129
December 31, 2037		149,835		149,612
December 31, 2042		51,437		42,639
December 31, 2047		15,846		14,828
December 31, 2052		3,639		4,692
December 31, 2057		92		297
Total	$	1,993,926	$	2,453,413

(1) The future premiums expected to be collected and future premiums expected to be earned, net of reinsurance disclosed in the above table relate to the discounted premium receivable asset and unearned premium liability recorded on Ambac’s balance sheet. The use of contractual lives for many bond types which do not have homogeneous pools of underlying collateral is required in the calculation of the premium receivable as described above, which results in a higher premium receivable balance than if expected lives were considered. If installment paying policies are retired early premiums reflected in the premium receivable asset and amounts reported in the above table for such policies may not be collected in the future.

Loss and Loss Expense Reserves:

A loss reserve is recorded on the balance sheet on a policy-by-policy basis for the excess of: (a) the present value of expected net cash flows required to be paid under an insurance contract, over (b) the UPR for that contract. Below is the loss reserve roll-forward, net of subrogation recoverable and reinsurance for the three months ended March 31, 2013 and the year ended December 31, 2012:

	Three Months Ended March  31, 2013			Year Ended December 31, 2012
Beginning balance of loss and loss expense reserves, net of subrogation recoverable and reinsurance	$	5,974,731		$	6,230,780
Changes in the loss and loss expense reserves due to:
Current year:
Establishment of new loss and loss expense reserves, gross of RMBS subrogation and net of reinsurance		4,083			464,058
Paid claims and loss expenses, net of subrogation and reinsurance		(58	)		(20,765	)
Establishment of RMBS subrogation recoveries, net of reinsurance		(188	)		—
Total current year		3,837			443,293
Prior years:
Change in previously established loss and loss expense reserves, gross of RMBS subrogation and net of reinsurance		(129,090	)		72,700
Paid claims and loss expenses, net of subrogation and reinsurance		12,365			(944,860	)
Change in previously established RMBS subrogation recoveries, net of reinsurance		34,617			172,818
Total prior years		(82,108	)		(699,342	)
Net change in loss and loss expense reserves		(78,271	)		(256,049	)
Ending loss and loss expense reserves, net of subrogation recoverable and reinsurance	$	5,896,460		$	5,974,731

The positive development in loss reserves established in prior years for the three months ended March 31, 2013 was primarily due to the strengthening of collateral supporting sub-prime RMBS exposures which resulted in lower expected ultimate losses and lower expected subrogation recoveries related to representation and warranty breaches (“RMBS subrogation recoveries”) on insured RMBS securitizations.

The change in net loss and loss expense reserves of ($78,271) and ($256,049) for the three months ended March 31, 2013 and year ended December 31, 2012, respectively, are included in loss and loss expenses in the Consolidated Statement of Total Comprehensive Income. Loss expense reserves are established for surveillance, legal and other mitigation expenses associated with adversely classified credits. Total net loss expense reserves, included in the above table, were $134,477 and $136,790 at March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, respectively. Total loss and loss expense of ($51,135) and ($2,320) for the three month periods ended March 31, 2013 and 2012, respectively, are included in loss and loss expenses in the Consolidated Statement of Total Comprehensive Income. During the three month periods ended March 31, 2013 and 2012, respectively, reinsurance recoveries of losses included in loss and loss expenses in the Consolidated Statements of Total Comprehensive Income were $3,881 and $12,518, respectively.

The tables below summarize information related to policies currently included in Ambac’s loss reserves or subrogation recoverable at at March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012. The weighted average risk-free rate used to discount loss reserves at March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012 was 2.2% and 1.6%, respectively.

Surveillance Categories (at March 31, 2013)

