Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon
120 West 45th Street, Suite 3600
New York, NY 10036
212-697-6666
For shareholder account inquiries, call the Funds' Shareholder Servicing Agent at:
800-437-1000
The telephone number for Financial Professionals is:
800-437-1020
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Tickers:
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Class A – ORTFX
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Class C – ORTCX
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Class F – ORFFX
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Class T – ORFTX
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Class Y – ORTYX
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Statement of Additional Information
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July 25, 2018
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This Statement of Additional Information (the "SAI") has been incorporated by reference into the Prospectus for the Trust dated July 25, 2018. The SAI is not a prospectus. The SAI should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus.
The Prospectus may be obtained from the Trust's Distributor, Aquila Distributors LLC
120 West 45th Street, Suite 3600, New York, NY 10036
212-697-6666
or
from the Trust's Shareholder Servicing Agent, BNY Mellon Investment Servicing (US) Inc., toll-free at:
800-437-1000
Financial Statements
The financial statements and financial highlights for the Trust (File Nos. 33-4382 and 811-04626) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018, which are contained in the Annual Report for that fiscal year filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 7, 2018 (Accession No. 0000791049-18-000016), are hereby incorporated by reference into this SAI. These financial statements have been audited by Tait, Weller & Baker LLP, independent registered public accounting firm, whose report thereon is incorporated herein by reference. The Annual Report can be obtained without charge by calling 800-437-1000 toll-free.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Trust History
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3
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Investment Objctive, Investment Strategies and Risks
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3
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Trust Policies
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12
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Management of the Trust
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15
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Ownership of Securities
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25
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Investment Advisory and Other Services
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26
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Brokerage Allocation and Other Practices
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43
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Capital Stock
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44
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Purchase, Redemption, and Pricing of Shares
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48
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Additional Tax Information
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59
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Underwriters
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65
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Appendix A: Description of Securities Ratings
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A-1
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Appendix B - Additional Information About the Oregon Economy and Oregon Obligations
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B-1
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Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon
Statement of Additional Information
Trust History
The Trust is a series of The Cascades Trust, a Massachusetts business trust (the "Business Trust"), formed in 1985 under the name Tax-Free Trust of Oregon. On August 10, 1989, the name of the Business Trust was changed to The Cascades Trust. The Business Trust presently has only one active series, the original series, Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon. The Trust is an open-end, non-diversified management investment company.
Investment Objective, Investment Strategies and Risks
The Trust's Prospectus discusses the Trust's investment objective and strategies. The following discussion supplements the description of the Trust's investment strategies in its Prospectus.
Investment Objective
The Trust's objective is to provide you as high a level of current income exempt from Oregon state and regular Federal income taxes as is consistent with preservation of capital.
Principal Investment Strategies
Under normal circumstances, at least 80% of the Trust's net assets will be invested in municipal obligations that pay interest exempt, in the opinion of bond counsel, from Oregon state and regular Federal income taxes, the income paid upon which will not be subject to the Federal alternative minimum tax on individuals.
Supplemental Information Regarding Principal Investment Strategies
The following provides additional information about the Trust's principal investment strategies and risks and the securities in which the Trust may invest.
Percentage Limitations
The Trust's compliance with its investment limitations and requirements is determined at the time of investment unless otherwise stated herein or in the Trust's policies and procedures. If a percentage limitation is complied with at the time of an investment, any subsequent change in percentage resulting from a change in values or assets, or a change in credit quality, will not constitute a violation of that limitation.
Ratings
The ratings assigned by Moody's Investors Service, Inc. ("Moody's"), Standard & Poor's ("S&P") and Fitch Ratings ("Fitch"), nationally recognized statistical rating organizations, represent their respective opinions of the quality of the municipal bonds and notes which they undertake to rate. It should be emphasized, however, that ratings are general and not absolute standards of quality. Consequently, obligations with the same maturity, stated interest rate and rating may have different yields, while obligations of the same maturity and stated interest rate with different ratings may have the same yield.
Rating agencies consider municipal obligations that have only the fourth highest credit rating to be of medium quality. Thus, they may present investment risks which do not exist with more highly rated obligations. Such obligations possess less attractive investment characteristics. Changes in economic conditions or other circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity to make principal and interest payments than is the case for higher-grade bonds.
Credit rating or credit quality of a security is determined at the time of purchase. If, after purchase, the credit rating on a security is downgraded or the credit quality deteriorates, or if the duration of a security is extended, the Trust's investment adviser will decide whether the security should continue to be held or sold.
See Appendix A to this SAI for further information about the ratings of these organizations that apply to the various rated Oregon Obligations which the Trust may purchase.
Additional Information About the Oregon Economy
The Trust intends to invest a high proportion of its assets in Oregon municipal obligations. Payment of interest and preservation of principal is dependent upon the continuing ability of Oregon issuers and/or obligors of state, municipal and public authority debt obligations to meet their obligations thereunder. Information concerning certain factors affecting the economy of the State of Oregon is set forth in Appendix B to this SAI.
There can be no assurance that current or future economic difficulties in the United States or Oregon and the resulting impact on the State will not adversely affect the market value of Oregon municipal obligations held by the Trust or the ability of particular issuers to make timely payments of debt service on these obligations. It should also be noted that the fiscal condition and creditworthiness of the State may not have a direct relationship to the fiscal condition or creditworthiness of other issuers or obligors of Oregon municipal obligations. There is no obligation on the part of the State to make payments on those securities in the event of default.
Municipal Bonds
The two principal classifications of municipal bonds are "general obligation" bonds and "revenue" bonds. General obligation bonds are secured by the issuer's pledge of its full faith, credit and taxing power for the payment of principal and interest. Revenue or special tax bonds are payable only from the revenues derived from a particular facility or class of facilities or projects or, in a few cases, from the proceeds of a special excise or other tax, but are not supported by the issuer's full taxing power. There are, of course, variations in the security of municipal bonds, both within a particular classification and between classifications, depending on numerous factors. The yields of municipal bonds depend on, among other things, general financial conditions, general conditions of the municipal bond market, the size of a particular offering, the maturity of the obligation and the rating of the issue.
Since the Trust may invest in industrial development bonds or private activity bonds, the Trust may not be an appropriate investment for entities that are "substantial users" of facilities financed by those bonds or for investors who are "related persons" of such users. Generally, an individual will not be a "related person" under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the "Code") unless such investor or his or her immediate family (spouse, brothers, sisters and lineal descendants) owns directly or indirectly in the aggregate more than 50 percent of the equity of a corporation or is a partner of a partnership which is a "substantial user" of a facility financed from the proceeds of those bonds. A
"substantial user" of such facilities is defined generally as a "non-exempt person who regularly uses a part of a facility" financed from the proceeds of industrial development or private activity bonds.
As indicated in the Prospectus, there are certain Oregon Obligations the interest on which is subject to the Federal alternative minimum tax on individuals. While the Trust may purchase these obligations, it may, on the other hand, refrain from purchasing particular Oregon Obligations due to this tax consequence. Also, as indicated in the Prospectus, the Trust will not purchase obligations of Oregon issuers the interest on which is subject to regular Federal income tax. The foregoing may reduce the number of issuers of obligations that are available to the Trust.
Municipal Downgrades and Bankruptcies. Municipal bonds may be more susceptible to being downgraded, and issuers of municipal bonds may be more susceptible to default and bankruptcy, during recessions or similar periods of economic stress. Factors contributing to the economic stress on municipalities may include lower property tax collections as a result of lower home values, lower sales tax revenue as a result of consumers cutting back from spending, and lower income tax revenue as a result of a high unemployment rate. In addition, as certain municipal obligations may be secured or guaranteed by banks and other institutions, the risk to a fund could increase if the banking or financial sector suffers an economic downturn and/or if the credit ratings of the institutions issuing the guarantee are downgraded or at risk of being downgraded by a national rating organization. Such a downward revision or risk of being downgraded may have an adverse effect on the market prices of the bonds and thus the value of a fund's investments.
Certain municipal issuers either have been unable to issue bonds or access the market to sell their issues or, if able to access the market, have issued bonds at much higher rates, which may reduce revenues available for municipal issuers to pay existing obligations. Should the State or municipalities fail to sell bonds when and at the rates projected; the State could experience significantly increased costs in the General Fund and a weakened overall cash position in the current fiscal year.
Further, an insolvent municipality may file for bankruptcy. For example, Chapter 9 of Title 11 of the United States Code (the "Bankruptcy Code") provides provides a financially distressed municipality protection from its creditors while it develops and negotiates a plan for reorganizing its debts. "Municipality" is defined broadly by the Bankruptcy Code as a "political subdivision or public agency or instrumentality of a state" and may include various issuers of securities in which the fund invests. The reorganization of a municipality's debts may be accomplished by extending debt maturities, reducing the amount of principal or interest, refinancing the debt or other measures which may significantly affect the rights of creditors and the value of the securities issued by the municipality and the value of a fund's investments.
When-Issued and Delayed Delivery Obligations
The Trust may buy Oregon Obligations on a when-issued or delayed delivery basis. The purchase price and the interest rate payable on the Oregon Obligations are fixed on the transaction date. At the time the Trust makes the commitment to purchase Oregon Obligations on a when-issued or delayed delivery basis, it will record the transaction and thereafter reflect the value each day of such Oregon Obligations in determining its net asset value. The Trust will make commitments for such when-issued transactions only when it has the intention of actually acquiring the Oregon Obligations.
Zero Coupon Securities
The Trust may invest in zero coupon securities. Zero coupon bonds are issued and traded at a discount from their face value. They do not entitle the holder to any periodic payment of interest prior to maturity.
The income-producing securities that the Trust might invest in include securities that make periodic interest payments as well as those that make interest payments on a deferred basis or pay interest only at maturity (e.g., Treasury bills or zero coupon bonds).
Current Federal income tax law requires holders of zero coupon securities to report the portion of the original issue discount on such securities that accrues during a given year as interest income, even though the holders receive no cash payments of interest during the year. In order to qualify for treatment as a "regulated investment company" under the Code, the Trust must generally distribute substantially all of its net income, including the original issue discount accrued on zero coupon bonds. Because the Trust would not receive cash payments on a current basis in respect of accrued original-issue discount on zero coupon bonds during the period before interest payments begin, in some years the Trust might have to distribute cash obtained from other sources in order to satisfy the distribution requirements under the Code. The Trust might obtain such cash from selling other portfolio holdings which might cause the Trust to incur capital gains or losses on the sale. Additionally, these actions would be likely to reduce the assets to which Trust expenses could be allocated and may reduce the rate of return for the Trust. In some circumstances, such sales might be necessary in order to satisfy cash distribution requirements even though investment considerations might otherwise make it undesirable for the Trust to sell the securities at the time.
Generally, the market prices of zero coupon securities are more volatile than the prices of securities that pay interest periodically and in cash and are likely to respond to changes in interest rates to a greater degree than other types of debt securities having similar maturities and credit quality.
Futures Contracts and Options
The Trust is permitted to buy and sell futures contracts relating to municipal security indices ("Municipal Security Index Futures") and to U.S. Government securities ("U.S. Government Securities Futures," together referred to as "Futures"), and exchange-traded options based on Futures as a possible means of protecting the asset value of the Trust during periods of changing interest rates. The following discussion is intended to explain briefly the workings of Futures and options on them.
Unlike when the Trust purchases or sells an Oregon Obligation, no price is paid or received by the Trust upon the purchase or sale of a Future. Initially, however, when such transactions are entered into, the Trust will be required to deposit with the futures commission merchant ("broker") an amount of cash or Oregon Obligations equal to a varying specified percentage of the contract amount. This amount is known as initial margin. Subsequent payments, called variation margin, to and from the broker, will be made on a daily basis as the price of the underlying index or security fluctuates making the Future more or less valuable, a process known as marking to market. Insolvency of the broker may make it more difficult to recover initial or variation margin. Changes in variation margin are recorded by the Trust as unrealized gains or losses. Margin deposits do not involve borrowing by the Trust and may not be used to support any other transactions. At any time prior to expiration of the Future, the Trust may elect to close the position by taking an opposite position which will operate to terminate the Trust's position in the Future. A final determination of variation margin is then made. Additional cash is required to be paid by or released to the Trust and it realizes a gain or a loss. Although Futures by their terms call for the actual delivery or acceptance of cash, in most cases the contractual obligation is fulfilled without having to make or take delivery. All transactions in the futures markets are subject to commissions payable by the Trust
and are made, offset or fulfilled through a clearing house associated with the exchange on which the contracts are traded. Although the Trust intends to buy and sell Futures only on an exchange where there appears to be an active secondary market, there is no assurance that a liquid secondary market will exist for any particular Future at any particular time. In such event, or in the event of an equipment failure at a clearing house, it may not be possible to close a futures position.
Municipal Security Index Futures are futures contracts based on an index of municipal bonds. Daily values are assigned to the bonds included in the index based on the independent assessment of a pricing service, and the value of the index fluctuates with changes in those constituent values. The two parties to the contract agree to take or make delivery of a cash amount based on the difference between the value of the index on the last trading day of the contract and the price at which the contract was originally struck.
There are as of the date of this Statement of Additional Information U.S. Government Securities Futures contracts based on long-term Treasury bonds, Treasury notes, GNMA Certificates and three-month Treasury bills. U.S. Government Securities Futures have traded longer than Municipal Security Index Futures, and the depth and liquidity available in the trading markets for them are in general greater.
Call Options on Futures Contracts. The Trust may also purchase and sell exchange-traded call and put options on Futures. The purchase of a call option on a Future is analogous to the purchase of a call option on an individual security. Depending on the pricing of the option compared to either the Future upon which it is based, or upon the price of the underlying debt securities, it may or may not be less risky than ownership of the futures contract or underlying debt securities. Like the purchase of a futures contract, the Trust may purchase a call option on a Future to hedge against a market advance when the Trust is not fully invested.
The writing of a call option on a Future constitutes a partial hedge against declining prices of the securities which are deliverable upon exercise of the Future. If the price at expiration of the Future is below the exercise price, the Trust will retain the full amount of the option premium which provides a partial hedge against any decline that may have occurred in the Trust's portfolio holdings.
Put Options on Futures Contracts. The purchase of put options on a Future is analogous to the purchase of protective put options on portfolio securities. The Trust may purchase a put option on a Future to hedge the Trust's portfolio against the risk of rising interest rates.
The writing of a put option on a Future constitutes a partial hedge against increasing prices of the securities which are deliverable upon exercise of the Future. If the Future price at expiration is higher than the exercise price, the Trust will retain the full amount of the option premium which provides a partial hedge against any increase in the price of securities which the Trust intends to purchase.
The writer of an option on a Future is required to deposit initial and variation margin pursuant to requirements similar to those applicable to Futures. Premiums received from the writing of an option will be included in initial margin. The writing of an option on a Future involves risks similar to those relating to Futures.
Risk Factors in Futures Transactions and Options
One risk in employing Futures or options on Futures to attempt to protect against the price volatility of the Trust's Oregon Obligations is that the Sub-Adviser could be incorrect in its expectations as to the extent of various interest rate movements or the time span within which the movements take place. For example, if the Trust sold a Future in anticipation of an increase in interest rates, and then interest rates went down instead, the Trust would lose money on the sale.
Another risk as to Futures or options on them arises because of the imperfect correlation between movement in the price of the Future and movements in the prices of the Oregon Obligations which are the subject of the hedge. The risk of imperfect correlation increases as the composition of the Trust's portfolio diverges from the municipal securities included in the applicable index or from the securities underlying the U.S. Government Securities Futures. The price of the Future or option may move more than or less than the price of the Oregon Obligations being hedged. If the price of the Future or option moves less than the price of the Oregon Obligations which are the subject of the hedge, the hedge will not be fully effective but, if the price of the Oregon Obligations being hedged has moved in an unfavorable direction, the Trust would be in a better position than if it had not hedged at all. If the price of the Oregon Obligations being hedged has moved in a favorable direction, this advantage will be offset by the Future or option. If the price of the Future or option has moved more than the price of the Oregon Obligations, the Trust will experience either a loss or gain on the Future or option which will not be completely offset by movements in the price of the Oregon Obligations which are the subject of the hedge. To compensate for the imperfect correlation of movements in the price of the Oregon Obligations being hedged and movements in the price of the Futures or options, the Trust may buy or sell Futures or options in a greater dollar amount than the dollar amount of the Oregon Obligations being hedged if the historical volatility of the prices of the Oregon Obligations being hedged is less than the historical volatility of the debt securities underlying the hedge. It is also possible that, where the Trust has sold Futures or options to hedge its portfolio against decline in the market, the market may advance and the value of the Oregon Obligations held in the Trust's portfolio may decline. If this occurred the Trust would lose money on the Future or option and also experience a decline in value of its portfolio securities.
Where Futures or options are purchased to hedge against a possible increase in the price of Oregon Obligations before the Trust is able to invest in them in an orderly fashion, it is possible that the market may decline instead; if the Trust then decides not to invest in the Oregon Obligations at that time because of concern as to possible further market decline or for other reasons, the Trust will realize a loss on the Futures or options that is not offset by a reduction in the price of the Oregon Obligations which it had anticipated purchasing.
The particular municipal securities comprising the index underlying Municipal Security Index Futures will vary from the bonds held by the Trust. The correlation of the hedge with such bonds may be affected by disparities in the average maturity, ratings, geographical mix or structure of the Trust's investments as compared to those comprising the Index, and general economic or political factors. In addition, the correlation between movements in the value of the Municipal Security Index may be subject to change over time, as additions to and deletions from the Municipal Security Index alter its structure. The correlation between U.S. Government Securities Futures and the municipal bonds held by the Trust may be adversely affected by similar factors and the risk of imperfect correlation between movements in the prices of such Futures and the prices of municipal obligations held by the Trust may be greater.
Trading in Municipal Security Index Futures may be less liquid than trading in other Futures. The trading of Futures and options is also subject to certain market risks, such as inadequate trading activity or limits on upward or downward price movements which could at times make it difficult or impossible to liquidate existing positions.
Regulatory Aspects of Futures and Options
In connection with futures and options transactions, the Trust will segregate cash or liquid assets in an amount required to comply with the 1940 Act. Such segregated assets will be valued at market daily. If the aggregate value of such segregated assets declines below the aggregate value required to satisfy the 1940 Act requirements, additional liquid assets will be segregated. In some instances, the Trust may "cover" its obligations using other methods permitted under the 1940 Act, orders or releases issued by the SEC thereunder, or no-action letters or other guidance of the SEC staff.
The "sale" of a Future means the acquisition by the Trust of an obligation to deliver an amount of cash equal to a specified dollar amount times the difference between the value of the index or government security at the close of the last trading day of the Future and the price at which the Future is originally struck (which the Trust anticipates will be lower because of a subsequent rise in interest rates and a corresponding decline in the index value). This is referred to as having a "short" Futures position. The "purchase" of a Future means the acquisition by the Trust of a right to take delivery of such an amount of cash. In this case, the Trust anticipates that the closing value will be higher than the price at which the Future is originally struck. This is referred to as having a "long" futures position. No physical delivery of the bonds making up the index or the U.S. government securities, as the case may be, is made as to either a long or a short futures position.
Europe - Recent Events
A number of countries in Europe have experienced severe economic and financial difficulties. Many non-governmental issuers, and even certain governments, have defaulted on, or been forced to restructure, their debts; many other issuers have faced difficulties obtaining credit or refinancing existing obligations; financial institutions have in many cases required government or central bank support, have needed to raise capital, and/or have been impaired in their ability to extend credit; and financial markets in Europe and elsewhere have experienced extreme volatility and declines in asset values and liquidity. These difficulties may continue, worsen or spread within and without Europe. Responses to the financial problems by European governments, central banks and others, including austerity measures and reforms, may not work, may result in social unrest and may limit future growth and economic recovery or have other unintended consequences. Further defaults or restructurings by governments and others of their debt could have additional adverse effects on economies, financial markets and asset valuations around the world. In addition, on June 23, 2016, voters in the United Kingdom have approved withdrawal from the European Union. On March 29, 2017, the United Kingdom formally notified the European Council of its intention to leave the European Union; as a result, the United Kingdom will remain a member state, subject to European Union law with privileges to provide services under the single market directives, for at least two years from that date. Given the size and importance of the United Kingdom's economy, uncertainty about its legal, political, and economic relationship with the remaining member states of the European Union may continue to be a source of instability. Moreover, other countries may also seek to withdraw from the European Union and/or abandon the euro, the common currency of the European Union. A number of countries in Europe have suffered terror attacks, and additional attacks may occur in the future. Ukraine has experienced ongoing military conflict; this conflict may expand and military conflicts could occur elsewhere in Europe. Europe has also been struggling with mass migration from the Middle East and Africa. The ultimate effects of these events and other socio-political or geopolitical issues are not known but could profoundly affect global economies and markets. Even though the Trust does not invest in securities of issuers located in Europe or with significant exposure to European issuers or countries, these events could negatively affect the value and liquidity of the Trust's investments due to the interconnected nature of the global economy and capital markets.The Trust may be susceptible to these events to the extent that the Trust invests in municipal obligations with credit support by non-U.S. financial institutions.
Supplemental Information Regarding Other Investment Strategies and Practices
The following provides additional information about other investment strategies and practices that the Trust may use.
Cash Management and Defensive Investing
Cash Management. The Trust may invest its assets in money market funds, any type of taxable money market instrument and short-term debt securities, or may hold cash uninvested.
Defensive Investing. The Trust may depart from its principal investment strategies in response to adverse market, economic or political conditions by taking temporary defensive positions and investing in shares of money market funds, any type of taxable money market instrument and short-term debt securities or holding cash uninvested without regard to any percentage limitations. Although the Trust has the ability to take defensive positions, the Trust's Manager may choose not to do so for a variety of reasons, even during volatile market conditions.
Money market instruments or short-term debt securities held by the Trust for cash management or defensive investing purposes can fluctuate in value. Like other fixed income securities, they are subject to risk, including market, interest rate and credit risk. If the Trust holds cash uninvested, it will be subject to the credit risk of the depository institution holding the cash. In addition, the Trust will not earn income on the cash and the Trust's yield will go down. If a significant amount of the Trust's assets are used for cash management or defensive investing purposes, it will be more difficult for the Trust to achieve its investment objective.
Supplemental Information Regarding Other Risks
Cybersecurity Issues
With the increased use of technologies such as the Internet to conduct business, the Trust is susceptible to operational, information security and related risks. In general, cyber incidents can result from deliberate attacks or unintentional events. Cyber attacks include, but are not limited to, attempts to gain unauthorized access to digital systems (e.g., through "hacking" or malicious software coding) for purposes of misappropriating assets or sensitive information, corrupting data, denying access, or causing other operational disruption. Cyber attacks may also be carried out in a manner that does not require gaining unauthorized access, such as causing denial-of-service attacks on websites (i.e., efforts to make network services unavailable to intended users). The Trust's service providers regularly experience such attempts, and expect they will continue to do so. The Trust is unable to predict how any such attempt, if successful, may affect the Trust and its shareholders. While the Trust's service providers have established business continuity plans in the event of, and risk management systems to prevent, limit or mitigate, such cyber attacks, there are inherent limitations in such plans and systems including the possibility that certain risks have not been identified. Furthermore, the Trust cannot control the cybersecurity plans and systems put in place by service providers to the Trust such as the Sub-Adviser, The Bank of New York Mellon, the Trust's Custodian, and BNY Mellon Investment Servicing (US) Inc., the Trust's Shareholder Servicing Agent. In addition, many beneficial owners of Trust shares hold them through accounts at broker-dealers, retirement platforms and other financial market participants over which neither the Trust nor the Adviser exercises control. Each of these may in turn rely on service providers to them, which are also subject to the risk of cyber attacks. Cybersecurity failures or breaches at the Manager or the Trust's service providers or intermediaries have the ability to cause disruptions and impact business operations potentially resulting in financial losses, interference with the Trust's ability to calculate its net asset value ("NAV"), impediments to trading, the inability of Trust shareholders to effect share purchases, redemptions or exchanges or receive distributions, loss of or unauthorized access to
private shareholder information and violations of applicable privacy and other laws, regulatory fines, penalties, reputational damage, or additional compliance costs. Such costs and losses may not be covered under any insurance. In addition, maintaining vigilance against cyber attacks may involve substantial costs over time, and system enhancements may themselves be subject to cyber attacks.
Interfund Lending
To satisfy redemption requests or to cover unanticipated cash shortfalls, the Trust may enter into lending agreements ("Interfund Lending Agreements") under which the Trust would lend money and borrow money for temporary purposes directly to and from another fund in the Aquila Group of Funds through a credit facility ("Interfund Loan"), subject to meeting the conditions of an SEC exemptive order granted to the Trust permitting such interfund lending. All Interfund Loans will consist only of uninvested cash reserves that the Trust otherwise would invest in short-term repurchase agreements or other short-term instruments.
If the Trust has outstanding borrowings, any Interfund Loans to the Trust (a) will be at an interest rate equal to or lower than any outstanding bank loan, (b) will be secured at least on an equal priority basis with at least an equivalent percentage of collateral to loan value as any outstanding bank loan that requires collateral, (c) will have a maturity no longer than any outstanding bank loan (and in any event not over seven days) and (d) will provide that, if an event of default occurs under any agreement evidencing an outstanding bank loan to the Trust, the event of default will automatically (without need for action or notice by the lending fund) constitute an immediate event of default under the Interfund Lending Agreement entitling the lending fund to call the Interfund Loan (and exercise all rights with respect to any collateral) and that such call will be made if the lending bank exercises its right to call its loan under its agreement with the borrowing fund.
The Trust may make an unsecured borrowing through the credit facility if its outstanding borrowings from all sources immediately after the interfund borrowing total 10% or less of its total assets; provided, that if the Trust has a secured loan outstanding from any other lender, including but not limited to another fund in the Aquila Group of Funds, the Trust's interfund borrowing will be secured on at least an equal priority basis with at least an equivalent percentage of collateral to loan value as any outstanding loan that requires collateral. If the Trust's total outstanding borrowings immediately after an interfund borrowing would be greater than 10% of its total assets, the Trust may borrow through the credit facility on a secured basis only. The Trust may not borrow through the credit facility nor from any other source if its total outstanding borrowings immediately after the interfund borrowing would be more than 33 1∕3% of its total assets.
No fund may lend to another fund through the interfund lending credit facility if the loan would cause its aggregate outstanding loans through the credit facility to exceed 15% of the lending fund's net assets at the time of the loan. A fund's Interfund Loans to any one fund shall not exceed 5% of the lending fund's net assets. The duration of Interfund Loans is limited to the time required to receive payment for securities sold, but in no event more than seven days. Loans effected within seven days of each other will be treated as separate loan transactions for purposes of this condition. Each Interfund Loan may be called on one business day's notice by a lending fund and may be repaid on any day by a borrowing fund.
The limitations detailed above and the other conditions of the SEC exemptive order permitting interfund lending are designed to minimize the risks associated with interfund lending for both the lending fund and the borrowing fund. However, no borrowing or lending activity is without risk. When a fund borrows money from another fund, there is a risk that the loan could be called on one day's notice or not renewed, in which case the fund may have to borrow from a bank at higher rates if an Interfund Loan were not available from another fund. A delay in repayment to a lending fund could result in a lost opportunity or additional lending costs.
Trust Policies
Investment Restrictions
The Trust has adopted certain fundamental investment policies which, along with the Trust's investment objective, may not be changed without the affirmative vote of the holders of a "majority of the outstanding voting securities" (as defined in the 1940 Act) of the Trust. For this purpose, a majority of the outstanding shares of the Trust means the vote of the lesser of (a) 67% or more of the dollar value of the Trust's shares present at a meeting or represented by proxy if the holders of more than 50% of the dollar value of its shares are so present or represented; or (b) more than 50% of the dollar value of the Trust's outstanding shares. The Board may change non-fundamental investment policies at any time. The Trust's fundamental policies are set forth below:
(1) |
The Trust may not borrow money except as permitted by the 1940 Act.
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(2) |
The Trust may not engage in the business of underwriting the securities of other issuers except as permitted by the 1940 Act.
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(3) |
The Trust may lend money or other assets to the extent permitted by the 1940 Act.
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(4) |
The Trust may not issue senior securities except as permitted by the 1940 Act.
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(5) |
The Trust may not purchase or sell real estate except as permitted by the 1940 Act.
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(6) |
The Trust may purchase or sell commodities or contracts related to commodities to the extent permitted by the 1940 Act.
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(7) |
Except as permitted by exemptive or other relief or permission from the SEC, SEC staff or other authority of competent jurisdiction, the Trust may not make any investment if, as a result, the Trust's investments will be concentrated in any one industry.
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(8) |
At least 80% of the Trust's net assets will be invested in municipal obligations that pay interest exempt in the opinion of bond counsel from Oregon state and regular Federal income taxes, the income paid upon which will not be subject to the Federal alternative minimum tax on individuals.
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With respect to the fundamental policy relating to borrowing money set forth in (1) above, the 1940 Act permits a fund to borrow money in amounts of up to one-third of the fund's total assets from banks for any purpose, and to borrow up to 5% of the fund's total assets from banks or other lenders for temporary purposes (the fund's total assets include the amounts being borrowed). To limit the risks attendant to borrowing, the 1940 Act requires a fund to maintain at all times an "asset coverage" of at least 300% of the amount of its borrowings. Asset coverage means the ratio that the value of the fund's total assets (including amounts borrowed), minus liabilities other than borrowings, bears to the aggregate amount of all borrowings. Borrowing money to increase a fund's investment portfolio is known as "leveraging." Borrowing, especially when used for leverage, may cause the value of a fund's shares to be more volatile than if the fund did not borrow. This is because borrowing tends to magnify the effect of any increase or decrease in the value of the fund's portfolio holdings. Borrowed money thus creates an opportunity for greater gains, but also greater losses. To repay borrowings, a fund may have to sell securities at a time and at a price that is unfavorable to the fund. There also are costs associated with borrowing money, and these costs would offset and could eliminate a fund's net investment income in
any given period. Currently, the Trust does not contemplate borrowing for leverage, but if the Trust does so, it will not likely do so to a substantial degree. The policy in (1) above will be interpreted to permit the Trust to engage in trading practices and investments that may be considered to be borrowing to the extent permitted by the 1940 Act. Reverse repurchase agreements may be considered to be a type of borrowing. Short-term credits necessary for the settlement of securities transactions and arrangements with respect to securities lending will not be considered to be borrowings under the policy. Practices and investments that may involve leverage but are not considered to be borrowings are not subject to the policy. Such trading practices may include futures, options on futures, forward contracts and other derivative investments.
The Trust may pledge its assets and guarantee the securities of another company without limitation, subject to the Trust's investment policies (including the Trust's fundamental policy regarding borrowing) and applicable laws and interpretations. Pledges of assets and guarantees of obligations of others are subject to many of the same risks associated with borrowings and, in addition, are subject to the credit risk of the obligor for the underlying obligations. To the extent that pledging or guaranteeing assets may be considered the issuance of senior securities, the issuance of senior securities is governed by the Trust's policies on senior securities. If the Trust were to pledge its assets, the Trust would take into account any then-applicable legal guidance, including any applicable SEC staff position, would be guided by the judgment of the Trust's Board, Adviser and Administrator regarding the terms of any credit facility or arrangement, including any collateral required, and would not pledge more collateral than, in their judgment, is necessary for the Trust to obtain the credit sought. Shareholders should note that in 1973, the SEC staff took the position in a no-action letter that a mutual fund could not pledge 100% of its assets without a compelling business reason. In more recent no-action letters, including letters that address the same statutory provision of the 1940 Act (Section 17) addressed in the 1973 letter, the SEC staff has not mentioned any limitation on the amount of collateral that may be pledged to support credit obtained. This does not mean that the staff's position on this issue has changed.
With respect to the fundamental policy relating to underwriting set forth in (2) above, the 1940 Act does not prohibit a fund from engaging in the underwriting business or from underwriting the securities of other issuers; in fact, the 1940 Act permits a fund to have underwriting commitments of up to 25% of its assets under certain circumstances. Those circumstances currently are that the amount of the fund's underwriting commitments, when added to the value of the fund's investments in issuers where the fund owns more than 10% of the outstanding voting securities of those issuers, cannot exceed the 25% cap. A fund engaging in transactions involving the acquisition or disposition of portfolio securities may be considered to be an underwriter under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "1933 Act"). Under the 1933 Act, an underwriter may be liable for material omissions or misstatements in an issuer's registration statement or prospectus. Securities purchased from an issuer and not registered for sale under the 1933 Act are considered restricted securities. There may be a limited market for these securities. If these securities are registered under the 1933 Act, they may then be eligible for sale but participating in the sale may subject the seller to underwriter liability. These risks could apply to a fund investing in restricted securities. Although it is not believed that the application of the 1933 Act provisions described above would cause a fund to be engaged in the business of underwriting, the policy in (2) above will be interpreted not to prevent the Trust from engaging in transactions involving the acquisition or disposition of portfolio securities, regardless of whether the Trust may be considered to be an underwriter under the 1933 Act.
With respect to the fundamental policy relating to lending set forth in (3) above, the 1940 Act does not prohibit a fund from making loans; however, SEC staff interpretations currently prohibit funds from lending more than one-third of their total assets, except through the purchase of debt obligations or the use of repurchase agreements. (A repurchase agreement is an agreement to purchase a security, coupled with an agreement to sell that security back to the original seller on an agreed-upon date at a price that reflects current interest rates. The SEC frequently treats repurchase agreements as loans.) While
lending securities may be a source of income to a fund, as with other extensions of credit, there are risks of delay in recovery or even loss of rights in the underlying securities should the borrower fail financially. However, loans would be made only when the Adviser believes that the income justifies the attendant risks. The Trust also will be permitted by this policy to make loans of money, including to other funds. The policy in (3) above will be interpreted not to prevent the Trust from purchasing or investing in debt obligations and loans. In addition, collateral arrangements with respect to options, forward currency and futures transactions and other derivative instruments, as well as delays in the settlement of securities transactions, will not be considered loans.
With respect to the fundamental policy relating to issuing senior securities set forth in (4) above, "senior securities" are defined as Trust obligations that have a priority over the Trust's shares with respect to the payment of dividends or the distribution of Trust assets. The 1940 Act prohibits a fund from issuing senior securities except that a fund may borrow money in amounts of up to one-third of the fund's total assets from banks for any purpose. A fund also may borrow up to 5% of the fund's total assets from banks or other lenders for temporary purposes, and these borrowings are not considered senior securities. The issuance of senior securities by a fund can increase the speculative character of the fund's outstanding shares through leveraging. Leveraging of a fund's portfolio through the issuance of senior securities magnifies the potential for gain or loss on monies, because even though the fund's net assets remain the same, the total risk to investors is increased. Certain widely used investment practices that involve a commitment by a fund to deliver money or securities in the future are not considered by the SEC to be senior securities, provided that a fund segregates cash or liquid securities in an amount necessary to pay the obligation or the fund holds an offsetting commitment from another party. These investment practices include repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements, swaps, dollar rolls, options, futures and forward contracts. The policy in (4) above will be interpreted not to prevent collateral arrangements with respect to swaps, options, forward or futures contracts or other derivatives, or the posting of initial or variation margin.
With respect to the fundamental policy relating to real estate set forth in (5) above, the 1940 Act does not prohibit a fund from owning real estate; however, a fund is limited in the amount of illiquid assets it may purchase. Investing in real estate may involve risks, including that real estate is generally considered illiquid and may be difficult to value and sell. Owners of real estate may be subject to various liabilities, including environmental liabilities. To the extent that investments in real estate are considered illiquid, the current SEC staff position generally limits a fund's purchases of illiquid securities to 15% of net assets. The policy in (5) above will be interpreted not to prevent the Trust from investing in real estate-related companies, companies whose businesses consist in whole or in part of investing in real estate, instruments (like mortgages) that are secured by real estate or interests therein, or real estate investment trust securities.
With respect to the fundamental policy relating to commodities set forth in (6) above, the 1940 Act does not prohibit a fund from owning commodities, whether physical commodities and contracts related to physical commodities (such as oil or grains and related futures contracts), or financial commodities and contracts related to financial commodities (such as currencies and, possibly, currency futures). However, a fund is limited in the amount of illiquid assets it may purchase. To the extent that investments in commodities are considered illiquid, the current SEC staff position generally limits a fund's purchases of illiquid securities to 15% of net assets. If a fund were to invest in a physical commodity or a physical commodity-related instrument, the fund would be subject to the additional risks of the particular physical commodity and its related market. The value of commodities and commodity-related instruments may be extremely volatile and may be affected either directly or indirectly by a variety of factors. There also may be storage charges and risks of loss associated with physical commodities. The policy in (6) above will be interpreted to permit investments in exchange traded funds that invest in physical and/or financial commodities.
With respect to the fundamental policy relating to concentration set forth in (7) above, the 1940 Act does not define what constitutes "concentration" in an industry. The SEC has taken the position that investment of 25% or more of a fund's total assets in one or more issuers conducting their principal activities in the same industry or group of industries constitutes concentration. It is possible that interpretations of concentration could change in the future. A fund that invests a significant percentage of its total assets in a single industry may be particularly susceptible to adverse events affecting that industry and may be more risky than a fund that does not concentrate in an industry. The policy in (7) above will be interpreted to refer to concentration as that term may be interpreted from time to time. The policy also will be interpreted to permit investment without limit in the following: securities of the U.S. government and its agencies or instrumentalities; tax-exempt securities of state, territory, possession or municipal governments and their authorities, agencies, instrumentalities or political subdivisions; and repurchase agreements collateralized by any such obligations. Accordingly, issuers of the foregoing securities will not be considered to be members of any industry. The Trust characterizes investments in securities the interest upon which is paid from revenues of similar type projects by the type or types of projects. The Trust may invest more than 25% of its assets in industrial development bonds under the policy. In the case of an industrial development bond, if the bond is backed only by assets and revenues of a non-governmental user, then the non-governmental user would be deemed to be the sole issuer and such issuer would be subject to the 25% limit. The policy also will be interpreted to give broad authority to the Trust as to how to classify issuers within or among industries. When identifying industries for purposes of its concentration policy, the Trust may rely upon available industry classifications.
The Trust's fundamental policies are written and will be interpreted broadly. For example, the policies will be interpreted to refer to the 1940 Act and the related rules as they are in effect from time to time, and to interpretations and modifications of or relating to the 1940 Act by the SEC and others as they are given from time to time. When a policy provides that an investment practice may be conducted as permitted by the 1940 Act, the policy will be interpreted to mean either that the 1940 Act expressly permits the practice or that the 1940 Act does not prohibit the practice.
Management of the Trust
The Board of Trustees
The business and affairs of the Trust are managed under the direction and control of its Board of Trustees. The Board of Trustees has authority over every aspect of the Trust's operations, including approval of the advisory and any sub-advisory agreement and their annual renewal, contracts with all other service providers and payments under the Trust's Distribution Plan and Shareholder Services Plan.
The Trust has a standing Audit Committee, consisting of all of the Trustees who are "independent" and are not "interested persons" of the Trust. The Committee determines what independent registered public accounting firm will be selected by the Board of Trustees, reviews the methods, scope and result of audits and the fees charged, and reviews the adequacy of the Trust's internal accounting procedures and controls. The Audit Committee held two meetings during the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018.
The Trust has a Nominating Committee, consisting of all of the non-interested Trustees. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018, the Nominating Committee did not hold any meetings. The committee will consider nominees recommended by the shareholders who may send recommendations to the Trust at its principal address for the attention of the Chair of the Nominating Committee.
The Trust has a Governance Committee, consisting of James A. Gardner (ex-officio), Henry H. Hewitt, Edmund P. Jensen and Ralph R. Shaw. The Governance Committee oversees Board governance and related Trustee matters. The Governance Committee did not hold any meetings during the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018.
The Trust faces a number of risks, such as investment risk, counterparty risk, valuation risk, reputational risk, cybersecurity risk, risk of operational failure or lack of business continuity, and legal, compliance and regulatory risk. The Board of Trustees seeks continuously to be alert to potential risks regarding the Trust's business and operations as an integral part of its responsibility for oversight of the Trust. The goal of risk management is to identify and address risks, i.e., events or circumstances that could have material adverse effects on the business, operations, shareholder services, investment performance or reputation of the Trust. Under the overall oversight of the Board of Trustees, the Trust and the Manager, the Sub-Adviser and other service providers to the Trust, employ a variety of processes, procedures and controls in an effort to identify, address and mitigate risks. Operational or other failures, including cybersecurity failures, at any one or more of the Trust's service providers could have a material adverse effect on the Trust and its shareholders.
The Board of Trustees has a Chair who is an Independent Trustee. The Board of Trustees and its Chair address risk management as a regular part of their oversight responsibilities through contact with the Chief Compliance Officer and other key management personnel, and through policies and procedures in place for regulation of the Trust's activities and conduct.
In addition, a Risk Group, consisting of the Chief Compliance Officer, President, Executive Vice President and Treasurer of the Trust (who are also officers and/or employees of the Manager), as well as the Co-Presidents of the Distributor, meets and reports to the Board of Trustees as to significant risks and compliance matters. Issues raised are considered by the Board of Trustees as it deems appropriate. Service providers to the Trust, such as the Trust's independent accountants, also make periodic reports to the Board of Trustees with respect to various aspects of risk management.
The Board of Trustees recognizes that not all risks that may affect the Trust can be identified, that it may not be practical or cost-effective to eliminate or mitigate certain risks, that it may be necessary to bear certain risks (such as investment-related risks) to achieve the Trust's goals, that the processes, procedures and controls employed to address certain risks may be limited in their effectiveness, and that some risks are simply beyond the control of the Trust, the Manager, the Sub-Adviser or other service providers. Because most of the Trust's operations are carried out by various service providers, the Board's oversight of the risk management processes of those service providers, including processes to address cybersecurity and other operational failures, is inherently limited (see "Cybersecurity Issues" above). As a result of the foregoing and other factors, the Board of Trustees' risk management oversight is subject to substantial limitations.
The Board of Trustees has determined that its leadership structure is appropriate because it serves to facilitate the orderly and efficient flow of information to the Trustees from management, including the Manager and the Sub-Adviser, and otherwise enhance the Board of Trustees' oversight role. The Board of Trustees has also determined that its leadership structure is appropriate given the circumstances that the Trust invests primarily in municipal obligations issued by the State of Oregon, its counties and various other local authorities, and the Board of Trustees uses the local knowledge of its Trustees as well as their business experience.
Trustees and Officers
The following material includes information about the Trustees and officers of the Trust. All shares of the Trust listed as owned by the Trustees are Class A Shares unless indicated otherwise.
Name and
Year of Birth (1)
|
Positions Held with
Trust and
Length of Service(2)
|
Principal Occupation(s)
During Past 5 Years
|
Number of
Portfolios in
Fund Complex(3)
Overseen by
Trustee
|
Other Directorships Held
by Trustee During Past 5 Years
|
Interested Trustee(4)
|
|
|
|
|
Diana P. Herrmann
New York, NY
(1958)
|
Vice Chair of the Board
of Trustees since 2003,
President since 1998
and Trustee since 1994
|
Chair (since 2016 and previously Vice Chair since 2004) and Chief Executive Officer (since 2004) of Aquila Management Corporation, Founder and Sponsor of the Aquila Group of Funds(6) and parent of Aquila Investment Management LLC, Manager, President since 1997, Chief Operating Officer, 1997-2008, a Director since 1984, Secretary since 1986 and previously its Executive Vice President, Senior Vice President or Vice President, 1986-1997; Chief Executive Officer (since 2004) and Chair (since 2016 and previously Vice Chair since 2004), President and Manager since 2003, and Chief Operating Officer (2003-2008), of the Manager; Chair, Vice Chair, President, Executive Vice President and/or Senior Vice President of funds in the Aquila Group of Funds since 1986; Manager of the Distributor since 1997; Governor, Investment Company Institute (the U.S. mutual fund industry trade organization dedicated to protecting shareholder interests and educating the public about investing) for various periods since 2004, and Chair of its Small Funds Committee, 2004-2009; active in charitable and volunteer organizations.
