7. INSURANCE CLAIM RESERVES

Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves were as follows:


(at December 31, in millions)	2015		2014
Property-casualty	$	48,272	$	49,824
Accident and health		23		26

Total	$	48,295	$	49,850

The following table presents a reconciliation of beginning and ending property casualty reserve balances for claims and claim adjustment expenses:


(at and for the year ended December 31, in millions)	2015			2014			2013
Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at beginning of year	$	49,824		$	50,865		$	50,888
Less reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses		8,788			9,280			10,254

Net reserves at beginning of year		41,036			41,585			40,634

Estimated claims and claim adjustment expenses for claims arising in the current year		14,412			14,621			14,060
Estimated decrease in claims and claim adjustment expenses for claims arising in prior years		(897	)		(957	)		(944	)

Total increases		13,515			13,664			13,116

Claims and claim adjustment expense payments for claims arising in:
Current year		5,666			5,828			5,485
Prior years		8,669			8,099			8,477

Total payments		14,335			13,927			13,962

Acquisitions(1)		2			—			1,792
Unrealized foreign exchange (gain) loss		(395	)		(286	)		5

Net reserves at end of year		39,823			41,036			41,585
Plus reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses		8,449			8,788			9,280

Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at end of year	$	48,272		$	49,824		$	50,865

(1): Amount in 2015 represents acquired net claims and claim adjustment expense reserves of Travelers Participações em Seguros Brasil S.A. at October 1, 2015. Amount in 2013 represents acquired net claims and claim adjustment expense reserves of Dominion at November 1, 2013. Dominion's gross reserves on that date were $2,144 million. Dominion's reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses on that date were $352 million.

Gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2015 decreased by $1.55 billion from December 31, 2014, primarily reflecting the impact of (i) payments related to operations in runoff, including a $579 million payment related to the settlement of the Asbestos Direct Action Litigation as described in more detail in note 16, (ii) net favorable prior year reserve development and (iii) changes in foreign currency exchange rates. Gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2014 decreased by $1.04 billion from December 31, 2013, primarily reflecting the impact of (i) net favorable prior year reserve development and (ii) payments related to operations in runoff.

Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses at December 31, 2015 decreased by $339 million from December 31, 2014, primarily reflecting the impact of cash collections in 2015. Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses at December 31, 2014 declined by $492 million from December 31, 2013, reflecting the impacts of (i) net favorable prior year reserve development, (ii) cash collections, (iii) commutation agreements, as well as (iv) a slightly lower level of reinsurance purchased in 2014.

Prior Year Reserve Development

The following disclosures regarding reserve development are on a "net of reinsurance" basis.

2015.

In 2015, estimated claims and claim adjustment expenses incurred included $897 million of net favorable development for claims arising in prior years, including $941 million of net favorable prior year reserve development impacting the Company's results of operations and $51 million of accretion of discount.

Business and International Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2015 totaled $405 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in (i) the general liability product line (excluding increases to asbestos and environmental reserves discussed below), for both primary and excess coverages for accident years 2005 through 2013, reflecting a more favorable legal environment than the Company previously expected, (ii) the workers' compensation line of business for accident years 2006 and prior, (iii) the property product line related to catastrophe losses for accident years 2011, 2012 and 2014 and non-catastrophe losses for accident years 2013 and 2014 and (iv) the Company's operations in Canada and at Lloyd's. These factors contributing to net favorable prior year reserve development in 2015 were partially offset by $224 million and $72 million increases to asbestos and environmental reserves, respectively, which are discussed in further detail in the "Asbestos and Environmental Reserves" section below.

Bond & Specialty Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2015 totaled $258 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the fidelity and surety product line for accident years 2008 through 2014, which was partially driven by a reduction in outstanding exposures related to the financial crisis that commenced in 2007.

Personal Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2015 totaled $278 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in (i) the Homeowners and Other product line for liability coverages for accident years 2011 through 2014, for non-catastrophe weather-related losses and non-weather-related losses for accident year 2014 and (ii) the Automobile product line for liability coverages for accident years 2012 through 2014.

2014.

In 2014, estimated claims and claim adjustment expenses incurred included $957 million of net favorable development for claims arising in prior years, including $941 million of net favorable prior year reserve development impacting the Company's results of operations and $50 million of accretion of discount.

