Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2019

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Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

Summary

MBIA Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries, (collectively, “MBIA” or the “Company”) operates within the financial guarantee insurance industry. MBIA manages three operating segments: 1) United States (“U.S.”) public finance insurance; 2) corporate; and 3) international and structured finance insurance. The Company’s U.S. public finance insurance business is managed through National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (“National”), the corporate segment is operated through MBIA Inc. and several of its subsidiaries, including its service company, MBIA Services Corporation (“MBIA Services”) and its international and structured finance insurance business is primarily operated through MBIA Insurance Corporation and its subsidiaries (“MBIA Corp.”).

Refer to “Note 11: Business Segments” for further information about the Company’s operating segments.

Business Developments

Puerto Rico

On January 1, 2019 and July 1, 2019, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and certain of its instrumentalities (“Puerto Rico”) defaulted on scheduled debt service for National insured bonds and National paid gross claims in the aggregate of $393 million. As of September 30, 2019, National had $2.4 billion of gross insured par outstanding related to Puerto Rico. Refer to the “Risks and Uncertainties” section below for additional information on the Company’s Puerto Rico exposures.

PREPA RSA

In September of 2019, National agreed to join the restructuring support agreement, as amended (“RSA”), with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (“PREPA”), other monoline insurers, a group of uninsured PREPA bondholders, Puerto Rico, and the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico. The restructuring transaction described in the RSA is intended to, among other things, provide a framework for the consensual resolution of the treatment of National’s insured PREPA revenue bonds in PREPA’s recovery plan. Upon consummation of the restructuring transaction, PREPA’s revenue bonds will be exchanged into new securitization bonds issued by a special purpose entity and secured by a segregated transition charge assessed on customer’s electricity bills. The closing of the restructuring transaction is subject to a number of conditions, including the Title III Court’s approval of the RSA and settlement described therein, support of a minimum of 67% of voting bondholders for a plan of adjustment that includes the proposed treatment of PREPA revenue bonds and confirmation of such plan by the Title III Court, and execution of acceptable documentation and legal opinions.

COFINA Plan of Adjustment

In February of 2019, the District Court confirmed the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (“COFINA”) Plan of Adjustment, including the settlement agreement between Puerto Rico and COFINA. National insured bondholders were given the option of commuting their insurance policy and receiving uninsured COFINA bonds or placing their new uninsured COFINA bonds into the National Custodial Trusts (the “Trusts”), receive Trust certificates and continue to benefit from a National insurance policy. The Trusts operate on a pass-through basis; as the Trusts receive debt service payments from the new COFINA bonds, or sells these new bonds, the Trusts’ cash will be paid to the Trusts’ certificate holders and National’s insured exposure will reduce accordingly. To the extent National’s policy obligations have not been satisfied by the maturity date of the original National insurance policies, the Trusts’ certificate holders will receive a claim payment from National at their maturity date for any remaining amounts. The Trusts were consolidated as variable interest entities (“VIEs”) within the U.S. public finance segment during the first quarter of 2019. Refer to “Note 4: Variable Interest Entities” for additional information about the COFINA VIEs. During the third quarter of 2019, all of the uninsured bonds held in the Trusts were sold and the proceeds were used to extinguish a substantial amount of debt issued by the Trusts.

MBIA Corp. Financing Facility

In July of 2019, MBIA Corp. consummated a financing facility (the “Refinanced Facility”) between MZ Funding LLC (“MZ Funding”) and certain purchasers, pursuant to which the purchasers or their affiliates (collectively, the “Senior Lenders”), agreed to refinance the outstanding insured senior notes of MZ Funding, and MBIA Inc. received amended subordinated notes of MZ Funding. In connection with the refinancing transaction, MZ Funding and MBIA Corp. entered into an amended and restated credit agreement (the “New Credit Agreement” and the loans thereunder, the “MBIA Loans”). MBIA Corp. issued new financial guarantee insurance policies insuring the Refinanced Facility. Refer to “Note 9: Debt” for further information on the Refinanced Facility.