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11
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Director of ICI Mutual Insurance Company, a Risk Retention Group, for various periods since 2006; formerly Vice Chair and Trustee of Pacific Capital Funds of Cash Assets Trust (three money-market funds in the Aquila Group of Funds) 2004-2012
|
Name and
Year of Birth (1)
|
Positions Held with
Trust and
Length of Service(2)
|
Principal Occupation(s)
During Past 5 Years
|
Number of
Portfolios in
Fund Complex(3)
Overseen by
Trustee
|
Other Directorships Held
by Trustee During Past 5 Years
|
Non-interested Trustees
|
|
|
|
|
James A. Gardner
Terrebonne, OR
(1943)
|
Chair of the Board of
Trustees since 2005 and
Trustee since 1986
|
President, Gardner Associates, an investment and real estate firm, since 1989; Owner and Developer of Vandevert Ranch, Sunriver, Oregon since 1989; Founding Partner, Chairman Emeritus and previously Chairman (1991-2010), Ranch at the Canyons, Terrebonne, Oregon; President Emeritus and previously President (1981-1989), Lewis and Clark College and Law School; director, Oregon High Desert Museum, 1989-2003; active in civic, business and educational organizations in Oregon; writer on Native American and settlement history of Oregon.
|
1
|
None
|
Gary C. Cornia
St. George, UT
(1948)
|
Trustee since 2002
|
Emeritus Dean and Professor, Marriott School of Management, Brigham Young University 2014-present; Professor, Marriott School of Management, Brigham Young University, 1980-2014; Commissioner, Utah State Securities Commission, 2013–present; Dean, Marriott School of Management, 2008-2013; Director, Romney Institute of Public Management, Marriott School of Management, 2004-2008; Past President, National Tax Association; Fellow, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 2002-present; Associate Dean, Marriott School of Management, Brigham Young University, 1991-2000; member, Utah Governor's Tax Review Committee, 1993-2009.
|
8
|
International Center for Land Policies and Training, Taipei, Taiwan, Director and Chair of Executive Committee
|
Name and
Year of Birth (1)
|
Positions Held with
Trust and
Length of Service(2)
|
Principal Occupation(s)
During Past 5 Years
|
Number of
Portfolios in
Fund Complex(3)
Overseen by
Trustee
|
Other Directorships Held
by TrusteeDuring Past 5 Years
|
Henry H. Hewitt
Bend, OR
(1941)
|
Trustee since 2015
|
Senior Counsel, Stoel Rives LLP, a Portland law firm, since 2011; (Retired 2015) Partner 1975-2011.
|
1
|
Columbia Forest Products; Hampton Affiliates (timber products) ; Life Trustee, Willamette University; Friends of the Children (child mentoring); Former Director, Cascade Bancorp and Bank of the Cascades
|
Edmund P. Jensen
Portland, OR
(1937)
|
Trustee since 2003
|
President and CEO, VISA International, 1994-1999; Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer, US Bancorp, 1974-1994.
|
1
|
Former Director: FiveCubits, Inc. (formerly BMG Seltec), a software company; Lewis and Clark College, Portland, OR
|
John W. Mitchell
Lake Oswego, OR
(1944)
|
Trustee since 1999
|
Principal of M & H Economic Consultants; Economist, Western Region, for U.S. Bancorp 1998-2007; Chief Economist, U.S. Bancorp, Portland, Oregon, 1983-1998; member, Oregon Governor's Council of Economic Advisors, 1984-1998; Chairman, Oregon Governor's Technical Advisory Committee for Tax Review in 1998.
|
1
|
Oregon Mutual Insurance; Western Capital Corporation; Northwest Bank.
|
Patricia L. Moss
Bend, OR
(1953)
|
Trustee since 2015,
2002-2005; Trustee
Emerita since 2005-2015
|
Director, First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. since May 2017; Vice Chairman, Cascade Bancorp and Bank of the Cascades 2012-2017, President and Chief Executive Officer 1997-2012; active in community and educational organizations.
|
1
|
MDU Resources Group; Co-Chair, Oregon Growth Board; formerly board member, North Pacific Group (building materials) and Central Oregon Independent Health Services
|
Name and
Year of Birth (1)
|
Positions Held with
Trust and
Length of Service(2)
|
Principal Occupation(s)
During Past 5 Years
|
Number of
Portfolios in
Fund Complex(3)
Overseen by
Trustee
|
Other Directorships Held
by TrusteeDuring Past 5 Years
|
Ralph R. Shaw
Portland, OR
(1938)
|
Trustee since 2000
|
President, Shaw Management Company, an investment counseling firm, 1980-present; General Partner, Shaw Venture Partners, 1983-2005; Shaw Venture Partners II, 1987-2005; Shaw Venture Partners III, 1994-2005.
|
1
|
Former Director: FiveCubits, Inc. (formerly BMG Seltec); Rentrak Corporation
|
(1) The mailing address of each Trustee is c/o Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon, 120 West 45th Street, Suite 3600, New York, NY 10036.
(2) Each Trustee holds office until his or her successor is elected or his or her earlier retirement or removal.
(3) Includes certain Aquila-sponsored funds that are dormant and have no public shareholders.
(4)Ms. Herrmann is an “interested person” of the Trust, as that term is defined in the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”), as an officer of the Trust, as a director, officer and shareholder of the Manager’s corporate parent, as an officer and Manager of the Manager, and as a Manager of the Distributor.
(5) The “Aquila Group of Funds” includes: Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Arizona, Aquila Tax-Free Fund of Colorado, Hawaiian Tax-Free Trust, Aquila Churchill Tax-Free Fund of Kentucky, Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon, Aquila Narragansett Tax-Free Income Fund (Rhode Island) and Aquila Tax-Free Fund For Utah, each of which is a tax-free municipal bond fund and are called the “Aquila Municipal Bond Funds”; Aquila Three Peaks Opportunity Growth Fund, which is an equity fund; and Aquila Three Peaks High Income Fund, which is a high-income corporate bond fund.
Name and
Year of Birth(1)
|
Positions Held with
Trust and Length
of Service(2)
|
Principal Occupation(s)
During Past 5 Years
|
Trustee Emeritus(3)
|
|
|
Vernon R. Alden
Boston, MA
(1923)
|
Trustee Emeritus since
2006
|
Retired; former director or trustee of various Fortune 500 companies, including Colgate-Palmolive and McGraw Hill; formerly President of Ohio University and Associate Dean of the Harvard University Graduate School of Business Administration; Trustee, Aquila Narragansett Tax-Free Income Fund, 1992-2006, Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon, 1988-2001, Hawaiian Tax-Free Trust, 1989-2001, and Pacific Capital Funds of Cash Assets Trust (three money-market funds in the Aquila Group of Funds, consisting of Pacific Capital Cash Assets Trust, Pacific Capital Tax-Free Cash Assets Trust and Pacific Capital U.S. Government Securities Cash Assets Trust), 1989-2001; Trustee Emeritus, Aquila Narragansett Tax-Free Income Fund and Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon since 2006; member of several Japan-related advisory councils, including Chairman of the Japan Society of Boston; trustee of various cultural, educational and civic organizations.
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|
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Officers
|
|
|
Charles E.
Childs, III
New York, NY
(1957)
|
Executive Vice President
since 2003 and Secretary
since 2011
|
Executive Vice President of all funds in the Aquila Group of Funds and the Manager and the Manager’s parent since 2003; Chief Operating Officer of the Manager and the Manager’s parent since 2008; Secretary of all funds in the Aquila Group of Funds since 2011; formerly Senior Vice President, corporate development, Vice President, Assistant Vice President and Associate of the Manager’s parent since 1987; Executive Vice President, Senior Vice President, Vice President or Assistant Vice President of the Aquila money-market funds, 1988-2012; Manager of the Distributor since 2012.
|
Marie E. Aro
New York, NY
(1955)
|
Senior Vice President
since 2010
|
Co-President, Aquila Distributors LLC since 2010, Vice President, 1993-1997; Senior Vice President, Aquila Municipal Trust (since 2013), Aquila Funds Trust (since 2013), Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Arizona (since 2010 and Vice President, 2004-2010), Aquila Three Peaks High Income Fund (since 2006), Hawaiian Tax-Free Trust and Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon (since 2010), Aquila Three Peaks Opportunity Growth Fund (2004-2013) and Aquila Churchill Tax-Free Fund of Kentucky, Aquila Narragansett Tax-Free Income Fund, Aquila Tax-Free Fund For Utah, and Aquila Tax-Free Fund of Colorado (2010-2013); Vice President, INVESCO Funds Group, 1998-2003
..
|
|
|
|
Name and
Year of Birth(1)
|
Positions Held with
Trust and Length
of Service(2)
|
Principal Occupation(s)
During Past 5 Years
|
Paul G. O’Brien
New York, NY
(1959)
|
Senior Vice President
since 2010
|
Co-President, Aquila Distributors LLC since 2010, Managing Director, 2009-2010; Senior Vice President of various funds in the Aquila Group of Funds since 2010 and all funds since 2013; held various positions to Senior Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer of Evergreen Investments Services, Inc., 1997-2008; Mergers and Acquisitions Coordinator for Wachovia Corporation, 1994-1997.
|
Christine L. Neimeth
Portland, OR
(1964)
|
Vice President since 1998
|
Vice President of Aquila Three Peaks Opportunity Growth Fund since 1999 and Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon since 1998.
|
Randall S. Fillmore
New York, NY
(1960)
|
Chief Compliance Officer
since 2012
|
Chief Compliance Officer of all funds in the Aquila Group of Funds, the Manager and the Distributor since 2012; Managing Director, Fillmore & Associates, 2009-2012; Fund and Adviser Chief Compliance Officer (2002-2009), Senior Vice President - Broker Dealer Compliance (2004-2009), Schwab Funds Anti Money Laundering Officer and Identity Theft Prevention Officer (2004-2009), Vice President - Internal Audit (2000-2002), Charles Schwab Corporation; National Director, Information Systems Risk Management - Consulting Services (1999-2000), National Director, Investment Management Audit and Business Advisory Services (1992-1999), Senior Manager, Manager, Senior and Staff Roles (1983-1992), PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
|
Joseph P. DiMaggio
New York, NY
(1956)
|
Chief Financial Officer
since 2003 and Treasurer
since 2000
|
Chief Financial Officer of all funds in the Aquila Group of Funds since 2003 and Treasurer since 2000.
|
Yolonda S. Reynolds
New York, NY
(1960)
|
Assistant Treasurer since
2010
|
Assistant Treasurer of all funds in the Aquila Group of Funds since 2010; Director of Fund Accounting for the Aquila Group of Funds since 2007.
|
Lori A. Vindigni
New York, NY
(1966)
|
Assistant Treasurer since
2000
|
Assistant Treasurer of all funds in the Aquila Group of Funds since 2000; Assistant Vice President of the Manager or its predecessor and current parent since 1998; Fund Accountant for the Aquila Group of Funds, 1995-1998.
|
(1) The mailing address of each officer is c/o Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon, 120 West 45th Street, Suite 3600, New York, NY 10036.
(2) The term of office of each officer is one year.
(3) A Trustee Emeritus may attend Board meetings but has no voting power.
The specific experience, qualifications, attributes or skills that led to the conclusion that these persons should serve as Trustees of the Trust at this time in light of the Trust's business and structure, in addition to those listed above, were as follows:
Diana P. Herrmann:
|
Over 36 years of experience in the financial services industry, 31 of which have been in mutual fund management, most recently as the Chair, Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of Aquila Management Corporation ("Aquila"), Founder and Sponsor of the Aquila Group of Funds and parent of the adviser, manager or administrator of each fund of the Aquila Group of Funds, and previously as the Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Senior Vice President or Vice President of Aquila.
|
James A. Gardner:
|
Knowledgeable about operation and governance of mutual funds as an investment company board member for 31 years; knowledgeable about economic and public affairs as the president of an investment and real estate firm and former university and law school president as detailed above.
|
Gary C. Cornia:
|
Experienced educator knowledgeable about business and finance as a business school dean as detailed above; knowledgeable about operation and governance of mutual funds as an investment company board member for 24 years.
|
Henry H. Hewitt
|
Experienced lawyer knowledgeable about corporate governance, business, finance, public companies, compliance and management through his legal practice and as chair of Stoel Rives LLP; experience as a board member of various organizations as detailed above, including public companies; extensive community service in Oregon.
|
|
|
Edmund P. Jensen:
|
Knowledgeable about banking, finance and management as an executive of various organizations as detailed above; knowledgeable about operation and governance of mutual funds as an investment company board member for 14 years.
|
John W. Mitchell:
|
Experienced economist knowledgeable about economic and governmental affairs and with extensive knowledge of Oregon economy as detailed above; knowledgeable about operation and governance of mutual funds as an investment company board member for 18 years.
|
Patricia L. Moss
|
Experience in and knowledgeable about banking, finance, business development and management through her positions as an executive as detailed above; knowledgeable about the Oregon economy and local, state and regional issues; experience as a board member of various organizations as detailed above, including public companies; knowledgeable about the operation and governance of mutual funds as a Trustee of Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon from 2003 to 2005 and from June, 2015 until present.
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Ralph R. Shaw:
|
Knowledgeable about finance and management, with extensive knowledge of local and national capital markets, as a prominent local businessman as detailed above; knowledgeable about operation and governance of mutual funds as an investment company board member for 17 years.
|
References to the qualifications, attributes and skills of Trustees are pursuant to the requirements of the SEC, do not constitute holding out of the Board or any Trustee as having special expertise or experience, and shall not impose any greater responsibility or liability on any such person or on the Board by reason thereof.
Securities Holdings of the Trustees
(as of 12/31/17)
Following is information regarding the holdings of each Trustee in the Trust.
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|
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Name of
Trustee
|
Dollar Range of
Ownership in
Aquila Tax-Free Trust of Oregon(1)
|
Aggregate Dollar Range
of Ownership in funds in
the Aquila Group of Funds(1)
|
|
Interested Trustee
|
|
|
|
|
|
Diana P. Herrmann
|
C
|
E
|
|
|
|
Non-interested Trustees
|
|
|
|
|
|
James A. Gardner
|
E
|
E
|
|
|
|
Gary C. Cornia
|
D
|
E
|
|
|
|
Henry H. Hewitt
|
C
|
C
|
|
|
|
Edmund P. Jensen
|
E
|
E
|
|
|
|
John W. Mitchell
|
E
|
E
|
|
|
|
Patricia L. Moss
|
E
|
E
|
|
|
|
Ralph R. Shaw
|
C
|
C
|
|
|
|
(1) A. None
B. $1-$10,000
C. $10,001-$50,000
D. $50,001-$100,000
E. Over $100,000
None of the non-interested Trustees or their immediate family members holds of record or beneficially any securities of the Manager, the Sub-Adviser or the Distributor.
Trustee Compensation
The Trust does not currently pay fees to any of the Trust's officers or to Trustees affiliated with the Manager.
For its fiscal year ended March 31, 2018, the Trust paid a total of $292,906 in compensation and reimbursement of expenses to the Trustees. No other compensation or remuneration of any type, direct or contingent, was paid by the Trust to its Trustees.
The Trust is one of the funds in the Aquila Group of Funds, which, as of the date of this SAI, consist of seven tax-free municipal bond funds, a high-income corporate bond fund and an equity fund. The following table lists the compensation of all non-interested Trustees who received compensation from the Trust and the compensation they received during the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018 from other funds in the Aquila Group of Funds. None of such Trustees has any pension or retirement benefits from any of the funds in the Aquila Group of Funds.
Name
|
Compensation as Trustee from the
Trust for the Fiscal
Year Ended March 31, 2018
|
Compensation as Trustee from All Funds
in the Aquila Group of Funds for the
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2018
|
Number of Funds in the Aquila Group of
Funds Overseen by the Trustee for the
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2018
|
|
|
|
|
James A. Gardner
|
$54,800
|
$54,800
|
1
|
Gary C. Cornia
|
$27,050
|
$110,300
|
8
|
Henry H. Hewitt
|
$29,300
|
$29,300
|
1
|
Edmund P. Jensen
|
$28,300
|
$28,300
|
1
|
John W. Mitchell
|
$31,300
|
$31,300
|
1
|
Patricia L. Moss
|
$29,800
|
$29,800
|
1
|
Ralph R. Shaw
|
$39,300
|
$39,300
|
1
|
Class A Shares of the Trust may be purchased without a sales charge by the Trust's Trustees and officers. (See "Reduced Sales Charges for Certain Purchases of Class A Shares," below.)
Ownership of Securities
On July 2, 2018, the following persons held 5% or more of any class of the Trust's outstanding shares. On the basis of information received from the institutional holders, the Trust's management believes that all of the shares indicated are held by them for the benefit of clients.
Record Holder
Institutional 5% shareholders
|
Share Class
|
Number of Shares
|
Percent of Class
|
Charles Schwab & Co. Inc.
Special Custody Account
FBO Customers
101 Montgomery Street
San Francisco, CA
|
Class A
Class C
Class Y
|
6,588,245
427,695
5,105,052
|
18.67%
17.98%
26.44%
|
Pershing LLC
1 Pershing Plaza
Jersey City, NJ
|
Class A
Class C
Class Y
|
3,488,520
417,514
2,320,903
|
9.88%
17.55%
12.02%
|
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC
Harborside Financial Center
Jersey City, NJ
|
Class A
Class C
|
2,159,145
150,190
|
6.12%
6.31%
|
Record Holder
|
Share Class
|
Number of Shares
|
Percent of Class
|
Wells Fargo Clearing Services LLC
FBO Customers
2801 Market Street
St. Louis, MO
|
Class A
Class C
Class Y
|
2,114,704
287,278
1,123,630
|
5.99%
12.07%
5.82%
|
Additional 5% shareholders
|
|
|
|
The Trust's management is not aware of any other person beneficially owning more than 5% of any class of its outstanding shares as of such date.
Management Ownership
As of the date of this SAI, all of the Trustees and officers of the Trust as a group owned less than 1% of its outstanding shares.
Investment Advisory and Other Services
Additional Information about the Manager, the Sub-Adviser, and the Distributor
Management Fees
During the fiscal years listed, the Trust incurred management fees (investment advisory fees) as follows:
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2018:
$2,562,558(1)
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2017:
2,642,873(2)
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2016:
$2,355,174(3)
(1) $48,128 was waived.
(2) $52,144 was waived.
(3) $37,592 was waived.
The management fees are treated as Trust expenses and, as such, are allocated to each class of shares based on the relative net assets of that class.
Aquila Distributors LLC, 120 West 45th Street, Suite 3600, New York, NY 10036 is the Trust's Distributor. The Distributor currently handles the distribution of the shares of the funds in the Aquila
Group of Funds, including the Trust. Under the Distribution Agreement, the Distributor is responsible for the payment of certain printing and distribution costs relating to prospectuses and reports as well as the costs of supplemental sales literature, advertising and other promotional activities.
The Distributor is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Aquila Management Corporation ("AMC"), founder and sponsor of each fund in the Aquila Group of Funds.
The Advisory and Administration Agreement
The Advisory and Administration Agreement provides that, subject to the direction and control of the Board of Trustees, the Manager shall:
|
(i) |
supervise continuously the investment program of the Trust and the composition of its portfolio;
|
|
(ii) |
determine what securities shall be purchased or sold by the Trust;
|
|
(iii) |
arrange for the purchase and the sale of securities held in the portfolio of the Trust; and
|
|
(iv) |
at its expense provide for pricing of the Trust's portfolio daily using a pricing service or other source of pricing information satisfactory to the Trust and, unless otherwise directed by the Board of Trustees, provide for pricing of the Trust's portfolio at least quarterly using another such source satisfactory to the Trust.
|
The Advisory and Administration Agreement provides that, subject to the termination provisions described below, the Manager may at its own expense delegate to a qualified organization ("Sub-Adviser"), affiliated or not affiliated with the Manager, any or all of the above duties. Any such delegation of the duties set forth in (i), (ii) or (iii) above shall be by a written agreement (the "Sub-Advisory Agreement") approved as provided in Section 15 of the 1940 Act. The Manager has delegated all of such functions to the Sub-Adviser in the Sub-Advisory Agreement.
The Advisory and Administration Agreement also provides that, subject to the direction and control of the Board of Trustees of the Trust, the Manager shall provide all administrative services to the Trust other than those relating to its investment portfolio which have been delegated to a Sub-Adviser of the Trust under the Sub-Advisory Agreement; as part of such administrative duties, the Manager shall:
|
(i) |
provide office space, personnel, facilities and equipment for the performance of the following functions and for the maintenance of the headquarters of the Trust;
|
|
(ii) |
oversee all relationships between the Trust and any sub-adviser, transfer agent, custodian, legal counsel, auditors and principal underwriter, including the negotiation of agreements in relation thereto, the supervision and coordination of the performance of such agreements, and the overseeing of all administrative matters which are necessary or desirable for the effective operation of the Trust and for the sale, servicing or redemption of the Trust's shares;
|
|
(iii) |
either keep the accounting records of the Trust, including the computation of net asset value per share and the dividends (provided that if there is a Sub-Adviser, daily pricing of the Trust's portfolio shall be the responsibility of the Sub-Adviser under the Sub-Advisory Agreement) or, at its expense and responsibility, delegate such duties in whole or in part to a company satisfactory to the Trust;
|
|
(iv) |
maintain the Trust's books and records, and prepare (or assist counsel and auditors in the preparation of) all required proxy statements, reports to the Trust's shareholders and Trustees, reports to and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and any other governmental agencies, and tax returns, and oversee the insurance relationships of the Trust;
|
|
(v) |
prepare, on behalf of the Trust and at the Trust's expense, such applications and reports as may be necessary to register or maintain the registration of the Trust and/or its shares under the securities or "Blue-Sky" laws of all such jurisdictions as may be required from time to time; and
|
|
(vi) |
respond to any inquiries or other communications of shareholders of the Trust and broker/dealers, or if any such inquiry or communication is more properly to be responded to by the Trust's shareholder servicing and transfer agent or distributor, oversee such shareholder servicing and transfer agent's or distributor's response thereto.
|
The Advisory and Administration Agreement contains provisions relating to compliance of the investment program, responsibility of the Manager for any investment program managed by it, allocation of brokerage, and responsibility for errors that are substantially the same as the corresponding provisions in the Sub-Advisory Agreement.
The Advisory and Administration Agreement provides that the Manager shall, at its own expense, pay all compensation of Trustees, officers, and employees of the Trust who are affiliated persons of the Manager.
The Trust bears the costs of preparing and setting in type its prospectuses, statements of additional information and reports to its shareholders, and the costs of printing or otherwise producing and distributing those copies of such prospectuses, statements of additional information and reports as are sent to its shareholders. All costs and expenses not expressly assumed by the Manager under the agreement or otherwise by the Manager, administrator or principal underwriter or by any sub-adviser shall be paid by the Trust, including, but not limited to (i) interest and taxes; (ii) brokerage commissions; (iii) insurance premiums; (iv) compensation and expenses of its Trustees other than those affiliated with the Manager or such sub-adviser, administrator or principal underwriter except for certain expenses of those who are officers of the Trust; (v) legal and audit expenses; (vi) custodian and transfer agent, or shareholder servicing agent, fees and expenses; (vii) expenses incident to the issuance of its shares (including issuance on the payment of, or reinvestment of, dividends); (viii) fees and expenses incident to the registration under Federal or State securities laws of the Trust or its shares; (ix) expenses of preparing, printing and mailing reports and notices and proxy material to shareholders of the Trust; (x) all other expenses incidental to holding meetings of the Trust's shareholders; and (xi) such non-recurring expenses as may arise, including litigation affecting the Trust and the legal obligations for which the Trust may have to indemnify its officers and Trustees.
The Advisory and Administration Agreement provides that the Trust shall pay an annual fee payable monthly and computed on the net asset value of the Trust as of the close of business each business day at the annual rate of 0.50 of 1% of such net asset value; provided, however, that for any day that the Trust pays or accrues a fee under the Distribution Plan of the Trust based upon the assets of the Trust, the annual fee shall be payable at the annual rate of 0.40 of 1% of such net asset value. The Manager has contractually undertaken to waive its fees to the extent necessary so that the annual rate is equivalent to 0.40 of 1% of net assets of the Trust up to $400,000,000; 0.38 of 1% of net assets above $400,000,000 up to $1,000,000,000; and 0.36 of 1% of net assets above $1,000,000,000. This contractual
undertaking is in effect until September 30, 2019. Prior to September 30, 2019, the Manager may not terminate the arrangement without the approval of the Board of Trustees.
The Advisory and Administration Agreement provides that it may be terminated by the Manager at any time without penalty upon giving the Trust sixty days' written notice (which notice may be waived by the Trust) and may be terminated by the Trust at any time without penalty upon giving the Manager sixty days' written notice (which notice may be waived by the Manager), provided that such termination by the Trust shall be directed or approved by a vote of a majority of its Trustees in office at the time or by a vote of the holders of a majority (as defined in the 1940 Act) of the voting securities of the Trust outstanding and entitled to vote. The specific portions of the Advisory and Administration Agreement which relate to providing investment advisory services will automatically terminate in the event of the assignment (as defined in the 1940 Act) of the Advisory and Administration Agreement, but all other provisions relating to providing services other than investment advisory services will not terminate, provided however, that upon such an assignment the annual fee payable monthly and computed on the net asset value of the Trust as of the close of business each business day shall be reduced to the annual rate of 0.27 of 1% of such net asset value and provided further, that for any day that the Trust pays or accrues a fee under the Distribution Plan of the Trust based upon the assets of the Trust, the annual fee shall be payable at the annual rate of 0.22 of 1% of such asset value.
The Sub-Advisory Agreement
The services of the Sub-Adviser are rendered under the Sub-Advisory Agreement between the Manager and the Sub-Adviser, which provides, subject to the control of the Board of Trustees, for investment supervision and at the Sub-Adviser's expense for pricing of the Trust's portfolio daily using a pricing service or other source of pricing information satisfactory to the Trust and, unless otherwise directed by the Board of Trustees, for pricing of the Trust's portfolio at least quarterly using another such source satisfactory to the Trust.
Unless terminated as therein provided, the Sub-Advisory Agreement shall continue in effect from year to year so long as such continuance is specifically approved at least annually (1) by a vote of the Trust's Board of Trustees, including a vote of a majority of the Trustees who are not parties to the agreement or "interested persons" (as defined in the 1940 Act) of any such party, with votes cast in person at a meeting called for the purpose of voting on such approval, or (2) by a vote of the holders of a "majority" (as so defined) of the dollar value of the outstanding voting securities of the Trust and by such a vote of the Trustees. The Sub-Advisory Agreement may be terminated by the Sub-Adviser at any time without penalty upon giving the Manager and the Trust sixty days' written notice (which notice may be waived). It may be terminated by the Manager or the Trust at any time without penalty upon giving the Sub-Adviser sixty days' written notice (which notice may be waived by the Sub-Adviser), provided that such termination by the Trust shall be directed or approved by a vote of a majority of its Trustees in office at the time or by a vote of the holders of a majority (as defined in the 1940 Act) of the dollar value of the voting securities of the Trust outstanding and entitled to vote. The Sub-Advisory Agreement will automatically terminate in the event of its assignment (as defined in the 1940 Act) or the termination of the Advisory and Administration Agreement.
The following is a summary of the other material terms of the Sub-Advisory Agreement:
In the agreement, the Manager appoints the Sub-Adviser to render, to the Manager and to the Trust, investment research and advisory services under the supervision of the Manager and subject to the approval and direction of the Board of Trustees of the Trust. The Sub-Adviser is to act as managerial investment adviser to the Trust with respect to
the investment of the Trust's assets, and supervise and arrange the purchase of securities for and the sale of securities held in the portfolio of the Trust.
The Sub-Adviser agrees, subject to the other provisions of the agreement and to the direction and control of the Manager and the Board of Trustees of the Trust, to:
|
(i) |
supervise continuously the investment program of the Trust and the composition of its portfolio;
|
|
(ii) |
determine what securities shall be purchased or sold by the Trust;
|
|
(iii) |
arrange for the purchase and the sale of securities held in the portfolio of the Trust;
|
|
(iv) |
at its expense provide for pricing of the Trust's portfolio daily using a pricing service or other source of pricing information satisfactory to the Trust and, unless otherwise directed by the Board of Trustees, provide for pricing of the Trust's portfolio at least monthly using another such source satisfactory to the Trust; and
|
|
(v) |
consult with the Manager in connection with its duties under the agreement.
|
It is agreed that any investment program furnished by the Sub-Adviser shall conform to, and be in accordance with, any requirements imposed by the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the "Act") and any rules or regulations thereunder, any other applicable laws, rules and regulations, the Declaration of Trust and By-laws of the Trust as amended from time to time, any policies and determinations of the Board of Trustees of the Trust, and the fundamental policies of the Trust.
The Sub-Advisory Agreement provides that, subject to the restriction stated below, nothing in it shall prevent the Sub-Adviser or any affiliated person (as defined in the Act) of the Sub-Adviser from acting as investment adviser or manager for any other person, firm or corporation and shall not in any way limit or restrict the Sub-Adviser or any such affiliated person from buying, selling or trading any securities for its own or their own accounts or for the accounts of others for whom it or they may be acting, provided, however, that the Sub-Adviser expressly represents that, while acting as Sub-Adviser, it will undertake no activities which, in its judgment, will adversely affect the performance of its obligations to the Trust under the Sub-Advisory Agreement. Notwithstanding the foregoing, the Sub-Adviser is prohibited from managing any other registered Oregon bond fund without the Manager's consent.
The Sub-Advisory Agreement contains provisions regarding brokerage described below under "Brokerage Allocation and Other Practices."
The Sub-Adviser agrees to maintain, and to preserve for the periods prescribed, such books and records with respect to the portfolio transactions of the Trust as are required by the Act, the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (the "Advisers Act") or by applicable law and regulation, and agrees that all records which it maintains for the Trust on behalf of the Manager shall be the property of the Trust.
The Sub-Adviser agrees to maintain a compliance program reasonably designed to prevent violations by the Sub-Adviser of the Federal Securities Laws as defined in Rule 38a-1 under the Act (the "Federal Securities Laws"), and to maintain written policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to prevent violation by the Trust of the Federal Securities Laws, solely in connection with the Sub-Adviser carrying out its duties to the Trust. There are related provisions concerning cooperation with the Trust's Chief Compliance Officer and describing certain reporting and certification requirements.
It is agreed that the Sub-Adviser shall have no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of the Trust's Registration Statement under the Act and the Securities Act of 1933, except for information supplied by the Sub-Adviser for inclusion therein.
Under the Sub-Advisory Agreement, the Sub-Adviser shall not be liable for any error in judgment or for any loss suffered by the Trust or its security holders in connection with the matters to which the agreement relates, except a loss resulting from willful misfeasance, bad faith or gross negligence on its part in the performance of its duties or from reckless disregard by it of its obligations and duties under the agreement. But nothing in the Sub-Advisory Agreement shall, or shall be construed to, waive or limit any rights which the Trust may have under federal and state securities laws which may impose liability under certain circumstances on persons who act in good faith.
To the extent that the Manager is indemnified under the Trust's Declaration of Trust with respect to the services provided by the Sub-Adviser, the Manager agrees to provide the Sub-Adviser the benefits of such indemnification.
The Sub-Adviser bears all of the expenses it incurs in fulfilling its obligations under the Sub-Advisory Agreement. It also pays all compensation of the Trust's officers, employees, and Trustees, if any, who are affiliated persons of the Sub-Adviser.
For its services, the Sub-Adviser is entitled to receive a fee from the Manager which is payable monthly and computed on the net asset value of the Trust as of the close of business each business day at the annual rates of 0.18 of 1% of such net asset value on net assets of the Trust up to $400,000,000; 0.16 of 1% of the Trust's net assets above that amount to $1,000,000,000 and 0.14 of 1% of the Trust's net assets above $1,000,000,000.
Prior to December 31, 2010, sub-advisory services were provided by FAF Advisors, Inc., a subsidiary of U.S. Bank National Association. FAF Advisors, Inc. was paid a fee at the annual rate of 0.18 of 1% of the Trust's net assets.
Sub-Advisory Fees
During the fiscal years listed, the Manager accrued sub-advisory fees to the Sub-Adviser as follows:
Year
|
Fee
|
Waivers
|
2018
|
$1,153,151
|
$48,128
|
|
|
|
2017
|
$1,189,293
|
$52,144
|
2016
|
$1,059,827
|
$37,592
|
Information about the Manager and the Sub-Adviser
The Trust's Manager is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Aquila Management Corporation ("AMC"), founder and sponsor of each fund in the Aquila Group of Funds. As of June 30, 2018, the Aquila Group of Funds consisted of seven tax-free municipal bond funds, a high income corporate bond fund and an equity fund, with aggregate assets of approximately $3.3 billion, of which approximately
$2.7 billion consisted of assets of the tax-free municipal bond funds. AMC's address is the same as that of the Manager. AMC was founded in 1984 and is owned by Diana P. Herrmann and members of her family. Ms. Herrmann is Vice Chair, a Trustee and the President of the Trust and Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer of AMC. Performance of the Advisory and Administration Agreement is guaranteed by AMC.
The Sub-Adviser is an independent registered investment adviser that does business in Oregon and Colorado as Kirkpatrick Pettis Capital Management. The Sub-Adviser provides a wide range of fixed-income investment management services for organizations including non-profit entities, higher education institutions, state governments, school districts, and all levels of local government. The Sub-Adviser and its predecessor companies have served as investment sub-adviser to Tax-Free Fund of Colorado since 1992. The Sub-Adviser has approximately $1.1 billion in assets under management. It has a local office at 222 S.W. Columbia Street, Suite 1400, Portland, OR 97201 and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Davidson Companies, based at 8 Third Street North, Great Falls, Montana.
Additional Information About the Portfolio Managers
The portfolio management team consists of Mr. Christopher B. Johns and Mr. Timothy Iltz, who are responsible for the day-to-day management of the Trust.
Mr. Johns also manages Aquila Tax-Free Fund of Colorado. Mr. Johns manages no other investment companies and no other pooled investment vehicles. He manages 8 other accounts with assets totaling approximately $180 million, which do not pay him performance-based compensation. His compensation is a fixed salary plus bonus, which is calculated on a fixed percentage of annual fee revenue received by the Sub-Adviser. He receives no compensation from the Trust or the Trust's investment adviser.
Mr. Iltz manages no other investment companies and no other pooled investment vehicles. He manages 20 other accounts with assets totaling approximately $18.5 million, which do not pay him performance-based compensation. His compensation is a fixed salary plus bonus, which is calculated on a fixed percentage of annual fee revenue received by the Sub-Adviser. He receives no compensation from the Trust or the Trust's investment adviser.
There are in general no situations where the Trust's opportunities or the execution of its investment program may be compromised or limited by the investments of the other accounts, except that there may be occurrences where a scarcity of bonds of Oregon issuers hinders the execution of the Trust's investment program – a factor that affects all accounts sharing the same investment strategy. In such situations, the Sub-Adviser is bound to allocate trades fairly among all such accounts, adhering to its policies and procedures on trade allocation, its Code of Ethics and applicable compliance procedures. In addition, the minimum block sizes and maturity requirements of purchases for the Trust typically differ from the investment requirements of other accounts managed by the portfolio manager.
Mr. Johns owns shares of the Trust in the range of $10,001 - $50,000. Mr. Iltz owns shares of the Trust in the range of $1-$10,000.
Underwriting Commissions
During the fiscal years listed, the aggregate dollar amount of sales charges on sales of Class A shares of the Trust and the amount retained by the Distributor, respectively, were as follows:
|
Sales Charges
|
Retained by Distributor
|
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2018:
|
|
|
|
$410,939
|
$76,347
|
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2017:
|
|
|
|
$1,001,833
|
$172,275
|
|
|
|
Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2016:
|
|
|
|
$1,034,416
|
$198,946
|
|
|
|
During the fiscal years listed, there were no sales charges on sales of Class T shares of the Trust.
Class A Shares - In connection with sales of Class A Shares, the Distributor pays a portion of the sales charge on such shares to dealers in the form of discounts and to brokers in the form of agency commissions (together, "Commissions"), in amounts that vary with the size of the sales charge as follows:
Amount of Purchase Plus Value of All Other Shares Held by a Single Purchaser
|
Sales Charge as Percentage of Public Offering Price
|
Commissions as Percentage of Offering Price
|
Less than $25,000
|
4.00%
|
3.00%
|
$25,000 but less than $50,000
|
3.75%
|
3.00%
|
$50,000 but less than $100,000
|
3.50%
|
2.75%
|
$100,000 but less than $250,000
|
3.25%
|
2.75%
|
Since the offering price is calculated to two decimal places using standard rounding methodology, the dollar amount of the sales charge as a percentage of the offering price and the net amount invested (the amount of your investment less the sales charge) for any particular purchase of Trust shares may be higher or lower due to rounding.
Class T Shares – Class T Shares may be offered by financial intermediaries with different front-end sales load structures. Each Class T Financial Intermediary will fall into one of the Categories of Financial Intermediaries described below, based on the front-end sales load structure offered by the particular financial intermediary. There are currently two categories of financial intermediaries (Category One Financial Intermediaries and Category Two Financial Intermediaries). Other categories of financial intermediaries may be added in the future. Currently, all financial intermediaries that offer Class T Shares are Category One Financial Intermediaries.
Category One Financial Intermediaries - In connection with sales of Class T Shares through a Category One Financial Intermediary, the Distributor typically pays all of the sales charge on such shares to the financial intermediary as a concession ("Commissions"), in amounts that vary with the size of the purchase as follows:
Amount of Purchase
|
Sales Charge as Percentage of Public Offering Price
|
Commissions as Percentage of Offering Price
|
|
|
|
Less than $250,000
|
2.50%
|
2.50%
|
$250,000 but less than $500,000
|
2.00%
|
2.00%
|
$500,000 but less than $1,000,000
|
1.50%
|
1.50%
|
$1,000,000 and over
|
1.00%
|
1.00%
|
Category Two Financial Intermediaries - In connection with sales of Class T Shares through a Category Two Financial Intermediary, the Distributor typically pays all of the sales charge on such shares to the financial intermediary as a concession ("Commissions") as follows:
Amount of Purchase
|
Sales Charge as Percentage of Public Offering Price
|
Commissions as Percentage of Offering Price
|
|
|
|
$0 or more
|
2.50%
|
2.50%
|
Since the offering price is calculated to two decimal places using standard rounding methodology, the dollar amount of the sales charge as a percentage of the offering price and the net amount invested (the amount of your investment less the sales charge) for any particular purchase of Trust shares may be higher or lower due to rounding.
Distribution Plan
The Trust has adopted a Distribution Plan under Rule 12b-1 under the 1940 Act. The Trust's Distribution Plan has five parts, relating respectively to distribution payments with respect to Class A Shares (Part I), to distribution payments relating to Class C Shares (Part II), to distribution payments related to Class T Shares (Part IV) and to certain defensive provisions (Part V).
For purposes of Parts I, II and IV, the Distributor will consider shares which are not Qualified Holdings of broker/dealers unaffiliated with the Manager, Sub-Adviser or Distributor to be Qualified Holdings of the Distributor and will authorize Permitted Payments to the Distributor with respect to such shares whenever Permitted Payments are being made under the Plan.
Provisions Relating to Class A Shares(Part I)
Part I of the Plan applies only to the Front-Payment Class Shares ("Class A Shares") of the Trust (regardless of whether such class is so designated or is redesignated by some other name).
As used in Part I of the Plan, "Qualified Recipients" shall mean broker/dealers or others selected by Aquila Distributors LLC (the "Distributor"), including but not limited to any principal underwriter of the Trust, with which the Trust or the Distributor has entered into written agreements in connection with Part I ("Class A Plan Agreements") and which have rendered assistance (whether direct, administrative, or both) in the distribution and/or retention of the Trust's Front-Payment Class Shares or servicing of shareholder
accounts with respect to such shares. "Qualified Holdings" shall mean, as to any Qualified Recipient, all Front-Payment Class Shares beneficially owned by such Qualified Recipient, or beneficially owned by its brokerage customers, other customers, other contacts, investment advisory clients, or other clients, if the Qualified Recipient was, in the sole judgment of the Distributor, instrumental in the purchase and/or retention of such shares and/or in providing administrative assistance or other services in relation thereto.
Subject to the direction and control of the Trust's Board of Trustees, the Trust may make payments ("Class A Permitted Payments") to Qualified Recipients, which Class A Permitted Payments may be made directly, or through the Distributor or shareholder servicing agent as disbursing agent, which may not exceed, for any fiscal year of the Trust (as adjusted for any part or parts of a fiscal year during which payments under the Plan are not accruable or for any fiscal year which is not a full fiscal year), 0.15 of 1% of the average annual net assets of the Trust represented by the Front-Payment Class Shares. Such payments shall be made only out of the Trust's assets allocable to the Front-Payment Class Shares.
The Distributor shall have sole authority (i) as to the selection of any Qualified Recipient or Recipients; (ii) not to select any Qualified Recipient; and (iii) as to the amount of Class A Permitted Payments, if any, to each Qualified Recipient provided that the total Class A Permitted Payments to all Qualified Recipients do not exceed the amount set forth above. The Distributor is authorized, but not directed, to take into account, in addition to any other factors deemed relevant by it, the following: (a) the amount of the Qualified Holdings of the Qualified Recipient; (b) the extent to which the Qualified Recipient has, at its expense, taken steps in the shareholder servicing area with respect to holders of Front-Payment Class Shares, including without limitation, any or all of the following activities: answering customer inquiries regarding account status and history, and the manner in which purchases and redemptions of shares of the Trust may be effected; assisting shareholders in designating and changing dividend options, account designations and addresses; providing necessary personnel and facilities to establish and maintain shareholder accounts and records; assisting in processing purchase and redemption transactions; arranging for the wiring of funds; transmitting and receiving funds in connection with customer orders to purchase or redeem shares; verifying and guaranteeing shareholder signatures in connection with redemption orders and transfers and changes in shareholder designated accounts; furnishing (either alone or together with other reports sent to a shareholder by such person) monthly and year-end statements and confirmations of purchases and redemptions; transmitting, on behalf of the Trust, proxy statements, annual reports, updating prospectuses and other communications from the Trust to its shareholders; receiving, tabulating and transmitting to the Trust proxies executed by shareholders with respect to meetings of shareholders of the Trust; and providing such other related services as the Distributor or a shareholder may request from time to time; and (c) the possibility that the Qualified Holdings of the Qualified Recipient would be redeemed in the absence of its selection or continuance as a Qualified Recipient. Notwithstanding the foregoing two sentences, a majority of the Independent Trustees (as defined below) may remove any person as a Qualified Recipient. Amounts within the above limits accrued to a Qualified Recipient but not paid during a fiscal year may be paid thereafter; if less than the full amount is accrued to all Qualified Recipients, the difference will not be carried over to subsequent years.
While Part I is in effect, the Trust's Distributor shall report at least quarterly to the Trust's Trustees in writing for their review on the following matters: (i) all Class A Permitted Payments made under the Plan, the identity of the Qualified Recipient of each payment, and the purposes for which the amounts were expended; and (ii) all fees of the Trust paid to the Manager, Sub-Adviser or Distributor or accrued during such quarter. In addition, if any such Qualified Recipient is an affiliated person, as that term is defined in the 1940 Act, of the Trust, Manager, Sub-Adviser or Distributor, such person shall agree to furnish to the Distributor for transmission to the Board of Trustees of the Trust an accounting, in form and detail satisfactory to the Board of Trustees, to enable the Board of Trustees to make the
determinations of the fairness of the compensation paid to such affiliated person, not less often than annually.
Part I will, unless terminated as hereinafter provided, continue in effect from year to year so long as such continuance is specifically approved at least annually by the Trust's Trustees and its Independent Trustees with votes cast in person at a meeting called for the purpose of voting on such continuance. Part I may be terminated at any time by the vote of a majority of the Independent Trustees or by the vote of the holders of a "majority" (as defined in the 1940 Act) of the dollar value of the outstanding voting securities of the Trust to which Part I applies. Part I may not be amended to increase materially the amount of payments to be made without shareholder approval of the class or classes of shares affected by Part I, and all material amendments must be approved by the Trust's Trustees and its Independent Trustees in the manner set forth above.
