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Note 4 - Fair Value Measurements
6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2017
Notes to Financial Statements  
Fair Value Disclosures [Text Block]
Note
4.
Fair Value Measurements
 
To estimate the fair values of our financial assets and liabilities, we use valuation approaches within a hierarchy that maximizes the use of observable inputs and minimizes the use of unobservable inputs by requiring that observable inputs be used when available. Observable inputs are inputs that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability based on market data obtained from sources independent of us. Unobservable inputs are inputs that reflect our assumptions about the inputs that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability and are developed based on the best information available in the circumstances. The fair value hierarchy is divided into
three
levels based on the source of inputs as follows:
 
Level
1
– Valuations based on unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets or liabilities that we have the ability to access
Level
2
– Valuations for which all significant inputs are observable, either directly or indirectly, other than Level
1
inputs
Level
3
– Valuations based on inputs that are unobservable and significant to the overall fair value measurement
 
The availability of observable inputs can vary among the various types of financial assets and liabilities. To the extent that the valuation is based on models or inputs that are less observable or unobservable in the market, the determination of fair value requires more judgment. In certain cases, the inputs used for measuring fair value
may
fall into different levels of the fair value hierarchy. In such cases, for financial statement disclosure purposes, the level in the fair value hierarchy within which the fair value measurement is categorized is based on the lowest level of input used that is significant to the overall fair value measurement.
 
We believe the carrying amounts of our cash equivalents, accounts receivable, other current assets, other assets, accounts payable and accrued expenses approximated their fair values as of
June 30, 2017
and
December 31, 2016.
 
We record the contingent consideration liability resulting from our acquisition of Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“MIP”) at fair value in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification (“ASC”)
820
(Topic
820,
Fair Value Measurement
).
 
The following tables summarize each major class of our financial assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of the dates indicated, classified by valuation hierarchy (in thousands):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fair Value Measurements at June 30, 2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quoted Prices in
 
 
Significant Other
 
 
Significant
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Active Markets for
 
 
Observable
 
 
Unobservable
 
 
 
Balance at
 
 
Identical Assets
 
 
Inputs
 
 
Inputs
 
 
 
June 30, 2017
 
 
(Level 1)
 
 
(Level 2)
 
 
(Level 3)
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Money market funds
  $
108,859
    $
108,859
    $
-
    $
-
 
Total assets
 
$
108,859
 
 
$
108,859
 
 
$
-
 
 
$
-
 
                                 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Contingent consideration liability
  $
16,800
    $
-
    $
-
    $
16,800
 
Total liabilities
 
$
16,800
 
 
$
-
 
 
$
-
 
 
$
16,800
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fair Value Measurements at December 31, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quoted Prices in
 
 
Significant Other
 
 
Significant
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Active Markets for
 
 
Observable
 
 
Unobservable
 
 
 
Balance at
 
 
Identical Assets
 
 
Inputs
 
 
Inputs
 
 
 
December 31, 2016
 
 
(Level 1)
 
 
(Level 2)
 
 
(Level 3)
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Money market funds
  $
137,340
    $
137,340
    $
-
    $
-
 
Total assets
 
$
137,340
 
 
$
137,340
 
 
$
-
 
 
$
-
 
                                 
Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Contingent consideration liability
  $
14,200
    $
-
    $
-
    $
14,200
 
Total liabilities
 
$
14,200
 
 
$
-
 
 
$
-
 
 
$
14,200
 
 
The contingent consideration liability of
$16.8
million as of
June 30, 2017
represents the estimated fair value of the future potential milestone payments to former MIP stockholders (shown in the tables below).
 
