6. FINANCIAL GUARANTEE INSURANCE CONTRACTS

Amounts presented in this Note relate only to Ambac’s non-derivative insurance business for insurance policies issued to beneficiaries, including VIEs, for which we do not consolidate the VIE.

Net Premiums Earned:

Gross premiums are received either upfront (typical of public finance obligations) or in installments (typical of structured finance and international obligations). For premiums received upfront, an unearned premium revenue (“UPR”) liability is established, which is initially recorded as the cash amount received. For installment premium transactions, a premium receivable asset and offsetting UPR liability is initially established in an amount equal to: (i) the present value of future contractual premiums due (the “contractual” method) or (ii) if the assets underlying the insured obligation are homogenous pools which are contractually prepayable, the present value of premiums to be collected over the expected life of the transaction (the “expected” method). An appropriate risk-free rate corresponding to the weighted average life of each policy and currency is used to discount the future premiums contractually due or expected to be collected. For example, U.S. dollar exposures are discounted using U.S. Treasury rates while exposures denominated in a foreign currency are discounted using the appropriate risk-free rate for the respective currency. The weighted average risk-free rate at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, was 2.4% and 2.7%, respectively, and the weighted average period of future premiums used to estimate the premium receivable at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, was 9.1 years and 9.2 years, respectively.

Insured obligations consisting of homogeneous pools for which Ambac uses expected future premiums to estimate the premium receivable and UPR include residential mortgage-backed securities. As prepayment assumptions change for homogenous pool transactions, or if there is an actual prepayment for a “contractual” method installment transaction, the related premium receivable and UPR are adjusted in equal and offsetting amounts with no immediate effect on earnings using new premium cash flows and the then current risk-free rate.

Generally, the priority for the payment of financial guarantee premiums to Ambac, as required by bond indentures of insured structured finance obligations, is senior in the waterfall. Additionally, in connection with the allocation of certain liabilities to the Segregated Account, trustees and other parties are required under the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Plan and related court orders to continue to pay installment premiums, notwithstanding the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings. In evaluating the credit quality of the premium receivables, management evaluates the transaction waterfall structures and the internal ratings of the transactions underlying the premium receivables. Uncollectable premiums are determined on a policy basis and utilize a combination of historical premium collection data in addition to cash flow analysis to determine if an impairment in the related policy's premium receivables exist. As of September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, approximately 26% and 27% of the premium receivables related to transactions with non-investment grade internal ratings, comprised mainly of non-investment grade RMBS, structured insurance, lease securitizations and student loan transactions, which comprised 8%, 6%, 4%, and 3%, of the total premium receivables at September 30, 2016 and 8%, 5%, 5%, and 5% of the total premium receivables at December 31, 2015, respectively. At September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, $10,976 and $15,240 respectively, of premium receivables were deemed uncollectable. Past due premiums on policies insuring non-investment grade obligations amounted to less than $500 at September 30, 2016.

Below is the gross premium receivable roll-forward for the affected periods:



	Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2016			2015
Beginning premium receivable	$	831,575		$	1,000,607
Premium receipts	(60,609		)	(70,940		)
Adjustments for changes in expected and contractual cash flows	(57,932		)	(39,613		)
Accretion of premium receivable discount	14,304			18,795
Changes to uncollectable premiums	4,264			1,978
Other adjustments (including foreign exchange)	(25,374		)	(15,381		)
Ending premium receivable⁽¹⁾	$	706,228		$	895,446


(1)	Gross premium receivable includes premiums to be received in foreign denominated currencies most notably in British Pounds and Euros. At September 30, 2016 and 2015 premium receivables include British Pounds of $195,187 (£150,575) and $253,092 (£167,367), respectively, and Euros of $38,284 (€34,067) and $51,640 (€46,251), respectively.

Similar to gross premiums, premiums ceded to reinsurers are paid either upfront or in installments. Premiums ceded to reinsurers reduce the amount of premiums earned by Ambac from its financial guarantee insurance policies.

