8-K

UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) October 10, 2007

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Ohio	1-9518	34-0963169
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)	(Commission File Number)	(IRS Employer Identification No.)

6300 Wilson Mills Road, Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 (Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code 440-461-5000

Not Applicable (Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

o   Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

o   Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

o   Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

o   Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

On October 10, 2007, The Progressive Corporation issued a news release containing financial results for the Company and its subsidiaries for the month of, and year-to-date period ended, September 2007 and selected quarterly financial results. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

See exhibit index on page 4.

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SIGNATURES

     Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Dated: October 10, 2007

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION
By:	/s/ Jeffrey W. Basch
	Name:	Jeffrey W. Basch
	Title:	Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer

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EXHIBIT INDEX

Exhibit No.
Under Reg.	Form 8-K
S-K Item 601	Exhibit No.	Description
(99)	99	News release dated October 10, 2007, containing financial results of The Progressive Corporation and its subsidiaries for the month of, and year-to-date period ended, September 2007 and selected quarterly financial results

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EX-99

Exhibit 99

	NEWS RELEASE
The Progressive Corporation	Company Contact:
6300 Wilson Mills Road	Patrick Brennan
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143	(440)395-2370
http://www.progressive.com

Progressive is scheduled to hold a one-hour conference call to address questions on Friday, November 2, 2007, at 9:00 a.m. eastern time, subsequent to the posting of our Shareholders’ Report online and the filing of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q with the SEC. Registration for the teleconference and webcast is scheduled to be available at http://investors.progressive.com/events.asp on or after October 15, 2007.

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS SEPTEMBER RESULTS

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO — October 10, 2007 — The Progressive Corporation today reported the following results for September and the third quarter 2007:

(millions, except per share	Month							Quarter
amounts and ratios)	2007		2006		Change			2007		2006		Change
Net premiums written	$	1,040.8	$	1,054.7		(1	)%	$	3,483.2	$	3,581.5		(3	)%
Net premiums earned		1,061.2		1,087.0		(2	)%		3,461.8		3,544.3		(2	)%
Net income		103.8		138.1		(25	)%		299.2		409.6		(27	)%
Per share		.15		.18		(18	)%		.42		.53		(21	)%
Pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities		32.9		6.0		448	%		58.5		2.4		2338	%
Combined ratio		94.8		86.9	7.9 pts.				93.7		87.3	6.4 pts.
Average diluted equivalent shares		701.8		766.9		(8	)%		710.8		772.2		(8	)%

	September		September
(in thousands)	2007		2006		Change
Policies in Force
Total Personal Auto		7,031.1		6,901.1		2	%
Total Special Lines		3,140.4		2,905.5		8	%
Total Commercial Auto		540.9		505.8		7	%

Progressive offers insurance to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines Business writes insurance for private passenger automobiles and recreational vehicles. Our Commercial Auto Business writes primary liability, physical damage and other auto-related insurance for automobiles and trucks owned by small businesses.

See the “Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information and the “Monthly Commentary” at the end of this release for additional discussion.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
INCOME STATEMENT
September 2007
(millions — except per share amounts)
(unaudited)

	Current
	Month		Comments on Monthly Results1
Net premiums written	$	1,040.8
Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$	1,061.2
Investment income		64.7
Net realized gains (losses) on securities		32.9	Includes $9.8 million of write-downs on securities determined to have an other-than-temporary decline in market value.
Service revenues		1.6
Total revenues		1,160.4
Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		772.9
Policy acquisition costs		106.5
Other underwriting expenses		127.2
Investment expenses		.9
Service expenses		1.8
Interest expense		11.6
Total expenses		1,020.9
Income before income taxes		139.5
Provision for income taxes		35.7	Lower effective rate primarily reflects a $4 million tax benefit related to a deduction associated with the payment of the special cash dividend to employees holding unvested restricted stock awards.
Net income	$	103.8
COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
Basic:
Average shares outstanding		694.2
Per share	$	.15
Diluted:
Average shares outstanding		694.2
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation		7.6
Total equivalent shares		701.8
Per share	$	.15

¹ See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release for additional discussion. For a description of our reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2006 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2006 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.

