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Insurance Claim Reserves
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2024
Insurance Loss Reserves [Abstract]  
Insurance Claim Reserves INSURANCE CLAIM RESERVES
Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves were as follows:
(at December 31, in millions)20242023
Property-casualty$64,088 $61,621 
Accident and health5 
Total$64,093 $61,627 
The following table presents a reconciliation of beginning and ending property casualty reserve balances for claims and claim adjustment expenses:
(at and for the year ended December 31, in millions)202420232022
Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at beginning of year$61,621 $58,643 $56,897 
Less reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses7,817 7,790 8,209 
Net reserves at beginning of year53,804 50,853 48,688 
Estimated claims and claim adjustment expenses for claims arising in the current year
27,508 26,159 23,308 
Estimated decrease in claims and claim adjustment expenses for claims arising in prior years(548)(38)(537)
Total increases26,960 26,121 22,771 
Claims and claim adjustment expense payments for claims arising in:
Current year10,924 10,852 9,406 
Prior years13,227 12,424 10,945 
Total payments24,151 23,276 20,351 
Unrealized foreign exchange (gain) loss(194)106 (255)
Net reserves at end of year56,419 53,804 50,853 
Plus reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses7,669 7,817 7,790 
Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at end of year$64,088 $61,621 $58,643 
Gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2024 increased by $2.47 billion over December 31, 2023, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) catastrophe losses in 2024, (ii) higher volumes of insured exposures and (iii) loss cost trends for the current accident year, partially offset by (iv) claim payments made during 2024 and (v) net favorable prior year reserve development. Gross claims and claim adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2023 increased by $2.98 billion over December 31, 2022, primarily reflecting the impacts of (i) catastrophe losses in 2023, (ii) higher volumes of insured exposures and (iii) loss cost trends for the current accident year, partially offset by (iv) claim payments made during 2023 and (v) net favorable prior year reserve development.
Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses at December 31, 2024 decreased by $148 million over December 31, 2023, primarily reflecting a decrease in structured settlements and recoverables from mandatory pools and associations, partially offset by the impact of catastrophe losses. Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses at December 31, 2023 increased by $27 million over December 31, 2022, primarily reflecting the impact of catastrophe losses in 2023 and a higher level of recoverables from mandatory pools and associations, partially offset by cash collections and a decrease in structured settlements.
Included in the claims and claim adjustment expense reserves are reserves for long-term disability and annuity claim payments, primarily arising from workers’ compensation insurance and workers’ compensation excess insurance policies, that are discounted to the present value of the estimated future payments.  The discount rates used were a range of 3.5% to 5.0% at both December 31, 2024 and 2023.  Total reserves net of the discount were $2.65 billion and $2.68 billion, and the related amount of discount was $1.07 billion and $1.10 billion, at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively.  Accretion of the discount is reported as part of “claims and claim adjustment expenses” in the consolidated statement of income and was $44 million, $45 million and $46 million for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022.
Prior Year Reserve Development
The following disclosures regarding reserve development are on a “net of reinsurance” basis.
2024
In 2024, estimated claims and claim adjustment expenses incurred included $548 million of net favorable development for claims arising in prior years, including $709 million of net favorable prior year reserve development and $44 million of accretion of discount that impacted the Company’s results of operations.
Business Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 totaled $90 million, primarily driven by (i) better than expected loss experience in the domestic operations’ workers’ compensation product line for multiple accident years, partially offset by (ii) higher than expected loss experience in the general liability product line (excluding asbestos) for recent accident years, (iii) an addition to asbestos reserves of $242 million and (iv) additions to other reserves related to run-off operations.
Bond & Specialty Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 totaled $129 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the domestic operations’ fidelity and surety product lines for multiple accident years.
Personal Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2024 totaled $490 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the domestic operations’ homeowners and other and automobile product lines for recent accident years.
2023
In 2023, estimated claims and claim adjustment expenses incurred included $38 million of net favorable development for claims arising in prior years, including $143 million of net favorable prior year reserve development and $45 million of accretion of discount that impacted the Company’s results of operations.
Business Insurance.  Net unfavorable prior year reserve development in 2023 totaled $289 million, primarily driven by (i) higher than expected loss experience in the domestic operations’ general liability product line (excluding asbestos) for multiple accident years, including additions to reserves attributable to childhood sexual molestation and environmental claims in the Company’s run-off operations, (ii) an addition to asbestos reserves of $284 million and (iii) higher than expected loss experience in the domestic operations’ commercial automobile product line for recent accident years, partially offset by (iv) better than expected loss experience in the domestic operations’ workers’ compensation product line for multiple accident years.
Bond & Specialty Insurance.  Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2023 totaled $285 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the domestic operations’ fidelity and surety product lines and in the general liability product line for management liability coverages for recent accident years.
