Fair Value Of Financial Instruments

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2018

Note 6: Fair Value of Financial Instruments

Fair Value Measurement

Financial Assets

Financial assets held by the Company primarily consist of investments in debt securities. Substantially all of the Company’s investments are priced by independent third parties, including pricing services and brokers. Typically, the Company receives one pricing service value or broker quote for each instrument, which represents a non-binding indication of value. The Company, along with its third-party portfolio manager, reviews the assumptions, inputs and methodologies used by pricing services and brokers to obtain reasonable assurance that the prices used in its valuations reflect fair value. When the Company and its third-party portfolio manager believe a third-party quotation differs significantly from its internally developed expectation of fair value, whether higher or lower, the Company reviews its data or assumptions with the provider. This review includes comparing significant assumptions such as prepayment speeds, default ratios, forward yield curves, credit spreads and other significant quantitative inputs to internal assumptions, and working with the price provider to reconcile the differences. The price provider may subsequently provide an updated price. In the event that the price provider does not update its price, and the Company still does not agree with the price provided, its third-party portfolio manager will obtain a price from another third-party provider or use an internally developed price which it believes represents the fair value of the investment. The fair values of investments for which internal prices were used were not significant to the aggregate fair value of the Company’s investment portfolio as of September 30, 2018 or December 31, 2017. All challenges to third-party prices are reviewed by staff of the Company as well as its third-party portfolio manager with relevant expertise to ensure reasonableness of assumptions. A pricing analysis is reviewed and approved by the Company’s valuation committee.

Financial Liabilities (excluding derivative liabilities)

Financial liabilities, excluding derivative liabilities, issued by the Company primarily consist of debt issued for general corporate purposes within its corporate segment, medium-term notes (“MTNs”), investment agreements and debt issued by consolidated VIEs. The majority of the financial liabilities that the Company has elected to fair value or that require fair value reporting or disclosures are valued based on the estimated value of the underlying collateral, the Company’s or a third-party’s estimate of discounted cash flow model estimates, or quoted market values for similar products. These valuations include adjustments for expected nonperformance risk of the Company.

Derivative Liabilities

The Company’s derivative liabilities are primarily interest rate swaps and an insured credit derivative. The Company’s insured credit derivative contract is a non-traded structured credit derivative transaction and since it is highly customized, there is generally no observable market for this derivative. The Company estimates its fair value in a hypothetical market based on an internal model that incorporates market or estimated prices of similar securities that are obtained for all collateral within a transaction, the present value of the market-implied potential loss and nonperformance risk. The Company reviews its valuation model results on a quarterly basis to assess the appropriateness of the assumptions and results in light of current market activity and conditions. This review is performed by internal staff with relevant expertise.

Internal Review Process

All significant financial assets and liabilities are reviewed by the valuation committee to ensure compliance with the Company’s policies and risk procedures in the development of fair values of financial assets and liabilities. The valuation committee reviews, among other things, key assumptions used for internally developed prices, significant changes in sources and uses of inputs, including changes in model approaches, and any adjustments from third-party inputs or prices to internally developed inputs or prices. The committee also reviews any significant impairment or improvements in fair values of the financial instruments from prior periods. The committee is comprised of senior finance team members with relevant experience in the financial instruments their committee is responsible for. The committee documents its agreement with the fair value measurements reported in the Company’s consolidated financial statements.

Valuation Techniques

Valuation techniques for financial instruments measured at fair value are described below.

Fixed-Maturity Securities Held as Available-For-Sale, Investments Carried at Fair Value, Investments Pledged as Collateral and Short-term Investments

These investments include investments in U.S. Treasury and government agencies, state and municipal bonds, foreign governments, corporate obligations, mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), asset-backed securities, money market securities, and perpetual debt and equity securities.

These investments are generally valued based on recently executed transaction prices or quoted market prices. When quoted market prices are not available, fair value is generally determined using quoted prices of similar investments or a valuation model based on observable and unobservable inputs. Inputs vary depending on the type of investment. Observable inputs include contractual cash flows, interest rate yield curves, CDS spreads, prepayment and volatility scores, diversity scores, cross-currency basis index spreads, and credit spreads for structures similar to the financial instrument in terms of issuer, maturity and seniority. Unobservable inputs include cash flow projections and the value of any credit enhancement.

The investment in the fixed-income fund was measured at fair value by applying the net asset value per share practical expedient. The investment in the fixed-income fund may be redeemed on a quarterly basis with prior redemption notification of ninety days subject to withdrawal limitations. The investment is required to be held for a minimum of twelve months, and any subsequent quarterly redemption is limited to 25% of the investment or a complete redemption over four consecutive quarters in the amounts of 25%, 33%, 50%, and 100% of the remaining investment balance as of the first, second, third and fourth consecutive quarters, respectively.

Investments based on quoted market prices of identical investments in active markets are classified as Level 1 of the fair value hierarchy. Level 1 investments generally consist of U.S. Treasury and government agency, money market securities and perpetual debt and equity securities. Quoted market prices of investments in less active markets, as well as investments which are valued based on other than quoted prices for which the inputs are observable, such as interest rate yield curves, are categorized in Level 2 of the fair value hierarchy. Investments that contain significant inputs that are not observable are categorized as Level 3.

Cash and Cash Equivalents

The carrying amounts of cash and cash equivalents approximate fair value due to the short-term nature and credit worthiness of these instruments and are categorized in Level 1 of the fair value hierarchy.

Loans Receivable at Fair Value

Loans receivable at fair value are comprised of loans held by consolidated VIEs consisting of residential mortgage and corporate loans. Fair values of residential mortgage loans are determined using quoted prices for MBS issued by the respective VIE and adjusted for the fair values of the financial guarantees provided by MBIA Corp. on the related MBS. The fair values of the financial guarantees consider expected claim payments, net of recoveries, under MBIA Corp.’s policies. Fair values of corporate loans, which are to privately held companies, are based on methodologies that generally use comparable EBITDA multiples and the most current available EBITDAs.

