EX-99.1 2 dex991.htm EDISON INTERNATIONAL'S CITIGROUP INVESTOR MEETING PRESENTATION HANDOUT Edison International's Citigroup Investor Meeting Presentation Handout

Exhibit 99.1

LOGO

 

Business Update

Handout

September 14, 2006


LOGO

 

Forward-Looking Statement

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements reflect Edison International’s current expectations and projections about future events based on Edison International’s knowledge of present facts and circumstances and assumptions about future events and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical or current fact. In this presentation and elsewhere, the words “expects,” “believes,” “anticipates,” “estimates,” “projects,” “intends,” “plans,” “probable,” “may,” “will,” “could,” “would,” “should,” and variations of such words and similar expressions, or discussions of strategy or of plans, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such statements necessarily involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Some of the risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause results to differ, or that otherwise could impact Edison International or its subsidiaries, include but are not limited to:

 

 

the ability of Edison International to meet its financial obligations and to pay dividends on its common stock if its subsidiaries are unable to pay dividends;

 

 

the ability of Southern California Edison (SCE) to recover its costs in a timely manner from its customers through regulated rates;

 

 

decisions and other actions by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and other regulatory authorities and delays in regulatory actions;

 

 

market risks affecting SCE’s energy procurement activities;

 

 

access to capital markets and the cost of capital;

 

 

changes in interest rates, rates of inflation and foreign exchange rates;

 

 

governmental, statutory, regulatory or administrative changes or initiatives affecting the electricity industry, including the market structure rules applicable to each market and environmental regulations that could require additional expenditures or otherwise affect the cost and manner of doing business;

 

 

risks associated with operating nuclear and other power generating facilities, including operating risks, nuclear fuel storage, equipment failure, availability, heat rate and output;

 

 

the availability of labor, equipment and materials;

 

 

the ability to obtain sufficient insurance, including insurance relating to SCE’s nuclear facilities;

 

 

effects of legal proceedings, changes in or interpretations of tax laws, rates or policies, and changes in accounting standards;

 

 

supply and demand for electric capacity and energy, and the resulting prices and dispatch volumes, in the wholesale markets to which MEHC generating units have access;

 

 

the cost and availability of coal, natural gas, and fuel oil, nuclear fuel, and associated transportation; • the cost and availability of emission credits or allowances for emission credits;

 

 

transmission congestion in and to each market area and the resulting differences in prices between delivery points;

 

 

the ability to provide sufficient collateral in support of hedging activities and purchased power and fuel;

 

 

the extent of additional supplies of capacity, energy and ancillary services from current competitors or new market entrants, including the development of new generation facilities and technologies;

 

 

the difficulty of predicting wholesale prices, transmission congestion, energy demand, and other activities in the complex and volatile markets in which MEHC and its subsidiaries participate;

 

 

general political, economic and business conditions;

 

 

weather conditions, natural disasters and other unforeseen events; and

 

 

changes in the fair value of investments and other assets accounted for using fair value accounting.

Additional information about risks and uncertainties, including more detail about the factors described above, is contained in Edison International’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are urged to read such reports and carefully consider the risks, uncertainties and other factors that affect Edison International’s business. Readers also should review future reports filed by Edison International with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and Edison International is not obligated to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements.

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Edison International -Value Drivers

EIX Integrated Platform

SCE Value Drivers

 

Strong customer and load growth

 

Tight reserve margins keep focus on reliability

 

$12 billion, 5-year capital investment program

 

 

58% - Expand and strengthen distribution system

 

 

21% - New transmission for system reliability and renewables

 

 

12% - San Onofre steam generators and other generation

 

 

7% - Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)

 

 

2% - 5 Small Generation Units (“Peakers”)

 

Strengthened regulatory framework

 

 

3-year forward rate-setting

 

 

Cost of Capital

 

 

Procurement cost recovery mechanisms

 

Financial performance

 

 

Rate base CAGR 10% through 2010

EMG Value Drivers

 

Low-cost coal generation portfolio

 

 

EBITDA exceeds $1 billion annually1/2

 

Strong operational and marketing/trading capabilities

 

 

Focus on optimizing and stabilizing merchant margins

 

 

Match duration of hedges (coal, transportation, emissions, forward sales)

 

Effective allocation of cash balances

 

 

Debt reduction

 

 

New generation investments

 

 

Hedging collateral

 

Diversify and grow the generation portfolio

 

 

Focus on development of non-coal projects with long-term contracts

 

 

Renewables

 

 

Thermal, initially in California

 

 

IGCC - Carson Hydrogen project

1.