Personal Insurance.  Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2023 totaled $147 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the domestic operations' homeowners and other product line for recent accident years.
2022
In 2022, estimated claims and claim adjustment expenses incurred included $537 million of net favorable development for claims arising in prior years, including $649 million of net favorable prior year reserve development and $46 million of accretion of discount that impacted the Company’s results of operations.
Business Insurance. Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 totaled $381 million, primarily driven by the following:
Workers’ compensation - better than expected loss experience in domestic operations for multiple accident years;
Commercial property - better than expected loss experience in domestic operations for recent accident years; and
Commercial multi-peril (excluding asbestos and environmental) - better than expected loss experience in domestic operations for recent accident years;
Partially offset by:
Asbestos reserves - an addition of $212 million, primarily in the domestic operations’ general liability product line;
General liability (excluding asbestos and environmental) - higher than expected loss experience in domestic operations for excess coverages for multiple accident years, as well as an increase to general liability reserves in the Company’s run-off operations; and
Environmental reserves - an addition primarily in the domestic operations’ general liability product line.
Bond & Specialty Insurance.  Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 totaled $222 million, primarily driven by better than expected loss experience in the domestic operations’ fidelity and surety product lines for recent accident years.
Personal Insurance.  Net favorable prior year reserve development in 2022 totaled $46 million.
Subsequent Event
Beginning in early January 2025, there were a series of severe wildfires that impacted the Pacific Palisades neighborhood and Eaton Canyon area in Southern California. The Company’s preliminary pre-tax estimate of catastrophe losses from these wildfires, including assessments from the California FAIR Plan, and net of estimated recoveries from reinsurance, is $1.7 billion. The catastrophe losses from these wildfires will be reflected in the Company’s first quarter 2025 earnings.
Claims Development
The following is a summary of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves, including certain components, for the Company’s major product lines by reporting segment at December 31, 2024.
(at December 31, 2024, in millions)Net Undiscounted
Claims and Claim
Adjustment Expense
Reserves
Discount
(Net of
Reinsurance)
Subtotal:
Net Claims and Claim Adjustment
Expense Reserves
Reinsurance
Recoverables on
Unpaid Losses (4)
Claims and Claim
Adjustment
Expense
Reserves
Business Insurance
General liability$11,100 $(124)$10,976 $1,140 $12,116 
Commercial property1,266 — 1,266 358 1,624 
Commercial multi-peril5,758 — 5,758 318 6,076 
Commercial automobile4,791 — 4,791 298 5,089 
Workers’ compensation (1)
15,757 (900)14,857 554 15,411 
Bond & Specialty Insurance
General liability2,681 — 2,681 339 3,020 
Fidelity and surety714 — 714 722 
Personal Insurance
Automobile4,302 — 4,302 320 4,622 
Homeowners (excluding Other)2,275 — 2,275 37 2,312 
International - Canada795 — 795 14 809 
Subtotal — claims and allocated claim adjustment expenses for the products presented in the development tables below
49,439 (1,024)48,415 3,386 51,801 
Other insurance contracts (2)
5,036 (4)5,032 1,735 6,767 
Unallocated loss adjustment expense reserves
2,880 — 2,880 17 2,897 
Structured settlements (3)
— — — 2,583 2,583 
Other92 — 92 (52)40 
Total property-casualty57,447 (1,028)56,419 7,669 64,088 
Accident and health— — — 
Total$57,447 $(1,028)$56,419 $7,674 $64,093 
___________________________________________
(1)Net discount amount includes discount of $42 million on reinsurance recoverables for long-term disability and annuity claim payments.
(2)Primarily includes residual market, international (other than operations in Canada within the Personal Insurance segment) and runoff assumed reinsurance business.
(3)Includes structured settlements in cases where the Company did not receive a release from the claimant.
(4)Total reinsurance recoverables (on paid and unpaid losses) at December 31, 2024 were $8.00 billion.
The claim development tables that follow present, by accident year, incurred and cumulative paid claims and allocated claim adjustment expense on a historical basis.  This claim development information is presented on an undiscounted, net of reinsurance basis for ten years, or the number of years for which claims incurred typically remain outstanding if less than ten years. The claim development tables also provide the historical average annual percentage payout of incurred claims by age, net of reinsurance, as supplementary information (identified as unaudited in the tables below). The historical average annual percentage payout for incurred claims is subject to variability due to the impact of both large claim activity and subrogation recoveries, among other items.
