Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2017

Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

Summary

MBIA Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries, (collectively, “MBIA” or the “Company”) operates one of the largest financial guarantee insurance businesses in the industry. MBIA manages three operating segments: 1) United States (“U.S.”) public finance insurance; 2) corporate; and 3) international and structured finance insurance. The Company’s U.S. public finance insurance business is primarily operated through National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (“National”) and its international and structured finance insurance business is primarily operated through MBIA Insurance Corporation and its subsidiaries (“MBIA Corp.”). Effective on January 10, 2017, MBIA Corp.’s wholly-owned subsidiary, MBIA UK (Holdings) Limited (“MBIA UK Holdings”), sold its operating subsidiary, MBIA UK Insurance Limited (“MBIA UK”), to Assured Guaranty Corp. (“Assured”), a subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd. Refer below for a further discussion of the sale of MBIA UK. Unless otherwise indicated or the context otherwise requires, references to “MBIA Corp.” are (i) for any references relating to the period ended January 10, 2017, to MBIA Insurance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, MBIA UK, and MBIA Mexico S.A. de C.V. (“MBIA Mexico”) and (ii) for any references relating to the period after January 10, 2017, to MBIA Insurance Corporation together with MBIA Mexico.

Refer to “Note 11: Business Segments” for further information about the Company’s operating segments.

Business Developments

Financial Strength Ratings

On June 26, 2017, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) downgraded the financial strength rating of National from AA- with a stable outlook to A with a stable outlook. National’s ability to write new business and to compete with other financial guarantors is largely dependent on the financial strength ratings assigned to National by major rating agencies. At the current S&P rating it is difficult for National to compete with higher-rated competitors, therefore, at this time, National has ceased its efforts to actively pursue writing new financial guarantee business. National continues to surveil and remediate its existing insured portfolio and will proactively seek opportunities to enhance shareholder value using its strong financial resources, while protecting the interests of all of its policyholders.

On September 28, 2017, MBIA Inc., on behalf of its subsidiaries, National and MBIA Corp., provided notice to Moody’s Investors Services (“Moody’s”) terminating the agreement by which Moody’s agreed to provide financial strength ratings to MBIA Inc., National and MBIA Corp. Also on September 28, 2017, National provided notice to Kroll Bond Rating Agency (“Kroll”) terminating the agreement by which Kroll agreed to provide a financial strength rating to National. These termination notices were effective in October of 2017.

Full Valuation Allowance on the Company’s Net Deferred Tax Asset

During the nine months ended September 30, 2017, the Company established a full valuation allowance on its net deferred tax asset, which resulted in a charge to earnings of $1.2 billion. This charge was included in “Provision (benefit) for income taxes” on the Company’s consolidated statement of operations. Refer to “Note 10: Income Taxes” for further information about this valuation allowance on the Company’s net deferred tax asset.

Sale of MBIA UK

On January 10, 2017, MBIA UK Holdings sold its operating subsidiary, MBIA UK, and made a cash payment of $23 million, to Assured in exchange for the receipt by MBIA UK Holdings of certain notes owned by Assured that were issued by Zohar II 2005-1, Limited (“Zohar II”) with an aggregate outstanding principal amount of $347 million as of January 10, 2017 (the “Sale Transaction”). For the nine months ended September 30, 2017, the Company recorded a gain of $5 million to adjust the carrying value of MBIA UK to its fair value less costs to sell as of the sale date. This gain was reflected in the results of the Company’s international and structured finance insurance segment and included in “Other net realized gains (losses)” on the Company’s consolidated statement of operations.

Held for Sale Classification

The assets and liabilities of MBIA UK were classified as held for sale as of December 31, 2016 and presented within “Assets held for sale” and “Liabilities held for sale” on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet. Income before income taxes for MBIA UK was $9 and $32 million, respectively, for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2016. The following table summarizes the components of assets and liabilities held for sale as of December 31, 2016:

		As of
In millions		December 31, 2016
Assets
	Investments	$	466
	Cash and cash equivalents		73
	Premiums receivable		267
	Other assets		19
	Valuation allowance		(270)
	Total assets held for sale	$	555

Liabilities
	Unearned premium revenue	$	304
	Other liabilities		42
	Total liabilities held for sale	$	346

MBIA Corp. Financing Facility

On January 10, 2017, MBIA Corp. consummated a financing facility (the “Facility”) with affiliates of certain holders of 14% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Surplus Notes of MBIA Corp. (collectively, the “Senior Lenders”), and with MBIA Inc., pursuant to which the Senior Lenders have provided $325 million of senior financing and MBIA Inc. has provided $38 million of subordinated financing to MZ Funding LLC (“MZ Funding”), a newly formed wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, which in turn lent the proceeds of such financing to MBIA Corp. MBIA Corp. issued financial guarantee insurance policies insuring MZ Funding’s obligations under the Facility. Refer to “Note 9: Debt” for further information about the Facility.

Risks and Uncertainties

The Company’s financial statements include estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. The outcome of certain significant risks and uncertainties could cause the Company to revise its estimates and assumptions or could cause actual results to differ from the Company’s estimates. The discussion below highlights the significant risks and uncertainties that could have a material effect on the Company’s financial statements and business objectives in future periods.

