EX-99.(C)(3) 3 a2166231zex-99_c3.htm EXHIBIT (C)(3)

Exhibit (c)(3)

 

 

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CONFIDENTIAL

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

A Presentation to:

 

The Board of Directors of

 

TWINS

 

Regarding:

 

Update on Strategic Alternatives

 

July 20, 2005

 

300 Crescent Court, Suite 600

 

Dallas, TX 75201

[LOGO]

214-258-2700

 

www.stephens.com

 

 

Little Rock

 

Atlanta

 

Dallas

 

Nashville

 

New York

 



Table of Contents

 

 

I.

Process Update

 

 

 

 

II.

TWINS Current Performance

 

 

 

 

III.

New Management Case

 

 

 

 

IV.

Migration to Non-Asset Based Model and Recap

 

 

 

 

V.

Next Steps

 

 

 

 

Exhibits

 

 

 

 

A.

Comparable Companies Analysis

 

[LOGO]

 

2



[GRAPHIC]

 

I. Process Update

 



Process Update

 

                  At the BOD’s request Stephens has begun initial testing of potential buyers.

                  “No name” discussion to determine initial interest.

                  NDA sent.

                  Management approved information packet sent.

                  Status of the calling effort to date:

                  Strategic Buyers:

                  12 contacted.

                  5 show interest.

                  Financial Buyers:

                  8 contacted.

                  2 passed.

                  At the conclusion of today’s meeting we hope to clarify the BOD’s intentions such that we ensure a smooth efficient process that maximizes the Company’s alternatives and value.

 

4



Current Status of Potential Buyers

 

Strategic Buyers

 

 

 

Comments

Interested:

 

 

Celadon Group

 

Still discussing information to be provided/NDA.

Crete Carrier Corp.

 

Interested. NDA sent.

Heartland Express

 

Received signed NDA. Information package sent.

Knight Transportation

 

Interested. NDA sent.

Swift Transportation

 

Received signed NDA. Information package sent.

 

 

 

Passed:

 

 

Contrans Income Fund

 

Focused on Canadian market.

CRST

 

Not interested in this size of acquisition at the moment.

J.B. Hunt

 

Still not in acquisition mode.

Schneider

 

Looking for non-asset based growth and not dry van.

TransForce Income Fund

 

Not interested in U.S. based carrier.

USA Truck

 

Not interested in acquisitions of size right now.

Werner Enterprises

 

Prefer to grow internally.

 

Financial Buyers

 

 

 

Comments

Interested:

 

 

The Broe Companies

 

Interested. NDA sent.

Fenway Partners

 

Interested. NDA sent.

Goldner Hawn

 

Interested. NDA sent.

Jefferies Capital

 

Interested. NDA sent.

Thayer Capital

 

Interested. NDA sent.

 

 

 

Initial Call Only:

 

 

Platinum Equity

 

 

 

 

 

Passed:

 

 

Eos Partners

 

Currently focused on non-asset based companies.

Greenbrier Equity

 

Not interested in asset-based dry van TL.

 

5



[GRAPHIC]

 

II. TWINS Current Performance

 



Company Performance

(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)

 

 

 

2Q04

 

2Q05

 

2Q05

 

For the Six Months Ended

 

 

 

Actual

 

Actual

 

Budget

 

6/30/04

 

6/30/05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

$

65.2

 

$

62.8

 

$

64.2

 

$

127.4

 

$

124.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA

 

8.3

 

7.3

 

6.3

 

15.0

 

13.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBIT

 

2.3

 

1.5

 

0.8

 

3.3

 

2.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

 

0.9

 

0.5

 

0.1

 

1.0

 

0.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS

 

$

0.13

 

$

0.07

 

$

0.02

 

$

0.14

 

$

0.09

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Margins:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA

 

12.7

%

11.6

%

9.8

%

11.8

%

11.1

%

EBIT

 

3.5

%

2.5

%

1.3

%

2.6

%

1.9

%

Operating Ratio

 

96.5

%

97.5

%

98.7

%

97.4

%

98.1

%

Net Income

 

1.4

%

0.8

%

0.2

%

0.8

%

0.5

%

 

7



Potential Market Reaction to 2Q Results

 

Initial market reaction could be neutral to slightly positive upon announcement, but may turn negative as outsiders continue to analyze TWINS operating metrics.

 

                  Outperform Management Estimates, but Underperform 2004 and Feltl

                  Market will be unaware of actual performance relative to management’s plan.

                  Market will compare performance sequentially and based on prior year results.

                  Those following Feltl will be disappointed as 2Q estimate is $0.13.

                  Quality of Earnings

                  Better than expected earnings driven primarily due to:

                  Reduction of incentive plan bonus accruals — $0.02.