	I/SL			IA			II			III			IV			V			Total
Number of policies		13			19			23			100			149			1			305
Remaining weighted-average contract period (in years)		13			19			20			19			7			6			12
Gross insured contractual payments outstanding:
Principal	$	375,901		$	1,720,891		$	1,204,275		$	7,567,920		$	12,001,394		$	47		$	22,870,428
Interest		217,054			1,286,857			535,433			3,574,483			2,421,012			18			8,034,857
Total	$	592,955		$	3,007,748		$	1,739,708		$	11,142,403		$	14,422,406		$	65		$	30,905,285
Gross undiscounted claim liability	$	6,442		$	56,453		$	42,156		$	4,036,278		$	7,973,957		$	65		$	12,115,351
Discount, gross claim liability		(525	)		(4,740	)		(8,465	)		(1,367,508	)		(900,496	)		(2	)		(2,281,736	)
Gross claim liability before all subrogation and before reinsurance	$	5,917		$	51,713		$	33,691		$	2,668,770		$	7,073,461		$	63		$	9,833,615
Less:
Gross RMBS subrogation(1)		—			(93	)		—			(6,417	)		(2,490,885	)		—			(2,497,395	)
Discount, RMBS subrogation		—			1			—			18			10,007			—			10,026
Discounted RMBS subrogation, before reinsurance		—			(92	)		—			(6,399	)		(2,480,878	)		—			(2,487,369	)
Less:
Gross other subrogation(2)		—			—			(20,043	)		(139,834	)		(779,446	)		—			(939,323	)
Discount, other subrogation		—			—			7,644			22,212			36,059			—			65,915
Discounted other subrogation, before reinsurance		—			—			(12,399	)		(117,622	)		(743,387	)		—			(873,408	)
Gross claim liability, net of all subrogation and discounts, before reinsurance	$	5,917		$	51,621		$	21,292		$	2,544,749		$	3,849,196		$	63		$	6,472,838
Less: Unearned premium reserves		(3,931	)		(30,958	)		(10,341	)		(413,644	)		(104,597	)		—			(563,471	)
Plus: Loss adjustment expenses reserves		—			32			3,300			5,593			126,917			—			135,842
Claim liability reported on Balance Sheet, before reinsurance(3)	$	1,986		$	20,695		$	14,251		$	2,136,698		$	3,871,516		$	63		$	6,045,209
Reinsurance recoverable reported on Balance Sheet	$	—		$	2,781		$	2,465		$	137,915		$	17,521		$	—		$	160,682

(1) RMBS subrogation represents Ambac’s estimate of subrogation recoveries from RMBS transaction sponsors for representation and warranty breaches.

(2) Other subrogation represents subrogation, including subrogation from RMBS transactions, other than subrogation as defined in (1) above.

(3) Claim liability reported on the Balance Sheet, before reinsurance is included in the Consolidated Balance Sheets as follows:

Loss and loss expense reserve (net of potential subrogation recoveries of $2,482,302)	$	6,590,216
Subrogation recoverable (includes gross potential recovery of $878,475)		(545,007	)
	$	6,045,209

Surveillance Categories (at December 31, 2012)

	I/SL			IA			II			III			IV			V			Total
Number of policies		14			12			28			114			147			1			316
Remaining weighted-average contract period (in years)		15			21			18			20			8			6			13
Gross insured contractual payments outstanding:
Principal	$	311,157		$	786,998		$	1,245,793		$	9,161,747		$	12,554,628		$	47		$	24,060,370
Interest		166,276			715,129			379,237			4,905,775			3,076,746			20			9,243,183
Total	$	477,433		$	1,502,127		$	1,625,030		$	14,067,522		$	15,631,374		$	67		$	33,303,553
Gross undiscounted claim liability	$	2,135		$	40,898		$	49,521		$	4,051,076		$	7,976,765		$	67		$	12,120,462
Discount, gross claim liability		(219	)		(3,532	)		(3,247	)		(1,342,910	)		(788,720	)		(3	)		(2,138,631	)
Gross claim liability before all subrogation and before reinsurance	$	1,916		$	37,366		$	46,274		$	2,708,166		$	7,188,045		$	64		$	9,981,831
Less:
Gross RMBS subrogation(1)		—			—			—			(16,170	)		(2,544,993	)		—			(2,561,163	)
Discount, RMBS subrogation		—			—			—			312			37,626			—			37,938
Discounted RMBS subrogation, before reinsurance		—			—			—			(15,858	)		(2,507,367	)		—			(2,523,225	)
Less:
Gross other subrogation(2)		—			—			—			(141,012	)		(766,717	)		—			(907,729	)
Discount, other subrogation		—			—			—			21,238			15,711			—			36,949
Discounted other subrogation, before reinsurance		—			—			—			(119,774	)		(751,006	)		—			(870,780	)
Gross claim liability, net of all subrogation and discounts, before reinsurance	$	1,916		$	37,366		$	46,274		$	2,572,534		$	3,929,672		$	64		$	6,587,826
Less: Unearned premium reserves		(1,179	)		(21,626	)		(17,120	)		(450,247	)		(113,622	)		—			(603,794	)
Plus: Loss adjustment expenses reserves	$	—		$	—		$	—		$	—		$	138,108		$	—		$	138,108
Claim liability reported on Balance Sheet, before reinsurance(3)	$	737		$	15,740		$	29,154		$	2,122,287		$	3,954,158		$	64		$	6,122,140
Reinsurance recoverable reported on Balance Sheet	$	—		$	1,078		$	7,085		$	128,333		$	22,590		$	—		$	159,086

(1) RMBS subrogation represents Ambac’s estimate of subrogation recoveries from RMBS transaction sponsors for representation and warranty breaches.