Business Insurance
General Liability
(dollars in millions)
For the Years Ended December 31,
2015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Accident YearIBNR Reserves Dec 31, 2024Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
2015$998 $956 $923 $967 $1,057 $1,087 $1,072 $1,082 $1,110 $1,100 $70 22,069 
20161,075 1,058 1,087 1,187 1,204 1,179 1,185 1,183 1,173 99 20,947 
20171,133 1,143 1,196 1,234 1,226 1,243 1,288 1,306 117 19,913 
20181,253 1,312 1,344 1,395 1,477 1,530 1,571 134 20,059 
20191,447 1,486 1,498 1,567 1,706 1,698 216 19,730 
20201,467 1,493 1,470 1,577 1,568 322 19,208 
20211,591 1,589 1,628 1,711 575 15,694 
20221,696 1,736 1,916 851 18,258 
20231,998 2,060 1,432 16,973 
20242,340 2,120 12,629 
Total$16,443 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Accident YearUnaudited
2015$36 $137 $336 $558 $740 $828 $875 $927 $975 $1,002 
201635 191 421 649 758 858 951 991 1,031 
201740 180 378 552 724 914 1,029 1,111 
201842 202 441 709 939 1,146 1,270 Liability for Claims
201951 233 482 816 1,074 1,276 And Allocated Claim
202061 244 458 770 1,031 Adjustment Expenses,
202167 231 493 826 Net of Reinsurance
202281 302 668 
202354 280 2015 -Before
202455 20242015
Total$8,550 $7,893 $3,207 
Total net liability$11,100 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Years12345678910
3.2 %10.9 %16.4 %18.4 %14.3 %11.2 %7.2 %4.8 %3.9 %2.5 %
Commercial Property
(dollars in millions)
For the Years Ended December 31,
20202021202220232024
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claims Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Accident YearIBNR Reserves December 31, 2024Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
2020$1,107 $1,025 $1,005 $993 $983 $33 25,713 
20211,236 1,190 1,190 1,201 (5)25,796 
20221,309 1,369 1,372 28,896 
20231,268 1,244 29,166 
20241,474 201 25,257 
Total$6,274 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim
Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Liability for Claims
Accident YearAnd Allocated Claim
2020$580 $857 $907 $932 $939 Adjustment Expenses,
2021645 1,068 1,141 1,169 Net of Reinsurance
2022624 1,113 1,247 
2023614 1,049 2020 -Before
2024702 20242020
Total$5,106 $1,168 $98 
Total net liability$1,266 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred
Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
 Unaudited
Years12345
 51.0 %33.5 %7.0 %2.5 %0.7 %
Commercial Multi-Peril
(dollars in millions)
For the Years Ended December 31,
2015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Accident YearIBNR Reserves December 31, 2024Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
2015$1,568 $1,625 $1,593 $1,597 $1,606 $1,593 $1,584 $1,571 $1,563 $1,564 $14 73,061 
20161,662 1,623 1,598 1,590 1,601 1,587 1,579 1,578 1,590 19 69,612 
20171,872 1,928 1,956 1,919 1,935 1,943 1,930 1,928 43 72,767 
20181,976 2,114 2,092 2,112 2,121 2,127 2,125 56 80,273 
20192,017 2,087 2,089 2,103 2,103 2,110 78 75,593 
20202,142 2,141 2,126 2,111 2,061 216 70,726 
20212,164 2,097 2,097 2,107 238 58,432 
20222,502 2,533 2,569 436 54,444 
20232,781 2,811 716 52,398 
20242,946 1,255 42,267 
Total$21,811 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Accident YearUnaudited
2015$595 $970 $1,144 $1,310 $1,409 $1,452 $1,489 $1,512 $1,523 $1,535 
2016585 950 1,133 1,278 1,373 1,437 1,477 1,510 1,547 
2017716 1,199 1,388 1,531 1,674 1,763 1,815 1,843 
2018792 1,302 1,500 1,669 1,815 1,917 1,986 Liability for Claims
2019707 1,187 1,423 1,628 1,801 1,916 And Allocated Claim
2020791 1,180 1,373 1,547 1,687 Adjustment Expenses,
2021744 1,206 1,437 1,616 Net of Reinsurance
2022817 1,476 1,752 
2023935 1,603 2015 -Before
2024906 20242015
Total$16,391 $5,420 $338 
Total net liability$5,758 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Years12345678910
35.2 %23.2 %10.5 %8.8 %6.9 %4.3 %2.7 %1.7 %1.5 %0.8 %
Commercial Automobile
(dollars in millions)
For the Years Ended December 31,
20202021202220232024
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claims Adjustment
Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Accident YearIBNR Reserves December 31, 2024Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
2020$1,788 $1,677 $1,621 $1,558 $1,551 $102 143,151 
20211,741 1,757 1,786 1,800 181 149,164 
20221,939 2,040 2,050 365 160,389 
20232,245 2,222 744 166,691 
20242,544 1,493 150,376 
Total$10,167 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim
Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Liability for Claims
Accident YearAnd Allocated Claim
2020$437 $696 $958 $1,192 $1,345 Adjustment Expenses,
2021453 800 1,135 1,405 Net of Reinsurance
2022540 966 1,324 
2023589 1,006 2020 -Before
