U.S. public finance insured transactions consist of municipal bonds, including

tax-exempt

and taxable indebtedness of U.S. political subdivisions, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, housing authorities and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities that finance projects that serve a substantial public purpose. The Company estimates future losses by using probability-weighted cash flow scenarios that are customized to each insured transaction. Future loss estimates consider debt service due for each insured transaction, which includes par outstanding and interest due, as well as recoveries for such payments, if any. Gross par outstanding for capital appreciation bonds represents the par amount at the time of issuance of the insurance policy.

Certain state and local governments and territory obligors that National insures are under financial and budgetary stress. In addition, the

COVID-19

pandemic may present additional but unknown credit risks to National’s insured portfolio. Puerto Rico had been experiencing significant fiscal stress and constrained liquidity, and in response, the U.S. Congress passed PROMESA. In formulating loss reserves, the Company considers the following: environmental and political impacts; litigation; ongoing discussions with creditors; timing and amount of debt service payments and future recoveries; existing proposed restructuring plans or agreements; and deviations from these proposals in its probability-weighted scenarios. In September of 2019, National agreed to join the RSA with PREPA, other monoline insurers, a group of uninsured PREPA bondholders, Puerto Rico, and the Oversight Board. Refer to “Note 1: Business Developments and Risk and Uncertainties”, for further information on

COVID-19

and the Company’s Puerto Rico exposures.

For recoveries on paid Puerto Rico losses, the estimates include assumptions related to the following: economic conditions and trends; political developments; the Company’s ability to enforce contractual rights through litigation and otherwise; discussions with other creditors and the obligors, any existing proposals; and the remediation strategy for an insured obligation that has defaulted or is expected for default.

The international and structured finance insurance segment’s case basis reserves and insurance loss recoveries recorded in accordance with GAAP do not include estimates for a policy insuring a credit derivative or on financial guarantee VIEs that are eliminated in consolidation. The policy insuring a credit derivative contract is accounted for as a derivative and is carried at fair value in the Company’s consolidated financial statements. The fair value of the insured credit derivative contract is influenced by a variety of market and transaction-specific factors that may be unrelated to potential future claim payments under the Company’s insurance policy. Refer to “Note 8: Derivative Instruments” for a further discussion of the Company’s use of derivatives and their impact on the Company’s consolidated financial statements. In addition,

COVID-19

may present additional but unknown credit risks to MBIA Corp.’s insured portfolio. Refer to “Note 1: Business Developments and Risk and Uncertainties”, for further information on

COVID-19.

The Company’s RMBS reserves and recoveries relate to financial guarantee insurance policies, excluding those on consolidated VIEs. The Company’s first-lien RMBS case basis reserves primarily relate to RMBS backed by alternative

A-paper

and subprime mortgage loans. The Company’s second-lien RMBS case basis reserves relate to RMBS backed by home equity lines of credit and

closed-end

second mortgages. The Company calculated RMBS case basis reserves as of September 30, 2020 for both first and second-lien RMBS transactions using a process called the Roll Rate Methodology (“Roll Rate Methodology”). The Roll Rate Methodology is a multi-step process using databases of loan level information, proprietary internal cash flow models, and commercially available models to estimate potential losses and recoveries on insured bonds. Roll Rate is defined as the probability that current loans become delinquent and subsequently default and loans in the delinquent pipeline are

charged-off

or liquidated. The loss reserve estimates are based on a probability-weighted average of

multiple

scenarios of loan losses. Additional data used for both second and first-liens include historic averages of deal specific voluntary prepayment rates, forward projections of the LIBOR interest rates, and historic averages of deal-specific loss severities. In addition, for second-lien RMBS backed by home equity lines of credit, the Company assumes a constant basis spread between Prime and LIBOR interest rates.

In calculating ultimate cumulative losses for RMBS, the Company estimates the amount of second-lien loans that are expected to be

charged-off

(deemed uncollectible by servicers of the transactions) and, for first-lien RMBS, the Company estimates the amount of loans that are expected to be liquidated in the future through foreclosure or short sale. The time to liquidation for a defaulted loan is specific to the loan’s delinquency bucket.

For all RMBS transactions, cash flow models consider allocations and other structural aspects and claims against MBIA Corp.’s insurance policy consistent with such policy’s terms and conditions. The estimated net claims from the procedure above are then discounted using a risk-free rate to a net present value reflecting MBIA’s general obligation to pay claims over time and not on an accelerated basis.

The Company monitors RMBS portfolio performance on a monthly basis against projected performance, reviewing delinquencies, roll rates, and prepayment rates (including voluntary and involuntary). However, loan performance remains difficult to predict and losses may exceed expectations. In the event of a material deviation in actual performance from projected performance, the Company would increase or decrease the case basis reserves accordingly and

re-evaluate

its assumptions.

The Company primarily records two types of recoveries related to insured RMBS exposures: excess spread that is generated from the trust structures in the insured transactions; and second-lien

“put-back”

claims related to those mortgage loans whose inclusion in an insured securitization failed to comply with representations and warranties (“ineligible loans”).