(2) Other subrogation represents subrogation, including subrogation from RMBS transactions, other than subrogation as defined in (1) above.

(3) Claim liability reported on the Balance Sheet, before reinsurance is included in the Consolidated Balance Sheets as follows:

Loss and loss expense reserve (net of potential subrogation recoveries of $2,611,430)	$	6,619,486
Subrogation recoverable (includes gross potential recovery of $782,575)		(497,346	)
	$	6,122,140

Loss and loss expense reserves ceded to reinsurers at March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012 were $148,749 and $147,409, respectively. Amounts were included in reinsurance recoverable on the Consolidated Balance Sheets.

Ambac records estimated subrogation recoveries for breaches of representations and warranties by sponsors of certain RMBS transactions utilizing an Adverse and Random Sample approach. Ambac has recorded RMBS subrogation recoveries of $2,487,369 ($2,460,389 net of reinsurance) and $2,523,225 ($2,497,233 net of reinsurance) at March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, respectively. The balance of RMBS subrogation recoveries and the related claim liabilities, by estimation approach, at March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, are as follows:

	March 31, 2013
Approach	Count		Gross loss reserve before subrogation recoveries		Subrogation recoveries(1) (2)			Gross loss reserve after subrogation recoveries
Adverse samples		29	$	2,424,630	$	(1,483,726	)	$	940,904
Random samples		20		1,015,011		(1,003,643	)		11,368
Totals		49	$	3,439,641	$	(2,487,369	)	$	952,272
	December 31, 2012
Approach	Count		Gross loss reserve before subrogation recoveries		Subrogation recoveries  (1) (2)			Gross loss reserve after subrogation recoveries
Adverse samples		27	$	2,331,878	$	(1,442,817	)	$	889,061
Random samples		22		1,231,466		(1,080,408	)		151,058
Totals		49	$	3,563,344	$	(2,523,225	)	$	1,040,119

(1) The amount of recorded subrogation recoveries related to each securitization is limited to ever-to-date paid losses plus projected future paid losses for each policy. To the extent significant losses have been paid but not yet recovered, the recorded amount of RMBS subrogation recoveries may exceed the expected future claims for a given policy. The net cash inflow for these policies is recorded as a “Subrogation recoverable” asset. For those transactions where the subrogation recovery is less than expected future claims, the net cash outflow for these policies is recorded as a “Loss and loss expense reserve” liability.

(2) The sponsor’s repurchase obligation may differ depending on the terms of the particular transaction and the status of the specific loan, such as whether it is performing or has been liquidated or charged off. The estimated subrogation recovery for these transactions is based primarily on loan level data provided through trustee reports received in the normal course of our surveillance activities or provided by the sponsor. While this data may not include all the components of the sponsor’s contractual repurchase obligation we believe it is the best information available to estimate the subrogation recovery.

Below is the rollforward of RMBS subrogation, by estimation approach, for the period December 31, 2012 through March 31, 2013:

	Random sample			Number of transactions			Adverse sample		Number of transactions		Total
Rollforward:
Discounted RMBS subrogation (gross of reinsurance) at December 31, 2012	$	1,080,408			22		$	1,442,817		27	$	2,523,225
Changes recognized in 2013:
Additional transactions reviewed		—			n/a			—		n/a		—
Additional adverse sample loans reviewed		—			n/a			—		n/a		—
Impact of sponsor actions (1)		(54,195	)		(2	)		—		n/a		(54,195	)
All other changes (2)		(22,570	)		n/a			40,909		2		18,339
Discounted RMBS subrogation (gross of reinsurance) at March 31, 2013	$	1,003,643			20		$	1,483,726		29	$	2,487,369

(1) Sponsor actions include loan repurchases, direct payments to Ambac, and other contributions from sponsors.

(2) Other changes which may impact RMBS subrogation recoveries include changes in actual or projected collateral performance, changes in the creditworthiness of a sponsor, and/or the projected timing of recoveries. For the three months ended March 31, 2013, an additional two transactions were added to the Adverse Sample subrogation population; however, the impacts on RMBS subrogation disclosed in the Adverse Sample column relate to those, as well as other, transactions.