Allowance for Credit Losses and Credit Quality of Loans

12 Months Ended

Dec. 31, 2022

Allowance for Credit Losses and Credit Quality of Loans [Abstract]

Allowance for Credit Losses and Credit Quality of Loans

6.          Allowance for Credit Losses and Credit Quality of Loans

The allowance for credit losses totaled $100.8 million at December 31, 2022, compared to $92.0 million at December 31, 2021. The allowance for credit losses as a percentage of loans was 1.24% at December 31, 2022, compared to 1.23% at December 31, 2021.

The January 1, 2020 (“Day 1”) increase in the allowance for credit loss on loans relating to the adoption of ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments was $3.0 million, which decreased retained earnings by $2.3 million and increased the deferred tax asset by $0.7 million.

The allowance for credit losses calculation incorporated a 6-quarter forecast period to account for forecast economic conditions under each scenario utilized in the measurement. For periods beyond the 6-quarter forecast, the model reverts to long-term economic conditions over a 4-quarter reversion period on a straight-line basis. The Company considers a baseline, upside and downside economic forecast in measuring the allowance.

The quantitative model as of December 31, 2022 incorporates a baseline economic outlook along with an alternative downside scenario sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model. The baseline outlook reflected an unemployment rate environment initially around pre-COVID-19 levels at 3.9% that increases slightly during the forecast period to 4.0%. Northeast GDP’s annualized growth (on a quarterly basis) is expected to start the first quarter of 2023 at approximately 3.9% and hovering around 4.6% by the end of the forecast period. Other utilized economic variables have generally deteriorated in their respective forecasts, with retail sales and housing starts forecasts declining from the prior year. Key assumptions in the baseline economic outlook included a full employment economy being realized in the near future, continued tapering of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, an increasing yield on ten-year treasury securities, and a gradual decline in global oil prices. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic and pandemic related conditions from the baseline outlook. Under this scenario, northeast unemployment rises from 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to a peak of 6.9% in the first quarter of 2024. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of December 31, 2022. Additional adjustments were made for factors not incorporated in the forecasts or the model, such as loss rate expectations for certain loan pools, considerations for inflation, and recent trends in asset value indices. Additional monitoring for industry concentrations, loan growth, and policy exceptions was also conducted. All these factors were considered through separate quantitative processes and incorporated when applicable into the estimate of current expected credit losses at December 31, 2022.

The quantitative model as of December 31, 2021 incorporates a baseline economic outlook along with alternative upside and downside scenarios sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model. The baseline outlook reflected an unemployment rate environment initially above pre-COVID-19 levels at 4.8% but falling below pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of the forecast period to 3.5%. Northeast GDP’s annualized growth (on a quarterly basis) was expected to start the first quarter of 2022 at approximately 9% and hover around 5% by the middle and end of the forecast period. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic and pandemic related conditions from the baseline outlook. Under this scenario, northeast unemployment rose from 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a peak of 8% in the first quarter of 2023, remaining around or above 7% for the entire forecast period. The alternative upside scenario incorporated a more optimistic outlook than the baseline scenario, with a swift return to full employment by the second quarter of 2022 and with northeast unemployment moving down to 3.1% by the end of the forecast period. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of December 31, 2021. At December 31, 2021, the weightings were 60%, 10% and 30% for the baseline, upside and downside economic forecasts, respectively. Additional adjustments were made for COVID-19 related factors not incorporated in the forecasts, such as the mitigating impact of unprecedented stimulus in the second and third quarters of 2020, including direct payments to individuals, increased unemployment benefits, the Company’s loan deferral and modification initiatives and various government sponsored loan programs. The Company also continued to monitor the level of criticized and classified loans in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the level contemplated by the model during similar, historical economic conditions, and an adjustment was made to estimate potential additional losses above modeled losses. Additionally, qualitative adjustments were made for Moody’s baseline economic forecast to include impacts of the Build Back Better Act not passing by December 31, 2021 and to address potential economic deterioration due to Omicron, as well as isolated model limitations related to modeled outputs given abnormally high retail sales and business output growth rates in historical periods. These factors were considered through separate quantitative processes and incorporated into the estimate of current expected credit losses at December 31, 2021.