                  Workers compensation (lower current claims, positive developments in old claims) — $0.025.

                  Better medical claim experience — $0.015.

                  Sustainability may be questioned.

                  Key Operating Metrics Still Lagging

                  Drivers

                  Average monthly seated Company drivers have decreased sequentially month over month since February.

                  New student enrollments have picked up in July however.

                  Utilization decreased month over month in 2Q

                  Revenue/total seated/week decreased from $3,519 in April to $3,497 in June.

                  Deadhead increased from 10.9% in April to 11.1% in June versus an expected decline to 10.4%.

                  Consider delaying announcement of Stephens role in advising the BOD on strategic alternatives.

 

8



[GRAPHIC]

 

III. New Management Case

 



Overview of New Management Case

 

                  Key changes to the New Management Case include:

                  Seated Company Tractors — delayed driver ramp, but catches up to previous plan by end of 2006.

                  Deadhead — improvements from elimination of freight in non-targeted lanes.

                  Non-Asset Revenue:

                  In 2005, shift trailers to take advantage of favorable intermodal prices — 37% incremental margins.

                  Grow 2006-2008 annually at 20% versus 10-15% previously.

                  Cost Reductions:

                  Planned reduction in G&A headcount.

                  Slightly lower driver pay due to increased mix of student drivers.

                  No tractor sales — will need by year end.

                  No service centers closures.

                  Execution risks we have identified include:

                  Ability to ramp Company drivers given driver environment.

                  Ability to grow non-asset based services at such high rates.

 

10



Projected Income Statement - New Management Case

(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)

 

 

 

For the Projected Fiscal Year Ending December 31,

 

CAGR

 

 

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

2007E

 

2008E

 

‘05 - ‘08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asset Based

 

$

244.5

 

$

292.8

 

$

324.5

 

$

344.1

 

12.1

%

Non-Asset Based

 

16.0

 

19.2

 

23.0

 

27.6

 

20.0

%

Total Revenues

 

260.5

 

311.9

 

347.4

 

371.7

 

12.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBIT

 

8.9

 

14.8

 

20.4

 

24.2

 

39.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS

 

$

0.55

 

$

0.98

 

$

1.39

 

$

1.67

 

44.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Seated Company Tractors

 

880

 

1,106

 

1,290

 

1,385

 

 

 

Average Seated Total Tractors

 

1,378

 

1,526

 

1,640

 

1,685

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Ratio

 

96.6

%

95.3

%

94.1

%

93.5

%

 

 

Debt to Total Capitalization

 

44.2

%

53.9

%

51.4

%

47.3

%

 

 

ROIC

 

4.1

%

5.9

%

7.0

%

7.9

%

 

 

 

11



Comparison of New and Previous Management Cases

(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)

 

Average Seated Total Tractors

 

Operating Ratio

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

 

 

% Non-Asset Based Revenue

 

EPS

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

12



Potential Valuation - Market Multiples

 

 

 

New Management Case

 

Previous Management Case

 

 

 

Mid-2006

 

Mid-2007

 

Mid-2008

 

Mid-2006

 

Mid-2007

 

Mid-2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Year EPS

 

$

0.98

 

$

1.39

 

$

1.67

 

$

0.97

 

$

1.12

 

$

1.32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Future Per Share Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

at Multiple of:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12.0x

 

$

11.73

 

$

16.68

 

$

20.04

 

$

11.66

 

$

13.41

 

$

15.82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14.0

 

13.69

 

19.46

 

23.38

 

13.61

 

15.64

 

18.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16.0

 

15.64

 

22.24

 

26.72

 

15.55

 

17.87

 

21.09

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discounted Per Share Price

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

at Multiple of: (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12.0x

 

$

10.47

 

$

13.30

 

$

14.26

 

$

10.41

 

$

10.69

 

$

11.26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14.0

 

12.22

 

15.51

 

16.64

 

12.15

 

12.47

 

13.13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16.0

 

13.97

 

17.73

 

19.02

 

13.88

 

14.25

 

15.01

 

 


Note: For further valuation analysis see page 14.

(a) Discounted back to 6/30/05 using an equity discount rate of 12.0%.

 

13



Valuation Analysis - New Management Case

(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)

 

The revised topline growth coupled with profitability improvements in 2007 and 2008 significantly raise the DCF and LBO valuation ranges.