Risks and Uncertainties

The Company’s financial statements include estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. The outcome of certain significant risks and uncertainties could cause the Company to revise its estimates and assumptions or could cause actual results to differ from the Company’s estimates. The discussion below highlights the significant risks and uncertainties that could have a material effect on the Company’s financial statements and business objectives in future periods.

U.S. Public Finance Market Conditions

National continues to monitor and remediate its existing insured portfolio and will seek opportunities to enhance shareholder value using its substantial financial resources, while protecting the interests of all policyholders. Certain state and local governments and territory obligors that National insures are under financial and budgetary stress. This could lead to an increase in defaults by such entities on the payment of their obligations and losses or impairments on a greater number of National’s insured transactions. National monitors and analyzes these situations and other stressed credits closely, and the overall extent and duration of this stress is uncertain.

Puerto Rico is experiencing significant fiscal stress and constrained liquidity due to, among other things, Puerto Rico’s structural budget imbalance, the lack of access to the capital markets, a stagnating local economy, net migration of people out of Puerto Rico and a high debt burden. Puerto Rico continues in its efforts to rebuild its infrastructure and to otherwise recover from the impact of Hurricane Maria in 2017, aided in part by Federal Emergency Management Agency and other federal agencies. As part of the Title III proceedings under Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act (“PROMESA”), Puerto Rico submitted several draft fiscal plans and an independent Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico (“Oversight Board”) voted to certify the most recent fiscal plan. The current plan, or any revisions thereto, can provide no assurance that National will fully recover past amounts paid or future amounts that may be covered under its insurance policies. In addition, the extent and duration of such aid is inherently uncertain, and the necessary and greater involvement of the federal government, through its actions to deliver disaster relief and other support services, in addition to the role of the Oversight Board and the role of Puerto Rico in its own recovery, heightens political risk in connection with the restructuring of legacy debt. This risk could lead the Oversight Board, Puerto Rico or the federal government to seek to extract greater concessions from creditors based on the uncertainty of Puerto Rico’s long term recovery prospects. In this event, losses at National on select Puerto Rico exposures could increase materially.

MBIA Corp. Insured Portfolio

MBIA Corp.’s primary objectives are to satisfy all claims by its policyholders and to maximize future recoveries, if any, for its senior lending and surplus note holders, and then its preferred stock holders. MBIA Corp. is executing this strategy by, among other things, pursuing various actions focused on maximizing the collection of recoveries and by reducing potential losses on its insurance exposures. MBIA Corp.’s insured portfolio performance could deteriorate and result in additional significant loss reserves and claim payments. MBIA Corp.’s ability to meet its obligations is limited by available liquidity and its ability to secure additional liquidity through financing and other transactions. There can be no assurance that MBIA Corp. will be successful in generating sufficient resources to meet its obligations.