2024604 20242020
Total$5,684 $4,483 $308 
Total net liability$4,791 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred
Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Years12345
26.0 %18.9 %17.7 %15.0 %9.8 %
Workers’ Compensation
(dollars in millions)
For the Years Ended December 31,
2015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Accident YearIBNR Reserves December 31, 2024Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
2015$2,644 $2,585 $2,505 $2,441 $2,372 $2,279 $2,220 $2,155 $2,097 $2,050 $292 131,266 
20162,768 2,690 2,569 2,473 2,372 2,300 2,235 2,151 2,111 262 132,057 
20172,779 2,681 2,584 2,483 2,439 2,342 2,243 2,190 338 129,935 
20182,744 2,687 2,599 2,503 2,416 2,318 2,245 381 132,125 
20192,680 2,714 2,699 2,632 2,521 2,424 463 126,972 
20202,559 2,530 2,433 2,271 2,152 519 98,066 
20212,356 2,349 2,294 2,237 555 95,805 
20222,293 2,294 2,226 676 103,114 
20232,373 2,365 836 97,620 
20242,352 1,363 86,556 
Total$22,352 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Accident YearUnaudited
2015$430 $893 $1,154 $1,310 $1,411 $1,470 $1,520 $1,547 $1,574 $1,592 
2016421 873 1,118 1,272 1,367 1,433 1,486 1,522 1,553 
2017433 890 1,154 1,314 1,418 1,490 1,544 1,585 
2018440 919 1,169 1,330 1,440 1,516 1,578 Liability for Claims
2019466 951 1,229 1,402 1,518 1,593 And Allocated Claim
2020389 794 1,017 1,164 1,273 Adjustment Expenses,
2021427 848 1,076 1,234 Net of Reinsurance
2022388 830 1,081 
2023444 925 2015 -Before
2024443 20242015
Total$12,857 $9,495 $6,262 
Total net liability$15,757 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Years12345678910
19.2 %20.4 %11.4 %7.2 %4.8 %3.1 %2.6 %1.6 %1.4 %0.9 %
Bond & Specialty Insurance
General Liability
(dollars in millions)
For the Years Ended December 31,
2015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Accident YearIBNR Reserves December 31, 2024Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
2015$528 $524 $486 $437 $395 $414 $413 $414 $407 $411 $4,235 
2016512 511 504 520 514 510 511 509 512 20 4,419 
2017534 517 526 493 524 554 565 582 43 4,623 
2018530 548 585 595 605 612 636 42 4,890 
2019588 653 665 670 662 654 47 5,503 
2020772 753 741 698 684 108 5,501 
2021812 756 683 659 151 5,712 
2022803 763 727 264 5,098 
2023862 888 422 5,730 
20241,001 716 4,772 
Total$6,754 
Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Accident YearUnaudited
2015$38 $141 $234 $310 $338 $348 $381 $383 $387 $392 
201630 141 233 313 378 446 463 472 479 
201738 155 262 340 404 450 488 513 
201849 182 290 383 458 504 559 Liability for Claims
201951 189 323 410 513 554 And Allocated Claim
202052 210 333 447 525 Adjustment Expenses,
202178 210 316 401 Net of Reinsurance
202269 212 335 
202390 274 2015 -Before
2024115 20242015
Total$4,147 $2,607 $74 
Total net liability$2,681 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
Unaudited
Years12345678910
8.8 %21.4 %18.4 %15.0 %11.6 %7.4 %6.6 %2.2 %1.0 %1.2 %
Fidelity and Surety
  
(dollars in millions)
For the Years Ended December 31,  
20202021202220232024IBNR Reserves December 31, 2024Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
Incurred Claims and Allocated Claims Adjustment
Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Accident YearUnaudited 
2020$274 $203 $219 $222 $206 $49 816 
2021 284 172 93 87 28 609 
2022  310 261 187 71 744 
2023   353 374 104 948 
2024    363 311 783 
    Total$1,217   
 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim  
Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance  
Accident YearUnaudited Liability for Claims
      And Allocated Claim
2020$50 $79 $110 $125 $139 Adjustment Expenses,
2021 25 50 57 58 Net of Reinsurance
2022  36 82 99   
2023   96 202 2020 -Before
2024    39 20242020
    Total$537 $680 $34 
     Total net liability$714 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred
Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
 Unaudited
Years12345
 21.8 %23.9 %10.5 %4.3 %6.9 %
Personal Insurance
Automobile
(dollars in millions)
 For the Years Ended December 31,  
 20202021202220232024IBNR Reserves December 31, 2024Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claims Adjustment
Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Accident YearUnaudited 
2020$2,829 $2,764 $2,729 $2,717 $2,695 $26 811,007 
2021 3,716 3,770 3,751 3,724 82 1,000,923 
2022  4,755 4,784 4,729 219 1,131,357 
2023   5,206 5,133 593 1,109,494 
2024    5,179 1,561 945,540 
    Total$21,460   
 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim  
Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance  
Accident YearUnaudited Liability for Claims
      And Allocated Claim