 

[CHART]

 

 

 

Comparable Company

 

Acquisition Multiple

 

DCF

 

LBO

 

Market Price

 

 

 

LTM
EBIT

 

FY 2005
EBIT

 

FY 2005
EPS

 

FY 2005
EBIT

 

FY 2005
EPS

 

Perpetual
Growth Rate
4.0% - 5.0%

 

IRR

 

52 Week

 

Data:

 

$

5.7

 

$

8.9

 

$

0.55

 

$

8.9

 

$

0.55

 

Discount Rate

 

25.0 - 30.0%

 

High / Low

 

Metric:

 

10.0x - 12.0x

 

9.0x - 11.0x

 

12.0x - 16.0x

 

9.0x - 11.0x

 

13.0x - 17.0x

 

11.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

14



[GRAPHIC]

 

IV. Migration to Non-Asset Based Model and Recap

 



Migration to NAB Model and Recap — Benefits/Issues

 

BENEFITS

 

ISSUES

•     Signals dramatic change for enhancing shareholder value.

•     Transition shareholder base to supporters of the new vision.

                  Capitalizes on trend of non-asset based model with prospect of increased multiple to follow.

                  Potential long-term enhancement of returns on capital and minimizes capital expenditures going forward.

 

 

                  Shareholder reaction of those looking for execution on TWINS asset-based history.

                  Substantial management time required — may be difficult to keep eye on ball of core operations

                  Integration risk.

                  Management depth in running substantial non-asset based business — may need to “buy” management team.

                  Free cash flow and balance sheet constraints will limit ability to pursue “transforming” acquisitions.

•     Competitive environment for non-asset based deals has driven transaction multiples higher.

                  Risk of losing customers.

•     Degradation of returns and increased debt in the near-term.

                  EPS dilution.

.

 

16



Overview of Migration to Non-Asset Based Case

 

                  Management plans the following to migrate TWINS to a primarily non-asset based model:

                  Started with the “new” management case

                  Limit equipment growth to solely maintaining status quo throughout the projection period (approximately 1,400 tractors).

                  Cost reduction, lane enhancements, and other operational improvements consistent with new management plan.

                  Bolster M&A strategy to effect one non-asset based acquisition per year (pages 18-20).

                  Results in 46% of business being non-asset based by 2008.

                  Execution risks we have identified include:

                  Availability, competition and price of acquisition targets.

                  Integration risk.

                  Management talent to acquire, manage and grow non-asset based business.

                  Risk in shifting focus from core business (e.g., customers, employees, etc.).

 

17



Pursuing a Non-Asset Based Acquisition Strategy

 

Requirements to Pursue Acquisition Strategy:

                  Cash on hand, ability to borrow, stock representing attractive acquisition currency.

                  Current availability under credit facility of $17.6 million — un-encumbered assets may allow for additional $15-20 million.

                  Experience managing the acquisition process and ability to act quickly.

                  Confidence of the Street/new investors that you can buy right and quickly integrate.

 

Feasibility of Acquisition Strategy:

                  Transforming acquisitions would be challenging:

                  Few available — auction atmosphere.

                  Negative arbitrage — high multiples.

                  Tack-on’s

                  Depending on size, several of these acquisitions and several years may be required to reach target critical mass.

                  Allows TWINS to build management expertise over time.

                  Seek acquisitions with lower execution risk and higher compatibility with existing business.

                  Sale multiples still high historically

                  Recent transactions have traded at EBITDA multiples approaching 8.0x.

 

18



Based on our assessment, we believe TWINS should focus its non-asset based acquisition strategy on companies with brokerage and intermodal capabilities.

 

Logistics-Model

 

Asset Intensity

 

Mkt Valuation

 

Execution Risk

 

Overall Fit

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brokerage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Intermodal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dedicated

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agent-Based TL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwarding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Warehousing

 

 

 

 

 

 


High

 

Low

 

19



 

 

We have assumed current market valuations and standard brokerage/IMC financials for TWINS’
                acquisitions.

 

Transaction Assumptions

 

Transaction Date #1

 

12/31/05

 

Transaction Date #2

 

12/31/06

 

Transaction Date #3

 

12/31/07

 

 

 

 

 

EBIT

 

$

2.9

 

EBIT Multiple

 

9.0

x

Transaction Value

 

$

25.9

 

Implied EBITDA Multiple

 

7.7

x

 

Financial Summary

 

Income Statement:

 

$

 

%

 

Revenue

 

60.0

 

$

100.0

%

Depreciation

 

0.5

 

0.8

%

Operating Expenses

 

57.1

 

95.2

%

EBIT

 

$

2.9

 

$

4.0

%

 

20



Projected Financials - Migration Case

(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)

 

 

 

For the Projected Fiscal Year Ending December 31,

 

CAGR

 

 

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

2007E

 

2008E

 

’05 - ’08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Asset Based

 

244.5

 

$

272.4

 

$

280.9

 

$

294.0

 

$

6.3

%

Non-Asset Based

 

16.0

 

79.2

 

155.0

 

246.0

 

148.8

%

Total Revenues

 

