EX-99 2 l25204aexv99.htm EX-99 EX-99
 

Exhibit 99
 
  NEWS
RELEASE
     
The Progressive Corporation
6300 Wilson Mills Road
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143
http://www.progressive.com 		  Company Contact:
Patrick Brennan
(440)395-2370
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
     MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO — March 14, 2007 — The Progressive Corporation today reported the following results for February 2007:
                         
    February   February    
(millions, except per share amounts and ratios)   2007   2006   Change
Net premiums written
   $ 1,194.5     $ 1,209.3       (1 )%
Net premiums earned
     1,075.5       1,078.0       0 %
Net income
     94.7       126.5       (25 )%
Per share
     .13       .16       (21 )%
Combined ratio
     92.8       86.3     6.5 pts.
     Progressive offers insurance to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines Businesses write insurance for private passenger automobiles and recreational vehicles. Our Commercial Auto Business writes primary liability, physical damage and other auto-related insurance for automobiles and trucks owned by small businesses.
     See the “Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information and the “Monthly Commentary” at the end of this release for additional discussion.

-1-

 

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
INCOME STATEMENT
February 2007
(millions — except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
                 
    Current Month   Comments on Monthly Results1
 
                
Direct premiums written
   $ 1,213.7          
 
                
 
                
Net premiums written
   $ 1,194.5          
 
                
 
                
Revenues:
                
Net premiums earned
   $ 1,075.5          
Investment income
     52.3          
Net realized gains (losses) on securities
     15.3          
Service revenues
     1.9          
 
                
Total revenues
     1,145.0          
 
                
Expenses:
                
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
     774.4          
Policy acquisition costs
     109.2          
Other underwriting expenses
     114.9          
Investment expenses
     1.0          
Service expenses
     1.8          
Interest expense
     6.3          
 
                
Total expenses
     1,007.6          
 
                
 
                
Income before income taxes
     137.4          
Provision for income taxes
     42.7          
 
                
Net income
   $ 94.7          
 
                
 
                
COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
                
Basic:
                
Average shares outstanding
     737.5          
 
                
Per share
   $ .13          
 
                
Diluted:
                
Average shares outstanding
     737.5          
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation
     7.7          
 
                
Total equivalent shares
     745.2          
 
                
Per share
   $ .13          
 
                
1See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release for additional discussion. For a description of our reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2006 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2006 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.
The following table sets forth the investment results for the month:
         
Fully taxable equivalent total return:
        
Fixed-income securities
     1.2 %
Common stocks
     (1.6 )%
Total portfolio
     .8 %
 
        
Pretax recurring investment book yield
     4.5 %

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
INCOME STATEMENTS
February 2007 Year-to-Date
(millions — except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
                         
    Year-to-Date    
    2007   2006   % Change
 
                        
Direct premiums written
   $ 2,550.0     $ 2,583.8       (1 )
 
                        
Net premiums written
   $ 2,508.9     $ 2,539.0       (1 )
 
                        
 
                        
Revenues:
                        
Net premiums earned
   $ 2,410.8     $ 2,414.0       0  
Investment income
     102.0       95.0       7  
Net realized gains (losses) on securities
     15.5       1.0       1450  
Service revenues
     4.3       5.8       (26 )
 
                        
Total revenues
     2,532.6       2,515.8       1  
 
                        
Expenses:
                        
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
     1,668.8       1,600.1       4  
Policy acquisition costs
     245.2       249.7       (2 )
Other underwriting expenses
     257.4       229.2       12  
Investment expenses
     2.0       1.7       18  
Service expenses
     4.1       4.6       (11 )
Interest expense
     12.6       13.7       (8 )
 
                        
Total expenses
     2,190.1       2,099.0       4  
 
                        
 
                        
Income before income taxes
     342.5       416.8       (18 )
Provision for income taxes
     110.1       136.2       (19 )
 
                        
Net income
   $ 232.4     $ 280.6       (17 )
 
                        
 
                        
COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
                        
Basic:
                        
Average shares outstanding
     739.5       782.0       (5 )
 
                        
Per share
   $ .31     $ .36       (12 )
 
                        
Diluted:
                        
Average shares outstanding
     739.5       782.0       (5 )
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation
     7.6       10.6       (28 )
 
                        
Total equivalent shares
     747.1       792.6       (6 )
 
                        
Per share
   $ .31     $ .35       (12 )
 