 

See appendix for non-GAAP reconciliation.

2.

 

Reflects guidance issued on June 29th, 2006. Guidance will not be updated until release of third quarter earnings.

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System Growth

Capital Investment

Regulatory Framework

Southern California Edison (SCE)

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SCE Value Driver – System Growth

System Growth

Capital Investment

Regulatory Framework

Strong customer and load growth keeps statewide focus on the need to expand and strengthen the utility infrastructure

SCE Growth 1

New Meter Connections

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

63,021

63,463

73,204

77,437

83,979

88,321

 

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Peak Demand

MW

26,000

22,000

18,000

14,000

10,000

17,890

18,821

20,136

20,762

21,934

22,889

 

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

SCE’s service territory has

 

 

4 of the 10 fastest growing counties in the nation 2

 

 

5 of the 25 fastest growing cities in the nation 3

New Meter Connections

 

 

Expect to exceed 88,000 in 2006

 

 

360,000 meters added in the past 5 years

Peak Demand

 

 

In July 2006 Peak Demand reached 22,889 MW

 

 

4.4% growth from 2005 peak

 

 

10.2% higher than 2004 peak

1.

 

2006 figures projected for full-year.

2.

 

LA, Riverside, San Bernardino and Orange counties. US Census Bureau data, in terms of population increase between 2000 and 2005.

3.

 

Moreno Valley, Rancho Cucamonga, Irvine, Lancaster and Fontana. US Census Bureau data, in terms of population increase between 2004 and 2005.

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SCE Value Driver – System Growth

System Growth

Capital Investment

Regulatory Framework

SCE to install 5 “black start” peakers by summer 2007

 

 

Initiated in August 2006 at CPUC’s request in response to heat storm and increased demand

 

 

Each of 5 units capable of generating up to 45 MW

 

 

“Black Start” Capable - designed to start within minutes in response to immediate generation needs – and equipped with SCR emissions controls

Peakers to Enhance Grid Reliability

 

 

Expected to increase available supply at peak hours and enhance grid reliability

 

 

Capital investment approximately $250 million – about $100 million in 2006 and $150 million in 2007

 

 

To be installed at existing substations

 

 

Expected to be in-service by August 1, 2007

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SCE Value Driver – System Growth

System Growth

Capital Investment

Regulatory Framework

In July 2006, SCE launched solicitations for renewable power contracts and long-term power contracts for new generation

Renewable Contracts

 

 

10-, 15-, or 20-year contract proposals to be received September 22, 2006

 

 

In 2005, SCE purchased and delivered to customers more than 13 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity generated with renewable energy, more than any U.S. utility

 

 

SCE estimates that more than 16% of the power it delivers this year will come from renewable sources

New Generation Contracts

 

 

CPUC has provided cost recovery assurance

 

 

Soliciting up to 1,500 MW of new IPP generation

 

 

10-year contracts for generation on-line as early as August 2007

 

 

Initial offers expected September 19, 2006

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SCE Value Driver – Capital Investment

System Growth

Capital Investment

Regulatory Framework

SCE cited as industry leader in advanced metering

“SCE has taken an industry leadership position as the first U.S. utility to adopt EPRI’s IntelliGrid Architecture for a system-wide advanced metering deployment.”

Arshad Mansoor, V.P. of Power Delivery & Marketing Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) News Release Palo Alto, CA – August 21, 2006

SCE AMI Phase I selected as “2005-2006 Best AMR Initiative in a North American IOU” by international utility peers.

Utility Planning Network and Automatic Meter Reader Association (UPN-AMRA), August 9, 2006

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SCE Value Driver – Capital Investment

System

 

Growth

Capital

 

Investment

Regulatory

 

Framework

Highlights of SCE’s Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Initiative

AMI Initiative Ahead of Schedule

 

 

Design phase ahead of schedule - expect to be complete by year-end 2006

 

 

Field testing planned to occur January 2007 through June 2008 in 5,000 – 25,000 homes and small businesses subject to CPUC approval

 

 

Full deployment planned July 2008 through June 2012 for about 5 million residential and small commercial customers, one year ahead of initial schedule

 

 

