Investments

12 Months Ended

Dec. 31, 2012

Investments

Note 8: Investments

Investments, excluding those elected under the fair value option, include debt and equity securities classified as either AFS or HTM. Other invested assets designated as AFS are primarily comprised of money market funds.

The following tables present the amortized cost, fair value, corresponding gross unrealized gains and losses and other-than-temporary impairments (“OTTI”) for AFS and HTM investments in the Company’s consolidated investment portfolio as of December 31, 2012 and 2011:

	December 31, 2012
In millions	Amortized Cost		Gross Unrealized Gains		Gross Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Other-Than- Temporary Impairments(1)
AFS Investments
Fixed-maturity investments:
U.S. Treasury and government agency	$	819	$	40	$	(1)	$	858	$	—
State and municipal bonds		1,446		97		(12)		1,531		—
Foreign governments		183		13		—		196		—
Corporate obligations		1,058		54		(20)		1,092		5
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed agency		939		19		(1)		957		—
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		86		11		(8)		89		—
Commercial mortgage-backed		46		—		(4)		42		—
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		161		1		(71)		91		(25)
Other asset-backed		145		3		(11)		137		—
Total fixed-maturity investments		4,883		238		(128)		4,993		(20)
Money market securities		580		—		—		580		—
Equity securities		22		1		—		23		—
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
State and municipal bonds		38		3		—		41		—
Corporate obligations		177		9		(6)		180		—
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		92		—		(10)		82		—
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		97		—		(8)		89		—
Other asset-backed		23		—		—		23		—
Money market securities		210		—		—		210		—
Total AFS investments	$	6,122	$	251	$	(152)	$	6,221	$	(20)
HTM Investments
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations	$	2,829	$	2	$	(157)	$	2,674	$	—
Total HTM investments	$	2,829	$	2	$	(157)	$	2,674	$	—

(1)—Represents unrealized gains or losses on other than temporarily impaired securities recognized in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), which includes the non-credit component of impairments, as well as all subsequent changes in fair value of such impaired securities reported in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss).

	December 31, 2011
In millions	Amortized Cost		Gross Unrealized Gains		Gross Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Other-Than- Temporary Impairments(1)
AFS Investments
Fixed-maturity investments:
U.S. Treasury and government agency	$	1,091	$	39	$	—	$	1,130	$	—
State and municipal bonds		2,025		76		(19)		2,082		—
Foreign governments		350		24		—		374		—
Corporate obligations		1,674		42		(106)		1,610		(2)
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed agency		1,198		47		—		1,245		—
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		325		31		(83)		273		(57)
Commercial mortgage-backed		58		1		(10)		49		—
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		251		—		(118)		133		(43)
Other asset-backed		520		2		(82)		440		(37)
Total fixed-maturity investments		7,492		262		(418)		7,336		(139)
Money market securities		926		—		—		926		—
Equity securities		134		1		(19)		116		—
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations		2		—		—		2		—
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		119		—		(26)		93		—
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		112		—		(15)		97		—
Other asset-backed		41		—		—		41		—
Money market securities		199		—		—		199		—
Total AFS investments	$	9,025	$	263	$	(478)	$	8,810	$	(139)
HTM Investments
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations	$	2,840	$	—	$	(371)	$	2,469	$	—
Asset-backed securities:
Other asset-backed		1,003		17		—		1,020		—
Total HTM investments	$	3,843	$	17	$	(371)	$	3,489	$	—

(1)—Represents unrealized gains or losses on other than temporarily impaired securities recognized in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), which includes the non-credit component of impairments, as well as all subsequent changes in fair value of such impaired securities reported in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss).

The following table presents the distribution by contractual maturity of AFS and HTM fixed-maturity securities at amortized cost and fair value as of December 31, 2012. Contractual maturity may differ from expected maturity as borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations.