Loan Repurchase Commitments

Loan repurchase commitments are obligations owed by the sellers/servicers of mortgage loans to MBIA as reimbursement of paid claims. Loan repurchase commitments are assets of the consolidated VIEs. This asset represents the rights of MBIA against the sellers/servicers for breaches of representations and warranties that the securitized residential mortgage loans sold to the trust to comply with stated underwriting guidelines and for the sellers/servicers to cure, replace, or repurchase mortgage loans. Fair value measurements of loan repurchase commitments represent the amounts owed by the sellers/servicers to MBIA as reimbursement of paid claims. Loan repurchase commitments are not securities and no quoted prices or comparable market transaction information are observable or available. Fair values of loan repurchase commitments are determined using discounted cash flow techniques and are categorized in Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy.

Other Assets

A VIE consolidated by the Company has entered into a derivative instrument consisting of a cross currency swap. The cross currency swap is entered into to manage the variability in cash flows resulting from fluctuations in foreign currency rates. The fair value of the VIE derivative is determined based on inputs from unobservable cash flows projection of the derivative, discounted using observable discount rates. As the significant inputs are unobservable, the derivative contract is categorized in Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy.

Other assets also include receivables representing the right to receive reimbursement payments on claim payments expected to be made on certain insured VIE liabilities due to risk mitigating transactions with third parties executed to effectively defease, or, in-substance commute the Company’s exposure on its financial guarantee policies. The right to receive reimbursement payments is based on the value of the Company’s financial guarantee determined using the cash flow model. The fair value of the financial guarantee primarily contains unobservable inputs and is categorized in Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy.

Medium-term Notes at Fair Value

The Company has elected to measure certain MTNs at fair value on a recurring basis. The fair values of certain MTNs are based on quoted market prices provided by third-party sources, where available. When quoted market prices are not available, the Company applies a matrix pricing grid to determine fair value based on the quoted market prices received for similar instruments and considering the MTNs’ stated maturity and interest rate. Nonperformance risk is included in the quoted market prices and the matrix pricing grid. MTNs are categorized in Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy.

Variable Interest Entity Notes

The fair values of VIE notes are determined based on recently executed transaction prices or quoted prices where observable. When position-specific quoted prices are not observable, fair values are based on quoted prices of similar securities. Fair values based on quoted prices of similar securities may be adjusted for factors unique to the securities, including any credit enhancement. Observable inputs include interest rate yield curves and bond spreads of similar securities. Unobservable inputs include the value of any credit enhancement. VIE notes are categorized in Level 2 or Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy based on the lowest level input that is significant to the fair value measurement in its entirety.

Derivatives

The corporate segment has entered into derivative transactions primarily consisting of interest rate swaps. Fair values of over-the-counter derivatives are determined using valuation models based on observable inputs, nonperformance risk of the Company and nonperformance risk of the counterparties. Observable and market-based inputs include interest rate yields, credit spreads and volatilities. These derivatives are categorized in Level 2 or Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy based on the lowest level input that is significant to the fair value measurement in its entirety.

Derivatives—Insurance

The derivative contracts insured by the Company cannot be legally traded and generally do not have observable market prices. The Company determines the fair values of insured credit derivatives using valuation models based on observable inputs and considering nonperformance risk of the Company. Negotiated settlements are also considered to validate the valuation models and to reflect assumptions the Company believes market participants would use.

Valuation Model Overview

The Company uses an internally developed Direct Price Model to value its insured credit derivative that incorporates market prices or estimated prices of similar securities that are obtained for all collateral within a transaction, the present value of the market-implied potential losses, and nonperformance risk. The valuation of the insured credit derivative includes the impact of its credit standing. The insured credit derivative is categorized in Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy based on unobservable inputs that are significant to the fair value measurement in its entirety.

The Company also has other derivative liabilities as a result of a commutation that occurred in 2014. The fair value of the derivative is determined using a discounted cash flow model. Key inputs include unobservable cash flows projected over the expected term of the derivative. As the significant inputs are unobservable, the derivative contract is categorized in Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy.

Other Liabilities

Stock warrants issued by the Company are valued using the Black-Scholes model and are recorded at fair value. Inputs into the warrant valuation include the Company’s stock price, the strike price of the warrant, time to expiration, a volatility parameter, interest rates, and dividend data. As all significant inputs are market-based and observable, warrants are categorized in Level 2 of the fair value hierarchy. As of September 30, 2018, there were no warrants outstanding.

Other payable relates to certain contingent consideration. The fair value of the liability is based on the cash flow methodologies using observable and unobservable inputs. Unobservable inputs include invested asset balances and asset management fees that are significant to the fair value estimate and the liability is categorized in Level 3 of the fair value hierarchy.

Significant Unobservable Inputs

The following tables provide quantitative information regarding the significant unobservable inputs used by the Company for assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis as of September 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017.

		Fair Value
		as of				Range
		September 30,				(Weighted
In millions		2018		Valuation Techniques	Unobservable Input	Average)
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
	Loans receivable at fair value	$	428	Market prices adjusted for financial	Impact of financial guarantee⁽¹⁾	-18% - 63% (-5%)
				guarantees provided to VIE obligations

	Loan repurchase commitments		415	Discounted cash flow	Recovery rates⁽²⁾
					Breach rates⁽²⁾

Liabilities of consolidated VIEs:
	Variable interest entity notes		382	Market prices of VIE assets adjusted for	Impact of financial guarantee	0% - 65% (40%)
				financial guarantees provided

Credit derivative liabilities:
	CMBS		27	Direct Price Model	Nonperformance risk	54% - 54% (54%)

Other derivative liabilities			7	Discounted cash flow	Cash flows	$0 - $49 ($25)⁽³⁾

____________
(1) - Negative percentage represents financial guarantee policies in a receivable position.
(2) - Recovery rates and breach rates include estimates about potential variations in the outcome of litigation with a counterparty.
(3) - Midpoint of cash flows are used for the weighted average.