Conceptual capital investment approximately $1.3 billion through deployment

AMI Supports Next Generation of Meters

Advanced meters and related 2-way communication networks can create the opportunity to develop smart connections with customers and create an intelligent grid

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SCE Value Driver – Capital Investment

System

 

Growth

Capital

 

Investment

Regulatory Framework

Benefits of SCE’s AMI Initiative

SCE

 

Supports

 

SCE’s strategy of modernizing its infrastructure

Customers

 

Empowers

 

customers to manage their energy use and cost, and provides new services via smart technologies

 

 

Service Automation - Customers will be able to adjust their usage or choose to have SCE manage this for them automatically

 

 

Other customer choices include cyber security, plug-in hybrids, solar metering and home automation

CAISO

 

*

Better

 

load management helps the grid to operate more efficiently, reducing the risk of power emergencies

*

 

California Independent System Operator

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SCE Value Driver – Capital Investment

System

 

Growth

Capital

 

Investment

Regulatory Framework

 

 

Five-year capital spending increased approximately $1 billion up to $12 billion since August 2006 due to AMI and Peakers

 

 

2006 CPUC GRC authorized approximately $5 billion of investment for 2006-2008

$ Billions

2.8

 

2.6

 

2.6

 

2.4

 

2.4

 

2.3

 

2.1

 

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.0

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

2010

 

Current Forecast by Classification

$ %

Peakers 0.2 2

AMI 0.8 7

Generation 1.5 12

Transmission 2.5 21

Distribution 7.0 58

Total 12.0 100

Current Forecast by Proceeding

$ %

CPUC

 

Rate Cases 8.0 67

FERC

 

Rate Cases 2.5 21

Project

 

Specific 1.5 12

Total

 

12.0 100

In addition to above, possible new transmission for renewable projects

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SCE Value Driver – Capital Investment

System

 

Growth

Capital

 

Investment

Regulatory Framework

 

Capital investment program translates into rate base CAGR of about 10%

 

2009-2010 increase primarily from 2009 GRC, new transmission and SONGS SGR

 

Plan to file 2009 GRC Notice of Intent (NOI) in July 2007

 

Expected increase to 2007- 2010 rate base for peakers and AMI to be filed separately from 2009 GRC

$ Billions

16.3

Rate Base

16.0

 

14.4

 

12.9

 

11.8

 

10.9

 

12.0

 

10.2

 

8.0

4.0

 

2003GRC

 

2006

 

GRC 1 CPUC Approved

2009

 

GRC 1 GRC

0.0

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

2010

 

Growth

 

Rate

6.9%

 

8.3% 9.3% 11.6% 13.2%

AMI and Peakers

1.

 

Includes impact of 2006 CPUC and 2006 FERC GRC Decisions; forecasted authorized rate base for FERC (2007-2010) and CPUC (2009-2010) subject to regulatory approval.

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SCE Value Driver – Regulatory Framework

System

 

Growth

Capital

 

Investment

Regulatory Framework

California’s regulatory framework has been strengthened to support growth, reliability needs and mitigate risks of volatile commodity prices

Rate Base and Operations

 

General Rate Case (GRC), provides three-year forward looking rate-setting mechanism based on forecast spending, has been affirmed twice

 

Recent 2006 GRC Decision

 

 

Approved 97% of 2006-2008 capital request

 

 

Approved 95% of annual operating expense request

 

 

2006 GRC Decision results in increased depreciation providing annual cash flow of $900 million in 2006 growing to $1 billion in 2008

Investors’ Return

 

2006 Cost of Capital (COC) Decision

 

 

48% common equity

 

 

11.6% return on common equity (ROCE)

 

Received final CPUC decision in August 2006, allowing SCE to retain its current COC and ROCE for 2007

Procurement Cost

 

Energy Resources Recovery Account (ERRA) and related Trigger Mechanism provides timely recovery of procurement costs and mitigates energy price exposure (AB 57 protections)

 

January 2006 ERRA Decision increased SCE’s revenue requirement $960 million mitigating substantial increase in natural gas and power prices forecast for 2006

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Low-Cost

 

Coal

Operational/Marketing/

 

Trading Capabilities

Cash

 

Position

Growth

 

Opportunities

Edison Mission Group (EMG)

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EMG – Generation Portfolio

Low-Cost

 

Coal

Operational/Marketing/

 

Trading Capabilities

Cash

 

Position

Growth

 

Opportunities

Midwest

 

Generation

5,613

 

MW coal

305

 

MW gas/oil

Misc. Wind

67 MW

Storm Lake

109 MW

March Point

70 MW

Homer City

1,884 MW

Ambit

40 MW

Big 4, Sunrise & Other

964 MW

San Juan Mesa

90 MW

Wildorado

161 MW

MW

7,537

 

Coal

 

(80%)

1,483

 

1

Gas/Oil

 

(16%)

427

 

2

Wind

 

(4%)

9 Biomass

9,456 Total

Strong operating platform and evolving growth opportunities

1.