Excess spread within insured RMBS securitizations is the difference between interest inflows on mortgage loan collateral and interest outflows on the insured RMBS notes. The aggregate amount of excess spread depends on the future loss trends, which include future delinquency trends, average time to

charge-off/liquidate

delinquent loans, the future spread between Prime and the LIBOR interest rates, and borrower refinancing behavior (which may be affected by changes in the interest rate environment) that results in voluntary prepayments. Excess spread also includes subsequent recoveries on previously

charged-off

loans associated with insured second-lien RMBS securitizations.

The Company has settled the majority of its

put-back

claims relating to the inclusion of ineligible loans in securitizations it insured. Only its claims against Credit Suisse remain outstanding. Credit Suisse has challenged the Company’s assessment of the ineligibility of individual mortgage loans and a trial concerning the dispute was held in July and August of 2019. While the Company’s settlement amounts on its prior

put-back

claims have been consistent with the

put-back

recoveries that had been included in the Company’s financial statements at the times preceding the settlements, there can be no assurance that the Company will prevail in its litigation against Credit Suisse. However, based on the Company’s assessment of the strength of its contractual

put-back

rights against Credit Suisse, as well as on its prior settlements with other sellers/servicers and success of other monolines’

put-back

settlements, the Company believes it will prevail in enforcing its contractual rights and that it is entitled to collect the full amount of its incurred losses plus contractual interest due. The Company consolidates the RMBS securitization originated by Credit Suisse as a VIE and, therefore, eliminates its estimate of recoveries from its insurance accounting and reflects such recoveries in its accounting for the loan repurchase commitments asset of the VIE using a measurement process similar to that used for insurance accounting.

The uncertainty remaining with respect to the ultimate outcome of the litigation with Credit Suisse is contemplated in the probability-weighted scenario based-modeling the Company uses. The Credit Suisse recovery scenarios are based on certain probabilities of ultimate resolution of the dispute with Credit Suisse and the fair values are determined using discounted cash flow models.

The Company continues to consider relevant facts and circumstances in developing its assumptions on expected cash inflows, probability of potential recoveries (including the timing and outcome of the litigation) and recovery period. While the Company believes it will be successful in realizing its recoveries from its

put-back

contract claims against Credit Suisse, the ultimate amount recovered may be materially different from that recorded by the Company given the inherent uncertainty of the manner of resolving the claims (i.e., litigation and/or negotiated

out-of-court

settlement) and the assumptions used in the required estimation process for accounting purposes which are based, in part, on judgments and other information that are not easily corroborated by historical data or other relevant benchmarks. Refer to “Note 13: Commitments and Contingencies” for further information about the Company’s litigation with Credit Suisse.

The Company also has loss and loss adjustment expense (“LAE”) reserves on certain transactions within its CDO portfolio, primarily its multi-sector CDO asset class that was insured in the form of financial guarantee policies. MBIA’s insured multi-sector CDOs are transactions that include a variety of collateral ranging from corporate bonds to structured finance assets (which includes, but are not limited to, RMBS, commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS,”) ABS and CDO collateral). The Company’s process for estimating reserves and credit impairments on these policies is determined as the present value of the probability-weighted potential future losses, net of estimated recoveries, across multiple scenarios. The Company considers several factors when developing the range of potential outcomes and their impact on MBIA. A range of loss scenarios is considered under different default and severity rates for each transaction’s collateral. Additionally, each transaction is evaluated for its commutation potential.

MBIA Corp. is seeking to recover the payments it made (plus interest and expenses) with respect to Zohar I and Zohar II. In March of 2018, the then-director of Zohar I and Zohar II placed those funds into voluntary bankruptcy proceedings in federal bankruptcy court in the District of Delaware (the “Zohar Funds Bankruptcy Cases”). In May of 2018, MBIA and certain parties to the Zohar Funds Bankruptcy Cases agreed to a stay of litigation and a process, among other things (the “Zohar Bankruptcy Settlement”) by which the debtor funds, through an independent director and a chief restructuring officer, would work with the original sponsor of the funds to monetize the Zohar Assets and repay creditors, including MBIA Corp. While the stay of litigation provided for in the Zohar Bankruptcy Settlement has expired, the court has ruled that the monetization process will continue, a decision that was affirmed by the federal District Court for the District of Delaware in July of 2020.