In the case of a Qualified Recipient which is a principal underwriter of the Trust, the Class A Plan Agreement shall be the agreement contemplated by Section 15(b) of the 1940 Act since each such agreement must be approved in accordance with, and contain the provisions required by, the Rule. In the case of Qualified Recipients which are not principal underwriters of the Trust, the Class A Plan Agreements with them shall be (i) their agreements with the Distributor with respect to payments under the Trust's Distribution Plan in effect prior to April 1, 1996 or (ii) Class A Plan Agreements entered into thereafter.
Provisions Relating to Class C Shares (Part II)
Part II of the Plan applies only to the Level-Payment Class Shares ("Class C Shares") of the Trust (regardless of whether such class is so designated or is redesignated by some other name).
As used in Part II of the Plan, "Qualified Recipients" shall mean broker/dealers or others selected by the Distributor, including but not limited to any principal underwriter of the Trust, with which the Trust or the Distributor has entered into written agreements in connection with Part II ("Class C Plan Agreements") and which have rendered assistance (whether direct, administrative, or both) in the distribution and/or retention of the Trust's Level-Payment Class Shares or servicing of shareholder accounts with respect to such shares. "Qualified Holdings" shall mean, as to any Qualified Recipient, all Level-Payment Class Shares beneficially owned by such Qualified Recipient, or beneficially owned by its brokerage customers, other customers, other contacts, investment advisory clients, or other clients, if the Qualified Recipient was, in the sole judgment of the Distributor, instrumental in the purchase and/or retention of such shares and/or in providing administrative assistance or other services in relation thereto.
Subject to the direction and control of the Trust's Board of Trustees, the Trust may make payments ("Class C Permitted Payments") to Qualified Recipients, which Class C Permitted Payments may be made directly, or through the Distributor or shareholder servicing agent as disbursing agent, which may not exceed, for any fiscal year of the Trust (as adjusted for any part or parts of a fiscal year during which payments under the Plan are not accruable or for any fiscal year which is not a full fiscal year), 0.75 of 1% of the average annual net assets of the Trust represented by the Level-Payment Class Shares. Such payments shall be made only out of the Trust's assets allocable to the Level-Payment Class Shares. The Distributor shall have sole authority (i) as to the selection of any Qualified Recipient or Recipients; (ii) not to select any Qualified Recipient; and (iii) as to the amount of Class C Permitted Payments, if any, to each Qualified Recipient provided that the total Class C Permitted Payments to all Qualified Recipients do not exceed the amount set forth above. The Distributor is authorized, but not directed, to take into account, in addition to any other factors deemed relevant by it, the following: (a) the amount of the Qualified Holdings of the Qualified Recipient; (b) the extent to which the Qualified Recipient has, at its expense, taken steps in the shareholder servicing area with respect to holders of
Level-Payment Class Shares, including without limitation, any or all of the following activities: answering customer inquiries regarding account status and history, and the manner in which purchases and redemptions of shares of the Trust may be effected; assisting shareholders in designating and changing dividend options, account designations and addresses; providing necessary personnel and facilities to establish and maintain shareholder accounts and records; assisting in processing purchase and redemption transactions; arranging for the wiring of funds; transmitting and receiving funds in connection with customer orders to purchase or redeem shares; verifying and guaranteeing shareholder signatures in connection with redemption orders and transfers and changes in shareholder designated accounts; furnishing (either alone or together with other reports sent to a shareholder by such person) monthly and year-end statements and confirmations of purchases and redemptions; transmitting, on behalf of the Trust, proxy statements, annual reports, updating prospectuses and other communications from the Trust to its shareholders; receiving, tabulating and transmitting to the Trust proxies executed by shareholders with respect to meetings of shareholders of the Trust; and providing such other related services as the Distributor or a shareholder may request from time to time; and (c) the possibility that the Qualified Holdings of the Qualified Recipient would be redeemed in the absence of its selection or continuance as a Qualified Recipient. Notwithstanding the foregoing two sentences, a majority of the Independent Trustees (as defined below) may remove any person as a Qualified Recipient. Amounts within the above limits accrued to a Qualified Recipient but not paid during a fiscal year may be paid thereafter; if less than the full amount is accrued to all Qualified Recipients, the difference will not be carried over to subsequent years.
While Part II is in effect, the Trust's Distributor shall report at least quarterly to the Trust's Trustees in writing for their review on the following matters: (i) all Class C Permitted Payments made under the Plan, the identity of the Qualified Recipient of each payment, and the purposes for which the amounts were expended; and (ii) all fees of the Trust paid to the Manager, Sub-Adviser or Distributor or accrued during such quarter. In addition, if any such Qualified Recipient is an affiliated person, as that term is defined in the 1940 Act, of the Trust, Manager, Sub-Adviser or Distributor such person shall agree to furnish to the Distributor for transmission to the Board of Trustees of the Trust an accounting, in form and detail satisfactory to the Board of Trustees, to enable the Board of Trustees to make the determinations of the fairness of the compensation paid to such affiliated person, not less often than annually.
Part II will, unless terminated as therein provided, continue in effect from year to year so long as such continuance is specifically approved at least annually by the Trust's Trustees and its Independent Trustees with votes cast in person at a meeting called for the purpose of voting on such continuance. Part II may be terminated at any time by the vote of a majority of the Independent Trustees or by the vote of the holders of a "majority" (as defined in the 1940 Act) of the dollar value of the outstanding voting securities of the Trust to which Part II applies. Part II may not be amended to increase materially the amount of payments to be made without shareholder approval of the class or classes of shares affected by Part II, and all material amendments must be approved by the Trust's Trustees and its Independent Trustees in the manner set forth above.
In the case of a Qualified Recipient which is a principal underwriter of the Trust, the Class C Plan Agreement shall be the agreement contemplated by Section 15(b) of the 1940 Act since each such agreement must be approved in accordance with, and contain the provisions required by, the Rule. In the case of Qualified Recipients which are not principal underwriters of the Trust, the Class C Plan Agreements with them shall be (i) their agreements with the Distributor with respect to payments under the Trust's Distribution Plan in effect prior to April 1, 1996 or (ii) Class C Plan Agreements entered into thereafter.
Provisions Relating to Class T Shares (Part IV)
Part IV of the Plan applies only to the Transactional Class Shares ("Class T Shares") of the Trust (regardless of whether such class is so designated or is redesignated by some other name).
As used in Part IV of the Plan, "Qualified Recipients" shall mean broker/dealers or others selected by Aquila Distributors LLC (the "Distributor"), including but not limited to any principal underwriter of the Trust, with which the Trust or the Distributor has entered into written agreements in connection with Part IV ("Class T Plan Agreements") and which have rendered assistance (whether direct, administrative, or both) in the distribution and/or retention of the Trust's Class T Shares or servicing of shareholder accounts with respect to such shares. "Qualified Holdings" shall mean, as to any Qualified Recipient, all Class T Shares beneficially owned by such Qualified Recipient, or beneficially owned by its brokerage customers, other customers, other contacts, investment advisory clients, or other clients, if the Qualified Recipient was, in the sole judgment of the Distributor, instrumental in the purchase and/or retention of such shares and/or in providing administrative assistance or other services in relation thereto.
Subject to the direction and control of the Trust's Board of Trustees, the Trust may make payments ("Class T Shares Permitted Payments") to Qualified Recipients, which Class T Shares Permitted Payments may be made directly, or through the Distributor or shareholder servicing agent as disbursing agent, which may not exceed, for any fiscal year of the Trust (as adjusted for any part or parts of a fiscal year during which payments under the Plan are not accruable or for any fiscal year which is not a full fiscal year), for the Trust, 0.25 of 1% of the average annual net assets of the Trust represented by Class T Shares. Such payments shall be made only out of the Trust's assets allocable to Class T Shares.
The Distributor shall have sole authority (i) as to the selection of any Qualified Recipient or Recipients; (ii) not to select any Qualified Recipient; and (iii) as to the amount of Class T Permitted Payments, if any, to each Qualified Recipient provided that the total Class T Permitted Payments to all Qualified Recipients do not exceed the amount set forth above. The Distributor is authorized, but not directed, to take into account, in addition to any other factors deemed relevant by it, the following: (a) the amount of the Qualified Holdings of the Qualified Recipient; (b) the extent to which the Qualified Recipient has, at its expense, taken steps in the shareholder servicing area with respect to holders of Class T Shares, including without limitation, any or all of the following activities: answering customer inquiries regarding account status and history, and the manner in which purchases and redemptions of shares of the Trust may be effected; assisting shareholders in designating and changing dividend options, account designations and addresses; providing necessary personnel and facilities to establish and maintain shareholder accounts and records; assisting in processing purchase and redemption transactions; arranging for the wiring of funds; transmitting and receiving funds in connection with customer orders to purchase or redeem shares; verifying and guaranteeing shareholder signatures in connection with redemption orders and transfers and changes in shareholder designated accounts; furnishing (either alone or together with other reports sent to a shareholder by such person) monthly and year-end statements and confirmations of purchases and redemptions; transmitting, on behalf of the Trust, proxy statements, annual reports, updating prospectuses and other communications from the Trust to its shareholders; receiving, tabulating and transmitting to the Trust proxies executed by shareholders with respect to meetings of shareholders of the Trust; and providing such other related services as the Distributor or a shareholder may request from time to time; and (c) the possibility that the Qualified Holdings of the Qualified Recipient would be redeemed in the absence of its selection or continuance as a Qualified Recipient. Notwithstanding the foregoing two sentences, a majority of the Independent Trustees (as defined below) may remove any person as a Qualified Recipient. Amounts within the above limits accrued to a Qualified Recipient but not
paid during a fiscal year may be paid thereafter; if less than the full amount is accrued to all Qualified Recipients, the difference will not be carried over to subsequent years.
While Part IV is in effect, the Trust's Distributor shall report at least quarterly to the Trust's Trustees in writing for their review on the following matters: (i) all Class T Permitted Payments made under the Plan, the identity of the Qualified Recipient of each payment, and the purposes for which the amounts were expended; and (ii) all fees of the Trust paid to the Adviser, Administrator or Distributor or accrued during such quarter. In addition, if any such Qualified Recipient is an affiliated person, as that term is defined in the 1940 Act, of the Trust, Adviser, Administrator or Distributor, such person shall agree to furnish to the Distributor for transmission to the Board of Trustees of the Trust an accounting, in form and detail satisfactory to the Board of Trustees, to enable the Board of Trustees to make the determinations of the fairness of the compensation paid to such affiliated person, not less often than annually.
Part IV will, unless terminated as hereinafter provided, continue in effect from year to year so long as such continuance is specifically approved at least annually by the Trust's Trustees and its Independent Trustees with votes cast in person at a meeting called for the purpose of voting on such continuance. Part IV may be terminated at any time by the vote of a majority of the Independent Trustees or by the vote of the holders of a "majority" (as defined in the 1940 Act) of the dollar value of the outstanding voting securities of the Trust. Part IV may not be amended to increase materially the amount of payments to be made without shareholder approval of the class or classes of shares affected by Part IV, and all material amendments must be approved by the Trust's Trustees and its Independent Trustees in the manner set forth above.
In the case of a Qualified Recipient which is a principal underwriter of the Trust, the Class T Plan Agreement shall be the agreement contemplated by Section 15(b) of the 1940 Act since each such agreement must be approved in accordance with, and contain the provisions required by, the Rule. In the case of Qualified Recipients which are not principal underwriters of the Trust, the Class T Plan Agreements with them shall be their agreements with the Distributor with respect to payments under the Trust's Distribution Plan.
Defensive Provisions (Part V)
Another part of the Plan (Part V) states that if and to the extent that any of the payments listed below are considered to be "primarily intended to result in the sale of" shares issued by the Trust within the meaning of Rule 12b-1, such payments are authorized under the Plan: (i) the costs of the preparation of all reports and notices to shareholders and the costs of printing and mailing such reports and notices to existing shareholders, irrespective of whether such reports or notices contain or are accompanied by material intended to result in the sale of shares of the Trust or other funds or other investments; (ii) the costs of the preparation and setting in type of all prospectuses and statements of additional information and the costs of printing and mailing all prospectuses and statements of additional information to existing shareholders; (iii) the costs of preparation, printing and mailing of any proxy statements and proxies, irrespective of whether any such proxy statement includes any item relating to, or directed toward, the sale of the Trust's shares; (iv) all legal and accounting fees relating to the preparation of any such reports, prospectuses, statements of additional information, proxies and proxy statements; (v) all fees and expenses relating to the registration or qualification of the Trust and/or its shares under the securities or "Blue-Sky" laws of any jurisdiction; (vi) all fees under the Securities Act of 1933 and the 1940 Act, including fees in connection with any application for exemption relating to or directed toward the sale of the Trust's shares; (vii) all fees and assessments of the Investment Company Institute or any successor organization, irrespective of whether some of its activities are designed to provide sales assistance; (viii) all costs of the preparation and mailing of confirmations of shares sold or redeemed or share certificates,
and reports of share balances; and (ix) all costs of responding to telephone or mail inquiries of investors or prospective investors.
The Plan states that while it is in effect, the selection and nomination of those Trustees of the Trust who are not "interested persons" of the Trust shall be committed to the discretion of such disinterested Trustees but that nothing in the Plan shall prevent the involvement of others in such selection and nomination if the final decision on any such selection and nomination is approved by a majority of such disinterested Trustees.
The Plan defines as the Trust's Independent Trustees those Trustees who are not "interested persons" of the Trust as defined in the 1940 Act and who have no direct or indirect financial interest in the operation of the Plan or in any agreements related to the Plan. The Plan, unless terminated as therein provided, continues in effect from year to year only so long as such continuance is specifically approved at least annually by the Trust's Board of Trustees and its Independent Trustees with votes cast in person at a meeting called for the purpose of voting on such continuance. In voting on the implementation or continuance of the Plan, those Trustees who vote to approve such implementation or continuance must conclude that there is a reasonable likelihood that the Plan will benefit the Trust and its shareholders. The Plan may be terminated at any time by vote of a majority of the Independent Trustees or by the vote of the holders of a "majority" (as defined in the 1940 Act) of the dollar value of the outstanding voting securities of the Trust. The Plan may not be amended to increase materially the amount of payments to be made without shareholder approval and all amendments must be approved in the manner set forth above as to continuance of the Plan.
The Plan and each Part of it shall also be subject to all applicable terms and conditions of Rule 18f-3 under the 1940 Act as now in force or hereafter amended. Specifically, but without limitation, the provisions of Part V shall be deemed to be severable, within the meaning of and to the extent required by Rule 18f-3, with respect to each outstanding class of shares of the Trust.
Payments Under the Plan
During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018, payments were made by the Trust under Part I and Part II of the Plan. All payments were to Qualified Recipients and were for compensation. No payments were made under Part IV of the Plan.
Payments to Qualified Recipients
During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018, payments to Qualified Recipients by the Trust under each part of the Plan and the amounts of such payments to the Distributor and others were as follows:
|
To All Qualified
Recipients
|
To the Distributor
|
To Other Qualified Recipients
|
Part I
|
$608,690
|
$27,072
|
$581,618
|
Part II
|
$254,608
|
$78,427
|
$176,181
|
No payments were made under Part IV of the Plan during the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018.
All payments to Other Qualified Recipients, most of whom are broker/dealers, and to the Distributor, were for compensation. Payments with respect to Class C Shares during the first year after purchase are paid to the Distributor and thereafter to Other Qualified Recipients.
Amounts paid under the Plan as compensation to Qualified Recipients, including the Distributor, are not based on the recipient's expenses in providing distribution, retention and/or shareholder servicing assistance to the Trust and, accordingly, are not regarded as reimbursement of such expenses.
Shareholder Services Plan
Separate from the Trust's Distribution Plan, the Trust has adopted a Shareholder Services Plan (the "Services Plan") to provide for the payment with respect to Class C Shares of the Trust of "Service Fees" within the meaning of the Conduct Rules of the National Association of Securities Dealers (as incorporated in the rules of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)). The Services Plan applies only to the Class C Shares of the Trust (regardless of whether such class is so designated or is redesignated by some other name).
Provisions for Level-Payment Class Shares (Class C Shares) (Part I)
As used in Part I of the Services Plan, "Qualified Recipients" shall mean broker/dealers or others selected by the Distributor, including but not limited to the Distributor and any other principal underwriter of the Trust, who have, pursuant to written agreements with the Trust or the Distributor, agreed to provide personal services to shareholders of Level-Payment Class Shares and/or maintenance of Level-Payment Class Shares shareholder accounts. "Qualified Holdings" shall mean, as to any Qualified Recipient, all Level-Payment Class Shares beneficially owned by such Qualified Recipient's customers, clients or other contacts. "Manager" shall mean Aquila Investment Management LLC or any successor serving as manager or administrator of the Trust.
Subject to the direction and control of the Trust's Board of Trustees, the Trust may make payments ("Service Fees") to Qualified Recipients, which Service Fees (i) may be paid directly or through the Distributor or shareholder servicing agent as disbursing agent and (ii) may not exceed, for any fiscal year of the Trust (as adjusted for any part or parts of a fiscal year during which payments under the Services Plan are not accruable or for any fiscal year which is not a full fiscal year), 0.25 of 1% of the average annual net assets of the Trust represented by the Level-Payment Class Shares. Such payments shall be made only out of the Trust's assets allocable to the Level-Payment Class Shares. The Distributor shall have sole authority with respect to the selection of any Qualified Recipient or Recipients and the amount of Service Fees, if any, paid to each Qualified Recipient, provided that the total Service Fees paid to all Qualified Recipients may not exceed the amount set forth above and provided, further, that no Qualified Recipient may receive more than 0.25 of 1% of the average annual net asset value of shares sold by such Recipient. The Distributor is authorized, but not directed, to take into account, in addition to any other factors deemed relevant by it, the following: (a) the amount of the Qualified Holdings of the Qualified Recipient and (b) the extent to which the Qualified Recipient has, at its expense, taken steps in the shareholder servicing area with respect to holders of Level-Payment Class Shares, including without limitation, any or all of the following activities: answering customer inquiries regarding account status and history, and the manner in which purchases and redemptions of shares of the Trust may be effected; assisting shareholders in designating and changing dividend options, account designations and addresses; providing necessary personnel and facilities to establish and maintain shareholder accounts and records; assisting in processing purchase and redemption transactions; arranging for the wiring of funds; transmitting and receiving funds in connection with customer orders to purchase or redeem shares; verifying and guaranteeing shareholder signatures in connection with redemption orders and transfers and changes in shareholder designated accounts; and providing such other related services as the Distributor
or a shareholder may request from time to time. Notwithstanding the foregoing two sentences, a majority of the Independent Trustees (as defined below) may remove any person as a Qualified Recipient. Amounts within the above limits accrued to a Qualified Recipient but not paid during a fiscal year may be paid thereafter; if less than the full amount is accrued to all Qualified Recipients, the difference will not be carried over to subsequent years. Service Fees with respect to Class C Shares will be paid to the Distributor.
During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018, $84,869 was paid to the Distributor under Part I of the Plan.
General Provisions
While the Services Plan is in effect, the Trust's Distributor shall report at least quarterly to the Trust's Trustees in writing for their review on the following matters: (i) all Service Fees paid under the Services Plan, the identity of the Qualified Recipient of each payment, and the purposes for which the amounts were expended; and (ii) all fees of the Trust paid to the Distributor or accrued during such quarter. In addition, if any Qualified Recipient is an "affiliated person," as that term is defined in the 1940 Act, of the Trust, Manager, Sub-Adviser or Distributor, such person shall agree to furnish to the Distributor for transmission to the Board of Trustees of the Trust an accounting, in form and detail satisfactory to the Board of Trustees, to enable the Board of Trustees to make the determinations of the fairness of the compensation paid to such affiliated person, not less often than annually.
The Trust's Services Plan has been approved by a vote of the Trustees, including those Trustees who, at the time of such vote, were not "interested persons" (as defined in the 1940 Act) of the Trust and had no direct or indirect financial interest in the operation of the Services Plan or in any agreements related to the Services Plan (the "Independent Trustees"), with votes cast in person at a meeting called for the purpose of voting on the Services Plan. It will continue in effect for a period of more than one year from its original effective date only so long as such continuance is specifically approved at least annually as set forth in the preceding sentence. It may be amended in like manner and may be terminated at any time by vote of the Independent Trustees.
The Trust's Services Plan shall also be subject to all applicable terms and conditions of Rule 18f-3 under the 1940 Act as now in force or hereafter amended.
While the Trust's Services Plan is in effect, the selection and nomination of those Trustees of the Trust who are not "interested persons" of the Trust, as that term is defined in the 1940 Act, shall be committed to the discretion of such disinterested Trustees. Nothing therein shall prevent the involvement of others in such selection and nomination if the final decision on any such selection and nomination is approved by a majority of such disinterested Trustees.
Codes of Ethics
The Trust, the Manager, the Sub-Adviser and the Distributor have adopted codes of ethics pursuant to Rule 17j-1 under the 1940 Act. The codes permit personnel of these organizations who are subject to the codes to purchase securities, including the types of securities in which the Trust invests, but only in compliance with the provisions of the codes.
Transfer Agent, Custodian and Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm
The Trust's Shareholder Servicing Agent (transfer agent and dividend-paying agent) is BNY Mellon Investment Servicing (US) Inc., 4400 Computer Drive, Westborough, Massachusetts 01581.
The Trust's Custodian, The Bank of New York Mellon, 225 Liberty Street, New York, New York 10286, is responsible for holding the Trust's assets.
The Trust's independent registered public accounting firm, Tait, Weller & Baker LLP, 1818 Market Street, Suite 2400, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103, performs an annual audit of the Trust's financial statements.
Brokerage Allocation and Other Practices
During the fiscal years ended March 31, 2018, 2017 and 2016, all of the Trust's portfolio transactions were principal transactions and no brokerage commissions were paid.
The Sub-Adviser shall select such broker/dealers ("dealers") as shall, in the Sub-Adviser's judgment, implement the policy of the Trust to seek to achieve "best execution," i.e., prompt, efficient, and reliable execution of orders at the most favorable net price.Municipal obligations, including state obligations, purchased and sold by the Trust are generally traded in the over-the-counter market on a net basis (i.e., without commission) through broker-dealers and banks acting for their own account rather than as brokers, or otherwise involve transactions directly with the issuer of such obligations. Such firms attempt to profit from such transactions by buying at the bid price and selling at the higher asked price of the market for such obligations, and the difference between the bid and asked price is customarily referred to as the spread. The Trust may also purchase municipal obligations from underwriters, and dealers in fixed-price offerings, the cost of which may include undisclosed fees and concessions to the underwriters. On occasion it may be necessary or appropriate to purchase or sell a security through a broker on an agency basis, in which case the Trust will incur a brokerage commission. In allocating transactions to dealers, the Sub-Adviser is authorized to consider, in determining whether a particular dealer will provide best execution, the dealer's reliability, integrity, financial condition and risk in positioning the securities involved, as well as the difficulty of the transaction in question, and thus need not pay the lowest spread or, if applicable, commission available if the Sub-Adviser determines in good faith that the amount of the spread or, if applicable, commission is reasonable in relation to the value of the brokerage and research services (as those terms are defined in Section 28(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) provided by the dealer, viewed either in terms of the particular transaction or the Sub-Adviser's overall responsibilities. If, on the foregoing basis, the transaction in question could be allocated to two or more dealers, the Sub-Adviser is authorized, in making such allocation, to consider whether a dealer has provided such brokerage or research services. The Trust recognizes that no dollar value can be placed on such brokerage or research services and that such brokerage or research services may or may not be useful to the Trust and may be used for the benefit of the Sub-Adviser or its other clients. The Sub-Adviser may use its affiliated broker-dealer, D.A. Davidson & Co. to execute a portion of the Trust's portfolio securities transactions. Any such transactions are subject to compliance with the 1940 Act and with the requirement that the Sub-Adviser seek to achieve "best execution" for such transactions, as discussed above. The Trust did not engage in any such affiliated brokerage transactions during its three most recent fiscal years.
Capital Stock
The Trust offers the following classes of shares.
* Front-Payment Class Shares ("Class A Shares") are offered to investors at net asset value plus a sales charge, paid at the time of purchase, at the maximum rate of 4.0% of the public offering price, with lower rates for larger purchases including previous purchases of shares of any class of any of the funds in the Aquila Group of Funds. There is no sales charge on purchases of $250,000 or more, but redemptions of shares so purchased are generally subject to a contingent deferred sales charge ("CDSC"). Class A Shares are subject to a fee under the Trust's Distribution Plan at the rate of 0.15 of 1% of the average annual net assets represented by the Class A Shares of the Trust.
* Level-Payment Class Shares ("Class C Shares") are offered to investors at net asset value with no sales charge payable at the time of purchase but with a level charge for service and distribution fees for six years after the date of purchase at the aggregate annual rate of 1% of the average annual net assets of the Class C Shares. Six years after the date of purchase, Class C Shares are automatically converted to Class A Shares. If you redeem Class C Shares before you have held them for 12 months from the date of purchase you will pay a CDSC; this charge is 1%, calculated on the net asset value of the Class C Shares at the time of purchase or at redemption, whichever is less. There is no CDSC after Class C Shares have been held beyond the applicable period. For purposes of applying the CDSC and determining the time of conversion, the 12-month and six-year holding periods are considered modified by up to one month depending upon when during a month your purchase of such shares is made. Class C Shares are subject to a fee under the Trust's Distribution Plan at the rate of 0.75 of 1% of the average annual net assets represented by the Class C Shares and a service fee of 0.25 of 1% of such assets.
* Fiduciary Class Shares ("Class F Shares") are offered and sold only through financial intermediaries with which the Distributor has entered into sales agreements, and are not offered directly to retail customers. Class F Shares are offered at net asset value with no sales charge, no contingent deferred sales charge, and no distribution fee.
* Transactional Class Shares ("Class T Shares") are offered to investors at net asset value plus a sales charge, paid at the time of purchase, at the maximum rate of 2.50% of the public offering price. The sales charge for Class T Shares can vary from financial intermediary to financial intermediary.Class T Shares are subject to a fee under the Fund's Distribution Plan at the rate of 0.25 of 1% of the average annual net assets represented by the Class T Shares. There is no exchange privilege, rights of accumulation, rights of reinstatement, or letters of intent for Class T Shares.
* Institutional Class Shares ("Class Y Shares") are offered and sold only through institutions acting for investors in a fiduciary, advisory, agency, custodial or similar capacity, and are not offered directly to retail customers. Class Y Shares of the Trust are offered at net asset value with no sales charge, no redemption fee, no contingent deferred sales charge and no distribution fee.
As an open-end management investment company, the Trust continuously offers its shares to the public and under normal conditions must redeem its shares upon the demand of any shareholder at the next determined net asset value per share less any applicable CDSC. See "Purchase, Redemption and Pricing of Shares." When issued and paid for in accordance with the terms of the prospectus and
statement of additional information, shares of the Trust are fully paid and non-assessable. Shares will remain on deposit with the Trust's transfer agent and certificates are no longer issued.
The Trust is the sole series of The Cascades Trust, a Massachusetts business trust. The Trustees have authorized the issuance of the following classes of shares of the Trust, designated as Class A, Class C, Class F, Class T and Class Y shares. Each share of a class of the Trust represents an equal proportionate interest in the assets of the Trust allocable to that class. Upon liquidation of the Trust, shareholders of each class of the Trust are entitled to share pro rata in the Trust's net assets allocable to such class available for distribution to shareholders. The Trust reserves the right to create and issue additional series or classes of shares, in which case the shares of each class of a series would participate equally in the earnings, dividends and assets allocable to that class of the particular series.
The shares of each class of the Trust represent an interest in the same portfolio of investments of the Trust. Each class has identical rights (based on relative net asset values) to assets and liquidation proceeds. Share classes can bear different class-specific fees and expenses such as transfer agent and distribution fees. Differences in class-specific fees and expenses will result in differences in net investment income and, therefore, the payment of different dividends by each class. Share classes have exclusive voting rights with respect to matters affecting only that class, including with respect to the distribution plan for that class.
The Trust's Declaration of Trust provides for shareholder voting as required by the 1940 Act or other applicable laws. The Trust is not required to hold an annual meeting of shareholders, but the Trust will call special meetings of shareholders whenever required by the 1940 Act or by the terms of the Declaration. Shareholders are entitled to one vote for each dollar value of net asset value (number of shares owned times net asset value per share) represented by the shareholder's shares in the Trust, on each matter on which that shareholder is entitled to vote. All shareholders of all series and classes of the Trust vote together, except where required by the 1940 Act to vote separately by series or by class, or when the trustees have determined that a matter affects only the interests of one or more series or classes of shares.
The Trustees may establish the number of Trustees and that vacancies on the Board may be filled by the remaining Trustees, except when election of Trustees by the shareholders is required under the 1940 Act. Trustees are then elected by a plurality of votes cast by shareholders at a meeting at which a quorum is present. The Declaration also provides that a mandatory retirement age may be set by action of two-thirds of the Trustees and that Trustees may be removed from office (a) with or without cause by action of the holders of the majority of shares of the Trust present in person or by proxy at any meeting of shareholders, provided that a quorum is present or (b) for cause by action of at least two-thirds (2/3) of the remaining Trustees. A Trustee also may be removed from office without cause by unanimous action of the remaining Trustees.
The Trustees are authorized to amend the Declaration of Trust without the vote of shareholders under certain circumstances. However, the Trustees are required to submit a future amendment to a vote of shareholders if such a vote were required by applicable law or if the amendment diminishes or eliminates any voting rights of shareholders under the Declaration. The Declaration provides that shareholders generally have the power to vote (a) with respect to the merger, reorganization or sale of assets of the Trust, (b) under certain circumstances, with respect to the termination of the Trust or a series or a class of the Trust, and (c) for the election or removal of Trustees. The Trust or a series or a class of the Trust may be terminated (i) if such action is recommended by the vote of a majority of the Trustees, by vote of at least a majority of shares present in person or by proxy at any meeting of shareholders, provided that a quorum is present; or (ii) by unanimous vote of the Trustees with notice to, but without the approval of, shareholders.
The Trust may issue an unlimited number of shares for such consideration and on such terms as the Trustees may determine. Shareholders are not entitled to any appraisal, preemptive, conversion, exchange or similar rights, except as the Trustees may determine. The Trust may involuntarily redeem a shareholder's shares upon certain conditions as may be determined by the Trustees, including, for example, if the shareholder fails to provide the Trust with identification required by law, if the Trust is unable to verify the information received from the shareholder, or if a determination is made that direct or indirect ownership of shares has become concentrated in a shareholder to an extent that would disqualify the Trust as a regulated investment company under the Code.Additionally, as discussed below, shares may be redeemed in connection with the closing of small accounts.
The Declaration of Trust specifically requires shareholders, upon demand, to disclose to the Trust information with respect to the direct and indirect ownership of shares in order to comply with various laws or regulations, and the Trust may disclose such ownership if required by law or regulation.
The Declaration of Trust provides that the Trust may close out a shareholder's account by redeeming all of the shares in the account if the account falls below a minimum account size (which may vary by class) that may be set by the Trustees from time to time. Alternately, the Declaration of Trust permits the Trust to assess a fee for small accounts (which may vary by class) and redeem shares in the account to cover such fees, or convert the shares into another share class that is geared to smaller accounts.
The Declaration of Trust gives broad authority to the Trustees to establish additional series and classes and to determine the rights and preferences of the shares of the series and classes, and to change those rights and preferences from time to time. The Declaration of Trust provides that shares of a series represent an interest in that series only and not in the assets of any other series or the Trust generally.
The Trust is an entity of the type commonly known as a "Massachusetts business trust." Under Massachusetts law, shareholders of the Trust may, under certain circumstances, be held personally liable as partners for the obligations of the trust. For shareholder protection, however, an express disclaimer of shareholder liability for acts or obligations of the Trust is contained in the Declaration of Trust, which requires that notice of such disclaimer be given in each agreement, obligation, or instrument entered into or executed by the Trust or the Trustees. The Declaration of Trust provides for indemnification out of the Trust's property of any shareholder held personally liable for the obligations of the Trust. The Declaration of Trust also provides that the Trust shall, upon request, assume the defense of any claim made against any shareholder for any act or obligation of the Trust and satisfy any judgment thereon. Thus, the risk of a shareholder incurring financial loss on account of shareholder liability is limited to the relatively remote circumstances in which the Trust itself would be unable to meet its obligations.
The Declaration of Trust provides that no Trustee, officer or employee of the Trust shall owe any duty, or have any related liability to any person (including without limitation any shareholder) other than to the Trust or any series of the Trust. The Declaration of Trust provides that no Trustee, officer or employee of the Trust shall be liable to the Trust or to any shareholder for any action or failure to act except for his or her own bad faith, willful misfeasance, gross negligence or reckless disregard of his or her duties involved in the conduct of the individual's office, and for nothing else, and shall not be liable for errors of judgment or mistakes of fact or law. The Declaration of Trust requires the Trust to indemnify each Trustee, director, officer, employee, or agent of the Trust to the extent permitted by law against liability and against all expenses reasonably incurred in connection with any claim, action, suit or proceeding in which the Trustee, officer or employee becomes involved as a party or otherwise by virtue of being or having been such a Trustee, director, officer, employee, or agent and against amounts paid or incurred in settlement thereof. The 1940 Act currently provides that no officer or director shall be protected from liability to a Fund or shareholders for willful misfeasance, bad faith, gross negligence, or
reckless disregard of the duties of office. The Declaration of Trust extends to trustees, officers and employees of the Fund, the full protection from liability that the law allows. The Declaration of Trust provides that the appointment, designation or identification of a Trustee as chairperson, a member of a committee, an expert, lead independent trustee, or any other special appointment, designation or identification shall not impose any heightened standard of care or liability on such Trustee.
The Declaration of Trust provides a detailed process for the bringing of derivative or direct actions by shareholders in order to permit legitimate inquiries and claims while avoiding the time, expense, distraction and other harm that can be caused to the Trust or its shareholders as a result of spurious shareholder demands and derivative actions. Prior to bringing a derivative action, a demand by three unrelated shareholders must first be made on the Trust's Trustees. The Declaration of Trust details various information, certifications, undertakings and acknowledgements that must be included in the demand. Following receipt of the demand, the trustees have a period of 90 days, which may be extended by an additional 60 days, to consider the demand. If a majority of the Trustees who are considered independent for the purposes of considering the demand determine that maintaining the suit would not be in the best interests of the Trust, the Trustees are required to reject the demand and the complaining shareholders may not proceed with the derivative action unless the shareholders are able to prove to a court that the decision of the Trustees was not a good faith exercise of their business judgment on behalf of the Trust. The Declaration of Trust further provides that shareholders owning shares representing at least 10% of the voting power of the Trust or class of shares of the Trust must join in bringing the derivative action. If a demand is rejected, the complaining shareholders will be responsible for the costs and expenses (including attorneys' fees) incurred by the Trust in connection with the consideration of the demand, if a court determines that the demand was made without reasonable cause or for an improper purpose. If a derivative action is brought in violation of the procedures required by the Declaration of Trust, the shareholders bringing the action may be responsible for the Trust's costs, including attorneys' fees, if a court determines that the action was brought without reasonable cause or for an improper purpose.
The Declaration of Trust provides that no shareholder may bring a direct action claiming injury as a shareholder of the Trust or any series or class thereof, where the matters alleged (if true) would give rise to a claim by the Trust or by the Trust on behalf of a series or class, unless the shareholder has suffered an injury distinct from that suffered by shareholders of the Trust, or the series or class, generally. Under the Declaration of Trust, a shareholder bringing a direct claim must be a shareholder of the series or class with respect to which the direct action is brought at the time of the injury complained of, or have acquired the shares afterwards by operation of law from a person who was a shareholder at that time.
The Declaration of Trust further provides that the Trust shall be responsible for payment of attorneys' fees and legal expenses incurred by a complaining shareholder only if required by law, and any attorneys' fees that the Trust is obligated to pay shall be calculated using reasonable hourly rates.The Declaration of Trust also requires that any direct or derivative shareholder action against or on behalf of the Trust, its trustees, officers or employees must be brought in the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts, in Boston, Massachusetts, or if such action cannot be brought in such court, then in Massachusetts Superior Court, Business Litigation Session, in Boston, Massachusetts. In addition, shareholders have no right to jury trial for such an action.
The Declaration of Trust also provides that shareholders have no rights, privileges, claims or remedies under any contract or agreement entered into by the Trust with any service provider or other agent or contract with the Trust, including, without limitation, any third party beneficiary rights, except as may be expressly provided in any service contract or agreement.
Purchase, Redemption, and Pricing of Shares
The following supplements the information about purchase, redemption and pricing of shares set forth in the Prospectus.
The availability of certain sales charge waivers and discounts may depend on whether you purchase your shares directly from the Trust or through a financial intermediary. Specific intermediaries may have different policies and procedures regarding the availability of front-end sales load waivers or contingent deferred (back-end) sales load ("CDSC") waivers, which are discussed below. In all instances, it is the purchaser's responsibility to notify the Trust or the purchaser's financial intermediary at the time of purchase of any relationship or other facts qualifying the purchaser for sales charge waivers or discounts. For waivers and discounts not available through a particular intermediary, shareholders will have to purchase Trust shares directly from the Trust or through another intermediary to receive these waivers or discounts. Please see the section "Broker-Defined Sales Charge Waiver Policies" in the Prospectus to determine any sales charge discounts and waivers that may be available to you through your financial intermediary.
Sales Charges for Purchases of $250,000 or More of Class A Shares
You will not pay a sales charge at the time of purchase when you purchase "CDSC Class A Shares." CDSC Class A Shares include:
(i) Class A Shares issued in a single purchase of $250,000 or more by a single purchaser; and
(ii) Class A Shares issued when the value of the purchase, together with the value (based on purchase cost or current net asset value, whichever is higher) of shares of the Trust or any other fund in the Aquila Group of Funds that are owned by the purchaser is $250,000 or more.
CDSC Class A Shares do not include Class A Shares purchased without a sales charge as described under "General" below.
Broker/Dealer Compensation - Class A and Class T Shares
Upon notice to all selected dealers, the Distributor may distribute up to the full amount of the applicable sales charge to broker/dealers. Under the Securities Act of 1933, broker/dealers may be deemed to be underwriters during periods when they receive all, or substantially all, of the sales charge.
Redemption of CDSC Class A Shares
If you redeem all or part of your CDSC Class A Shares during the four years after you purchase them, you may have to pay a special CDSC upon redemption of those shares. CDSC Class A Shares purchased without a sales charge pursuant to a Letter of Intent are subject to the CDSC (see "Reduced Sales Charges for Certain Purchases of Class A Shares" below). The CDSC will not apply to shares acquired through the reinvestment of dividends or distributions on CDSC Class A Shares.
When a CDSC is calculated, it will be applied to the lower of the original cost of the shares being redeemed or the current market value of those shares. Therefore, you do not pay a sales charge on amounts representing appreciation or depreciation. The rate used to calculate the CDSC is based on the
value of all shares of funds in the Aquila Group of Funds ("Aquila Fund Shares") (with the exception of Class T Shares) that you own at the time the shares being redeemed were originally purchased and will vary based on the number of years since the CDSC Class A Shares were purchased, according to the following table:
Value of All Aquila Fund Shares (with the exception of Class T Shares)
at Time Shares Being Redeemed were Originally Purchased
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CDSC Rate on Shares Redeemed
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$250,000 and up to $2.5 million
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1% on shares redeemed in years 1 & 2
0.50 of 1% on shares redeemed in years 3 & 4
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Over $2.5 million and up to $5 million
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0.50 of 1% on shares redeemed in year 1
0.25 of 1% on shares redeemed in year 2
0.0 on shares redeemed in years 3 & 4
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Over $5 million
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None
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The CDSC will not apply to CDSC Class A Shares held for longer than four years.
Each time you place a request to redeem shares, the Trust will first redeem any shares in your account that are not subject to a contingent deferred sales charge, and then will redeem shares in your account that are subject to the lowest CDSC rate, unless otherwise instructed. A series of investments may increase the total value of all shares of funds in the Aquila Group of Funds that you own so that subsequent purchases may qualify for a shorter holding period and a lower CDSC rate, as described in the table above, without altering the holding period or CDSC rate for shares acquired when the total value of Aquila Fund Shares you owned was lower.
The Trust will treat all CDSC Class A Share purchases made during a calendar month as if they were made on the first business day of that month at the average cost of all purchases made during that month. Therefore, the four-year holding period will end on the first business day of the 48th calendar month after the date of those purchases. Accordingly, the holding period may, in fact, be almost one month less than the full 48 depending on when your actual purchase was made.
The CDSC will be waived for:
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Redemption following the death of the shareholder or beneficial owner.
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Redemption by the Trust when an account falls below the minimum required account size.
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Redemption by an investor who purchased $250,000 or more without an initial sales charge if the securities dealer of record waived or deferred its commission in connection with the purchase, with notice to the investor and the Trust at the time of purchase.
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The availability of certain sales charge waivers and discounts may depend on whether you purchase your shares directly from the Trust or through a financial intermediary. Please see "Broker-Defined Sales Charge Waiver Policies" in the Prospectus more information.
Broker/Dealer Compensation - CDSC Class A Shares
The Distributor currently intends to pay any dealer executing a purchase of CDSC Class A Shares as follows:
Amount of Purchase
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Amount Distributed to Broker/Dealer as a Percentage of Purchase Price
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$250,000 but less than $2.5 million
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1%
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$2.5 million but less than $5 million
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0.50 of 1%
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$5 million or more
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0.25 of 1%
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Reduced Sales Charges for Certain Purchases of Class A Shares and Class T Shares
Rights of Accumulation
"Single purchasers" may qualify for a reduced sales charge in accordance with the schedule set forth in the Prospectus when making subsequent purchases of Class A Shares. A reduced sales charge applies if the cumulative value (based on purchase cost or current net asset value, whichever is higher) of shares previously purchased together with Class A Shares of your subsequent purchase, amounts to $25,000 or more. Rights of accumulation are not available with respect to purchases of Class T Shares.
Letters of Intent
"Single purchasers" may also qualify for reduced sales charges, in accordance with the same schedule, after a written Letter of Intent (included in the New Account Application) is received by the Distributor. The Letter of Intent confirms that you intend to purchase, with a sales charge, within a thirteen month period, Class A Shares of the Trust through a single selected dealer or the Distributor. Class A Shares of the Trust which you previously purchased, also with a sales charge, and which you still own may also be included in determining the applicable reduction. For more information, including escrow provisions, see the Letter of Intent provisions of the New Account Application. Letters of intent are not available with respect to purchases of Class T Shares.
General
As noted above, availability of certain sales charge waivers and discounts may depend on whether you purchase your shares directly from the Trust or through a financial intermediary. Specific intermediaries may have different policies and procedures regarding the availability of front-end sales load waivers or, if applicable, CDSC waivers, from those set forth below. Please see "Broker-Defined Sales Charge Waiver Policies" in the Prospectus more information.
Class A Shares may be purchased without a sales charge by:
* current and former Trustees and officers of any funds in the Aquila Group of Funds;
* |
the directors, managers, officers and certain employees, former employees and representatives of the Manager, the Distributor, and the sub-adviser of any fund in the Aquila Group of Funds and the parents and/or affiliates of such companies;
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* broker dealers, their officers and employees and other investment professionals;
* |
certain persons connected with firms providing legal, advertising or public relations assistance to the Funds;
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* certain family members of, and plans for the benefit of, the foregoing; and
* |
plans for the benefit of trust or similar clients of banking institutions over which these institutions have full investment authority.
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Purchasers must give written assurance that the purchase is for investment and that the Class A Shares will not be resold except through redemption. Since there may be tax consequences of these purchases, your tax advisor should be consulted.
Class A Shares and Class T Shares may also be issued without a sales charge in a merger, acquisition or exchange offer made pursuant to a plan of reorganization to which the Trust is a party.
The Trust permits the sale of its Class A Shares at prices that reflect the elimination of the sales charge to investors who are members of certain qualified groups.