	AFS Securities								HTM Securities
					Consolidated VIEs				Consolidated VIEs
In millions	Amortized Cost		Fair Value		Amortized Cost		Fair Value		Amortized Cost		Fair Value
Due in one year or less	$	241	$	242	$	18	$	18	$	—	$	—
Due after one year through five years		1,044		1,061		113		122		—		—
Due after five years through ten years		770		803		—		—		—		—
Due after ten years through fifteen years		403		434		84		81		—		—
Due after fifteen years		1,048		1,137		—		—		2,829		2,674
Mortgage-backed and asset-backed		1,377		1,316		212		194		—		—
Total fixed-maturity investments	$	4,883	$	4,993	$	427	$	415	$	2,829	$	2,674

Net unrealized gains (losses), including the portion of OTTI included in accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”), reported within shareholders’ equity consisted of:

	As of December 31,
In millions	2012		2011
Gross unrealized gains	$	251	$	263
Gross unrealized losses		(152)		(478)
Foreign exchange		24		(5)
Total		123		(220)
Deferred income tax provision (benefit)		31		(86)
Unrealized gains (losses), net	$	92	$	(134)

Deposited and Pledged Securities

The fair value of securities on deposit with various regulatory authorities was $10 million and $11 million as of December 31, 2012 and 2011, respectively. These deposits are required to comply with state insurance laws.

The Company enters into securities borrowing and lending contracts in connection with MBIA’s collateralized investment agreement activities. Such contracts are only transacted with high-quality dealer firms. It is the Company’s policy to take possession of securities borrowed under these contracts. The Company minimizes credit risk from counterparties that might be unable to fulfill their contractual obligations by monitoring customer credit exposure and collateral values and requiring additional collateral to be deposited with the Company when deemed necessary.

Substantially all of the obligations under investment agreements require the Company to pledge securities as collateral. Securities pledged in connection with investment agreement activities may not be repledged by the investment agreement counterparty. As of December 31, 2012 and 2011, the fair value of securities pledged as collateral for these investment agreements approximated $820 million and $1.9 billion, respectively. The Company’s collateral as of December 31, 2012 consisted principally of RMBS, U.S. Treasury and government agency bonds and state and municipal bonds, and was primarily held with major U.S. banks. Additionally, the Company pledged cash and money market securities as collateral under investment agreements in the amount of $144 million and $224 million as of December 31, 2012 and 2011, respectively.

Impaired Investments

The following tables present the gross unrealized losses related to AFS and HTM investments as of December 31, 2012 and 2011.

	December 31, 2012
	Less than 12 Months				12 Months or Longer				Total
In millions	Fair Value		Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Unrealized Losses
AFS Investments
Fixed-maturity investments:
U.S. Treasury and government agency	$	234	$	(1)	$	—	$	—	$	234	$	(1)
State and municipal bonds		69		—		87		(12)		156		(12)
Foreign governments		11		—		1		—		12		—
Corporate obligations		202		(2)		57		(18)		259		(20)
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed agency		173		(1)		38		—		211		(1)
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		4		—		28		(8)		32		(8)
Commercial mortgage-backed		3		—		27		(4)		30		(4)
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		1		—		80		(71)		81		(71)
Other asset-backed		4		—		65		(11)		69		(11)
Total fixed-maturity investments		701		(4)		383		(124)		1,084		(128)
Equity securities		1		—		1		—		2		—
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations		—		—		31		(6)		31		(6)
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		—		—		82		(10)		82		(10)
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		—		—		85		(8)		85		(8)
Total AFS investments	$	702	$	(4)	$	582	$	(148)	$	1,284	$	(152)
HTM Investments
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations	$	297	$	(19)	$	1,287	$	(138)	$	1,584	$	(157)
Total HTM investments	$	297	$	(19)	$	1,287	$	(138)	$	1,584	$	(157)

	December 31, 2011
	Less than 12 Months				12 Months or Longer				Total
In millions	Fair Value		Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Unrealized Losses
AFS Investments
Fixed-maturity investments:
U.S. Treasury and government agency	$	200	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	200	$	—
State and municipal bonds		166		(2)		151		(17)		317		(19)
Foreign governments		20		—		—		—		20		—
Corporate obligations		297		(15)		418		(91)		715		(106)
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed agency		20		—		49		—		69		—
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		34		(5)		167		(78)		201		(83)
Commercial mortgage-backed		17		(2)		22		(8)		39		(10)
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		13		(2)		117		(116)		130		(118)
Other asset-backed		53		(7)		328		(75)		381		(82)
Total fixed-maturity investments		820		(33)		1,252		(385)		2,072		(418)
Equity securities		47		(3)		45		(16)		92		(19)
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations		2		—		—		—		2		—
Mortgage-backed securities:
Residential mortgage-backed non-agency		3		—		90		(26)		93		(26)
Asset-backed securities:
Collateralized debt obligations		9		—		88		(15)		97		(15)
Other asset-backed		31		—		—		—		31		—
Total AFS investments	$	912	$	(36)	$	1,475	$	(442)	$	2,387	$	(478)
HTM Investments
Assets of consolidated VIEs:
Corporate obligations	$	284	$	(31)	$	2,185	$	(340)	$	2,469	$	(371)
Total HTM investments	$	284	$	(31)	$	2,185	$	(340)	$	2,469	$	(371)

Gross unrealized losses on AFS decreased as of December 31, 2012 compared with 2011 primarily due to the sale of impaired securities included in the Company’s asset/liability products segment and the sale of other securities that were impaired in 2012. Gross unrealized losses on HTM securities decreased as of December 31, 2012 compared with 2011 primarily due to market price appreciation.