		Fair Value
		as of				Range
		December 31,				(Weighted
In millions		2017		Valuation Techniques	Unobservable Input	Average)
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
	Loans receivable at fair value	$	1,679	Market prices adjusted for financial	Impact of financial guarantee⁽¹⁾	-25% - 35% (-2%)
				guarantees provided to VIE obligations
				Multiples of EBITDA	Multiples⁽²⁾

	Loan repurchase commitments		407	Discounted cash flow	Recovery rates⁽³⁾
					Breach rates⁽³⁾

Liabilities of consolidated VIEs:
	Variable interest entity notes		406	Market prices of VIE assets	Impact of financial guarantee	0% - 60% (36%)
				adjusted for financial guarantees provided

Credit derivative liabilities:
	CMBS		63	Direct Price Model	Nonperformance risk	54% - 54% (54%)


Other derivative liabilities			4	Discounted cash flow	Cash flows	$0 - $49 ($25)⁽⁴⁾
	____________
	(1) - Negative percentage represents financial guarantee policies in a receivable position.
	(2) - Unobservable inputs are primarily based on comparable companies' EBITDA multiples.
	(3) - Recovery rates and breach rates include estimates about potential variations in the outcome of litigation with a counterparty.
	(4) - Midpoint of cash flows are used for the weighted average.

Sensitivity of Significant Unobservable Inputs

As of September 30, 2018, the significant unobservable input used in the fair value measurement of the Company’s loans receivable at fair value of consolidated VIEs is the impact of the financial guarantee. The fair value of loans receivable is calculated by subtracting the value of the financial guarantee from the market value of VIE liabilities. The value of a financial guarantee is estimated by the Company as the present value of expected cash payments, net of recoveries, under the policy. As the value of the financial guarantee provided by the Company under the insurance policy increases, there is a lower expected cash flow on the underlying loans receivable of the VIE. This results in a lower fair value of the loans receivable in relation to the obligations of the VIE. In addition to the impact of the financial guarantee, as of December 31, 2017, the fair value of loans receivable also includes certain methodologies using multiples of EBITDA. Multiples are external factors that are considered when determining the fair values of corporate loans. These loans are to privately held companies for which the Company has limited information.

The significant unobservable inputs used in the fair value measurement of the Company’s loan repurchase commitments of consolidated VIEs are the recovery rates and breach rates. Recovery rates reflect the estimates of future cash flows reduced for litigation delays and risks and/or potential financial distress of the sellers/servicers. The estimated recoveries of the loan repurchase commitments may differ from the actual recoveries that may be received in the future. Breach rates represent the rate at which mortgages fail to comply with stated representations and warranties of the sellers/servicers. Significant increases or decreases in the recovery rates and the breach rates would result in significantly higher or lower fair values of the loan repurchase commitments, respectively. Additionally, changes in the legal environment and the ability of the counterparties to pay would impact the recovery rate assumptions, which could significantly impact the fair value measurement. Any significant challenges by the counterparties to the Company’s determination of breaches of representations and warranties could have a material adverse impact on the fair value measurement. Recovery rates and breach rates are determined independently. Changes in one input will not necessarily have any impact on the other input.

The significant unobservable input used in the fair value measurement of the Company’s VIE notes of consolidated VIEs is the impact of the financial guarantee. The fair value of VIE notes is calculated by adding the value of the financial guarantee to the market value of VIE assets. The value of a financial guarantee is estimated by the Company as the present value of expected cash payments under the policy. As the value of the guarantee provided by the Company to the obligations issued by the VIE increases, the credit support adds value to the liabilities of the VIE. This results in an increase in the fair value of the liabilities of the VIE.

The significant unobservable input used in the fair value measurement of MBIA Corp.’s commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”) credit derivative, which is valued using the Direct Price Model, is nonperformance risk. The nonperformance risk is an assumption of MBIA Corp.’s own ability to pay and whether MBIA Corp. will have the necessary resources to pay the obligations as they come due. Any significant increase or decrease in MBIA Corp.’s nonperformance risk would result in a decrease or increase in the fair value of the derivative liabilities, respectively.

The significant unobservable input used in the fair value measurement of MBIA Corp.’s other derivatives, which are valued using a discounted cash flow model, is the estimates of future cash flows discounted using market rates and CDS spreads. Any significant increase or decrease in future cash flows would result in an increase or decrease in the fair value of the derivative liability, respectively.

Fair Value Measurements

The following tables present the fair value of the Company’s assets (including short-term investments) and liabilities measured and reported at fair value on a recurring basis as of September 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017:

				Fair Value Measurements at Reporting Date Using
				Quoted Prices in		Significant
				Active Markets		Other		Significant
				for Identical		Observable		Unobservable			Balance as of
				Assets		Inputs		Inputs			September 30,
In millions				(Level 1)		(Level 2)		(Level 3)			2018
Assets:
Fixed-maturity investments:
	U.S. Treasury and government agency			$	765	$	89	$	-		$	854
	State and municipal bonds				-		757		-			757
	Foreign governments				-		11		-			11
	Corporate obligations				20		1,603		-			1,623
	Mortgage-backed securities:
		Residential mortgage-backed agency			-		220		-			220
		Residential mortgage-backed non-agency			-		30		-			30
		Commercial mortgage-backed			-		50		7	⁽¹⁾		57
	Asset-backed securities:
		Collateralized debt obligations			-		146		-			146
		Other asset-backed			-		217		4	⁽¹⁾		221
			Total fixed-maturity investments		785		3,123		11			3,919
Money market securities					147		-		-			147
Perpetual debt and equity securities					26		38		-			64
Fixed-income fund					-		-		-			75	⁽²⁾
Cash and cash equivalents					167		-		-			167
Derivative assets:
	Non-insured derivative assets:
		Interest rate derivatives			-		2		-			2