260.5

 

351.6

 

435.9

 

540.0

 

27.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBIT

 

8.9

 

13.9

 

18.1

 

24.6

 

40.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS

 

$

0.55

 

$

0.83

 

$

0.98

 

$

1.34

 

34.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Seated Company Tractors

 

880

 

1,000

 

1,070

 

1,140

 

 

 

Average Seated Total Tractors

 

1,378

 

1,420

 

1,420

 

1,440

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Ratio

 

96.6

%

96.1

%

95.8

%

95.4

%

 

 

Debt to Total Capitalization

 

55.9

%

60.8

%

65.6

%

61.3

%

 

 

ROIC

 

4.1

%

5.2

%

5.5

%

6.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary Balance Sheet:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Goodwill

 

$

22.9

 

$

45.8

 

$

68.8

 

$

68.8

 

 

 

Total Debt

 

76.2

 

101.4

 

137.2

 

127.9

 

 

 

Stockholders’ Equity

 

60.1

 

65.5

 

72.0

 

80.8

 

 

 

 

21



Comparison of Migration Case to New Management Case

 

(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)

 

% Non-Asset Based Revenue

 

[CHART]

 

Debt to Total Capitalization

 

[CHART]

 

EPS

 

[CHART]

 

ROIC

 

[CHART]

 

22



Potential Valuation - Market Multiples

 

                  To account for a greater percentage of non-asset based revenue, we have increased the market PE   multiple by two turns.

 

                  Due to higher risk associated with this strategy, we have increased the cost of equity assumption (discount rate) to 17.0% from the 12.0% used in the Management Case.

 

 

 

Migration Case

 

 

 

Mid-2006

 

Mid-2007

 

Mid-2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Year EPS

 

$

0.83

 

$

0.98

 

$

1.34

 

Future Per Share Price
at Multiple of:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14.0x

 

$

11.57

 

$

13.74

 

$

18.76

 

16.0

 

13.22

 

15.70

 

21.44

 

18.0

 

14.87

 

17.66

 

24.12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discounted Per Share Price
at Multiple of:
(a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14.0x

 

9.88

 

$

10.04

 

$

11.71

 

16.0

 

11.30

 

11.47

 

13.38

 

18.0

 

12.71

 

12.90

 

15.06

 

 


Note: For further valuation analysis see page 23.

(a) Discounted back to 6/30/05 using an equity discount rate of 17.0%.

 

23



 

 

Valuation Analysis - Migration Case

 

(Dollars in Millions, Except per Share)

 

                  For the DCF analysis we have increased the cost of capital assumption (discount rate) to 13.0% from the 11.0% used in the Management Case.

 

                  This corresponds to the 5% increase in the cost of equity on the previous page — a 5% increase in cost of equity with an approximate 50% debt/cap. ratio results in an approximate 2% increase in cost of capital.

 

[CHART]

 

24



 

Re-Capitalization

 

Management and BOD confidence in TWINS strategy is crucial to re-capitalizing the Company.

 

Potential Terms on New Preferred Equity Investment will be Return Driven:

                  Will require current yield - cash, PIK or combination thereof.

                  Equity upside through conversion feature or warrant coverage.

                  “Equity pricing”

                  Potentially at premium to current market, but most likely below potential acquisition price.

 

Issues:

                  What are investors re-capitalizing? — Settle on direction of TWINS strategic plan?

                  Investor appetite

                  Does strategy and financial prospects present compelling risk adjusted returns.

                  Use of proceeds

                  Proceeds used to repurchase common likely viewed more negatively than “new money”     used to execute on acquisition strategy.

                  Dilution

 

25



[GRAPHIC]

 

V. Next Steps

 

26



 

Next Steps

                  Potential Sale

                  Finalize NDA negotiations and information package disbursement to potential      buyers.

                  Inform buyers of timeline (week of July 18th).

                  Request for initial indication of interest (due August 5th or 12th).

                  BOD to evaluate interest level.

                  Management meeting/due diligence for select parties if interest is acceptable to BOD.

 

                  Process for Migration to Non-Asset Based Model and Recap

                  BOD/management to evaluate and conclude on viability of scenario.

                  If decision to proceed:

                  Tighten model, operational plan and develop “roadshow.”

                  Approach potential investors (weeks of August 1st and 8th).

                  Determine initial investor interest/reaction and decide whether to proceed.

 

                  Contact with Institutional Investors

                  Normal course — Board of Directors approved meeting only.

 

27



 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Exhibits

 



[GRAPHIC]

 

A. Comparable Companies Analysis

 



Comparable Companies Analysis - Truckload

 

Dollars in Millions, Except per Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LTM

 

Enterprise Value /

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price

 

% of 52

 

Market

 

Enterprise

 

Operating

 

EBITDA

 

EBIT

 

P/E

 

Company Name

 

7/16/05

 

Wk. High

 

Cap.

