Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

6 Months Ended

Jun. 30, 2022

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Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

Summary

MBIA Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries, (collectively, “MBIA” or the “Company”) operates within the financial guarantee insurance industry. MBIA manages three operating segments: 1) United States (“U.S.”) public finance insurance; 2) corporate; and 3) international and structured finance insurance. The Company’s U.S. public finance insurance business is managed through National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (“National”), the corporate segment is operated through MBIA Inc. and several of its subsidiaries, including its service company, MBIA Services Corporation (“MBIA Services”) and its international and structured finance insurance business is primarily operated through MBIA Insurance Corporation and its subsidiary, MBIA Mexico S.A. de C.V., (“MBIA Corp.”).

Refer to “Note 10: Business Segments” for further information about the Company’s operating segments.

Business Developments

Puerto Rico

On January 1, 2022, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and certain of its instrumentalities (“Puerto Rico”) defaulted on scheduled debt service for National insured bonds and National paid gross claims in the aggregate of $47 million. As of June 30, 2022, National had

$2.1 billion of debt service outstanding related to Puerto Rico.

In addition, on July 1, 2022, Puerto Rico defaulted on scheduled debt service for National insured bonds and National paid gross claims in the aggregate of $142 million, which decreased the $2.1 billion of debt service outstanding related to Puerto Rico.

PREPA

On March 8, 2022, the Puerto Rico Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority (“AAFAF”) and the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (“PREPA”) terminated the restructuring support agreement, as amended (“RSA”). On April 8, 2022, the Court appointed a new panel of judges to commence mediation among the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico (the “Oversight Board”), the Ad Hoc creditor group as holders of PREPA Senior Bonds, Assured, National and Syncora (the “April 8 Order”). The mediation deadline is currently August 15, 2022. The April 8 Order further provides that nothing therein acts as a stay of any pending adversary proceedings or contested matters in the PREPA case, subject to the Court’s pending request to the Oversight Board for a status report by August 15, 2022.

As of June 30, 2022, National has sold approximately 35% of its PREPA bankruptcy claims related to insurance claims paid on matured National-insured PREPA bonds. These sales monetized a portion of National’s salvage asset and reduced potential volatility and ongoing risk of remediation around the PREPA credit.

GO and HTA

On February 22, 2021, National agreed to join a plan support agreement, dated as of February 22, 2021 (the “GO PSA”), among the Oversight Board, certain holders of Puerto Rico Commonwealth GO (“GO”) Bonds and Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (“PBA”) Bonds, Assured Guaranty Corp. and Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp, and Syncora Guarantee Inc. in connection with the GO and PBA Title III cases. The Commonwealth Plan of Adjustment was confirmed on January 18, 2022. The GO PSA was effective and implemented on March 15, 2022, and among other things, National received cash, including certain fees, newly issued General Obligation bonds and a contingent value instrument (“CVI”) totaling approximately $1.0 billion. The CVI is intended to provide creditors with additional recoveries based on potential outperformance of Puerto Rico 5.5% Sales and Use Tax receipts based on the projections in the 2020 certified fiscal plan, subject to certain caps. Subsequent to the GO PSA implementation, National made $277 million of acceleration and commutation payments pursuant to the GO PSA. Accordingly, National’s GO and PBA gross par outstanding and debt service outstanding have been reduced to zero from approximately $380 million and $495 million, respectively.

On April 12, 2021, National, Assured Guaranty Corp., Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and the Oversight Board reached an agreement in principle settling certain clawback claims and providing for a distribution of cash, bonds and a CVI to Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority (“HTA”) bondholders subject to completing negotiations on a plan support agreement in respect of a plan of adjustment (the “HTA PSA”). On May 5, 2021, National, Assured Guaranty Corp., Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and the Oversight Board entered into the HTA PSA. On May 2, 2022, the Oversight Board filed the Title III Plan of Adjustment for the Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (the “HTA Plan”), together with the Disclosure Statement and supporting documents. On June 22, 2022, the Disclosure Statement was approved by the Court. Confirmation is scheduled for August 17 and 18, 2022. During July of 2022, National received $33 million of cash and $358 million face amount of CVI relating to HTA. In addition, National expects to receive additional cash and newly issued HTA bonds, or cash equal to the face amount of the newly issued HTA bonds, following the effective date of the HTA Plan. 

Refer to “Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves” for a further discussion of the Company’s Puerto Rico reserves and recoveries.

Risks and Uncertainties

The Company’s financial statements include estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. The outcome of certain significant risks and uncertainties could cause the Company to revise its estimates and assumptions or could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company’s estimates. The discussion below highlights the significant risks and uncertainties that could have a material effect on the Company’s financial statements and business objectives in future periods.