 

Includes 180 MW Doga project (EME share 144 MW) located in Turkey which is not shown above.

2.

 

Includes 161 MW under construction.

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EMG – Value Drivers

Low-Cost

 

Coal

Operational/Marketing/

 

Trading Capabilities

Cash

 

Position

Growth

 

Opportunities

 

 

Low-cost coal generation is the key driver to significant EBITDA 1

 

 

$1.18 billion in 2005, $1.09 billion in 2006 and $1.27 billion in 2007

 

 

Strong operational and marketing/trading capabilities

 

 

Effective management of fuel and transportation contracting and environmental costs to protect margins

 

 

Match duration of hedges (coal, transportation, emissions, forward sales)

 

 

Forward Power Sales

 

 

Illinois BGS Auction (winning suppliers to be identified in October )

 

 

3-Year (‘07-’09) 500 MW on-peak sale done without collateral requirements

 

 

RPM Settlement provides potential capacity revenue in 2007 and beyond

 

 

Balance use of cash among continued debt reduction, growth and hedging requirements (cash position 2 at 6/30 - $1.95 billion)

 

 

$1 billion refinancing completed on 6/6 to lower interest costs/extend maturities

 

 

Repay $800 million MEHC Notes in 2008

 

 

Investment in renewables, thermal projects

 

 

Expanded liquidity facilities from $600 million to $1 billion to support hedging

 

 

Expansion of generation portfolio

 

 

Contracted projects with fuel diversity

 

 

Nationwide development of renewable resources

 

 

Thermal/IGCC projects, initially in California

1.

 

See appendix for non-GAAP reconciliation. Earnings guidance was effective as of the date given and will not be updated until third quarter earnings are released.

2.

 

Cash and short-term investments.

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EMG – Wind Portfolio

Development

 

Expertise

RPS

 

Requirements

Development

 

Pipeline

Turbine

 

Commitments

National

 

Wind Portfolio

Wind Project Portfolio

Projects Size (MW) In-service 9 266 Under construction 1 161 Total 10 427 Purchased Turbines 538 Optioned Turbines 130 Total Turbines 668

 

Future wind project pipeline supported by exclusive agreements:

 

 

181 MW in late-stage development 1

 

 

700+ MW in development pipeline 2

 

EME secured 668 MW of wind turbines to support 2006 and 2007 development

 

Projects have long-term PPAs with creditworthy counterparties

 

Accelerated return of cash from tax credits and depreciation

1.

 

Late-stage development: Projects with exclusive development agreements and near final investment decisions.

2.

 

Development Pipeline: Projects with exclusive development agreements and under active investment consideration.

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EMG – California Thermal Generation Opportunities

Recontracting Projects

 

Big 4 projects contract extension (602 MW)

 

 

Kern River - 5-year market-rate contract approved by CPUC in May 2006

 

 

Other Big 4 contracts expire: December 2007 (Sycamore); April 2008 (Watson); May 2009 (Midway-Sunset)

Natural Gas-Fired Generation

 

New natural gas-fired generation (1,000 MW)

 

 

2 project permit applications filed with California Energy Commission (Sun Valley – 500 MW, Walnut Creek – 500 MW)

 

 

Intend to bid into SCE RFO (Sept 2006)

IGCC

 

 

EMG/BP hydrogen power project (500 MW)

 

 

Conducting engineering studies

 

 

Petroleum coke fuel with approximately 90% of CO2 removed and used for enhanced oil recovery

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Performance

Balance Sheet Strength

Growth

Dividends

Shareholder Returns

Year to Date Performance through June 30, 2006

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Edison International - Earnings Performance

Year-to-Date June 30,

Core Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share

(Unaudited)

2006

2005

Change

Southern California Edison Company

$0.84 $0.88 $(0.04)