 

Value

 

Ratio

 

LTM

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

LTM

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

LTM

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

Celadon Group, Inc.

 

$

18.67

 

76.1

%

$

197.0

 

$

211.7

 

95.1

%

$

36.4

 

$

41.4

 

$

46.2

 

$

20.9

 

$

25.5

 

$

29.6

 

$

1.08

 

$

1.32

 

$

1.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.8

x

5.1

x

4.6

x

10.1

x

8.3

x

7.2

x

17.2

x

14.1

x

11.6

x

Covenant Transport

 

14.32

 

66.1

%

205.4

 

244.2

 

94.9

%

$

73.5

 

$

47.3

 

$

51.4

 

$

30.7

 

$

8.1

 

$

15.7

 

$

0.93

 

$

0.19

 

$

0.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.3

x

5.2

x

4.8

x

8.0

x

30.1

x

15.6

x

15.4

x

75.4

x

27.5

x

Heartland Express

 

20.92

 

90.1

%

1,569.0

 

1,280.8

 

79.6

%

$

127.3

 

$

138.5

 

$

153.5

 

$

95.8

 

$

105.3

 

$

119.7

 

$

0.86

 

$

0.96

 

$

1.09

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.1

x

9.2

x

8.3

x

13.4

x

12.2

x

10.7

x

24.4

x

21.8

x

19.2

x

J.B. Hunt Transport Services

 

20.01

 

80.0

%

3,348.7

 

3,411.2

 

88.4

%

$

497.1

 

$

530.1

 

$

593.3

 

$

341.8

 

$

372.8

 

$

428.3

 

$

1.02

 

$

1.33

 

$

1.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.9

x

6.4

x

5.7

x

10.0

x

9.2

x

8.0

x

19.6

x

15.1

x

13.2

x

Knight Transportation

 

24.97

 

86.1

%

1,452.8

 

1,414.2

 

81.9

%

$

129.3

 

$

156.1

 

$

191.0

 

$

85.1

 

$

102.1

 

$

126.1

 

$

0.89

 

$

1.07

 

$

1.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.9

x

9.1

x

7.4

x

16.6

x

13.9

x

11.2

x

28.1

x

23.3

x

19.2

x

Marten Transport

 

22.65

 

90.6

%

331.6

 

367.9

 

91.2

%

$

68.9

 

$

73.6

 

$

84.4

 

$

35.0

 

$

36.1

 

$

42.1

 

$

1.45

 

$

1.52

 

$

1.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.3

x

5.0

x

4.4

x

10.5

x

10.2

x

8.7

x

15.6

x

14.9

x

12.9

x

P.A.M. Transportation Services

 

16.97

 

80.8

%

189.4

 

202.2

 

93.8

%

$

50.7

 

$

56.0

 

$

61.0

 

$

20.7

 

$

24.6

 

$

27.3

 

$

1.02

 

$

1.24

 

$

1.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.0

x

3.6

x

3.3

x

9.8

x

8.2

x

7.4

x

16.7

x

13.7

x

12.1

x

Swift Transportation

 

23.43

 

89.5

%

1,762.0

 

2,322.3

 

93.3

%

$

388.6

 

$

441.8

 

$

519.1

 

$

197.4

 

$

221.5

 

$

273.1

 

$

1.44

 

$

1.60

 

$

2.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.0

x

5.3

x

4.5

x

11.8

x

10.5

x

8.5

x

16.3

x

14.6

x

11.7

x

U.S. Xpress Enterprises

 

12.41

 

36.0

%

203.0

 

333.5

 

97.0

%

$

80.8

 

$

69.4

 

$

92.3

 

$

34.6

 

$

19.4

 

$

36.5

 

$

0.93

 

$

0.45

 

$

1.03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.1

x

4.8

x

3.6

x

9.6

x

17.2

x

9.1

x

13.3

x

27.6

x

12.0

x

USA Truck

 

27.02

 

95.0

%

260.2

 

405.5

 

93.2

%

$

65.9

 

$

75.7

 

$

91.8

 

$

27.1

 

$

33.5

 

$

42.5

 

$

1.28

 

$

1.62

 

$

2.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.2

x

5.4

x

4.4

x

15.0

x

12.1

x

9.5

x

21.0

x

16.7

x

12.3

x

Werner Enterprises

 

19.76

 

85.0

%

1,616.8

 

1,520.8

 

91.5

%

$

298.5

 

$

333.1

 

$

364.6

 

$

149.3

 

$

176.8

 

$

201.3

 

$

1.14

 