The following table sets forth the investment results for the month:

Fully taxable equivalent total return:
Fixed-income securities	.9	%
Common stocks	3.9	%
Total portfolio	1.4	%
Pretax recurring investment book yield	5.4	%

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
INCOME STATEMENTS
September 2007 Year-to-Date
(millions — except per share amounts)
(unaudited)

	Year-to-Date
	2007		2006			% Change
Net premiums written	$	10,688.6	$	10,937.8			(2	)
Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$	10,464.8	$	10,609.2			(1	)
Investment income		514.8		484.0			6
Net realized gains (losses) on securities		75.2		(24.2	)	NM
Service revenues		17.5		23.6			(26	)
Total revenues		11,072.3		11,092.6			0
Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		7,398.0		7,034.7			5
Policy acquisition costs		1,058.1		1,086.7			(3	)
Other underwriting expenses		1,154.3		1,042.2			11
Investment expenses		10.3		8.8			17
Service expenses		15.3		19.3			(21	)
Interest expense		74.1		58.4			27
Total expenses		9,710.1		9,250.1			5
Income before income taxes		1,362.2		1,842.5			(26	)
Provision for income taxes		415.8		595.9			(30	)
Net income	$	946.4	$	1,246.6			(24	)
COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
Basic:
Average shares outstanding		720.6		779.7			(8	)
Per share	$	1.31	$	1.60			(18	)
Diluted:
Average shares outstanding		720.6		779.7			(8	)
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation		8.3		9.8			(15	)
Total equivalent shares		728.9		789.5			(8	)
Per share	$	1.30	$	1.58			(18	)

NM = Not Meaningful

The following table sets forth the investment results for the year-to-date period:

	2007			2006
Fully taxable equivalent total return:
Fixed-income securities		4.5	%		4.5	%
Common stocks		9.8	%		8.7	%
Total portfolio		5.3	%		5.1	%
Pretax recurring investment book yield		4.8	%		4.6	%

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
September 2007
($ in millions)
(unaudited)

Current Month

										Commercial
	Personal Lines									Auto			Other		Companywide
	Agency			Direct			Total			Business			Businesses1		Total
Net Premiums Written	$	565.8		$	342.6		$	908.4		$	131.0		$	1.4	$	1,040.8
% Growth in NPW		(3	)%		2	%		(1	)%		(1	)%	NM			(1	)%
Net Premiums Earned	$	581.6		$	335.6		$	917.2		$	142.4		$	1.6	$	1,061.2
% Growth in NPE		(4	)%		0	%		(2	)%		(2	)%	NM			(2	)%
GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio		73.3			71.9			72.8			72.9		NM			72.8
Expense ratio		21.9			22.6			22.2			20.7		NM			22.0
Combined ratio		95.2			94.5			95.0			93.6		NM			94.8
Actuarial Adjustments2
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years															$	.8
Current accident year																(1.4	)
Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$	1.3		$	.4		$	1.7		$	(2.3	)	$	0	$	(.6	)
Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment															$	.8
All other development																(2.6	)
Total development															$	(1.8	)
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio																72.8
Accident year loss/LAE ratio																72.6
Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio																72.8
Expense ratio																21.8
Combined ratio																94.6

NM = Not Meaningful

1	Primarily includes professional liability insurance for community banks and Progressive’s run-off businesses. The other businesses generated an underwriting loss of $.6 million for the month.
2	Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
September 2007 Year-to-Date
($ in millions) (unaudited)
Year-to-Date

										Commercial
	Personal Lines									Auto			Other			Companywide
	Agency			Direct			Total			Business			Businesses1			Total
Net Premiums Written	$	5,860.5		$	3,375.9		$	9,236.4		$	1,435.0		$	17.2		$	10,688.6
% Growth in NPW		(4	)%		0	%		(2	)%		(3	)%	NM				(2	)%
Net Premiums Earned	$	5,772.3		$	3,285.3		$	9,057.6		$	1,391.0		$	16.2		$	10,464.8
% Growth in NPE		(3	)%		1	%		(2	)%		1	%	NM				(1	)%
GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio		71.7			70.2			71.2			68.1		NM				70.7
Expense ratio		21.3			21.1			21.2			20.3		NM				21.1
Combined ratio		93.0			91.3			92.4			88.4		NM				91.8
Actuarial Adjustments2
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years																$	32.9
Current accident year																	(6.3	)
Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$	14.4		$	9.0		$	23.4		$	3.5		$	(.3	)	$	26.6
Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment																$	32.9
All other development																	(92.3	)
Total development																$	(59.4	)
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio																	70.7
Accident year loss/LAE ratio																	70.1
Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio																	70.7
Expense ratio																	20.9
Combined ratio																	91.6
Statutory Surplus3																$	5,155.3