The quantitative model as of December 31, 2020 incorporated a baseline economic outlook, along with alternative upside and downside scenarios sourced from a reputable third-party to accommodate other potential economic conditions in the model. The baseline outlook reflected an unemployment rate environment above pre-COVID-19 levels for the entire forecast period, though steadily improving, before returning to low single digits by the end of 2023. Northeast GDP’s annual growth (on a quarterly basis) was expected to start 2021 in the low to mid-single digits, with a peak growth rate of 8% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and steadily falling back down to normalized levels through 2023 and 2024. Other utilized economic variables show improvement in their respective forecasts, namely business output. Key assumptions in the baseline economic outlook included an additional stimulus package passed at the same timing and a comparable level to that of the actual $900 billion COVID-19 relief package passed in December 2020 along with no significant secondary surge in COVID-19 cases or pandemic-related business closures. The alternative downside scenario assumed deteriorated economic and pandemic related conditions from the baseline outlook. In the same way, the alternative upside scenario assumed a faster economic recovery and more effective management of the COVID-19 virus from the baseline outlook. These scenarios and their respective weightings are evaluated at each measurement date and reflect management’s expectations as of December 31, 2020. Additional adjustments were made for COVID-19 related factors not incorporated in the forecasts, such as the mitigating impact of unprecedented stimulus in 2020, including direct payments to individuals, increased unemployment benefits, the Company’s loan deferral and modification initiatives and various government-sponsored loan programs. The commercial & industrial and consumer segment models were based upon percent change in unemployment with modeled values as of December 31, 2020 well outside the observed historical experience. Therefore, adjustments were required to produce outputs more aligned with default expectations given the forecast economic environment. Additionally, the Company identified a slightly higher level of criticized and classified loans during 2020 than those contemplated by the model during similar economic conditions in the past for which an adjustment was made for estimated expected additional losses above modeled output. These factors were considered through a separate quantitative process and incorporated into the estimate for allowance for credit losses at December 31, 2020.

There were no loans purchased with credit deterioration during the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021. During 2022, the Company purchased $11.5 million of residential loans at a 1.53% premium and $50.1 million in consumer loans at par. The allowance for credit losses recorded for these loans on the purchase date was $3.2 million. During 2021, the Company purchased $58.9 million of residential loans at premiums ranging from 2% to 5% and $92.5 million of consumer loans at a par. The allowance for credit losses recorded for these loans on the purchase date was $6.8 million. The Company made a policy election to report AIR in the other assets line item on the balance sheet. AIR on loans totaled $25.0 million at December 31, 2022 and $19.5 million at December 31, 2021 and there was no estimated allowance for credit losses related to AIR at December 31, 2022 and 2021.

The following tables present the activity in the allowance for credit losses by our portfolio segment:

(In thousands)	Commercial Loans			Consumer Loans			Residential			Total
Balance as of December 31, 2021	$	28,941		$	44,253		$	18,806		$	92,000
Charge-offs		(1,870	)		(16,140	)		(633	)		(18,643	)
Recoveries		2,430			7,014			852			10,296
Provision		5,221			15,824			(3,898	)		17,147
Ending Balance as of December 31, 2022	$	34,722		$	50,951		$	15,127		$	100,800
Balance as of December 31, 2020	$	50,942		$	37,803		$	21,255		$	110,000
Charge-offs		(4,638	)		(14,489	)		(979	)		(20,106	)
Recoveries		723			8,571			1,069			10,363
Provision		(18,086	)		12,368			(2,539	)		(8,257	)
Ending Balance as of December 31, 2021	$	28,941		$	44,253		$	18,806		$	92,000
Balance as of January 1, 2020 (after adoption of ASC 326)	$	27,156		$	32,122		$	16,721		$	75,999
Charge-offs		(4,005	)		(21,938	)		(1,135	)		(27,078	)
Recoveries		786			8,541			618			9,945
Provision		27,005			19,078			5,051			51,134
Ending Balance as of December 31, 2020	$	50,942		$	37,803		$	21,255		$	110,000