$

1.33

 

$

1.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.1

x

4.6

x

4.2

x

10.2

x

8.6

x

7.6

x

17.4

x

14.9

x

13.2

x

 

 

 

Maximum

 

97.0

%

10.9

 x

9.2

 x

8.3

 x

16.6

 x

30.1

 x

15.6

 x

28.1

 x

75.4

 x

27.5

 x

 

 

Minimum

 

79.6

%

3.3

 

3.6

 

3.3

 

8.0

 

8.2

 

7.2

 

13.3

 

13.7

 

11.6

 

 

 

Median

 

93.2

%

5.8

 x

5.2

 x

4.5

 x

10.2

 x

10.5

 x

8.7

 x

17.2

 x

15.1

 x

12.9

 x

 

 

Mean

 

90.9

%

6.2

 

5.8

 

5.0

 

11.4

 

12.8

 

9.4

 

18.6

 

22.9

 

15.0

 

 

 

Mean (Excluding Min & Max)

 

91.5

%

5.9

 

5.6

 

4.8

 

11.1

 

11.3

 

9.0

 

18.2

 

18.1

 

14.0

 

 

Research Case:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TWINS

 

6.80

 

 

67.9

%

$

45.1

 

$

92.4

 

$

97.8

%

$

29.2

 

$

36.4

 

$

46.2

 

$

5.7

 

$

10.0

 

$

13.8

 

$

0.26

 

$

0.61

 

$

0.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.2

x

2.5

x

2.0

x

16.1

x

9.2

x

6.7

x

25.9

x

11.1

x

8.0

x

 

Management Case:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TWINS

 

6.80

 

 

67.9

%

$

45.1

 

$

92.4

 

$

97.8

%

$

29.2

 

$

31.2

 

$

41.2

 

$

5.7

 

$

8.9

 

$

14.8

 

$

0.26

 

$

0.55

 

$

0.98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.2

x

3.0

x

2.2

x

16.1

x

10.4

x

6.2

x

25.9

x

12.4

x

7.0

x

 

30



 

 

Comparable Companies Analysis - Non-Asset Based 3PL

 

Dollars in Millions, Except per Share

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enterprise Value /

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price

 

% of 52

 

Market

 

Enterprise

 

EBITDA

 

EBIT

 

P/E

 

Company Name

 

7/16/05

 

Wk. High

 

Cap.

 

Value

 

LTM

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

LTM

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

LTM

 

2005E

 

2006E

 

Ground Based Asset-Lite

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide

 

$

60.18

 

101.0

%

$

5,290.8

 

$

5,043.3

 

$

256.5

 

$

311.9

 

$

354.8

 

$

243.4

 

$

296.0

 

$

337.9

 

$

1.73

 

$

2.10

 

$

2.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19.7

x

16.2

x

14.2

x

20.7

x

17.0

x

14.9

x

34.8

x

28.7

x

25.1

x

Dynamex, Inc.

 

17.30

 

78.5

%

208.5

 

204.2

 

$

21.4

 

$

23.0

 

$

27.2

 

$

19.8

 

$

21.5

 

$

25.6

 

$

1.03

 

$

1.16

 

$

1.36

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9.5

x

8.9

x

7.5

x

10.3

x

9.5

x

8.0

x

16.7

x

14.9

x

12.7

x

Forward Air

 

29.99

 

95.2

%

991.0

 

875.0

 

$

63.2

 

$

79.5

 

$

95.5

 

$

56.2

 

$

71.7

 

$

87.0

 

$

1.10

 

$

1.40

 

$

1.67

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13.8

x

11.0

x

9.2

x

15.6

x

12.2

x

10.1

x

27.2

x

21.4

x

18.0

x

Hub Group, Inc.

 

25.71

 

76.8

%

570.0

 

554.4

 

$

54.6

 

$

60.2

 

$

66.0

 

$

43.4

 

$

50.1

 

$

59.3

 

$

1.21

 

$

1.38

 

$

1.64

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.2

x

9.2

x

8.4

x

12.8

x

11.1

x

9.3

x

21.2

x

18.6

x

15.7

x

Landstar System

 

33.01

 

84.1

%

2,035.9

 

2,074.2

 

$

160.7

 

$

166.7

 

$

192.0

 

$

145.4

 

$

150.9

 

$

171.8

 

$

1.14

 

$

1.49

 

$

1.69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12.9

x

12.4

x

10.8

x

14.3

x

13.7

x

12.1

x

29.0

x

22.2

x

19.5

x

Pacer International

 

23.14

 

85.2

%

889.2

 

1,055.2

 

$

96.8

 

$

104.9

 

$

115.9

 

$

89.7

 

$

98.1

 

$

108.0

 

$

1.29

 

$

1.39

 

$

1.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.9

x

10.1

x

9.1

x

11.8

x

10.8

x

9.8

x

17.9

x

16.6

x

14.2

x

Quality Distribution, Inc.

