EX-99 2 l23308aexv99.htm EX-99 EX-99
 

Exhibit 99
 
  NEWS
RELEASE
 
     
The Progressive Corporation
  Company Contact:
6300 Wilson Mills Road
  Patrick Brennan
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143
  (440)395-2370
http://www.progressive.com
   
 
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO — November 15, 2006 — The Progressive Corporation today reported the following results for October 2006:
                         
    October     October        
(millions, except per share amounts and ratios)   2006     2005     Change  
Net premiums written
  $ 1,315.8     $ 1,328.1       (1 )%
Net premiums earned
    1,354.7       1,340.0       1 %
Net income
    130.1       75.4       73 %
Per share
    .17       .09       80 %
Combined ratio
    89.1       94.2     (5.1) pts.
See the “Income Statements” for further month and year-to-date information.
     Progressive offers insurance to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business units write insurance for private passenger automobiles and recreational vehicles. Our Commercial Auto business unit writes primary liability, physical damage and other auto-related insurance for automobiles and trucks owned by small businesses. See “Supplemental Information” for month and year-to-date results.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
INCOME STATEMENT
October 2006

(millions — except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
                 
    Current Month     Comments on Monthly Results1  
 
               
Direct premiums written
  $ 1,337.0          
 
             
 
               
Net premiums written
  $ 1,315.8          
 
             
 
               
Revenues:
               
Net premiums earned
  $ 1,354.7          
Investment income
    52.3          
Net realized gains (losses) on securities
    .2          
Service revenues
    2.6          
 
             
Total revenues
    1,409.8          
 
             
Expenses:
               
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
    936.2          
Policy acquisition costs
    136.4          
Other underwriting expenses
    133.9          
Investment expenses
    1.2          
Service expenses
    1.9          
Interest expense
    6.3          
 
             
Total expenses
    1,215.9          
 
             
 
               
Income before income taxes
    193.9          
Provision for income taxes
    63.8          
 
             
Net income
  $ 130.1          
 
             
 
               
COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
               
Basic:
               
Average shares outstanding
    753.8          
 
             
Per share
  $ .17          
 
             
Diluted:
               
Average shares outstanding
    753.8          
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation
    9.0          
 
             
Total equivalent shares
    762.8          
 
             
Per share
  $ .17          
 
             
1For a description of our reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2005 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2005 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.
The following table sets forth the investment results for the month:
         
Fully taxable equivalent total return:
       
Fixed-income securities
    .6 %
Common stocks
    3.3 %
Total portfolio
    1.0 %
Pretax recurring investment book yield
    4.5 %

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
INCOME STATEMENTS
October 2006 Year-to-Date

(millions — except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
                     
    Year-to-Date      
    2006     2005     % Change
 
                   
Direct premiums written
  $ 12,478.4     $ 12,334.0     1
 
               
Net premiums written
  $ 12,253.6     $ 12,083.9     1
 
               
 
                   
Revenues:
                   
Net premiums earned
  $ 11,963.9     $ 11,622.7     3
Investment income
    536.3       433.6     24
Net realized gains (losses) on securities
    (24.0 )     (4.3 )   458
Service revenues
    26.2       34.7     (24)
 
               
Total revenues
    12,502.4       12,086.7     3
 
               
Expenses:
                   
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
    7,970.9       7,879.0     1
Policy acquisition costs
    1,223.1       1,225.9     0
Other underwriting expenses
    1,176.1       1,123.1     5
Investment expenses
    10.0       10.2     (2)
Service expenses
    21.2       20.7     2
Interest expense
    64.7       69.0     (6)
 
               
Total expenses
    10,466.0       10,327.9     1
 
               
 
                   
Income before income taxes
    2,036.4       1,758.8     16
Provision for income taxes
    659.7       571.1     16
 
               
Net income
  $ 1,376.7     $ 1,187.7     16
 
               
 
                   
COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
                   
Basic:
                   
Average shares outstanding
    778.0       788.5     (1)
 
               
Per share
  $ 1.77     $ 1.51     17
 
               
Diluted:
                   
Average shares outstanding
    778.0       788.5     (1)
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation
    9.7       11.6     (16)
 