When a bond issue insured by Ambac Assurance has been retired, including those retirements due to calls, any remaining UPR is recognized at that time to the extent the financial guarantee contract is legally extinguished, causing accelerated premium revenue. For installment premium paying transactions, the recognition of any remaining UPR is offset by the reduction of the related premium receivable to zero (as it will not be collected as a result of the retirement), which may cause negative accelerated premium revenue. Ambac’s accelerated premium revenue for retired obligations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2016 was $18,174 and $38,231, and the three and nine months ended September 30, 2015 was $28,369 and $64,862, respectively. Certain obligations insured by Ambac have been legally defeased whereby government securities are purchased by the issuer with the proceeds of a new bond issuance, or less frequently with other funds of the issuer, and held in escrow. The principal and interest received from the escrowed securities are then used to retire the Ambac-insured obligations at a future date either to their maturity date (a refunding) or a specified call date (a pre-refunding). Ambac has evaluated the provisions in policies issued on legally defeased obligations and determined those insurance policies have not been legally extinguished. For policies with refunding securities, premium revenue recognition is not impacted as the escrowed maturity date is the same as the previous legal maturity date. For policies with pre-refunding securities, the maturity date of the pre-refunded security has been shortened from its previous legal maturity. Although premium revenue recognition has not been accelerated in the period of the pre-refunding, it results in an increase in the rate at which the policy's remaining UPR is to be recognized.

The effect of reinsurance on premiums written and earned for the respective periods was as follows:



	Three Months Ended September 30,
	2016					2015
	Written			Earned		Written			Earned
Direct	$	(10,543	)	$	59,096	$	(8,710	)	$	77,982
Assumed	—			21		—			22
Ceded	(1,526		)	5,899		(105		)	6,469
Net premiums	$	(9,017	)	$	53,218	$	(8,605	)	$	71,535



	Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2016					2015
	Written			Earned		Written			Earned
Direct	$	(39,364	)	$	161,058	$	(18,840	)	$	214,787
Assumed	—			64		—			66
Ceded	(8,425		)	13,702		(882		)	16,721
Net premiums	$	(30,939	)	$	147,420	$	(17,958	)	$	198,132

The table below summarizes the future gross undiscounted premiums to be collected and future premiums earned, net of reinsurance at September 30, 2016:



	Future premiums to be collected ⁽¹⁾		Future premiums to be earned net of reinsurance ⁽¹⁾
Three months ended:
December 31, 2016	$	17,213	$	29,942
Twelve months ended:
December 31, 2017	67,650		96,399
December 31, 2018	63,131		77,484
December 31, 2019	59,548		71,357
December 31, 2020	56,542		67,017
Five years ended:
December 31, 2025	231,529		269,853
December 31, 2030	186,809		186,311
December 31, 2035	121,623		109,372
December 31, 2040	41,618		40,087
December 31, 2045	18,852		17,219
December 31, 2050	7,151		7,785
December 31, 2055	601		1,298
Total	$	872,267	$	974,124

(1)

Future premiums to be collected are undiscounted and are used to derive the discounted premium receivable asset recorded on Ambac's balance sheet. Future premiums to be earned, net of reinsurance relate to the unearned premiums liability and deferred ceded premium asset recorded on Ambac’s balance sheet. The use of contractual lives for many bond types which do not have homogeneous pools of underlying collateral is required in the calculation of the premium receivable, as further described in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Principles in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in Ambac's Annual Report on Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2015. This results in a different premium receivable balance than if expected lives were considered. If installment paying policies are retired or prepay early, premiums reflected in the premium receivable asset and amounts reported in the above table for such policies may not be collected. Future premiums to be earned also considers the use of contractual lives for many bond types which do not have homogeneous pools of underlying collateral, which may result in different unearned premium than if expected lives were considered. If those bonds types are retired early, premium earnings may be negative in the period of call or refinancing.

Loss and Loss Expense Reserves:

The loss and loss expense reserve (“loss reserve”) policy for financial guarantee insurance relates only to Ambac’s non-derivative insurance business for insurance policies issued to beneficiaries, including VIEs, for which we do not consolidate the VIE. Losses and loss expenses are based upon estimates of the ultimate aggregate losses inherent in the non-derivative financial guarantee portfolio as of the reporting date. A loss reserve is recorded on the balance sheet on a policy-by-policy basis. Loss reserve components of an insurance policy include unpaid claims and the present value ("PV") of expected net cash flows required to be paid under an insurance contract, further described below:

•

Unpaid claims represent the sum of (i) claims presented and not yet paid for policies allocated to the Segregated Account, including Deferred Amounts and (ii) accrued interest on Deferred Amounts as required by the amended Segregated Account Rehabilitation Plan that became effective on June 12, 2014. Refer to Note 1. Background and Business Description in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in Ambac's Annual Report on Form 10-K/A for further discussion of the amended Segregated Account Rehabilitation Plan. Unpaid claims are measured based on the cost of settling the claims, which is principal plus accrued interest.