With the weighting applied on the fair value of each security relative to the total fair value, the weighted average contractual maturity of securities in an unrealized loss position as of December 31, 2012 and 2011 was 23 and 21 years, respectively. As of December 31, 2012 and 2011, there were 153 and 290 securities, respectively, that were in an unrealized loss position for a continuous twelve-month period or longer, of which the fair value of 89 and 218 securities, respectively, was below book value by more than 5%.

The following table presents the distribution of securities by percentage of fair value below book value by more than 5%:

Percentage Book Value Exceeded Market Value	Number of Securities		Book Value (in millions)		Fair Value (in millions)
> 5% to 15%		31	$	309	$	278
> 15% to 25%		18		682		549
> 25% to 50%		13		69		45
> 50%		27		87		18
Total		89	$	1,147	$	890

The following table presents the fair values and gross unrealized losses by credit rating category of ABS, MBS and corporate obligations included in the Company’s consolidated AFS investment portfolio as of December 31, 2012 for which fair value was less than amortized cost. The credit ratings are based on ratings from Moody’s as of December 31, 2012 or an alternate ratings source, such as S&P, when a security is not rated by Moody’s. For investments that are insured by various third-party guarantee insurers, the credit rating reflects the higher of the insurer’s rating or the underlying bond’s rating.

In millions	Aaa				Aa				A				Baa				Below Investment Grade				Not Rated				Total
Asset Type	Fair Value		Unrealized Loss		Fair Value		Unrealized Loss		Fair Value		Unrealized Loss		Fair Value		Unrealized Loss		Fair Value		Unrealized Loss		Fair Value		Unrealized Loss		Fair Value		Unrealized Loss
ABS	$	32	$	(3)	$	64	$	(5)	$	3	$	—	$	1	$	—	$	134	$	(81)	$	1	$	(1)	$	235	$	(90)
MBS		214		(1)		84		(10)		1		—		27		(3)		15		(3)		14		(6)		355		(23)
Corporate obligations		31		—		40		(1)		158		(9)		46		(14)		15		(2)		—		—		290		(26)
Total	$	277	$	(4)	$	188	$	(16)	$	162	$	(9)	$	74	$	(17)	$	164	$	(86)	$	15	$	(7)	$	880	$	(139)

The total ABS, MBS and corporate obligations reported in the preceding table include those which are guaranteed by financial guarantors. In addition, the following table presents information on ABS, MBS and corporate obligations guaranteed by the Company and third-party financial guarantors.

			Insured Securities Rated Below Investment Grade without the Effect of Guarantee
Asset Type	Average Credit Rating with the Effect of Guarantee	Average Credit Rating without the Effect of Guarantee	(in millions)		Percentage
			Fair Value
ABS	Below investment grade	Below investment grade	$	101		65%
MBS	A	Below investment grade		113		96%
Corporate obligations	Baa	Baa		—		—%

Refer to the table within the “Determination of Credit Loss Guaranteed by the Company and Other Third-Party Guarantors” section for information on the insured securities included in the preceding table.

The Company concluded that it does not have the intent to sell securities in an unrealized loss position and it is more likely than not, that it would not have to sell these securities before recovery of their cost basis. In making this conclusion, the Company examined the cash flow projections for its investment portfolios, the potential sources and uses of cash in its businesses, and the cash resources available to its business other than sales of securities. It also considered the existence of any risk management or other plans as of December 31, 2012 that would require the sale of impaired securities. Impaired securities that the Company intends to sell before the expected recovery of such securities’ fair values have been written down to fair value.

Other-Than-Temporary Impairments

Evaluating AFS Securities for OTTI

The Company has an ongoing review process for all securities in its investment portfolio, including a quarterly assessment of OTTI. This evaluation includes both qualitative and quantitative considerations. In assessing whether a decline in value is related to a credit loss, the Company considers several factors, including but not limited to (i) the magnitude and duration of declines in fair value; (ii) the reasons for the declines in fair value, such as general credit spread movements in each asset-backed sector, transaction-specific changes in credit spreads, credit rating downgrades, modeled defaults, and principal and interest payment priorities within each investment structure; and (iii) any guarantees associated with a security such as those provided by financial guarantee insurance companies, including MBIA Corp. and National.