				Fair Value Measurements at Reporting Date Using
				Quoted Prices in		Significant
				Active Markets		Other		Significant
				for Identical		Observable		Unobservable			Balance as of
				Assets		Inputs		Inputs			September 30,
In millions				(Level 1)		(Level 2)		(Level 3)			2018
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
	Corporate obligations				-		9		5	⁽¹⁾		14
	Mortgage-backed securities:
		Residential mortgage-backed non-agency			-		98		-			98
		Commercial mortgage-backed			-		35		-			35
	Asset-backed securities:
		Collateralized debt obligations			-		6		1	⁽¹⁾		7
		Other asset-backed			-		9		-			9
	Cash				12		-		-			12
	Loans receivable at fair value:
		Residential loans receivable			-		-		428			428
	Loan repurchase commitments				-		-		415			415
	Other assets:
		Currency derivatives			-		-		14	⁽¹⁾		14
		Other			-		-		15	⁽¹⁾		15
Total assets				$	1,137	$	3,320	$	889		$	5,421
Liabilities:
Medium-term notes				$	-	$	-	$	123	⁽¹⁾	$	123
Derivative liabilities:
	Insured derivatives:
		Credit derivatives			-		2		27			29
	Non-insured derivatives:
		Interest rate derivatives			-		137		-			137
		Other			-		-		7			7
Other liabilities:
	Other payable				-		-		5	⁽¹⁾		5
Liabilities of consolidated VIEs:
	Variable interest entity notes				-		327		382			709
Total liabilities				$	-	$	466	$	544		$	1,010
____________
(1) - Unobservable inputs are either not developed by the Company or do not significantly impact the overall fair values of the aggregate financial assets and liabilities.
(2) - Investment that was measured at fair value by applying the net asset value per share practical expedient, and was required not to be classified in the fair value hierarchy.

				Fair Value Measurements at Reporting Date Using
				Quoted Prices in		Significant
				Active Markets		Other		Significant
				for Identical		Observable		Unobservable			Balance as of
				Assets		Inputs		Inputs			December 31,
In millions				(Level 1)		(Level 2)		(Level 3)			2017
Assets:
Fixed-maturity investments:
	U.S. Treasury and government agency			$	1,256	$	96	$	-		$	1,352
	State and municipal bonds				-		858		-			858
	Foreign governments				-		10		-			10
	Corporate obligations				-		1,338		2	⁽¹⁾		1,340
	Mortgage-backed securities:
		Residential mortgage-backed agency			-		368		-			368
		Residential mortgage-backed non-agency			-		32		-			32
		Commercial mortgage-backed			-		60		7	⁽¹⁾		67
	Asset-backed securities:
		Collateralized debt obligations			-		118		-			118
		Other asset-backed			-		178		5	⁽¹⁾		183
			Total fixed-maturity investments		1,256		3,058		14			4,328
Money market securities					180		-		-			180
Perpetual debt and equity securities					26		37		-			63
Fixed-income fund					-		-		-			82	⁽²⁾
Cash and cash equivalents					122		-		-			122
Derivative assets:
	Non-insured derivative assets:
		Interest rate derivatives			-		2		-			2

				Fair Value Measurements at Reporting Date Using
				Quoted Prices in		Significant
				Active Markets		Other		Significant
				for Identical		Observable		Unobservable			Balance as of
				Assets		Inputs		Inputs			December 31,
In millions				(Level 1)		(Level 2)		(Level 3)			2017
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
	Corporate obligations				-		19		-			19
	Mortgage-backed securities:
		Residential mortgage-backed non-agency			-		108		-			108
		Commercial mortgage-backed			-		30		6	⁽¹⁾		36
	Asset-backed securities:
		Collateralized debt obligations			-		8		1	⁽¹⁾		9
		Other asset-backed			-		10		-			10
	Cash				24		-		-			24
	Loans receivable at fair value:
		Residential loans receivable			-		-		759			759
		Corporate loans receivable			-		-		920			920
	Loan repurchase commitments				-		-		407			407
	Other assets:
		Currency derivatives			-		-		19	⁽¹⁾		19
		Other			-		-		14	⁽¹⁾		14
Total assets				$	1,608	$	3,272	$	2,140		$	7,102
Liabilities:
Medium-term notes				$	-	$	-	$	115	⁽¹⁾	$	115
Derivative liabilities:
	Insured derivatives:
		Credit derivatives			-		2		63			65
	Non-insured derivatives:
		Interest rate derivatives			-		193		-			193
		Other			-		-		4			4
Other liabilities:
	Warrants				-		6		-			6
	Other payable				-		-		7	⁽¹⁾		7
Liabilities of consolidated VIEs:
	Variable interest entity notes				-		663		406			1,069
Total liabilities				$	-	$	864	$	595		$	1,459
____________
(1) - Unobservable inputs are either not developed by the Company or do not significantly impact the overall fair values of the aggregate financial assets and liabilities.
(2) - Investment that was measured at fair value by applying the net asset value per share practical expedient, and was required not to be classified in the fair value hierarchy.

Level 3 assets at fair value as of September 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017 represented approximately 16% and 30%, respectively, of total assets measured at fair value. Level 3 liabilities at fair value as of September 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017 represented approximately 54% and 41%, respectively, of total liabilities measured at fair value.