2020$1,571 $2,126 $2,411 $2,561 $2,631 Adjustment Expenses,
2021 2,062 2,981 3,350 3,541 Net of Reinsurance
2022  2,683 3,855 4,278   
2023   2,888 4,068 2020 -Before
2024    2,838 20242020
    Total$17,356 $4,104 $198 
     Total net liability$4,302 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred
Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
 Unaudited
Years12345
 56.3 %23.3 %9.8 %5.3 %2.6 %
Homeowners (excluding Other)
(dollars in millions)
 For the Years Ended December 31,  
 20202021202220232024IBNR Reserves December 31, 2024Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
 Incurred Claims and Allocated Claims Adjustment
Expenses, Net of Reinsurance
Accident YearUnaudited 
2020$3,019 $2,967 $2,909 $2,869 $2,859 $16 221,346 
2021 3,463 3,486 3,444 3,423 22 233,960 
2022  4,277 4,184 4,146 43 235,908 
2023   5,171 5,018 214 267,031 
2024    5,021 1,129 212,797 
    Total$20,467   
 Cumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim  
Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance  
Accident YearUnaudited Liability for Claims
      And Allocated Claim
2020$2,019 $2,673 $2,755 $2,802 $2,823 Adjustment Expenses,
2021 2,334 3,235 3,344 3,372 Net of Reinsurance
2022  2,537 3,828 4,018   
2023   3,369 4,608 2020 -Before
2024    3,402 20242020
    Total$18,223 $2,244 $31 
     Total net liability$2,275 
Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred
Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
 Unaudited
Years12345
 67.0 %26.3 %3.6 %1.2 %0.7 %
International - Canada
(dollars in millions)
 For the Years Ended December 31,IBNR Reserves December 31, 2024Cumulative
 2015201620172018201920202021202220232024Number of
AccidentIncurred Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of ReinsuranceReported
YearUnaudited Claims
2015$325 $325 $324 $321 $322 $322 $317 $317 $318 $318 $(1)44,956 
2016 325 369 369 377 377 376 378 379 380 (2)45,503 
2017  312 343 363 363 363 366 369 363 (3)46,522 
2018   396 416 418 422 425 427 424 (3)50,329 
2019    401 396 415 418 419 424 47,920 
2020     313 301 288 283 281 10 30,038 
2021      314 302 295 292 23 28,054 
2022       349 356 360 35 33,023 
2023        410 434 74 32,737 
2024         462 128 31,642 
         Total$3,738   
AccidentCumulative Paid Claims and Allocated Claim Adjustment Expenses, Net of Reinsurance  
YearUnaudited   
2015$146 $203 $228 $255 $276 $290 $302 $309 $311 $314   
2016 190 255 279 310 331 347 358 364 370   
2017  164 231 267 289 313 332 344 352   
2018   197 275 306 342 370 386 399 Liability for Claims
2019    194 260 293 328 356 380 And Allocated Claim
2020     130 175 196 214 233 Adjustment Expenses,
2021      115 170 197 216 Net of Reinsurance
2022       152 220 248   
2023        184 262 2015 -Before
2024         188 20242015
         Total$2,962 $776 $19 
          Total net liability$795 
 Average Annual Percentage Payout of Incurred Claims by Age, Net of Reinsurance
 Unaudited
Years12345678910
 44.4 %17.7 %8.0 %7.4 %6.6 %4.6 %3.3 %1.9 %1.2 %0.9 %
The incurred and paid amounts have been translated from the local currency to U.S. dollars using the December 31, 2024 spot rate for all years presented in the table above in order to isolate changes in foreign exchange rates from loss development.
Methodology for Estimating Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) Reserves
Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves represent management’s estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred but not yet reported (IBNR) as of the balance sheet date.  Claims and claim adjustment expense reserves do not represent an exact calculation of the liability, but instead represent management estimates, primarily utilizing actuarial expertise and projection methods that develop estimates for the ultimate cost of claims and claim adjustment expenses.  Because the establishment of claims and claim adjustment expense reserves is an inherently uncertain process involving estimates and judgment, currently estimated claims and claim adjustment expense reserves may change.  The Company reflects changes to the reserves in the results of operations in the period the estimates are changed.
Cumulative amounts paid and case reserves held as of the balance sheet date are subtracted from the estimate of the ultimate cost of claims and claim adjustment expenses to derive incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves.  Accordingly, IBNR reserves include the cost of unreported claims, development on known claims and re-opened claims.  This approach to estimating IBNR reserves has been in place for many years, with no material changes in methodology in the past year.