In calculating credit-related losses, the Company utilizes cash flow modeling based on the type of security. The Company’s cash flow analysis considers all sources of cash, including credit enhancement, that support the payment of amounts owed by an issuer of a security. This includes the consideration of cash expected to be provided by financial guarantors, including MBIA Corp., resulting from an actual or potential insurance policy claim. In general, any change in the amount and/or timing of cash flows received or expected to be received, whether or not such cash flows are contractually defined, is reflected in the Company’s cash flow analysis for purposes of assessing an OTTI loss on an impaired security.

Each quarter, an internal committee, comprising staff that is independent of the Company’s evaluation process for determining OTTI of securities, reviews and approves the valuation of investments. Among other responsibilities, this committee ensures that the Company’s process for identifying and calculating OTTI, including the use of models and assumptions, is reasonable and complies with the Company’s internal policy.

Determination of Credit Loss on ABS, MBS and Corporate Obligations

Investments with unrealized losses that met the above criteria were tested for OTTI and principally related to ABS, MBS and corporate obligations.

ABS investments are evaluated for OTTI using historical collateral performance, deal waterfall and structural protections, credit ratings, and forward looking projections of collateral performance based on business and economic conditions specific to each collateral type and risk. The underlying collateral is evaluated to identify any specific performance concerns, and stress scenarios are considered in forecasting ultimate returns of principal. Based on this evaluation, if a principal default is projected for a security, estimated future cash flows are discounted at the security’s interest rate used to recognize interest income on the security. For CDO investments, the Company utilizes the same tools as for RMBS investments discussed below, aggregating the bond level cash flows to the CDO investment level. If the present value of cash flows is less than the Company’s amortized cost for the security, the difference is recorded as an OTTI loss.

RMBS investments are evaluated for OTTI using several quantitative tools. Loan level data is obtained and analyzed in a model that produces prepayment, default, and severity vectors. The model utilizes macro inputs, including housing price assumptions and interest rates. The vector outputs are used as inputs to a third-party cash flow model, which considers deal waterfall dynamics and structural features, to generate cash flows for an RMBS investment. The expected cash flows of the security are then discounted at the interest rate used to recognize interest income of the security to arrive at a present value amount. If the present value of the cash flows is less than the Company’s amortized cost for the investment, the difference is recorded as an OTTI loss.

Corporate obligation investments are evaluated for OTTI using credit analysis techniques. The Company’s analysis includes a detailed review of a number of quantitative and qualitative factors impacting the value of an individual security. These factors include the interest rate of the security (fixed or floating), the security’s current market spread, any collateral supporting the security, the security’s position in the issuer’s capital structure, and credit rating upgrades or downgrades. Additionally, these factors include an assessment of various issuer-related credit metrics including market capitalization, earnings, cash flow, capitalization, interest coverage, leverage, liquidity, management and a third-party quantitative default probability model. The Company’s analysis is augmented by comparing market prices for similar securities of other issuers in the same sector, as well as any recent corporate or government actions that may impact the ultimate return of principal. If the Company determines that, after considering these factors, a principal default is projected, a recovery analysis is performed using the above data. If the Company’s estimated recovery value for the security is less than its amortized cost, the difference is recorded as an OTTI loss.

For the years ended December 31, 2012, 2011 and 2010, the credit losses recognized in earnings were related to RMBS and CDOs. The following table presents a summary of the significant inputs considered in determining the measurement of the credit losses on securities in which a portion of the impairment is included in AOCI:

	Years Ended December 31,
Significant Inputs	2012		2011		2010
Expected size of losses(1):
Range(2)		12.13% to 97.70%		2.48% to 100.00%		0.21% to 100.00%
Weighted average(3)		87.67%		55.40%		52.20%
Current subordination levels(4):
Range(2)		0.00% to 0.00%		0.00% to 35.46%		0.00% to 42.16%
Weighted average(3)		0.00%		1.53%		4.50%
Prepayment speed (annual CPR)(5):
Range(2)		0.00% to 30.91%		0.00% to 100.00%		0.00% to 40.20%
Weighted average(3)		11.93%		12.67%		9.45%

(1)—Represents future expected credit losses on impaired assets expressed as a percentage of total outstanding balance.

