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Allowance for Credit Losses and Credit Quality of Loans (Policies)
9 Months Ended
Sep. 30, 2024
Allowance for Credit Losses and Credit Quality of Loans [Abstract]  
Allowance for Credit Losses
The allowance for credit losses calculation incorporated a 6-quarter forecast period to account for forecast economic conditions under each scenario utilized in the measurement. For periods beyond the 6-quarter forecast, the model reverts to long-term economic conditions over a 4-quarter reversion period on a straight-line basis. The Company considers a baseline, upside and downside economic forecast in measuring the allowance.

The quantitative model as of September 30, 2024 incorporated a baseline economic outlook along with an alternative downside scenario sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model. At September 30, 2024, the weightings were 80% and 20% for the baseline and downside economic forecasts, respectively. The baseline outlook reflects an economic environment where the Northeast unemployment rate increases slightly but remains around 4.1% during the forecast period. Northeast GDP’s annualized growth (on a quarterly basis) is expected to start the fourth quarter of 2024 at approximately 3.9% and remains relatively stable during the forecast period. Key assumptions in the baseline economic outlook included the Federal Reserve cutting rates at the September and December meetings, the economy remaining at full employment, and continued tapering of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic conditions from the baseline outlook. Under this scenario, Northeast unemployment rises from 4.0% in the third quarter of 2024 to a peak of 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of September 30, 2024. Additional adjustments were made for factors not incorporated in the forecasts or the model, such as loss rate expectations for certain loan pools, considerations for inflation, and recent trends in asset value indices. Additional monitoring for industry concentrations, loan growth, and policy exceptions was also conducted.

The quantitative model as of June 30, 2024 incorporated a baseline economic outlook along with an alternative downside scenario sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model. At June 30, 2024, the weightings were 80% and 20% for the baseline and downside economic forecasts, respectively. The baseline outlook reflected an economic environment where the Northeast unemployment rate increases slightly from 4.0% to 4.1% during the forecast period. Northeast GDP’s annualized growth (on a quarterly basis) was expected to start the third quarter of 2024 at approximately 3.7% and increase slightly to 3.8% before the end of the forecast period. Key assumptions in the baseline economic outlook included the Federal Reserve cutting rates with two 25 basis point cuts at the September and December meetings, the economy remaining at full employment, and continued tapering of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic conditions from the baseline outlook. Under this scenario, Northeast unemployment rises from 4.0% in the second quarter of 2024 to a peak of 7.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of June 30, 2024. Additional adjustments were made for factors not incorporated in the forecasts or the model, such as loss rate expectations for certain loan pools, considerations for inflation, and recent trends in asset value indices. Additional monitoring for industry concentrations, loan growth, and policy exceptions was also conducted.

The methodology for prepayment assumptions was revised during the second quarter of 2024 from a static, current rate experience approach to one that includes both current experience and long-term average behavior. The change to the methodology increased the allowance for loan losses by approximately 3% as of June 30, 2024. The longer-average effective life portfolios such as the residential mortgage and residential solar segments experienced a greater impact resulting from the change in methodology. The change in prepayment methodology provided an improved estimate of expected prepayments, particularly for the longer-lived portfolios.

The quantitative model as of December 31, 2023 incorporated a baseline economic outlook along with an alternative downside scenario sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model. At December 31, 2023, the weightings were 70% and 30% for the baseline and downside economic forecasts, respectively. The baseline outlook reflected an unemployment rate environment starting at 3.8% and increasing slightly during the forecast period to 4.1%. Northeast GDP’s annualized growth (on a quarterly basis) was expected to start the first quarter of 2024 at approximately 3.7% before decreasing to a low of 2.9% in the third quarter of 2024 and then increasing to 3.8% by the end of the forecast period. Other utilized economic variable forecasts are mixed compared to the prior year, with retail sales improving, business output mixed and housing starts down. Key assumptions in the baseline economic outlook included currently being in a full employment economy, continued tapering of the Federal Reserve balance sheet and the FOMC beginning to cut rates in the second quarter of 2024. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic conditions from the baseline outlook. Under this scenario, Northeast unemployment increases to a peak of 7.0% in the first quarter of 2025. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of December 31, 2023. Additional qualitative adjustments were made for factors not incorporated in the forecasts or the model, such as loss rate expectations for certain loan pools, considerations for inflation and recent trends in asset value indices. Additional monitoring for industry concentrations, loan growth and policy exceptions was also conducted.