•

The PV of expected net cash flows represents the PV of expected cash outflows less the PV of expected cash inflows. The PV of expected net cash flows are impacted by: (i) expected future claims to be paid under an insurance contract, including the impact of potential settlement outcomes upon future installment premiums, (ii) expected recoveries from contractual breaches of RMBS representations and warranties by transaction sponsors, (iii) excess spread within the underlying transaction's cash flow structure, and (iv) other subrogation recoveries. Expected receipts from third parties within the underlying transaction's cash flow structure relating to contractual breaches in non-RMBS securitizations may also reduce expected future claims. Ambac’s approach to resolving disputes involving contractual breaches by transaction sponsors or other third parties has included negotiations and/or pursuing litigation. Ambac does not include potential recoveries attributed solely to fraudulent inducement claims in our estimate of subrogation recoveries, since any remedies under such claims would be non-contractual.

Net cash outflow policies represent contracts where the sum of unpaid claims plus the PV of expected cash outflows are greater than the PV of expected cash inflows. For such policies, a “Loss and loss expense reserves” liability is recorded for the sum of: (i) unpaid claims plus (ii) the excess of the PV of expected net cash outflows over the unearned premium revenue. Net cash inflow policies represent contracts where losses have been paid, but not yet recovered, such that the PV of expected cash inflows are greater than the sum of unpaid claims plus the PV of expected cash outflows. For such policies, a “Subrogation recoverable” asset is recorded for the difference between (i) the PV of expected net cash inflows and (ii) unpaid claims.

The approaches used to estimate expected future claims and expected future recoveries considers the likelihood of all possible outcomes. The evaluation process for determining expected losses is subject to certain estimates and judgments based on our assumptions regarding the probability of default by the issuer of the insured security, probability of settlement outcomes (which may include commutation settlements, refinancing and/or other settlement outcomes) and expected severity of credits for each insurance contract. Ambac’s loss reserves are based on management’s on-going review of the financial guarantee credit portfolio. Below are the components of the Loss and loss expense reserves liability and the Subrogation recoverable asset at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015:



	Unpaid Claims				Present Value of Expected Net Cash Flows
Balance Sheet Line Item	Claims		Accrued Interest		Claims and Loss Expenses		Recoveries			Unearned Premium Revenue			Gross Loss and Loss Expense Reserves
September 30, 2016:
Loss and loss expense reserves	$	2,392,674	$	490,099	$	2,772,357	$	(1,290,553	)	$	(157,042	)	$	4,207,535
Subrogation recoverable	616,987		127,810		96,406		(1,544,824		)	—			(703,621		)
Totals	$	3,009,661	$	617,909	$	2,868,763	$	(2,835,377	)	$	(157,042	)	$	3,503,914

December 31, 2015:
Loss and loss expense reserves	$	2,138,952	$	349,668	$	3,265,349	$	(1,476,276	)	$	(189,587	)	$	4,088,106
Subrogation recoverable	828,802		141,349		207,674		(2,407,118		)	—			(1,229,293		)
Totals	$	2,967,754	$	491,017	$	3,473,023	$	(3,883,394	)	$	(189,587	)	$	2,858,813

Below is the loss and loss expense reserve roll-forward, net of subrogation recoverable and reinsurance, for the affected periods:



	Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2016			2015
Beginning gross loss and loss expense reserves	$	2,858,813		$	3,798,733
Less reinsurance on loss and loss expense reserves	44,059			100,355
Beginning balance of net loss and loss expense reserves	$	2,814,754		$	3,698,378
Changes in the loss and loss expense reserves due to:
Current year:
Establishment of new loss and loss expense reserves, gross of RMBS subrogation and net of reinsurance	11,033			1,404
Claim and loss expense (payments) recoveries, net of subrogation and reinsurance	(2,056		)	—
Total current year	8,977			1,404
Prior years:
Change in previously established loss and loss expense reserves, gross of RMBS subrogation and net of reinsurance	(207,615		)	(414,642		)
Claim and loss expense (payments) recoveries, net of subrogation and reinsurance	950,810			(61,740		)
(Increase) decrease in previously established RMBS subrogation recoveries, net of reinsurance	(87,310		)	(31,744		)
Total prior years	655,885			(508,126		)
Net change in net loss and loss expense reserves	664,862			(506,722		)
Ending net loss and loss expense reserves	3,479,616			3,191,656
Add reinsurance on loss and loss expense reserves ⁽¹⁾	24,298			63,657
Ending gross loss and loss expense reserves ⁽²⁾	$	3,503,914		$	3,255,313


(1)	Reinsurance recoverable reported on the Balance Sheet also includes reinsurance recoverables (payables) of previously presented loss and loss expenses of $143 and $4,662 as of September 30, 2016 and 2015, respectively.