 

9.71

 

78.2

%

186.8

 

462.1

 

$

58.3

 

$

63.9

 

$

68.8

 

$

37.4

 

$

45.9

 

$

50.3

 

$

0.45

 

$

0.74

 

$

0.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.9

x

7.2

x

6.7

x

12.4

x

10.1

x

9.2

x

21.7

x

13.1

x

10.8

x

Universal Truckload Services, Inc.

 

16.40

 

69.8

%

264.3

 

236.4

 

$

25.3

 

$

30.4

 

$

35.9

 

$

21.2

 

$

25.6

 

$

30.4

 

$

1.17

 

$

1.04

 

$

1.17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9.4

x

7.8

x

6.6

x

11.2

x

9.2

x

7.8

x

14.0

x

15.8

x

14.0

x

 

 

 

Ground Based Asset-Lite Market Multiples:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum

 

 

 

 

 

19.7

 x

16.2

 x

14.2

 x

20.7

 x

17.0

 x

14.9

 x

34.8

 x

28.7

 x

25.1

 x

 

 

Minimum

 

 

 

 

 

7.9

 

7.2

 

6.6

 

10.3

 

9.2

 

7.8

 

14.0

 

13.1

 

10.8

 

 

 

Median

 

 

 

 

10.5

 x

9.6

 x

8.8

 x

12.6

 x

10.9

 x

9.6

 x

21.5

 x

17.6

 x

14.9

 x

 

 

Mean

 

 

 

 

 

11.8

 

10.3

 

9.1

 

13.6

 

11.7

 

10.1

 

22.8

 

18.9

 

16.2

 

 

 

Mean (Excluding Min & Max)

 

 

 

 

 

11.1

 

9.9

 

8.6

 

13.0

 

11.2

 

9.7

 

22.3

 

18.3

 

15.7

 

 

Freight Forwarding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eagle Global Logistics

 

20.99

 

$

60.0

%

1,104.0

 

$

997.3

 

$

122.3

 

$

134.2

 

$

151.6

 

$

86.8

 

$

98.7

 

$

116.2

 

$

1.12

 

$

1.16

 

$

1.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8.2

x

7.4

x

6.6

x

11.5

x

10.1

x

8.6

x

18.8

x

18.1

x

14.0

x

Expeditors International

 

53.20

 

91.1

%

6,007.6

 

5,549.5

 

$

274.5

 

$

315.7

 

$

397.8

 

$

246.8

 

$

285.6

 

$

366.5

 

$

1.46

 

$

1.68

 

$

2.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20.2

x

17.6

x

14.0

x

22.5

x

19.4

x

15.1

 x

36.3

 x

31.7

 x

25.2

 x

UTi Worldwide

 

69.10

 

89.6

%

2,264.2

 

2,213.1

 

$

127.6

 

$

151.4

 

$

178.6

 

$

103.4

 

$

128.2

 

$

154.5

 

$

2.27

 

$

2.62

 

$

3.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

17.3

x

14.6

x

12.4

x

21.4

x

17.3

x

14.3

x

30.4

x

26.4

x

21.6

x

 

 

 

Freight-Forwarding Market Multiples:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

17.3

x

14.6

x

12.4

x

21.4

x

17.3

x

14.3

x

30.4

x

26.4

x

21.6

x

 

 

Mean

 

15.2

 

13.2

 

11.0

 

18.5

 

15.6

 

12.7

 

28.5

 

25.4

 

20.3

 

 

 

 

Total 3PL Market Multiples:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum

 

20.2

x

17.6

x

14.2

x

22.5

x

19.4

x

15.1

x

36.3

x

31.7

x

25.2

x

 

 

Minimum

 

7.9

 

7.2

 

6.6

 

10.3

 

9.2

 

7.8

 

14.0

 

13.1

 

10.8

 

 

 

Median

 

10.9

x

10.1

x

9.1

x

12.8

x

11.1

x

9.8

x

21.7

x

18.6

x

15.7

x

 

 

Mean

 

12.7

 

11.1

 

9.6

 

14.9

 

12.8

 

10.8

 

24.4

 

20.7

 

17.3

 

 

 

Mean (Excluding Min & Max)

 

12.4

 

10.8

 

9.4

 

14.6

 

12.4

 

10.7

 

24.2

 

20.3

 

17.2

 

 

31



 

Comparable Transactions

 

(Dollars in Millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

LTM

 

Multiples

 

Effective

 

 

 

 

 

Transaction

 

Transaction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net

 

Date

 

Target

 

Acquiror

 

Value

 

Value

 

Revenue

 

EBITDA

 

EBIT

 

Income

 

Revenue

 

EBITDA

 

EBIT

 

Income

 

Pending

 

Overnite Corp.