                        
The following table sets forth the investment results for the year-to-date period:
                 
    2007   2006
Fully taxable equivalent total return:
                
Fixed-income securities
     1.4 %     .6 %
Common stocks
     .3 %     3.3 %
Total portfolio
     1.3 %     .9 %
 
                
Pretax recurring investment book yield
     4.4 %     4.2 %

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
February 2007
($ in millions)
(unaudited)
Current Month
                                                 
    Personal Lines   Commercial        
                            Auto   Other   Companywide
    Agency   Direct   Total   Business   Businesses1   Total
Net Premiums Written
   $ 654.6     $ 385.2     $ 1,039.8     $ 153.1     $ 1.6     $ 1,194.5  
% Growth in NPW
     (3 )%     2 %     (1 )%     (1 )%   NM     (1 )%
Net Premiums Earned
   $ 595.8     $ 336.2     $ 932.0     $ 141.7     $ 1.8     $ 1,075.5  
% Growth in NPE
     (2 )%     2 %     (1 )%     3 %   NM     0 %
 
                                                
GAAP Ratios
                                                
Loss/LAE ratio
     73.9       71.1       72.9       66.4     NM     72.0  
Expense ratio
     21.2       20.2       20.8       20.6     NM     20.8  
 
                                                
Combined ratio
     95.1       91.3       93.7       87.0     NM     92.8  
 
                                                
 
                                                
Actuarial Adjustments2
                                                
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
                                                
Prior accident years
                                           $ 11.9  
Current accident year
                                             2.2  
 
                                                
Calendar year actuarial adjustment
   $ 6.5     $ 3.8     $ 10.3     $ 3.8     $ 0     $ 14.1  
 
                                                
 
                                                
Prior Accident Years Development
                                                
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
                                                
Actuarial adjustment
                                           $ 11.9  
All other development
                                             (36.0 )
 
                                                
Total development
                                           $ (24.1 )
 
                                                
 
                                                
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio
                                             72.0  
 
                                                
Accident year loss/LAE ratio
                                             69.8  
 
                                                
 
                                                
Statutory Ratios
                                                
Loss/LAE ratio
                                             72.2  
Expense ratio
                                             19.6  
 
                                                
Combined ratio
                                             91.8  
 
                                                
NM = Not Meaningful
1Primarily includes professional liability insurance for community banks and Progressive’s run-off businesses. The other businesses generated an underwriting profit of $.1 million for the month.
2Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
February 2007 Year-to-Date
($ in millions)
(unaudited)
Year-to-Date
                                                 
    Personal Lines   Commercial        
                            Auto   Other   Companywide
    Agency   Direct   Total   Business   Businesses1   Total
Net Premiums Written
   $ 1,368.1     $ 806.0     $ 2,174.1     $ 330.4     $ 4.4     $ 2,508.9  
% Growth in NPW
     (3 )%     2 %     (1 )%     (1 )%   NM     (1 )%
Net Premiums Earned
   $ 1,335.3     $ 752.8     $ 2,088.1     $ 318.7     $ 4.0     $ 2,410.8  
% Growth in NPE
     (2 )%     2 %     (1 )%     4 %   NM     0 %
 
                                                
GAAP Ratios
                                                
Loss/LAE ratio
     70.8       69.5       70.4       62.6     NM     69.2  
Expense ratio
     21.1       20.6       20.9       20.0     NM     20.9  
 
                                                
Combined ratio
     91.9       90.1       91.3       82.6     NM     90.1  
 
                                                
 
                                                
Actuarial Adjustments2
                                                
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
                                                
Prior accident years
                                           $ 16.7  
Current accident year
                                             2.1  
 
                                                
Calendar year actuarial adjustment
   $ 9.9     $ 6.3     $ 16.2     $ 2.6     $ 0     $ 18.8  
 
                                                
 
                                                
Prior Accident Years Development
                                                
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
                                                
Actuarial adjustment
                                           $ 16.7  
All other development
                                             22.7  
 
                                                
Total development
                                           $ 39.4  
 
                                                
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio
                                             69.2  
 
                                                
Accident year loss/LAE ratio
                                             70.8  
 
                                                
 
                                                
Statutory Ratios
                                                
Loss/LAE ratio
                                             69.3  
Expense ratio
                                             20.2  
 
                                                
Combined ratio
                                             89.5  
 
                                                
 