The increase in the allowance for credit losses from December 31, 2021 to December 31, 2022 was primarily due to an increase in loan balances and a modest deterioration in the economic forecast. The decrease in the allowance for credit losses from December 31, 2020 to December 31, 2021 was primarily due to the improvement in the economic forecast, partly offset by providing for the increase in loan balances. The increase in the allowance for credit losses from Day 1 to December 31, 2020 was primarily due to the deterioration of macroeconomic factors surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic.

Individually Evaluated Loans

As of December 31, 2022, there were two relationships identified to be evaluated for loss on an individual basis which, in aggregate, had an amortized cost basis of $2.4 million, with no allowance for credit loss. As of December 31, 2021, there were five relationships identified to be evaluated for loss on an individual basis with an aggregate amortized cost basis of $10.2 million and no allowance for credit loss. The decrease in the amortized cost basis on an individual basis from December 31, 2021 to December 31, 2022 was primarily due to principal payments and resolution of one relationship in which the cost basis was substantially collected and the related $0.8 million allowance for credit losses was reversed.

The following table sets forth information with regard to past due and nonperforming loans by loan segment:

(In thousands)	31-60 Days Past Due Accruing		61-90 Days Past Due Accruing		Greater Than 90 Days Past Due Accruing		Total Past Due Accruing		Nonaccrual		Current		Recorded Total Loans
As of December 31, 2022
Commercial loans:
C&I	$	342	$	88	$	4	$	434	$	2,244	$	1,237,530	$	1,240,208
CRE		336		96		-		432		5,780		2,689,196		2,695,408
PPP		-		11		-		11		-		938		949
Total commercial loans	$	678	$	195	$	4	$	877	$	8,024	$	3,927,664	$	3,936,565
Consumer loans:
Auto	$	8,640	$	1,393	$	785	$	10,818	$	1,494	$	950,389	$	962,701
Other consumer		6,341		2,569		2,263		11,173		173		1,125,040		1,136,386
Total consumer loans	$	14,981	$	3,962	$	3,048	$	21,991	$	1,667	$	2,075,429	$	2,099,087
Residential	$	2,496	$	555	$	771	$	3,822	$	7,542	$	2,103,131	$	2,114,495
Total loans	$	18,155	$	4,712	$	3,823	$	26,690	$	17,233	$	8,106,224	$	8,150,147

(In thousands)	31-60 Days Past Due Accruing		61-90 Days Past Due Accruing		Greater Than 90 Days Past Due Accruing		Total Past Due Accruing		Nonaccrual		Current		Recorded Total Loans
As of December 31, 2021
Commercial loans:
C&I	$	622	$	-	$	-	$	622	$	3,618	$	1,126,430	$	1,130,670
CRE		1,219		132		-		1,351		12,726		2,550,910		2,564,987
PPP		-		-		-		-		-		101,222		101,222
Total commercial loans	$	1,841	$	132	$	-	$	1,973	$	16,344	$	3,778,562	$	3,796,879
Consumer loans:
Auto	$	6,911	$	1,547	$	545	$	9,003	$	1,295	$	816,210	$	826,508
Other consumer		3,789		1,816		1,105		6,710		233		832,447		839,390
Total consumer loans	$	10,700	$	3,363	$	1,650	$	15,713	$	1,528	$	1,648,657	$	1,665,898
Residential	$	2,481	$	420	$	808	$	3,709	$	12,413	$	2,019,560	$	2,035,682
Total loans	$	15,022	$	3,915	$	2,458	$	21,395	$	30,285	$	7,446,779	$	7,498,459

As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, there were $1.1 million and $8.8 million, respectively, of loans in nonaccrual that were specifically evaluated for individual expected credit loss without an allowance for credit losses.