(2)	Includes Euro denominated gross loss and loss expense reserves of $17,029 (€15,153) and $16,094 (€14,415) at September 30, 2016 and 2015, respectively.

The increase in loss and loss expense reserves established in prior years for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 was primarily due to the receipt of RMBS subrogation recoverables, the receipt of recoveries related to an omnibus settlement with investors in Countrywide securitizations, increased loss expenses, interest accrued on Deferred Amounts and UPR amortization. Offsetting this increase in loss and loss expense reserves was positive loss development primarily due to the impact of lower interest rates, executed commutations in the student loan insured portfolio, and claim payments.

The decrease in loss and loss expense reserves established in prior years for the nine months ended September 30, 2015 was primarily due to the impact of commutations in the student loan portfolio and reduced future claims for both the Ambac UK and RMBS portfolios partially offset by negative development in certain public finance transactions and interest accrued on Deferred Amounts.

The net change in net loss and loss expense reserves are included in losses and loss expenses in the Consolidated Statements of Total Comprehensive Income (Loss). Reinsurance recoveries of losses included in losses and loss expenses in the Consolidated Statements of Total Comprehensive Income (Loss) were an expense of $4,383 and $11,990 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2016 and an expense of $6,907 and $30,727 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2015, respectively.

The tables below summarize information related to policies currently included in Ambac’s loss and loss expense reserves or subrogation recoverable at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015. Gross par exposures include capital appreciation bonds which are reported at the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy. The weighted average risk-free rate used to discount loss reserves at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015 was 1.8% and 2.4%, respectively.



Surveillance Categories as of September 30, 2016
	I/SL			IA			II			III			IV			V			Total
Number of policies	32			25			21			47			168			3			296
Remaining weighted-average contract period (in years)	9			14			28			18			15			6			16
Gross insured contractual payments outstanding:
Principal	$	1,780,294		$	541,278		$	1,743,119		$	1,992,587		$	8,197,140		$	49,247		$	14,303,665
Interest	733,068			152,233			6,804,123			1,389,838			2,354,765			15,422			11,449,449
Total	$	2,513,362		$	693,511		$	8,547,242		$	3,382,425		$	10,551,905		$	64,669		$	25,753,114
Gross undiscounted claim liability ⁽¹⁾	$	6,798		$	6,349		$	183,255		$	847,307		$	6,134,180		$	64,669		$	7,242,558
Discount, gross claim liability	(387		)	(475		)	(88,544		)	(186,037		)	(550,510		)	(4,028		)	(829,981		)
Gross claim liability before all subrogation and before reinsurance	$	6,411		$	5,874		$	94,711		$	661,270		$	5,583,670		$	60,641		$	6,412,577
Less:
Gross RMBS subrogation⁽²⁾	—			—			—			—			(1,936,829		)	—			(1,936,829		)
Discount, RMBS subrogation	—			—			—			—			13,573			—			13,573
Discounted RMBS subrogation, before reinsurance	—			—			—			—			(1,923,256		)	—			(1,923,256		)
Less:
Gross other subrogation⁽³⁾	—			—			(8,968		)	(226,073		)	(836,767		)	(12,938		)	(1,084,746		)
Discount, other subrogation	—			—			2,198			59,125			108,342			2,960			172,625
Discounted other subrogation, before reinsurance	—			—			(6,770		)	(166,948		)	(728,425		)	(9,978		)	(912,121		)
Gross claim liability, net of all subrogation and discounts, before reinsurance	$	6,411		$	5,874		$	87,941		$	494,322		$	2,931,989		$	50,663		$	3,577,200
Less: Unearned premium revenue	(3,774		)	(2,255		)	(46,411		)	(38,390		)	(65,811		)	(401		)	(157,042		)
Plus: Loss expense reserves	8,977			160			572			15,761			58,286			—			83,756
Gross loss and loss expense reserves	$	11,614		$	3,779		$	42,102		$	471,693		$	2,924,464		$	50,262		$	3,503,914
Reinsurance recoverable reported on Balance Sheet ⁽⁴⁾	$	699		$	946		$	177		$	39,241		$	(16,622	)	$	—		$	24,441


(1)	Gross undiscounted claim liability includes unpaid claims, including accrued interest on Deferred Amounts, on policies allocated to the Segregated Account and Ambac's estimate of expected future claims.