The Company made a policy election to report AIR in the other assets line item on the consolidated balance sheets. AIR on loans totaled $34.2 million at September 30, 2024 and $34.1 million at December 31, 2023 with no estimated allowance for credit losses related to AIR as of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023 as it is excluded from amortized cost.

The Company’s January 1, 2023 adoption of ASU 2022-02, Financial Instruments - CECL Losses (Topic 326): Troubled Debt Restructurings and Vintage Disclosures resulted in an insignificant change to its methodology for estimating the allowance for credit losses on TDRs. The ASU eliminated the guidance on TDRs and requires an evaluation on all loan modifications to determine if they result in a new loan or a continuation of the existing loan. The decrease in allowance for credit loss on TDR loans relating to adoption of ASU 2022-02 was $0.6 million.

Credit Quality Indicators

The Company has developed an internal loan grading system to evaluate and quantify the Company’s loan portfolio with respect to quality and risk, focusing on, among other things, borrowers financial strength, experience and depth of borrower’s management, primary and secondary sources of repayment, payment history, nature of the business and industry outlook. The internal grading system enables the Company to monitor the quality of the entire loan portfolio on a consistent basis and provide management with an early warning system, which facilitates recognition and response to problem loans and potential problem loans.

Commercial Grading System

For C&I and CRE loans, the Company uses a grading system that relies on quantifiable and measurable characteristics when available. This includes comparison of financial strength to available industry averages, comparison of transaction factors (loan terms and conditions) to loan policy and comparison of credit history to stated repayment terms and industry averages. Some grading factors are necessarily more subjective such as economic and industry factors, regulatory environment and management. C&I and CRE loans are graded Doubtful, Substandard, Special Mention and Pass.

Doubtful

A Doubtful loan has a high probability of total or substantial loss, but because of specific pending events that may strengthen the asset, its classification as a loss is deferred. Doubtful borrowers are usually in default, lack adequate liquidity or capital and lack the resources necessary to remain an operating entity. Pending events can include mergers, acquisitions, liquidations, capital injections, the perfection of liens on additional collateral, the valuation of collateral and refinancing. Generally, pending events should be resolved within a relatively short period and the ratings will be adjusted based on the new information. Nonaccrual treatment is required for Doubtful assets because of the high probability of loss.

Substandard

Substandard loans have a high probability of payment default or they have other well-defined weaknesses. They require more intensive supervision by bank management. Substandard loans are generally characterized by current or expected unprofitable operations, inadequate debt service coverage, inadequate liquidity or marginal capitalization. Repayment may depend on collateral or other credit risk mitigants. For some Substandard loans, the likelihood of full collection of interest and principal may be in doubt and those loans should be placed on nonaccrual. Although Substandard assets in the aggregate will have a distinct potential for loss, an individual asset’s loss potential does not have to be distinct for the asset to be rated Substandard.

Special Mention

Special Mention loans have potential weaknesses that may, if not checked or corrected, weaken the asset or inadequately protect the Company’s position at some future date. These loans pose elevated risk, but their weakness does not yet justify a Substandard classification. Borrowers may be experiencing adverse operating trends (i.e., declining revenues or margins) or may be struggling with an ill-proportioned balance sheet (i.e., increasing inventory without an increase in sales, high leverage and/or tight liquidity). Adverse economic or market conditions, such as interest rate increases or the entry of a new competitor, may also support a Special Mention rating. Although a Special Mention loan has a higher probability of default than a Pass asset, its default is not imminent.

Pass

Loans graded as Pass encompass all loans not graded as Doubtful, Substandard or Special Mention. Pass loans are in compliance with loan covenants and payments are generally made as agreed. Pass loans range from superior quality to fair quality. Pass loans also include any portion of a government guaranteed loan, including Paycheck Protection Program loans.

Consumer and Residential Grading System

Consumer and Residential loans are graded as either Nonperforming or Performing.

Nonperforming

Nonperforming loans are loans that are (1) over 90 days past due and interest is still accruing or (2) on nonaccrual status.

Performing


All loans not meeting any of the above criteria are considered Performing.
Loan Modifications to Borrowers Experiencing Financial Difficulties
Loan Modifications to Borrowers Experiencing Financial Difficulties



When the Company modifies a loan with financial difficulty, such modifications generally include one or a combination of the following: an extension of the maturity date at a stated rate of interest lower than the current market rate for new debt with similar risk; a change in scheduled payment amount; or principal forgiveness.