Detailed claim data is typically insufficient to produce a reliable indication of the initial estimate for ultimate claims and claim adjustment expenses for an accident year.  As a result, the initial estimate for an accident year is generally based on an exposure-based method using either the loss ratio projection or the expected loss method.  The loss ratio projection method, which is typically used for guaranteed-cost business, develops an initial estimate of ultimate claims and claim adjustment expenses for an accident year by multiplying earned premium for the accident year by a projected loss ratio.  The projected loss ratio is determined by analyzing prior period experience, and adjusting for loss cost trends, rate level differences, mix of business changes and other known or observed factors influencing the accident year relative to prior accident years.  The expected loss method, which is typically used for loss sensitive business, develops an initial estimate of ultimate claims and claim adjustment expenses for an accident year by analyzing exposures by account.
For prior accident years, the following estimation and analysis methods are principally used by the Company’s actuaries to estimate the ultimate cost of claims and claim adjustment expenses.  These estimation and analysis methods are typically referred to as conventional actuarial methods.
The paid loss development method assumes that the future change (positive or negative) in cumulative paid losses for a given cohort of claims will occur in a stable, predictable pattern from year-to-year, consistent with the pattern observed in past cohorts.
The case incurred development method is the same as the paid loss development method but is based on cumulative case-incurred losses rather than paid losses.
The Bornhuetter-Ferguson method uses an initial estimate of ultimate losses for a given product line reserve component, typically expressed as a ratio to earned premium.  The method assumes that the ratio of additional claim activity to earned premium for that component is relatively stable and predictable over time and that actual claim activity to date is not a credible predictor of further activity for that component.  The method is used most often for more recent accident years where claim data is sparse and/or volatile, with a transition to other methods as the underlying claim data becomes more voluminous and therefore more credible.
The average value analysis combined with the reported claim development method assumes that average claim values are stable and predictable over time for a particular cohort of claims.  It is typically limited to analysis at more granular levels, such as coverage or hazard/peril, where a more homogeneous subset of claims produce a more stable and fairly predictable average value.  The reported claim development method is the same as the paid loss development method but uses changes in cumulative claim counts to produce estimates of ultimate claim counts rather than ultimate dollars.  The resulting estimate of ultimate claim counts by cohort is multiplied by an average value per claim from an average value analysis to obtain estimated ultimate claims and claim adjustment expenses.
While these are the principal methods utilized, the Company’s actuaries have available to them the full range of actuarial methods developed by the casualty actuarial profession.  The Company’s actuaries are also regularly monitoring developments within the profession for advances in existing techniques or the creation of new techniques that might improve current and future estimates.  Most actuarial methods assume that past patterns demonstrated in the data will repeat themselves in the
future.  For certain reserve components where this assumption may not hold, such as asbestos and environmental reserves, conventional actuarial methods are not utilized by the Company.
Methodology for Determining Cumulative Number of Reported Claims
A claim file is created when the Company is notified of an actual demand for payment, notified of an event that may lead to a demand for payment or when it is determined that a demand for payment could possibly lead to a future demand for payment on another coverage on the same policy or on another policy.  Claim files are generally created for a policy at the claimant by coverage level, depending on the particular facts and circumstances of the underlying event.
For Business Insurance and for Personal Insurance, claim file information is summarized such that the Company generally recognizes one count for each policy claim event by internal regulatory line of business, regardless of the number of claimants or coverages involved.  The claims counts are then accumulated and reported by product line.  While the methodology is generally consistent within each segment for the product lines displayed, there are some minor differences between and within segments.  For Bond & Specialty Insurance, the Company generally recognizes one count per coverage per policy claim event and one count per bond per surety claim event.
For purposes of the claims development tables above, claims reported for direct business are counted even if they eventually close with no loss payment, except in the case of (i) deductible business, where the claim is not counted until the case incurred claim estimate is above the deductible and (ii) International-Canada reported claim counts where claims closed with no loss payment are not counted.  Note that claims with zero claim dollars may still generate some level of claim adjustment expenses.  Claim counts for assumed business are included only to the extent such counts are available. The Company generally does not receive claim count information for which the underlying claim activity is handled by others, including pools and associations.  The Company does not generate claim counts for ceded business. The methods used to summarize claim counts have not changed significantly over the time periods reported in the tables above.
The Company cautions against using the summarized claim count information provided in this disclosure in attempting to project ultimate loss payouts by product line. The Company generally finds claim count data to be useful only on a more granular basis than the aggregated basis disclosed in the claim development tables above, as the risks, average values and other dynamics of the claim process can vary materially by the cause of loss and coverage within product line.  For example, in Personal Automobile, the introduction of roadside assistance coverage resulted in a significant increase in claim counts with a low average claim cost.  For this reason the Company varies its approach to, and in many cases the level of aggregation for, counting claims for internal analysis purposes depending on the particular granular analysis performed.