The following tables present the fair values and carrying values of the Company’s assets and liabilities that are disclosed at fair value but not reported at fair value on the Company’s consolidated balance sheets as of September 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017:

		Fair Value Measurements at Reporting Date Using
		Quoted Prices in		Significant		Significant		Fair Value		Carry Value
		Active Markets for		Other Observable		Unobservable		Balance as of		Balance as of
		Identical Assets		Inputs		Inputs		September 30,		September 30,
In millions		(Level 1)		(Level 2)		(Level 3)		2018		2018
Assets:
	Other investments	$	-	$	1	$	-	$	1	$	1
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
	Investments held-to-maturity		-		-		901		901		890
Total assets		$	-	$	1	$	901	$	902	$	891
Liabilities:
	Long-term debt	$	-	$	1,132	$	-	$	1,132	$	2,218
	Medium-term notes		-		-		416		416		615
	Investment agreements		-		-		381		381		314
Liabilities of consolidated VIEs:
	Variable interest entity notes		-		382		900		1,282		1,251
Total liabilities		$	-	$	1,514	$	1,697	$	3,211	$	4,398
Financial Guarantees:
	Gross	$	-	$	-	$	1,231	$	1,231	$	100
	Ceded		-		-		68		68		38

		Fair Value Measurements at Reporting Date Using
		Quoted Prices in		Significant		Significant		Fair Value		Carry Value
		Active Markets for		Other Observable		Unobservable		Balance as of		Balance as of
		Identical Assets		Inputs		Inputs		December 31,		December 31,
In millions		(Level 1)		(Level 2)		(Level 3)		2017		2017
Assets:
	Other investments	$	-	$	2	$	-	$	2	$	2
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
	Investments held-to-maturity		-		-		916		916		890
Total assets		$	-	$	2	$	916	$	918	$	892
Liabilities:
	Long-term debt	$	-	$	1,002	$	-	$	1,002	$	2,121
	Medium-term notes		-		-		406		406		650
	Investment agreements		-		-		433		433		337
Liabilities of consolidated VIEs:
	Variable interest entity notes		-		352		916		1,268		1,220
Total liabilities		$	-	$	1,354	$	1,755	$	3,109	$	4,328
Financial Guarantees:
	Gross	$	-	$	-	$	1,785	$	1,785	$	1,220
	Ceded		-		-		61		61		39

The following tables present information about changes in Level 3 assets (including short-term investments) and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis for the three months ended September 30, 2018 and 2017:

Changes in Level 3 Assets and Liabilities Measured at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2018
																										Change in
																										Unrealized
																										Gains
																										(Losses) for
																										the Period
																										Included in
					Unrealized																					Earnings
					Gains /		Unrealized		Foreign																	for Assets
					(Losses)		Gains /		Exchange																	still held
	Balance,		Realized		Included		(Losses)		Recognized										Transfers		Transfers					as of
	Beginning		Gains /		in		Included		in OCI or										into		out of			Ending		September 30,
In millions	of Period		(Losses)		Earnings		in OCI		Earnings		Purchases		Issuances		Settlements		Sales		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Level 3⁽¹⁾			Balance		2018
Assets:
Commercial
mortgage-backed	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	7	$	-	$		7	$	-
Other asset-backed		6		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		(2)			4		-
Assets of
consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations		5		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-			5		-
Collateralized debt
obligations		1		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-			1		-
Loans receivable-
residential		683		-		20		-		-		-		-		(24)		(251)		-		-			428		21
Loan repurchase
commitments		415		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-			415		-
Currency
derivatives		14		-		2		-		(2)		-		-		-		-		-		-			14		-
Other		14		-		1		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-			15		1
Total assets	$	1,138	$	-	$	23	$	-	$	(2)	$	-	$	-	$	(24)	$	(251)	$	7	$	(2)		$	889	$	22

																									Change in
																									Unrealized
																									(Gains)
																									Losses for
																									the Period
																									Included in
					Unrealized		Unrealized																		Earnings for
					(Gains) /		(Gains) /		Foreign																Liabilities
					Losses		Losses		Exchange																still held
	Balance,		Realized		Included		Included in		Recognized										Transfers		Transfers				as of
	Beginning		(Gains) /		in		Credit Risk		in OCI or										into		out of		Ending		September 30,
In millions	of Period		Losses		Earnings		in OCI		Earnings		Purchases		Issuances		Settlements		Sales		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Balance		2018
Liabilities:
Medium-term notes	$	149	$	(5)	$	(1)	$	11	$	(1)	$	-	$	-	$	(30)	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	123	$	(2)
Credit derivatives		31		6		(4)		-		-		-		-		(6)		-		-		-		27		(4)
Other derivatives		4		-		3		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		7		3
Other payable		5		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		5		-
Liabilities of
consolidated VIEs:
VIE notes		389		10		3		(11)		5		-		1		(15)		-		-		-		382		8
Total liabilities	$	578	$	11	$	1	$	-	$	4	$	-	$	1	$	(51)	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	544	$	5
_______________
(1) - Transferred in and out at the end of the period.

Changes in Level 3 Assets and Liabilities Measured at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2017
																									Change in
																									Unrealized
																									Gains
																									(Losses) for
																									the Period
																									Included in
					Unrealized																				Earnings for
					Gains /		Unrealized		Foreign																Assets
					(Losses)		Gains /		Exchange																still held
	Balance,		Realized		Included		(Losses)		Recognized										Transfers		Transfers				as of
	Beginning		Gains /		in		Included		in OCI or										into		out of		Ending		September 30,
In millions	of Period		(Losses)		Earnings		in OCI		Earnings		Purchases		Issuances		Settlements		Sales		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Balance		2017
Assets:
Commercial
mortgage-backed	$	7	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	(7)	$	-	$	-
Other asset-backed		5		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		5		-
Assets of
consolidated VIEs:
Commercial
mortgage-backed		3		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		(3)		-		-		-		-
Collateralized debt
obligations		1		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		1		-
Loans receivable-
residential		815		-		2		-		-		-		-		(58)		-		-		-		759		2
Loans receivable-
corporate		875		-		4		-		-		-		-		(6)		-		-		-		873		4
Loan repurchase commitments		407		-		(1)		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		406		(1)
Currency derivatives		9		-		3		-		1		-		-		-		-		-		-		13		4
Other		-		-		-		-		-		17		-		-		-		-		-		17		-
Total assets	$	2,122	$	-	$	8	$	-	$	1	$	17	$	-	$	(64)	$	(3)	$	-	$	(7)	$	2,074	$	9