               
Total equivalent shares
    787.7       800.1     (2)
 
               
Per share
  $ 1.75     $ 1.48     18
 
               
The following table sets forth the investment results for the year-to-date period:
                 
    2006     2005  
Fully taxable equivalent total return:
               
Fixed-income securities
    5.2 %     2.3 %
Common stocks
    12.3 %     2.9 %
Total portfolio
    6.2 %     2.4 %
 
               
Pretax recurring investment book yield
    4.6 %     4.0 %

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
October 2006

($ in millions)
(unaudited)
Current Month
                                                 
    Personal Lines     Commercial              
                            Auto     Other     Companywide  
    Drive     Direct     Total     Business     Businesses1     Total  
 
                                               
Net Premiums Written
  $ 729.1     $ 404.2     $ 1,133.3     $ 180.6     $ 1.9     $ 1,315.8  
% Growth in NPW
    (2 )%     3 %     0 %     (3 )%   NM     (1 )%
Net Premiums Earned
  $ 752.1     $ 419.5     $ 1,171.6     $ 180.8     $ 2.3     $ 1,354.7  
% Growth in NPE
    (2 )%     4 %     0 %     8 %   NM     1 %
 
                                               
GAAP Ratios
                                               
Loss/LAE ratio
    70.1       69.2       69.8       65.7     NM     69.1  
Expense ratio
    20.0       20.0       20.0       19.2     NM     20.0  
 
                                   
Combined ratio
    90.1       89.2       89.8       84.9     NM     89.1  
 
                                   
 
                                               
Actuarial Adjustments2
                                               
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
                                               
Prior accident years
                                          $ 19.0  
Current accident year
                                            7.9  
 
                                             
Calendar year actuarial adjustment
  $ 12.2     $ 8.5     $ 20.7     $ 6.2     $ 0     $ 26.9  
 
                                             
 
                                               
Prior Accident Years Development
                                               
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
                                               
Actuarial adjustment
                                          $ 19.0  
All other development
                                            (5.0 )
 
                                             
Total development
                                          $ 14.0  
 
                                             
 
                                               
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio
                                            69.1  
 
                                             
Accident year loss/LAE ratio
                                            70.1  
 
                                             
 
                                               
Statutory Ratios
                                               
Loss/LAE ratio
                                            69.1  
Expense ratio
                                            19.8  
 
                                             
Combined ratio
                                            88.9  
 
                                             
NM = Not Meaningful
1Primarily includes professional liability insurance for community banks and Progressive’s run-off businesses. The other businesses generated an underwriting profit of $1.2 million for the month.
2Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
October 2006 Year-to-Date

($ in millions)
(unaudited)
Year-to-Date
                                                 
                            Commercial              
    Personal Lines     Auto     Other     Companywide  
    Drive     Direct     Total     Business     Businesses1     Total  
 
                                               
Net Premiums Written
  $ 6,804.9     $ 3,766.4     $ 10,571.3     $ 1,660.7     $ 21.6     $ 12,253.6  
% Growth in NPW
    (2 )%     5 %     1 %     7 %   NM     1 %
Net Premiums Earned
  $ 6,709.0     $ 3,669.9     $ 10,378.9     $ 1,564.0     $ 21.0     $ 11,963.9  
% Growth in NPE
    (1 )%     7 %     2 %     12 %   NM     3 %
 
                                               
GAAP Ratios
                                               
Loss/LAE ratio
    67.9       66.6       67.4       61.4     NM     66.6  
Expense ratio
    20.2       20.2       20.2       19.1     NM     20.1  
 
                                   
Combined ratio
    88.1       86.8       87.6       80.5     NM     86.7  
 
                                   
 
                                               
Actuarial Adjustments2
                                               
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
                                               
Prior accident years
                                          $ 142.0  
Current accident year
                                            41.1  
 
                                             
Calendar year actuarial adjustment
  $ 93.4     $ 46.2     $ 139.6     $ 43.3     $ .2     $ 183.1  
 
                                             
 
                                               
Prior Accident Years Development
                                               
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
                                               
Actuarial adjustment
                                          $ 142.0  
All other development
                                            113.7  
 
                                             
Total development
                                          $ 255.7  
 
                                             
 