A qualified group is a group or association that
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(i) |
satisfies uniform criteria which enable the Distributor to realize economies of scale in its costs of distributing shares;
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(ii) |
gives its endorsement or authorization (if it is a group or association) to an investment program to facilitate solicitation of its membership by a broker or dealer; and
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(iii) |
complies with the conditions of purchase that make up an agreement between the Trust and the group, representative or broker or dealer.
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At the time of purchase, the Distributor must receive information sufficient to permit verification that the purchase qualifies for a reduced sales charge, either directly or through a broker or dealer.
Examples of a qualified group include, but are not limited to:
* |
certain wrap accounts, asset allocation programs or other fee-based arrangements for the benefit of clients of investment professionals or other financial intermediaries; and
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* |
certain retirement plans that are part of a retirement plan or platform offered by banks, broker-dealers, financial advisors or insurance companies, or serviced by recordkeepers.
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Class A Shares may be purchased without a sales charge by investors who purchase shares through a self-directed brokerage account program offered by an intermediary that has entered into an agreement with the fund's distributor. Intermediaries offering such programs may or may not charge transaction fees.
Class A purchases at net asset value may be available to group employer-sponsored retirement plans. Waivers for group employer-sponsored retirement plans do not apply to traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, SEPs, SARSEPs, SIMPLE IRAs, KEOGHs, individual 401(k) or individual 403(b) plans, or to shares held in commission-based broker-dealer accounts.
The foregoing sales charge waivers are generally available for qualified purchases through all financial intermediaries that offer shares of the Trust, except as set forth under "Broker-Defined Sales Charge Waiver Policies" in the Prospectus.
Investors may exchange securities acceptable to the Manager and Sub-Adviser for shares of the Trust. The Trust believes such exchange provides a means by which holders of certain securities may invest in the Trust without the expense of selling the securities in the open market. The investor should furnish, either in writing or by FAX or e-mail, to the Manager a list with a full and exact description (including CUSIP numbers) of all securities proposed for exchange. The Manager will then notify the investor as to whether the securities are acceptable and, if so, will send a letter of transmittal to be completed and signed by the investor. The Manager has the right to reject all or any part of the securities offered for exchange. The securities must then be sent in proper form for transfer with the letter of transmittal to the Custodian of the Trust's assets. The investor must certify that there are no legal or contractual restrictions on the free transfers and sale of the securities. Upon receipt by the Custodian of the securities and all required documents for transfer, the securities will be valued as of the close of business on that day in the same manner as the Trust's portfolio securities are valued each day. Shares of the Trust having an equal net asset value as of the close of the same day will be registered in the investor's name. Applicable sales charges, if any, will apply, but there is no charge for making the exchange and no brokerage commission on the securities accepted, although applicable stock transfer taxes, if any, may be deducted. The exchange of securities by the investor pursuant to this offer may constitute a taxable transaction and may result in a gain or loss for Federal income tax purposes. The tax treatment experienced by investors may vary depending upon individual circumstances. Each investor should consult a tax adviser to determine Federal, state and local tax consequences.
Additional Compensation for Financial Intermediaries
The Distributor and/or its related companies may pay compensation out of their own assets to certain broker/dealers and other financial intermediaries ("financial advisors") above and beyond sales commissions, 12b-1 or certain service fees and certain recordkeeping/sub-transfer agency fees paid by the Trust, in connection with the sale, servicing or retention of Trust shares. This compensation, which may be significant in dollar amounts to the Distributor and/or its related companies, could create an incentive for a financial advisor to sell Trust shares. You should ask your financial advisor to obtain more information on how this additional compensation may have influenced your advisor's recommendation of the Trust.
Such additional compensation (which is sometimes referred to as "revenue sharing") is paid out of the Distributor's (or related company's) own resources, without additional charge to the Trust or its shareholders, although such resources may include profits derived from services provided to the Trust. Additional cash payments may be based on a percentage of gross sales, a percentage of assets or number of accounts maintained or serviced by the financial advisor, and/or a fixed dollar amount, and is different for different financial advisors.
At its discretion, the Distributor determines whether to pay additional compensation and the amount of any such payments based on factors the Distributor deems relevant. Factors considered by the Distributor generally include the financial advisor's reputation, training of the financial advisor's sales force, quality of service, ability to attract and retain assets for the Trust, expertise in distributing a
particular class of shares of the Trust, and/or access to target markets. The Distributor (or related companies) may pay additional compensation for services with respect to the Trust and other funds in the Aquila Group of Funds without allocation for services provided to particular funds.
Typically, additional compensation in the form of education and/or marketing support payments is made towards one or more of the following:
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assistance in training and educating the financial advisor's personnel;
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·
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participation in the financial advisor's conferences and meetings;
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·
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advertising of the Trust's shares;
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·
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payment of travel expenses, including lodging, for attendance at sales seminars by qualifying registered representatives;
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·
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other incentives or financial assistance to financial advisors in connection with promotional, training or educational seminars or conferences;
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·
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shareholder education events;
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·
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exhibit space or sponsorships at regional or national events of financial intermediaries;
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·
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participation in special financial advisor programs;
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·
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continued availability of the Trust's shares through the financial advisor's automated trading platform;
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·
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access to the financial advisor's sales representatives and national sales management personnel by the Distributor or Trust representatives;
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·
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inclusion of the Trust and/or the Aquila Group of Funds on preferred or recommended sales lists; and
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·
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other comparable expenses at the discretion of the Distributor.
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The financial advisors to whom the Distributor may pay, or has paid additional compensation in the form of education and/or marketing support payments since January 1, 2004, include American Enterprise Investment, Bank One Securities Corp. (now JP Morgan Chase Bank and/or JP Morgan Chase Securities), Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., DA Davidson & Co., Edward D. Jones & Co., L.P., Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, First Federal Savings Bank, Forbes Financial, Invest Financial Corporation, J.J.B. Hilliard, W.L. Lyons Inc., Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, LPL Financial, Larry Heller & Associates, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc., Morgan Stanley, National Financial Services LLC, Next Financial, Pershing LLC, Preferred Financial Group, RBC Capital Markets, Raymond James and Associates, Inc., Sovereign Bank, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc., Stock Yards Bank & Trust Co., The Glenview Trust Co., The Investment Center Inc., UBS Financial Services, US Bancorp Investments, Inc., US Bank Securities, UVEST Investment Services, Inc., Voya Financial Advisors, Waddell & Reed, Wedbush Securities Inc., Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, and Zions Investment Securities Inc.
The Distributor and/or related companies may compensate financial advisors not listed above. The Distributor and/or related companies may enter into additional compensation arrangements or change arrangements at any time without notice.
The Distributor and/or its related companies currently compensate financial advisors on a case by case basis. Any of the foregoing payments to be made by the Distributor may be made instead by the Manager out of its own funds, directly or through the Distributor.
Class F Shares are only available in cases where the intermediary will not receive additional compensation with respect to Class F Shares.
Automatic Withdrawal Plan (Class A Shares Only)
You may establish an Automatic Withdrawal Plan if you own or purchase Class A Shares of the Trust having a net asset value of at least $5,000. The Automatic Withdrawal Plan is not available for Class C Shares, Class F Shares, Class T Shares or Class Y Shares.
Under an Automatic Withdrawal Plan you will receive a monthly or quarterly check in a stated amount, not less than $50. If such a plan is established, all dividends and distributions must be reinvested in your shareholder account. Redemption of shares to make payments under the Automatic Withdrawal Plan will generally give rise to a gain or loss for tax purposes. (See the Automatic Withdrawal Plan provisions of the New Account Application.)
Purchases of additional Class A Shares concurrently with withdrawals are undesirable because of sales charges when purchases are made. Accordingly, you may not maintain an Automatic Withdrawal Plan while simultaneously making regular purchases. While an occasional lump sum investment may be made, such investment should normally be an amount at least equal to three times the annual withdrawal or $5,000, whichever is less.
Share Certificates
The Trust no longer issues share certificates. If you own certificated shares and have lost the certificates, you may incur delay and expense when redeeming the shares.
Reinvestment Privilege (Class A and C Shares Only)
If you reinvest proceeds of a redemption of Class A or Class C Shares within 120 days of the redemption, you will not have to pay any additional sales charge on the reinvestment, and any CDSC deducted upon the redemption will be refunded. You must reinvest in the same class as the shares redeemed. You may exercise this privilege only once a year, unless otherwise approved by the Distributor.
The Distributor will refund to you any CDSC deducted at the time of redemption by adding it to the amount of your reinvestment. The Class C or CDSC Class A Shares purchased upon reinvestment will be deemed to have been outstanding from the date of your original purchase of the redeemed shares, less the period from redemption to reinvestment.
Reinvestment Privileges are not available for Class T Shares.
Exchange Privilege
Shareholders of the Trust have an exchange privilege as set forth below. Exchanges can be made among this Trust and other funds in the Aquila Group of Funds. All exchanges are subject to certain conditions described below.
Generally, you can exchange shares of any class of the Trust for shares of the same class of other funds in the Aquila Group of Funds without the payment of a sales charge or any other fee. The exchange privilege is available to Class Y Shares to the extent that other Aquila-sponsored funds are made available to its customers by your financial intermediary. All exchanges of Class Y Shares must be made through your financial intermediary. There is no exchange privilege for Class T Shares. Call 800-437-1000 for more information on the exchange privilege.
Because excessive trading in Trust shares can be harmful to the Trust and its other shareholders, the right is reserved to revise or terminate the exchange privilege, to limit the number of exchanges or to reject any exchange if (i) the Trust or any of the other Funds in the Aquila Group of Funds believe that it or they would be harmed or be unable to invest effectively or (ii) it or they receive or anticipate receiving simultaneous orders that may significantly affect the Trust or any other fund in the Aquila Group of Funds.
The following important information should be noted:
CDSCs Upon Redemptions of Shares Acquired Through Exchanges. If you exchange shares subject to a CDSC, no CDSC will be imposed at the time of exchange, but the shares you receive in exchange for them will be subject to the applicable CDSC if you redeem them before the requisite holding period (extended, if required) has expired.
If the shares you redeem would have incurred a CDSC if you had not made any exchanges, then the same CDSC will be imposed upon the redemption regardless of the exchanges that have taken place since the original purchase.
The funds in the Aquila Group of Funds reserve the right to reject any exchange into its shares, if shares of the fund into which exchange is desired are not available for sale in your state of residence. The Trust may also modify or terminate this exchange privilege at any time on not less than 60 days' written notice to shareholders.
All exercises of the exchange privilege are subject to the conditions that (i) the shares being acquired are available for sale in your state of residence; (ii) the aggregate net asset value of the shares surrendered for exchange is at least equal to the minimum investment requirements of the investment company whose shares are being acquired; (iii) the ownership of the accounts from which and to which the exchange is made are identical; and (iv) the exchange privilege is available with the share class owned.
The Agent will accept telephone exchange instructions from anyone. To make a telephone exchange, telephone:
800-437-1000 toll-free
Note: The Trust, the Agent, and the Distributor will not be responsible for any losses resulting from unauthorized telephone transactions if the Agent follows reasonable procedures designed to verify the identity of the caller. The Agent will request some or all of the following information: account
name(s) and number, name of the caller, the social security number registered to the account and personal identification. The Agent may also record calls. You should verify the accuracy of confirmation statements immediately upon receipt.
Exchanges will be effected at the relative exchange prices of the shares being exchanged next determined after receipt by the Agent of your exchange request. The exchange prices will be the respective net asset values of the shares.
An exchange is generally treated for Federal tax purposes as a redemption and purchase of shares and will generally result in the realization of a short- or long-term capital gain or loss, depending on the value of the shares received in the exchange, the cost or other tax basis of the shares exchanged and the holding period. Should any capital loss be realized, no representation is made as to its deductibility.
Dividends paid by a fund whose shares you receive in an exchange may be taxable to you. You should consult your tax adviser before acquiring shares of another fund under the exchange privilege arrangement.
If you are considering an exchange into one of the other funds in the Aquila Group of Funds, you should obtain a copy of and carefully read its Prospectus.
Same Fund Exchange Privilege
Certain shareholders may be eligible to exchange their shares for the Trust's Class Y or Class T Shares. If eligible, no sales charges or other charges will apply to any such exchange. Generally, shareholders will not recognize a gain or loss for Federal income tax purposes upon such an exchange. Investors should contact their financial intermediary to learn more about the details of this privilege.
Conversion of Class C Shares
Class C Shares automatically convert to Class A Shares six years after the date of purchase. Conversion of Class C Shares into Class A Shares will be effected at relative net asset values after the sixth anniversary of your purchase of Class C Shares, on the 15th day of the month (or the next business day thereafter), except as noted below. Accordingly, if the sixth anniversary of your purchase of Class C Shares occurs on or after the 15th day of the month, conversion will be effected on the 15th day of the following month. Thus, the holding period applicable to your Class C Shares may be up to five weeks more than the six years depending upon when your actual purchase was made during a month. Because the per share value of Class A Shares may be higher than that of Class C Shares at the time of conversion, you may receive fewer Class A Shares than the number of Class C Shares converted. If you have made one or more exchanges of Class C Shares among the Aquila Group of Funds under the Exchange Privilege, the six-year holding period is deemed to have begun on the date you purchased your original Class C Shares of the Trust or of another of the Aquila Group of Funds.
"Transfer on Death" Registration (Not Available for Class Y Shares)
Each of the funds in the Aquila Group of Funds permits registration of its shares in beneficiary form, subject to the funds' rules governing Transfer on Death ("TOD") registration, if the investor resides in a state that has adopted the Uniform Transfer on Death Security Registration Act (a "TOD State"; for these purposes, Missouri is deemed to be a TOD State). This form of registration allows you to provide that, on your death, your shares are to be transferred to the one or more persons that you specify as beneficiaries. To register shares of the Trust in TOD form, complete the special TOD Registration Request Form and review the Rules Governing TOD Registration; both are available from the Agent or
your broker/dealer. The Rules, which are subject to amendment upon 60 days' notice to TOD account owners, contain important information regarding TOD accounts with the Trust; by opening such an account you agree to be bound by them, and failure to comply with them may result in your shares' not being transferred to your designated beneficiaries. If you open a TOD account with the Trust that is otherwise acceptable but, for whatever reason, neither the Trust nor the Agent receives a properly completed TOD Registration Request Form from you prior to your death, the Trust reserves the right not to honor your TOD designation, in which case your account will become part of your estate.
You are eligible for TOD registration only if, and as long as, you reside in a TOD State. If you open a TOD account and your account address indicates that you do not reside in a TOD State, your TOD registration will be ineffective and the Trust may, in its discretion, either open the account as a regular (non-TOD) account or redeem your shares. Such a redemption may result in a gain or loss to you and may have tax consequences. Similarly, if you open a TOD account while residing in a TOD State and later move to a non-TOD State, your TOD registration will no longer be effective. In both cases, should you die while residing in a non-TOD State the Trust reserves the right not to honor your TOD designation. At the date of this SAI, almost all states are TOD States, but you should consult your tax advisor regarding the circumstances in your state of residence.
An investor in Class F, Class T or Class Y should discuss the availability of TOD registration with the investor's financial intermediary.
Computation of Net Asset Value
The net asset value of the shares of each of the Trust's classes is determined on each day that the New York Stock Exchange is open, as of the scheduled close of regular trading (normally 4:00 p.m., New York time), by dividing the value of the Trust's net assets allocable to each class by the total number of its shares of such class then outstanding. If the New York Stock Exchange closes at another time, the Trust will calculate its net asset value as of the scheduled closing time. Portfolio securities generally are valued on the basis of market valuations furnished by a pricing service, which may use market prices or broker/dealer quotations or a variety of fair valuation techniques and methodologies to determine valuation. Any securities or assets for which pricing services are unable to supply prices, or if the prices supplied are determined to be unreliable are valued at their fair value as determined in good faith under procedures subject to the general supervision and responsibility of the Trust's Board of Trustees.
Purchases and Redemptions of Shares
The Trust has authorized one or more financial intermediaries to receive on its behalf purchase and redemption orders for shares of the Trust; one or more of those financial intermediaries are also authorized to designate other intermediaries to receive purchase and redemption orders on the Trust's behalf. The Trust will be deemed to have received a purchase or redemption order when an authorized financial intermediary or, if applicable, the financial intermediary's authorized designee receives the order. Such orders will be priced at the Trust's net asset value next determined after they are received by the authorized financial intermediary or, if applicable, its authorized designee and accepted by the Trust.
Purchases and Redemptions Through Broker/Dealers
A broker/dealer may charge its customers a processing or service fee in connection with the purchase or redemption of Trust shares. The amount and applicability of such a fee is determined and should be disclosed to its customers by each individual broker/dealer. These processing or service fees are typically fixed, nominal dollar amounts and are in addition to the sales and other charges described in the
Prospectus and this SAI. Your broker/dealer should provide you with specific information about any processing or service fees you will be charged.
Limitation of Redemptions in Kind
The Trust has elected to be governed by Rule 18f-1 under the 1940 Act, pursuant to which the Trust is obligated to redeem shares solely in cash up to the lesser of $250,000 or 1 percent of the net asset value of the Trust during any 90-day period for any one shareholder. Should redemptions by any shareholder exceed such limitation, the Trust will have the option of redeeming the excess in cash or in kind. If shares are redeemed in kind, the redeeming shareholder might incur brokerage costs in converting the assets into cash. The method of valuing securities used to make redemptions in kind will be the same as the method of valuing portfolio securities described under "Net Asset Value Per Share" in the Prospectus, and such valuation will be made as of the same time the redemption price is determined.
Disclosure of Portfolio Holdings
Under Trust policies, the Manager publicly discloses the complete schedule of the Trust's portfolio holdings, as reported at the end of each calendar quarter, generally by the 15th day after the end of each calendar quarter. Such information will remain accessible until the next schedule is made publicly available. It may also publicly disclose other portfolio holdings as of a specified date. You may obtain a copy of the Trust's schedule of portfolio holdings for the most recently completed period by accessing the information on the Trust's website at www.aquilafunds.com.
In addition, the Manager may share the Trust's non-public portfolio holdings information with pricing services and other service providers to the Trust who require access to such information in order to fulfill their contractual duties to the Trust. The Manager may also disclose non-public information regarding the Trust's portfolio holdings to certain mutual fund analysts and rating and tracking entities or to other entities that have a legitimate business purpose in receiving such information on a more frequent basis. Exceptions to the frequency and recipients of the disclosure may be made only with the advance authorization of the Trust's Chief Compliance Officer upon a determination that such disclosure serves a legitimate business purpose and is in the best interests of the Trust and will be reported to the Board of Trustees at the next regularly scheduled board meeting. Any permitted release of non-public holdings information is provided in accordance with the then-current policy on approved methods or arrangements for communicating confidential information.
Whenever portfolio holdings disclosure made pursuant to these procedures involves a possible conflict of interest between the Trust's shareholders and the Trust's Manager, Sub-Adviser, Distributor or any affiliated person of the Trust, the disclosure may not be made unless a majority of the independent Trustees or a majority of a board committee consisting solely of independent Trustees approves such disclosure. The Trust, the Manager and the Sub-Adviser shall not enter into any arrangement providing for the disclosure of non-public portfolio holdings information for the receipt of compensation or benefit of any kind. Any material changes to the policies and procedures for the disclosure of portfolio holdings will be reported to the Board on at least an annual basis.
The Trust currently provides holdings information to the following service providers with which it has ongoing relationships:
|
1. |
Intercontinental Exchange (pricing services) on a daily basis with no lag;
|
|
2. |
Tait, Weller & Baker LLP, its independent registered public accounting firm, as soon as practicable following the Fund's fiscal year-end and on an as-needed basis;
|
|
3. |
Bloomberg (tracking and pricing entity) on a daily basis with no lag;
|
|
4. |
Investor Tools (portfolio analytics service) on a daily basis with no lag; and
|
|
5. |
Fitch Group, its financial printer, as soon as practicable following each fiscal quarter-end.
|
The Trust also currently provides holdings information to Morningstar and Lipper Analytical Services (analysts, rating and tracking entities) on a quarterly basis with a 15-day lag.
Additional Tax Information
The following is a summary of certain material U.S. Federal income tax considerations affecting the Trust and its shareholders. The discussion is very general. Current and prospective shareholders are therefore urged to consult their own tax advisers with respect to the specific Federal, state, local and foreign tax consequences of investing in the Trust. The summary is based on the laws in effect on the date of this SAI and existing judicial and administrative interpretations thereof, all of which are subject to change, possibly with retroactive effect.
The Trust and Its Investments
The Trust has elected to be treated, and intends to qualify each year, as a "regulated investment company" or "RIC" under Subchapter M of the Code. To so qualify, the Trust must, among other things: (a) derive at least 90% of its gross income in each taxable year from dividends, interest, payments with respect to certain securities loans, and gains from the sale or other disposition of stock or securities or foreign currencies, or other income (including, but not limited to, gains from options, futures or forward contracts) derived with respect to its business of investing in such stock, securities or currencies, and net income derived from interests in "qualified publicly traded partnerships" (i.e., partnerships that are traded on an established securities market or tradable on a secondary market, other than partnerships that derive 90% of their income from interest, dividends, capital gains, and other traditionally permitted mutual fund income); and (b) diversify its holdings so that, at the end of each quarter of the Trust's taxable year, (i) at least 50% of the market value of the Trust's assets is represented by cash, securities of other regulated investment companies, U.S. Government securities and other securities, with such other securities limited, in respect of any one issuer, to an amount not greater than 5% of the Trust's assets and not greater than 10% of the outstanding voting securities of such issuer and (ii) not more than 25% of the value of its assets is invested in the securities (other than U.S. Government securities or securities of other regulated investment companies) of any one issuer, in the securities (other than the securities of other regulated investment companies) of any two or more issuers that the Trust controls and that are determined to be engaged in the same or similar trades or businesses or related trades or businesses, or in the securities of one or more "qualified publicly traded partnerships."
As a regulated investment company, the Trust will not be subject to U.S. Federal income tax on the portion of its taxable investment income and capital gains that it distributes to its shareholders, provided that it satisfies a minimum distribution requirement. To satisfy the minimum distribution requirement, the Trust must distribute to its shareholders at least the sum of (i) 90% of its "investment company taxable income" for the taxable year (i.e., generally, the taxable income of a RIC other than its net capital gain, plus or minus certain other adjustments), computed without regard to the dividends-paid deduction, and (ii) 90% of its net tax-exempt income for the taxable year. The Trust will be subject to income tax at regular corporate tax rates on any taxable income or gains that it does not distribute to its shareholders.
If, for any taxable year, the Trust were to fail to qualify as a regulated investment company under the Code or were to fail to meet the distribution requirement, it would be taxed in the same manner as an ordinary corporation, and distributions to its shareholders would not be deductible by the Trust in computing its taxable income. In addition, in the event of a failure to qualify, the Trust's distributions, to the extent derived from current or accumulated earnings and profits, including any distributions of net tax-exempt income and net long-term capital gains, would be taxable to shareholders as ordinary dividend income for Federal income tax purposes. However, such dividends would be eligible, subject to any generally applicable limitations, (i) to be treated as qualified dividend income in the case of shareholders taxed as individuals and (ii) for the dividends received deduction in the case of corporate shareholders. Moreover, if the Trust were to fail to qualify as a regulated investment company in any year, it would be required to pay out its earnings and profits accumulated in that year in order to qualify again as a regulated investment company. Under certain circumstances, the Trust may cure a failure to qualify as a regulated investment company, but in order to do so the Trust may incur significant Trust-level taxes and may be forced to dispose of certain assets. If the Trust failed to qualify as a regulated investment company for a period greater than two taxable years, the Trust would generally be required to recognize any net built-in gains with respect to certain of its assets upon a disposition of such assets within ten years of qualifying as a regulated investment company in a subsequent year.
The Code imposes a 4% nondeductible excise tax on the Trust to the extent it does not distribute by the end of any calendar year at least the sum of (i) 98% of its ordinary income for that year and (ii) 98.2% of its capital gain net income (both long-term and short-term) for the one-year period ending, as a general rule, on October 31 of that year. For this purpose, however, any ordinary income or capital gain net income that is retained by the Trust and subject to corporate income tax will be considered to have been distributed by year-end. In addition, the minimum amounts that must be distributed in any year to avoid the excise tax will be increased or decreased to reflect any under-distribution or over-distribution, as the case may be, from the previous year. The Trust anticipates that it will pay such dividends and will make such distributions as are necessary to avoid the application of this excise tax.
The Trust's transactions in zero coupon securities, foreign currencies, forward contracts, options and futures contracts (including options and futures contracts on foreign currencies), if any, will be subject to special provisions of the Code (including provisions relating to "hedging transactions" and "straddles") that, among other things, may affect the character of gains and losses realized by the Trust (i.e., may affect whether gains or losses are ordinary or capital), accelerate recognition of income to the Trust, and defer Trust losses. These rules could therefore affect the character, amount and timing of distributions to shareholders. These provisions also (a) will require the Trust to "mark to market" certain types of the positions in its portfolio (i.e., treat them as if they were closed out at the end of each year) and (b) may cause the Trust to recognize income prior to the receipt of cash with which to pay dividends or make distributions in amounts necessary to satisfy the distribution requirements for avoiding income and excise taxes. In order to distribute this income and avoid a tax on the Trust, the Trust might be required to liquidate portfolio securities that it might otherwise have continued to hold, potentially resulting in additional taxable gain or loss. The Trust will monitor its transactions, will make the appropriate tax elections and will make the appropriate entries in its books and records when it acquires any zero coupon securities, foreign currency, forward contract, option, futures contract or hedged investment in order to mitigate the effect of these rules and maintain qualification for treatment as a regulated investment company.
The Trust may be required to treat amounts as taxable income or gain, subject to the distribution requirements referred to above, even though no corresponding amounts of cash are received concurrently, as a result of (1) mark-to-market rules, constructive sale rules or rules applicable to certain options, futures or forward contracts, or "appreciated financial positions" or (2) tax rules applicable to debt
obligations acquired with "original issue discount," including zero-coupon or deferred payment bonds and pay-in-kind debt obligations, or to market discount if an election is made with respect to such market discount. In order to distribute this income and avoid a tax on the Trust, the Trust might be required to liquidate portfolio securities that it might otherwise have continued to hold, potentially resulting in additional taxable gain or loss. The Trust might also meet the distribution requirements by borrowing the necessary cash, thereby incurring interest expense.
For U.S. Federal income tax purposes, net short- and long-term capital losses may generally be carried forward without limit. Carryforwards are available to offset future net realized gains on securities transactions to the extent provided for in the Code. Under certain circumstances, the Trust may elect to treat certain losses as though they were incurred on the first day of the taxable year immediately following the taxable year in which they were actually incurred.
At March 31, 2018, the Trust had net short-term and long-term capital loss carryforwards as follows:
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|
Carryforward
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|
Character
|
$923,852
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|
Short-term
|
$0
|
|
Long-term
|
Taxation of U.S. Shareholders
Dividends and other distributions by the Trust are generally treated under the Code as received by the shareholders at the time the dividend or distribution is made. However, if any dividend or distribution is declared by the Trust in October, November or December of any calendar year and payable to shareholders of record on a specified date in such a month but is actually paid during the following January, such dividend or distribution will be deemed to have been received by each shareholder on December 31 of the year in which the dividend was declared.
The Trust intends to distribute annually to its shareholders substantially all of its investment company taxable income (computed without regard to the dividends-paid deduction), and any net realized long-term capital gains in excess of net realized short-term capital losses (including any capital loss carryforwards). If, however, the Trust retains for investment an amount equal to all or a portion of its net long-term capital gains in excess of its net short-term capital losses (including any capital loss carryforwards), it will be subject to a corporate tax on the amount retained. In that event, the Trust will designate such retained amounts as undistributed capital gains in a notice to its shareholders who (a) will be required to include in income for U.S. Federal income tax purposes, as long-term capital gains, their proportionate shares of the undistributed amount, (b) will be entitled to credit their proportionate shares of the income tax paid by the Trust on the undistributed amount against their U.S. Federal income tax liabilities, if any, and to claim refunds to the extent their credits exceed their liabilities, if any, and (c) will be entitled to increase their tax basis, for U.S. Federal income tax purposes, in their shares by an amount equal to the excess of the amount of undistributed net capital gain included in their respective income over their respective income tax credits. Organizations or persons not subject to U.S. Federal income tax on such capital gains will be entitled to a refund of their pro rata share of such taxes paid by the Trust upon timely filing appropriate returns or claims for refund with the Internal Revenue Service (the "IRS").
Exempt-interest dividends paid by the Trust are exempt from regular Federal income taxes. Distributions of taxable net investment income and net realized short-term capital gains are taxable to a U.S. shareholder as ordinary income, whether paid in cash or in shares. Distributions of net capital gain (i.e., the excess of net long-term capital gain over net short-term capital loss), if any, that the Trust reports
as capital gain dividends are taxable as long-term capital gains, whether paid in cash or in shares, and regardless of how long a shareholder has held shares of the Trust. None of the Trust's distributions are expected to be eligible for the dividends-received deduction for corporate shareholders or for any favorable tax rate that may apply to "qualified dividend income" in the hands of an individual shareholder.
Dividends and distributions from the Trust (other than exempt-interest dividends) and net gains from redemptions of Trust shares are generally taken into account in determining a shareholder's "net investment income" for purposes of the Medicare contribution tax applicable to certain individuals, estates and trusts.
Certain tax-exempt educational institutions will be subject to a 1.4% tax on net investment income. For these purposes, certain dividends (other than exempt-interest dividends) and capital gain distributions, and certain gains from the disposition of Trust shares (among other categories of income), are generally taken into account in computing a shareholder's net investment income.
Distributions in excess of the Trust's current and accumulated earnings and profits will, as to each shareholder, be treated as a tax-free return of capital to the extent of a shareholder's basis in his or her shares of the Trust, and as a capital gain thereafter (if the shareholder holds his or her shares of the Trust as capital assets). Each shareholder who receives distributions in the form of additional shares will generally be treated for U.S. Federal income tax purposes as receiving a distribution in an amount equal to the amount of money that the shareholder would have received if he or she had instead elected to receive cash distributions. The shareholder's aggregate tax basis in shares of the Trust will be increased by such amount.
Investors considering buying shares just prior to a capital gain distribution should be aware that, although the price of shares purchased at that time may reflect the amount of the forthcoming distribution, such dividend or distribution may nevertheless be taxable to them.
Because the Trust will distribute exempt-interest dividends, interest on indebtedness incurred by shareholders, directly or indirectly, to purchase or carry shares in the Trust is not deductible for U.S. Federal income tax purposes. Investors receiving social security or railroad retirement benefits should be aware that exempt-interest dividends may, under certain circumstances, cause a portion of such benefits to be subject to Federal income tax. Furthermore, a portion of any exempt-interest dividend paid by the Trust that represents income derived from certain revenue or private activity bonds held by the Trust may not retain its tax-exempt status in the hands of a shareholder who is a "substantial user" of a facility financed by such bonds, or a "related person" thereof. Moreover, some or all of the exempt-interest dividends distributed by the Trust may be a specific preference item, or a component of an adjustment item, for purposes of the Federal alternative minimum tax.
Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors as to whether they are (i) "substantial users" with respect to a facility or "related" to such users within the meaning of the Code or (ii) subject to a Federal alternative minimum tax, the Federal "branch profits" tax, or the Federal "excess net passive income" tax.
Sales of Shares
Upon the sale or exchange of his or her shares (other than an exchange for shares of another share class of the same Fund), a shareholder will generally recognize a taxable gain or loss equal to the difference between the amount realized and his or her basis in the shares. A redemption of shares by the Trust will normally be treated as a sale for this purpose. Such gain or loss will be treated as capital gain or
loss if the shares are capital assets in the shareholder's hands, and will be long-term capital gain or loss if the shares are held for more than one year and short-term capital gain or loss if the shares are held for one year or less. Any loss realized on a sale or exchange will be disallowed to the extent the shares disposed of are replaced, including replacement through the reinvesting of dividends and capital gains distributions in the Trust, within a 61-day period beginning 30 days before and ending 30 days after the disposition of the shares. In such a case, the basis of the shares acquired will be increased to reflect the disallowed loss. Any loss realized by a shareholder on the sale of Trust shares held by the shareholder for six months or less will be treated for U.S. Federal income tax purposes as a long-term capital loss to the extent of any distributions or deemed distributions of long-term capital gains received by the shareholder (including amounts credited to the shareholder as undistributed capital gains) with respect to such shares.
If a shareholder incurs a sales charge in acquiring shares of the Trust, disposes of those shares within 90 days and then acquires, before February 1 of the calendar year following the calendar year of the disposition, shares in a mutual fund for which the otherwise applicable sales charge is reduced by reason of a reinvestment right (e.g., an exchange privilege), the original sales charge will not be taken into account in computing gain or loss on the original shares to the extent the subsequent sales charge is reduced. Instead, the disregarded portion of the original sales charge will be added to the tax basis in the newly acquired shares. Furthermore, the same rule also applies to a disposition of the newly acquired shares made within 90 days of the second acquisition. This provision prevents a shareholder from immediately deducting the sales charge by shifting his or her investment within a family of mutual funds.
If a shareholder recognizes a loss with respect to the Trust's shares of $2 million or more for an individual shareholder or $10 million or more for a corporate shareholder (or certain greater amounts over a combination of years), the shareholder must file with the IRS a disclosure statement on IRS Form 8886. Direct shareholders of portfolio securities are in many cases excepted from this reporting requirement, but under current guidance, shareholders of a regulated investment company are not excepted. The fact that a loss is so reportable does not affect the legal determination of whether the taxpayer's treatment of the loss is proper.
Backup Withholding
The Trust may be required in certain circumstances to apply backup withholding on dividends (including exempt-interest dividends), distributions and redemption proceeds payable to non-corporate shareholders who fail to provide the Trust with their correct taxpayer identification numbers or to make required certifications, or who have been notified by the IRS that they are subject to backup withholding. The backup withholding rate is currently 24%. Backup withholding is not an additional tax and any amount withheld may be credited against a shareholder's U.S. Federal income tax liabilities.
Notices
Shareholders will receive, if appropriate, various written notices after the close of the Trust's taxable year regarding the U.S. Federal income tax status of certain dividends, distributions and redemption proceeds that were paid (or that are treated as having been paid) by the Trust to its shareholders during the preceding taxable year.
Non-U.S. Shareholders
Ordinary dividends (other than certain dividends reported by the Trust as (i) interest-related dividends, to the extent such dividends are derived from the Trust's "qualified net interest income," or (ii) short-term capital gain dividends, to the extent such dividends are derived from the Trust's "qualified short-term gain") and certain other payments made by the Trust to non-U.S. shareholders are generally
subject to Federal withholding tax at a 30% rate or such lower rate as may be determined in accordance with any applicable treaty. "Qualified net interest income" is the Trust's net income derived from U.S.-source interest and original issue discount, subject to certain exceptions and limitations. "Qualified short-term gain" generally means the excess of the net short-term capital gain of the Trust for the taxable year over its net long-term capital loss, if any. In order to obtain a reduced rate of withholding, a non-U.S. shareholder will be required to provide an IRS Form W-8BEN or similar form certifying its entitlement to benefits under a treaty. This 30% withholding tax generally does not apply to exempt-interest dividends, capital gain dividends or redemption proceeds. The withholding tax does not apply to regular dividends paid to a non-U.S. shareholder who provides an IRS Form W-8ECI, certifying that the dividends are effectively connected with the non-U.S. shareholder's conduct of a trade or business within the United States. Instead, the effectively connected dividends will be subject to regular U.S. Federal income tax as if the non-U.S. shareholder were a U.S. shareholder. A non-U.S. corporation receiving effectively connected dividends may also be subject to additional "branch profits tax" imposed at a rate of 30% (or a lower treaty rate). A non-U.S. shareholder who fails to provide an IRS Form W-8BEN or other applicable form may be subject to backup withholding at the appropriate rate. Backup withholding will not be applied to payments that have already been subject to the 30% withholding tax. The 30% withholding tax generally will not apply to exempt-interest dividends, to distributions of the excess of net long-term capital gains over net short-term capital losses or to redemption proceeds.
Unless certain non-U.S. entities that hold Trust shares comply with IRS requirements that will generally require them to report information regarding U.S. persons investing in, or holding accounts with, such entities, a 30% withholding tax may apply to Trust distributions (other than exempt-interest dividends) payable to such entities and, after December 31, 2018, to redemptions and certain capital gain dividends payable to such entities. A non-U.S. shareholder may be exempt from the withholding described in this paragraph under an applicable intergovernmental agreement between the U.S. and a foreign government, provided that the shareholder and the applicable foreign government comply with the terms of such agreement. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisers on these matters and on state, local, foreign and other applicable tax laws.
Basis Reporting
The Trust or your broker will report to the IRS the amount of proceeds that a shareholder receives from a redemption or exchange of Trust shares. For redemptions or exchanges of shares acquired on or after January 1, 2012, the Trust will also report the shareholder's basis in those shares and the character of any gain or loss that the shareholder realizes on the redemption or exchange (i.e., short-term or long-term), and certain related tax information. For purposes of calculating and reporting basis, shares acquired prior to January 1, 2012 and shares acquired on or after January 1, 2012 will generally be treated as held in separate accounts. If a shareholder has a different basis for different shares of the Trust held in the same account (e.g., if a shareholder purchased Trust shares held in the same account when the shares were at different prices), the Trust will calculate the basis of the share sold using its default method unless the shareholder has properly elected to use a different method. The Trust's default method for calculating basis is the average basis method, under which the basis per share is reported as an average of the bases of the shareholder's Trust shares in the account.
Shareholders may instruct the Trust to use a method other than average basis for an account, but the application of that other method will depend on whether shares have previously been redeemed or exchanged. Shareholders who hold shares through a broker should contact the broker for further assistance or for information regarding the broker's default method for calculating basis and procedures for electing to use an alternative method. Prior to redeeming shares, shareholders should consult their tax advisers concerning the tax consequences of applying the average basis method or electing another method of basis calculation.
The foregoing is only a summary of certain material U.S. Federal income tax consequences (and, where noted, state and local tax consequences) affecting the Trust and its shareholders. Current and prospective shareholders are advised to consult their own tax advisers with respect to the particular tax consequences to them of an investment in the Trust.
Underwriters
The Distributor acts as the Trust's principal underwriter in the continuous public offering of all of the Trust's classes of shares. The Distributor is not obligated to sell a specific number of shares. Under the Distribution Agreement, the Distributor is responsible for the payment of certain printing and distribution costs relating to prospectuses and reports as well as the costs of supplemental sales literature, advertising and other promotional activities. Payments of the amounts listed below for the Trust's fiscal year ended March 31, 2018 were as follows
Name of Principal Underwriter
|
Net Underwriting Discounts and Commissions
|
Compensation on Redemptions and Repurchases
|
Brokerage Commissions
|
Other
Compensation
|
Aquila Distributors LLC
|
$76,347
|
None
|
None
|
None*
|
*Amounts paid to the Distributor under the Trust's Distribution Plan are for compensation.
APPENDIX A
DESCRIPTION OF SECURITIES RATINGS
The ratings of Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Standard & Poor's Ratings Group and Fitch Ratings represent their opinions as to the quality of various debt obligations. It should be emphasized, however, that ratings are not absolute standards of quality. Consequently, debt obligations with the same maturity, coupon and rating may have different yields while debt obligations of the same maturity and coupon with different ratings may have the same yield. As described by the rating agencies, ratings are generally given to securities at the time of issuances. While the rating agencies may from time to time revise such ratings, they undertake no obligation to do so.
Description of Moody's Investors Service, Inc.'s Long-Term Obligation Ratings:
Moody's long-term ratings are opinions of the relative credit risk of financial obligations with an original maturity of one year or more. They address the possibility that a financial obligation will not be honored as promised. Such ratings use Moody's Global Scale and reflect both the likelihood of default and any financial loss suffered in the event of default.
Aaa—Obligations rated Aaa are judged to be of the highest quality, with minimal credit risk.
Aa—Obligations rated Aa are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low credit risk.
A—Obligations rated A are considered upper-medium grade and are subject to low credit risk.
Baa—Obligations rated Baa are subject to moderate credit risk. They are considered medium grade and as such may possess certain speculative characteristics.
Ba—Obligations rated Ba are judged to have speculative elements and are subject to substantial credit risk.
B—Obligations rated B are considered speculative and are subject to high credit risk.
Caa—Obligations rated Caa are judged to be of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk.
Ca—Obligations rated Ca are highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery of principal and interest.
C—Obligations rated C are the lowest rated class and are typically in default, with little prospect for recovery of principal or interest.
Note : Moody's appends numerical modifiers "1", "2" and "3" to each generic rating classification from "Aa" through "Caa." The modifier "1" indicates that the obligation ranks in the higher end of its generic rating category; the modifier "2" indicates a mid-range ranking; and the modifier "3" indicates a ranking in the lower end of that generic rating category.
Description of Moody's Investors Service, Inc.'s Short-Term Obligation Ratings:
Moody's short-term ratings are opinions of the ability of issuers to honor short-term financial obligations. Ratings may be assigned to issuers, short-term programs or to individual short-term debt instruments. Such obligations generally have an original maturity not exceeding thirteen months, unless explicitly noted.
Moody's employs the following designations to indicate the relative repayment ability of rated issuers:
P-1—Issuers (or supporting institutions) rated Prime-1 have a superior ability to repay short-term debt obligations.
P-2—Issuers (or supporting institutions) rated Prime-2 have a strong ability to repay short-term debt obligations.
P-3—Issuers (or supporting institutions) rated Prime-3 have an acceptable ability to repay short-term obligations.
NP—Issuers (or supporting institutions) rated Not Prime do not fall within any of the Prime rating categories.
Note : Canadian issuers rated P-1 or P-2 have their short-term ratings enhanced by the senior-most long-term rating of the issuer, its guarantor or support-provider.
Description of Moody's Investors Service, Inc.'s U.S. Municipal Ratings:
U.S. Municipal Short-Term Obligation Ratings:
There are three rating categories for short-term municipal obligations that are considered investment grade. These ratings are designated as Municipal Investment Grade ("MIG") and are divided into three levels–MIG 1 through MIG 3. In addition, those short-term obligations that are of speculative quality are designated "SG," or speculative grade. MIG ratings expire at the maturity of the obligation.
MIG 1—This designation denotes superior credit quality. Excellent protection is afforded by established cash flows, highly reliable liquidity support, or demonstrated broad-based access to the market for refinancing.
MIG 2—This designation denotes strong credit quality. Margins of protection are ample, although not as large as in the preceding group.
MIG 3—This designation denotes acceptable credit quality. Liquidity and cash-flow protection may be narrow, and market access for refinancing is likely to be less well-established.
SG—This designation denotes speculative-grade credit quality. Debt instruments in this category may lack sufficient margins of protection.
U.S. Municipal Demand Obligation Ratings:
In the case of variable rate demand obligations ("VRDOs"), a two-component rating is assigned; a long or short-term debt rating and a demand obligation rating. The first element represents Moody's evaluation of the degree of risk associated with scheduled principal and interest payments. The second element represents Moody's evaluation of the degree of risk associated with the ability to receive purchase price upon demand ("demand feature"), using a variation of the MIG rating scale, the Variable Municipal Investment Grade or VMIG rating.
When either the long- or short-term aspect of a VRDO is not rated, that piece is designated NR, e.g., Aaa/NR or NR/VMIG 1. VMIG rating expirations are a function of each issue's specific structural or credit features.
VMIG 1—This designation denotes superior credit quality. Excellent protection is afforded by the superior short-term credit strength of the liquidity provider and structural and legal protections that ensure the timely payment of purchase price upon demand.
VMIG 2—This designation denotes strong credit quality. Good protection is afforded by the strong short-term credit strength of the liquidity provider and structural and legal protections that ensure the timely payment of purchase price upon demand.
VMIG 3—This designation denotes acceptable credit quality. Adequate protection is afforded by the satisfactory short-term credit strength of the liquidity provider and structural and legal protections that ensure the timely payment of purchase price upon demand.
SG—This designation denotes speculative-grade credit quality. Demand features rated in this category may be supported by a liquidity provider that does not have an investment grade short-term rating or may lack the structural and/or legal protections necessary to ensure the timely payment of purchase price upon demand.