National’s Insured Portfolio

National continues to monitor and remediate its existing insured portfolio and may also pursue strategic alternatives that could enhance shareholder value. Certain state and local governments and territory obligors that National insures are under financial and budgetary stress. This could lead to an increase in defaults by such entities on the payment of their obligations and losses or impairments on a greater number of National’s insured transactions. In particular, HTA and PREPA are currently in bankruptcy-like proceedings in the United States District Court for the District of Puerto Rico, pursuant to PROMESA. Since 2016, Puerto Rico has been unable or unwilling to pay its obligations as and when due, and National has been required to pay claims of unpaid principal and interest when due under its insurance policies as a consequence. Puerto Rico may continue to fail to make payments when due, which could cause National to make additional claims payments which could be material. While National will seek to recover any claim payments it makes under its guarantees, there is no assurance that it will be able to recover such payments. National monitors and analyzes these situations and other stressed credits closely, and the overall extent and duration of this stress is uncertain.

MBIA Corp.’s Insured Portfolio

MBIA Corp.’s primary objectives are to satisfy all claims by its policyholders and to maximize future recoveries, if any, for its surplus note holders, and then its preferred stock holders. MBIA Corp. is executing this strategy by, among other things, taking steps to maximize the collection of recoveries and by reducing and mitigating potential losses on its insurance exposures. MBIA Corp.’s insured portfolio performance could deteriorate and result in additional significant loss reserves and claim payments. MBIA Corp.’s ability to meet its obligations is limited by available liquidity and its ability to secure additional liquidity through financing and other transactions. There can be no assurance that MBIA Corp. will be successful in generating sufficient resources to meet its obligations.

Zohar and RMBS Recoveries

Payment of claims on MBIA Corp.’s policies insuring the Class A-1 and A-2 notes issued by Zohar CDO 2003-1, Limited (“Zohar I”) and Zohar II 2005-1, Limited (“Zohar II”), entitles MBIA Corp. to reimbursement of such amounts plus interest and expenses and/or to exercise certain rights and remedies to seek recovery of such amounts. MBIA Corp. anticipates that it will receive substantial recoveries on the loans made to, and equity interests in, companies that, until late March of 2020, were purportedly controlled and managed by the sponsor and former collateral manager of the Zohar collateralized debt obligations (“CDOs”) referenced above (collectively, the “Zohar Collateral”). Since March of 2018, MBIA Corp. has been pursuing those recoveries in a Delaware bankruptcy proceeding filed by the Zohar CDOs. Pursuant to a plan of liquidation confirmed in such bankruptcy proceeding regarding the Zohar CDOs and the remaining Zohar Collateral not previously monetized, which plan of liquidation became effective on August 2, 2022, MBIA Corp.’s rights to recoveries from any remaining Zohar Collateral were distributed to MBIA Corp. in the form of beneficial interests in certain asset recovery entities, which will be managed by a special manager subject to oversight by MBIA Corp. and another former Zohar creditor. There still remains significant uncertainty with respect to the realizable value of the remaining loans and equity interests that formerly constituted the Zohar Collateral and that comprise the assets of the asset recovery entities. Further, as the monetization of these assets unfolds in coordination with the special manager of the asset recovery entities and the directors and managers in place at the portfolio companies, and new information concerning the financial condition of the portfolio companies is disclosed, the Company will continue to revise its expectations for recoveries.

MBIA Corp. also projects to collect recoveries from prior claims associated with insured residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”); however, the amount and timing of these collections are uncertain.

Failure to collect its expected recoveries could impede MBIA Corp.’s ability to make payments when due on other policies. MBIA Corp. believes that if the New York State Department of Financial Services (“NYSDFS”) concludes at any time that MBIA Insurance Corporation will not be able to pay its policyholder claims, the NYSDFS would likely put MBIA Insurance Corporation into a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding under Article 74 of the New York Insurance Law (“NYIL”) and/or take such other actions as the NYSDFS may deem necessary to protect the interests of MBIA Insurance Corporation’s policyholders. The determination to commence such a proceeding or take other such actions is within the exclusive control of the NYSDFS.

Given the separation of MBIA Inc. and MBIA Corp. as distinct legal entities, the absence of any cross defaults between the entities and the lack of reliance by MBIA Inc. on MBIA Corp. for dividends, the Company does not believe that a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding with respect to MBIA Insurance Corporation would have any significant liquidity impact on MBIA Inc. Such a proceeding could have material adverse consequences for MBIA Corp., including the termination of derivative contracts for which counterparties may assert market-based claims, the acceleration of debt obligations issued by affiliates and insured by MBIA Corp., the loss of control of MBIA Insurance Corporation to a rehabilitator or liquidator, and unplanned costs.

Refer to “Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves” for additional information about MBIA Corp.’s recoveries.

Corporate Liquidity

Based on the Company’s projections of National’s dividends and other cash inflows, the Company expects that MBIA Inc. will have sufficient cash to satisfy its debt service and general corporate needs. However, MBIA Inc. continues to have liquidity risk that could be caused by interruption of or reduction in dividends from National, deterioration in the performance of invested assets, impaired access to the capital markets, as well as other factors, which are not anticipated at this time. Furthermore, failure by MBIA Inc. to settle liabilities that are insured by MBIA Corp. could result in claims on MBIA Corp.