                                               
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio
                                            66.6  
 
                                             
Accident year loss/LAE ratio
                                            68.7  
 
                                             
 
                                               
Statutory Ratios
                                               
Loss/LAE ratio
                                            66.7  
Expense ratio
                                            19.7  
 
                                             
Combined ratio
                                            86.4  
 
                                             
 
                                               
Statutory Surplus
                                          $ 5,433.4  
 
                                             
NM = Not Meaningful
                                               
                         
    October     October        
Policies in Force   2006     2005     Change  
(in thousands)                        
 
                       
Drive — Auto
    4,470       4,511       (1 )%
Direct — Auto
    2,425       2,313       5 %
Special Lines3
    2,894       2,684       8 %
 
                   
Total Personal Lines
    9,789       9,508       3 %
 
                   
Commercial Auto Business
    506       466       9 %
 
                   
1 The other businesses generated an underwriting profit of $6.3 million.
2 Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.
3 Includes insurance for motorcycles, recreational vehicles, mobile homes, watercraft, snowmobiles and similar items.

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|
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION

(millions — except per share amounts)
(unaudited)
         
    October  
    2006  
 
       
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:1
       
Investments — Available-for-sale, at market:
       
Fixed maturities (amortized cost: $10,146.6)
  $ 10,182.8  
Equity securities:
       
Preferred stocks (cost: $1,623.3)
    1,646.7  
Common equities (cost: $1,454.7)
    2,287.1  
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $1,582.4)
    1,582.9  
 
     
Total investments2
    15,699.5  
Net premiums receivable
    2,646.9  
Deferred acquisition costs
    472.9  
Other assets
    1,790.6  
 
     
Total assets
  $ 20,609.9  
 
     
 
       
Unearned premiums
  $ 4,616.3  
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves
    5,740.2  
Other liabilities2
    2,257.8  
Debt
    1,185.4  
Shareholders’ equity
    6,810.2  
 
     
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
  $ 20,609.9  
 
     
 
       
Common Shares outstanding
    758.4  
Shares repurchased — October
    4.7  
Average cost per share
  $ 24.44  
Book value per share
  $ 8.98  
Trailing 12-month return on average shareholders’ equity
    24.8 %
Net unrealized pre-tax gains on investments
  $ 892.5  
Increase (decrease) from September 2006
  $ 91.9  
Increase (decrease) from December 2005
  $ 292.4  
Debt to total capital ratio
    14.8 %
Fixed-income portfolio duration
  3.1 Years
Weighted average credit quality
  AA
Year-to-date Gainshare factor
    1.21  
1Pursuant to SFAS 113, “Accounting and Reporting for Reinsurance of Short-Duration and Long-Duration Contracts,” loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $328.7 million.
2Amounts include net unsettled security acquisitions, including repurchase commitments, of $709.5 million.

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Monthly Commentary
  The Company has no additional commentary regarding October’s results.
The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies, in business since 1937, ranks third in the nation for auto insurance based on premiums written and provides drivers with competitive rates and 24/7, in-person and online service. The products and services of the Progressive Direct Group of Insurance Companies are marketed directly to consumers online at www.progressivedirect.com and by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE through the Progressive Direct® brand. The Drive Group of Progressive Insurance Companies offers insurance through more than 30,000 independent insurance agencies that market their products and services through the Drive® Insurance from Progressive brand. For more information about Drive Insurance, go to www.driveinsurance.com. The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, are publicly traded at NYSE:PGR. More information, including a guide to interpreting the monthly reporting package, can be found at www.progressive.com.
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Statements in this release that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions and projections generally; inflation and changes in economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the accuracy and adequacy of the Company’s pricing and loss reserving methodologies; pricing competition and other initiatives by competitors; the Company’s ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes and the timing thereof; the effectiveness of the Company’s advertising campaigns; legislative and regulatory developments; disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation pending or that may be filed against the Company; weather conditions (including the severity and frequency of storms, hurricanes, snowfalls, hail and winter conditions); changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; the Company’s ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of its facilities, systems (including information technology systems) and business functions; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and other matters described from time to time by the Company in releases and publications, and in periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Reported results, therefore, may appear to be volatile in certain accounting periods.

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