(2)—Represents the range of inputs/assumptions based upon the individual securities within each category.

(3)—Calculated by weighting the relevant input/assumption for each individual security by the outstanding notional of the security.

(4)—Represents current level of credit protection (subordination) for the securities, expressed as a percentage of the balance of the collateral group backing the bond.

(5)—Values represent high and low points of lifetime vectors of constant prepayment rates.

Determination of Credit Loss Guaranteed by the Company and Other Third-Party Guarantors

The Company does not record OTTI related to credit concerns about issuers of securities insured by MBIA Corp. and National since investors in these securities, including MBIA, are guaranteed payment of principal and interest when due by MBIA. Securities insured by the Company, whether or not owned by the Company, are evaluated for impairment as part of its insurance surveillance process and, therefore, losses on securities insured by the Company are recorded in accordance with its loss reserving policy. Refer to “Note 2: Significant Accounting Policies” for information about the Company’s loss reserving policy and “Note 6: Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves” for information about loss reserves.

In considering cash expected to be provided from other third-party financial guarantors, the Company assesses the financial guarantor’s ability to make claim payments under a variety of scenarios that test the guarantor’s ultimate claims paying ability. The weighted average outcome of these scenarios, combined with the cash flows provided by the insured security, are used to determine the recoverability of the Company’s amortized cost.

The following table provides information about securities held by the Company as of December 31, 2012 that were in an unrealized loss position and insured by a financial guarantor, along with the amount of insurance loss reserves corresponding to the par amount owned by the Company:

In millions	Fair Value		Unrealized Loss		Insurance Loss Reserve (2)
Asset-backed:
MBIA(1)	$	148	$	(58)	$	16
Other		9		(5)		—
Total asset-backed		157		(63)		16
Mortgage-backed:
MBIA(1)		6		—		—
Other		111		(15)		—
Total mortgage-backed		117		(15)		—
Corporate obligations:
Other		10		(11)		—
Total corporate obligations		10		(11)		—
Other:
MBIA(1)		71		(12)		—
Other		8		—		—
Total other		79		(12)		—
Total	$	363	$	(101)	$	16

(1)—Includes investments insured by MBIA Corp. and National.

(2)—Insurance loss reserve estimates are based on the proportion of par value owned to the total amount of par value insured.

Credit Loss Rollforward

The portion of certain OTTI losses on fixed-maturity securities that does not represent credit losses is recognized in AOCI. For these impairments, the net amount recognized in earnings represents the difference between the amortized cost of the security and the net present value of its projected future discounted cash flows prior to impairment. Any remaining difference between the fair value and amortized cost is recognized in AOCI. The following table presents the amount of credit loss impairments recognized in earnings on fixed-maturity securities held by MBIA as of the dates indicated, for which a portion of the OTTI losses was recognized in AOCI, and the corresponding changes in such amounts.

In millions	Years Ended December 31,
Credit Losses Recognized in Earnings Related to OTTI	2012		2011		2010
Beginning balance	$	341	$	262	$	389
Accounting transition adjustment(1)		—		—		(149)
Additions for credit loss impairments recognized in the current period on securities not previously impaired		—		63		24
Additions for credit loss impairments recognized in the current period on securities previously impaired		8		31		18
Additions for credit loss impairments recognized in prior periods for securities that were re-impaired with a non-credit component in the current period		—		—		1
Reductions for credit loss impairments previously recognized on securities sold during the period		(41)		(15)		(16)
Reductions for credit loss impairments previously recognized on securities impaired to fair value during the period(2)		(111)		—		(4)
Reductions for increases in cash flows expected to be collected over the remaining life of the security		—		—		(1)
Ending balance	$	197	$	341	$	262

(1)—Reflects the adoption of the accounting principles for the consolidation of VIEs.

(2)—Represents circumstances where the Company determined in the current period that it intends to sell the security or it is more likely than not that it will be required to sell the security before recovery of the security’s amortized cost.

Realized Gains and Losses

Realized gains and losses in the years ended December 31, 2012, 2011 and 2010 were primarily related to sales of AFS securities. The amount of gross realized gains and losses of AFS securities (primarily fixed-maturity securities) were as follows:

	Years Ended December 31,
In millions	2012		2011		2010
Gross realized gains	$	196	$	239	$	92
Gross realized losses		(127)		(104)		(30)
Net(1)	$	69	$	135	$	62

(1)—These balances are included in the “Net gains (losses) on financial instruments at fair value and foreign exchange” line item on the Company’s consolidated statements of operations.