While MBIA Corp. anticipates that the primary source of the recoveries will come from the monetization of the Zohar Assets, significant uncertainty remains with respect to realizable value. Notably, one of the portfolio companies, Dura Automotive Systems, LLC, and certain of its affiliates, filed for bankruptcy protection in the fall of 2019 and the Company no longer projects any recovery on the Zohar debtors’ substantial debt and equity interests in the Dura debtors. In late March of 2020, the original sponsor of the Zohar Funds resigned from her role as director and manager of all the portfolio companies, except for Dura, which companies have debt and equity that comprise, in part, the Zohar Assets. New directors and managers are currently in place at all but two of the portfolio companies, which are all subject to the above-referenced monetization process. There can be no assurance, however, that the recent coronavirus outbreak and/or other developments will not cause the monetization of the Zohar Assets to be delayed or impacted. Salvage and subrogation recoveries related to Zohar I and Zohar II are reported within “Insurance loss recoverable” on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. The Company’s estimate of the insurance loss recoverable for Zohar I and Zohar II includes probability-weighted scenarios of the ultimate monetized recovery from the Zohar Assets.

Notwithstanding the procedures agreed to in the Zohar Bankruptcy Settlement and confirmed by the court, there can be no assurance that the monetization of the Zohar Assets will yield amounts sufficient to permit MBIA Corp. to recover a substantial portion of the payments it made on Zohar I and Zohar II. In particular, as the monetization process unfolds in coordination with the new directors and managers in place, and new information concerning the financial condition of the portfolio companies is disclosed, the Company may revise its expectations for recoveries. For example, at a June 3, 2020 hearing, counsel for one of the portfolio companies announced that the monetization process for that company would be delayed as a consequence of having to investigate issues relating to the integrity of the company’s financial statements. Failure to recover a substantial portion of the payments made on Zohar I and Zohar II could impede MBIA Corp.’s ability to make payments when due on other policies. MBIA Corp. believes that if the NYSDFS concludes at any time that MBIA Insurance Corporation will not be able to pay its policyholder claims, the NYSDFS would likely put MBIA Insurance Corporation into a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding under Article 74 of the NYIL and/or take such other actions as the NYSDFS may deem necessary to protect the interests of MBIA Insurance Corporation’s policyholders. The determination to commence such a proceeding or take other such actions is within the exclusive control of the NYSDFS.

The Company’s loss and LAE reserves and recoveries before consolidated VIE eliminations, along with amounts that were eliminated as a result of consolidating VIEs for the international and structured finance insurance segment, which are included in the Company’s consolidated balance sheets as of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019 are presented in the following table:

The following table presents changes in the Company’s loss and LAE reserves for the nine months ended September 30, 2020.

Changes in loss and LAE reserves, with the exception of loss and LAE payments,

are recorded in “Losses and loss adjustment” expenses in the Company’s consolidated statements of operations. As of September 30, 2020, the weighted average risk-free rate used to discount the Company’s loss reserves (claim liability) was 0.71%. LAE reserves are generally expected to be settled within a

one-year

period and are not discounted. As of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019 the Company’s gross loss and LAE reserves included $33 million and $34 million, respectively, related to LAE.

The increase in the Company’s loss and LAE reserves for the nine months ended September 30, 2020, primarily related to an increase in expected payments on certain Puerto Rico exposures and an increase in insured first-lien RMBS transactions due to the decline in risk-free rates during 2020 used to present value loss reserves. This increase was partially offset by actual payments made and favorable changes in future recoveries on unpaid losses due to the decline in risk-free rates on certain Puerto Rico exposures.

Insurance loss recoverable represents the Company’s estimate of recoveries on paid claims and LAE. The Company recognizes potential recoveries on paid claims based on the probability-weighted net cash inflows present valued at applicable risk-free rates as of the measurement date. The following table presents changes in the Company’s insurance loss recoverable for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. Changes in the insurance loss recoverable, with the exception of collections, are recorded in “Losses and loss adjustment” expenses in the Company’s consolidated statements of operations.

The increase in the Company’s insurance loss recoverable reflected in the preceding table was primarily due to a portion of Puerto Rico claim payments that are expected to be

recovered

in the future as well as a decline in risk-free rates on certain Puerto Rico exposures during the nine months ended September 30, 2020. This was partially offset by a decline in expected recoveries on CDOs.

For the three months ended September 30, 2020, loss and LAE incurred primarily related to a decrease in expected salvage collections related to CDOs, an increase in incurred losses on RMBS transactions and an increase in actual and expected payments on certain Puerto Rico credits. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020, loss and LAE incurred primarily related to a decrease in expected salvage collections related to CDOs, an increase in actual and expected payments on certain Puerto Rico credits and an increase in incurred losses on first-lien RMBS transactions. Overall, risk-free rates used to discount loss reserve and recovery cash flows declined during the nine months ended September 30, 2020. The decline in risk-free rates had the impact of increasing the present value of recoveries, primarily on certain Puerto Rico credits, which was partially offset by the impact of increasing the present value of future claim payments across the Company’s insured portfolio.

Costs associated with remediating insured obligations assigned to the Company’s surveillance categories are recorded as LAE and are included in “Losses and loss adjustment” expenses on the Company’s consolidated statements of operations. For the three months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019, gross LAE related to remediating insured obligations were $8 million and $16 million, respectively. For the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019, gross LAE related to remediating insured obligations were $25 million and $26 million, respectively.