Milestone payments due upon
first
commercial sale (in thousands):
 
Program
 
 
Consideration
 
Form of Payment at Progenics' Option
 
AZEDRA
    $
8,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
 
1404      
10,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
 
1095      
5,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
 
 
 
 
$
23,000
 
 
 
 
 
Net sales milestone payments due upon
first
achievement of specified net sales target in any single calendar year across all MIP-related programs (in thousands):
 
Calendar Year
Net Sales Level
 
 
Consideration
 
Form of Payment at Progenics' Option
 
$30 million
    $
5,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
 
$60 million
     
5,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
 
$100 million
     
10,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
 
$250 million
     
20,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
 
$500 million
     
30,000
 
Cash or Progenics common stock
 
 
 
 
$
70,000
 
 
 
 
We consider this liability a Level
3
instrument (
one
with significant unobservable inputs) in the fair value hierarchy. The estimated fair value was determined based on probability adjusted discounted cash flow and Monte Carlo simulation models that included significant estimates and assumptions pertaining to commercialization events and sales targets. The most significant unobservable inputs are the probabilities of achieving regulatory approval of the development projects and subsequent commercial success and discount rates.
 
Significant changes in any of the probabilities of success would result in a significantly higher or lower fair value measurement, respectively. Significant changes in the probabilities as to the periods in which milestones will be achieved would result in a significantly lower or higher fair value measurement, respectively. We record the contingent consideration liability at fair value with changes in estimated fair values recorded in change in contingent consideration liability in our condensed consolidated statements of operations.
 
The following table summarizes quantitative information and assumptions pertaining to the fair value measurement of the Level
3
inputs at
June 30, 2017
and
December 31, 2016 (
in thousands). The increase in the contingent consideration liability of
$2.6
million during the
six
months ended
June 30, 2017
was primarily attributable to the higher probability of success of AZEDRA used to calculate the potential milestone payments to former Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals, Inc. stockholders and a reduction in the discount period.
 
 
 
Fair Value at
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
June 30,
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
2017
 
Valuation Technique
 
Unobservable Input
 
Assumption
 
Contingent Consideration Liability:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
AZEDRA commercialization
  $
5,300
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
   
 
72%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
   
 
2018
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
   
 
10%
 
 
1404 commercialization
   
4,900
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
   
 
59%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
   
 
2019
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
   
 
10%
 
 
1095 commercialization
   
400
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
   
 
16%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
   
 
2024
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
   
 
10%
 
 
Net sales targets
   
6,200
 
Monte-Carlo simulation
 
Probability of success
   
16%
-
72%
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
   
 
10%
 
 
Total
 
$
16,800
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fair Value at
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
December 31,
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
2016
 
Valuation Technique
 
Unobservable Input
 
Assumption
 
Contingent Consideration Liability:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
AZEDRA commercialization
  $
3,800
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
   
 
54%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
   
 
2018
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
   
 
10%
 
 
1404 commercialization
   
4,700
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
   
 
59%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
   
 
2019
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
   
 
10%
 
 
1095 commercialization
   
400
 
Probability adjusted discounted
 
Probability of success
   
 
16%
 
 
     
 
 
cash flow model
 
Period of expected milestone achievement
   
 
2024
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
   
 
10%
 
 
Net sales targets
   
5,300
 
Monte-Carlo simulation
 
Probability of success
   
16%
-
59%
 
     
 
 
 
 
Discount rate
   
 
10%
 
 
Total
 
$
14,200
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
For those financial instruments with significant Level
3
inputs, the following tables summarize the activities for the periods indicated:
 
 
 
Liability - Contingent Consideration
 
 
 
Fair Value Measurements Using
 
 
 
Significant Unobservable Inputs
 
 
 
(Level 3)
 
 
 
Three Months Ended June 30,
 
 
Six Months Ended June 30,
 
 
 
2017
 
 
2016
 
 
2017
 
 
2016
 
Balance at beginning of period
  $
16,100
    $
19,000
    $
14,200
    $
18,800
 
Fair value change included in net loss
   
700
     
600
     
2,600
     
800
 
Balance at end of period
 
$
16,800
 
 
$
19,600
 
 
$
16,800
 
 
$
19,600
 
                                 
Changes in unrealized gains or losses for the period
included in earnings (or changes in net assets) for
liabilities held at the end of the reporting period
 
$
700
 
 
$
600
 
 
$
2,600
 
 
$
800