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Note 4 - Fair Value Measurements
3 Months Ended
Mar. 31, 2020
Notes to Financial Statements  
Fair Value Disclosures [Text Block]
Note
4
. Fair Value Measurements
 
To estimate the fair values of our financial assets and liabilities, we use valuation approaches within a hierarchy that maximizes the use of observable inputs and minimizes the use of unobservable inputs by requiring that observable inputs be used when available. Observable inputs are inputs that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability based on market data obtained from sources independent of us. Unobservable inputs are inputs that reflect our assumptions about the inputs that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability and are developed based on the best information available in the circumstances. The fair value hierarchy is divided into
three
levels based on the source of inputs as follows:
 
Level
1
– Valuations based on unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets or liabilities that we have the ability to access
Level
2
– Valuations for which all significant inputs are observable, either directly or indirectly, other than Level
1
inputs
Level
3
– Valuations based on inputs that are unobservable and significant to the overall fair value measurement
 
The availability of observable inputs can vary among the various types of financial assets and liabilities. To the extent that the valuation is based on models or inputs that are less observable or unobservable in the market, the determination of fair value requires more judgment. In certain cases, the inputs used for measuring fair value
may
fall into different levels of the fair value hierarchy. In such cases, for financial statement disclosure purposes, the level in the fair value hierarchy within which the fair value measurement is categorized is based on the lowest level of input used that is significant to the overall fair value measurement.
 
We believe the carrying amounts of our cash equivalents, restricted cash, accounts receivable, other current assets, other assets, accounts payable and accrued expenses approximated their fair values as of
March 31, 2020
and
December 31, 2019.
 
We record the contingent consideration liability resulting from our acquisition of MIP at fair value in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (“ASC”)
820
(Topic
820,
Fair Value Measurement
).
 
The following tables summarize each major class of our financial assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of the dates indicated, classified by valuation hierarchy (in thousands):
 
   
 
 
 
 
Fair Value Measurements at March 31, 2020
 
   
 
 
 
 
Quoted Prices
in
Active
   
Significant
Other
   
Significant
 
   
 
 
 
 
Markets for
   
Observable
   
Unobservable
 
   
Balance at
   
Identical Assets
   
Inputs
   
Inputs
 
   
March 31, 2020
   
(Level 1)
   
(Level 2)
   
(Level 3)
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Money market funds
  $
20,744
    $
20,744
    $
-
    $
-
 
Total assets
 
$
20,744
   
$
20,744
   
$
-
   
$
-
 
                                 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Contingent consideration liability
  $
3,600
    $
-
    $
-
    $
3,600
 
Total liabilities
 
$
3,600
   
$
-
   
$
-
   
$
3,600
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
Fair Value Measurements at December 31, 2019
 
   
 
 
 
 
Quoted Prices
in Active
   
Significant
Other
   
Significant
 
   
Balance at 
 
 
Markets for
   
Observable
   
Unobservable
 
   
December 31,
   
Identical Assets
   
Inputs
   
Inputs
 
   
2019
   
(Level 1)
   
(Level 2)
   
(Level 3)
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Money market funds
  $
35,775
    $
35,775
    $
-
    $
-
 
Total assets
 
$
35,775
   
$
35,775
   
$
-
   
$
-
 
                                 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Contingent consideration liability
  $
3,900
    $
-
    $
-
    $
3,900
 
Total liabilities
 
$
3,900
   
$
-
   
$
-
   
$
3,900
 
 
The contingent consideration liability of
$3.6
million as of
March 31, 2020
represents the estimated fair value of the future potential milestone payments to former MIP stockholders (shown in the tables below).
 
Milestone payments due upon
first
commercial sale and/or from proceeds received from license revenue (in thousands):
 
Program
 
Consideration
 
Form of Payment
1095    
5,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
1404    
9,984
 
Cash or Progenics common stock or cash in the case of license revenue
   
$
14,984
 
 
 
Net sales milestone payments due upon
first
achievement of specified net sales target in any single calendar year across all MIP-related programs (in thousands):
 
   
Consideration
 
Form of Payment at Progenics' Option
$30 million
  $
5,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
$60 million
   
5,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
$100 million
   
10,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
$250 million
   
20,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
$500 million
   
30,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
   
$
70,000
 
 
 
We consider this liability a Level
3
instrument (
one
with significant unobservable inputs) in the fair value hierarchy. The estimated fair value was determined based on probability adjusted discounted cash flow and Monte Carlo simulation models that included significant estimates and assumptions pertaining to commercialization events and sales targets. The most significant unobservable inputs are the probabilities of achieving regulatory approval of the development projects and subsequent commercial success.
 
Significant changes in any of the probabilities of success or the probabilities as to the periods in which milestones will be achieved would result in a significantly higher or lower fair value measurement. We record the contingent consideration liability at fair value with changes in estimated fair values recorded in change in contingent consideration liability in our condensed consolidated statements of operations.
 
The following table summarizes quantitative information and assumptions pertaining to the fair value measurement of the Level
3
inputs at
March 31, 2020
and
December 31, 2019 (
in thousands). The decrease in the contingent consideration liability of
$0.3
million during the
three
months ended
March 31, 2020
was primarily due to a decrease in the AZEDRA sales forecasts, partially offset by an increase due to shorter discount period and higher volatility used to calculate the present value of the contingent consideration liability.
 
   
Fair Value at
         
 
 
 
 
   
March 31,
         
 
 
 
 
   
2020
 
Valuation Technique
 
Unobservable Input
 
Assumption
 
Contingent Consideration Liability:
 
 
 
 
       
 
 
 
 
1095 commercialization
  $
400
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
 
 
18%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
 
 
2027
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
 
 
10%
 
 
1404 commercialization
   
200
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
 
 
43%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
 
 2023
-
2035
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
 
 
10%
 
 
Net sales targets
   
3,000
 
Monte-Carlo simulation
 
Probability of success
 
 18%
-
90%
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
 
 
10%
 
 
Total
 
$
3,600
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
Fair Value at
         
 
 
 
 
   
December 31,
         
 
 
 
 
   
2019
 
Valuation Technique
 
Unobservable Input
 
Assumption
 
Contingent Consideration Liability:
 
 
 
 
       
 
 
 
 
1095 commercialization
  $
500
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
 
 
18%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
 
 
2026
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
 
 
10%
 
 
1404 commercialization
   
300
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
 
 
43%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
 
 2022
-
2035
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
 
 
10%
 
 
Net sales targets
   
3,100
 
Monte-Carlo simulation
 
Probability of success
 
 18%
-
90%
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
 
 
10%
 
 
Total
 
$
3,900
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
For those financial instruments with significant Level
3
inputs, the following table summarizes the activities for the periods indicated (in thousands):
 
   
Liability - Contingent Consideration
 
   
Fair Value Measurements Using
 
   
Significant Unobservable Inputs
 
   
(Level 3)
 
   
Three Months Ended March 31,
 
   
2020
   
2019
 
Balance at beginning of period
  $
3,900
    $
11,000
 
Fair value change included in net loss
   
(300
)    
900
 
Balance at end of period
 
$
3,600
   
$
11,900
 
                 
Changes in unrealized gains or losses for the period included in earnings (or changes in net assets) for liabilities held at the end of the reporting period
 
$
(300
)
 
$
900