Edison Mission Group

Mission Energy Holding Company

0.26 0.15 0.11

Edison Capital

0.06 0.22 (0.16)

Edison Mission Group Total

0.32 0.37 (0.05)

EIX (parent) and other

(0.06) (0.06) —  

EIX Consolidated Core Earnings

1.10 1.19 (0.09)

Non-core

 

items

SCE – Generator refund incentive

— 0.01 (0.01)

SCE – Resolution of an outstanding state tax item

0.25 — 0.25

MEHC – Extinguishment of debt

(0.27) (0.05) (0.22)

MEHC – Earnings from discontinued operations

0.24 0.08 0.16

Total non-core items

0.22 0.04 0.18

Total

 

EIX Consolidated Earnings

$1.32

 

$1.23 $0.09

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Edison International – EMG Update

Three months ended June 30, Six months ended June 30,

2006 2005 Change % 2006 2005 Change %

Midwest Generation

Generation (in TWhr) 5.5 5.8 (0.3) -5.2% 12.7 14.2 (1.5) -10.6%

Equivalent Availability 66.0% 62.1% 3.9% 76.4% 71.1% 5.3%

Forced Outage Rate (EFOR) 7.7% 9.6% -1.9% 5.0% 8.7% -3.7%

Average Cost of Fuel ($/MWh) 13.42 12.51 0.91 7.3% 13.14 12.12 1.02 8.4%

Flat Energy Price - Nihub ($/MWh) 39.31 38.34 0.96 2.5% 40.89 39.01 1.88 4.8%

Average Midwest Gen Energy Price ($/MWh) 47.63 41.83 5.80 13.9% 47.09 40.12 6.97 17.4%

Homer City

Generation (in TWhr) 2.9 3.1 (0.2) -6.5% 5.4 6.6 (1.2) -18.2%

Equivalent Availability 74.3% 77.1% -2.8% 73.1% 82.6% -9.5%

Forced Outage Rate 19.9% 3.6% 16.3% 22.8% 5.6% 17.2%

Average Cost of Fuel ($/MWh) 24.13 19.36 4.77 24.6% 24.03 18.65 5.38 28.8%

Flat Energy Price - PJM West Hub ($/MWh) 48.08 47.30 0.78 1.6% 52.25 47.24 5.01 10.6%

Flat Energy Price - HC Busbar ($/MWh) 44.00 44.86 (0.86) -1.9% 47.24 44.54 2.70 6.1%

Flat Energy Price - PJM West Hub minus

HC Busbar ($/MWHr) - Basis 4.08 2.44 1.64 5.01 2.70 2.31

Average Homer City Energy Price ($/MWh) 50.02 42.93 7.09 16.5% 51.43 43.38 8.05 18.6%

Hedge Program status at June 30, 2006

Remainder of

2006 2007 2008

Midwest Generation

Megawatt hours (in TWh) 10.0 16.2 3.1

Average Energy Price ($/MWh) $ 47.61 $ 48.25 $ 66.13 (1)

Percent of Coal Requirements Under Contract 108% 95% 33%

Homer City

Megawatt hours (in TWh) 4.4 7.6 2.4

Average Energy Price ($/MWh) $ 54.07 $ 64.35 $ 66.01

Percent of Coal Requirements Under Contract 99% 97% 39%

(1)

 

Represents on-peak hedges.

Note: Subsequent to June 30, 2006, an agreement was executed to hedge an additional 500 MW of on-peak power from

the Midwest Gen facilities for 2007, 2008 and 2009. 20

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Performance

Balance Sheet Strength

Growth

Dividends

Shareholder Returns

Guidance as of June 29th, 2006

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Edison International - Earnings Guidance

(effective as of June 29th, 2006)

Earnings guidance will not be updated until third quarter earnings are released

Recorded

 

Guidance Core EPS: 2005 2006 2007

 

SCE $1.82 $1.88 $2.02

 

EMG

 

 

MEHC 1.13 1.00 1.31

 

EC 1 0.29 0.14 0.13 EMG Total $1.42 $1.14 $1.44

 

EIX Holding Co. 1 (0.11) (0.11) (0.11) Core $3.13 $2.91 $3.35

Non-Core Items:

 

SCE 2 0.40 0.25 –

 

EMG 3 (0.06) (0.03) –Total $3.47 $3.13 $3.35

Key Factors/Assumptions 2006-2007 SCE

 

DSM incentive benefited 2005 by $0.08

 

2006 CPUC and FERC rate increases and continuation of 11.6% ROCE in 2007 EMG

 

Fuel and emission costs largely hedged

 

Power generation hedge plan complete

 

5/31/2006 forward power prices used for unhedged generation revenue for guidance

 

EMMT earnings contribution $0.33 in 2005; assumption: $0.10 in 2006 4 and $0.04 in 2007

• EC infrastructure gain of $0.16 in 2005 Other

 

Impact on earnings of expensing stock options beginning in 2006: $0.07 in 2006 and in 2007

1. Reflects earnings consolidated on an EMG basis

2.