Description of Standard & Poor's Ratings Group's Long-Term Issue Credit Ratings:
Long-term issue credit ratings are based, in varying degrees, on Standard & Poor's analysis of the following considerations: (1) likelihood of payment-capacity and willingness of the obligor to meet its financial commitment on an obligation in accordance with the terms of the obligation; (2) nature of and provisions of the obligation; and (3) protection afforded by, and relative position of, the obligation in the event of bankruptcy, reorganization, or other arrangement under the laws of bankruptcy and other laws affecting creditors' rights.
Issue ratings are an assessment of default risk, but may incorporate an assessment of relative seniority or ultimate recovery in the event of default. Junior obligations are typically rated lower than senior obligations, to reflect the lower priority in bankruptcy, as noted above. (Such differentiation may apply when an entity has both senior and subordinated obligations, secured and unsecured obligations, or operating company and holding company obligations.)
AAA—An obligation rated 'AAA' has the highest rating assigned by Standard & Poor's. The obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is extremely strong.
AA—An obligation rated 'AA' differs from the highest-rated obligations only to a small degree. The obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is very strong.
A—An obligation rated 'A' is somewhat more susceptible to the adverse effects of changes in circumstances and economic conditions than obligations in higher-rated categories. However, the obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is still strong.
BBB—An obligation rated 'BBB' exhibits adequate protection parameters. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.
BB, B, CCC, CC, and C—Obligations rated 'BB', 'B', 'CCC', 'CC', and 'C' are regarded as having significant speculative characteristics. 'BB' indicates the least degree of speculation and 'C' the highest.
While such obligations will likely have some quality and protective characteristics, these may be outweighed by large uncertainties or major exposures to adverse conditions.
BB—An obligation rated 'BB' is less vulnerable to nonpayment than other speculative issues. However, it faces major ongoing uncertainties or exposure to adverse business, financial, or economic conditions, which could lead to the obligor's inadequate capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.
B—An obligation rated 'B' is more vulnerable to nonpayment than obligations rated 'BB', but the obligor currently has the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation. Adverse business, financial, or economic conditions will likely impair the obligor's capacity or willingness to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.
CCC—An obligation rated 'CCC' is currently vulnerable to nonpayment, and is dependent upon favorable business, financial, and economic conditions for the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation. In the event of adverse business, financial, or economic conditions, the obligor is not likely to have the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.
CC—An obligation rated 'CC' is currently highly vulnerable to nonpayment.
C—A 'C' rating is assigned to obligations that are currently highly vulnerable to nonpayment, obligations that have payment arrearages allowed by the terms of the documents, or obligations of an issuer that is the subject of a bankruptcy petition or similar action which have not experienced a payment default. Among others, the 'C' rating may be assigned to subordinated debt, preferred stock or other obligations on which cash payments have been suspended in accordance with the instrument's terms or when preferred stock is the subject of a distressed exchange offer, whereby some or all of the issue is either repurchased for an amount of cash or replaced by other instruments having a total value that is less than par.
D—An obligation rated 'D' is in payment default. The 'D' rating category is used when payments on an obligation, including a regulatory capital instrument, are not made on the date due even if the applicable grace period has not expired, unless Standard & Poor's believes that such payments will be made during such grace period. The 'D' rating also will be used upon the filing of a bankruptcy petition or the taking of a similar action if payments on an obligation are jeopardized. An obligation's rating is lowered to 'D' upon completion of a distressed exchange offer, whereby some or all of the issue is either repurchased for an amount of cash or replaced by other instruments having a total value that is less than par.
Plus (+) or Minus (–): The ratings from 'AA' to 'CCC' may be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (–) sign to show relative standing within the major rating categories.
NR: This indicates that no rating has been requested, that there is insufficient information on which to base a rating, or that Standard & Poor's does not rate a particular obligation as a matter of policy.
Description of Standard & Poor's Ratings Group's Short-Term Issue Credit Ratings:
Short-term ratings are generally assigned to those obligations considered short-term in the relevant market. In the U.S., for example, that means obligations with an original maturity date of no more than 365 days—including commercial paper. Short-term ratings are also used to indicate the creditworthiness of an obligor with respect to put features on long-term obligations. The result is a dual rating, in which the short-term rating addresses the put feature, in addition to the usual long-term rating.
A-1—A short-term obligation rated 'A-1' is rated in the highest category by Standard & Poor's. The obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is strong. Within this category,
certain obligations are designated with a plus sign (+). This indicates that the obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on these obligations is extremely strong.
A-2—A short-term obligation rated 'A-2' is somewhat more susceptible to the adverse effects of changes in circumstances and economic conditions than obligations in higher rating categories. However, the obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is satisfactory.
A-3—A short-term obligation rated 'A-3' exhibits adequate protection parameters. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.
B—A short-term obligation rated 'B' is regarded as having significant speculative characteristics. Ratings of 'B-1', 'B-2', and 'B-3' may be assigned to indicate finer distinctions within the 'B' category. The obligor currently has the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation; however, it faces major ongoing uncertainties which could lead to the obligor's inadequate capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.
B-1—A short-term obligation rated 'B-1' is regarded as having significant speculative characteristics, but the obligor has a relatively stronger capacity to meet its financial commitments over the short-term compared to other speculative-grade obligors.
B-2—A short-term obligation rated 'B-2' is regarded as having significant speculative characteristics, and the obligor has an average speculative-grade capacity to meet its financial commitments over the short-term compared to other speculative-grade obligors.
B-3—A short-term obligation rated 'B-3' is regarded as having significant speculative characteristics, and the obligor has a relatively weaker capacity to meet its financial commitments over the short-term compared to other speculative-grade obligors.
C—A short-term obligation rated 'C' is currently vulnerable to nonpayment and is dependent upon favorable business, financial, and economic conditions for the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.
D—A short-term obligation rated 'D' is in payment default. The 'D' rating category is used when payments on an obligation, including a regulatory capital instrument, are not made on the date due even if the applicable grace period has not expired, unless Standard & Poor's believes that such payments will be made during such grace period. The 'D' rating also will be used upon the filing of a bankruptcy petition or the taking of a similar action if payments on an obligation are jeopardized.
Description of Standard & Poor's Ratings Group's Municipal Short-Term Note Ratings Definitions:
A Standard & Poor's U.S. municipal note rating reflects Standard & Poor's opinion about the liquidity factors and market access risks unique to the notes. Notes due in three years or less will likely receive a note rating. Notes with an original maturity of more than three years will most likely receive a long-term debt rating. In determining which type of rating, if any, to assign, Standard & Poor's has indicated that its analysis will review the following considerations: (1) amortization schedule—the larger the final maturity relative to other maturities, the more likely it will be treated as a note; and (2) source of payment—the more dependent the issue is on the market for its refinancing, the more likely it will be treated as a note.
Note rating symbols are as follows:
SP-1—Strong capacity to pay principal and interest. An issue determined to possess a very strong capacity to pay debt service is given a plus (+) designation.
SP-2—Satisfactory capacity to pay principal and interest, with some vulnerability to adverse financial and economic changes over the term of the notes.
SP-3—Speculative capacity to pay principal and interest.
Description of Standard & Poor's Ratings Group's Dual Ratings:
Standard & Poor's assigns "dual" ratings to all debt issues that have a put option or demand feature as part of their structure. The first rating addresses the likelihood of repayment of principal and interest as due, and the second rating addresses only the demand feature. The long-term rating symbols are used for bonds to denote the long-term maturity and the short term rating symbols for the put option (for example, 'AAA/A-1+'). With U.S. municipal short-term demand debt, note rating symbols are used with the short-term issue credit rating symbols (for example, 'SP-1+/A-1+').
Description of Standard & Poor's Ratings Group's Active Qualifiers (Currently applied and/or outstanding)
i: This subscript is used for issues in which the credit factors, terms, or both, that determine the likelihood of receipt of payment of interest are different from the credit factors, terms or both that determine the likelihood of receipt of principal on the obligation. The 'i' subscript indicates that the rating addresses the interest portion of the obligation only. The 'i' subscript will always be used in conjunction with the 'p' subscript, which addresses likelihood of receipt of principal. For example, a rated obligation could be assigned ratings of "AAAp NRi" indicating that the principal portion is rated "AAA" and the interest portion of the obligation is not rated.
L: Ratings qualified with 'L' apply only to amounts invested up to Federal deposit insurance limits.
p: This subscript is used for issues in which the credit factors, the terms, or both, that determine the likelihood of receipt of payment of principal are different from the credit factors, terms or both that determine the likelihood of receipt of interest on the obligation. The 'p' subscript indicates that the rating addresses the principal portion of the obligation only. The 'p' subscript will always be used in conjunction with the 'i' subscript, which addresses likelihood of receipt of interest. For example, a rated obligation could be assigned ratings of "AAAp NRi" indicating that the principal portion is rated "AAA" and the interest portion of the obligation is not rated.
pi: Ratings with a 'pi' subscript are based on an analysis of an issuer's published financial information, as well as additional information in the public domain. They do not, however, reflect in-depth meetings with an issuer's management and therefore may be based on less comprehensive information than ratings without a 'pi' subscript. Ratings with a 'pi' subscript are reviewed annually based on a new year's financial statements, but may be reviewed on an interim basis if a major event occurs that may affect the issuer's credit quality.
preliminary: Preliminary ratings, with the 'prelim' qualifier, may be assigned to obligors or obligations, including financial programs, in the circumstances described below. Assignment of a final rating is conditional on the receipt by Standard & Poor's of appropriate documentation. Standard & Poor's reserves the right not to issue a final rating. Moreover, if a final rating is issued, it may differ from the preliminary rating. (1) Preliminary ratings may be assigned to obligations, most commonly structured and
project finance issues, pending receipt of final documentation and legal opinions. (2) Preliminary ratings are assigned to Rule 415 Shelf Registrations. As specific issues, with defined terms, are offered from the master registration, a final rating may be assigned to them in accordance with Standard & Poor's policies. (3) Preliminary ratings may be assigned to obligations that will likely be issued upon the obligor's emergence from bankruptcy or similar reorganization, based on late-stage reorganization plans, documentation and discussions with the obligor. Preliminary ratings may also be assigned to the obligors. These ratings consider the anticipated general credit quality of the reorganized or post-bankruptcy issuer as well as attributes of the anticipated obligation(s). (4) Preliminary ratings may be assigned to entities that are being formed or that are in the process of being independently established when, in Standard & Poor's opinion, documentation is close to final. Preliminary ratings may also be assigned to these entities' obligations. (5) Preliminary ratings may be assigned when a previously unrated entity is undergoing a well-formulated restructuring, recapitalization, significant financing or other transformative event, generally at the point that investor or lender commitments are invited. The preliminary rating may be assigned to the entity and to its proposed obligation(s). These preliminary ratings consider the anticipated general credit quality of the obligor, as well as attributes of the anticipated obligation(s), assuming successful completion of the transformative event. Should the transformative event not occur, Standard & Poor's would likely withdraw these preliminary ratings. (6) A preliminary recovery rating may be assigned to an obligation that has a preliminary issue credit rating.
t: This symbol indicates termination structures that are designed to honor their contracts to full maturity or, should certain events occur, to terminate and cash settle all their contracts before their final maturity date.
unsolicited: Unsolicited ratings are those credit ratings assigned at the initiative of Standard & Poor's and not at the request of the issuer or its agents.
Description of Fitch Ratings' Corporate Finance Long-Term Obligation Ratings:
Ratings of individual securities or financial obligations of a corporate issuer address relative vulnerability to default on an ordinal scale. In addition, for financial obligations in corporate finance, a measure of recovery given default on that liability is also included in the rating assessment. This notably applies to covered bonds ratings, which incorporate both an indication of the probability of default and of the recovery given a default of this debt instrument.
The relationship between issuer scale and obligation scale assumes an historical average recovery of between 30% and 50% on the senior, unsecured obligations of an issuer. As a result, individual obligations of entities, such as corporations, are assigned ratings higher, lower, or the same as that entity's issuer rating or Issuer Default Rating. At the lower end of the ratings scale, Fitch Ratings now additionally publishes explicit Recovery Ratings in many cases to complement issuer and obligation ratings.
AAA—Highest credit quality. 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of credit risk. They are assigned only in cases of exceptionally strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
AA—Very high credit quality. 'AA' ratings denote expectations of very low credit risk. They indicate very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. This capacity is not significantly vulnerable to foreseeable events.
A—High credit quality. 'A' ratings denote expectations of low credit risk. The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered strong. This capacity may, nevertheless, be more vulnerable to adverse business or economic conditions than is the case for higher ratings.
BBB—Good credit quality. 'BBB' ratings indicate that expectations of credit risk are currently low. The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered adequate but adverse business or economic conditions are more likely to impair this capacity.
BB—Speculative. 'BB' ratings indicate an elevated vulnerability to credit risk, particularly in the event of adverse changes in business or economic conditions over time; however, business or financial alternatives may be available to allow financial commitments to be met.
B—Highly speculative. 'B' ratings indicate that material credit risk is present.
CCC—Substantial credit risk. 'CCC' ratings indicate that substantial credit risk is present.
CC—Very high levels of credit risk. 'CC' ratings indicate very high levels of credit risk.
C—Exceptionally high levels of credit risk. 'C' indicates exceptionally high levels of credit risk.
Defaulted obligations typically are not assigned 'D' ratings, but are instead rated in the 'B' to 'C' rating categories, depending upon their recovery prospects and other relevant characteristics. This approach better aligns obligations that have comparable overall expected loss but varying vulnerability to default and loss.
Note: The modifiers "+" or "-" may be appended to a rating to denote relative status within major rating categories. Such suffixes are not added to the 'AAA' obligation rating category, or to corporate finance obligation ratings in the categories below 'B'.
Description of Fitch Ratings' Structured, Project & Public Finance Long-Term Obligation Ratings:
Ratings of structured finance, project finance and public finance obligations on the long-term scale, including the financial obligations of sovereigns, consider the obligations' relative vulnerability to default. These ratings are typically assigned to an individual security or tranche in a transaction and not to an issuer.
AAA—Highest credit quality. 'AAA' ratings denote the lowest expectation of default risk. They are assigned only in cases of exceptionally strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.
AA—Very high credit quality. 'AA' ratings denote expectations of very low default risk. They indicate very strong capacity for payment of financial commitments. This capacity is not significantly vulnerable to foreseeable events.
A—High credit quality. 'A' ratings denote expectations of low default risk. The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered strong. This capacity may, nevertheless, be more vulnerable to adverse business or economic conditions than is the case for higher ratings.
BBB—Good credit quality. 'BBB' ratings indicate that expectations of default risk are currently low. The capacity for payment of financial commitments is considered adequate but adverse business or economic conditions are more likely to impair this capacity.
BB—Speculative. 'BB' ratings indicate an elevated vulnerability to default risk, particularly in the event of adverse changes in business or economic conditions over time.
B—Highly speculative. 'B' ratings indicate that material default risk is present, but a limited margin of safety remains. Financial commitments are currently being met; however, capacity for continued payment is vulnerable to deterioration in the business and economic environment.
CCC—Substantial credit risk. 'CCC' ratings indicate that default is a real possibility.
CC—Very high levels of credit risk. 'CC' ratings indicate that default of some kind appears probable.
C—Exceptionally high levels of credit risk. 'C' ratings indicate that default appears imminent or inevitable.
D—Default. 'D' ratings indicate a default. Default generally is defined as one of the following: (1) failure to make payment of principal and/or interest under the contractual terms of the rated obligation; (2) the bankruptcy filings, administration, receivership, liquidation or other winding-up or cessation of the business of an issuer/obligor; or (3) the coercive exchange of an obligation, where creditors were offered securities with diminished structural or economic terms compared with the existing obligation.
Structured Finance Defaults—"Imminent" default, categorized under 'C', typically refers to the occasion where a payment default has been intimated by the issuer, and is all but inevitable. "Imminent" default alternatively refers to the case where an issuer has formally announced a coercive debt exchange, but the date of the exchange still lies several days or weeks in the immediate future.
Additionally, in structured finance transactions, where analysis indicates that an instrument is irrevocably impaired such that it is not expected to pay interest and/or principal in full in accordance with the terms of the obligation's documentation during the life of the transaction, but where no payment default in accordance with the terms of the documentation is imminent, the obligation will typically be rated in the 'C' category.
Structured Finance Write-downs—Where an instrument has experienced an involuntary and, in Fitch Ratings' opinion, irreversible "write-down" of principal (i.e., other than through amortization, and resulting in a loss to the investor), a credit rating of 'D' will be assigned to the instrument. Where Fitch Ratings believes the "write-down" may prove to be temporary (and the loss may be "written up" again in future if and when performance improves), then a credit rating of 'C' will typically be assigned. Should the "write-down" then later be reversed, the credit rating will be raised to an appropriate level for that instrument. Should the "write-down" later be deemed irreversible, the credit rating will be lowered to 'D'.
Notes: In the case of structured and project finance, while the ratings do not address the loss severity given default of the rated liability, loss severity assumptions on the underlying assets are nonetheless typically included as part of the analysis. Loss severity assumptions are used to derive pool cash flows available to service the rated liability.
In the case of public finance, the ratings also do not address the loss given default of the rated liability, focusing instead on the vulnerability to default of the rated liability.
The modifiers "+" or "-" may be appended to a rating to denote relative status within major rating categories. Such suffixes are not added to the 'AAA' Long-Term Rating category, or categories below 'B'.
Description of Fitch Ratings' Corporate, Public and Structured Finance Short-Term Obligation Ratings:
A short-term issuer or obligation rating is based in all cases on the short-term vulnerability to default of the rated entity or security stream and relates to the capacity to meet financial obligations in accordance
with the documentation governing the relevant obligation. Short-Term Ratings are assigned to obligations whose initial maturity is viewed as "short term" based on market convention. Typically, this means up to 13 months for corporate, sovereign, and structured obligations, and up to 36 months for obligations in U.S. public finance markets.
F1—Highest short-term credit quality. Indicates the strongest intrinsic capacity for timely payment of financial commitments; may have an added "+" to denote any exceptionally strong credit feature.
F2—Good short-term credit quality. Good intrinsic capacity for timely payment of financial commitments.
F3—Fair short-term credit quality. The intrinsic capacity for timely payment of financial commitments is adequate.
B—Speculative short-term credit quality. Minimal capacity for timely payment of financial commitments, plus heightened vulnerability to near term adverse changes in financial and economic conditions.
C—High short-term default risk. Default is a real possibility.
RD—Restricted default. Indicates an entity that has defaulted on one or more of its financial commitments, although it continues to meet other financial obligations. Or, the default of a specific short-term obligation.
D—Default. Indicates a broad-based default event for an entity, or the default of all short-term obligations.
Notes to Fitch Ratings' Long-Term and Short-Term Obligation Ratings:
Rating Watch: Rating Watches indicate that there is a heightened probability of a rating change and the likely direction of such a change. These are designated as "Positive", indicating a potential upgrade, "Negative", for a potential downgrade, or "Evolving", if ratings may be raised, lowered or affirmed. However, ratings that are not on Rating Watch can be raised or lowered without being placed on Rating Watch first, if circumstances warrant such an action.
A Rating Watch is typically event-driven and, as such, it is generally resolved over a relatively short period. The event driving the Watch may be either anticipated or have already occurred, but in both cases, the exact rating implications remain undetermined. The Watch period is typically used to gather further information and/or subject the information to further analysis. Additionally, a Watch may be used where the rating implications are already clear, but where a triggering event (e.g., shareholder or regulatory approval) exists. The Watch will typically extend to cover the period until the triggering event is resolved or its outcome is predictable with a high enough degree of certainty to permit resolution of the Watch.
Rating Watches can be employed by all analytical groups and are applied to the ratings of individual entities and/or individual instruments. At the lowest categories of speculative grade ('CCC', 'CC' and 'C') the high volatility of credit profiles may imply that almost all ratings should carry a Watch. Watches are nonetheless only applied selectively in these categories, where a committee decides that particular events or threats are best communicated by the addition of the Watch designation.
Rating Outlook: Rating Outlooks indicate the direction a rating is likely to move over a one- to two-year period. They reflect financial or other trends that have not yet reached the level that would trigger a rating action, but which may do so if such trends continue. The majority of Outlooks are generally Stable,
which is consistent with the historical migration experience of ratings over a one- to two-year period. Positive or Negative rating Outlooks do not imply that a rating change is inevitable and, similarly, ratings with Stable Outlooks can be raised or lowered without a prior revision to the Outlook, if circumstances warrant such an action. Occasionally, where the fundamental trend has strong, conflicting elements of both positive and negative, the Rating Outlook may be described as Evolving.
Outlooks are currently applied on the long-term scale to issuer ratings in corporate finance (including sovereigns, industrials, utilities, financial institutions and insurance companies) and public finance outside the U.S.; to issue ratings in public finance in the U.S.; to certain issues in project finance; to Insurer Financial Strength Ratings; to issuer and/or issue ratings in a number of National Rating scales; and to the ratings of structured finance transactions. Outlooks are not applied to ratings assigned on the short-term scale and are applied selectively to ratings in the 'CCC', 'CC' and 'C' categories. Defaulted ratings typically do not carry an Outlook.
Expected Ratings: Where a rating is referred to as "expected", alternatively referred to as "expects to rate" or suffixed as (EXP), this indicates that a full rating has been assigned based upon Fitch Ratings' expectations regarding final documentation, typically based upon a review of the final draft documentation provided by the issuer. No other conditionality pertains to an expected rating. While expected ratings typically convert to final ratings within a short time, as determined by the issuer's decisions regarding timing of transaction closure, in the period between assignment of an expected rating and a final rating, expected ratings may be raised, lowered or placed on Rating Watch, as with final ratings.
Program Ratings: Program ratings assigned to corporate and public finance note issuance programs (e.g., medium-term note programs) relate only to standard issues made under the program concerned; it should not be assumed that these ratings apply to every issue made under the program.
"Interest-Only" Ratings: Interest-only ratings are assigned to interest strips. These ratings do not address the possibility that a security holder might fail to recover some or all of its initial investment due to voluntary or involuntary principal repayments.
"Principal-Only" Ratings: Principal-only ratings address the likelihood that a security holder will receive its initial principal investment either before or by the scheduled maturity date.
"Rate of Return" Ratings: Ratings also may be assigned to gauge the likelihood of an investor receiving a certain predetermined internal rate of return without regard to the precise timing of any cash flows.
Paid-In-Full: This tranche has reached maturity, regardless of whether it was amortized or called early. As the issue no longer exists, it is therefore no longer rated. Indicated in rating databases with the symbol "PIF".
NR: A designation of "Not Rated" or "NR" is used to denote securities not rated by Fitch where Fitch has rated some, but not all, securities comprising an issuance capital structure.
Withdrawn: The rating has been withdrawn and the issue or issuer is no longer rated by Fitch Ratings. Indicated in rating databases with the symbol 'WD'.
APPENDIX B
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE OREGON ECONOMY
AND OREGON OBLIGATIONS
The following information is a summary of certain factors affecting the credit and financial condition of the State of Oregon ("Oregon" or the "State"). The sources of payment for Oregon municipal obligations and the marketability thereof may be affected by financial or other difficulties experienced by the State and certain of its municipalities and public authorities. This summary does not purport to be a complete description and is derived solely from information contained in publicly available documents, including the June 2018 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast prepared by the State of Oregon Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis, and other reports prepared by state government and budget officials and statement of issuers of Oregon municipal obligations, as available on the date of this Statement of Additional Information. Any characterizations of fact, assessments of conditions, estimates of future results and other projections are statements of opinion made by the State in, and as of the date of, such reports and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. The Trust is not responsible for information contained in such reports and has not independently verified the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of information contained in such reports. Such information is included herein without the express authority of any Oregon issuer and is provided without regard to any events that have occurred since the date of the most recent publicly available report.
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
Historical Perspective
The Oregon economy has transitioned and diversified from a predominant concentration in timber harvesting and wood products manufacturing to high-tech manufacturing. As high-tech manufacturing grew in Oregon, the State also developed stronger ties to major export markets in the Pacific Rim. Population growth has historically exceeded the national rate, fueled by the in-migration of young professional and retiree populations attracted by the high-quality jobs, relatively low cost of living and doing business on the West Coast.
Sectors of increasing importance in the Oregon economy include professional and business services, construction, health services, and leisure and hospitality. Exports also continue to be a driver for the Oregon economy. China and Canada are top destinations for Oregon exports, with the Chinese economy affecting the Oregon economy more than most other countries. However, these external influences are significantly smaller than the overall health of the U.S. economy.
The collapse of the national housing market affected associated Oregon industries, with heavy job losses in wood products and construction. As the 2008-09 financial crisis led to a deeper recession for the U.S. economy, this in turn deepened the recession for Oregon. While Oregon's housing market was affected by the economic downturn, generally its values declined somewhat less than several other western states including California, Nevada, and Arizona. Growth in employment and tax revenues have increased as Oregon's labor market recovered from the 2009 recession. However, as Oregon is at or near full employment, growth in jobs and personal income tax withholdings have decelerated over the past couple of years. The state is transitioning to more sustainable growth rates. Importantly, broader measures of economic well-being, such as median household income, the poverty rate and needs-based caseloads continue to improve.
The 2010 U.S. Census ranked Oregon as the 27th most populous state with a population of 3.84 million. Oregon's population growth rate since the 2000 census is the 14th fastest in the nation.
The loss of Federal timber payments to eligible counties for loss of property tax revenue, which resulted from an inability to impose taxes on federally owned forest lands, and reduction in the amount of logging allowed on Federal forest lands, has impacted Oregon counties, particularly in the southern region of the state.
Oregon's debt levels are high in relation to its economic base. The state is highly vulnerable to budgetary strain due to its high reliance on volatile income taxes. The State has mixed demographic trends with above average population and in migration growth, but below average wealth levels. Property taxes are a significant source of revenue for many local governments. The State and its various subdivisions may also face increasing financial pressure from costs relating to pensions and other post-employment benefits. The unfunded liability in the Oregon Public Employees Retirement System ("PERS") has increased to over $25 billion. The PERS Board has increased public employers' contribution rates to address the unfunded liability. The high contribution rates will significantly affect public budgets, potentially impacting the repayment ability of PERS employers across the State, including most Oregon municipal bond issuers. The PERS Board's ability to make plan design changes affecting the accounts of certain long-term public employees has been negatively affected by Oregon court decisions.
In 2013, the Oregon Legislative Assembly enacted the 2013 PERS Bills that were expected to limit annual benefits cost of living adjustments for PERS retirees, eliminate a benefit increase for out-of-state retirees based on Oregon income tax, exclude certain salary increases from the pension benefits calculation, and reduce legislators' participation in PERS. The 2013 PERS Bills were expected to reduce future benefit payments, resulting in a reduction of the System's unfunded actuarial liability by approximately $5 billion. Lawsuits were filed challenging provisions of the 2013 PERS Bills, including the changes to the cost of living adjustment ("COLA") and the elimination of a benefit increase for out-of-state retirees based on Oregon income tax. In April 2015, the Oregon Supreme Court announced a decision that upheld the elimination of the benefit increase for out-of-state retirees. The COLA reductions were declared unconstitutional as applied to benefits earned prior to the June 1, 2013 effective date of the 2013 PERS Bills. However, the reduced COLA could be applied to the benefits earned after the 2013 PERS Bills became effective. Substantial increases in employer contribution rates will probably be required to cover the resulting increase in plan liabilities.
In order to reduce the state's budgetary problems, including providing the proper funding of schools and to help alleviate the PERS underfunded liability, Oregon lawmakers have made multiple attempts to change the manner in which the state taxes business income. Each of these attempts potentially increases the Oregon tax liability for businesses with income attributable to the State.
THE STATE OF OREGON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATION
The Oregon Constitution divides the powers of State government among the Legislative, Executive and Judicial branches.
The Legislative Branch
Oregon has a bicameral Legislative Assembly consisting of the Senate with thirty members elected to serve four-year terms and the House of Representatives with sixty members elected to two-year terms.
The Legislative Assembly convenes its regular session in January of each year, with normal sessions in odd-numbered years ("regular sessions") and abbreviated sessions in even-numbered years. Legislative sessions are limited to 160 days in odd numbered years, and 35 days in even numbered years. Sessions may be extended for five days at a time, by a two-thirds majority vote of both chambers of the legislature. During a typical regular
legislative session, approximately one-third of the estimated 3,000 bills introduced become law. The Governor or a majority of each house may call special sessions of the Legislative Assembly to deal with emergencies.
The primary functions of the Legislative Assembly are to adopt a balanced budget for all State funds, as required by the Oregon Constitution and to enact general laws. Historically, the Legislative Assembly budgeted on a biennial basis because it convened biennially. However, the Oregon Constitution was amended in 2010 to provide for annual sessions. Therefore, the Legislative Assembly may adopt annual budgets for State agencies, rather than for the entire biennium, or may adopt biennial agency budgets that are adjusted in an interim legislative session. State law requires a financial report of State operations to be prepared at the end of each fiscal year. The State's fiscal year ends June 30.
The Oregon Constitution authorizes the Emergency Board ("E-Board'), a joint legislative committee, to meet between legislative sessions to address financial matters of the State arising in the interim period. The seventeen-member E-Board consists of the President of the Senate, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Co-Chairpersons of the Joint Ways and Means Committee, six other Senate members and seven other House members. The E-Board, which may schedule its own meetings, usually meets once every other month during the interim between regular sessions. If an emergency exists, the E-Board may allocate additional moneys to any State agency out of funds appropriated to the E-Board by the Legislative Assembly during its regular session. The Board may also provide moneys for an activity required by law for which the Legislative Assembly did not appropriate money to increase expenditure authority from dedicated or continuously appropriated funds, and approve funding for a new activity coming into existence at a time that would preclude submission of a budget to the Legislative Assembly.
The Executive Branch
The chief executive power of the State is vested in the Governor. The Governor is elected to a four-year term and is limited to serving two terms in any twelve-year period. Kate Brown became Governor on February 18, 2015, succeeding John Kitzhaber upon his resignation, and she was elected at the November 2016 general election to complete the term ending December 31, 2018. The Governor proposes, plans, and recommends a budget for almost all of State government to the Legislative Assembly. The Governor also may call special sessions of the Legislative Assembly and appoint judges to vacant judicial positions. The Governor directly appoints the directors of most State agencies and many other State officials.
The Secretary of State is a statewide constitutionally elected officer designated as the auditor of public accounts in the State and as the State's chief elections officer. As auditor, the Secretary of State audits or reviews the accounts and financial affairs of State boards, commissions, departments and institutions. The Secretary of State also edits, codifies and publishes administrative rules, which supplement laws passed by the Legislative Assembly and prescribe the manner in which State agencies conduct business.
The State Treasurer is also a statewide constitutionally elected officer. The Treasurer is responsible for all moneys paid into the State Treasury and administers the State's banking, cash flow, borrowing and investment operations. The State Treasurer also chairs or serves on numerous State boards and commissions responsible for investing several State funds and for setting borrowing policies for the State.
The Governor, the Secretary of State and the State Treasurer comprise the State Land Board, established by the Oregon Constitution to manage the Common School Fund and certain lands dedicated at statehood for educational purposes. The valuation of the Common School Fund was approximately $1.67 billion as of December 31, 2017. Its value fluctuates based on market conditions and the amount of withdrawals. The fund is managed as a perpetual trust fund with approximately two to five percent of its
value distributed annually to the State Superintendent of Public Schools for distribution to the State's K-12 public school districts.
In addition to the Offices of the Secretary of State and the State Treasurer, the Executive Branch includes other offices administered by statewide elected officials. The State Attorney General manages the Department of Justice and the State's legal affairs. The Labor Commissioner manages the Bureau of Labor and Industries that oversees and enforces the State's labor and wage laws.
The Judicial Branch
The Oregon Constitution establishes the Judicial Branch, which consists of the Supreme Court, Court of Appeals, Tax Court, and 36 Circuit Courts in 27 judicial districts. The Chief Justice of the Oregon Supreme Court administers the State court system and is the head of the Oregon Judicial Department. The Court of Appeals hears most of the civil and criminal appeals from the Circuit Courts and reviews most State administrative agency actions. The Circuit Courts are Oregon's trial courts of general jurisdiction. The Tax Court is a special one judge court that has exclusive, statewide jurisdiction to hear only cases involving Oregon's tax laws. All Oregon judges are elected by popular vote. The Governor, however, may appoint judges to fill vacancies that occur.
Services Provided by State Government
The Governor appoints the heads of and coordinates numerous State agencies that provide services through program areas that include: (1) Consumer and Business Services for protecting consumers and workers, promoting a positive business climate and regulation of various professions; (2) Economic and Community Development that aids businesses and people, including job creation, placement and retention services, business recruitment, community development and affordable housing; (3) Education from prekindergarten to post-secondary and life-long learning through community colleges and workforce development programs; (4) Human Services that relate to physical, mental and public health, self-sufficiency, child protective services and care for seniors and people with disabilities; (5) Natural Resources overseeing pollution control, land use, water quality and conservation, agriculture and food products, forests, watersheds and fisheries; (6) Public Safety that protects Oregon's people, property and natural resources through trained militia, law enforcement, prosecution and incarceration of juvenile and adult offenders; (7) Transportation; and (8) Administration that manages and provides policy direction and central services to other State agencies, such as data and networking infrastructure and procurement activities. The management of elections and tax collection activities are also under this program area.
Employee Relations
As reported in the State's CAFR for FY 2017, there were 38,752 employees providing services through State government. Certain employees of the State of Oregon and political subdivisions have the right to form, join, and participate in the activities of labor organizations for representation and collective bargaining on matters concerning employment relations. An officially recognized or certified labor organization is the exclusive representative of its covered employees for collective bargaining. The scope of representation may include, but is not limited to, matters concerning wages, hours, paid leave and grievance procedures. The public employer must bargain in good faith with respect to employment relations. If a contract remains unsettled after a 150-day period of good faith contract negotiations, either or both of the parties may notify the Employment Relations Board (ERB) of the need for a mediator. The parties may mutually agree to request a mediator before the end of the 150-day period by notifying the Board. If the parties do not reach settlement through mediation, then either party may declare impasse. The parties then must each submit a final offer to the ERB. The parties have a 30-day cooling off period, which starts when the parties have submitted their Final Offers to the ERB and the ERB makes public the
Final Offers. After the 30-day cooling off period, the employer may implement its fmal offer. With 10 days' notice, the union may legally strike. The 10 day strike notice may be provided to the public employer during the 30 day cooling off period or after the cooling off period. For strike-prohibited bargaining units, either the employer or the exclusive representative may initiate binding arbitration to establish a successor collective bargaining agreement if mediation fails to produce a settlement. All State labor contracts expire at the end of each biennium (June 30, every two years) and are re-negotiated for the following biennium.
STATE FINANCIAL OPERATIONS
Budgetary Process
The Oregon constitution requires the State's budget to balance at the end of each biennium. Article IX, Section 2 of the Oregon Constitution states that the Legislative Assembly shall provide for raising revenue sufficiently to defray the expenses of the State for each fiscal year. Article IX, Section 6 of the constitution states that "whenever the expenses, of any fiscal year, shall exceed the income, the Legislative Assembly shall provide for levying a tax, for the ensuing fiscal year, sufficient, with other sources of income, to pay the deficiency, as well as the estimated expense [sic] of the ensuing fiscal year." Because of these two provisions, Oregon may not budget a deficit and is required to alleviate any revenue shortfalls within each biennium.
Historically, during the regular legislative session at the end of every biennium, the Legislative Assembly adopts a budget covering all of the State's operations for the next biennium. A biennium begins July 1 and ends June 30 of odd-numbered years. The budget is adopted through the enactment of separate budget bills for each State agency and the Legislative and Judicial Branches (the "Budget Bills"). There are four different categories of funds included in the State's budget: (i) General Fund, (ii) Lottery Funds, (iii) Other Funds (dedicated funds), and (iv) Federal Funds.
The budgeting process begins with the Governor's submission of a recommended budget for State agencies in the December preceding the start of a new regular legislative session. Concurrently, the Department of Administrative Services ("DAS" or the "Department") prepares and files Budget Bills during December so that when the Legislative Assembly convenes in January for its regular session, the Joint Ways and Means Committee can begin consideration of each bill. By statute, the budget may not permit certain governmental purpose expenditures to exceed eight percent of the State's personal income. This limitation may be exceeded only if the Governor declares an emergency and if three-fifths of each house of the Legislative Assembly votes to exceed the limit.
The Legislative Assembly may provide spending authority to a State agency through a continuous appropriation of a fund dedicated for a certain purpose. In that case, spending is limited only by the amount of revenues received in or held by the fund. The Legislative Assembly may also limit the amount of money spent by placing an expenditure limitation on a continuously appropriated and dedicated fund. In addition, the Legislative Assembly enacts one-time appropriations of moneys to specific agencies or programs from moneys expected to be received or held by the State's General Fund and from lottery revenues. After the Budget Bills are passed, the Governor may veto an entire bill, single items in appropriation bills or the emergency clause in a bill. A two-thirds vote of the Legislative Assembly may override the Governor's veto.
If budget adjustments are required after a legislative session has ended, the Legislative Assembly may meet again in a specially called session, or the Legislative E- Board may adjust agency budgets.
Component Units
The Legislative Assembly has authorized the creation of certain public or non-profit corporations that are closely tied to certain statewide functions or agencies (the "Component Units"). These entities generally perform statewide functions that are authorized by the Legislative Assembly, but are not required to comply with many of the budgeting, purchasing and other requirements imposed on State agencies. Included among these Component Units are the State Accident Insurance Fund (SAIF) Corporation and the Oregon Health and Science University ("OHSU"). In 1995, the Legislative Assembly transferred the duties and powers of the OHSU to an independent public corporation with statewide purposes and missions and without territorial boundaries. The State entered into a Debt Service Payment Agreement with OHSU pursuant to which OHSU assumed the repayment obligation for all bonds issued by the State for the original university. OHSU submits its funding request for each biennium to DAS, which includes such request as part of the Governor's biennial recommended budget.
In addition, as of July 1, 2015, the State's seven public universities (Oregon State University, Portland State University, and University of Oregon, Eastern Oregon University, Oregon Institute of Technology, Southern Oregon University, and Western Oregon University) became independent universities, each governed by an independent board and considered a public body with statewide purposes and without territorial boundaries. Each independent university may submit a funding request for each biennium that requests state aid and appropriations for state-funded debt service. This funding request is made through the Higher Education Coordinating Commission to the Governor and made a part of the Governor's biennial recommended budget. Any moneys appropriated to pay debt service for state bonds must be held by the State Treasurer pursuant to an agreement entered into by the State Treasurer and an independent university.
Revenue Forecasting
Oregon law requires DAS to prepare an estimate for each calendar quarter of the total amount of revenue, including General Fund and lottery revenues, available for State purposes for the current fiscal year, as well as the amount of revenue received quarterly, cumulated through the biennium. DAS must report its estimates to the Legislative Assembly, when it is in session, and to certain interim committees of the Legislative Assembly, when it is not in session. The reports are issued each March, June, September and December, with their posting dates varying slightly. These reports are commonly known as the quarterly "revenue forecast", and focus on the amount of expected General Fund and lottery revenues. In odd-numbered years when the Legislative Assembly is in session, the June forecast is released approximately May 15 and is commonly referred to as the "close of session" or "COS" forecast.
Oregon law also requires DAS to set forth the methodology and assumptions used to develop each quarterly revenue forecast. The State uses an econometric model to forecast the Oregon economy and personal and corporate income taxes (over 90 percent of the State's General Fund revenue). The econometric model has two major parts: (1) a State economic model that estimates employment, wages and personal income; and (2) a revenue forecasting system based on the economic model, for use in estimating personal and corporate income taxes. The system receives new data each quarter, with revisions to the model as necessary. The model does not include the fees and other miscellaneous revenues that comprise the balance of General Fund revenues.
The development of a revenue forecast involves three steps. First, a forecast of economic conditions in Oregon is made, then projected income and population is translated into projected tax receipts other than from corporate and excise taxes and finally corporate income and excise tax collections are projected. In developing its projections the State uses the national baseline forecasts of IHS Economics.
Accounting Practices
Oregon law designates DAS as the agency responsible for the overall administration and coordination of the State's internal accounting and other fiscal controls and procedures. DAS has developed the Oregon Accounting Manual that sets forth internal policies and uniform procedures for agencies to follow in their fiscal management, accounting and reporting.
DAS must prepare a financial report for the State of Oregon within 180 days after the close of each fiscal year. The reporting entity of the State of Oregon includes all agencies, boards, and commissions that are legally part of the State (primary government), and the State's component units. Component units are legally separate entities for which the primary government is financially accountable or entities that warrant inclusion as part of the financial reporting entity because of the nature and significance of their relationship with the primary government. Oregon's financial statements are prepared in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles applicable to state governments.
All governmental funds use the modified accrual basis of accounting. Revenues are recognized when they become measurable and available. On the modified accrual basis of accounting, taxpayer assessed taxes are recognized when the underlying exchange has occurred and the resources are available. Expenditures are recognized under the modified accrual basis of accounting when the related liability is incurred. An exception to this general rule of expenditure recognition is that principal and interest on general long-term debt is recognized when due. All proprietary and fiduciary funds are accounted for using the accrual basis of accounting. Revenues are recognized when they are earned, and expenses are recognized when a liability is incurred.
Audits
The Secretary of State, as State Auditor, may audit or review the accounts and financial affairs of each State agency as deemed appropriate under ORS 297.210. An audit or review may also occur when there is a change in the executive head of an institution or department. The Governor, Legislative Fiscal Officer and DAS receive a report on each audit. The Secretary of State's Audit Division reviews the funds of the State's larger agencies in connection with the development of the State's annual financial report and provides annual audits, as requested, for the State's revenue bond funded programs.
Disbursements and Allotments
Oregon law requires that State agency spending be monitored and that moneys be disbursed throughout the biennium through an allotment process that is administered by DAS. Under this process, DAS allots to each agency the amount of appropriated moneys that may be spent during each of the eight quarters in a biennium. The amount of an allotment is based on estimates submitted by agencies of their statutory duties and projected expenditures to fulfill the purposes for which moneys were appropriated to them. DAS may amend allotments previously made by it at the request of an agency or after notice by DAS to an agency. In addition, if DAS declares at any time during the biennium that there is a projected budget deficit due to insufficient revenues, then DAS, with the Governor's approval, may reduce previously made allotments to a level necessary to prevent the deficit. Allotments made for the purpose of debt service payments, however, may not be reduced.
Fiscal Checks and Balances
Oregon law provides for a system of checks and balances with respect to the deposit, accounting and expenditure of State moneys. DAS supervises State agency accounting and prescribes rules and regulations for preparation of agency budgets. The Secretary of State, the constitutionally designated
auditor of public accounts, may disapprove claims for payment from any moneys in the State Treasury. State agencies are required to turn the moneys collected by them over to the State Treasurer for deposit into various funds that comprise the State Treasury. The State Treasurer is responsible for control of State banking relationships, cash management and the investment of State funds. Some State moneys are deposited with outside trustees who administer the cash and investments.
On a day-to-day basis, DAS, along with the State Treasurer and the Secretary of State, maintains the system of checks and balances. For example, DAS reconciles its accounts monthly with the related account balances maintained by the State Treasurer, which facilitates the adjustment of any imbalances or other errors. DAS also follows up on major deficiencies listed in the audit reports prepared by the Audits Division of the Secretary of State. Agencies must respond to DAS stating in detail how they will correct the deficiencies.
Loss Management
The Department of Administrative Services, Enterprise Goods and Services, Risk Management section is responsible for managing the State's risk of loss due to various types of loss or liability. The primary kinds of loss that the section works to prevent or pay include physical loss or damage to State property, tort liability claims brought against the State, its officers, employees, or agents, inmate injury, workers' compensation, employee dishonesty, and faithful performance bonds for key positions as required by law and additional positions as determined by agency policy. The State Insurance Fund (the "Fund") generally pays up to a set amount for various types of losses through its self-insurance program, with excess amounts covered by purchased commercial insurance policies. Both self-insurance losses and commercial insurance premiums are paid from the Fund. For each separate category of potential loss, DAS determines the appropriate level of the Fund or commercial insurance. Agencies pay assessments to the Fund for each category of loss.