Credit Quality Indicators

The Company has developed an internal loan grading system to evaluate and quantify the Company’s loan portfolio with respect to quality and risk. The system focuses on, among other things, financial strength of borrowers, experience and depth of borrower’s management, primary and secondary sources of repayment, payment history, nature of the business and outlook on particular industries. The internal grading system enables the Company to monitor the quality of the entire loan portfolio on a consistent basis and provide management with an early warning system, which facilitates recognition and response to problem loans and potential problem loans.

Commercial Grading System

For Commercial and Industrial (“C&I”), Paycheck Protection Program (“PPP”) and Commercial Real Estate (“CRE”) loans, the Company uses a grading system that relies on quantifiable and measurable characteristics when available. This includes comparison of financial strength to available industry averages, comparison of transaction factors (loan terms and conditions) to loan policy and comparison of credit history to stated repayment terms and industry averages. Some grading factors are necessarily more subjective such as economic and industry factors, regulatory environment and management. C&I and CRE loans are graded Doubtful, Substandard, Special Mention and Pass.

Doubtful

A Doubtful loan has a high probability of total or substantial loss, but because of specific pending events that may strengthen the asset, its classification as a loss is deferred. Doubtful borrowers are usually in default, lack adequate liquidity or capital and lack the resources necessary to remain an operating entity. Pending events can include mergers, acquisitions, liquidations, capital injections, the perfection of liens on additional collateral, the valuation of collateral and refinancing. Generally, pending events should be resolved within a relatively short period and the ratings will be adjusted based on the new information. Nonaccrual treatment is required for Doubtful assets because of the high probability of loss.

Substandard

Substandard loans have a high probability of payment default or they have other well-defined weaknesses. They require more intensive supervision by bank management. Substandard loans are generally characterized by current or expected unprofitable operations, inadequate debt service coverage, inadequate liquidity or marginal capitalization. Repayment may depend on collateral or other credit risk mitigants. For some Substandard loans, the likelihood of full collection of interest and principal may be in doubt and those loans should be placed on nonaccrual. Although Substandard assets, in the aggregate, will have a distinct potential for loss, an individual asset’s loss potential does not have to be distinct for the asset to be rated Substandard.

Special Mention

Special Mention loans have potential weaknesses that may, if not checked or corrected, weaken the asset or inadequately protect the Company’s position at some future date. These loans pose elevated risk, but their weakness does not yet justify a Substandard classification. Borrowers may be experiencing adverse operating trends (i.e., declining revenues or margins) or may be struggling with an ill-proportioned balance sheet (i.e., increasing inventory without an increase in sales, high leverage and/or tight liquidity). Adverse economic or market conditions, such as interest rate increases or the entry of a new competitor, may also support a Special Mention rating. Although a Special Mention loan has a higher probability of default than a Pass asset, its default is not imminent.

Pass

Loans graded as Pass encompass all loans not graded as Doubtful, Substandard or Special Mention. Pass loans are in compliance with loan covenants and payments are generally made as agreed. Pass loans range from superior quality to fair quality. Pass loans also include any portion of a government guaranteed loan, including PPP loans.

Consumer and Residential Grading System

Consumer and Residential loans are graded as either Nonperforming or Performing.

Nonperforming

Nonperforming loans are loans that are (1) over 90 days past due and interest is still accruing or (2) on nonaccrual status.

Performing

All loans not meeting any of the above criteria are considered Performing.

The following tables illustrate the Company’s credit quality by loan class by year of origination (vintage):