																									Change in
																									Unrealized
																									(Gains)
																									Losses for
																									the Period
																									Included in
					Unrealized																				Earnings for
					(Gains) /		Unrealized		Foreign																Liabilities
					Losses		(Gains) /		Exchange																still held
	Balance,		Realized		Included		Losses		Recognized										Transfers		Transfers				as of
	Beginning		(Gains) /		in		Included		in OCI or										into		out of		Ending		September 30,
In millions	of Period		Losses		Earnings		in OCI		Earnings		Purchases		Issuances		Settlements		Sales		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Balance		2017
Liabilities:
Medium-term notes	$	123	$	-	$	(1)	$	-	$	5	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	127	$	4
Credit derivatives		80		7		(6)		-		-		-		-		(7)		-		-		-		74		(6)
Other derivatives		4		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		4		-
Other payable		-		-		1		-		-		6		-		-		-		-		-		7		1
Liabilities of
consolidated VIEs:
VIE notes		491		-		4		-		-		-		-		(14)		(51)		-		-		430		4
Total liabilities	$	698	$	7	$	(2)	$	-	$	5	$	6	$	-	$	(21)	$	(51)	$	-	$	-	$	642	$	3
_______________
(1) - Transferred in and out at the end of the period.

For the three months ended September 30, 2018, sales include the impact of the deconsolidation of VIEs. Refer to “Note 4: Variable Interest Entities” for additional information about the deconsolidation of VIEs. For the three months ended September 30, 2018, transfers into Level 3 and out of Level 2 were related to CMBS, where inputs, which are significant to their valuation, became unobservable during the quarter. These inputs included spreads, prepayment speeds, default speeds, default severities, yield curves observable at commonly quoted intervals, and market corroborated inputs. Other asset-backed comprised the instruments transferred out of Level 3 where inputs, which are significant to their valuation, became observable during the quarter. There were no transfers into or out of Level 1 for the three months ended September 30, 2018.

For the three months ended September 30, 2017, there were no transfers into Level 3 and out of Level 2. CMBS comprised the instruments transferred out of Level 3 where inputs, which are significant to their valuation, became observable during the quarter. These inputs included spreads, prepayment speeds, default speeds, default severities, yield curves observable at commonly quoted intervals, and market corroborated inputs. There were no transfers into or out of Level 1 for the three months ended September 30, 2017.

All Level 1, 2 and 3 designations are made at the end of each accounting period.

Changes in Level 3 Assets and Liabilities Measured at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2018
																									Change in
																									Unrealized
																									Gains
																									(Losses) for
																									the Period
																									Included in
					Unrealized																				Earnings for
					Gains /		Unrealized		Foreign																Assets
					(Losses)		Gains /		Exchange																still held
	Balance,		Realized		Included		(Losses)		Recognized										Transfers		Transfers				as of
	Beginning		Gains /		in		Included		in OCI or										into		out of		Ending		September 30,
In millions	of Year		(Losses)		Earnings		in OCI		Earnings		Purchases		Issuances		Settlements		Sales		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Balance		2018
Assets:
Corporate obligations	$	2	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	(2)	$	-	$	-
Commercial
mortgage-backed		7		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		7		(7)		7		-
Other asset-backed		5		-		-		-		-		5		-		(2)		(2)		-		(2)		4		-
Assets of
consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		(1)		-		6		-		5		-
Commercial
mortgage-backed		6		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		(6)		-		-
Collateralized debt
obligations		1		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		1		-
Loans receivable-
residential		759		-		26		-		-		-		-		(106)		(251)		-		-		428		23
Loans receivable-
corporate		920		-		11		-		-		-		-		(6)		(925)		-		-		-		-
Loan repurchase
commitments		407		-		8		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		415		8
Currency
derivatives		19		-		(3)		-		(2)		-		-		-		-		-		-		14		(5)
Other		14		-		1		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		15		1
Total assets	$	2,140	$	-	$	43	$	-	$	(2)	$	5	$	-	$	(115)	$	(1,178)	$	13	$	(17)	$	889	$	27

																									Change in
																									Unrealized
																									(Gains)
																									Losses for
																									the Period
																									Included in
					Unrealized		Unrealized																		Earnings for
					(Gains) /		(Gains) /		Foreign																Liabilities
					Losses		Losses		Exchange																still held
	Balance,		Realized		Included		Included in		Recognized										Transfers		Transfers				as of
	Beginning		(Gains) /		in		Credit Risk		in OCI or										into		out of		Ending		September 30,
In millions	of Year		Losses		Earnings		in OCI		Earnings		Purchases		Issuances		Settlements		Sales		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Balance		2018
Liabilities:
Medium-term notes	$	115	$	(5)	$	(1)	$	51	$	(7)	$	-	$	-	$	(30)	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	123	$	(8)
Credit derivatives		63		49		(36)		-		-		-		-		(49)		-		-		-		27		(36)
Other derivatives		4		-		3		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		7		3
Other payable		7		-		2		-		-		-		-		(4)		-		-		-		5		2
Liabilities of
consolidated VIEs:
VIE notes		406		22		(12)		(10)		3		-		7		(34)		-		-		-		382		(9)
Total liabilities	$	595	$	66	$	(44)	$	41	$	(4)	$	-	$	7	$	(117)	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	544	$	(48)
_______________
(1) - Transferred in and out at the end of the period.