Asbestos and Environmental Reserves
At December 31, 2024 and 2023, the Company’s claims and claim adjustment expense reserves included $1.72 billion and $1.76 billion, respectively, for asbestos and environmental-related claims, net of reinsurance.
It is difficult to estimate the reserves for asbestos and environmental-related claims due to the vagaries of court coverage decisions, plaintiffs’ expanded theories of liability, the risks inherent in complex litigation and other uncertainties, including, without limitation, those which are set forth below.
Asbestos Reserves. Because each policyholder presents different liability and coverage issues, the Company generally conducts an in-depth asbestos claim review on an annual basis, including a review of domestic policyholders with open claims and litigation cases for potential product and “non-product” liability.  Policyholders are identified for this review based upon, among other factors: a combination of past payments and current case reserves in excess of a specified threshold (currently $100,000), perceived level of exposure, number of reported claims, products/completed operations and potential “non-product” exposures, size of policyholder and geographic distribution of products or services sold by the policyholder.
Among the factors the Company may consider in the course of this review are: available insurance coverage, including the role of any umbrella or excess insurance the Company has issued to the policyholder; limits and deductibles; an analysis of the policyholder’s potential liability, including as a result of the bankruptcy of other defendants; the jurisdictions involved, including any trends, judicial rulings or legislative actions in those jurisdictions; past and anticipated future claim activity and loss development on pending claims; past settlement values of similar claims; allocated claim adjustment expense; the potential role of other insurance; the role, if any, of non-asbestos claims or potential non-asbestos claims in any resolution process; and
applicable coverage defenses or determinations, if any, including the determination as to whether or not an asbestos claim is a products/completed operation claim subject to an aggregate limit and the available coverage, if any, for that claim.
The Company also reviews its asbestos reserves quarterly. These reviews include, as appropriate, an analysis of exposure and claim payment patterns by policyholder, as well as recent settlements, policyholder bankruptcies, judicial rulings and legislative actions.  The Company also analyzes developing payment patterns among policyholders and the assumed reinsurance component of reserves, as well as projected reinsurance billings and recoveries. In addition, the Company reviews its historical gross and net loss and expense paid experience, year-by-year, to assess any emerging trends, fluctuations, or characteristics suggested by the aggregate paid activity. Conventional actuarial methods are not utilized to establish asbestos reserves, and the Company’s evaluations have not resulted in a reliable method to determine a meaningful average asbestos defense or indemnity payment.
During the third quarter of 2024, the Company completed its annual in-depth asbestos claim review. While the latest available government data continue to reflect a declining trend in deaths caused by mesothelioma, the number of policyholders with open asbestos claims was relatively flat compared to 2023. Net asbestos paid claims and claim adjustment expenses in 2024, 2023 and 2022 were $282 million, $212 million and $245 million, respectively. Payments on behalf of these policyholders continue to be influenced by the factors described above, including an increase in severity for certain policyholders and a high level of litigation activity in a limited number of jurisdictions where individuals alleging serious asbestos-related injury, primarily mesothelioma, continue to target defendants who were not traditionally sued and/or primary targets of asbestos litigation. The completion of the analyses described above and the annual review in the third quarters of 2024, 2023 and 2022 resulted in $242 million, $284 million and $212 million increases, respectively, to the Company’s net asbestos reserves. In each year, the reserve increases were primarily driven by increases in the Company’s estimate of projected settlement and defense costs related to a broad number of policyholders. The increase in the estimate of projected settlement and defense costs primarily resulted from payment trends that continue to be higher than previously anticipated due to the continued high level of mesothelioma claim filings and the impact of the current litigation environment surrounding those claims discussed above. The 2023 charge also included an additional increase to strengthen the Company’s carried reserve position relative to the range of reasonable estimates.
Over the past decade, the property and casualty insurance industry, including the Company, has experienced net unfavorable prior year reserve development with regard to asbestos reserves, but the Company believes that over that period there has been a reduction in the volatility associated with the Company’s overall asbestos exposure as the overall asbestos environment has evolved from one dominated by exposure to significant litigation risks, particularly coverage disputes relating to policyholders in bankruptcy who were asserting that their claims were not subject to the aggregate limits contained in their policies, to an environment primarily driven by a frequency of litigation related to individuals with mesothelioma. The Company’s overall view of the current underlying asbestos environment is essentially unchanged from recent periods, and there remains a high degree of uncertainty with respect to future exposure to asbestos claims.