 

SCE: 2005: 1991-1993 Tax audit settlement - $0.19; FERC 002 Case - $0.17; Generator refunds - $0.04; 2006: Resolution of a state tax issue.

3.

 

EMG: 2005: March Point impairment - ($0.10); Discontinued operations including Lakeland distribution - $0.09; Early debt retirement - ($0.05); 2006: Early debt retirement - ($0.27); Discontinued operations including Lakeland distribution – $0.24.

4.

 

EMMT: Includes earnings of $0.08 through May 31, 2006 and forecast earnings of $0.02 for the remainder of 2006.

See appendix for detailed non-GAAP reconciliation.

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EMG – 2006-2007 Hedge Plan Guidance

(effective as of June 29th, 2006)

Coal

 

Coal

 

Transp.

Emissions

 

Generation

 

Forward

 

Sales

Basis

 

Earnings guidance will not be updated until third quarter earnings are released

Coal Commodity and Transportation

20061 2007 Midwest Gen Expected Coal Burn (Millions Tons) 17.8 17.8 Contracted Coal 2 105% 95% PRB Forward Commodity Price 3 ($/ton) $12.37 $13.54

Fuel

 

Cost, excluding emissions 4 ($/MWh)$13.00 $13.30

Homer City

Expected Coal Burn (Millions Tons) 5.2 5.6 Contracted Coal 2 97% 95% NAPP Forward Commodity Price 3 ($/ton) $42.50 $45.25

Fuel Costs, excluding emissions 4 ($/MWh)$18.50 $17.57

Emission Hedge Position

NOx

 

(Aggregate Credits) 93% 90% SO2 (Aggregate Credits) 94% 76%

10% Price Increase Sensitivities (pre-tax impact)

2006

 

2007

($ million)

 

-

 

(1.2)

 

($/MWh

 

increase)

 

-

 

0.04

($ million)

 

-

 

(1.2)

 

($/MWh

 

increase)

 

-

 

0.09

($ million)

(0.3)

 

(0.4) (1.0) (3.8)

1

 

Full-year 2006.

2

 

Coal contracts based on expected burn and contracted deliveries without regard to inventory levels.

3

 

As of May 31, 2006, excludes transportation.

4

 

Fuel costs, excluding emissions, includes coal and coal transportation costs, natural gas and oil used for startup and limestone cost.

See Assumptions Detail in appendix for additional information.

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EMG – 2006-2007 Hedge Plan Guidance

(effective as of June 29th, 2006)

Coal

 

Coal

 

Transp.

Emissions

 

Generation

 

Forward

 

Sales

Basis

 

Earnings guidance will not be updated until third quarter earnings are released

Remainder of

Hedge

 

Program 20061 2007

Midwest Gen

Expected generation (TWh) 2 18.2 28.8 Volume hedged (TWh) 11.6 16.2 Percent of expected generation 3 63% 56% Average hedge price 3 ($/MWh) $47.68 $48.25 NiHub Flat Price 4 ($/MWh) $44.47 $44.92 Homer City Expected generation (TWH) 2 8.8 14.0 Volume hedged (TWh) 5.2 7.6 Percent of expected generation 3 58% 54% Average hedge price 3/5 ($/MWh) $54.46 $64.35 PJM West Hub Flat Price 4 $58.64 $63.22

($/MWh) Basis

Historic average <1% Midwest Gen Averaged 4% in 2004 and 10% in 2005 Homer City 8.4 TWh basis hedge (4/2006 – 5/2007)

Sensitivities (pre-tax impact)

2006

 

2007 $1/MWh Realized Price Increase Increases Earnings

$ million

6.7

 

12.5

3.7

 

6.4

*

 

Note: This assumes expected generation and other factors remain unchanged

1

 

June 1, 2006 to December 31, 2006. 2006 full year expected generation for Midwest Gen is 28.7 TWh and Homer City is 13.1 TWh.