(2)	RMBS subrogation represents Ambac’s estimate of subrogation recoveries from RMBS transaction sponsors for representation and warranty ("R&W") breaches.


(3)	Other subrogation primarily represents subrogation related to excess spread and other contractual cash flows on public finance and structured finance transactions, including RMBS.


(4)	Reinsurance recoverable reported on Balance Sheet includes reinsurance recoverables of $24,298 related to future loss and loss expenses and $143 related to presented loss and loss expenses.



Surveillance Categories as of December 31, 2015
	I/SL			IA			II			III			IV			V			Total
Number of policies	33			14			23			63			157			3			293
Remaining weighted-average contract period (in years)	9			17			26			19			13			6			15
Gross insured contractual payments outstanding:
Principal	$	1,830,549		$	263,288		$	1,912,237		$	2,972,615		$	8,942,730		$	54,590		$	15,976,009
Interest	724,940			107,624			6,834,538			1,792,525			2,391,523			16,791			11,867,941
Total	$	2,555,489		$	370,912		$	8,746,775		$	4,765,140		$	11,334,253		$	71,381		$	27,843,950
Gross undiscounted claim liability ⁽¹⁾	$	6,188		$	5,632		$	173,930		$	1,595,525		$	6,339,537		$	71,381		$	8,192,193
Discount, gross claim liability	(515		)	(652		)	(96,218		)	(458,805		)	(770,694		)	(6,779		)	(1,333,663		)
Gross claim liability before all subrogation and before reinsurance	$	5,673		$	4,980		$	77,712		$	1,136,720		$	5,568,843		$	64,602		$	6,858,530
Less:
Gross RMBS subrogation ⁽²⁾	—			—			—			—			(2,841,291		)	—			(2,841,291		)
Discount, RMBS subrogation	—			—			—			—			11,716			—			11,716
Discounted RMBS subrogation, before reinsurance	—			—			—			—			(2,829,575		)	—			(2,829,575		)
Less:
Gross other subrogation ⁽³⁾	—			—			(12,937		)	(526,957		)	(835,078		)	(13,098		)	(1,388,070		)
Discount, other subrogation	—			—			3,961			198,643			127,669			3,978			334,251
Discounted other subrogation, before reinsurance	—			—			(8,976		)	(328,314		)	(707,409		)	(9,120		)	(1,053,819		)
Gross claim liability, net of all subrogation and discounts, before reinsurance	$	5,673		$	4,980		$	68,736		$	808,406		$	2,031,859		$	55,482		$	2,975,136
Less: Unearned premium revenue	(3,360		)	(1,796		)	(48,871		)	(63,257		)	(71,848		)	(455		)	(189,587		)
Plus: Loss expense reserves	—			66			629			15,090			57,479			—			73,264
Gross loss and loss expense reserves	$	2,313		$	3,250		$	20,494		$	760,239		$	2,017,490		$	55,027		$	2,858,813
Reinsurance recoverable reported on Balance Sheet⁽⁴⁾	$	642		$	880		$	85		$	59,503		$	(17,111	)	$	—		$	43,999


(1)	Gross undiscounted claim liability includes unpaid claims, including accrued interest on Deferred Amounts, on policies allocated to the Segregated Account and Ambac's estimate of expected future claims.


(2)	RMBS subrogation represents Ambac’s estimate of subrogation recoveries from RMBS transaction sponsors for R&W breaches.


(3)	Other subrogation primarily represents subrogation related to excess spread and other contractual cash flows on public finance and structured finance transactions, including RMBS.


(4)	Reinsurance recoverable reported on Balance Sheet includes reinsurance recoverables of $44,059 related to future loss and loss expenses and $(60) related to presented loss and loss expenses.

Ambac records estimated subrogation recoveries for breaches of representations and warranties (R&W) by sponsors of certain RMBS transactions. For a discussion of the Random Sample approach utilized to estimate R&W subrogation recoveries, see Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included Part II, Item 8 in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2015. R&W subrogation may include estimates of potential sponsor settlements, but have not been subject to a sampling approach. However, such estimates are not material to Ambac’s financial results and therefore are included in the Random Sample section of this table.