Zohar and RMBS Recoveries

Payment of claims totaling $919 million in November of 2015 and January of 2017, on MBIA Corp.’s policies insuring the Class A-1 and A-2 notes issued by Zohar CDO 2003-1, Limited (“Zohar I”) and insuring certain notes issued by Zohar II 2005-1, Limited (“Zohar II”), entitles MBIA Corp. to reimbursement of such amounts plus interest and expenses and/or to exercise certain rights and remedies to seek recovery of such amounts. MBIA Corp. anticipates that the primary source of the recoveries will come from the monetization of the assets of Zohar I and Zohar II, which include, among other things, loans made to, and equity interests in, companies purportedly controlled by the sponsor and former collateral manager of Zohar I and Zohar II (the “Zohar Sponsor”) (all the assets of Zohar I and Zohar II, the “Zohar Assets”). On March 11, 2018, the then-director of Zohar I and Zohar II placed those funds into voluntary bankruptcy proceedings in federal bankruptcy court in the District of Delaware (the “Zohar Funds Bankruptcy Cases”). On May 21, 2018, the Court granted the Zohar funds’ motion to approve a settlement (the “Zohar Bankruptcy Settlement”) which established a process by which the debtor funds, through an independent director and a chief restructuring officer, will work with the original sponsor of the funds to monetize the Zohar Assets and repay creditors, including MBIA Corp. While the stay of litigation provided for in the settlement has expired, on September 27, 2019, the Court ruled that the monetization process will continue, which ruling has been appealed though not stayed. Salvage and subrogation recoveries related to Zohar I and Zohar II are reported within “Insurance loss recoverable” on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. Notwithstanding the Zohar Bankruptcy Settlement, there can be no assurance that the value of the Zohar Assets will be sufficient to permit MBIA Corp. to recover all or substantially all of the payments it made on Zohar I and Zohar II. In particular, on October 17, 2019, one of the companies (Dura Automotive Systems, LLC), and certain of its affiliates, filed for bankruptcy protection in federal bankruptcy court in the Middle District of Tennessee (the “Dura Bankruptcy Cases”). On November 1, 2019, the Court overseeing the Zohar Funds Bankruptcy Cases entered an Order directing that, effective November 8, 2019, the Dura Bankruptcy Cases shall be transferred to the District of Delaware. The Zohar debtors have substantial interests in the Dura debtors, and hold secured term loan indebtedness and an indirect interest in the majority of the equity in the Dura debtors. There can be no assurance that the outcome of the Dura Bankruptcy Cases will not have a material adverse impact on MBIA Corp.’s ability to recover all or substantially all of the payments it made on Zohar II.

MBIA Corp. also projects to collect excess spread from insured residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”), and to recover proceeds from Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC and DLJ Mortgage Capital, Inc. (collectively, “Credit Suisse”) arising from its failure to repurchase ineligible loans that were included in a Credit Suisse sponsored RMBS transaction. However, the amount and timing of these recoveries and collections are uncertain.

Failure to collect a substantial amount of its expected recoveries could impede MBIA Corp.’s ability to make payments when due on other policies. MBIA Corp. believes that if the New York State Department of Financial Services (“NYSDFS”) concludes at any time that MBIA Insurance Corporation will not be able to pay its policyholder claims, the NYSDFS would likely put MBIA Insurance Corporation into a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding under Article 74 of the New York Insurance Law (“NYIL”) and/or take such other actions as the NYSDFS may deem necessary to protect the interests of MBIA Insurance Corporation’s policyholders. The determination to commence such a proceeding or take other such actions is within the exclusive control of the NYSDFS.

Given the separation of MBIA Inc. and MBIA Corp. as distinct legal entities, the absence of any cross defaults between the entities and the lack of reliance by MBIA Inc. on MBIA Corp. for dividends, the Company does not believe that a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding with respect to MBIA Insurance Corporation would have any significant liquidity impact on MBIA Inc. Such a proceeding could have material adverse consequences for MBIA Corp., including the termination of insured credit default swaps (“CDS”) and other derivative contracts for which counterparties may assert market-based claims, the acceleration of debt obligations issued by affiliates and insured by MBIA Corp., the loss of control of MBIA Insurance Corporation to a rehabilitator or liquidator, and unplanned costs.

Refer to “Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves” for additional information about MBIA Corp.’s recoveries.

Corporate Liquidity

Subsequent to September 30, 2019, National declared and paid a dividend of $110 million to its ultimate parent, MBIA Inc. Based on the Company’s projections of National’s dividends, additional anticipated releases under its tax sharing agreement and related tax escrow account (“Tax Escrow Account”), and other cash inflows, the Company expects that MBIA Inc. will have sufficient cash to satisfy its debt service and general corporate needs. However, MBIA Inc. continues to have liquidity risk that could be caused by interruption of or reduction in dividends or tax payments received from operating subsidiaries, deterioration in the performance of invested assets, impaired access to the capital markets, as well as other factors, which are not anticipated at this time. Furthermore, failure by MBIA Inc. to settle liabilities that are insured by MBIA Corp. could result in claims on MBIA Corp.