Seismic Activity
The State is located in an area of seismic activity along the Pacific coast. The scientific consensus is that the State and the Pacific Northwest region is subject to periodic great earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a large fault that runs offshore from Northern California to British Columbia. Geologists are predicting the Pacific Northwest is due for a major earthquake magnitude (8.7 to 9.1). Such an earthquake would cause widespread damage to structures and infrastructure in western Oregon, and total damage in coastal areas inundated by a possible accompanying tsunami. It is likely the infrastructure damage would be sufficient to disrupt transportation, communication, water and sewer systems, power and gas delivery and fuel supplies for weeks to months for much of Western Oregon. This kind of regional disaster is unprecedented and could result in a significant permanent loss of population and business. Other natural disasters occur occasionally, including volcanic eruptions, mudslides and wind storms but with less damage that is more localized than is predicted to occur from a major earthquake.
Affordable Care Act
In recent years the State has reformed its Medicaid system to a network of coordinated care organizations and expanded Medicaid enrollment in response to the federal Affordable Care Act ("ACA"). The coordinated care organizations are intended to provide better and more integrated care to Medicaid recipients and to lower the costs of health care. Through 2016, the federal government, under the ACA reimbursed 100% of the costs of additional Medicaid recipients. Under current law, in fiscal year 2017 that percentage began a gradual decrease to 90% reimbursement by 2020. The difference between the federal reimbursement and the costs to provide Medicaid coverage currently paid by primarily by the State's General Fund. The amount required from the General Fund required to support the ACA population depends on the number of people entering and exiting the ACA caseload, as well as transfers from other
caseload categories. In 2017-19 the State budgeted for the ACA caseload approximately $5.2 billion, of which approximately $300 million is from state fund sources, including the General Fund. However, this projection may change based on factors such as the number of new and transferred enrollees, increases in medical costs, efforts to control those costs and any amendments to the ACA. Also, reducing the number of uninsured may increase employment and spending in the medical field, resulting in some off-setting increases in State tax receipts.
The President and certain Congressional leaders have included a repeal of the ACA in statements concerning their respective legislative agendas. It is not possible to predict with any certainty whether or when the ACA or any specific provision or implementing measure will be repealed, withdrawn or modified in any significant respect, or make determinations which individually or collectively would have a material adverse effect on the financial condition of the State.
STATE OF OREGON INVESTMENT POLICIES
The Office of the State Treasurer (the "OST") invests moneys held on behalf of state agencies and participating local governments through two pooled investment vehicles or through separate accounts with guidelines specific to the agency's investment needs. Some of the agency moneys invested by the OST are bond proceeds or moneys used to pay bond debt service. The State's investment policies are governed by Oregon Revised Statutes and the Oregon Investment Council (the "OIC"). The OIC, created by a 1965 legislative act, establishes investment policies for all State funds. The OST is responsible for implementing those policies. The Governor appoints four of the OIC' s five voting members, who are subject to confirmation by the Oregon Senate. The State Treasurer serves by statute. OST pooled investment vehicles are the statutory Oregon Short-Term Fund (the "OSTF") and the internally established Oregon Intermediate-Term Pool (the "OITP").
The OSTF is a short-term cash investment vehicle created by statute to invest State agency and Oregon local government moneys. The OSTF is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment company. The OST manages the OSTF within guidelines established by the OIC, with advice from and in consultation with, the OSTF Board. Primary investment objectives established for the fund are, in order of priority: preservation of principal, liquidity and yield. The OSTF Financial Statements for the year ended June 30, 2017 reported net assets of approximately $15.4 billion.
The guidelines in place for the OSTF require at least 50 percent of the portfolio to mature or reprice within 93 days; no more than 25 percent of the portfolio may have a maturity longer than one year; and no investments may have a final maturity longer than three years as measured from the settlement date of the initial transaction. Total weighted average credit quality of the portfolio must be a minimum of AA by Standard & Poor's. Reference the OSTF guidelines for full details. Eligible investments may include the following:
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Investments with minimum long-term ratings of AA-, Aa3, or AA-, or better, by Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Services, or Fitch Ratings, respectively, consisting of:
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U.S. Treasury Securities
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U.S. Government Agency Securities
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U.S. dollar-denominated Foreign Government Securities and their Instrumentalities
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Commercial Paper with at least two minimum short-term ratings of A-1, P-1 or Fl by Standard & Poor's, Moody's or Fitch Ratings, respectively.
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Corporate indebtedness with minimum long-term ratings of A-, A3 or A- by Standard & Poor's, Moody's or Fitch Ratings, respectively, at the time of purchase.
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Asset-Backed Securities with minimum long-term ratings of AAA, Aaa or AAA or minimum short-term ratings of A-1+, P-1 or Fl+ by Standard & Poor's, Moody's or Fitch Ratings, respectively, at the time of purchase.
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Certificates of deposit issued by banks in Oregon and insured by the FDIC or collateralized according to ORS Chapter 295, and negotiable certificates of deposit and banker's acceptances from domestic commercial banks with minimum short term ratings Al/P1/F1 by Standard & Poor's, Moody's or Fitch Ratings, respectively.
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Municipal debt obligations (agencies, instrumentalities, and political subdivisions) that have longterm ratings of AA-, Aa3 or AA-, or better, or are rated in the highest category for short-term municipal debt by Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Services, or Fitch Ratings, respectively, at the time of purchase.
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Repurchase agreements and reverse repurchase agreements that mature in no more than 90 days are fully collateralized with cash, government obligations or obligations of agencies of the federal government and are entered into with primary dealers as recognized by the Federal Reserve Bank or the State's custodial bank and certain other types of debt or similar instruments.
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Up to $250 million in the Oregon Local Government Intermediate Fund ("OLGIF")
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The OITP is an alternative to the OSTF for State agencies. The moneys in the OITP are pooled and managed by OST to invest dollars not needed to cover short-term needs and able to withstand price volatility to achieve returns often associated with longer-term investments. The OITP is a voluntary investment vehicle for State agencies with funds that are allowed to be invested.
The OITP' s management objective is to maximize total return, which includes investment value and coupon income within the desired risk parameters and fixed income investments prescribed in the portfolio guidelines. The OITP 's benchmark index is the Barclay's US Aggregate 3-5 years. The OITP is not structured to provide 100 percent net asset value on each participant's initial investment at all times. For consistency with the portfolio's total return objective, the value of each participant's investment is determined on a proportional basis to the net market value of the entire portfolio. The OITP is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment company.
Eligible investments are detailed in the OITP guidelines, but in general, the OITP may invest, subject to diversification requirements, in several types of investment grade rated debt market instruments denominated in U.S. dollars. These may include:
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Obligations of U.S. and non-U.S. corporate issuers;
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Obligations of the U.S. government and its agencies and instrumentalities;
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Obligations issued or guaranteed by non-U.S. governments and instrumentalities;
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Taxable debt securities issued by U.S. states or local governments and their agencies, authorities and other U.S. state government-sponsored enterprises;
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Repurchase agreements and Reverse repurchase agreements.
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The OITP invests in securities that, at the time of purchase, are investment grade rated by nationally recognized rating agencies, such as Moody's or Standard & Poor's. The overall portfolio must maintain an average modified duration of +1- 20% of its benchmark index. Limitations on individual investment terms to maturity vary by security type, but in general, securities have a maximum term of or weighted average life of 10 years.
Except for U.S. Treasury and U.S. Agency securities, no more than 5 percent of the OITP may be invested in the securities of any one issuer and a maximum of 25 percent may be invested in any one of 10 broad sectors as defined by the Bloomberg Industry Classification System ("BICS").
REVENUES
Revenues available to the State are discussed below based on the following categories: General Fund, Lottery Funds, Reserve Funds, Other Funds and Federal Funds. Certain of these revenues are available only to finance permitted purposes as authorized by State or federal law.
General Fund Revenues
The following describes the largest sources of the State's General Fund revenues.
Taxes
Personal Income Taxes. Oregon taxes the personal income of individuals, estates, and trusts. Oregon taxable income is generally calculated using the federal definition of taxable income established under the Code, as amended and in effect applicable to the tax year of the taxpayer. Oregon employers withhold income tax from their employees' wages. The employees then file Oregon tax returns for refunds or pay additional tax by April 15 of each year. Self-employed persons and others not subject to withholding must generally make quarterly estimated tax payments.
Corporate Excise and Income Taxes. Corporations are subject to either a corporate excise tax or the corporate income tax under Oregon law. The corporate excise tax is imposed for the privilege of doing business in Oregon. A corporation is doing business in Oregon when it engages in any profit-seeking activity in Oregon.
The corporate income tax is imposed on any corporation that has income from an Oregon source. Corporations that operate in more than one state must determine the share of their income attributable to Oregon activities using Oregon sales relative to sales in all states for both income taxes and excises taxes. The corporate income tax rate mirrors that of the excise tax rate on taxable income derived from sources within Oregon. Oregon also imposes a graduated corporate minimum tax on C corporations based on Oregon sales, (S corporations are subject to a fixed $150 minimum tax.)
Insurance Taxes. Insurers operating in Oregon are subject to the corporate excise tax. Some insurers that are domiciled in other states or countries are also subject to a retaliatory tax. The Oregon Department of Revenue collects the excise tax. The Insurance Division of the Department of Consumer and Business Services collects the retaliatory tax.
Estate Taxes. Oregon's estate tax is imposed as a percentage of the Oregon estate. Because Oregon calculates its tax differently than the federal estate tax, the Oregon estate tax amount may be different from the federal tax amount, even though the Oregon tax is tied to the Code.
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Taxes. The State imposes various excise taxes on the distribution of all tobacco products in Oregon. Certain tobacco excise taxes are distributed primarily to fund health-related programs, including the Oregon Health Plan and tobacco use reduction. Other amounts are allocated to the state General Fund, and the balance is distributed equally among cities, counties and the Department of Transportation.
Other Taxes. A portion of the moneys collected from several forest harvest taxes and the Amusement Device Tax are allocated to the General Fund.
Raising Taxes. Article IV, Section 25 of the Oregon Constitution requires a three-fifths majority of all members elected to each of the Oregon House and Senate to pass bills for raising revenue and that the presiding officer of each respective house sign the bill or resolution.
Fines and Fees
The fines and fees section of General Fund revenues includes State Court Fees, Secretary of State Corporation Fees, Criminal Fines and Assessments, and Securities Fees. These are fees imposed by agencies or the State courts for the filing of certain court-related or corporate documents and certain fines for violations of the law.
Liquor Sales Apportionment
The State imposes taxes on beer, hard cider, and wine manufactured or distributed in Oregon. The Oregon Liquor Control Commission ("OLCC") exclusively imports and distributes beverages with 21 percent or more alcohol. The OLCC sets the retail prices for the alcohol it distributes. The net revenue from these operations goes into an OLCC account, which distributes approximately 56 percent of the revenues to the General Fund.
Other Sources
Other major sources of General Fund revenue include charges for central services performed by DAS, interest earnings, and miscellaneous revenues.
General Fund Revenue Reduction Due to Income Tax Return (2% Surplus Kicker)
Under the Oregon Constitution, if biennium revenues actually received exceed estimated amounts to be received from personal income taxes, by more than two percent, a tax credit is issued to individual taxpayers. This credit of excess revenues is popularly known as the "kicker." For individuals, the refundable credit is based on the previous calendar year's tax liability (for example, 2008 liability for the 2007-09 kicker). For corporations, the credit is based on the tax liability for the calendar year containing the end of the biennium (for example, 2009 liability for the 2007-09 kicker). The State may retain the individual kicker moneys only if two-thirds of each house of the Legislative Assembly votes to keep the kicker.
In November 2012, voters approved Measure 85, amending the Oregon Constitution and allocating the corporate kicker, (actual biennium revenue from corporate taxes that exceeds the Close of Session revenue forecast more than two percent) to increase K through 12 public education spending.
Lottery Funds
Revenues from the operation of the Oregon State Lottery comprise a significant source of money in the State's budget. After the payment of prizes and operating the State Lottery, revenues are constitutionally dedicated to education, economic development, and natural resources program areas. According to the Oregon Constitution, approximately 84 percent of the total annual revenues from the sale of lottery tickets or shares shall be returned to the public in the form of prizes and net revenues benefiting the public purpose. After paying player prizes and operating expenses, the Lottery transfers the remaining revenues to the Administrative Services Economic Development Fund. The Oregon Constitution and the Legislative Assembly direct how moneys from this fund are distributed. Presently, the Education Stability Fund and the Parks and Natural Resources Fund receive about 33 percent of total transfers. Beginning July 1, 2017, pursuant to Measure 96, approved by the voters in the November 2016 election, 1.5% of net lottery proceed transfers shall be constitutionally dedicated to veterans' services. Debt service payments, State school funding, and economic development efforts are the primary uses for the remainder.
Reserve Funds
The State has two budgetary reserve funds, the Education Stability Fund and the Oregon Rainy Day Fund that may be drawn on in the event of General Fund revenue shortfalls or economic downturns within a biennium subject to certain restrictions described below.
Education Stability Fund ("ESF"). Under the Oregon Constitution, 18 percent of the net proceeds from the State Lottery must be deposited in the ESF. The ESF retains earnings or spends them on public education. The Legislative Assembly also may appropriate other moneys or revenues to the ESF. The amount in the ESF may not exceed 5 percent of the amount that was accrued as revenues in the State's General Fund during the prior biennium. If three-fifths of the Legislative Assembly approves, the Legislative Assembly can appropriate all or a portion of the money in the ESF for public education expenditures subject to the Governor also declaring an emergency or the Legislative Assembly finding that at least one of the following conditions exists: (i) General Fund moneys in the next biennium will be at least three percent below current biennium appropriations; (ii) nonfarm employment has declined for two consecutive quarters in the last twelve months or (iii) General Fund revenues have dropped at least two percent below the current close of session forecast.
Rainy Day Fund ("RDF"). The 2007 Legislative Assembly authorized the establishment of the Oregon Rainy Day Fund, codified in ORS 293.144 to 293.148. ORS 293.146 provides for deposits to the RDF in an amount equal to up to one percent of the State's General Fund appropriations for a biennium. The deposit is payable from the State's General Fund ending balance at the end of a particular biennium. The actual amount of the deposit up to the one percent requirement will depend on the size of the State's General Fund ending balance. Additional transfers to the RDF cannot be made if the balance in the RDF exceeds 7.5 percent of the amount of General Fund revenues collected in the prior biennium. If three-fifths of the Legislative Assembly approves, the Legislative Assembly may appropriate two-thirds of the beginning balance of the biennium in the RDF if it finds that at least one of the following conditions exists: (i) General Fund moneys in the next biennium will be at least three percent below current biennium appropriations; (ii) nonfarm employment has declined for two consecutive quarters in the last twelve months; or (iii) General Fund revenues have dropped at least two percent below the current close of session forecast.
Other Funds Revenues
A description of the largest sources of the State's Other Funds revenue follows below.
Selective Sales and Use Taxes
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Taxes. As described above, a portion of the tobacco excises taxes is allocated to the General Fund and a portion is allocated towards the Oregon Health Plan. The Oregon Health Plan is the primary recipient of the cigarette tax distributed as Other Funds, with small amounts distributed to tobacco cessation programs and among cities, counties, and elderly and disabled transportation programs.
Recreational Marijuana Taxes. Oregon voters legalized recreational use of marijuana under Measure 91 and designated the OLCC as the state agency to regulate the commercial growing and selling of recreational marijuana. The marijuana tax is imposed at the retail level and collected by the Department of Revenue. The tax ranges from 17 to 20 percent. The Legislative Assembly set the base tax rate at 17 percent; however, cities and counties may add up to an additional 3 percent tax. The tax began to be imposed on sales after January 4, 2016 and is distributed as follows: 40% to State School Fund; 20% to Mental Health Alcoholism and Drug Services; 15% to State Police; 10 % to Cities for enforcement of the
Measure; 10% to Counties for enforcement of the Measure; and 5% to the Oregon Health Authority for alcohol and drug abuse prevention.
Motor Fuels Tax and Weight-Mile Tax. Oregon imposes a tax per gallon on the sale of gasoline and other fuels used to propel motor vehicles on the State's highways. The Oregon Department of Transportation ("ODOT") also assesses a weight-mile tax and road use fees on commercial vehicles that operate on public roads within Oregon. The weight-mile tax is based on the declared combination of vehicle weight and vehicle classification group. Revenues derived from the fuels tax, weight-mile tax and road use assessment fees are paid into the State Highway Fund.
Gross Receipts Business Taxes
Public Utilities. Regulated utilities operating within the State must pay in taxes based on their gross operating revenues. These taxes are collected to cover the cost of utility regulation performed by the Oregon Public Utility Commission.
Transportation Taxes
House Bill 2017 (Oregon Laws 2017, Chapter 750) represents the largest transportation funding bill in the state's history. Coming into the 2017 legislative session, transportation was identified as one of the top two priorities for both the Governor and legislature, along with a $1.4 billion hole in the state budget. The Joint Committee on Transportation Preservation and Modernization, which toured the state throughout 2016, was kept intact and set to work developing a comprehensive transportation funding bill.
The bill that ultimately passed is a multi-faceted approach to improving Oregon's transportation system and includes several new funding sources that should improve transit service around the state. The bill will also provide over $1 billion in new funding to counties to help address their extensive maintenance and preservation needs.
The transportation package creates new funding for road maintenance, preservation, and seismic upgrades, which will be financed through an increased weight-mile tax, a gradual increase in the motor fuels tax over a multi-year period and a one-time increase to motor vehicle registration and titling fees. Specifically, registration and titling fees will be increased and tiered in relation to the vehicle miles per-gallon ("MPG") ratings. Vehicles with lower MPG ratings will pay lower fees than vehicles with higher MPG ratings. Electric vehicles will have a separate (higher) registration and titling fee.
Transit funding is also a critical component of the bill and establishes a new 1/10 of one percent (0.01%) statewide employee payroll tax, with proceeds going to the Statewide Transportation Improvement Fund. Ninety percent of the fund will be distributed to counties without a mass transit district or transportation district, mass transit districts, transportation districts, and federally-recognized tribes. Five percent will support a competitive grant program established by the commission, four percent to improve public transportation services between two or more communities and one percent to support a technical resource center at ODOT for rural areas.
Other key components of the bill include changes to the clean fuels program, several jurisdictional transfers, zero-emission and electric vehicles rebates, increased money for the Safe Routes to Schools Program, and direction to ODOT to establish value pricing and tolling on both Interstate-205 and Interstate‑5. The bill also modifies the "Connect Oregon" multimodal transportation initiative.
Employer-Employee Taxes
Employment Taxes. Employers and employees in Oregon must pay unemployment taxes. The rate of unemployment tax depends upon the balance in the Unemployment Compensation Trust Fund as of August 31 of each year, the taxable payroll, and the amount of unemployment benefits paid.
Workers' Compensation Insurance. Oregon employers and employees also pay a workers' compensation assessment. The Director of the Department of Consumer and Business Services determines the amount of workers' compensation assessments.
Severance Taxes
Portions of the Eastern Oregon, Western Oregon and Other Severance taxes are paid to funds outside of the General Fund for various forest-related and other programs
Licenses and Fees
Owners and operators of motor vehicles pay fees to ODOT for the licensing, registration, and titling of their vehicles. These moneys are dedicated to the State Highway Fund and other funds or accounts dedicated for transportation purposes. Another source of revenue comes from the sale of hunting and fishing licenses and tags and occupational licenses.
Other Revenues
Charges for Services. Major portions of these Other Funds revenues are premium payments collected by the Public Employees Benefit Board and the Oregon Educators Benefit Board; fees charged to state agencies for centralized services provided by the Department of Administrative Services; and administrative charges to various tax, fee, assessment, collections and other programs.
Fines, Rents and Royalties, Bond Sales. The State collects income from State-owned properties that are leased or rented. It also collects fines and royalties. Proceeds from the sale of bonds issued by the State are deposited into various program funds and accounts for disbursement to construction projects, or loan and grant programs operated by various State agencies.
Sales, Donations and Loan Repayments. The State from time to time sells State-owned properties, receives donations from various parties and receives repayments on loans made to governmental and private entities under various programs.
Federal Funds
Federal Funds are moneys received from the federal government. The Legislative Assembly may authorize receipt of Federal Funds for specific purposes. These funds must be appropriated by the Legislative Assembly and used in accordance with any restrictions placed on the funds by the federal government.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
2017 Legislative Session and 2017-2019 Legislatively Adopted Budget
During the 2017 Legislative Session, the Legislative Assembly adopted a balanced budget for the 2017-2019 biennium (the "Legislatively Adopted Budget" or "LAB") as required by the State Constitution.
The LAB was based on projected revenues from the State Economic and Revenue Forecast that was released on May 16, 2017 (the "May 2017 Forecast") and revenue changes enacted during the 2017 Legislative Session. The General Fund and Lottery Fund expenditure budget for the 2017-2019 LAB totaled approximately $20.9 billion for an estimated ending balance of $300.7 million.
Other Actions of the 2017 Legislative Session. As part of its long-term budget strategy and cost reduction measures, the Legislative Assembly enacted Senate Bill 1067 (Oregon Laws 2017, Chapter 746), which, among other things makes changes to state government processes, programs and services to reduce and contain state government costs, which are expected to have minimal savings for the 2017-2019 biennium, and greater impact in future biennia. These changes include, among other things: modifications to budgeting practices; requiring the Public Employees' Benefit Board ("PEBB") and the Oregon Educators Benefit Board ("OEBB") to adopt methodologies designed to limit growth in premium or per member health plan costs to 3.4% per year and eliminates double coverage for PEBB and OEBB covered employees who have family members also employed by a PEBB or OEBB employer; limiting the PERS Contingency Reserve Fund balance to $50 million; and requiring the Legislative Assembly to set a minimum amount for bonding for capital projects for each biennium.
House Bill 2391 (Oregon Laws 2017, Chapter 538) ("HB 2391"), authorized, among other things, new assessments related to health care. In total, HB 2391 is anticipated to bring in approximately $605 million in new Other Fund revenues during the 2017-2019 biennium.
2018 Legislative Session and 2017-2019 Legislatively Approved Budget
During the 2018 Legislative Session, which convened on February 5, 2018 and adjourned on March 3, 2018, the Legislative Assembly took actions to adjust the 2017-2019 Legislatively Adopted Budget based on available resources as projected in the March 2018 Forecast. The LAB as adjusted based on available resources is referred to as the "Legislatively Approved Budget." House Bill 5201 ("HB 5201") was the budget reconciliation bill that was adopted during the 2018 Legislative Session to address changes in projected revenues and expenditures since the close of the 2017 Legislative Session. Some of the primary changes within HB 5201 were to rebalance the Department of Human Services and Oregon Health Authority budgets as well as provide additional funding to the Department of Forestry for 2017 emergency fire-fighting costs. The net effect to the overall 2017-2019 budget was a $69.6 million increase in General Fund expenditures and an $80.9 million increase in Lottery Fund expenditures.
After taking into consideration all of the actions of the 2018 Legislative Session, including additional revenue measures to address the effects of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Oregon, the combined General Fund and Lottery Funds budget increased by $150.5 million (a 0.72% increase from the LAB) resulting in a General Fund and Lottery Funds combined ending balance estimated at $654.9 million.
The combined General Fund and Lottery Fund expenditures in the Legislatively Approved Budget, including the effects of the 2018 Legislative Session, total $21.1 billion (an increase of 11.1% from the 2015-2017 biennium) and are primarily divided among the major program areas described below.
The biennial "bond bill," Senate Bill 5505 (Oregon Laws 2017, Chapter 570), as amended by Senate Bill 5702 (Oregon Laws 2018, Chapter 87) ("SB 5702"), authorized approximately $1.34 billion in general obligation bonds and approximately $651.03 million in direct revenue bonds to be issued during the 2017-2019 biennium. In addition, approximately $128 million in certificates of participation and other financing agreements were authorized to be issued during the 2017-2019 biennium. The largest projects authorized by SB 5702 were $39.6 million for a new academic building, as part of the Cascades Expansion for Oregon State University and $20.3 million for Phase II of the Campus for Accelerating Scientific Impact at the University of Oregon.
Other Actions of the 2018 Legislative Session. SB 1528 makes available a credit against personal or corporate income/excise taxes to taxpayers that make contributions to the Opportunity Grant Fund to support Oregon's state-funded, need-based grant program for college students. Contributions to the fund are limited to no more than $14 million per fiscal year, so the estimated General Fund revenue impact for the 2017-2019 biennium is a decrease of $14 million. SB 1528 also requires the addition to Oregon taxable income of amounts allowed as a deduction under the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in section 199A(a) of the Internal Revenue Code, resulting in an estimated General Fund revenue increase of $258.4 million during the 2017-2019 biennium. In total, the effect of SB 1528 is a net increase in General Fund revenues of $244.4 million for the 2017-2019 biennium. Certain political groups have asserted that they plan to challenge SB 1528 on the theory that the bill is a revenue raising measure that did not originate in the House and did not pass with a supermajority pursuant to Section 25, Article IV of the Constitution of the State of Oregon. The State cannot predict whether SB 1528 will be challenged, and if challenged, what outcome would result, including whether the bill would be referred to voters.
SB 1529 updates the State's connection to the internal revenue code and other provisions in federal tax laws, and makes adjustments to Oregon's tax laws intended to offset some of the impacts of changes in federal tax laws. The adjustments in SB 1529 are expected to result in a net increase in General Fund revenues of $240 million during the 2017-2019 biennium.
Senate Bill 1566 (Oregon Laws 2018, Chapter 105) ("SB 1566") makes a one-time transfer of certain revenue received pursuant to SB 1529 to PERS. The transfers include $115 million intended to offset school district employer contribution rates and $25 million to offset future employer contribution rates by providing a match of up to 25% (or $100 million) in employer contributions to PERS side accounts. In addition, SB 1566 authorized the transfer of a portion of excess proceeds above long-term averages of four state revenue streams (state debt collection, capital gains, estate taxes, and interest on unclaimed property) to further offset school districts' unfunded liability. The estimated impact of SB 1566 on the General Fund is indeterminate. The bill also confers jurisdiction on the Oregon Supreme Court with respect to any constitutional challenge to the bill. A person who is, or will be, adversely affected by SB 1566 may file an action directly with the Supreme Court within 60 days after the bill's effective date. The State cannot predict whether an action challenging SB 1566 will be filed with the Oregon Supreme Court or the potential outcome of such a challenge.
2018 Special Session. The Governor has called for a one day special session of the Legislative Assembly for May 21st, which coincides with regularly scheduled legislative days, a series of meetings that occur several times a year outside of the normal legislative schedule. The purpose of the session is to consider legislation to address differential tax treatment for sole proprietorships under Oregon law. According to a statement released by the Governor, an estimated 9,000 sole proprietorships in Oregon could qualify for this economic incentive. The State cannot predict whether any legislation will be adopted during the special session or what the potential effects on General Fund revenue would be from any adopted legislation.
PERS Task Force
The Governor established a task force (the "PERS Task Force") charged with examining options for reducing the PERS unfunded actuarial liability. The PERS Task Force delivered its report on November 1, 2017. The PERS Task Force focused its examination of potential solutions on state assets and ongoing concerns, dedication of one-time and unexpected funds coming to the State and direction of one-time and unexpected local government funds to pay down the UAL. The report provides a menu of potential sources of capital for reducing the UAL. Further analysis is required to determine whether any of the options outlined in the report would yield significant additional funding for PERS and represent acceptable public policies. The report is under review by the Governor and the Legislative Assembly. In response to the report, SB 1566 was introduced.
Initiatives, Referendum and Referrals
The Oregon Constitution, Article IV, Section 1, reserves to the people of the State (1) the initiative power to amend the Oregon Constitution or to enact State legislation by placing measures on the statewide general election ballot for consideration by the voters and (2) the referendum power to approve or reject at an election any act passed by the Legislative Assembly that does not become effective earlier than 90 days after the end of the legislative session. The Legislative Assembly may also refer an act to the voters for approval or rejection.
Any or all of Senate Bills 1528, 1529 and 1566 could be referred to the voters if sufficient signatures are gathered as described above. No petitions have been filed at this time. If one of more of the bills is referred to the voters, and the voters fail to approve the bill, the anticipated impact to General Fund revenues or the adjustments to the PERS funding, from the voter repealed bill would not be realized during the 20172019 biennium. In that event, the Legislative Assembly may meet or take other actions, if needed, to adjust the Legislatively Approved Budget for the 2017-2019 biennium.
Special Elections — Referendums
A special election was held on January 23, 2018 whereby Oregon voters upheld four new health care assessments imposed by HB 2391. Collectively, the assessments were expected to raise an additional $320 million in other fund revenues during the 2017-2019 biennium and became operative after the special election with an effective date of January 1, 2018.
ECONOMIC INFORMATION
The following information is derived from the June 2018 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast prepared by the OEA.
SUMMARY
The U.S. economy continues to perform well. Economic growth remains above potential and job gains are strong enough to pull down the unemployment rate even as more individuals are looking for a job. The business cycle is not yet waning and the near-term prospects for economic growth are good. The consensus of forecasters peg the probability of recession over the next year at just 15 percent. However, longer-run forecasts remain relatively muted, in part due to the impact of an aging population and the temporary provisions in the federal fiscal stimulus. From today's relatively strong cyclical vantage point, three real downside risks stand out. First is the Federal Reserve's ability to engineer a soft landing. Second is the potential for deteriorating international relations and trade. Third is the recent run-up in energy prices which crimp household budgets in the near-term. To date, actual constraints on growth appear to be minimal, but bear watching in a mature expansion.
In Oregon, the outlook remains bright as the economy continues to hit the sweet spot. Wages are rising faster than in the typical state, as are household incomes. That said, growth is slower today than a few years ago as the regional economy transitions down to more sustainable rates. While housing affordability is set to improve due to rising income and more new construction, the impact on household budgets and migration flows makes it a risk. All told, the forecast calls for ongoing growth and there are no real concerns seen in the Oregon data.
Oregon's General Fund revenues are heavily dependent upon personal income tax collections. As such, the April peak tax filing season often makes or breaks the state budget. This year's tax collections
came in at a healthy rate, somewhat faster than what was assumed in the March 2018 forecast. If not for the payment of kicker credits from the 2015-17 biennium, Oregon's growth would have ranked among the top handful of states.
Typically, year-end payments and refunds are the most difficult tax components to forecast. This season refunds will likely end around $150 million short of expectations, while payments closely matched the outlook. However, the biggest surprises came from usually stable sources -- quarterly estimated payments and withholdings.
2017 fourth-quarter estimated payments of personal income taxes were up nearly 50% relative to last year, and continued to post strong gains in early 2018. Advanced corporate tax payments have been up sharply in recent months as well, with the first quarter of 2018 coming in 79% larger than last year. Furthermore, large year-end bonuses are driving withholdings significantly above what recent wage growth alone could explain.
This strong growth across payment types was not unique to Oregon, with many other states reporting even stronger gains. That sort of uniformity is rare, and suggests that tax planning around the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is already affecting the timing of tax collections. Taxpayers rushed to take advantage of expiring breaks, including an uncapped deduction for state and local taxes paid, even as Oregon does not allow the prepayment of state taxes. Some of the recently strong revenue growth will no doubt evaporate going forward.
While changes in the timing of tax payments are already evident, it will take some time before it becomes clear how many taxpayers will change their filing status in light of TCJA provisions. Some workers could choose to file as businesses. Some businesses could change from pass-through entities into C-Corporations, or the other way around. While the exact magnitude of the tax law changes is uncertain, it is sure to be large. These changes are expected to directly add hundreds of millions of revenue dollars over the next few budget cycles.
Together with healthy economic growth and strong tax collections, law changes have helped push both personal income taxes and corporate income taxes over their kicker thresholds. If this outlook holds true, $555 million in personal income tax kicker credits will be paid out two years from now, and an additional $197 million will be dedicated to spending on K-12 education next biennium.
The recent passage of Senate Bill 1528 (discussed above under the 2018 heading Tax Legislation) to disconnect from Code Section 199A should substantially mitigate and offset a large portion of the revenue impact that would otherwise be caused by IRC Section 199A. As noted above, Oregon's Legislative Revenue Office estimates that disconnecting from IRC Section 199A will yield about $250 million in state tax revenue in the 2017-19 biennium and over $1 billion over the next six years.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Economic Summary
The U.S. economy continues to perform well. Economic growth remains above potential and job gains are strong enough to pull down the unemployment rate even as more individuals are looking for a job. Importantly, the business cycle is not yet waning and the near-term prospects for economic growth are good. The consensus of forecasters peg the probability of recession over the next year at just 15 percent. However, longer-run forecasts remain relatively muted, in part due to the impact of an aging population and the temporary provisions in the federal fiscal stimulus. From today's relatively strong cyclical vantage point, three real downside risks stand out. First is the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, its response to the fiscal stimulus, and ability to engineer a soft landing for the economy. Second is the potential for
deteriorating international relations creating a drag on overall economic growth. Third is the recent run-up in energy prices which crimp household budgets in the near-term. To date, actual constraints on growth appear to be minimal, but bear watching in a mature expansion.
In Oregon, the outlook remains bright as the economy continues to hit the sweet spot. Employment growth is enough to meet population gains and to absorb the workers coming back into the labor market. Wages are rising faster than in the typical state, as are household incomes. That said, growth is slower today than a few years ago as the regional economy transitions down to more sustainable rates. While housing affordability is set to improve in the coming years due to rising income and more new construction, the impact on household budgets and migration flows is a risk for the local economy. All told, the forecast calls for ongoing growth and there are no real worrisome signs seen in the Oregon data.
U.S. Economy
The current U.S. economic expansion turns nine years old next month, making it the second longest on record. Given the ongoing healthy data flow, more economists now forecast this expansion to eventually surpass the record-setting 1990s in length, which was exactly 10 years long. If anything, near-term risks to the outlook skew to the upside given the federal fiscal stimulus hitting the economy this year and next. However, the combination of rising interest rates and fiscal stimulus that is set to unwind in a couple of years has a growing chorus of forecasters more concerned over the medium term. Such a scenario is not a foregone conclusion as policymakers, the Federal Reserve in particular, can adjust course as needed. For now the outlook remains bright. There are no real worrisome sings seen in the data yet.
Even so, the economy is beginning to run into some supply side constraints. Chief among these issues is labor. Pick any standard measure and the labor market is tight — the unemployment rate, new claims for unemployment insurance, job openings, quits rate, and the like. However, inflation and wage growth is not yet as high as in past cycles. As such some economists are lamenting the death of the Phillips Curve, or the idea there is a tradeoff between unemployment and inflation (or wages). If the labor market is really tight, as many measures indicate, shouldn't we see faster wage growth? One answer is that the unemployment rate likely overstates the strength, and tightness of the labor market today. An alternative measure that just looks at the share of prime working-age adults with a job continues to indicate there is room to run, and some slack remaining. So-called prime-age EPOP, for the employment to population ratio, remains a percentage point lower than prior to the Great Recession and a couple percentage points lower than the late 1990s. Using this measure of the labor market, or rather its opposite, the share of prime-age adults who are not working, shows the relationship between wage growth and slack remains strong. Wage growth in recent years is exactly what one would expect. That said, other factors identified in recent economic research like lower inflation expectations, slower productivity gains, monopsony power of firms, nominal wage rigidity, and fewer workers switching jobs are also impacting wage growth in recent years and over the long-term.
Most encouraging is the fact that the improving economy is drawing workers who were previously on the sidelines back into the labor market. The flows of those who one month say they are not actively looking for work but the next month have a job continue to be large. And labor force participation rates for working-age Americans continue to rise. The economy is seeing a labor force response. That said, labor is harder to find today than a few years ago. As detailed previously, there are at three large groups from which more workers may come in the future. These include those with self-reported disabilities being a barrier to work, stay-at-home moms of elementary school-age children, and teenagers and young adults enrolled in higher education, particularly two year programs.
Another potential supply side constraint facing the economy, in large part due to federal policy proposals, is that of international relations. The U.S. is working to adjust terms of trade with both our closest neighbors in NAFTA in addition to proposing tariffs on some goods from China. Given that Oregon
is more trade-dependent than the typical state, China is our number one destination for exports, and Canada is our number two destination, any substantial revisions to trade relations would impact the regional economy to a larger degree than the typical state. In fact, Oregon's trade exposure to China is among the largest in the nation. However, much of our direct trade reflects within firm shipments of high-tech goods that are not yet listed as targets of the proposed tariffs.
When examining the specific products that are targeted, Oregon's trade exposure to China is in-line with the typical state. Even this may overstate Oregon's direct exposure, due to data limitations. Right now, approximately half of the tariff-impacted exports from Oregon can be tied to automobiles and soybeans. Oregon is neither an auto manufacturing hub nor a major grower of soybeans. However both products do flow through the state on their way to the rest of the world. As such, should these exports decline there would still be a local impact due to the transportation aspects of loading and shipping products around the world.
The good news is that the economy continues to expand and looks to have further room to run in the near-term. That said, while expansions do not die of old age, they do typically die due to mistakes and policies that slow or even snuff out growth. For the first time this expansion, a plausible recession scenario over the medium-term is beginning to come into focus. The heart of it lies in the fact that the federal stimulus unwinds in a couple years, moving from a new positive to a net drag on growth. Furthermore the Federal Reserve is in a tightening cycle and signals their intention to continue to raise interest rates. This combination of fiscal and monetary policy, at best, would slow growth. Provided the economy truly is near full employment and at capacity, slower growth is just what the doctored ordered to head off inflationary pressures and grow at a sustainable pace. However, engineering the so-called soft landing is very difficult in practice. Restrictive fiscal and monetary policy may be more likely to send the economy into recession. Of course this is far from a foregone conclusion. Policymakers, in particular the "data dependent" Fed, can adjust course as needed.
Besides the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, another common issue that can derail an economic expansion is an oil shock, or energy prices more broadly. Today, oil prices are rising quickly and are up around 50 percent relative to a year ago. Given the big increase in U.S. oil production in the past 15 years, rising prices are no longer just a drag on growth. In fact, some recent research indicates that high oil prices are now a positive of the U.S. economy overall due to wages and business investment in new mining equipment. That said, rising gas prices still crimp household budgets, slowing consumer spending for those in the middle and bottom part of the distribution in particular.
To help put this impact in perspective, it is very likely that higher gas prices in 2018 are enough to wipe out any tax savings from the Tax Cut and Jobs Act for lower-income households. And these higher prices will likely negate a quarter to a half of the tax savings for middle-income households as well.
Oregon Economy
Oregon's expansion continues to outperform the typical state due to our industrial structure and ability to attract and retain young, working-age households. That said, job growth continues to slow as the regional economy transitions down to more sustainable rates. This slowdown is not driven by one or two industries in particular, but is broad-based across nearly all sectors and all regions within the state. Encouragingly, job growth remain strong enough to keep up with population gains and to absorb the workers coming back into the labor market.
While the tight labor market continues to drive a virtuous economic cycle as local wage growth outpaces the typical state, like the U.S. overall, it is harder for businesses to find workers. This tight labor pool is due to both the cyclical strength of the economy, and due to rising Baby Boomer retirements. As such, these conditions are expected to remain until the next recession.
For firms looking to expand and growth with the economy, they must dig deeper into their resume stacks and hire candidates they may have previously passed over. During and after the Great Recession we know employers upskilled many positions. That is they added additional education or experience requirements for new hires. Some of this was so firms could be more productive during tough economic times. But some upskilling was also used more as an applicant screening tool for human resource reasons.
In a tight labor market, expectations are for employers to downskill many of these positions in order to fill the openings. Given the increase in employment rates across all age groups and all levels of educational attainment in Oregon, we know downskilling is happening to some degree. New hires today generally do have less formal education than a few years ago.
However, was is surprising in the hiring data is that the industries with higher levels of educational attainment have seen the largest declines. And the industries with lower levels of educational attainment, like retail and leisure and hospitality, have seen their college graduate share stay steady or even rise during the economic expansion.
One possibility for this pattern could simply be the industry mix of job growth. Sectors with lower levels of educational attainment are hiring in greater numbers today than a few years ago, but this accounts for only a minor share of the overall decline. Another possibility may simply be a shift in the occupations that businesses are hiring. After running lean for years, firms may now be filling out their office support staff, their sales teams, and the like in greater numbers. This may or may not count as true downskilling, but it would certainly alter hiring patterns.
Finally, one labor issue that continues to crop up is drug testing. At least anecdotally, more firms are reporting trouble finding workers who can pass a drug test. Given the tight labor market, and legal recreational marijuana up and down the Left Coast, these reports are a bit surprising. It may be that the pool of available applicants has shifted; that individuals who can pass drug test already have a job. It may be for insurance-related reasons that employers are ensuring they have a drug-free workplace, even if it means monitoring their employees behavior on their own time. However it is possible that these anecdotal reports reflect a broader increase in drug usage that would be both an economic and societal problem.
Housing: Affordability and Migration
Oregon is a magnet state. Our ability to attract, and retain young, working-age households is an economic tailwind ever and always. It ensures an ample supply of labor for local businesses, and an increase in demand of consumer services. As such, any event that restricts migration has clear implications for the longer-run outlook. And when examining surveys of why people move, most do so for housing and job reasons. Given Oregon's history we know migration flows dry up during recessions and return in expansions.
One growing concern is that eroding housing affordability may slow or even choke of migration flows as households are unable to afford to move to Oregon. While this scenario remains a concern and risk to the outlook, to date it does not yet appear to be a real constraint on growth. For example, the Portland region continues to see net in-migration among lower-income households in recent years.
That said, the housing crunch has clearly displaced many lower-income households within the region, by pushing them toward the edges of the metro, and into east Multnomah County in particular. However, Portland's lower-income households are not packing up and leaving the region entirely for lower-cost metros like Boise, or Dallas, or the like. This displacement, and sorting within the region causes plenty of economic and societal issues in terms of geographic disparities, mismatches between where people live and where they work, broader transit access, and the like.
Another fallout from increased segregation due to the housing crunch may be lower levels of economic mobility in the future. The potential is real for the role model effect or peer impact from better-integrated communities, along with access to higher quality schools. These characteristics, along with a larger middle class, strong families, and greater social capital, do correlate across regions in terms of economic mobility. While the Portland area is better-integrated than most large metros around the country, the trends in the past decade are certainly towards more displacement and segregation. All told, the silver lining in the housing market thus far is that there is no pick-up in out-migration, nor in those specifically leaving for housing-related reasons. Similarly, another housing-related issue that is coming to the forefront in recent years is that of homelessness.
Oregon's Labor Market
The Office of Economic Analysis examines four main sources for jobs data: the monthly payroll employment survey, the monthly household survey, monthly withholding tax receipts and the quarterly census of employment and wages. Right now all four measures of the labor market are improving. Jobs are being added, albeit at a slower rate. Wages are rising, both in aggregate and for each worker. The unemployment is under what can be considered full employment for Oregon.
As DAS has been discussing, or more accurately, warning over the past few years, the pattern of unemployment rate changes does not likely reflect the overall pattern of growth in the Oregon economy.
The preliminary data for 2015, 2016 and 2017 all showed the Oregon unemployment rate going on a roller coaster ride. A few months of extreme declines to start each year were followed by huge increases over the next few months. These types of increases in the unemployment rate have only been seen during recessions. These wild swings have largely been revised away each year during the annual benchmarking process (i.e. revisions). This latest round, for the 2017 data, was no exception.
That said, the Oregon unemployment rate has now essentially stopped declining in the past 16 or so months. It has hovered right around 4.1 percent during this period. What this indicates is that job growth has slowed to match population and labor force gains in the past year or so. Expectations are for this relative pattern to continue in the near future.
More importantly, wages in Oregon remain relatively strong, although different measures have diverged over the past year or two. Withholding collections, which matter the most to DAS given the revenue forecast, continue to see healthy gains. After slowing in 2016 and 2017, along with slower employment growth, withholdings have picked up in the first quarter of 2018, likely a result of federal tax policy. Withholding growth has cooled thus far in the second quarter, more in-line with expectations.