U.S. Public Finance Market Conditions

National’s insured portfolio continued to perform satisfactorily against a backdrop of strengthening domestic economic activity. While a stable or growing economy will generally benefit tax revenues and fees charged for essential municipal services which secure National’s insured bond portfolio, some state and local governments and territory obligors National insures remain under financial and budgetary stress. This could lead to an increase in defaults by such entities on the payment of their obligations and losses or impairments on a greater number of the Company’s insured transactions. The Company monitors and analyzes these situations and other stressed credits closely, and the overall extent and duration of this stress is uncertain.

In particular, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and certain of its instrumentalities (“Puerto Rico”) are experiencing significant fiscal stress and constrained liquidity due to, among other things, Puerto Rico’s structural budget imbalance, limited access to the capital markets, a stagnating local economy, net migration of people out of Puerto Rico and a high debt burden. Although Puerto Rico has tried to address its challenges through various fiscal policies, it continues to experience significant fiscal stress. On January 1, 2017 and July 1, 2017, Puerto Rico also defaulted on a scheduled debt service for National insured bonds and National paid gross claims in the aggregate of $242 million as a result. On September 20, 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Category 4 hurricane resulting in catastrophic damage to much of the island’s basic infrastructure, including its electrical transmission and distribution grid, telecommunications network, housing, roads, bridges, water and sewer systems. On September 21, 2017, the President of the United States approved a Major Disaster Declaration for Puerto Rico and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (“FEMA”) made federal disaster assistance available to Puerto Rico to supplement its recovery efforts. Hurricane Maria’s impact on Puerto Rico will likely also impact its ability to both repay its legacy indebtedness and participate in ongoing debt restructuring negotiations. The physical damage and resultant lost economic activity may exceed the collective aid Puerto Rico receives from private insurance, relief from FEMA and other federal agencies and programs. Economic activity in Puerto Rico may not return to pre-hurricane levels and Puerto Rico’s recovery could be more shallow and protracted than that experienced by other similarly affected governments, given Puerto Rico’s prior constrained liquidity and economic activity. While the federal government has made aid available to Puerto Rico, there can be no assurance that such aid will continue in the amounts necessary to offset the adverse impacts from Hurricane Maria in their entirety. In addition, the necessary and greater involvement of the federal government, through its actions to deliver disaster relief and other support services, in addition to the evolving role of the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico (“Oversight Board”) and the role of Puerto Rico in its own recovery, heightens political risk in connection with the restructuring of legacy debt. This risk could lead the Oversight Board, Puerto Rico or the federal government to seek to extract greater concessions from creditors based on the uncertainty of Puerto Rico’s long term recovery prospects. In this event, losses at National on select Puerto Rico exposures could increase materially.

MBIA Corp. Insured Portfolio

MBIA Corp.’s primary objectives are to satisfy claims of its policyholders, and to maximize future recoveries, if any, for its Senior Lenders and surplus note holders and, thereafter, its preferred stock holders. MBIA Corp. is executing this strategy by pursuing various actions focused on maximizing the collection of recoveries and by reducing potential losses on its insurance exposures. MBIA Corp.’s insured portfolio could deteriorate and result in additional significant loss reserves and claim payments. MBIA Corp.’s ability to meet its obligations is limited by available liquidity and its ability to secure additional liquidity through financing and other transactions. There can be no assurance that MBIA Corp. will be successful in generating sufficient cash to meet its obligations.

On January 20, 2017, MBIA Corp. was presented with and fully satisfied a claim of $770 million (the “Zohar II Claim”) on an insurance policy it had written insuring the certain notes issued by Zohar II. MBIA Corp. was able to satisfy the Zohar II Claim as a result of having completed the Sale Transaction and by borrowing from the Facility, as described above, together with using approximately $60 million from its own resources. Refer to “Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 for additional information about these transactions.

RMBS Recoveries

The amount and timing of projected collections from excess spread from residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”) and the put-back recoverable from Credit Suisse are uncertain.

Zohar Recoveries

Payment of a claim in November of 2015 on MBIA Corp.’s policy insuring the class A-1 and A-2 notes issued by Zohar CDO 2003-1, Limited (“Zohar I”) and satisfying the Zohar II Claim entitles MBIA Corp. to reimbursement of such amounts plus interest and expenses and/or to exercise certain rights and remedies to seek recovery of such amounts. There can be no assurance, however, that the value of the Zohar assets will be sufficient to permit MBIA Corp. to recover all or substantially all of the payments it made on Zohar I and Zohar II.

Refer to “Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves” for information about MBIA Corp.’s recoveries.

Corporate Liquidity

Subsequent to September 30, 2017, National declared and paid a dividend of $118 million to its ultimate parent, MBIA Inc. Also, subsequent to September 30, 2017, National purchased from MBIA Inc., certain MBIA Inc. 5.700% Senior Notes due 2034 that were previously repurchased by MBIA Inc. and had not been retired, resulting in an increase to MBIA Inc.’s liquidity of $130 million. Based on the Company’s projections of National’s dividends, additional anticipated releases under its tax sharing agreement and related tax escrow account (“Tax Escrow Account”), and other cash inflows, the Company expects that MBIA Inc. will have sufficient cash to satisfy its debt service and general corporate needs. However, MBIA Inc. continues to have liquidity risk which could be triggered by deterioration in the performance of invested assets, interruption of or reduction in dividends or tax payments received from operating subsidiaries, impaired access to the capital markets, as well as other factors which cannot be anticipated at this time. Furthermore, failure by MBIA Inc. to settle liabilities that are also insured by MBIA Corp. could result in claims on MBIA Corp.