2

 

Expected generation levels are forecasted amounts and actual levels could differ based on a number of factors including weather, demand for power, unit availability, and system dispatch as addressed in the forward looking statement.

3

 

As of June 26, 2006.

4

 

As of May 31, 2006.

5

 

Hedge price at PJM West Hub. During 2005 and 2004, average market price at PJM West was $6.12 and $1.55 higher than average market price at Homer City Busbar. Without basis hedge, Homer City retains risk in price movements between these locations on hedge position.

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EMG – 2008 Hedge Plan Guidance

(effective as of June 29th, 2006)

Coal

 

Coal

 

Transp.

Emissions

 

Generation

 

Forward

 

Sales

Basis

 

Earnings guidance will not be updated until third quarter earnings are released

Initiated 2008 hedge program. PRB coal transportation contracts are in place through 2011. For 2008, emission credits position is similar to 2007. Additional hedging of commodity price risk is contemplated.

Midwest Gen

Forecast

 

generation 1 (TWh) 29.3

Hedged generation 2 (TWh) 3.1 (10.6%) Average hedge price 2/3 ($/MWh) $66.13 Contracted Coal 33% NiHub Flat Price 4 ($/MWh) 44.89

Homer City

Forecast

 

generation 1 (TWh) 13.7

Hedged generation 2 (TWh) 2.4 (17.5%) Average hedge price 2 ($/MWh) $66.01 Contracted Coal 39% PJM West Hub Flat Price 4 ($/MWh) 61.37

1

 

Expected generation levels are forecasted amounts and actual levels could differ based on a number of factors including weather, demand for power, unit availability, and system dispatch as addressed in the forward looking statement.

2

 

As of June 26, 2006.

3

 

Reflects on-peak hedges.

4

 

As of May 31, 2006.

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Edison International – Strategic Plan Foundation

Performance

Balance Sheet Strength

Growth

Dividends

Shareholder Returns

 

 

Strong utility operating in a large and rapidly growing service territory

Competitive power generation business with large base of low-cost coal assets

Produces

Organic Growth

 

 

Significant long-term earnings and cash flow growth from regulated investments

 

 

Business flexibility for future growth

 

 

Upside earnings potential from competitive generation investments

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Appendix

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Appendix – Non-GAAP Reconciliation

Earnings guidance will not be updated until third quarter earnings are released

Year Ending December 31,

Core Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share

2005 2006 2007 Southern California Edison Company $1.82 $1.88 $2.02 Mission Energy Holding Company 1.13 1.00 1.31 Edison Capital and other 0.29 0.14 0.13 EMG 1.42 1.14 1.44 EIX parent company and other (0.11) (0.11) (0.11) EIX Consolidated Core Earnings 3.13 2.91 3.35

Non-core items

SCE – Regulatory and tax items 0.40 0.25 —MEHC – March Point impairment (0.10) — —MEHC – Early debt retirements (0.05) (0.27) —MEHC – Discontinued operations 1 0.09 0.24 —Total Non-core Items 0.34 0.22 —Total EIX Consolidated Earnings $3.47 $3.13 $3.35

1.

 

Primarily relates to Lakeland Distribution.

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Appendix – EBITDA

(Guidance effective as of June 29th, 2006)

Earnings guidance will not be updated until third quarter earnings are released

Edison Mission Group

($ millions)

2005

 

2006 2007 Actual Outlook Forecast

Net

 

income $442.4 $361.5 $468.8

Add-back (Deduct):

Cumulative

 

effect of change in accounting 1.2 (0.4) -Discontinued operations (29.5) (78.6) -

Income

 

(Loss) from continued operations 414.1 282.5 468.8

Interest expense 435.2 424.4 406.0 Interest income (73.7) (90.0) (62.5) Income taxes (benefits) 162.8 159.4 226.3 Depreciation and amortization 146.8 165.7 189.9

EBITDA

 

1,085.2 942.0 1,228.4

Production tax credits 7.5 16.8 39.5 Discrete items: Loss on lease termination, asset impairment and other charges 7.3—-Impairment of equity method investment 54.9—-Gain on sale of assets—(4.0) -Loss on early extinguishment of debt 24.6 137.7 -

Adjusted

 

EBITDA $1,179.5 $1,092.5 $1,267.9

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SCE Value Driver – Execution