However, measures of economic wages remain below withholding, which does include revenue from bonuses, stock options and the like. Withholding is more than just wages. However the sizable gap between these wage measures is an outlier and something DAS will continue to monitor. For now, expectations are for ongoing healthy wage gains in Oregon, and for upward revisions to the BEA measure of wages.
Overall, getting a handle of the health of Oregon's labor market is being somewhat complicated by technical issues within the underlying payroll jobs data. For this reason the employment data in DAS's forecast is adjusted for two important technical purposes: seasonality at the detailed industry level and the upcoming benchmark revisions'. Specifically, DAS uses the benchmarked, or revised employment data through 2017q4 and imputes the 2018q1 employment data based upon the available preliminary Oregon estimates, national data, and DAS's economic forecast model. As such, for this quarterly forecast, the first pure forecast period is 2018q2.
In the first quarter, total nonfarm employment increased 2.0 percent over the past year with the private sector growing at 2.3 percent and the public sector at 0.3 percent. These rates of growth are a clear step down from the full-throttle rates seen in recent years, however still remain faster than needed to keep pace with population gains so far.
So far in recovery, the large service sector industries have generally led job growth in terms of the number of jobs added and with above-average growth rates. These include jobs in professional and business services, health services, and leisure and hospitality industries. These three industries have gained 14,500 jobs in the past year and account for 39 percent of all job gains across the state. The good news is that this share has fallen as the expansion continues and other industries add jobs, which was not the case earlier in the expansion.
Currently, ten major industries are at all-time highs. Private sector food manufacturing, education, and health never really suffered recessionary losses — although their growth did slow during the recession. Professional and business services and leisure and hospitality have each regained all of their losses and are leading growth today. In recent quarters retail emploment, other services, wholesale, and transportation, warehousing and utilities, in addition to the public sector have surpassed their pre-recession levels and are at all-time highs. The nine private sector industries at all-time highs account for 62 percent of all statewide jobs. The public sector accounts for an additional 16 percent of all jobs.
With the Great Recession being characterized by a housing bubble, it is no surprise to see wood products, construction, mining and logging and financial services (losses are mostly real estate agents) among the hardest hit industries. These housing and related sectors are now recovering, although they still have much ground to make up. Transportation equipment manufacturing suffered the worst job cuts and is likely a structural decline due to the RV industry's collapse'. With that being said, the subsectors tied to aerospace are doing better and the ship and boat building subsector is growing again. Metals and machinery manufacturing, along with mining and logging, have shown the largest improvements since the depths of the recession.
Coming off such a deep recession, goods-producing industries exhibited stronger growth than in past cycles. While all manufacturing subsectors have seen some growth, they are unlikely to fully regain all of their lost jobs. The good news, certainly in the short-term, is that much of the manufacturing sector has returned to growth in recent months following declines a year ago. All told, Oregon manufacturers typically outperform those in other states, in large part due to the local industry make-up. Oregon does not rely upon old auto makers or textile mills. The state's manufacturing industry is comprised of newer technologies like aerospace and semiconductors. Similarly Oregon's food processing industry continues to boom.
All told, each of Oregon's major industries has experienced some growth in recovery, albeit uneven. As the economy continues to recover there will be net winners and net losers when it comes to jobs, income and sales. Business cycles have a way of restructuring the economy.
Leading Indicators
After more than two years of no real sustained movement up or down, both of the Oregon-specific composite leading indicators have broken through the malaise to the upside in recent quarters. Previously many of the manufacturing, or goods-producing indicators languished, while all other pointed toward growth. As the manufacturing rebound continues, now nearly all indicators are flashing green. As such, the overall indices are likewise signaling growth.
As of today no individual indicators are showing no growth. In recent quarters both Help Wanted Ads and the Oregon Dollar Index were flashing warning signs for those indicator series. However
businesses are posting more job openings and the dollar is depreciating. Among the indicators that are currently slowing, none are particularly worrisome from an economic growth perspective. The fact that housing permits and new construction continues to increase slowly in fits and starts is worrisome from an affordability point of view, but it also suggests the housing expansion still has legs to run.
Across both aggregate leading indicators there are no real signs for concerns at the moment. This is one reason economic forecasters are sanguine about the risk of recession in the immediate future, outside of unforeseen geopolitical shocks and the like. University of Oregon professor Jeremy Piger has created a real time probability of recession4 model, and finds there is just 0.1 percent chance the U.S. has entered into a recession. However, another recession will come, of that we can be sure. IHS Global Insight puts the probability of recession over the next year at 20 percent, and the Wall Street Journal consensus is at 15 percent.
Hopefully Oregon's leading indicators will give a signal in advance of the next recession, which neither is doing today. While past experience is no guarantee of future performance, Oregon's leading indicator series do have a good track record in their relatively brief history. Both series flattened out in 2006 and began their decline in advance of the Great Recession. Similarly both Oregon series reached their nadir in March 2009, a few months before the technical end of the recession (June 2009 per NBER) and about 9 months in advance of job growth returning to Oregon.
Short-term Outlook
While Oregon's economic expansion continues, growth has slowed and stabilized. In recent years, the state has enjoyed robust, full-throttle rates of job gains in the 3-3.5 percent range, or nearly 5,000 jobs per month. No longer is this the case. Oregon is expected to continue to see healthy job gains — a bit more than 2,000 per month or about 2 percent over the remainder of the 2017-19 biennium — but the state is now past its peak growth rates for this expansion. Importantly, such gains remain strong enough to hold unemployment down and account for ongoing population growth.
After these near-term job gains, longer-run demographic trends weigh on growth to a larger degree. While consistent with the general character of recent forecasts, there are a few minor revisions to the fundamental outlook and one large technical revision.
Employment is revised up by 2-4,000 jobs in 2020 and beyond due to a slightly stronger outlook for growth. Somewhat larger revisions are seen for personal income and inflation. Personal income data from the BEA continues to come in below previous expectations. In large part this reflects the previously discussed gap between withholdings and other measures of wages. Nevertheless, one result is that the outlook for personal income has been revised lower to match the data. Additionally, the outlook calls for slightly faster inflation today than last forecast. Inflation has firmed in recent quarters, and given the strong economy it is expected to increase a bit faster moving forward. Combined, these two adjustments lower real, or inflation-adjusted income to a larger degree.
The large technical revision has to do with how home health workers are treated in the employment data. A decade ago, such workers were counted as independent contractors. As such they would be counted in the household survey but not the employer survey. Back in 2010, these home health workers were brought into the employer survey, or the Current Employment Statistics (CES) as government employees. While many of these workers were paid via public sector programs, such employees really were not government workers per se. Beginning in 2018, home health workers are now being counted as private sector health workers. The end result here is that the forecast now shows government employment in Oregon declining by nearly 5 percent in 2018, while private sector health care employment grows by 10 percent in 2018. Absent this reclassification, the underlying outlooks for both the private and public sectors remains essentially unchanged.
The state's new minimum wage law, passed during the 2016 legislative session, will also impact the Oregon economy over the forecast horizon. Using estimates provided by the Oregon Legislative Revenue Office, along with the academic literature, DAS's outlook includes a slowdown in job growth due to the higher minimum wage moving forward. While the impact is small when compared to the size of the Oregon economy, it does result in approximately 40,000 fewer jobs in 2025 than would have been the case absent the legislation. DAS is not predicting outright job losses due to the higher minimum wage, however we are expecting future growth to be slower as a result. In the near term, the higher minimum wage boosts overall state income as low-wage workers receive raises. Over the medium term, employers are expected to adjust to the higher wages and increase worker productivity, possibly via capital for labor substitutions. DAS has incorporated these overall effects into the outlook for wages and in the industries which employ the largest numbers of low-wage workers. These include the obvious like leisure and hospitality, and retail trade, but also health care and food processing manufacturing, among others.
Should this overall economic outlook come to pass, it will have matched the equivalent of previous expansions in Oregon. Given demographic trends today, particularly the aging Baby Boomer cohort, job growth of 3 percent is considered full throttle. In decades past, growth of 4 or 5 percent was common during expansions in Oregon, however that time period also coincided with the Baby Boomers entering their prime working years. Today the opposite is occurring. Even so, demographic trends are not all bad, as the even larger cohort of Millennials are currently entering their prime working years. The net effect is overall lower rates of labor force and economic growth, due to demographics.
Private sector growth, measured by the number of jobs created, will be dominated by the large, service sector industries like professional and business services, leisure and hospitality and health. Nevertheless, goods-producing industries, while smaller, had previously been growing at above-average rates. Expectations in recent forecasts have been that these goods-producing industries would slow. Growth over the next few years would be considerably less than that seen in the past few years. Even construction is expected to add jobs at a slower pace even as the housing rebound continues. This is in part due to the fact that growth must cool off after the exceptionally strong gains in construction in recent years. Additionally construction employment growth has far outpaced increases in new home construction. Natural Resources (mining and logging) are somewhat of a technical exception. What looks like less of a deceleration in employment growth in natural resources is merely a return to growth rates seen in past forecasts.
Additionally, manufacturing is expected to see slower gains in the coming years. The good news is that after sustaining losses during the middle of 2016, manufacturing employment in Oregon has started to add jobs again. As the manufacturing cycle continues to strengthen some, additional gains are expected. This growth is expected to be strongest among the state's food processors, and beverage manufacturers, predominantly breweries. That said, any global weakening or further strengthening of the dollar will weigh further on growth.
Public sector employment at the local, county and state level for both education and non-education workers is growing in Oregon, as state and local revenues continue to improve along with the economy. Over the forecast horizon, government employment is expected to grow roughly in line with population growth and the increased demand for public services, albeit just a hair faster than population growth alone. One risk to the outlook is the Oregon Supreme Court decision which reversed earlier PERS changes enacted by the Legislature. The extent to which PERS will impact hiring by local and state entities is unknown, but it is a risk to the outlook. Also note the reclassification of home health workers out of the public sector and into private health care employment in the outlook, beginning in 2018.
Along with an improving labor market, stronger personal income gains are here, although tax law changes have pushed around growth rates in the recent past (see the expiring Bush tax cuts and the fiscal
cliff) and may do so again moving forward. Personal income is forecasted to be 5.1 percent in 2018, 6.0 percent in 2019, before tapering off to 5.4 percent in 2020 and averaging 4.8 percent per year through 2027.
As the economy continues to improve, household formation is increasing too, which will help drive up demand for new houses. Household formation was suppressed earlier in the recovery, however the improving economy and increase in migration have returned in full force. Even as more young Oregonians are living at home, as the Millennials continue to age beyond their early 20s, demand for housing will increase as well.
Housing starts in the first quarter totaled 24,100 at an annual pace, driven in large part by a run-up in multifamily permit activity in recent quarters. Expectations are that this represents a one-time surge, with housing starts cooling in the coming quarters as they resume their long-run march higher. Overall a level of about 21,000 housing starts is the long-run average for the state prior to the housing bubble. The forecast calls for moderate to strong growth in the coming few years with starts reaching just over 22,000 in 2018, 22,900 in 2019 and 24,200 in 2020. Over the extended horizon, starts are expected to average around 24,000 per year to meet demand for a larger population and also, partially, to catch-up for the underbuilding that has occurred in recent years. As of today, new home construction is cumulatively about one year behind the stable growth levels of prior decades even after accounting for the overbuilding during the boom.
Forecast Risks
The economic and revenue outlook is never certain. DAS will continue to monitor and recognize the potential impacts of risk factors on the Oregon economy. Although far from comprehensive, we have identified several major risks now facing the Oregon economy in the list below:
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U.S. Economy. While Oregon is more volatile than the nation overall, the state has never missed a U.S. recession or a U.S. expansion. In fact, Oregon's business cycle is perfectly aligned with the nation's, at least when measuring peak and trough dates for total nonfarm employment. If anything, Oregon actually leads the U.S. by a month or two. The fact that there are a few worrisome trends at the U.S. level and the slowdown has hit Oregon means there should be some concerns about the outlook. Should the U.S. fall into recession, Oregon will too. That said, should the U.S. economy accelerate following the lifting of headwinds, Oregon's economy should receive a similar boost as well.
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Housing affordability. Even as the housing market recovers, new supply has not kept up with demand (both from new households and investor activity). This applies to both the rental and ownership sides of the market. As such, prices have risen considerably and housing (in)affordability is becoming a larger risk to the outlook. Expectations are that new construction will pick up in the next year or three, to match the increase in demand, which will alleviate some price pressures. However to the extent that supply does not match demand, home prices and rents increasing significantly faster than income or wages for the typical household is a major concern. While not included in the baseline outlook, significantly worse housing affordability may dampen future growth given Oregon's reliance on net in-migration.
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Global Spillovers Both Up and Down. The international list of risks seems to change by the day: sovereign debt problems in Europe, equity and property bubbles in places like Canada, South America and Asia, political unrest in the Middle East and Ukraine, nuclear arsenal concerns with North Korea, and commodity price spikes and inflationary pressures in emerging markets. In particular, with China now a top destination for Oregon exports, the state of the Chinese economy — and its real estate market, or public debt burden — has spillover effects to
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the Oregon economy. Any economic slowing in Asia is a potential threat to the Pacific Northwest.
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Federal fiscal policy. The uncertainty regarding federal fiscal policy remains a risk. Some policies are likely to impact Oregon than the typical state, while others maybe not as much. The good news for Oregon is that outside of outright land ownership, the federal government has a relatively small physical presence in the state. This means that direct spending reductions are less likely to hurt Oregon. Of course, it also limits the local benefit from any potential increases in federal spending, as was recently passed by Congress in early 2018. In terms of federal grants as a share of state revenue, Oregon ranks 29th highest. For federal procurement as a share of the economy, Oregon ranks 48th highest. Oregon ranks below average in terms of military-dependent industries as well. The one area that Oregon ranks above average is in terms of direct federal employment, ranking 19th highest among all states. Oregon also is exposed to an above-average share of federal transfer payments to households. Transportation funding is also a major local concern. Overall, the direct impact may be less than in other states but the impact will be felt nevertheless, particularly as our closest neighboring states have large federal and military workforces.
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Climate and Natural Disasters. Weather forecasting is even more difficult than economic forecasting a year or two into the future. While the severity, duration and timing of catastrophic events like earthquakes, wildfires and droughts are difficult to predict, we do know they impact regional economies. Fires damage forests and tourism. Droughts in particular impact our agricultural sector and rural economies to a larger degree. Whenever Cascadia, the big earthquake, hits, we know our regional economy and its infrastructure will be crippled and in need of immediate repairs. Longer-term issues like the potential impact of climate change on domestic migration patterns are likewise hard to predict and outside DAS's forecast horizon. There is a reasonable expectation that migration flows will continue to be strong as the rest of the country becomes less habitable over time.
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Commodity price inflation. Always worrisome is the possibility of higher oil (and gasoline) prices. While consumer spending has held up pretty consistently in this recovery, anytime there is a surge in gas prices, it eats away at consumers' disposable income, leaving less income to spend on all other, non-energy related goods and services.
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Federal timber policy. Even with a temporary reinstatement of payments, it has been and it is clear that federal policymakers will not reinstate the program the same as before, however negotiations are ongoing for more sustainable timber harvests and related revenue. In the meantime, reductions in public employment and services are being felt in the impacted counties. For more information from a historical perspective, see two recent blog posts, here and here.
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Initiatives, referendums, and referrals. Generally, the ballot box and legislative changes bring a number of unknowns that could have sweeping impacts on the Oregon economy and revenue picture.
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Alternative Scenarios
The baseline forecast is our outlook of the most likely path for the Oregon economy. As with any forecast, however, many other scenarios are possible. In conjunction with the Legislative Revenue Office, this forecast provides three alternative scenarios, which are modeled on growth patterns over previous business cycles.
Optimistic Scenario:
The recovery gathers steam and pulls the economy into a stronger cyclical expansion. The relatively lackluster economic growth seen in the earlier stages of recovery, the manufacturing weakness in 2015 and 2016 and the recent slowing in U.S. personal income all recede into the rearview mirror of history and the U.S. economy builds momentum throughout 2018 and into 2019. The economy is soon firing on all cylinders. Economic growth is above potential in 2018, resulting in stronger job and income gains. This stronger growth leads to more consumer spending and more business investment.
In Oregon, job gains are broad based with strong growth in all private sector industries. The unemployment rate remains lower than under the baseline scenario as individuals are able to find employment more readily and income growth accelerates. The labor force participation gap closes and even turns positive. The increase in employment and income support a self-sustaining economic expansion in which new income fuels increased consumer spending (and debt reduction) which begets further increases in employment. Such an expansion increases housing demand as newly employed households (and increasing income for existing households) find their own homes after doubling-up with family and friends during the recession. This results in new construction returns to normal levels about a year earlier than the baseline.
Mild Recession Scenario:
The Oregon employment and GDP grow slowly in 2018. The housing market stalls (again), removing one driver of growth. Strained trade relations result in falling exports, business confidence tumbles and so does capital spending. The U.S. dollar strengthens, chocking off the manufacturing cycle. These factors are enough weight on the recovery that by mid- or late-2018 the economy slides back into recession. Job losses ensue and while not severe - about 48,000 jobs in Oregon when it is all said and done - it takes a toll on business income, housing starts and personal income. The unemployment rate returns to nearly 7 percent. The net effect of the mild recession is an extended period of prolonged economic weakness, not unlike Japan's so-called Lost Decade(s). Although inflation is expected to remain positive, a key difference.
Severe Recession Scenario:
After expanding for 9 years at relatively lackluster growth rates, the U.S. economy falls back into recession. Industrial production declines and the slower personal income growth in the U.S. worsens. Strained trade relations develop into an all-out trade war. The Fed, already lacking in traditional monetary policy ammunition, is not able to stave off the impact. While the catalyst may be different, the economic effect is similar to late 2008 and early 2009, although not quite as severe when the dust settles. This is little comfort when the unemployment spikes back to 10 percent and nearly 135,000 Oregonians lose their jobs by late-2019. Besides the domestic economic headwinds and Federal Reserve tightening, the likely culprit in this scenario is either a meltdown of the financial markets sparked by some geopolitical shock, or quickly rising inflation in part due to the fiscal stimulus. Economic growth in the U.S., while fairly steady as of late, is not nearly strong enough to withstand an external financial shock of this magnitude, nor a Federal Reserve quickly raising rates to fight inflation. Further economic effects of a recession this size are personal income losses of around 4 percent, about three-quarters the size of the Great Recession losses in Oregon. Housing starts plummet to near historical low levels of construction and home prices decline further. On the bright side, when construction does rebound, it will result in a surge of new home building that will rise above the state's long term average level of building due to pent-up demand for housing and that the state will have under built housing during this time period.
Extended Outlook
IHS Economics projects Oregon's economy to fare well relative to the rest of the country in the coming years. The state's Real Gross State Product is projected to be the seventh fastest among all states across the country in terms of growth with gains averaging 2.6 percent through 2023. Total employment is expected to be the eighth strongest among all states at an annualized 1.3 percent, while manufacturing employment will be the fourth fastest in the country at 1.1 percent. Total personal income growth is expected to be 4.8 percent per year, the thirteenth fastest among all states, according to IHS Economics.
DAS is equally bullish in terms of Oregon's relative growth prospects. Much of Oregon's advantage comes from population growth, specifically the ability to attract and retain young, working-age households. In recent years, IHS had been forecasting Oregon population growth of around 1 percent annually. DAS expects it to average 1.3 per year over the next handful of years. In recent months, IHS has raised their Oregon population forecast to 1.2 percent annually, which is very close to DAS's expectations. As such, our overall economic outlooks are now similar.
OEA has identified three main avenues of economic growth that are important to continue to monitor over the extended horizon: the state's dynamic labor supply, the state's industrial structure and the current number of start-ups, or new businesses.
Oregon has typically benefited from an influx of households from other states, including an ample supply of skilled workers. Households continue to move to Oregon even when local jobs are scarce, as long as the economy is equally bad elsewhere, particularly in California. Relative housing prices also contribute to migration flows in and out of the state. For Oregon's recent history — data available from 1976 — the labor force in the state has both grown faster than the nation overall and the labor force participation rate has been higher. However while the past two years have brought considerable improvements there remain potentially worrisome signs, particularly when the next recession comes.
First, on the bright side, all of the recessionary-induced declines in the labor force itself have been reversed in the recent years. Oregon's labor force has never been larger. However, the participation rate remains a little lower than expected, when adjusting for the size of the population and the aging demographics. Oregon's participation rate continues to rebound today, which is great news, however any participation gap is still cause for concern. While much of the past decade's patterns can be attributed to the severe nature of the Great Recession, and even the lackluster housing boom itself, some damage is likely permanent. The longer the expansion continues without seeing rising participation rates among some segments of the population, the more likely the damage is permanent. A stronger economy and a longer expansion will minimize any permanent damage.
All told, DAS's baseline outlook calls for some continued improvement in the near-term for both the labor force participation rate and the employment to population ratio. These gains are due to the shorter run cyclical rebound in the economy, before longer-run demographic trends will weigh on these measures. Focusing just on the prime working age cohorts reveals stronger improvements and a better outlook.
Oregon's industrial structure is very similar to the U.S. overall, even moreso than nearly all other states. That said, Oregon's manufacturing industry is larger and weighted toward semiconductors and wood products, relative to the nation which is much more concentrated in transportation equipment (autos and aerospace). However, these industries which have been Oregon's strength in both the recent past and historically, are now expected to grow the slowest moving forward. Productivity and output from the state's technology producers is expected to continue growing quickly, however employment is not likely to follow suit. Similarly, the timber industry remains under pressure from both market based conditions and federal
regulations. Barring major changes to either, the slow growth to downward trajectory of the industry in Oregon is likely to continue.
With that being said, certainly not all hope is lost. Those top industries in Oregon comprise approximately 7 percent of all statewide employment. And many industries in which Oregon has a larger concentration that then typical state are expected to perform quite well over the coming decade. These industries include management of companies, food and beverage manufacturing, published software along with some health care related firms.
The state's real challenges and opportunities will come in industries in which Oregon does not have a relatively large concentration. These industries, like consulting, computer system design, financial investment, and scientific R&D, are expected to grow quickly in the decade ahead. To the extent that Oregon is behind the curve, then the state may not fully realize these gains if they rely more on clusters and concentrations of similar firms that may already exist elsewhere in the country.
Another area of potential concern that may impact longer term economic growth is that of new business formation. Over the past few years, the number of new business license applications with the Oregon Secretary of State have begun to grow again and even accelerate. However data available from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics clearly indicate that entrepreneurship and business formation remain at subdued levels and rates.
The share of all businesses that are start-ups, either in Oregon or across the nation, is effectively at an all-time low, with data starting in the late 1970s. Associated start-up employment follows a similar pattern. The concern is that new businesses are generally considered the source of innovation and new ideas, products and services that help propel economic growth. To the extent that fewer start-ups indicate that R&D more broadly is not being undertaken, slower growth is to be expected moving forward. However, if the larger firms that have won out in today's marketplace are investing in R&D and making those innovations themselves, then the worries about the number of start-ups today is overstated. It can be hard to say which is the correct view. However seeing these longer run, downward trends in new business formation warrants, at the very least, concern about future growth prospects.
Finally, Oregon also enjoys the long-term advantages of low electricity costs; a central location between the large markets of California, Vancouver and Asia; clean water; low business rents and living costs when compared to other Left Coast locations; and an increasingly diverse industrial base.
One long-run concern for policymakers, think tanks and Oregon's economy is that very little progress on raising per capita income is projected out to 2027. In and of itself, a higher per capita income level would better fund public services for citizens. The benefit side of the state's relatively low income figures is that local firms do not have to pay higher wages, thus helping support the firms' balance sheets as well. It is not purely a lose-lose proposition. The Oregon Employment Department has published6 a detailed look at Oregon's per capita income.
Today, Oregon's average wage relative to the nation is at its highest point since the mills closed in the 1980s. While some industries are seeing stronger growth, these gains are broad-based across regions and industries in Oregon. Similarly, Oregon's per capita personal income is at its highest relative point since the dotcom crash.
In terms of the outlook, expectations are that wages will remain at this high watermark but not increase much further, at least relative to the nation. The primary reason for this is that Oregon's average wages have already accelerated in recent years, even as U.S. wages are just now picking up. DAS expects Oregon's average wage to continue to increase by 4 percent per year. However as the U.S. accelerates closer to Oregon's annual rate, Oregon's growth advantage in recent years will lessen.
As for the per capita personal income outlook, expectations are that some progress will continue to be made. One major factor influencing these trends is the relative incomes at the very top of the distribution. Make no mistake, Oregon's highest-income households have done well financially. However incomes at the top of the national distribution have increased even further. This gap among the richest households is large enough to weigh on Oregon's overall per capita income figures.
The good news is that median incomes in Oregon have not eroded over time relative to the nation. That means the typical household in Oregon is not continually becoming worse off relative to the typical American household. This difference of trends at various points along the income distribution indicates a more complicated economic story is unfolding. Yes, Oregon's per capita personal income has eroded over the past generation. However that erosion is not seen among the typical household or for the typical worker. Given the distribution issues and the economic outlook, Oregon's per capita personal income is not expected to catch the national average.
Regional Comparisons
A common refrain heard across Oregon in recent years is that the population growth is unprecedented. This is usually in the context of the housing market and explaining away the fundamental lack of supply and only pointing toward demand as the reason for rising prices. However, population growth in recent years for the vast majority of the state is very precendented. Yes, growth is generally faster than what was experienced in the mid-2000s, but is on par with the growth experienced in the 1970s and 1990s. Individuals and families have been moving to the Pacific Northwest since before Lewis & Clark. Population growth and migration is nothing new.
That said, there are a few exceptions where growth in recent years really is about as fast as it ever has been. In particular the City of Portland is truly seeing unprecedented growth in its modern history. One has to go back to the early 1900s to see growth like this in the City itself. However the rest of the Portland MSA certainly is not growth that fast, leaving the region overall seeing similar patterns to the state. Other areas experiencing near historic gains in population include Baker, Clatsop, Hood River, and Deschutes counties.
State Comparisons
Homelessness is a real societal issue that can be hard to address, at least in part due to the transient nature of some of these individuals and families. As such it difficult to get good data and information on the homeless population and trends over time. The best available information comes from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's annual point-in-time estimates. These efforts represent a count of both the sheltered and unsheltered populations on one specific night each year, usually in January. The sheltered population includes those in emergency shelters and in transitional housing. Such figures likely represent an undercount of the true homeless population. They also do not include those that are housing insecure, or live in crowded housing situations, where a housing unit has more people than it does non-bathroom rooms.
Over the past decade, homelessness, at least when measured by this imperfect HUD estimate, has declined by 10 to 20 percent across much of the nation. The same is true here in Oregon as well. Some researchers point toward federal policies around Housing First, and Rapid Re-Housing for some of these long-run improvements in homelessness. The goal of these programs is to find permanent housing as quickly as possible for the homeless, and then provide wraparound services for their other needs.
However, in recent years homelessness is again on the rise along the West Coast. California, Oregon, and Washington have experienced 3 of the 5 largest increases since 2014, with New York and Wyoming rounding out the Top 5.
Research shows there are a number of reasons and factors for why individuals and families experience homelessness. Some are more societal in nature, like domestic violence, mental health issues, and drug addictions. Some are more economic in nature including insufficient income due to unemployment, low-wage or part-time work and the like.
However, at its root, homelessness is fundamentally about housing costs. These individuals and families literally cannot afford a roof over their heads, even as other issues complicate their lives. There is a relationship across states and metropolitan regions between rents and the share of the population experiencing homelessness. High housing costs do not fully explain patterns of homelessness, but they are clearly a factor. And given that we have underbuilt housing in the past decade, the lack of supply is one of the factors as well.
As Portland State's Northwest Economic Research Center details' for Washington County here in Oregon, providing emergency support is important, but unlikely to address the root causes of homelessness. This emergency support is costly with about 70% of these service costs spent on medical, 16% spent on shelter, 12% on mental health, and 2% on law enforcement. In fact, half of homeless individuals accessed at least one hospital service during their period of homelessness with many of these visits being to the emergency room.
Overall, while the long-term trends in homelessness are largely encouraging — the numbers have fallen in the past decade — these changes are uneven across geographies. For example, in both the Portland and Seattle metro regions the largest county, Multnomah and King respectively, have seen increases, while the suburban counties have seen declines. Some of these changes likely reflect homeless individuals and families locating to be closer to resources like shelters, addiction clinics, and counseling services. Given the ability of the homeless to move around, funding for programs and services is likely best addressed at the federal and not the local level. Allowing for local governments to draw upon sufficient federal resources would better allow for local services to match the local needs, which will shift over time as the trends in overall homelessness and the types of individuals and families who find themselves homeless likewise shift. To date, local governments are largely left with a patchwork system of federal programs, nonprofits, and community support to try and address homelessness in their communities.
Revenue Summary
Oregon's General Fund revenues are heavily dependent upon personal income tax collections. As such, the April peak tax filing season often makes or breaks the state budget. This year's tax collections came in at a healthy rate, somewhat faster than what was assumed in the March 2018 forecast. If not for the payment of kicker credits generated during the 2015-17 budget cycle, Oregon's revenue growth would have ranked among the top handful of states, as has been the case for much of the current economic expansion.
Tax refund payments got off to a slow start this year due to a delayed federal filing season, but quickly made up ground in early spring. Due in part to kicker credits, refund payments came in significantly higher than in recent years. Even so, refund payments will end the filing season around $150 million short of expectations. Oregon's income tax filers are now cutting it closer than they have in the past, with many getting smaller checks than they would prefer. With the option to fill out an Oregon-specific W-4 form on the way, filers will be better able to tailor their state tax refunds in future years.
On the payment side, the tax filing season closely matched expectations. Although final personal income tax payments will likely end the season smaller than they were last year, this is a reflection of
kicker credits and not weakness in the underlying economy. As always, the jury will remain out until high-income filers reconcile their accounts in the fall when extensions and amended returns come due.
Typically, year-end payments and refunds are generally the most difficult tax components to forecast. This season, however, the biggest surprises came from typically stable sources -- quarterly estimated payments and withholdings out of labor income.
Fourth-quarter estimated payments of personal income taxes for 2017 were up nearly 50% relative to last year, and continued to post strong gains in early 2018. Advanced corporate tax payments have been up sharply in recent months as well, with the first quarter of 2018 coming in 79% larger than last year. Furthermore, large year-end bonuses are driving withholdings significantly above what recent wage growth alone could explain.
This strong growth across payment types was not unique to Oregon, with many other states reporting even stronger gains. That sort of uniformity is rare, and suggests that tax planning around the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is already affecting the timing of tax collections. Taxpayers rushed to take advantage of expiring breaks, including an uncapped deduction for state and local taxes paid. Oregon does not allow the prepayment of state taxes, but with rates set to change, many businesses have faced a strong incentive to pull forward costs into 2017, and push income into future years. As a result, some of the recently strong revenue growth will no doubt evaporate going forward.
While changes in the timing of tax payments are already evident, it will take some time before it becomes clear how many taxpayers will change their filing status in light of TCIA provisions. Some workers and investors could choose to file as businesses. Also, some businesses could benefit by changing from pass-through entities into C-Corporations, or the other way around. Although the exact magnitude of tax law impacts is uncertain, it Is sure to be large. Recent tax law changes are expected to directly add hundreds of millions of revenue dollars over the next few budget cycles.As noted above, the recent passage of Senate Bill 1528 (discussed above) to disconnect from IRC Section 199A should substantially mitigate and offset a large portion of the revenue impact that would otherwise be caused by IRC Section 199A.
Together with healthy economic growth and strong tax collections, law changes have helped push both personal income taxes and corporate income taxes over their kicker thresholds. If this outlook holds true, personal income tax kicker credits will be paid out two years from now, and additional spending on K-12 education will be required next biennium.
2017-19 General Fund Revenues
General Fund revenues for the 2017-19 biennium are expected to reach $20,304 million. This represents an increase of $813.2 million from the December 2018 forecast, and an increase of $1.7 billion relative to the 2015-17 biennium. This outlook is now tracking ahead of the assumptions used when crafting the budget. General Fund revenues for the 2017-19 biennium are expected to come in $752 million ahead of the Close of Session forecast
Personal Income Tax
Personal income tax collections were $1,964 million during the third quarter of fiscal year 2018, $11 million (0.6%) above the latest forecast. Compared to the year-ago level, total personal income tax collections grew by 8.0% relative to a forecast that called for a 7.4% increase. Strong growth is expected to persist throughout the biennium due in part to tax law changes. Non-corporate General Fund revenues are now expected to end 2017-19 3.0% above the Close of Session forecast, generating a $555 million kicker payment.
Corporate Excise Tax
Corporate excise tax collections equaled $146 million for the third quarter of fiscal year 2018, $77 million (111%) above the March forecast. Compared to the year-ago level, net corporate excise tax collections rose by 80% relative to a forecast that called for an 11% decrease.
Federal Tax Law Changes have injected a good deal of uncertainty into the outlook for corporate tax payments. Some employees, investors, partnerships, S-corps and sole proprietorships face a larger tax incentive to incorporate. Conversely, some C-corporations will benefit from becoming pass-through entities. Excluding these behavioral changes, under current law, the TJCA stands to significantly reduce Oregon's corporate tax collections in the near term, while boosting them in later years. Accelerated depreciation provisions contribute to this pattern, as does the repatriation of deferred income from multinational corporations. Some repatriation revenue is already being received. Following legislative action this year, Oregon is expected to take in $245 in repatriation-related revenues, generating a large corporate kicker payment ($197 million). As required by statute, this kicker will be distributed as spending on K-12 education.
Other Sources of Revenue
While estate tax collections continue to be strong, they are no longer coming in significantly above forecast in recent quarters. In examining estate tax collections two clear trends emerge. The first is that Oregon is seeing an increase in the number of estates impacted by the tax. Compared to other states and the federal government, Oregon has a relatively low threshold at $1 million. Given home prices and asset markets, $1 million estates, while still very rare, are somewhat more commonplace today than a decade ago. The second trend, which impacts the revenues to a larger degree, is a considerable increase in the size of estates for a few taxpayers. Oregon tends to see approximately 60 estate tax payers with estate valuations greater than $5 million each year. However in the last decade, among these estates, the average size, and average tax payment has increased considerably. These trends are heavily influenced by a handful of estates. Moving forward, the outlook for estate tax collections remains strong. However not quite as strong as demographics and asset markets alone suggest due to tax planning. All told, General Fund revenues excluding personal and corporate taxes are revised lower by $2.4 million this forecast, relative to the previous forecast. Such revenues are $7.8 million above the Close of Session outlook.
Extended General Fund Outlook
Revenue growth in Oregon and other states will face considerable downward pressure over the 10-year extended forecast horizon. As the baby boom population cohort works less and spends less, traditional state tax instruments such as personal income taxes and general sales taxes will become less effective, and revenue growth will fail to match the pace seen in the past.
Tax Law Assumptions
The revenue forecast is based on existing law, including measures and actions signed into law during the 2017 Oregon Legislative Session. OEA makes routine adjustments to the forecast to account for legislative and other actions not factored into the personal and corporate income tax models. These adjustments can include expected kicker refunds, when applicable, as well as any tax law changes not yet present in the historical data.
Although based on current law, many of the tax policies that impact the revenue forecast are not set in stone. In particular, sunset dates for many large tax credits have been scheduled. As credits are allowed to disappear, considerable support is lent to the revenue outlook in the outer years of the forecast. To the
extent that tax credits are extended and not allowed to expire when their sunset dates arrive, the outlook for revenue growth will be reduced. The current forecast relies on estimates taken from the Oregon Department of Revenue's 201719 Tax Expenditure Report together with more timely updates produced by the Legislative Revenue Office.
Alternative Scenarios
The latest revenue forecast for the current biennium represents the most probable outcome given available information. OEA feels that it is important that anyone using this forecast for decision-making purposes recognize the potential for actual revenues to depart significantly from this projection.
Currently, the overwhelming downside risk facing the revenue outlook is the threat that the U.S. economic recovery will lose steam in the near term. Such a scenario, however it played out, would result in drastic revenue losses. In a severe recession, biennial revenues could come in as much as $2.4 billion lower than predicted'.
Lottery Earnings
Overall the lottery forecast is relatively unchanged this quarter. However there are two fundamental, largely offsetting forecast changes beneath the topline. On the downside, video lottery sales came in slightly below expectations in recent months, or peak lottery season. This relative weakness has been carried forward into future years to the tune of a few million dollars in transfers each year. At -0.8 percent, this does not represent a substantial change and the underlying economic drivers remain intact. On the upside, sales for traditional products, and jackpot games in particular continue to come in above expectations over the past year. An update of the jackpot models has raised the outlook to the tune of just under two million dollars in each year.
All told, available resources for the 2017-19 biennium are revised upward by $8.9 million (+0.6%), while 2019-21 resources are revised downward by $1.4 million (-0.1%). The outer biennia are each revised lower by $7-8 million (-0.5%).
Cowlitz Tribe's ilani Casino Resort Impact
Over the past year and a half DAS has incorporated a lower video lottery sales forecast due to the opening of the ilani Casino Resort in southwest Washington. The casino has now been open for one year and there has been a noticeable impact on Oregon video lottery sales. However the impact is considerably smaller than was initially expected. In the recent sales data, the impact is averaging just 15 percent the original estimate.
It is challenging to do a full and accurate postmortem on the reasons for such a large error. Many factors influenced the forecast itself and the grand opening and rollout of the casino was not without issues either. That said there was a clear forecast mistake. DAS overestimated the impact of the new casino on video lottery sales at the neighborhood level in North and Northeast Portland, and the impact on sales throughout the rest of the Portland metropolitan area. Video lottery sales in zip codes along the Oregon-Washington border in the Portland region have fallen around 15 percent, instead of the 40 percent expected. The rest of the metro area sales have increased some compared with expectations of small declines. Sales in the rest of Oregon, outside the Portland region continue to grow, which was expected.
In somewhat comforting news, DAS was not alone is overestimating the initial impact of the new casino. The Confederated Tribes of Grand Ronde, owners of the Spirit Mountain casino which was previously the closest casino to the Portland metro region, announced back in fall that sales had fallen around 17 percent relative to the previous year whereas they forecasted sales would fall by 40 percent.
Even as video lottery sales have come in considerably higher than expected prior to the casino opening, the outlook remains uncertain. In analyzing casino trends elsewhere in the country, sales increase fora year or two after a new casino opens. Furthermore expectations are that opening the gaming floor is just phase one for the ilani Resort Casino. Future expansions may include a buffet, and a hotel to attract overnight guests and make it more of a destination and not a day trip activity. In the event any of these options materialized, DAS would reassess the impact on video lottery sales. DAS will continue to work with the Oregon Lottery, particularly the research team, the Legislative Fiscal Office and Legislative Revenue Office to monitor sales and discuss the outlook.
Lottery Sates and Distributions
The robust gains seen in video lottery sales following the first wave of terminal replacements have slowed. This was expected. The second wave of replacements are nearing completion today, however their impact on sales is less, even as the upgrade in new technology and underlying infrastructure is important.
Issues to watch include broader national trends in gaming markets, demographic preferences for recreational activities, and to what extent consumers increase the share of their incomes spent on gaming. In much of the past 6 years, consumers have remained cautious with their disposable income.
Finally, Oregon voters last year approved two new amendments for where lottery resources are to be spent. The Outdoor School Education Fund is set to receive the lesser of 4 percent of net proceeds or $5.5 million per quarter ($44 million per biennium), adjusted for inflation. The Veterans' Services Fund is set to receive 1.5 percent of net proceeds.
Budgetary Reserves
The state currently administers two general reserve accounts, the Oregon Rainy Day Fund (ORDF) and the Education Stability Fund° (ESF).
As of this forecast, the two reserve funds currently total a combined $1.05 billion.
The forecast for the ORDF includes two deposits for this biennium. One relates to the General Fund ending balance from last biennium (2015-17). A deposit of $179.4 million occurred in January 2018 after the accountants closed the book on the biennium. The other one related to increased corporate taxes from Measure 67 during the 2015-17 biennium. A $16.2 million transfer occurred in September 2017. These bring the projected ORDF ending balance at the end of 2017-19 to $595.4 million.
The forecast calls for $226.2 million in deposits into the ESF in 2017-19 based on the current Lottery forecast. This would bring the ESF balance to $609.9 million at the end of the current biennium.
Together, the ORDF and ESF are projected to have a combined balance of $1.2 billion at the close of the 2017-19 biennium. Provided the General Fund ending balance remains unallocated, total effective reserves at the end of 2017-19 would total more than $2.3 billion, or more than 11 percent of current revenues. That said, the ending balance figure includes the projected $555 million personal income tax kicker to be paid out in the 2019-21 biennium. As such, the true level of effective reserves is closer to $1.8 billion, or nearly 9 percent of the current biennium's revenues.
Such levels of reserve balances are bigger than Oregon has ever been able to accumulate, at least in the state's recent history. However, such reserves would barely be sufficient to withstand a typical recession's impact on state revenue, let alone account for the increase in public services and programs during downturns. That said, reserves of approximately 7 percent are generally accepted to withstand a medium sized recession.
Recreational Marijuana Tax Collections
During the most recent legislative session, HB 3470 officially gave DAS the responsibilities for forecasting recreational marijuana taxes. Overall DAS' baseline outlook remains essentially unchanged given it has tracked well since its first such forecast back in May 2017. That said, after accounting for sales coming in slightly above expectations in recent months and updating the program's administrative costs, the net change to the forecast for 2017-19 is +$0.6 million. The outer biennia each see a net $0.2 million reduction as the sales outlook remains unchanged and administrative costs are updated to better reflect ongoing program costs.
Recreational Marijuana Forecast Process
In developing this outlook, DAS held another preliminary forecast meeting with stakeholders from state agencies, local governments and industry professionals. DAS also spoke again with our counterparts in both Colorado and Washington to better understand their experiences and to discuss marketplace trends. Moving forward, DAS will continue to work with stakeholders and those who can advise us on industry and consumer trends, regulatory impacts, issues to watch, and the like.
Currently the outlook for recreational marijuana sales and tax collections remains highly uncertain. While Oregon has now collected nearly two years' worth of taxes, there have been substantial changes during this time that complicate any analysis. Early start sales through medical dispensaries were taxed at a 25 percent of rate, while sales at OLCC licensed retailers are now taxed at a 17 percent rate, with the local option of adding up to 3 additional percent. Furthermore, regulatory changes, more stringent product testing requirements, and environmental issues all impacted and reduced available supply on the market during this time.
Combined, it is challenging to get a handle on the underlying trends in this newly legalized world. Thankfully, Oregon is not alone. Both Colorado and Washington are two years ahead of Oregon. Both states have seen tremendous growth in sales and tax collections, which serves as a guide for where Oregon is likely headed in the near-term. Over time, as the market matures, future growth will follow trends in the economy and consumer spending. However the coming few years will see strong growth as the product becomes more widely available, more socially acceptable, and more black and gray market sales are realized in the legal market.
Almost two years' worth of tax collections, and one set of quarterly tax returns filed by dispensaries is certainly more valuable than no data. DAS' forecasting responsibilities are made considerably easier than what faced those estimating the potential impact of Measure 91 (2014) which legalized recreational sales. That said, not quite two years' worth of data is not enough to build a full-fledged forecasting model, particularly when it is a brand new legal market. Over time, as DAS accumulates more data, a longer history of sales, and detailed breakdowns of consumer purchases and consumer demographics, DAS will build an econometric model. Until then, in consultation with DAS' advisory group, and using Colorado and Washington as a guide, DAS is relying on trends for the short-term outlook.
Recent Market Trends and State Comparisons
So far, Oregon's first two years of recreational sales closely tracks Colorado's first two years and outpaces Washington's after controlling for the fact both states have larger populations than Oregon. There are at least four likely reasons for this pattern.
First, Oregon's marijuana usage rates are higher than those seen in Washington. In fact, in the most recent survey data from 2015-2016, Oregon saw a large increase in reported usage. As such, Oregon is more likely to see larger sales than in Washington, when adjusting for population size. While usage rates are not the only metric that matters, it does make sense that Oregon and Colorado are seeing similar sales figures, given they have similar usage rates.
