EX-99.3 4 a05-4015_1ex99d3.htm EX-99.3

Exhibit 99.3

 

 

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Notice Regarding Forward Looking Statements

 

Certain statements contained in this discussion are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Matters discussed in this report which relate to events or developments that are expected to occur in the future, including management’s expectations, strategic objectives, business prospects, anticipated economic performance and financial condition and other similar matters constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s beliefs, assumptions and expectation of the Company’s future economic performance, taking into account the information currently available to management. These statements are not statements of historical fact. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and investors are cautioned that outcomes and results may vary materially from those projected due to various factors beyond the control of DPL Inc. or The Dayton Power and Light Company (“DPL”, “DP&L” or the “Company”), including but not limited to: abnormal or severe weather; unusual maintenance or repair requirements; changes in fuel costs, changes in electricity, coal, environmental emissions, gas and other commodity prices; increased competition; regulatory changes and decisions; changes in accounting rules; financial market condition; and general economic conditions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of the document in which they are made. We disclaim any obligation or undertaking to provide any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement to reflect any change in our expectations or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which the forward-looking statement is based.

 

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2004 Significant Events and Accomplishments

 

                  New management team

 

                  Reconstituted Board of Directors

 

                  Filed long awaited SEC filings and resumed dividend payments

 

                  Hired a new CFO

 

                  Recorded expected utility results in 2004 notwithstanding increased cost pressures

 

                  Completed a comprehensive review of the financial asset portfolio

 



 

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Solid Sales with a Good Customer Base

 

                  Low cost power, low number of outages and rapid restoration times  insignificant customer attrition

 

                  700 MW of large “target” customers are under contract

 

                  Electric Revenue

 

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                  87% of revenue from regulated customer base

                  13% of revenue from “market” transactions”

 

                  Sales Growth: 1.3% per year 2002-2004 (weather normalized)

 

•     Residential is the driver

 

                  For 2004: 1.4% organic growth; despite:

 

•     Despite cooling degree days being 16% below normal

 

                  94% of total retail load is served from DP&L’s low cost coal units

 



 

Clarifications About

 

“Wholesale Sales” and “Purchased Power”

 

                  “Wholesale Sales Revenue” down by 13% in ‘04 vs. ‘03

 

                  Revenue from selling our “Excess” and “Purchase Power” for resale

 

                  ‘04 scheduled maintenance periods were longer than past periods

 

                  NOX allowance costs raised “Clearing Price” for mid-merit unit (Hutchings)

 

                  “Purchased Power Costs” increased by $25 MIL in ‘04 vs. ‘03

 

                  Primarily: PJM charges for ancillary services

 

                  65% of all purchased power was transacted for resale → margin motivated

 

                  PJM settlement process blurs the distinction between retail and wholesale “contract” paths

 

                  In future earnings releases, we will report “electric revenue” as a composite

 



 

Power Production

 

Maintaining a Sharp Focus

 

                  Coal units performed at high availability

 

                  For 2003: DPL units were 1.6% above industry average

 

                  For 2004: Base load coal units increase another 1%

 

                  Valuable resources for the larger PJM region

 



 

Coal: Managing an Economic Advantage

 

                  Total coal expenses increased by 12% in ‘04 vs. ‘03

 

                  Annual hedged amounts:

 

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* DPL-managed generation only.

 

                  Average inventory is at 23 days of projected burn

 

                  New coal contracts:

 

  Diversity:

 

12 Total Contracts

  Term Length:

 

2-3 Years

  Pricing Mechanism:

 

Fixed

 



 

T&D – O&M Cost/Customer

 

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Ohio IOU Reliability Performance

 

2003 Ohio Utility Outage Frequency Index

 

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Public Utilities Commission of Ohio

 

                  Financial Protection Plan

 

                  Filed February 2005

 

                  Anticipated Completion 2Q 2005

 

                  Billing System Investment Recovery

 

                  Full Recovery $18 Million and Carrying Charges for Investment in Billing System

 

                  Begins January 2006

 

                  Rate Stabilization Surcharge

 

                  File April 2005 for Recovery of $76 Million of Fuel, Taxes, Environmental and Security Costs

 

                  Begins January 2006

 



 

Comparison of 2004 vs. 2003

 

($ million, except per share amounts)

 

Y/E 2004

 

Y/E 2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

$

1,200.0

 

$

1,191.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Electric Margins

 

823.7

 

868.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating & Maintenance

 

237.1

 

199.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Income

 

336.5

 

371.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment Income

 

184.9

 

75.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Income (expense)

 

(18.3

)

(51.0

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest Expense

 

160.2

 

181.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income(1)

 

217.3

 

148.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earnings Per Share(1)

 

$

1.81

 

$

1.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Utility Only Earnings Per Share(2)

 

$

0.99

 

$

0.95

 

 


(1)                                  Excluding cumulative effect of accounting change in 2003.

(2)                                  Reflects net income, less after tax financial asset portfolio income net of fees.

 



 

Liquidity

 

($ million)

 

2003

 

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash on Hand

 

$

337.6

 

$

202.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public Securities

 

140.3

 

86.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Liquid Assets

 

$

477.9

 

$

289.0

 

 



 

Utility Earnings Guidance/Assumptions

 

 

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

Utility Earnings Guidance

 

$0.95 to $1.05

 

 

 

 

 

Assumptions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues (weather normalized)

 

Up Approx. 3%

 

 

 

 

 

Fuel Costs

 

Up 7% to 10%

 

 

 

 

 

O&M

 

Flat

 

 

 

 

 

Interest Expense

 

Down Approx. 7%

 

 

 

 

 

Capital

 

$175 M

 

 

Notes

Utility earnings represent total earnings less investment income net of related fees

Change compared to 2004 results

Does not include changes associated with possible redemption of outstanding debt

 



 

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Sale of Private Equity Investments

 

                  Current market conditions favorable for sale

 

                  Positive financial impacts

 

                  Reduces DPL’s risk profile

 

                  Positive impact on credit ratings

 

                  Supports core business strategies

 



 

Transaction Execution Overview

 

                  Transfer and sale of each fund occurs upon GP approval – Rolling Closings

 

                  Sales price has been allocated to individual funds as negotiated upon signing

 

                  Sales price is adjusted for Capital Calls and Distributions

 

                  Buyer pays adjusted price at each “closing”

 

                  Possibility that not all of the funds may transfer

 



 

Sale of Private Equity Portfolio

 

$ in millions

 

Income

 

Cash Flow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sales Price at June 30, 2004

 

$

1,011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less: Net Cash Distributions and Expenses

 

$

(161

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Est. Net Proceeds at December 31, 2004

 

$

850

 

$

850

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Private Investments (Less: OCI and Other)

 

$

754

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Est. Gain on Sale of Financial Assets

 

$

96

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Taxes

 

$

38

 

$

25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Est. Income from Sale of Financial Assets

 

$

57

 

$

825

 

 



 

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