(In thousands)	2022		2021		2020		2019		2018		Prior		Revolving Loans Amortized Cost Basis		Revolving Loans Converted to Term		Total
As of December 31, 2022
C&I
By internally assigned grade:
Pass	$	296,562	$	251,531	$	164,976	$	91,497	$	39,394	$	32,413	$	327,166	$	3,133	$	1,206,672
Special mention		1,044		524		4,531		194		1,108		417		5,234		-		13,052
Substandard		76		459		231		3,098		91		3,969		12,348		163		20,435
Doubtful		-		20		-		28		-		1		-		-		49
Total C&I	$	297,682	$	252,534	$	169,738	$	94,817	$	40,593	$	36,800	$	344,748	$	3,296	$	1,240,208
CRE
By internally assigned grade:
Pass	$	374,313	$	465,990	$	439,012	$	333,568	$	217,141	$	566,783	$	201,563	$	24,735	$	2,623,105
Special mention		605		764		868		2,641		4,649		24,023		850		-		34,400
Substandard		309		-		2,316		3,937		1,822		23,819		713		4,987		37,903
Total CRE	$	375,227	$	466,754	$	442,196	$	340,146	$	223,612	$	614,625	$	203,126	$	29,722	$	2,695,408
PPP
By internally assigned grade:
Pass	$	-	$	949	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	949
Total PPP	$	-	$	949	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	949
Auto
By payment activity:
Performing	$	488,776	$	239,090	$	75,853	$	99,615	$	44,061	$	13,027	$	-	$	-	$	960,422
Nonperforming		590		655		404		385		216		29		-		-		2,279
Total auto	$	489,366	$	239,745	$	76,257	$	100,000	$	44,277	$	13,056	$	-	$	-	$	962,701
Other consumer
By payment activity:
Performing	$	538,488	$	304,595	$	110,944	$	82,045	$	51,655	$	26,755	$	19,218	$	250	$	1,133,950
Nonperforming		557		936		445		272		73		130		8		15		2,436
Total other consumer	$	539,045	$	305,531	$	111,389	$	82,317	$	51,728	$	26,885	$	19,226	$	265	$	1,136,386
Residential
By payment activity:
Performing	$	251,012	$	349,498	$	212,161	$	156,957	$	157,755	$	717,621	$	233,056	$	28,122	$	2,106,182
Nonperforming		267		384		408		555		1,028		5,651		-		20		8,313
Total residential	$	251,279	$	349,882	$	212,569	$	157,512	$	158,783	$	723,272	$	233,056	$	28,142	$	2,114,495
Total loans	$	1,952,599	$	1,615,395	$	1,012,149	$	774,792	$	518,993	$	1,414,638	$	800,156	$	61,425	$	8,150,147

(In thousands)	2021		2020		2019		2018		2017		Prior		Revolving Loans Amortized Cost Basis		Revolving Loans Converted to Term		Total
As of December 31, 2021
C&I
By internally assigned grade:
Pass	$	335,685	$	219,931	$	114,617	$	64,310	$	20,137	$	32,146	$	280,476	$	15,731	$	1,083,033
Special mention		148		5,255		4,641		2,430		2,699		1,111		11,835		522		28,641
Substandard		1,482		874		7,010		187		2,582		3,272		3,512		34		18,953
Doubtful		-		-		-		1		42		-		-		-		43
Total C&I	$	337,315	$	226,060	$	126,268	$	66,928	$	25,460	$	36,529	$	295,823	$	16,287	$	1,130,670
CRE
By internally assigned grade:
Pass	$	489,300	$	434,866	$	370,377	$	236,274	$	251,082	$	441,310	$	141,367	$	43,942	$	2,408,518
Special mention		789		826		11,235		3,544		15,379		53,372		780		420		86,345
Substandard		-		77		4,539		12,934		12,424		34,563		744		-		65,281
Doubtful		-		-		-		-		-		4,843		-		-		4,843
Total CRE	$	490,089	$	435,769	$	386,151	$	252,752	$	278,885	$	534,088	$	142,891	$	44,362	$	2,564,987
PPP
By internally assigned grade:
Pass	$	92,884	$	8,338	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	101,222
Total PPP	$	92,884	$	8,338	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	-	$	101,222
Auto
By payment activity:
Performing	$	351,778	$	129,419	$	183,959	$	101,441	$	46,007	$	12,064	$	-	$	-	$	824,668
Nonperforming		305		319		457		411		266		82		-		-		1,840
Total auto	$	352,083	$	129,738	$	184,416	$	101,852	$	46,273	$	12,146	$	-	$	-	$	826,508
Other consumer
By payment activity:
Performing	$	427,401	$	151,300	$	116,451	$	78,523	$	29,705	$	15,660	$	19,011	$	1	$	838,052
Nonperforming		216		429		249		134		238		33		18		21		1,338
Total other consumer	$	427,617	$	151,729	$	116,700	$	78,657	$	29,943	$	15,693	$	19,029	$	22	$	839,390
Residential
By payment activity:
Performing	$	345,338	$	226,723	$	179,087	$	179,575	$	146,611	$	687,863	$	246,103	$	11,161	$	2,022,461
Nonperforming		-		1,411		643		1,072		1,534		8,522		-		39		13,221
Total residential	$	345,338	$	228,134	$	179,730	$	180,647	$	148,145	$	696,385	$	246,103	$	11,200	$	2,035,682
Total loans	$	2,045,326	$	1,179,768	$	993,265	$	680,836	$	528,706	$	1,294,841	$	703,846	$	71,871	$	7,498,459