Second, prices and taxes matter. Oregon has a significantly lower tax rate than does Washington, which helps keep final consumer prices lower. Even as Colorado and Washington have two additional years to build their industry in the newly legalized world, Oregon's prices are very competitive with those seen in the other states. A lower price, everything else equal, should bring more consumers into the market and also induce more black market conversions.
Third, the cross-border effect with legal sales beginning earlier in Washington likely had an impact on Oregon's first year of sales. Counties in southwest Washington saw sales fall by nearly 40 percent once Oregon's early sales began. Clearly there was plenty of cross-border activity.
Effectively this meant Oregon had somewhat of a built-in customer base who were used to going to dispensaries and retailers and purchasing in the legal market. Thus Oregon's initial sales were larger than in Washington, but this may, at least in part, have some to do with social acceptance and being used to the new system rather than fundamentally stronger sales.
Fourth, both Colorado and Washington initially had relatively few retail outlets in major population centers. In Colorado, Denver had retailers but Boulder did not initially. In Washington, Seattle had only a few retailers at first, but have added quite a few in recent years. Some of each state's strong growth in the first two years was simply due to market access and product availability, particularly in places where lots of people live. It is unlikely this is a similar issue in Oregon, with our major population centers having dispensaries at first, and retailers now.
In fact, today each state has just over 500 licensed recreational marijuana dispensaries or retailers. However once you account for the adult population size differences, Oregon has more stores than either Colorado or Washington. This does not necessarily mean that Oregon is overstored. That may be the case, however the other states may be understored. For example, while Colorado has a bit more than 500 recreational licenses issued, the state supports 700+ marijuana businesses that sell recreational and/or medical marijuana. At the least, the vast majority of Oregon consumers do not lack for access to recreational marijuana.
Recreational Marijuana Outlook
In terms of the outlook, Oregon is poised for strong growth in the coming years. However, it remains highly uncertain with substantial upside and downside risks.
On the downside, supply constraints that keep products and inventory low will result in fewer sales, and tax collections. Such constraints could be regulatory changes that impact grower, processors or retailers, or regulatory bottlenecks where companies in the industry are unable to get their licenses, renewals or tests completed or approved in a timely manner. Another downside risk for tax collections are prices, given Oregon levies the tax based on the sales price. Recent data shows retail marijuana prices declining between 10 and 20 percent in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon. Marijuana is a commodity and eventually will be commoditized. How far and how quickly prices decline is a risk to the outlook for tax collections. Offsetting this risk somewhat is the fact that lower prices should result in larger sales. Finally, the one risk that looms large over the entire forecast is the federal government, which recently rescinded the so-called Cole memos, and the U.S. attorney for the District of Oregon announced updated guidelines on how they will enforce black market grow operations and leakages of product to other states. While there
has yet to be any real action taken, there is a non-zero chance the federal government could step in and eliminate, or severely restrict recreational marijuana sales. In this event, taxes collected would be considerably less than forecasted.
On the upside, consumers overall could get more comfortable with legalized recreational marijuana and the industry gains broader social acceptance, resulting in larger sales. Reported usage rates have doubled in the past decade. Furthermore, a faster rate of black market conversion would also result in more legal sales. Similarly, conversions from the medical marijuana market to the recreational market would result in more sales and taxes collections. The impact of the seed-to-sale tracking system may also increase activity within the legal market, resulting in fewer black or grey market sales, provided enforcement is effective.
Long-term the real economic impact from recreational marijuana will come not from the growing and retailing, which are low-wage and low value-added market segments. It will come from higher value-added products like oils, creams, and edibles, in addition to niche, specialty strains. These developments, as economist Beau Whitney points out, would be quite similar to the emergence and growth of craft beer in recent decades. Here, among the value-added manufacturing processes in addition to the building up of a broader cluster of suppliers and ancillary industries that Oregon will see the real economic impacts. Furthermore, the long-term potential of exporting Oregon products and business know-how to the rest of the country remains large, at least once marijuana is legalized nationwide.
The other market development will be mass-produced and lower priced products. This is the end result of the corn modification of marijuana. Margins will be low, but due to scale, businesses remain viable. These are more likely to be outdoor grows, due to costs. Even a world of legalized marijuana nationwide, it is plausible that Oregon, along with California, would remain a national leader in this market due to agricultural and growing conditions in the Emerald Triangle.
POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK
Population and Demographic Summary
Oregon's population count on April 1, 2010 was 3,831,074. Oregon gained 409,550 persons between the years 2000 and 2010. The population growth during the decade of 2000 to 2010 was 12.0 percent, down from 20.4 percent growth from the previous decade. Oregon's rankings in terms of decennial growth rate dropped from 11th between 1990-2000 to 18th between 2000 and 2010. Oregon's national ranking, including D.C., in population growth rate was 12th between 2010 and 2016 lagging behind all of the neighboring states, except California. Slow population growth during the decade preceding the 2010 Census characterized by double recessions probably cost Oregon one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Actually, Oregon's decennial population growth rate during the most recent decade was the second lowest since 1900. As a result of economic downturn and sluggish recovery that followed, Oregon's population increased at a slow pace in the recent past. However, Oregon's current population is showing very strong growth as a consequence of state's strong economic recovery. Population growth between 2015 and 2016 was 6th fastest in the nation. Based on the current forecast, Oregon's population of 4.14 million in 2017 will reach 4.63 million in the year 2026 with an annual rate of growth of 1.2 percent between 2017 and 2026.
Oregon's economic condition heavily influences the state's population growth. Its economy determines the ability to retain existing work force as well as attract job seekers from national and international labor market. As Oregon's total fertility rate remains below the replacement level and number of deaths continue to rise due to ageing population, long-term growth comes mainly from net in-migration. Working-age adults come to Oregon as long as we have favorable economic and employment environments. During the 1980s, which include a major recession and a net loss of population during the
early years, net migration contributed to 22 percent of the population change. On the other extreme, net migration accounted for 76 percent of the population change during the booming economy of early 1990s. This share of migration to population change declined to 32 percent in 2010, lowest since early 1980s when we actually had negative net migration for several years. As a sign of slow to modest economic gain, the ratio of net migration-to-population change has already exceeded 80 percent and remain that way throughout the forecast horizon due largely to combination of continued high net migration and rise in the number of deaths among elderly population associated with increasing number of elderly population. Although economy and employment situation in Oregon looked stagnant in the recent past, migration situation was not similar to the early 1980s pattern of negative net migration. Potential Oregon out-migrants had no better place to go since other states were also in the same boat in terms of economy and employment. California is the number one state of origin of migrants to Oregon. With improvement in California's housing market and Oregon's growing economy continues, we expect positive impact on Oregon's net migration.
Age structure and its change affect employment, state revenue, and expenditure. Demographics are the major budget drivers, which are modified by policy choices on service coverage and delivery. Growth in many age groups will show the effects of the baby-boom and their echo generations during the period of 2017-2026. It will also reflect demographics impacted by the depression era birth cohort combined with diminished migration of working age population and elderly retirees. After a period of slow growth during the 1990s and early 2000s, the elderly population (65+) has picked up a faster pace of growth and will surge to the record high levels as the baby-boom generation continue to enter this age group and attrition of small depression era cohort due to death. The average annual growth of the elderly population will be 3.4 percent during the 2017-2026 forecast period. However, the youngest elderly (aged 65-74) has been growing at an extremely fast pace in the recent past and will continue the trend in the near future exceeding 4 percent annual rate of growth due to the direct impact of the baby-boom generation entering the retirement age and smaller pre-baby boom cohort exiting the 65-74 age group. This fast paced growth rate will taper off to below one percent by the end of the forecast period as a sign of baby-boom generation's transition to elderly age group. Reversing several years of slow growth and shrinking population, the elderly aged 75-84 started to show a positive growth as the effect of depression era birth-cohort has dissipated. An unprecedented fast pace of growth of population in this age group has started as the baby-boom generation starts to mature into 75-84 age group. Annual growth rate during the forecast period is expected to be unusually high 5.7 percent. The oldest elderly (aged 85+) will continue to grow at a slow but steady rate in the near future due to the combination of cohort change, continued positive net migration, and improving longevity. The average annual rate of growth for this oldest elderly over the forecast horizon will be 2.0 percent. An unprecedented growth in oldest elderly will commence near the end of the forecast horizon.
As the baby-boom generation matures out of oldest working-age cohort combined with slowing net migration, the once fast-paced growth of population aged 45-64 has gradually tapered off to below zero percent rate of growth by 2012 and will remain at slow or below zero growth phase for several years. The size of this older working-age population will remain virtually unchanged at the beginning to the end of the forecast period. The 25-44 age group population is recovering from several years of declining and slow growing trend. The decline was mainly due to the exiting baby-boom cohort. This age group has seen positive growth starting in the year 2004 and will increase by 1.7 percent annual average rate during the forecast horizon mainly because of the exiting smaller birth (baby-bust) cohort being replaced by baby-boom echo cohort. The young adult population (aged 18-24) will remain nearly unchanged over the forecast period. Although the slow or stagnant growth of college-age population (age 18-24), in general, tend to ease the pressure on public spending on higher education, college enrollment typically goes up during the time of very competitive job market, high unemployment, and scarcity of well-paying jobs when even the older people flock back to colleges to better position themselves in a tough job market. The growth in K-12 population (aged 5-17) will remain very low which will translate into slow growth in school enrollments. This school-age population has actually declined in size in recent past years and will
grow in the future at well below the overall state average. The growth rate for children under the age of five has remained below or near zero percent in the recent past due to the sharp decline in the number of births. This cohort of children will see steady positive growth after 2016. Although the number of children under the age of five declined in the recent years, the demand for child care services and pre-Kindergarten program will be additionally determined by the labor force participation and poverty rates of the parents. Overall, elderly population over age 65 will increase rapidly whereas population groups under age 65 will experience slow growth in the coming years. Hence, based solely on demographics of Oregon, demand for public services geared towards children and young adults will likely to increase at a slower pace, whereas demand for elderly care and services will increase rapidly.
Procedure and Assumptions
Population forecasts by age and sex are developed using the cohort-component projection procedure. The population by single year of age and sex is projected based on the specific assumptions of vital events and migrations. Oregon's estimated population of July 1, 2010 based on the most recent decennial census is the base for the forecast. To explain the cohort-component projection procedure very briefly, the forecasting model "survives" the initial population distribution by age and sex to the next age-sex category in the following year, and then applies age-sex-specific birth and migration rates to the mid-period population. Further iterations subject the in-and-out migrants to the same mortality and fertility rates.
Annual numbers of births are determined from the age-specific fertility rates projected based on Oregon's past trends and past and projected national trends. Oregon's total fertility rate is assumed to remain below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman during the forecast period, tracking at slightly lower than the national rate.
Male and female life expectancies for the 2010-202 period are projected based on the past three decades of trends and national projected life expectancies. Gradual improvements in life expectancies are expected over the forecast period. At the same time, the difference between the male and female life expectancies will continue to shrink. The male life expectancy at births of 77.4 and the female life expectancy of 81.8 in 2010 are projected to improve to 79.0 years for males and 83.2 years for females by the year 2026.
Estimates and forecasts of the number of net migrations are based on the residuals from the difference between population change and natural increase (births minus deaths) in a given forecast period. The migration forecasting model uses Oregon's employment, unemployment rates, income/wage data from Oregon and neighboring states, and past trends. Distribution of migrants by age and sex is based on detailed data from the American Community Survey. The annual net migration between 2017 and 2026 is expected to remain in the range of 44,500 to 53,400, averaging 47,600 persons annually. Slowdown in Oregon's economy in the recent years resulted in smaller net migration and slow population growth. Estimated population growth and net migration rates in 2010 and 2011 were the lowest in over two decades. Oregon's population growth has already rebounded and will continue high rate of growth in the near future. Migration is intrinsically related to economy and employment situation of the state. Still, high unemployment and job loss in the recent past have impacted net migration and population growth, but not to the extent in the early 1980s. Main reason for this is the fact that other states of potential destination for Oregon out-migrants were not faring any better either. Hence the potential out-migrants had very limited destination choices. The future growth will not look like high growth period of 1990s. The role of net migration in Oregon's population growth will get more prominence as the natural increase will decline considerably due to rapid increase in the number of deaths associated with ageing population.
INITIATIVE PETITIONS, LEGISLATIVE REFERRALS AND REFERENDUM PETITIONS
Initiative Petitions
General. The State Constitution, Article IV, Section 1, reserves to the people of the State (1) the initiative power to amend the State constitution or to enact State legislation by placing measures on the statewide general election ballot for consideration by the voters and (2) the referendum power to approve or reject at an election any act passed by the Legislative Assembly that does not become effective earlier than 90 days after the end of the legislative session. The Legislative Assembly may also refer an act to the voters for approval or rejection.
State law permits any person to file a proposed initiative with the Secretary of State's office without payment of fees or other burdensome requirements. Although a large number of initiative measures are submitted to the Secretary of State's office, a much smaller number of petitions contain sufficient signatures to be placed on the ballot. Because many proposed initiative measures are submitted that do not qualify for the ballot, the State does not formally or systematically monitor the impact of those measures or estimate their financial effect prior to the time the measures qualify for the ballot. Consequently, the State does not ordinarily disclose information about proposed initiative measures that have not qualified for the ballot.
Requirements for Proposed Initiative Measures to Be Placed on the Ballot. To place a proposed initiative on a general election ballot, the proponents must submit to the Secretary of State initiative petitions signed by the number of qualified voters equal to a specified percentage of the total number of votes cast for all candidates for governor at the gubernatorial election at which a governor was elected for a term of four years next preceding the filing of the petition with the Secretary of State. Any elector may sign an initiative petition for any measure on which the elector is entitled to vote.
The initiative petition must be submitted to the Secretary of State not less than four months prior to the general election at which the proposed measure is to be voted upon. As a practical matter, proponents of an initiative have approximately two years in which to gather the necessary number of signatures. State law permits persons circulating initiative petitions to pay money to persons obtaining signatures for the petition.
Although a large number of initiative measures are submitted to the Secretary of State's office, a much smaller number of petitions contain sufficient signatures to be placed on the ballot. Once an initiative measure has gathered a sufficient number of signatures and qualified for placement on the ballot, the State is required to prepare a formal estimate of the measure's financial impact. Typically, this estimate is limited to an evaluation of the direct dollar impact. Historically, a larger number of initiative measures have qualified for the ballot than have been approved by the electors.
Legislative Referrals and Referendum Petitions
The Legislative Assembly may refer constitutional amendments or statutory changes to the Oregon voters for their approval. In addition, within 90 days after the end of a legislative session, any person may file a petition seeking to have any act passed by the Legislative Assembly that does not become effective earlier than 90 days after the end of the legislative session referred to the voters for their approval or rejection at the next general election, or at a special election provided for by the Legislative Assembly. To place a proposed referendum on the ballot, the proponents must submit to the Secretary of State within 90 days after the end of the legislative session referendum petitions signed by the number of qualified voters equal to four percent of the total number of votes cast for all candidates for governor at the gubernatorial election at which a governor was elected for a term of four years next preceding the filing of the petition with the Secretary of State. Any elector may sign a referendum petition for any measure on which the
elector is entitled to vote. An act approved by the voters through the referendum process becomes effective 30 days after the date of the election at which it was approved. A referendum on part of an act does not prevent the remainder of the act from becoming effective as provided in the act.
PENSION AND POST EMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
The State is one of many participants in the statewide Oregon Public Employees' Retirement System ("PERS" or "System"). The State participates in three retirement pension benefit programs provided through PERS and three retirement healthcare benefit programs (two provided through PERS and one provided by the State's Public Employees' Benefit Board ("PEBB")).' Most public employers in Oregon, including State government employers, participate in PERS. Benefits provided through PERS are paid from the Oregon Public Employees' Retirement Fund ("OPERF"). The Public Employees' Retirement Board (the "PERS Board") administers PERS and is responsible for setting policies and for providing administrative direction to PERS.
Funding Levels. Milliman released its valuation report for the System as of December 31, 2016 (the "2016 System Report") on December 6, 2017. Milliman released the State's individual valuation report as of December 31, 2016 (the "2016 State Report") on November 16, 2017.
According to the 2016 System Report, the unfunded actuarial liability ("UAL") of the System as of December 31, 2016 increased by approximately $3.7 billion from the System UAL as of December 31, 2015. This increase is due primarily to recent action by the PERS Board, which included the reduction of the assumed earnings rate, as well as the effects of negative amortization of the UAL in calendar year 2016 due to previously "collared" employer contribution rates. The "collared" employer contribution rate is a result of the employer contribution rate stabilization method utilized by PERS.
The funded status of the System and of the State as reported by Milliman will change over time depending on a variety of factors, including the market performance of the securities in which the Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund is invested, future changes in compensation and benefits of covered employees, demographic characteristics of members, methodologies and assumptions used by the actuary in estimating the assets and liabilities of PERS, and other actions taken by the PERS Board and the Legislative Assembly.
As reflected in its Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2017, and in accordance with applicable standards issued by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board ("GASB"), the State, excluding discretely presented component units, reported a net pension liability of $3.1 billion and recognized pension expenses of $556.5 million The net pension liability was measured as of June 30, 2016 based on an actuarial valuation as of December 31, 2014.
Employer Contribution Rates. The State's current 2017-2019 employer contribution rates are as follows: Tier 1/Tier 2 17.68%, OPSRP General Service 9.97% and OPSRP Police and Fire 14.74%. Based on the 2016 State Report, the State's advisory-only employer contribution rates for the 2019-2021 biennium are as follows: Tier 1/Tier 2 22.84%, OPSRP General Service 15.45% and OPSRP Police and Fire 20.18%. One factor contributing to the potential increase is the projected widening of the "rate collar" due to the projected funded status of the System (not including proceeds of pension bonds issued by Oregon local governments and the State deposited in "side accounts") falling below 70% for calendar year 2016. However, actual employer contribution rates for the 2019-2021 biennium will be based on the State's actuarial valuation as of December 31, 2017, which will take into consideration, among other things, investment returns for the Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund ("OPERF") for calendar year 2017.
2017 PERS Changes. At its July 28, 2017 meeting, the PERS Board made a number of changes to the actuarial assumptions and methods, including the reduction in the assumed earnings rate of the
investment fund from 7.5% to 7.2%. The impact on the System's and State's unfunded actuarial liability, funded status, and projected employer contribution rates is reflected in the 2016 System Report.
As part of its cost reduction measures, the 2017 Legislative Assembly included a statutory limit of $50 million for the PERS Contingency Reserve Fund (Senate Bill 1067 (Oregon Laws 2017, Chapter 746)). During the December 1, 2017 meeting, the Board reallocated $532.7 million to the PERS Benefits In Force Reserve leaving a $50 million balance in the PERS Contingency Reserve Fund. It is too early to estimate what impact the reallocation might have on the UAL or employer rates.
2017 Oregon Public Employees Retirement Fund Earnings. As reported by the Office of the State Treasurer, actual investment returns for the OPERF for calendar year 2017 were 15.4%, above the 7.2% assumed earnings rate.
Invalidated 2013 Changes to PERS. In 2013, the Legislative Assembly enacted the legislation (the "2013 PERS Bills") that were expected to reduce future benefit payments, resulting in a reduction of the System's unfunded actuarial liability by approximately $5 billion. Lawsuits were filed challenging provisions of the 2013 PERS Bills. In April 2015, the Oregon Supreme Court announced a decision that upheld the elimination of a benefit increase for out-of-state retirees but declared other benefit reductions unconstitutional as applied to benefits earned prior to the June 1, 2013 effective date of the 2013 PERS Bills.
In addition to the pension benefits provided through PERS, the State provides healthcare benefits (medical, vision and dental) through two PERS health insurance programs and through the Oregon Public Employees' Benefit Board ("PEBB"). At the time of retirement, State employees can choose whether to obtain post-employment benefits through PERS or through PEBB. Approximately 46,021 retirees receive healthcare benefits through PERS health insurance programs and approximately 793 retirees receive healthcare benefits through PEBB.
System Pension Programs
The three PERS pension programs are composed of two defined benefit programs and one program that has features similar to a defined contribution plan. In a defined benefit plan, the investment risk for the plan assets is borne by the employer. In a defined contribution plan, the investment risk for the plan assets is borne by the employee. A combination of participating employer contributions (determined by the PERS Board based upon the results of actuarial valuations), investment earnings and employee contributions (determined by statute, currently 6 percent of salaries and 7 percent for judges) fund these pension programs.
Employees hired before January 1, 1996 are known as "Tier 1" participants. The retirement benefits applicable to Tier 1 participants are based primarily on a defined benefit model. Employees hired on or after January 1, 1996 and before August 29, 2003 are known as "Tier 2" participants. The Tier 2 program also provides a defined benefit but with lower expected costs to employers than under the Tier 1 benefit. Employees hired on or after August 29, 2003 are participants in a successor retirement program to the Tier 1 and Tier 2 retirement programs (the "T1/T2 Pension Programs") known as the Oregon Public Service Retirement Plan ("OPSRP").
PERS also offers a program that has features similar to a defined contribution benefit known as the Individual Account Program ("IAP"). Effective January 1, 2004, active Tier 1, Tier 2 (T1/T2) and OPSRP employees became members of the IAP. Tier 1 and Tier 2 employees retain their existing T1/T2 Pension Program account, but the IAP account receives any future member contributions.
System Pension Plan Asset and Liabilities Valuations
Oregon statutes require an actuarial valuation of the System by a competent actuary at least once every two years. The current PERS actuary is Milliman, Inc. ("Milliman") Under current practice, actuarial valuations are performed annually, but only valuations as of the end of each odd-numbered year are used to determine annual required employer contribution rates. Valuations are released approximately one year after the valuation date. The most recent valuation report for the System as of December 31, 2016 (the "2016 System Valuation Report").
The System Valuations include actuarial valuations for the T 1/T2 Pension Programs and OPSRP. In connection with the T 1/T2 Pension Programs, the State is pooled with certain local governments and community college districts (the "State and Local Government Rate Pool" or "SLGRP"). Because OPSRP's assets and liabilities are pooled on a program-wide basis, the State is pooled with all Oregon local governments in connection with OPSRP.
The PERS actuary releases the State's individual valuation reports near the end of each calendar year. These annual valuation reports provide the State's portion of the unfunded actuarial liabilities of the SLGRP and OPSRP based on the State's proportionate share of SLGRP and System covered payroll, respectively, as of the valuation date. Milliman released the State's individual valuation report is as of December 31, 2016 (the "2016 State Valuation Report").
An employer's unfunded actuarial liability ("UAL") is the excess of the actuarially determined present value of the employer's benefit obligations to employees over the existing actuarially determined assets available to pay those benefits.
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The Oregon State Treasury is the investment officer for the state of Oregon. Investment standards are established in ORS 293.726 and require funds to be managed as a prudent investor would do. The Oregon Investment Council ("OIC") establishes policies for the investment and reinvestment of moneys in PERS investment funds. Policies are established based on the primary investment asset class of each investment manager. The OIC has approved the following asset classes for the OPERF: Oregon Short-Term Fund (for cash balance), Fixed Income, Real Estate, Public and Private Equities, and Alternative Investments. In addition, OPERF invests in the Opportunity Portfolio, which may be populated with investment approaches across a wide range of investment opportunities with no limitation as to asset classes or strategies. The target investment portfolio mix at fair market value was revised at the OIC meeting of June 3, 2015, to 37.5 percent public equity, 17.5 percent private equity, 20 percent debt securities, 12.5 percent real estate, and 12.5 percent alternative equity.
The funded status of the pension programs will change depending on the market performance of the securities that OPERF is invested in, future changes in compensation and benefits of covered employees, demographic characteristics of members and methodologies and assumptions used by the actuary in estimating the assets and liabilities of PERS. Additionally, the market value of the investments held in OPERF is determined using various sources.
State Employer Contribution Rates
At the end of each odd-numbered year, actuarial valuations determine the employer contribution rates that are officially set by the PERS Board. Pursuant to Oregon Revised Statutes 238.225, all employers participating in PERS are required to make their contribution to PERS based on the employer contribution rates set by the PERS Board. Due to a contribution rate stabilization method ("Rate Collar"), the PERS Board-approved employer contribution rates for some employers, including the State, are currently less
than the actuarially required contribution (ARC). The Rate Collar is an actuarially sound methodology that stabilizes contribution rates by spreading large rate increases over multiple biennia.
Other Post-Employment Benefits
In addition to pension benefits provided through PERS, the State provides healthcare benefits (medical, vision and dental) through two PERS health insurance programs and through PEBB. At the time of retirement, State employees can choose whether to obtain post-employment benefits through PERS or through PEBB. Approximately 46,021retirees receive healthcare benefits through PERS health insurance programs and approximately 793 retirees receive healthcare benefits through PEBB.
PERS-Sponsored Retirement Health Insurance Account Plan ("RHIA")
Retirees who receive pension benefits through the T1/T2 Pension Programs and are enrolled in certain PERS-administered health insurance programs may receive a subsidy towards the payment of health insurance premiums. ORS 238.420 established the Retirement Health Insurance Account program under which qualified retirees may receive a subsidy for Medicare supplemental health insurance of up to $60 per month towards the cost of their health insurance premiums. The State's employer contribution rate for the RHIA program for the 2017-19 biennium was 0.50 percent of payroll and was a component of the estimated State blended employer contribution rate of 13.81 percent for the 2017-19 biennium. As of December 31, 2015 the RHIA program has an unfunded actuarial liability of approximately $(1.3) million representing a funded ratio of approximately 100.3 percent, of which $(0.4) million is allocable to the State.
PERS-Sponsored Retiree Health Insurance Premium Account Plan ("RHIPA")
Another subsidy is av6ble to pre-Medicare-age State retirees through the Retiree Health Insurance Premium Account plan. On or before January 1 of each year, the PERS Board calculates the average difference between the health insurance premiums paid by retired State employees under contracts entered into by the PERS Board and health insurance premiums paid by State employees who are not retired. RHIPA authorizes payment of this average difference to qualified retired State employees. The State's employer contribution rate for the RHIPA program for the 2017-19 biennium was 0.49 percent of payroll and was a component of the estimated State blended employer contribution rate of 13.81 percent for the 2017-19 biennium. As of December 31, 2016, the RHIPA program had an unfunded actuarial liability of approximately $48.8 million, representing a funded ratio of approximately 28.1 percent, all of which is allocable to the State.
PEBB Retiree Health Insurance Benefit Plan
In addition to the explicit pension and healthcare benefits provided to retired State employees through PERS, the State provides an implicit rate subsidy for healthcare benefits (medical, vision and dental) through PEBB to approximately 793 retirees (as of June 30, 2016) who do not receive healthcare benefits through PERS and are not yet eligible for Medicare. This PEBB's rate subsidy is considered a State obligation for accounting purposes to comply with OPEB standards (GASB 43 and GASB 45). The PEBB OPEB obligation exists because the State is providing an implicit rate subsidy to retirees to purchase healthcare through the PEBB at the same premium amount as active employees.
The State's actuary for PEBB prepared an actuarial valuation as of July 1, 2015 (the "2015 PEBB Valuation") for purposes of complying with the OPEB standards. The valuation was prepared using the Entry Age Normal actuarial cost method. Significant assumptions used in the actuarial valuation include a 3.5 percent rate of return on the investment of assets and projected payroll growth of 3.5 percent. The plan uses a medical healthcare cost inflation adjustment of 5.1 percent in fiscal year 2016, 6.1 percent in fiscal year 2017, 5.6 percent in fiscal year 2018, 6.5 percent in 2019, an average of 5.8 percent between fiscal
years 2020 and 2044, and the rate grades down from 5.7 percent to 5 percent between fiscal years 2045 and 2065. The dental healthcare cost inflation adjustment was graded from 2.29 percent in fiscal year 2016 to 5 percent for all subsequent fiscal years. The plan's inflation assumption is 2.5 percent. The unfunded actuarial accrued liability is being amortized using the level dollar methodology over an open 1-year period. The State's unfunded actuarial accrued liability in the 2015 PEBB Valuation for post-employment benefits provided through PEBB was estimated at $73.4 million. There is no contractual obligation for this pooled healthcare program, but it is being recorded in the Valuation as a means to comply with OPEB standards.
For fiscal year 2016, the Annual Required Contribution (ARC) for post-employment benefits provided through PEBB, was $80.0 million, plus interest on the net OPEB obligation of $2.9 million, less the ARC adjustment of $86.5 million. Because the State pays the PEBB OPEB benefit on a pay-as-you-go basis, the net OPEB obligation reported at the end of fiscal year 2016 in the State's financial statements was $75.1 million. Of this amount, $55.5 million is the primary government's share and $19.6 million is the collective discretely presented component units' share.
DEBT AUTHORITY AND BOND ISSUANCE
Administration
Oregon law authorizes the State Treasurer to coordinate the issuance of all State of Oregon bonds. The Treasurer reviews and approves the terms and conditions of bond sales and issues all bonds for State agencies. By centralizing this authority, the agencies for which bonds are issued are encouraged to plan their offerings well in advance and to work together to obtain the most favorable market reception. In addition, the uniform approach permits greater control of the State's overall debt position, allowing the Treasurer to address the interests and concerns of the financial community and rating agencies as well as those of the State agencies.
The State Treasurer advises the Governor on the total biennial bonding level for State agency programs in the development of the Governor's recommended budget. The Legislative Assembly authorizes bonds to be issued for each agency's program in the "biennial bond bill". The Governor's recommended budget includes requests by agencies for bonds to fund their capital project needs, as well as agencies' grant and loan programs. The Legislative Assembly reviews each program request and approves what it determines to be an appropriate level of issuance in the biennial bond bill.
The State generally issues four types of "long-term" financing obligations: general obligation bonds, appropriation obligations, direct revenue bonds and conduit revenue bonds. The State also may issue full faith and credit short-term borrowings, known as "Tax Anticipation Notes." The Treasurer approves financing agreements, including lease purchase agreements, installment sales agreements and loan agreements to finance real or personal property and approves certificates of participation with respect to the financing agreements. The principal amount of such financing agreements is treated as bonds subject to the biennial bond bill.
Prior to the issuance of bonds, agencies typically submit reports to the State Treasurer that project future cash flows, the agency's ability to meet future debt service, and the agency's historical performance on payments and delinquencies. Agencies must also provide cash flow projections and other requested information to the State Treasurer on a periodic basis. Agency bond programs may be audited annually with the audit results published as soon after the audit as possible.
Capital Needs and Budget Process
Oregon law requires the Governor's budget to include capital construction needs for a minimum of six years. Prior to the biennial preparation of the Governor's recommended budget, agencies submit their projected capital needs for the upcoming biennium and for the two subsequent biennia. These requests are evaluated and placed in the Governor's recommended budget under one of two categories: capital improvements (less than $1,000,000) or major construction and acquisition projects ( $1,000,000 or more). The capital improvement projects are included in agency operating budget appropriation bills. The major construction and acquisition projects are approved by the Legislative Assembly in the biennial capital construction bill.
Authorization
The Oregon Constitution generally prohibits state government from incurring any indebtedness that exceeds $50,000. Consequently, all general obligation bonds are authorized by an amendment to the Oregon Constitution that has been approved by Oregon voters and that permits bonds to be issued as an exception to the constitutional debt limit.
General Obligation Bonds
The amount of general obligation bonds that may be issued is usually expressed in the Constitution as a percentage of the statewide property value. The general obligation bond programs are also subject to legislative direction. The Legislative Assembly may place limits on general obligation bond programs that are more restrictive than those approved by the voters.
The State's general obligation debt is secured by a pledge of the full faith and credit and statutory taxing power of the State of Oregon. In addition to any revenues from the program for which the bonds are issued, general obligation bonds may be paid from any undedicated and unrestricted moneys of the State. A property tax, where authorized by the Oregon Constitution, may also be levied to pay some general obligation bonds, although the State has not levied such a tax to pay any bonds in many years.
There are 17 constitutionally authorized general obligation bond programs. Although each of these programs may draw on the State's General Fund or other taxing authority, many of the programs are fully self-supporting from program or other revenue streams.
The following active general obligation bond programs are primarily supported by the State's General Fund: Higher Education Facilities and Community College Bonds, Pollution Control Bonds, Oregon Opportunity Bonds, Seismic Rehabilitation Bonds for Public Education and Emergency Services Buildings, and a portion of the Pension Obligation Bonds and State Property Bonds. Additionally, the Oregon Constitution authorizes the State to incur indebtedness to provide grants to school districts through the Department of Education to assist in financing capital costs of school districts.
The following general obligation bond programs are either partially or fully self-supporting: Veterans' Welfare Bonds, Higher Education Facilities Bonds, Pollution Control Bonds, Water Resources Bonds, Elderly and Disabled Housing Bonds, Alternate Energy Bonds and a portion of the Pension Obligation Bonds and State Property Bonds.
In addition to the general obligation bond programs described above, the Oregon Constitution authorizes the State Treasurer to pledge the full faith and credit of the State to guarantee the general obligation bonds of Oregon's common or union high school districts, education service districts or
community college districts. The State guarantees outstanding school district bonds of approximately $3.2 billion under this program and has not issued any bonds under this authorization.
Tax Anticipation Notes
ORS 286A.045 authorizes a short-term, full faith and credit, borrowing program for the State through the issuance of Tax Anticipation Notes (TANs). The State may borrow and issue notes in anticipation of the collection of State taxes and revenues to be received during a biennium. The notes typically mature within 13 months. They are not considered debt within the meaning of any Constitutional prohibition because they mature and are repaid within a biennium. If the State General Fund or other available revenues are insufficient to pay the TANs, the State Treasurer may use internal borrowing to make any required payment.
Appropriation Credits
The State also issues appropriation credits that are special limited obligations of the State payable solely from funds appropriated or otherwise made available by the Legislative Assembly. The obligation of the State to provide appropriated moneys and to pay those borrowings is subject to future appropriation by the Legislative Assembly for the fiscal period in which payments are due.
Certificates of Participation. Under Oregon law (ORS 283.085 to 283.092), the State is authorized to enter into financing agreements to finance real and personal property projects for State agencies using certificates of participation. Each certificate represents an interest in and right to receive a portion of loan payments made by the State to a trustee for the certificate holders. The State's obligation to make the loan payments is subject to appropriation by the Legislative Assembly of the payment amounts each biennium. In some cases, the State's repayment obligation is also secured by a pledge of certain projects financed by the certificates as collateral. Following voter approval of an amendment to the Oregon Constitution in 2010 that authorizes the State to issue general obligation bonds to finance real and personal property projects under Article XI-Q of the Oregon Constitution, the State expects to use Certificate of Participation authority on a more limited basis.
Direct Revenue Bonds
State revenue bond programs operate under statutory authority from the Legislative Assembly. Each program is fully self-supporting, and has no general obligation backing from the State. The Legislative Assembly, however, could provide a funding stream if program revenues were insufficient to support debt service payments. The Legislative Assembly normally limits revenue bonds to a specific dollar amount.
The following are active revenue bond programs authorized by the Legislative Assembly: State Highway User Tax Bonds, Lottery Revenue Bonds, Oregon Bond Bank Revenue Bonds, and Single-Family and Multifamily Revenue Bonds.
Conduit Revenue Bonds
The State has three authorized and active conduit or "pass-through" revenue bond programs consisting of the Oregon Facilities Authority, Industrial and Economic Development Revenue Bonds, and Housing Development Revenue Bonds. The Legislative Assembly has authorized these conduit revenue bond programs, and pursuant to that authority the State is the issuer of the bonds. The bonds are repaid only from revenues generated by the projects financed or from other sources available to a borrower. The State has no financial obligation for these bonds and bondholders have no recourse against the properties, funds or assets of the State.
LITIGATION
Members of the public and advocacy groups from time to time assert that they intend to file a legal action against the State challenging certain programs, laws or actions that the State or its officers or agencies have taken. Because the State cannot be certain as to whether such actions will actually be filed, the legal assertions that may be made in a potential action or the remedy sought in terms of the amount of damages or performance requested of the State, the State includes as threatened litigation only situations in which the State is engaged in active settlement negotiations with a person or advocacy group in order to pre-empt filing of a lawsuit. The State discloses only pending or threatened litigation which the State has determined may have a materially adverse impact on the State's financial position in relation to obligations it offers for sale; for bonds issued in 2018, the current level of materiality involves litigation where the damages or performance sought has a reasonable probability of imposing liability of $200 million or more against the State's General Fund.
PERS Benefits for Public Defenders
Two former public defender attorneys have filed a notice with the State of their intent to seek class action status to pursue claims for damages and injunctive relief on behalf of all current and former employees of nonprofit public defender organizations contracting with the State, alleging that they are entitled to benefits under PERS. The claimants seek enrollment in PERS and payment of benefits for their past years of service, as well as attorney fees and costs. It is too early for the State to know the extent of the potential class members, the amount of damages or cost to the State if a complaint is filed, the class certified and the plaintiffs prevail. A very preliminary estimate by the PERS actuaries indicates that if a class were certified and the claimants prevailed, the value of the PERS benefits claimed could amount to approximately $300 million or higher. The size of potential class, however, is expected to be larger than the original estimate so the amount of benefits claimed is likely to increase as well.
Claims Against the State of Oregon Exceeding $200 Million
Forest Management Rules Challenge
On March 10, 2016, Linn County filed a complaint for a class action lawsuit against the State regarding the rules under which timber is harvested on State forest lands. The county claims that actions taken under a 1998 rule adopted by the State's Department of Forestry breaches a statutory contract between the State and the counties under which the State received donations of forest lands from the counties. The State has managed the lands pursuant to forest management plans that the counties allege have reduced the revenues paid to counties because of conservation measures. On behalf of the class, the county seeks to recover lost revenues of approximately $528.6 million since 2001 and future damages of $881 million. The court has certified the class. The class on whose behalf the county has filed suit consists of 15 counties and approximately 130 government taxing districts that share or receive revenues for the State forest lands. The State brought summary judgment motions against the compliant, but the court denied them. The case is now proceeding either to an interlocutory appeal to the Court of Appeals or to trial. It is too early for the State to estimate the actual liability that might be imposed due to the lawsuit, but the State plans to vigorously defend against the lawsuit.
Cover Oregon
In 2011, the State hired a private contractor, Oracle America, Inc. ("Oracle"), both to modernize its social services systems and to develop a health insurance exchange website through which Oregonians would shop for and obtain the insurance coverage required in the federal Affordable Care Act. The State paid more than $240 million for Oracle products and services. The website, however, never worked and in
November 2014, the State transitioned its health insurance exchange to the federal website. The modernization project was put on hold.
As a result of the failure of the website to become fully functional and the failure of the modernization of the social services systems, the State and Oracle engaged in extensive litigation. The parties settled the litigation in 2016.
The start-up of Oregon's health insurance exchange, along with the exchanges of a number of other states, is also the subject of federal inquiries into the use of federal grant funds on the health insurance exchange project. It is possible that the federal government could determine that certain expenditures for Oregon's health insurance exchange and social services modernization project were improper or otherwise returnable. If that occurs, it is possible the federal government may seek repayment from the State for any disallowed amounts, up to the full amount the federal government paid the State, approximately $300 million.
Potential Superfund Site Liability
Two State agencies are participating in a confidential, non-judicial mediation process that will result in an allocation of costs associated with the investigation and cleanup of sediment contamination in the Portland Harbor, a 10-mile stretch of the lower Willamette River area that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (the "EPA") has listed as a Superfund site under the federal Superfund law ("CERCLA"). Over 200 parties, private companies and public entities, may eventually be found liable for a share of the costs related to investigation and clean-up of the Portland Harbor Superfund Site.
The Oregon Department of Transportation ("ODOT") and the Oregon Department of State Lands ("DSL") have received General Notice Letters from the EPA informing them that the State, by and through those agencies, is a potentially responsible party ("PRP") under CERCLA for cleanup costs at the site. The EPA's letter to ODOT asserts that ODOT may incur CERCLA liability for hazardous substances in storm water draining into the Portland Harbor from ODOT-owned highways and bridges. As to DSL, the EPA's letter charges that the State, through DSL and the State Land Board, is a PRP because of releases of hazardous substances by third-parties on submerged and submersible leased lands owned by the State and administered by DSL.
On January 6, 2017, EPA issued its final cleanup plan for the Portland Harbor Superfund site in a document called the Record of Decision ("ROD"). The ROD requires a mix of cleanup actions – dredging, capping, enhanced natural recovery and monitored natural recovery – and is estimated to cost $1.05 billion and take approximately 13 years to complete. Liable parties under CERCLA are responsible for funding the cleanup plan. The Portland Harbor Superfund mediation will allocate the ROD's cleanup costs among all liable parties. If the mediation is successful, it will culminate in a settlement proposal, which if accepted by the EPA will be memorialized in a Consent Order filed in the Oregon federal district court.
In December 2017, the EPA signed a Consent Order which obligates four PRP parties to undertake pre-remedial design sampling to investigate the current state of sediment contamination in the site. This sampling investigation will be completed in mid-2019.
It is too early to estimate the proportionate share of liability for cleanup costs, if any, that may ultimately be allocated to the State agencies in the course of the mediation process. It is not known when the mediation process will end.
The Portland Harbor Superfund will also involve a separate allocation of liability for injuries to natural resources caused by contamination at the site, which is an additional type of recovery under the Superfund law known as natural resource damages ("NRD"). This NRD claim is asserted against all PRPs,
including ODOT and DSL, by the Portland Harbor natural resource trustees, a group composed of five tribes, two federal agencies and the State, acting through its trustee, the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. The trustees have initiated a cooperative injury assessment process funded by thirty parties including the State, the goal of which is to reach settlements of the NRD claim based on readily available information. The State will seek a settlement of its NRD liabilities in 2018. It is too early to evaluate what, if any, share of liability either ODOT or DSL may ultimately bear for this NRD claim.
The State is pursuing claims for insurance coverage of its Portland Harbor defense costs and for any future liabilities for cleanup costs and NRD. These claims are based on commercial general liability insurance policies the state held from 1968 to 1972, and on insurance policies that listed DSL and ODOT as additional insureds. These insurance carriers have agreed to participate in funding the State's defense in Portland Harbor proceedings, but have reserved their rights to deny indemnity coverage. In October 2015, the State filed suit in state court against its primary insurance carrier, Pacific Indemnity Co., asserting that Pacific Indemnity is obligated to fund a greater proportion of the State's defense costs in Portland Harbor than it has so far. Other insurance carriers whose policies are in issue have joined the lawsuit, which is set for trial on October 1, 2018.
Community Care Organization
A coordinated care organization in Oregon, Family Care, Inc. ("FamilyCare") contested the 2015 and 2016 reimbursement rates from the State that funded the organization's operations. In June 2016, the Oregon Health Authority (OHA) and FamilyCare entered into a settlement agreement resolving their financial disputes for the 2015 and 2016 rate years. OHA agreed that it would not use compensation awarded under the settlement agreement as a basis for limiting the amount that could be paid to Family Care in future rate years. In December 2016, OHA and FamilyCare entered into a dispute resolution agreement setting forth a protocol for the parties to try to resolve FamilyCare's concerns that OHA had violated the settlement agreement in setting its 2017 rates.
In February 2017, FamilyCare filed a lawsuit challenging its 2017 contract rates; FamilyCare has since amended its complaint three times to add new claims. The third amended complaint includes the following claims against OHA: (a) breach of express and implied terms in the 2016 settlement agreement by using the amounts paid under the settlement agreement to limit or reduce FamilyCare's 2017 and 2018 rates; (b) breach of express and implied terms of the dispute resolution agreement (c) intentional interference with FamilyCare's business relations; (d) a claim under Oregon's Administrative Procedures Act alleging, among other things, that FamilyCare's 2017 and 2018 rates are not actuarially sound as required by federal law; (e) a federal civil rights claim alleging taking of Family Care's property rights to business goodwill and "reasonable expectation to actuarially sound rates"; and (f) breach of contract for failure to provide actuarially sound rates. FamilyCare seeks specific performance and money damages in the amount of at least $111 million plus attorney fees, and seeks a judicial declaration that would effectively prohibit OHA from paying FamilyCare at the 2017 or 2018 contract rates.
Pro Se Cases
There are also several pro se cases pending against the State in which plaintiffs representing themselves are suing the State for many millions of dollars. The possibility of the State having to pay anything in any of these cases is negligible.