Business and International Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2014 totaled $322 million, primarily driven by (i) better than expected loss experience in the general liability product line (excluding increases to asbestos and environmental reserves discussed below), primarily related to excess coverages for accident years 2008 through 2012, reflecting a more favorable legal environment than the Company previously expected, (ii) a $162 million benefit resulting from better than expected loss experience related to, and the commutation of reinsurance treaties associated with, a workers' compensation reinsurance pool for accident years 1996 and prior, (iii) better than expected loss experience in the property product line for accident years 2010 through 2013, including catastrophe losses from Storm Sandy for accident year 2012 and (iv) better than expected loss experience in the commercial auto product line for accident years 2011 and 2012. These factors contributing to net favorable prior year reserve development in 2014 were partially offset by (i) $250 million and $87 million increases to asbestos and environmental reserves, respectively, which are discussed in further detail in the "Asbestos and Environmental Reserves" section below, (ii) an increase in unallocated loss adjustment expense reserves of $77 million for interest awarded as part of damages pursuant to a court decision in the third quarter of 2014 related to a legal matter, which is discussed in more detail in the "Settlement of Asbestos Direct Action Litigation" section of note 16 and (iii) higher than expected loss experience for liability coverages in the commercial multi-peril product line for accident years 2010 through 2013.

Bond & Specialty Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2014 totaled $450 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the contract surety product line for accident years 2012 and prior.

Personal Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2014 totaled $169 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the Homeowners and Other product line for non-catastrophe weather-related losses for accident year 2013 and catastrophe losses for accident years 2011 through 2013.

2013.

In 2013, estimated claims and claim adjustment expenses incurred included $944 million of net favorable development for claims arising in prior years, including $840 million of net favorable prior year reserve development impacting the Company's results of operations and $48 million of accretion of discount.

Business and International Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2013 totaled $399 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in (i) the general liability product line for excess coverages for accident years 2012 and prior (excluding increases to asbestos and environmental reserves discussed below), reflecting a more favorable legal environment than the Company previously expected, (ii) the property product line related to both catastrophe and non-catastrophe losses for accident years 2010 through 2012, (iii) the workers' compensation line of business (which was largely offset by a $42 million charge that was precipitated by legislation in New York enacted during the first quarter of 2013 related to the New York Fund for Reopened Cases for workers' compensation) and (iv) the surety line of business in Canada and the marine line of business in the Company's operations at Lloyd's. These factors contributing to net favorable prior year reserve development in 2013 were partially offset by $190 million and $65 million increases to asbestos and environmental reserves, respectively, which are discussed in further detail in the "Asbestos and Environmental Reserves" section below and by higher than expected loss experience in the public and product liability line of business in the United Kingdom.

Bond & Specialty Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2013 totaled $232 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the contract surety product line for accident years 2010 and prior.

Personal Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2013 totaled $209 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the Homeowners and Other product line for catastrophe losses incurred in 2012, and non-catastrophe weather-related losses and non-weather-related losses for accident years 2012 and 2011.

Asbestos and Environmental Reserves

At December 31, 2015 and 2014, the Company's claims and claim adjustment expense reserves included $2.17 billion and $2.70 billion, respectively, for asbestos and environmental-related claims, net of reinsurance.

It is difficult to estimate the reserves for asbestos and environmental-related claims due to the vagaries of court coverage decisions, plaintiffs' expanded theories of liability, the risks inherent in complex litigation and other uncertainties, including, without limitation, those which are set forth below.

Asbestos Reserves. Because each policyholder presents different liability and coverage issues, the Company generally reviews the exposure presented by each policyholder at least annually. Among the factors which the Company may consider in the course of this review are: available insurance coverage, including the role of any umbrella or excess insurance the Company has issued to the policyholder; limits and deductibles; an analysis of the policyholder's potential liability; the jurisdictions involved; past and anticipated future claim activity and loss development on pending claims; past settlement values of similar claims; allocated claim adjustment expense; potential role of other insurance; the role, if any, of non-asbestos claims or potential non-asbestos claims in any resolution process; and applicable coverage defenses or determinations, if any, including the determination as to whether or not an asbestos claim is a products/completed operation claim subject to an aggregate limit and the available coverage, if any, for that claim.