Ambac has recorded R&W subrogation recoveries of $1,923,256 ($1,894,680 net of reinsurance) and $2,829,575 ($2,800,149 net of reinsurance) at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively. The balance of R&W subrogation recoveries and the related loss reserves, using the Random Sample estimation approach, at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, are as follows:



Random Sample Approach	Gross loss reserves before subrogation recoveries ⁽¹⁾		Subrogation recoveries ⁽²⁾⁽³⁾			Gross loss reserves after subrogation recoveries
At September 30, 2016	$	1,364,835	$	(1,923,256	)	$	(558,421	)

At December 31, 2015	$	1,850,804	$	(2,829,575	)	$	(978,771	)


(1)	Includes unpaid RMBS claims, including accrued interest on Deferred Amounts, on policies allocated to the Segregated Account.

(2)

The amount of recorded subrogation recoveries related to each securitization is limited to ever-to-date paid and unpaid losses plus the present value of expected cash flows for each policy. To the extent losses have been paid but not yet fully recovered, the recorded amount of R&W subrogation recoveries may exceed the sum of the unpaid claims and the present value of expected cash flows for a given policy. The net cash inflow for these policies is recorded as a “Subrogation recoverable” asset. For those transactions where the subrogation recovery is less than the sum of unpaid claims and the present value of expected cash flows, the net cash outflow for these policies is recorded as a “Loss and loss expense reserves” liability.

(3)

The sponsor’s repurchase obligation may differ depending on the terms of the particular transaction and the status of the specific loan, such as whether it is performing or has been liquidated or charged off. The estimated subrogation recovery for these transactions is based primarily on loan level data provided through trustee reports received in the normal course of our surveillance activities or provided by the sponsor. While this data may not include all the components of the sponsor’s contractual repurchase obligation we believe it is the best information available to estimate the subrogation recovery.

Below is the rollforward of R&W subrogation, by random sample estimation approach, for the affected periods:



	Nine Months Ended September 30,
	2016			2015
Discounted R&W subrogation (gross of reinsurance) at beginning of period	$	2,829,575		$	2,523,540
Changes recognized during the period:
Impact of sponsor actions ⁽¹⁾	(995,000		)	—
All other changes ⁽²⁾	88,681			31,921
Discounted R&W subrogation (gross of reinsurance) at end of period	$	1,923,256		$	2,555,461


(1)	Sponsor actions include loan repurchases, direct payments to Ambac and other contributions.

(2)

All other changes which may impact R&W subrogation recoveries include changes in actual or projected collateral performance, changes in the creditworthiness of a sponsor and/or the projected timing of recoveries. All other changes may also include estimates of potential sponsor settlements that may not have been subject to a sampling approach or have been executed but the settlement amounts have not yet been received. Those that have not been subject to a sampling approach are not material to Ambac’s financial results and therefore are included in the Random Sample column of this table.

Our ability to realize R&W subrogation recoveries is subject to significant uncertainty, including risks inherent in litigation, collectability of such amounts from counterparties (and/or their respective parents and affiliates), timing of receipt of any such recoveries, intervention by the Rehabilitator or OCI, which could impede our ability to take actions required to realize such recoveries, and uncertainty inherent in the assumptions used in estimating such recoveries.

Insurance intangible asset:

The insurance intangible amortization expense is included in insurance intangible amortization on the Consolidated Statements of Total Comprehensive Income (Loss). For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2016, the insurance intangible amortization expense was $44,553 and $134,456, respectively, and for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2015, the insurance intangible amortization was $39,680 and $115,200, respectively. As of September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, the gross carrying value of the insurance intangible asset was $1,560,132 and $1,626,566, respectively. Accumulated amortization of the insurance intangible asset was $537,267 and $414,454, as of September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively, resulting in a net insurance intangible asset of $1,022,865 and $1,212,112, respectively.

The estimated future amortization expense for the net insurance intangible asset is as follows:



	2016		2017		2018		2019		2020		Thereafter
Amortization expense ⁽¹⁾	$	26,750	$	96,523	$	83,807	$	75,292	$	69,421	$	671,072


(1)	Future amortization considers the use of contractual lives for many bond types which do not have homogeneous pools of underlying collateral. Actual maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay certain obligations. If those bonds types are retired early, amortization expense may differ in the period of call or refinancing.