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Reserves for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
3 Months Ended
Mar. 31, 2012
Reserves for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses

7. Reserves for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses

 

Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (“LAE”) represent the estimated ultimate net cost of all reported and unreported losses incurred through each balance sheet date. The reserves for unpaid losses and LAE are estimated using individual case-basis valuations and statistical analyses. These reserves are revised periodically and are subject to the effects of trends in loss severity and frequency. Due to the inherent uncertainty in estimating unpaid losses and LAE, the actual ultimate amounts may differ from the recorded amounts. The estimates are periodically reviewed and adjusted as experience develops or new information becomes known. Such adjustments are included in current operations.

 

We recorded $3.0 million of favorable development in reserve estimates during the three months ended March 31, 2012. We recorded $15.1 million of unfavorable development in reserve estimates during the three months ended March 31, 2011. In the first quarter of 2012, the aggregate loss reserves were decreased to reflect favorable loss development when the available information indicated a reasonable likelihood that the ultimate loss would be less than the previous estimates. In the first quarter of 2011, the aggregate loss reserves were increased to reflect unfavorable loss development when the available information indicated a reasonable likelihood that the ultimate loss would be more than the previous estimates.

 

The $3.0 million favorable development recognized in the first quarter of 2012 was attributable to $0.3 million favorable development on claims incurred in the 2011 accident year, $0.5 million favorable development on claims incurred in the 2010 accident year, $0.9 million favorable development on claims incurred in the 2009 accident year and $1.3 million favorable development on claims incurred in the 2008 and prior accident years. Our Standard Commercial business unit and E&S Commercial business unit accounted for $2.9 million and $0.9 million, respectively, of the favorable development recognized during the first quarter of 2012. These favorable developments were partially offset by $0.8 million of unfavorable development in our Personal Lines business unit. The favorable development for our Standard Commercial business unit of $2.9 million was driven by favorable claims development in the 2011 accident year as a result of favorable loss development in commercial property and commercial auto liability. Further contributing to the favorable development for our Standard Commercial business unit was favorable claims development in the 2009 and prior accident years driven primarily by general liability and commercial auto liability. The favorable development for our E&S Commercial business unit of $0.9 million was driven by favorable claims development in the 2010 and prior accident years as a result of favorable loss development in general liability, commercial auto liability and commercial property, partially offset by unfavorable claims development in the 2011 accident year as a result of unfavorable loss development in commercial auto physical damage. The unfavorable loss development for our Personal Lines business unit of $0.8 million was attributable to 2010 and prior accident years.

 

 

The $15.1 million unfavorable development in reserve estimates recognized in the first quarter of 2011 was attributable to $12.3 million unfavorable development on claims incurred in the 2010 accident year, $1.8 million unfavorable development on claims incurred in the 2009 accident year and $1.0 million unfavorable development on claims incurred in the 2008 and prior accident years. Our Standard Commercial business unit, E&S Commercial business unit and Personal Lines business unit accounted for $1.3 million, $1.0 million and $12.8 million, respectively, of the unfavorable development recognized during the first quarter of 2011. The unfavorable development for our Standard Commercial business unit was driven by unfavorable claims development in the 2010 accident year due to a late developing umbrella claim. Further contributing to the unfavorable development for our Standard Commercial business unit was unfavorable claims development in the 2009 and prior accident years driven by large loss development in a commercial property claim and a commercial auto liability claim. The unfavorable development for our E&S Commercial business unit was primarily the result of large losses in commercial auto liability. Of the $12.8 million unfavorable development for our Personal Lines business unit, $9.7 million was attributable to Florida developing much worse than expected due primarily to rapid growth in the claim volume from Florida and the complexity related to Florida personal injury protection coverage claims. The remaining unfavorable development for our Personal Lines business unit was primarily due to development of auto liability claims spread throughout our other states.