 

United Parcel Service, Inc.

 

$

1,222.2

 

$

1,267.0

 

$

1,686.9

 

$

173.0

 

$

115.0

 

$

67.2

 

0.8

x

7.3

x

11.0

x

18.2

x

 

 

Provides regional LTL services

 

Package delivery, logistics, SCM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5/25/05

 

USF Corporation

 

Yellow Roadway Corporation

 

1,371.1

 

1,470.3

 

2,394.6

 

216.4

 

112.1

 

55.8

 

0.6

x

6.8

x

13.1

x

24.6

x

 

 

Regional LTL, supply chain mgt.

 

National LTL services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9/13/04

 

Boyd Bros. Transportation Inc.

 

BBT Acquisition Corporation

 

27.4

 

55.3

 

139.6

 

13.4

 

3.0

 

1.0

 

0.4

x

4.1

x

18.1

x

27.0

x

 

 

Flatbed truckload carrier

 

Investors and Management

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/16/04

 

Clark Bros. Transfer, Inc.

 

SCS Transportation, Inc.

 

24.5

 

30.5

 

66.0

 

5.0

 

4.0

 

N/A

 

0.5

x

6.1

x

7.6

x

N/A

 

 

 

Provides LTL services

 

Provides LTL services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/11/03

 

Roadway Corporation

 

Yellow Corporation

 

965.5

 

1,121.9

 

3,165.9

 

183.5

 

108.5

 

46.4

 

0.4

x

6.1

x

10.3

x

20.8

x

 

 

Provides LTL services

 

Provides LTL services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7/2/03

 

Merit Distribution Services

 

Swift Transportation

 

76.0

 

76.0

 

140.0

 

10.4

 

2.0

 

8.4

 

0.5

x

7.3

x

9.0

x

N/A

 

 

 

Long-haul refrig. carrier

 

Provides TL services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/28/03

 

Landair Corporation

 

Management

 

98.2

 

101.5

 

102.5

 

18.5

 

9.0

 

5.9

 

1.0

x

5.5

x

11.2

x

16.5

x

 

 

Provides TL services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1/23/03

 

Arnold Transportation Services

 

Jefferies Capital Partners

 

55.0

 

55.0

 

171.0

 

22.2

 

6.1

 

3.8

 

0.3

x

2.5

x

9.0

x

14.5

x

 

 

Provides TL services

 

Private equity firm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/15/02

 

Motor Cargo Industries

 

Overnite Transportation Co

 

81.3

 

76.7

 

138.6

 

19.6

 

10.8

 

6.8

 

0.6

x

3.9

x

7.1

x

11.9

x

 

 

Provides LTL services

 

Provides LTL services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/3/01

 

Arnold Industries

 

Roadway Corporation

 

478.0

 

430.1

 

393.8

 

68.0

 

42.0

 

29.2

 

1.1

x

6.3

x

10.2

x

16.4

x

 

 

Provides TL & LTL services

 

Provides LTL services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6/29/01

 

M.S. Carriers

 

Swift Transportation Co Inc

 

392.2

 

639.8

 

712.6

 

107.8

 

38.8

 

12.8

 

0.9

x

5.9

x

16.5

x

30.7

x

 

 

Provides TL services

 

Provides TL services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4/30/01

 

Kenan Transport Company

 

Advantage Management Group

 

87.2

 

89.2

 

157.6

 

21.2

 

12.3

 

8.9

 

0.6

x

4.2

x

10.0

x

16.4

x

 

 

Petroleum and chemical trucking

 

Petroleum-transport company

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/12/01

 

American Freightways

 

FedEx

 

946.4

 

1,208.4

 

1,352.6

 

189.3

 

126.9

 

66.3

 

0.9

x

6.4

x

9.5

x

14.3

x

 

 

Provides LTL services

 

Provides global delivery services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7/20/00

 

KLLM Transport Services, Inc.

 

High Road Acquisition Group

 

33.0

 

80.0

 

236.9

 

20.1

 

1.3

 

(1.3

)

0.3

x

4.0

x

N/M

 

N/M

 

 

 

Provides TL services

 

Investment company

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Minimum

 

0.3

x

2.5

x

7.1

x

11.9

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum

 

1.1

 

7.3

 

18.1

 

30.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

0.6

x

5.5

x

11.0

x

19.2

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

0.6

 

6.0

 

10.2

 

16.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean (Excluding Min and Max)

 

0.7

 

6.1

 

11.8

 

21.1

 

 

32