Environmental Reserves. In establishing environmental reserves, the Company evaluates the exposure presented by each policyholder and the anticipated cost of resolution, if any. These claims are mainly brought pursuant to various state or federal statutes that require a liable party to undertake or pay for environmental remediation. Liability under these statutes may be joint and several with other responsible parties. In the course of its analysis, the Company generally considers the probable liability, available coverage and relevant judicial interpretations. In addition, the Company considers the many variables presented, such as: the nature of the alleged activities of the policyholder at each site; the number of sites; the total number of potentially responsible parties at each site; the nature of the alleged environmental harm and the corresponding remedy at each site; the nature of government enforcement activities at each site; the ownership and general use of each site; the overall nature of the insurance relationship between the Company and the policyholder, including the role of any umbrella or excess insurance the Company has issued to the policyholder; the involvement of other insurers; the potential for other available coverage, including the number of years of coverage; the role, if any, of non-environmental claims or potential non-environmental claims in any resolution process; and the applicable law in each jurisdiction. The evaluation of the exposure presented by a policyholder can change as information concerning that policyholder and the many variables presented is developed. Conventional actuarial methods are not used to estimate these reserves.
Over the past several years, the Company has experienced generally favorable trends in the number of new policyholders tendering environmental claims for the first time, the number of policyholders with open environmental claims and the number of pending declaratory judgment actions relating to environmental matters. These policyholders continue to present smaller
exposures, are involved in fewer hazardous waste sites and are lower tier defendants than policyholders presenting such claims in the past. Moreover, more efficient clean-up technologies have reduced clean-up costs in many instances depending on the remedy chosen at sites. However, the degree to which those favorable trends have continued has been less than anticipated. In addition, inflationary impacts on consulting and contractor costs, increased involvement of regulatory agencies and costs of their involvement, and the application of more stringent cleanup standards, including on emerging contaminants, has contributed to reserve development on existing environmental claims. Additionally, the costs associated with coverage litigation on environmental matters has been greater than anticipated, driven by claims and legal developments in a limited number of jurisdictions. As a result of these factors, in 2024, 2023 and 2022, the Company increased its net environmental reserves by $78 million, $93 million and $132 million, respectively.
Asbestos and Environmental Reserves. As a result of the processes and procedures discussed above, management believes that the reserves carried for asbestos and environmental claims are appropriately established based upon known facts, current law and management’s judgment. However, the uncertainties surrounding the final resolution of these claims continue, and it is difficult to determine the ultimate exposure for asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation. As a result, these reserves are subject to revision as new information becomes available and as claims develop. Changes in the legal, regulatory and legislative environment may impact the future resolution of asbestos and environmental claims and result in adverse loss reserve development.  The emergence of a greater number of asbestos or environmental claims beyond that which is anticipated may result in adverse loss reserve development. Changes in applicable legislation and future court and regulatory decisions and interpretations, including the outcome of legal challenges to legislative and/or judicial reforms establishing medical criteria for the pursuit of asbestos claims, could affect the settlement of asbestos and environmental claims.  It is also difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of complex coverage disputes until settlement negotiations near completion and significant legal questions are resolved or, failing settlement, until the dispute is adjudicated. This is particularly the case with policyholders in bankruptcy where negotiations often involve a large number of claimants and other parties and require court approval to be effective. As part of its continuing analysis of asbestos and environmental reserves, the Company continues to study the implications of these and other developments.
Because of the uncertainties set forth above, additional liabilities may arise for amounts in excess of the Company’s current reserves.  In addition, the Company’s estimate of claims and claim adjustment expenses may change.  These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, cannot now be reasonably estimated and could result in income statement charges that could be material to the Company’s operating results in future periods.
Catastrophe Exposure
The Company has geographic exposure to catastrophe losses, which include hurricanes, tornadoes and other windstorms, earthquakes, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, solar flares and other naturally-occurring events.  Catastrophes can also result from terrorist attacks and other intentionally destructive acts including those involving cyber events, nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological events, civil unrest, explosions and destruction of infrastructure.  The incidence and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable. The extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of both the total amount of insured exposure in the area affected by the event and the severity of the event. Most catastrophes are restricted to small geographic areas; however, hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires and cyber attacks may produce significant damage in larger areas, especially those that are heavily populated. The Company generally seeks to mitigate its exposure to catastrophes through individual risk selection and the purchase of catastrophe reinsurance.
There are also risks which impact the estimation of ultimate costs for catastrophes.  For example, the estimation of reserves related to hurricanes can be affected by the inability of the Company and its insureds to access portions of the impacted areas, the complexity of factors contributing to the losses, the legal and regulatory uncertainties and the nature of the information available to establish the reserves.  Complex factors include, but are not limited to: determining whether damage was caused by flooding versus wind; evaluating general liability and pollution exposures; estimating additional living expenses; the impact of demand surge; the potential impact of changing climate conditions, including higher frequency and severity of weather-related events; infrastructure disruption; fraud; the effect of mold damage and business income interruption costs; and reinsurance collectibility.  The timing of a catastrophe’s occurrence, such as at or near the end of a reporting period, can also affect the information available to the Company in estimating reserves for that reporting period.  The estimates related to catastrophes are adjusted as actual claims emerge.