Investments

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2020

Text Block [Abstract]

Investments

Note 7: Investments

Investments, excluding those elected under the fair value option, include debt and equity securities classified as either AFS or HTM.

The following table presents the amortized cost, allowance for credit losses, corresponding gross unrealized gains and losses and fair value for AFS and HTM investments in the Company’s consolidated investment portfolio as of September 30, 2020:

	September 30, 2020
In millions	Amortized Cost		Allowance for Credit Losses		Gross Unrealized Gains		Gross Unrealized Losses			Fair Value
AFS Investments
Fixed-maturity investments:
U.S. Treasury and government agency	$	918	$	-	$	85	$	-		$	1,003
State and municipal bonds		159		-		31		-			190
Foreign governments		12		-		1		-			13
Corporate obligations		870		-		68		(4	)		934
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed agency		281		-		8		-			289
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		23		-		3		-			26
Commercial mortgage-backed		17		-		1		-			18
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		125		-		-		(4	)		121
Other asset-backed		106		-		1		-			107
Total AFS investments	$	2,511	$	-	$	198	$	(8	)	$	2,701
HTM Investments
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations	$	575	$	-	$	-	$	-		$	575
Total HTM investments	$	575	$	-	$	-	$	-		$	575

The following table presents the amortized cost, fair value, corresponding gross unrealized gains and losses and OTTI for AFS and HTM investments in the Company’s consolidated investment portfolio as of December 31, 2019:

	December 31, 2019
In millions	Amortized Cost		Gross Unrealized Gains		Gross Unrealized Losses			Fair Value		Other-Than- Temporary Impairments(1)
AFS Investments
Fixed-maturity investments:
U.S. Treasury and government agency	$	838	$	46	$	(2	)	$	882	$	-
State and municipal bonds		178		22		-			200		-
Foreign governments		8		1		-			9		-
Corporate obligations		1,140		52		(1	)		1,191		-
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed agency		317		3		-			320		-
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		23		1		(5	)		19		-
Commercial mortgage-backed		20		-		-			20		-
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		139		-		(2	)		137		-
Other asset-backed		321		1		(1	)		321		-
Total AFS investments	$	2,984	$	126	$	(11	)	$	3,099	$	-
HTM Investments
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations	$	890	$	2	$	-		$	892	$	-
Total HTM investments	$	890	$	2	$	-		$	892	$	-

(1) -  Represents unrealized gains or losses on OTTI securities recognized in AOCI, which includes the non-credit component of impairments, as well as all subsequent changes in fair value of such impaired securities reported in AOCI.

HTM investments declined due to the early redemption of assets and liabilities within a structured finance VIE that was deconsolidated during the first quarter of 2020.

The following table presents the distribution by contractual maturity of AFS and HTM fixed-maturity securities at amortized cost, net of allowance for credit losses, and fair value as of September 30, 2020. Contractual maturity may differ from expected maturity as borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations.

	AFS Securities				HTM Securities
					Consolidated VIEs
In millions	Net Amortized Cost		Fair Value		Net Amortized Cost		Fair Value
Due in one year or less	$	560	$	562	$	-	$	-
Due after one year through five years		473		490		-		-
Due after five years through ten years		269		297		-		-
Due after ten years		657		791		575		575
Mortgage-backed and asset-backed		552		561		-		-
Total fixed-maturity investments	$	2,511	$	2,701	$	575	$	575

Deposited and Pledged Securities

The fair value of securities on deposit with various regulatory authorities as of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019 was $11 million. These deposits are required to comply with state insurance laws.

Pursuant to the Company’s tax sharing agreement, securities held by MBIA Inc. in the Tax Escrow Account are included as “Investments pledged as collateral, at fair value” on the Company’s consolidated balance sheets.

Investment agreement obligations require the Company to pledge securities as collateral. Securities pledged in connection with investment agreements may not be repledged by the investment agreement counterparty. As of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, the fair value of securities pledged as collateral for these investment agreements approximated $294 million and $313 million, respectively. The Company’s collateral as of September 30, 2020 consisted principally of U.S. Treasury and government agency and corporate obligations, and was primarily held with major U.S. banks. Additionally, the Company pledged cash as collateral under investment agreements in the amount of $8 million as of September 30, 2020.