Allowance for Credit Losses on Off-Balance Sheet Credit Exposures

The allowance for losses on unfunded commitments totaled $5.1 million as of December 31, 2022 and 2021.

Troubled Debt Restructuring

When the Company modifies a loan in a troubled debt restructuring (“TDR”), such modifications generally include one or a combination of the following: an extension of the maturity date at a stated rate of interest lower than the current market rate for new debt with similar risk; temporary reduction in the interest rate; or change in scheduled payment amount. Residential and Consumer TDRs occurring during 2022 and 2021 were due to reductions in the interest rate and/or extension of the term.

On August 3, 2020, the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council issued a joint statement on additional loan accommodations related to COVID-19. The joint statement clarifies that for loan modifications in which Section 4013 of the CARES Act (“Section 4013”) is being applied, subsequent modifications could also be eligible under Section 4013. Accordingly, the Company offered modifications made in response to COVID-19 to borrowers who were current and otherwise not past due in accordance with the criteria stated in Section 4013. These include short-term, 180 days or less, modifications in the form of payment deferrals, fee waivers, extensions of repayment terms, or other delays in payment. The Company evaluated the modification programs provided to its borrowers and has concluded the modifications were generally made in accordance with the CARES Act guidance to borrowers who were in good standing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and are not required to be designated as TDRs.

The following tables illustrate the recorded investment and number of modifications designated as TDRs, including the recorded investment in the loans prior to a modification and the recorded investment in the loans after restructuring:

	Year Ended December 31, 2022						Year Ended December 31, 2021
(Dollars in thousands)	Number of Contracts		Pre-Modification Outstanding Recorded Investment		Post-Modification Outstanding Recorded Investment			Number of Contracts		Pre-Modification Outstanding Recorded Investment		Post-Modification Outstanding Recorded Investment
Consumer loans:
Auto		-	$	-	$	-			2	$	38	$	38
Total consumer loans		-	$	-	$	-			2	$	38	$	38
Residential		10	$	829	$	928			10	$	1,121	$	1,236
Total TDRs		10	$	829	$	928			12	$	1,159	$	1,274

The following table illustrates the recorded investment and number of modifications for TDRs where a concession has been made and subsequently defaulted during the year:

	Year Ended December 31, 2022				Year Ended December 31, 2021				Year Ended December 31, 2020
(Dollars in thousands)	Number of Contracts		Recorded Investment		Number of Contracts		Recorded Investment		Number of Contracts		Recorded Investment
Commercial loans:
C&I		1	$	320		-	$	-		1	$	387
CRE		-		-		-		-		1		168
Total commercial loans		1	$	320		-	$	-		2	$	555
Consumer loans:
Auto		2	$	20		3	$	36		1	$	6
Total consumer loans		2	$	20		3	$	36		1	$	6
Residential		50	$	3,387		49	$	2,830		61	$	3,213
Total TDRs		53	$	3,727		52	$	2,866		64	$	3,774