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Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties
3 Months Ended
Mar. 31, 2016
Text Block [Abstract]  
Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

Note 1: Business Developments and Risks and Uncertainties

Summary

MBIA Inc., together with its consolidated subsidiaries, (collectively, “MBIA” or the “Company”) operates one of the largest financial guarantee insurance businesses in the industry. MBIA manages three operating segments: 1) United States (“U.S.”) public finance insurance; 2) corporate; and 3) international and structured finance insurance. The Company’s U.S. public finance insurance business is primarily operated through National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (“National”) and its international and structured finance insurance business is primarily operated through MBIA Insurance Corporation and its subsidiaries (“MBIA Corp.”). Unless otherwise indicated or the context otherwise requires, references to “MBIA Corp.” are to MBIA Insurance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, MBIA UK Insurance Limited (“MBIA UK”) and MBIA Mexico S.A. de C.V (“MBIA Mexico”).

Effective on January 1, 2015, the Company exited its advisory services business through the sale of Cutwater Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries (“Cutwater”) to a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Refer to “Note 10: Business Segments” for further information about the Company’s operating segments.

Business Developments

National Ratings and New Business Opportunities

National’s ability to write new business and compete with other financial guarantors is largely dependent on the financial strength ratings assigned to National by the rating agencies. As of March 31, 2016, National had the following ratings: AA+ with a stable outlook by Kroll Bond Rating Agency; AA- with a stable outlook by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”); and A3 with a negative outlook by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. (“Moody’s”).

National seeks to generate shareholder value through appropriate risk adjusted pricing; however, current market conditions and the competitive landscape may limit National’s new business opportunities and its abilities to price and underwrite risk with attractive returns. Refer to “Risks and Uncertainties” below for a discussion of business risks related to National’s insured portfolio.

Risks and Uncertainties

The Company’s financial statements include estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. The outcome of certain significant risks and uncertainties could cause the Company to revise its estimates and assumptions or could cause actual results to differ from the Company’s estimates. The discussion below highlights the significant risks and uncertainties that could have a material effect on the Company’s financial statements and business objectives in future periods.

U.S. Public Finance Market Conditions

National’s insured portfolio continued to perform satisfactorily against a backdrop of strengthening domestic economic activity. While a stable or growing economy will generally benefit tax revenues and fees charged for essential municipal services which secure National’s insured bond portfolio, some state and local governments and territory obligors National insures remain under financial and budgetary stress. This could lead to an increase in defaults by such entities on the payment of their obligations and losses or impairments on a greater number of the Company’s insured transactions. The Company monitors and analyzes these situations and other stressed credits closely, and the overall extent and duration of this stress is uncertain.

Puerto Rico is experiencing fiscal stress and constrained liquidity due to, among other things, Puerto Rico’s structural budget imbalance, limited access to the capital markets, a stagnating local economy, net migration of people out of Puerto Rico and a high debt burden. Although Puerto Rico has tried to address its significant financial challenges through various fiscal policies, it continues to experience significant fiscal stress. The Company continues to believe, based on its analysis of Puerto Rico’s fiscal and structural circumstances, the details of its insured exposures, and its legal and contractual rights, that all of National’s insured Puerto Rico related debt will ultimately be substantially repaid. 

MBIA Corp. Recoveries and Insured Portfolio

MBIA Corp.’s primary objectives are to satisfy those claims, if any, of its policyholders, and to maximize future recoveries to its surplus note holders and preferred stock holders. The Company intends to execute this strategy by reducing and mitigating potential losses on its insurance exposures and maximizing the collection of recoveries.

The amount and timing of projected collections from excess spread from second-lien residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”) and the put-back recoverable from Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, DLJ Mortgage Capital, Inc., and Select Portfolio Servicing Inc. (collectively, “Credit Suisse”) are uncertain. Refer to “Note 5: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves” for information about MBIA Corp.’s loss reserves and recoveries.

Further, the remaining insured portfolio, aside from these exposures, could deteriorate and result in additional significant loss reserves and claim payments. MBIA Corp.’s ability to meet its obligations is limited by available liquidity and its ability to secure liquidity through financing and other transactions. In this circumstance there can be no assurance that MBIA Corp. will be successful in generating sufficient cash to meet its obligations. In particular, as of March 31, 2016, MBIA Corp. insures $776 million of gross par outstanding of notes issued by Zohar II 2005-1 Limited, a high yield corporate collateralized debt obligation (“CDO”), which matures in January of 2017. If cash flows generated by Zohar II are insufficient to pay the insured amount at maturity in full, MBIA Corp. will be called upon to satisfy any unpaid amount. If Zohar II fails to generate cash to cover a substantial amount of the insured exposure at maturity, or if MBIA Corp. is unable to reach a restructuring agreement or to raise sufficient liquidity, MBIA Corp. may ultimately have insufficient liquid resources to continue to pay claims. Any such failure to meet its obligations could cause the New York State Department of Financial Services (“NYSDFS”) to put MBIA Insurance Corporation, exclusive of MBIA UK and MBIA Mexico, into a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding and/or to order MBIA Insurance Corporation to cease paying any claims under its policies. Given the separation of MBIA Inc. and MBIA Corp. as distinct legal entities, the absence of any material intercompany lending agreements or cross defaults between the entities, and the lack of reliance by MBIA Inc. on MBIA Corp. for the receipt of dividends, the Company does not believe that a rehabilitation or liquidation proceeding with respect to MBIA Insurance Corporation would have any significant long-term liquidity impact on MBIA Inc. or result in a liquidation or similar proceeding of MBIA UK or MBIA Mexico. Such a proceeding could have material adverse consequences for MBIA Insurance Corporation, including the termination of insured credit default swap (“CDS”) contracts for which counterparties may assert market-based claims, the acceleration of debt obligations issued by affiliates and insured by MBIA Insurance Corporation, the loss of control of MBIA Insurance Corporation to a rehabilitator or liquidator, and unplanned costs.

Corporate Liquidity

As of March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, the liquidity position of MBIA Inc. was $371 million and $416 million, respectively. The term “liquidity position” refers to cash and liquid assets available for general liquidity purposes. During the three months ended March 31, 2016, $105 million was released to MBIA Inc. under the MBIA group’s tax sharing agreement (the “Tax Escrow Account”). Based on the Company’s projections of National’s dividends, payments into the Tax Escrow Account, and other cash inflows, the Company expects that MBIA Inc. will have sufficient cash to satisfy its debt service and general corporate needs. However, MBIA Inc. continues to have liquidity risk which could be triggered by deterioration in the performance of invested assets, interruption of or reduction in dividends or tax payments received from operating subsidiaries, impaired access to the capital markets, as well as other factors which cannot be anticipated at this time. Furthermore, failure by MBIA Inc. to settle liabilities that are also insured by MBIA Corp. could result in claims on MBIA Corp.