Refer to “Note 8: Derivative Instruments” for information about securities posted to derivative counterparties.

Impaired Investments

The following table presents the non-credit related gross unrealized losses related to AFS investments as of September 30, 2020:

	September 30, 2020
	Less than 12 Months					12 Months or Longer					Total
In millions	Fair Value		Unrealized Losses			Fair Value		Unrealized Losses			Fair Value		Unrealized Losses
AFS Investments
Fixed-maturity investments:
U.S. Treasury and government agency	$	124	$	-		$	-	$	-		$	124	$	-
State and municipal bonds		1		-			-		-			1		-
Corporate obligations		124		(3	)		7		(1	)		131		(4	)
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed agency		57		-			-		-			57		-
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		-		-			2		-			2		-
Commercial mortgage-backed		-		-			5		-			5		-
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		41		(1	)		80		(3	)		121		(4	)
Other asset-backed		35		-			-		-			35		-
Total AFS investments	$	382	$	(4	)	$	94	$	(4	)	$	476	$	(8	)

The following table presents the gross unrealized losses related to AFS investments as of December 31, 2019:

	December 31, 2019
	Less than 12 Months					12 Months or Longer					Total
In millions	Fair Value		Unrealized Losses			Fair Value		Unrealized Losses			Fair Value		Unrealized Losses
AFS Investments
Fixed-maturity investments:
U.S. Treasury and government agency	$	148	$	(1	)	$	79	$	(1	)	$	227	$	(2	)
State and municipal bonds		11		-			15		-			26		-
Corporate obligations		53		(1	)		10		-			63		(1	)
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed agency		62		-			7		-			69		-
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		-		-			11		(5	)		11		(5	)
Commercial mortgage-backed		5		-			-		-			5		-
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		44		-			77		(2	)		121		(2	)
Other asset-backed		48		(1	)		7		-			55		(1	)
Total AFS investments	$	371	$	(3	)	$	206	$	(8	)	$	577	$	(11	)

Gross unrealized losses on AFS investments decreased as of September 30, 2020 compared with December 31, 2019 primarily due to lower interest rates, partially offset by widening credit spreads.

With the weighting applied on the fair value of each security relative to the total fair value, the weighted average contractual maturity of securities in an unrealized loss position as of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019 was 11 and 10 years, respectively. As of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, there were 45 and 63 securities, respectively, that were in an unrealized loss position for a continuous twelve-month period or longer, of which, fair values of 16 securities were below book value by more than 5%.

The following table presents the distribution of securities in an unrealized loss position for a continuous twelve-month period or longer where fair value was below book value by more than 5% as of September 30, 2020:

	AFS Securities
Percentage of Fair Value Below Book Value	Number of Securities		Book Value (in millions)		Fair Value (in millions)
> 5% to 15%		10	$	20	$	18
> 15% to 25%		2		-		-
> 25% to 50%		2		1		1
> 50%		2		-		-
Total		16	$	21	$	19

Impaired securities that the Company intends to sell before the expected recovery of such securities’ fair values have been written down to fair value. During the second quarter of 2020, the Company impaired intent to sell securities in an unrealized loss position to fair value. These securities were subsequently sold in the third quarter of 2020. As of September 30, 2020, the Company concluded that it does not have the intent to sell securities in an unrealized loss position and it is more likely than not, that it would not have to sell these securities before recovery of their cost basis. In making this conclusion, the Company examined the cash flow projections for its investment portfolios, the potential sources and uses of cash in its businesses, and the cash resources available to its business other than sales of securities. It also considered the existence of any risk management or other plans as of September 30, 2020 that would require the sale of impaired securities.