NM = Not Meaningful

	September		September
Policies in Force	2007		2006		Change
(in thousands)
Agency – Auto		4,459.2		4,482.4		(1	)%
Direct – Auto		2,571.9		2,418.7		6	%
Special Lines4		3,140.4		2,905.5		8	%
Total Personal Lines		10,171.5		9,806.6		4	%
Commercial Auto Business		540.9		505.8		7	%

1	The other businesses generated an underwriting profit of $2.4 million.
2	Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.
3	During September, the insurance subsidiaries declared ordinary dividends of $80.0 million, net of capital contributions, for payment to the parent company.
4	Includes insurance for motorcycles, recreational vehicles, mobile homes, watercraft, snowmobiles and similar items, as well as a personal umbrella product.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION
(millions — except per share amounts)
(unaudited)

	September
	2007
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:1
Investments — Available-for-sale, at fair value:
Fixed maturities (amortized cost: $9,664.2)	$	9,677.1
Equity securities:
Preferred stocks2 (cost: $2,358.7)		2,312.9
Common equities (cost: $1,388.5)		2,453.1
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $374.1)		374.1
Total investments3		14,817.2
Net premiums receivable		2,614.0
Deferred acquisition costs		461.1
Other assets		1,773.2
Total assets	$	19,665.5
Unearned premiums	$	4,547.4
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves		5,920.8
Other liabilities3		1,679.9
Debt		2,173.5
Shareholders’ equity		5,343.9
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	$	19,665.5
Common Shares outstanding		698.1
Shares repurchased — September		7.1
Average cost per share	$	19.54
Book value per share	$	7.65
Trailing 12-month return on average shareholders’ equity		20.8	%
Net unrealized pretax gains on investments	$	1,034.7
Increase (decrease) from August 2007	$	104.3
Increase (decrease) from December 2006	$	116.5
Debt-to-total capital ratio		28.9	%
Fixed-income portfolio duration	3.4 years
Weighted average credit quality	AA
Year-to-date Gainshare factor		.77

1	Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $309.8 million.
2	As of September 30, 2007, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $3.0 million as a realized loss during the period we held these securities.
3	Includes net unsettled security transactions of $136.5 million.

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Monthly Commentary

• On September 14, 2007, The Progressive Corporation paid $1.4 billion related to the $2.00 per Common Share extraordinary cash dividend that was declared by the Board of Directors on June 13, 2007, and payable to shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 31, 2007.

About Progressive

The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies, in business since 1937, is the country’s third largest auto insurance group and largest seller of motorcycle and personal watercraft policies based on premiums written, and is a market leader in commercial auto insurance.

Progressive is committed to becoming consumers’ #1 choice for auto insurance by providing competitive products and rates that meet drivers’ needs throughout their lifetimes, superior online and in-person customer service, and best-in-class, 24-hour claims service, including its concierge level of claims service available at service centers located in major metropolitan areas throughout the United States.

Progressive companies offer consumers choices in how to shop for, buy and manage their auto insurance policies. Progressive offers its products, including personal and commercial auto, motorcycle, boat and recreational vehicle insurance, through more than 30,000 independent insurance agencies throughout the U.S. and online and by phone directly from the Company. To find an agent or to get a quote, go to www.progressive.com.

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, are publicly traded at NYSE:PGR. For more information, including a guide to interpreting the monthly reporting package, visit www.progressive.com.

Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Statements in this release that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions and projections generally; inflation and changes in economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing and loss reserving methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes and the timing thereof; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments; disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation pending or that may be filed against us; weather conditions (including the severity and frequency of storms, hurricanes, snowfalls, hail and winter conditions); changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems) and business functions; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Reported results, therefore, may appear to be volatile in certain accounting periods.

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