In the third quarter of 2015, the Company completed its annual in-depth asbestos claim review, including a review of active policyholders and litigation cases for potential product and "non-product" liability, and noted the continuation of the following trends:

•

continued high level of litigation activity in certain jurisdictions involving individuals alleging serious asbestos-related illness, primarily involving mesothelioma claims;

•

while overall payment patterns have been generally stable, there has been an increase in severity for certain policyholders due to the continued high level of litigation activity; and

•

continued moderate level of asbestos-related bankruptcy activity.

While the Company believes that over the past several years there has been a reduction in the volatility associated with the Company's overall asbestos exposure, there nonetheless remains a high degree of uncertainty with respect to future exposure from asbestos claims.

In the Home Office and Field Office category, which accounts for the vast majority of policyholders with active asbestos-related claims, both the number of policyholders tendering asbestos claims for the first time and the number of policyholders with open asbestos claims declined when compared with 2014. Gross asbestos payments in this category were essentially unchanged when compared with 2014, while net asbestos-related payments increased in 2015 due to significant reinsurance billings relating to one policyholder in 2014. Payments on behalf of policyholders in these categories continue to be influenced by the high level of litigation activity in a limited number of jurisdictions where individuals alleging serious asbestos-related injury, primarily mesothelioma, continue to target defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation.

The Company's quarterly asbestos reserve reviews include an analysis of exposure and claim payment patterns by policyholder category, as well as recent settlements, policyholder bankruptcies, judicial rulings and legislative actions. The Company also analyzes developing payment patterns among policyholders in the Home Office and Field Office, and Assumed Reinsurance and Other categories as well as projected reinsurance billings and recoveries. In addition, the Company reviews its historical gross and net loss and expense paid experience, year-by-year, to assess any emerging trends, fluctuations, or characteristics suggested by the aggregate paid activity. Conventional actuarial methods are not utilized to establish asbestos reserves nor have the Company's evaluations resulted in any way of determining a meaningful average asbestos defense or indemnity payment.

The completion of these reviews and analyses in 2015, 2014 and 2013 resulted in $224 million, $250 million and $190 million increases, respectively, in the Company's net asbestos reserves. In each year, the reserve increases were primarily driven by increases in the Company's estimate of projected settlement and defense costs related to a broad number of policyholders in the Home Office category due to a higher level of litigation activity surrounding mesothelioma claims than previously anticipated. In addition, the reserve increase in 2013 also reflected higher projected payments on assumed reinsurance accounts. The increase in the estimate of projected settlement and defense costs resulted from payment trends that continue to be higher than previously anticipated due to the impact of the current litigation environment discussed above. Notwithstanding these trends, the Company's overall view of the underlying asbestos environment is essentially unchanged from recent periods and there remains a high degree of uncertainty with respect to future exposure to asbestos claims.

Net asbestos paid loss and loss expenses in 2015, 2014 and 2013 were $770 million, $242 million and $218 million, respectively. Net payments in 2015 included the payment of the $502 million settlement amounts related to the Settlement of Asbestos Direct Action Litigation as described in more detail in note 16. Approximately 69%, 8% and 1% of total net paid losses in 2015, 2014 and 2013, respectively, related to policyholders with whom the Company had entered into settlement agreements limiting the Company's liability.

Environmental Reserves. In establishing environmental reserves, the Company evaluates the exposure presented by each policyholder and the anticipated cost of resolution, if any. In the course of this analysis, the Company generally considers the probable liability, available coverage and relevant judicial interpretations. In addition, the Company considers the many variables presented, such as: the nature of the alleged activities of the policyholder at each site; the number of sites; the total number of potentially responsible parties at each site; the nature of the alleged environmental harm and the corresponding remedy at each site; the nature of government enforcement activities at each site; the ownership and general use of each site; the overall nature of the insurance relationship between the Company and the policyholder, including the role of any umbrella or excess insurance the Company has issued to the policyholder; the involvement of other insurers; the potential for other available coverage, including the number of years of coverage; the role, if any, of non-environmental claims or potential non-environmental claims in any resolution process; and the applicable law in each jurisdiction. The evaluation of the exposure presented by a policyholder can change as information concerning that policyholder and the many variables presented is developed. Conventional actuarial methods are not used to estimate these reserves.

