7. REVERSE MORTGAGE LOANS

Reverse mortgage loans are contracts in which a homeowner borrows against the equity in his/her home and receives cash in one lump sum payment, a line of credit, fixed monthly payments for either a specific term or for as long as the homeowner lives in the home, or a combination of these options. Since reverse mortgages are nonrecourse obligations, the loan repayments are generally limited to the sale proceeds of the borrower’s residence and the mortgage balance consists of cash advanced, interest compounded over the life of the loan and some may include a premium which represents a portion of the shared appreciation in the home’s value, if any, or a percentage of the value of the residence.

Our existing investment in reverse mortgages totaled $27.0 million at March 31, 2015. The portfolio consists of 108 loans with an average borrowers’ age of 93 years old and there is currently significant overcollateralization in the portfolio, as the realizable collateral value (the lower of collectable principal and interest, or appraised value and annual broker price opinion of the home) of $50.3 million well exceeds the outstanding book balance at March 31, 2015.

The carrying value of the reverse mortgages is calculated by a proprietary model that uses the income approach as described in FASB ASC 820-10, Fair Value Measurements and Disclosure (ASC 820-10). The model is a present value cash flow model which describes the components of a present value measurement. The model incorporates the projected cash flows of the loans (includes payouts and collections) and then discounts these cash flows using the effective yield required on the life of the portfolio to reduce the net investment to zero at the time the final reverse mortgage contract is liquidated. The inputs to the model reflect our expectations of what other market participants would use in pricing this asset in a current transaction and therefore is consistent with ASC 820 that requires an exit price methodology for determining fair value.

To determine the carrying value of these reverse mortgages as of March 31, 2015, we used a proprietary model and actual cash flow information to estimate future cash flows. There are three main drivers of cash flows; 1) move-out rates, 2) house price appreciation (HPA) forecasts, and 3) internal rate of return.

Move-out rates – The projections incorporate actuarial estimates of contract termination the United States Mortality Rates published by the Office of the Actuary of the United States Bureau of Census in 2014, adjusted for expected prepayments and relocations. During 2014 we updated these mortality tables to the new tables.

House Price Appreciation – Consistent with other reverse mortgage analyses from various market sources, we forecast a 2.5% increase in housing prices during 2015 and a 2.0% increase in the following year and thereafter. We believe this forecast continues to be appropriate given the nature of reverse mortgage collateral and historical under-performance to the broad housing market. Annually, during the fourth quarter, housing price estimates are updated through broker price opinions.

Internal Rate of Return – As of March 31, 2015, the internal rate of return (IRR) of 17.48% was the effective yield required on the life of the portfolio to reduce the net investment to zero at the time the final reverse mortgage contract is liquidated.

As of March 31, 2015, the Company’s actuarially estimated cash payments to reverse mortgagors are as follows:


(in thousands)
Year Ending
Remaining in 2015	$	515
2016		548
2017		438
2018		344
2019		269
Years 2020 - 2024		633
Years 2025 - 2029		130
Years 2030 - 2034		20
Thereafter		2

Total (1)	$	2,899

(1)	This table does not take into consideration cash inflow including payments from mortgagors or payoffs based on contractual terms.

The amount of the contract value that would be forfeited if the Company were not to make cash payments to reverse mortgagors in the future is $6.4 million.

The future cash flows depend on the HPA assumptions. If the future changes in collateral value were assumed to be zero, income would decrease by $623,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2015 with an IRR of 16.20%. If the future changes in collateral value were assumed to be reduced by 1%, income would decrease by $286,000 with an IRR of 16.90%.

The net present value of the projected cash flows depends on the IRR used. If the IRR increased by 1%, the net present value would increase by $570,000. If the IRR decreased by 1%, the net present value would decrease by $561,000.