Credit Losses on Investments

In calculating credit-related losses, the Company uses cash flow modeling based on the type of security. The Company’s cash flow analysis considers all sources of cash that support the payment of amounts owed by an issuer of a security. For AFS investments, this includes the credit enhancement taking into the consideration of cash expected to be provided by financial guarantors, including MBIA Corp. and National, resulting from an actual or potential insurance policy claim. In general, any change in the amount and/or timing of cash flows received or expected to be received, whether or not such cash flows are contractually defined, is reflected in the Company’s cash flow analysis for purposes of assessing a credit loss on an impaired security.

Each quarter, an internal committee, comprising staff that is independent of the Company’s evaluation process for determining credit losses of securities, reviews and approves the valuation of investments. Among other responsibilities, this committee ensures that the Company’s process for identifying and calculating allowance for credit losses, including the use of models and assumptions, is reasonable and complies with the Company’s internal policy.

Determination of Credit Losses on ABS, MBS and Corporate Obligations

AFS ABS investments are evaluated for credit loss using historical collateral performance, deal waterfall and structural protections, credit ratings, and forward looking projections of collateral performance based on business and economic conditions specific to each collateral type and risk. The underlying collateral is evaluated to identify any specific performance concerns, and stress scenarios are considered in forecasting ultimate returns of principal. Based on this evaluation, if a principal default is projected for a security, estimated future cash flows are discounted at the security’s effective interest rate used to recognize interest income on the security. For CDO investments, the Company uses the same tools as its RMBS investments discussed below, aggregating the bond level cash flows to the CDO investment level. If the present value of cash flows is less than the Company’s amortized cost for the security, the difference is recorded as a credit loss.

AFS RMBS investments are evaluated for credit losses using several quantitative tools. Loan level data is obtained and analyzed in a model that produces prepayment, default, and severity vectors. The model uses macro inputs, including housing price assumptions and interest rates. The vector outputs are used as inputs to a third-party cash flow model, which considers deal waterfall dynamics and structural features, to generate cash flows for an RMBS investment. The expected cash flows of the security are then discounted at the interest rate used to recognize interest income of the security to arrive at a present value amount. If the present value of the cash flows is less than the Company’s amortized cost for the investment, the difference is recorded as a credit loss.

For AFS corporate obligation investments, credit losses are evaluated using credit analysis techniques. The Company’s analysis includes a detailed review of a number of quantitative and qualitative factors impacting the value of an individual security. These factors include the interest rate of the security (fixed or floating), the security’s current market spread, any collateral supporting the security, the security’s position in the issuer’s capital structure, and credit rating upgrades or downgrades. Additionally, these factors include an assessment of various issuer-related credit metrics including market capitalization, earnings, cash flow, capitalization, interest coverage, leverage, liquidity and management. The Company’s analysis is augmented by comparing market prices for similar securities of other issuers in the same sector, as well as any recent corporate or government actions that may impact the ultimate return of principal. If the Company determines that a principal default is projected, a recovery analysis is performed using the above data. If the Company’s estimated recovery value for the security is less than its amortized cost, the difference is recorded as a credit loss.

For HTM corporate obligation investments, credit losses are evaluated based on quarterly estimates of the probability-weighted amount of principal and interest cash flows expected to be collected over the estimated remaining lives of the security. Developing the Company’s probability-weighted expected future cash flows is a quantitative and qualitative process that incorporates information received from third-party sources along with certain internal assumptions regarding the future performance. The Company’s considerations include, but are not limited to, (a) changes in the financial conditions of the security’s underlying collateral, (b) whether the issuer is current on contractually obligated interest and principal payments, (c) changes in the financial condition, credit rating and near-term prospects of the issuer, (d) level of excess cash flows generated from the underlying collateral supporting the principal and interest payments of the security. Estimates of collectability require the use of significant management judgment and include the probability and timing of issuer’s default and loss severity estimates. In addition, cash flow projections may change when these factors are reviewed and updated as appropriate.