The Company continues to receive notices from policyholders tendering claims for the first time, frequently under policies issued prior to the mid-1980s. These policyholders continue to present smaller exposures, have fewer sites and are lower tier defendants. Further, in many instances, clean-up costs have been reduced because regulatory agencies are willing to accept risk-based site analyses and more efficient clean-up technologies. Over the past several years, the Company has experienced generally favorable trends in the number of new policyholders tendering environmental claims for the first time and in the number of pending declaratory judgment actions relating to environmental matters. However, the degree to which those favorable trends have continued has been less than anticipated. In addition, reserve development on existing environmental claims has been greater than anticipated. As a result of these factors, in 2015, 2014 and 2013, the Company increased its net environmental reserves by $72 million, $87 million and $65 million, respectively.

Asbestos and Environmental Reserves. As a result of the processes and procedures discussed above, management believes that the reserves carried for asbestos and environmental claims are appropriately established based upon known facts, current law and management's judgment. However, the uncertainties surrounding the final resolution of these claims continue, and it is difficult to determine the ultimate exposure for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. As a result, these reserves are subject to revision as new information becomes available and as claims develop. The continuing uncertainties include, without limitation, the risks and lack of predictability inherent in complex litigation, any impact from the bankruptcy protection sought by various asbestos producers and other asbestos defendants, a further increase or decrease in the cost to resolve, and/or the number of, asbestos and environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated, the emergence of a greater number of asbestos claims than anticipated as a result of extended life expectancies resulting from medical advances and lifestyle improvements, the role of any umbrella or excess policies the Company has issued, the resolution or adjudication of disputes pertaining to the amount of available coverage for asbestos and environmental claims in a manner inconsistent with the Company's previous assessment of these claims, the number and outcome of direct actions against the Company, future developments pertaining to the Company's ability to recover reinsurance for asbestos and environmental claims and the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers. In addition, uncertainties arise from the insolvency or bankruptcy of policyholders and other defendants. It is also not possible to predict changes in the legal, regulatory and legislative environment and their impact on the future development of asbestos and environmental claims. This environment could be affected by changes in applicable legislation and future court and regulatory decisions and interpretations, including the outcome of legal challenges to legislative and/or judicial reforms establishing medical criteria for the pursuit of asbestos claims. It is also difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of complex coverage disputes until settlement negotiations near completion and significant legal questions are resolved or, failing settlement, until the dispute is adjudicated. This is particularly the case with policyholders in bankruptcy where negotiations often involve a large number of claimants and other parties and require court approval to be effective. As part of its continuing analysis of asbestos and environmental reserves, the Company continues to study the implications of these and other developments.

Because of the uncertainties set forth above, additional liabilities may arise for amounts in excess of the Company's current reserves. In addition, the Company's estimate of claims and claim adjustment expenses may change. These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, cannot now be reasonably estimated and could result in income statement charges that could be material to the Company's operating results in future periods.

Catastrophe Exposure

The Company has geographic exposure to catastrophe losses, which can be caused by a variety of events, including, among others, hurricanes, tornadoes and other windstorms, earthquakes, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and other naturally-occurring events, such as solar flares. Catastrophes can also result from terrorist attacks and other intentionally destructive acts including those involving nuclear, biological, chemical, radiological, cyber-attacks, explosions and infrastructure failures. The incidence and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable. The extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of both the total amount of insured exposure in the area affected by the event and the severity of the event. Most catastrophes are restricted to small geographic areas; however, hurricanes and earthquakes may produce significant damage in larger areas, especially those that are heavily populated. The Company generally seeks to mitigate its exposure to catastrophes through individual risk selection and the purchase of catastrophe reinsurance.

There are also risks which impact the estimation of ultimate costs for catastrophes. For example, the estimation of reserves related to hurricanes can be affected by the inability of the Company and its insureds to access portions of the impacted areas, the complexity of factors contributing to the losses, the legal and regulatory uncertainties and the nature of the information available to establish the reserves. Complex factors include, but are not limited to: determining whether damage was caused by flooding versus wind; evaluating general liability and pollution exposures; estimating additional living expenses; the impact of demand surge; the potential impact of changing climate conditions, including higher frequency and severity of weather-related events; infrastructure disruption; fraud; the effect of mold damage and business income interruption costs; and reinsurance collectibility. The timing of a catastrophe's occurrence, such as at or near the end of a reporting period, can also affect the information available to the Company in estimating reserves for that reporting period. The estimates related to catastrophes are adjusted as actual claims emerge.