System Growth

Capital Investment

Execution

Regulatory Framework

Dependable Earnings

SCE has made significant strides toward receiving necessary permits and regulatory approvals for major transmission projects

Existing 500kV Future 500kV

NEVADA CALIFORNIA

 

Las Vegas

SCE Eldorado Tehachapi Service

Midway Territory

(PG&E)

Antelope

Palmdale

 

Lugo

Pardee

 

Mohave ARIZONA

Santa

 

Clarita Vincent

Rancho

Sylmar

 

Vista Mira Devers Loma

Palm Phoenix

Los Angeles Serrano Springs

Valley

 

Santa

Ana

 

Palo Verde

San Diego

In Service 2006-2010 Project Name Date (Millions)

DPV1 & DPV2 2006/2009 $ 745 Antelope – Phase 1 2008/2009 $ 245 Rancho Vista 2009 $ 139 Substation Vincent – Mira Loma 2011 $ 122

Renewables

 

Various $ 416 Reliability Various $829 Total $2,496

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Assumption Details

 

 

NAPP, “Northern Appalachian”; PRB, “Powder River Basin”

 

 

Actual future Fuel Costs, excluding emissions, may differ from estimated future fuel costs, excluding emissions due to a number of factors including SO2 adjustments, Btu adjustments, changes in spot prices/new contracts, inventory build or reduction, changes in costs based on contractually determined escalators and exercise of options under certain agreements.

 

 

Fuel Costs, excluding emissions, include coal and coal transportation costs, natural gas and oil used for start-up and, at Homer City, limestone costs and excludes all emissions purchases and/or sales. Reflects average inventory costs.

 

 

NAPP Coal is a proxy for the actual coal purchased by Homer City. Two types of coal, ready to burn and raw, are purchased for Units 1 and 2. Ready to burn coal is of a quality that can be burned directly in Units 1 and 2, whereas the raw coal purchased for Units 1 and 2 must be cleaned in the coal cleaning plant. Coal for all three units is generally sourced within 100 miles of the facility.

 

 

Coal Contracts (% hedged) are based on expected burn for the calendar year and deliveries during that year. Percentages are calculated without regard to potential changes in coal inventory.

 

 

Energy price sensitivities are based on a $1/MWh change in the realized price for each unhedged MWh sold. This sensitivity does not capture possible changes to generation output or correlated changes in the price of fuel or emissions.

 

 

Coal price sensitivities are based on the unhedged fuel requirement and a 10% change in coal commodity price of PRB, related to Midwest Generation requirements, and NAPP coal, as a proxy for the coal types burned at Homer City. A 10% change in NAPP coal is assumed to drive a 10% change in Homer City coal types although the absolute price change may be different.

 

 

Average hedge price reflects the total value of the on- and off-peak hedges and is not directly comparable to the flat energy price.

 

 

The earnings impact of SO2 price changes incorporates a forecast of emissions that may vary depending upon the sulfur content of coal and generation levels. Generation levels may also impact NOx emissions and the related earnings impact.

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EMG – Capital Expenditures

Planned Expenditures

2Q 2006 to 4Q 2008

Plant

 

Capex Environmental Growth

$ Millions

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

2006

 

BoY 2007 2008 2009

$826 Million

Potential Additional Expenditures

Evaluating FGDs at Homer City Units 1 and 2 Environmental expenditures at Midwest Gen Wind investments Thermal investments

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EMG – Capital Expenditures

Available Liquidity

($ millions)

Sources

 

12/31/05 6/30/06

EME

 

Revolver $98 $500

MWG

 

Revolver 325 295

Cash

 

& Short term 1,869 1,953 investments¹

$2,292

 

$2,748

 

 

Cash expected to decline in 2008 from payoff of MEHC notes and growth investments

 

 

Strong market conditions allowed EME to replace $98 million revolver with $500 million, 6-year facility

 

 

Enhanced liquidity: $1 billion of credit facilities between MWG and EME

Collateral

1,200

Credit Facilities

1,000

800

millions

 

600

$

 

$310

400

200

 

$343

0

6/30/06

 

Collateral² Potential (@ 95%)³

1.

 

Excludes $698 million and $336 million of cash collateral held by counterparties at 12/31/05 and 6/30/06, respectively.

2.

 

Includes $7 million in letters of credit.

3.

 

During next 12 months, using 95% confidence level.

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