Determination of Credit Loss Guaranteed by the Company on Other Third-Party Guarantors

The Company does not recognize credit losses on securities insured by MBIA Corp. and National since those securities, whether or not owned by the Company, are evaluated for impairments in accordance with its loss reserving policy. The following table provides information about securities held by the Company as of September 30, 2020 that were in an unrealized loss position and insured by a financial guarantor, along with the amount of insurance loss reserves corresponding to the par amount owned by the Company. The Company did not hold any securities in an unrealized loss position that were insured by a third-party financial guarantor as of September 30, 2020.

In millions	Fair Value		Unrealized Loss		Insurance Loss Reserve (1)
Mortgage-backed	$	1		-		-
Total	$	1	$	-	$	-

(1) - Insurance loss reserve estimates are based on the proportion of par value owned to the total amount of par value insured.

Allowance for Credit Losses Rollforward

The Company did not establish an allowance for credit losses for AFS securities as of September 30, 2020 or purchase any credit-deteriorated assets for the three or nine months ended September 30, 2020.

The following tables present the rollforward of allowance for credit losses on HTM investments for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020. As of September 30, 2020, the allowance for credit losses was reduced to zero as a result of the repayment of the assets, at par, subsequent to the third quarter of 2020.

			Three Months Ended September 30, 2020
In millions	Balance Beginning of Period		Current period provision for expected credit losses			Initial allowance recognized for PCD assets		Write-Offs		Recoveries		Balance as of September 30, 2020
HTM Investments
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations	$	23	$	(23	)	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-
Total Allowance on HTM investments	$	23	$	(23	)	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-

			Nine Months Ended September 30, 2020
In millions	Balance as of January 1, 2020 (1)		Current period provision for expected credit losses			Initial allowance recognized for PCD assets		Write-Offs		Recoveries		Balance as of September 30, 2020
HTM Investments
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations	$	37	$	(37	)	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-
Total Allowance on HTM investments	$	37	$	(37	)	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-

(1) -  Represents transition adjustment upon adoption of ASU 2016-13.

Credit Loss Rollforward for AFS

The portion of certain unrealized losses on fixed-maturity securities that does not represent credit losses is recognized in AOCI. For these impairments, the net amount recognized in earnings represents the difference between the amortized cost of the security and the net present value of its projected future discounted cash flows prior to impairment. Any remaining difference between the fair value and amortized cost is recognized in AOCI. The following table presents the amount of credit loss impairments recognized in earnings on fixed-maturity securities held by MBIA as of the dates indicated, for which a portion of the non-credit related losses was recognized in AOCI, and the corresponding changes in such amounts. The additional credit loss impairments on securities previously impaired for the nine months ended September 30, 2019 was primarily related to an impaired security for which a loss was recognized as the difference between the amortized cost and net present value of projected cash flows. The OTTI resulted from updated liquidity concerns and other adverse financial conditions of the issuer.

In millions	Three Months Ended September 30, 2019		Nine Months Ended September 30, 2019
Credit Losses Recognized in Earnings Related to Other-Than-Temporary Impairments
Beginning balance	$	74	$	37
Additions for credit loss impairments recognized in the current period on securities previously impaired		-		37
Ending balance	$	74	$	74

Sales of Available-for-Sale Investments

Gross realized gains and losses are recorded within “Net gains (losses) on financial instruments at fair value and foreign exchange” on the Company’s consolidated statements of operations. The proceeds and the gross realized gains and losses from sales of fixed-maturity securities held as AFS for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 are as follows:

	Three Months Ended September 30,					Nine Months Ended September 30,
In millions	2020			2019		2020			2019
Proceeds from sales	$	293		$	508	$	862		$	1,875
Gross realized gains	$	22		$	79	$	53		$	100
Gross realized losses	$	(2	)	$	-	$	(14	)	$	(3	)

Equity Investments

Unrealized gains and losses recognized on equity investments held as of the end of each period for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 are as follows:

	Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
In millions	2020		2019		2020			2019
Net gains (losses) recognized during the period on equity securities	$	4	$	2	$	(1	)	$	9
Less:
Net gains (losses) recognized during the period on equity securities sold during the period		-		-		-			1
Unrealized gains (losses) recognized during the period on equity securities still held at the reporting date	$	4	$	2	$	(1	)	$	8