Changes in Level 3 Assets and Liabilities Measured at Fair Value on a Recurring Basis for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2017
																									Change in
																									Unrealized
																									Gains
																									(Losses) for
																									the Period
																									Included in
					Unrealized																				Earnings for
					Gains /		Unrealized		Foreign																Assets
					(Losses)		Gains /		Exchange																still held
	Balance,		Realized		Included		(Losses)		Recognized										Transfers		Transfers				as of
	Beginning		Gains /		in		Included		in OCI or										into		out of		Ending		September 30,
In millions	of Year		(Losses)		Earnings		in OCI		Earnings		Purchases		Issuances		Settlements		Sales		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Balance		2017
Assets:
Corporate obligations	$	2	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	(2)	$	-	$	-
Commercial
mortgage-backed		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		7		(7)		-		-
Collateralized debt
obligations		15		-		-		-		-		-		-		(7)		-		-		(8)		-		-
Other asset-backed		44		-		-		2		-		-		-		(41)		-		-		-		5		-
State and municipal
bonds		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		1		(1)		-		-
Assets of
consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		(2)		-		6		(4)		-		-
Commercial
mortgage-backed		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		(3)		3		-		-		-
Collateralized debt
obligations		1		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		1		-
Other asset-backed		1		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		1		(2)		-		-
Loans receivable-
residential		916		-		29		-		-		-		-		(186)		-		-		-		759		29
Loans receivable-
corporate		150		-		36		-		-		719		-		(32)		-		-		-		873		36
Loan repurchase
commitments		404		-		2		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		406		2
Currency derivatives		19		-		(2)		-		(4)		-		-		-		-		-		-		13		(6)
Other		-		-		-		-		-		17		-		-		-		-		-		17		-
Total assets	$	1,552	$	-	$	65	$	2	$	(4)	$	736	$	-	$	(268)	$	(3)	$	18	$	(24)	$	2,074	$	61

																									Change in
																									Unrealized
																									(Gains)
																									Losses for
																									the Period
																									Included in
					Unrealized																				Earnings for
					(Gains) /		Unrealized		Foreign																Liabilities
					Losses		(Gains) /		Exchange																still held
	Balance,		Realized		Included		Losses		Recognized										Transfers		Transfers				as of
	Beginning		(Gains) /		in		Included		in OCI or										into		out of		Ending		September 30,
In millions	of Year		Losses		Earnings		in OCI		Earnings		Purchases		Issuances		Settlements		Sales		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Level 3⁽¹⁾		Balance		2017
Liabilities:
Medium-term notes	$	101	$	-	$	13	$	-	$	13	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	127	$	26
Credit derivatives		64		41		10		-		-		-		-		(41)		-		-		-		74		12
Other derivatives		20		-		18		-		-		-		-		(34)		-		-		-		4		18
Other payable		-		-		1		-		-		6		-		-		-		-		-		7		1
Liabilities of
consolidated VIEs:
VIE notes		476		-		56		-		-		-		-		(51)		(51)		-		-		430		56
Total liabilities	$	661	$	41	$	98	$	-	$	13	$	6	$	-	$	(126)	$	(51)	$	-	$	-	$	642	$	113
_______________
(1) - Transferred in and out at the end of the period.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2018, sales include the impact of the deconsolidation of VIEs. Refer to “Note 4: Variable Interest Entities” for additional information about the deconsolidation of VIEs. For the nine months ended September 30, 2018, transfers into Level 3 and out of Level 2 were principally related to CMBS and corporate obligations, where inputs, which are significant to their valuation, became unobservable during the period. CMBS, corporate obligations and other asset-backed comprised the majority of the instruments transferred out of Level 3 where inputs, which are significant to their valuation, became observable during the period. These inputs included spreads, prepayment speeds, default speeds, default severities, yield curves observable at commonly quoted intervals, and market corroborated inputs. There were no transfers into or out of Level 1.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2017, transfers into Level 3 and out of Level 2 were principally related to CMBS and corporate obligations, where inputs, which are significant to their valuation, became unobservable during the period. CDOs, CMBS and corporate obligations comprised the majority of the instruments transferred out of Level 3 where inputs, which are significant to their valuation, became observable during the period. These inputs included spreads, prepayment speeds, default speeds, default severities, yield curves observable at commonly quoted intervals, and market corroborated inputs. There were no transfers into or out of Level 1.

All Level 1, 2 and 3 designations are made at the end of each accounting period.

Gains and losses (realized and unrealized) included in earnings related to Level 3 assets and liabilities for the three months ended September 30, 2018 and 2017 are reported on the Company’s consolidated statements of operations as follows:


		Three Months Ended September 30, 2018				Three Months Ended September 30, 2017
				Change in				Change in
				Unrealized				Unrealized
				Gains (Losses)				Gains (Losses)
				for the				for the
				Period Included				Period Included
				in Earnings				in Earnings
				for Assets				for Assets
				and				and
		Total Gains		Liabilities still		Total Gains		Liabilities still
		(Losses)		held as of		(Losses)		held as of
		Included		September 30,		Included		September 30,
In millions		in Earnings		2018		in Earnings		2017
Revenues:
	Unrealized gains (losses) on
	insured derivatives	$	4	$	4	$	6	$	6
	Realized gains (losses) and other
	settlements on insured derivatives		(6)		-		(7)		-
	Net gains (losses) on financial instruments
	at fair value and foreign exchange		4		(1)		(4)		(4)
	Other net realized gains (losses)		-		-		(1)		(1)
	Revenues of consolidated VIEs:
	Net gains (losses) on financial instruments
	at fair value and foreign exchange		3		14		5		5
Total		$	5	$	17	$	(1)	$	6

Gains and losses (realized and unrealized) included in earnings relating to Level 3 assets and liabilities for the nine months ended September 30, 2018 and 2017 are reported on the Company’s consolidated statements of operations as follows:


		Nine Months Ended September 30, 2018				Nine Months Ended September 30, 2017
				Change in				Change in
				Unrealized				Unrealized
				Gains (Losses)				Gains (Losses)
				for the				for the
				Period Included				Period Included
				in Earnings				in Earnings
				for Assets				for Assets
				and				and
		Total Gains		Liabilities still		Total Gains		Liabilities still
		(Losses)		held as of		(Losses)		held as of
		Included		September 30,		Included		September 30,
In millions		in Earnings		2018		in Earnings		2017
Revenues:
	Unrealized gains (losses) on
	insured derivatives	$	36	$	36	$	(10)	$	(12)
	Realized gains (losses) and other
	settlements on insured derivatives		(49)		-		(41)		-
	Net gains (losses) on financial instruments
	at fair value and foreign exchange		10		5		(44)		(44)
	Other net realized gains (losses)		(2)		(2)		(1)		(1)
	Revenues of consolidated VIEs:
	Net gains (losses) on financial instruments
	at fair value and foreign exchange		28		36		5		5
Total		$	23	$	75	$	(91)	$	(52)

Fair Value Option

The Company elected to record at fair value certain financial instruments that have been consolidated in connection with the adoption of the accounting guidance for consolidation of VIEs, among others.

The following table presents the gains and (losses) included in the Company’s consolidated statements of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2018 and 2017 for financial instruments for which the fair value option was elected:

		Three Months Ended September 30,				Nine Months Ended September 30,
In millions		2018		2017		2018		2017
Investments carried at fair value⁽¹⁾		$	1	$	2	$	(4)	$	8
Fixed-maturity securities held at fair value-VIE⁽²⁾			(7)		(2)		(19)		(16)
Loans receivable at fair value:
	Residential mortgage loans⁽²⁾		(3)		(55)		(79)		(157)
	Corporate loans⁽²⁾		-		(2)		11		4
Loan repurchase commitments⁽²⁾			-		(1)		9		3
Other assets-VIE⁽²⁾			1		-		1		-
Medium-term notes⁽¹⁾			7		(4)		14		(26)
Variable interest entity notes ⁽²⁾			23		70		106		160
Other liabilities⁽³⁾			-		(1)		(2)		(1)
___________
(1) - Reported within "Net gains (losses) on financial instruments at fair value and foreign exchange" on MBIA's consolidated statements of operations.
(2) - Reported within "Net gains (losses) on financial instruments at fair value and foreign exchange-VIE" on MBIA's consolidated statements of operations.
(3) - Reported within "Other net realized gains (losses)" on MBIA's consolidated statements of operations.

Instrument-Specific Credit Risk of Liabilities Elected Under the Fair Value Option

As of September 30, 2018, the cumulative changes in instrument-specific credit risk of liabilities elected under the fair value option were a loss of $166 million reported in “Accumulated other comprehensive income” on the Company’s consolidated balance sheets. Changes in value attributable to instrument-specific credit risk were derived principally from changes in the Company’s credit spread. For liabilities of VIEs, additional adjustments to instrument-specific credit risk are required, which is determined by an analysis of deal specific performance of collateral that support these liabilities. During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2018, the portions of instrument-specific credit risk included in AOCI that were recognized in earnings due to settlement of liabilities were losses of $38 million and $48 million, respectively.

The following table reflects the difference between the aggregate fair value and the aggregate remaining contractual principal balance outstanding as of September 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017 for loans and notes for which the fair value option was elected:

		As of September 30, 2018							As of December 31, 2017
		Contractual						Contractual
		Outstanding		Fair				Outstanding		Fair
In millions		Principal		Value		Difference		Principal		Value		Difference
Loans receivable at fair value:
	Residential mortgage loans	$	390	$	389	$	1	$	732	$	727	$	5
	Residential mortgage loans (90 days or more past due)		165		39		126		170		32		138
	Corporate loans (90 days or more past due)		-		-		-		1,394		920		474
Total loans receivable at fair value		$	555	$	428	$	127	$	2,296	$	1,679	$	617

Variable interest entity notes		$	1,525	$	709	$	816	$	1,882	$	1,069	$	813

Medium-term notes		$	139	$	123	$	16	$	180	$	115	$	65

The difference between the contractual outstanding principal and the fair values on loans receivable, VIE notes and MTNs, in the preceding table, are primarily attributable to credit risk. This is due to the high rate of defaults on loans and the collateral supporting the VIE notes and the nonperformance risk of the Company on its MTNs, which resulted in depressed pricing of the financial instruments.

- Definition

The entire disclosure for the fair value of financial instruments (as defined), including financial assets and financial liabilities (collectively, as defined), and the measurements of those instruments as well as disclosures related to the fair value of non-financial assets and liabilities. Such disclosures about the financial instruments, assets, and liabilities would include: (1) the fair value of the required items together with their carrying amounts (as appropriate); (2) for items for which it is not practicable to estimate fair value, disclosure would include: (a) information pertinent to estimating fair value (including, carrying amount, effective interest rate, and maturity, and (b) the reasons why it is not practicable to estimate fair value; (3) significant concentrations of credit risk including: (a) information about the activity, region, or economic characteristics identifying a concentration, (b) the maximum amount of loss the entity is exposed to based on the gross fair value of the related item, (c) policy for requiring collateral or other security and information as to accessing such collateral or security, and (d) the nature and brief description of such collateral or security; (4) quantitative information about market risks and how such risks are managed; (5) for items measured on both a recurring and nonrecurring basis information regarding the inputs used to develop the fair value measurement; and (6) for items presented in the financial statement for which fair value measurement is elected: (a) information necessary to understand the reasons for the election, (b) discussion of the effect of fair value changes on earnings, (c) a description of [similar groups] items for which the election is made and the relation thereof to the balance sheet, the aggregate carrying value of items included in the balance sheet that are not eligible for the election; (7) all other required (as defined) and desired information.

+ References + Details