EX-99.09 3 dex9909.htm DISCLOSURE ON HURRICANE KATRINA AS POSTED ON AMBAC'S WEBSITE Disclosure on Hurricane Katrina as posted on Ambac's website

Exhibit 99.09

 

Exposure to Hurricane Katrina

Updated September 30, 2005

 

Included in Table I below is a breakout of Ambac’s Hurricane Katrina loss provision as of September 30, 2005. In determining our loss estimate, our analysis has considered the unprecedented nature of the disaster, including the displacement of the communities’ residents, and the unique aspects of each insured bond, such as the nature of the revenue source, the level of debt service reserves, if any, and other transaction protections. Ambac’s estimate of losses related to the hurricane was made without regard to any potential, federal, state or local government assistance to individual municipalities or institutions. The credit loss estimation process involves the exercise of considerable judgment. Due to the nature of the loss reserve estimate, Ambac’s ultimate actual loss associated with the hurricane may be materially different than the current estimate and thereby may affect future operating results. Ambac will continue to assess the impact of Hurricane Katrina on subsequent periods as more information becomes available to us. As of September 30, 2005, all of the credits included in the provision are classified as Public Finance, however none are healthcare related. Ambac does not have material exposure to credits adversely affected by Hurricane Rita.

 

Table I

 

Ambac’s Loss Estimate Broken Out by Region

September 30, 2005 ($ millions)

 

Region


   # of Issues

   Net Par
Outstanding


   Total Reserve
Estimate


Louisiana

   22    $ 869    $ 75

Mississippi/Alabama

   13      226      17
    
  

  

Total

   35    $ 1,095    $ 92
    
  

  

 

Included in Table II below is information related to Ambac’s Public Finance exposure to FEMA-designated counties (designated for the combined category of individual and public assistance as of 9/9/05) within the three states – Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, broken out by bond type, including our exposure to the region of Greater New Orleans separately. Table III lists Ambac’s exposure to the three New Orleans parishes that make up Greater New Orleans. Table IV lists Ambac’s exposure to investor-owned utilities within all counties of the three affected states. It is too early to determine the effect the storm will have on the underlying credit quality of the Public Finance and IOU exposures within these states. All of the Ambac-insured hospitals in the region are currently up and running.

 

Table II

 

Ambac’s Public Finance Exposure in FEMA-Designated Counties

as of September 30, 2005 ($000)

 

Bond Type


   Alabama

  

Greater

New Orleans


   Other
Louisiana


   Mississippi

   Total

General obligation

   $ 523,928    $ 372,029    $ 354,340    $ 414,334    $ 1,664,631

Leases and tax backed

     92,257      814,789      341,560      36,817      1,285,423

University

     105,573      235,248      126,817      197,241      664,879

Utility

     97,481      —        116,440      56,363      270,284

Transportation

     —        176,342      —        56,997      233,339

Health care

     68,750      —        105,034      13,684      187,468

Other

     —        49,000      675      —        49,675
    

  

  

  

  

Grand Total

   $ 887,988    $ 1,647,407    $ 1,044,866    $ 775,437    $ 4,355,699
    

  

  

  

  

Scheduled D/S due (10/1/05-12/31/05)

     14,276      34,637      44,904      18,629      112,446

Scheduled D/S due (1/1/06-12/31/06)

     86,142      140,797      167,665      68,156      462,759


Table III

 

Ambac’s Public Finance Exposure in Greater New Orleans

Net Par as of September 30, 2005 ($000)

 

Bond Type


   Orleans

   Jefferson

   St. Bernard

   Total

General obligation

   $ 324,314    $ 41,410    $ 6,305    $ 372,029

Leases and tax backed

     368,090      446,698      —        814,789

University

     235,248      —        —        235,248

Utility

     —        —        —        —  

Transportation

     176,342      —        —        176,342

Health care

     —        —        —        —  

Other

     —        49,000      —        49,000
    

  

  

  

Grand Total

   $ 1,103,994    $ 537,108    $ 6,305    $ 1,647,407
    

  

  

  

 

Table IV

 

Ambac’s Investor-Owned Utility Exposure in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi

Net Par as of July 31, 2005 ($000)

 

     Alabama

   Louisiana

   Mississippi

   Total

Investor-owned utilities

   $ 97,955    $ 220,779    $ 109,030    $ 427,764

 

Included within the Tables V and VI below is information related to Ambac’s estimated current exposures to asset-backed bonds collateralized by mortgages on residential homes and manufactured housing located in the FEMA-designated counties and New Orleans. The amounts shown represent the estimated portions of larger, geographically diversified securitizations. Ambac does not have exposure to manufactured housing securitizations in Greater New Orleans. The impact on each transaction will be affected by the concentration of loans within the three states, the level of flood/hurricane or other insurance coverage on impacted homes within the pool and the amount of federal relief provided, if any. It is too early to determine the effect the storm will have on our MBS/MH exposures within these three states.

 

Table V

 

MBS Securitization Pools

(Total Net Par $45.7B)

 

     Net Par ($Millions)

   % Total MBS Net Par

Alabama

   $ 131    0.3

New Orleans

     44    0.1

Other Louisiana

     219    0.5

Mississippi

     156    0.3
    

  

Total

   $ 550    1.1
    

  


Table VI

 

Manufactured Housing Securitization Pools

(Total Net Par = $1.1B)

 

     Net Par ($Millions)

   % Total MH Net Par

Alabama

   $ 10    0.9

Louisiana

     12    1.1

Mississippi

     18    1.7
    

  

Total

   $ 40    3.7