                                                
Statutory Surplus
                                           $ 5,200.7  
 
                                                
NM = Not Meaningful
                         
    February   February    
Policies in Force   2007   2006   Change
(in thousands)                        
 
                        
Agency — Auto
     4,486.9       4,536.7       (1 )%
Direct — Auto
     2,475.7       2,368.7       5 %
Special Lines3
     2,888.1       2,693.1       7 %
 
                        
Total Personal Lines
     9,850.7       9,598.5       3 %
 
                        
Commercial Auto Business
     508.0       475.0       7 %
 
                        
1 The other businesses generated an underwriting profit of $1.5 million.
2 Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.
3 Includes insurance for motorcycles, recreational vehicles, mobile homes, watercraft, snowmobiles and similar items, as well as a personal umbrella product.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION
(millions — except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
         
    February
    2007
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:1
        
Investments — Available-for-sale, at fair value:
        
Fixed maturities (amortized cost: $10,096.1)
   $ 10,137.9  
Equity securities:
        
Preferred stocks (cost: $1,777.6)
     1,818.7  
Common equities (cost: $1,464.9)
     2,354.2  
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $1,107.0)
     1,107.4  
 
        
Total investments2
     15,418.2  
Net premiums receivable
     2,568.6  
Deferred acquisition costs
     448.1  
Other assets
     1,819.3  
 
        
Total assets
   $ 20,254.2  
 
        
 
        
Unearned premiums
   $ 4,431.8  
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves
     5,725.4  
Other liabilities2
     1,908.3  
Debt
     1,185.6  
Shareholders’ equity
     7,003.1  
 
        
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
   $ 20,254.2  
 
        
 
        
Common Shares outstanding
     743.1  
Shares repurchased — February
     1.6  
Average cost per share
   $ 23.52  
Book value per share
   $ 9.42  
Trailing 12-month return on average shareholders’ equity
     24.1 %
Net unrealized pretax gains on investments
   $ 972.6  
Increase (decrease) from January 2007
   $ 38.0  
Increase (decrease) from December 2006
   $ 54.4  
Debt-to-total capital ratio
     14.5 %
Fixed-income portfolio duration
   2.9 years
Weighted average credit quality
   AA
Year-to-date Gainshare factor
     .54  
1Pursuant to SFAS 113, “Accounting and Reporting for Reinsurance of Short-Duration and Long-Duration Contracts,” loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $348.2 million.
2Amounts include net unsettled security acquisitions, including repurchase commitments, of $417.3 million.

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Monthly Commentary
•   In February, approximately half of the unfavorable prior accident year “all other” development related to the settlement of several pending lawsuits against the Company, with the remainder primarily due to a higher than expected emergence of larger losses from prior years for both the private passenger auto and commercial auto products.
•   The severe weather in February, primarily in the northern part of the country, contributed to an increase in incurred losses, based on a review of our historical incurred frequency for February.
About Progressive
The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies, in business since 1937, is the country’s third largest auto insurance group and largest seller of motorcycle and personal watercraft policies based on premiums written, and is a market leader in commercial auto insurance.
     Progressive is committed to becoming consumers’ #1 choice for auto insurance by providing competitive products and rates that meet drivers’ needs throughout their lifetimes, superior online and in-person customer service, and best-in-class, 24-hour claims service, including our concierge level of claims service available at service centers throughout the United States.
     Progressive companies offer consumers choices in how to shop for, buy and manage their auto insurance policies. The Agency Business sells Progressive Drive Insurance private passenger auto insurance through more than 30,000 independent agencies. The Direct Business sells Progressive Direct® private passenger auto insurance online at www.progressive.com and by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE. Each business makes independent decisions about private passenger auto insurance product design and pricing, and both offer Progressive’s other products, such as Progressive Commercial, Progressive Motorcycle and Progressive Boat.
     The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, are publicly traded at NYSE:PGR. For more information, including a guide to interpreting the monthly reporting package, please visit www.progressive.com. Progressive and Drive are registered trademarks.
     Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Statements in this release that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions and projections generally; inflation and changes in economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing and loss reserving methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes and the timing thereof; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments; disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation pending or that may be filed against us; weather conditions (including the severity and frequency of storms, hurricanes, snowfalls, hail and winter conditions); changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems) and business functions; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Reported results, therefore, may appear to be volatile in certain accounting periods.

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