EX-99 2 bmocapitalmarkets.htm POWERPOINT TEXT: BMO CAPITAL MARKETS bmocapitalmarkets.htm
 

 
Petroleum Development Corporation
BMO Capital Markets
2008 Appalachian Conference
January 10, 2008
Steven R. Williams, Chairman & CEO

Forward Looking Statements
This information contains predictions, estimates and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Although the Company believes that its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that its goals will be achieved.  Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements include the timing and extent of changes in commodity prices for oil and gas, the need to develop and replace reserves, environmental risks, drilling and operating risks, risks related to exploration and development, uncertainties about the estimates of reserves, competition, government regulation and the ability of the Company to meet its stated business goals.

The SEC permits oil and gas companies to disclose in their filings with the SEC only proved reserves, which are reserve estimates that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. The Company uses in this presentation the terms “probable” and “possible” reserves, which SEC guidelines prohibit in filings of U.S. registrants. Probable reserves are unproved reserves that are more likely than not to be recoverable. Possible reserves are unproved reserves that are less likely to be recoverable than probable reserves. Estimates of probable and possible reserves which may potentially be recoverable through additional drilling or recovery techniques are by nature more uncertain than estimates of proved reserves and accordingly are subject to substantially greater risk of not actually being realized by the Company. In addition, the Company’s production forecasts and expectations for future periods are dependent upon many assumptions, including estimates of production decline rates from existing wells and the undertaking and outcome of future drilling activity, which may be affected by significant commodity price declines or drilling cost increases.

Contact Information
Investor Relations: Petroleum Development Corporation
120 Genesis Boulevard, PO Box 26, Bridgeport, West Virginia 26330
Phone: 304.842.3597, Fax: 304.842.0913, www.petd.com

Recent Developments
·  
Richard McCullough named to succeed Steve Williams as CEO
o  
Currently serves as CFO
o  
Extensive financial and energy experience
o  
Approximately 8 month transition period
·  
North Dakota Bakken Shale properties sold for $34.7 million
o  
Estimated $3-5 million after-tax gain in fourth quarter 2007
o  
Company retained Nesson formation projects including 58,000 leasehold acres in Burke County

Company Snapshot
·  
Market Cap (12/31/07)
o  
$ 881 million
·  
Estimated 2007 Year-end Proved Reserves
o  
650+ Bcfe*
·  
3-P Reserves @YE2007
o  
1+ TCFE**
·  
Annual Production
o  
28 Bcfe (2007E)
·  
Diluted Average Shares Outstanding (2007)
o  
Down 7.5% from 2006

 
*
Reserves are based on internal Company estimates.
        **
Reserves included in probable and possible categories do not meet the SEC definitions of proved reserves and may be subject to greater risk of recovery than reserves meeting SEC requirements.

Rocky Mountains
·  
2006 Proved Reserves: 265.5 Bcfe
·  
2006 Production: 14.1 Bcfe
·  
2007E Production: 24 Bcfe
Michigan Basin
·  
2006 Proved Reserves: 21.2 Bcfe
·  
Production: 1.4 Bcfe
·  
2007E Production: 1.8 Bcfe
Barnett Shale
·  
Exploratory project
·  
December 2007 drilling
Appalachian Basin
·  
2006 Proved Reserves: 36.0 Bcfe
·  
2006 Production:  1.5 Bcfe
·  
2007E Production: 2.6 Bcfe

Key Value Drivers
·  
Proven Track Record
o  
5-year 850% return to shareholders
o  
66% year-over-year production growth
o  
55% year-over-year reserve growth
·  
Visible Built-in-Growth
o  
More than 1 Tcfe of 3P reserves provides significant near-term growth potential
o  
Large multi-year, low risk drilling inventory
o  
Recently added 47 Bcfe of proved reserves in Southwestern Pennsylvania (15.8 Bcfe producing)
·  
Strong Financial Position
o  
Strong balance sheet
o  
Debt-to-cap 26% (end of 3rd Qtr)

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Third Quarter Highlights
·  
Record three month production of 7.72 Bcfe
o  
Record nine month production of 19.5 Bcfe
o  
On track with 28 Bcfe guidance for 2007
·  
Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations* = $31.6 million; up substantially despite impact of lower realized prices in Rockies
·  
Drilled 95 gross new wells including 4 in the Appalachian Basin
o  
80.8 net wells
o  
264 gross (220.4 net) wells for 9 months

 
* Adjusted cash flow from operations is defined as cash flow from operations before changes in assets and liabilities.  EBITDA is defined as Net Income + Interest, net + Income Taxes + Depreciation, depletion, amortization. These are non-GAAP measures.  See slide 27 for further information.

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Investments Adding Value ($ in million, except for Mcfe Data)
·  
Results of investments in people & production

 
Third
Quarter
Nine Months
Ended Sep 30
Expense Category
2006
2007
2006
2007
Oil & gas production & well ops.
$8.6
$12.6
$22.4
$33.3
Per Mcfe
$1.99
$1.64
$1.84
$1.71
General & administrative expense
$5.3
$7.5
$14.2
$21.8
Per Mcfe
$1.24
$0.97
$1.17
$1.12
DD&A
$8.3
$20.4
$22.5
$50.9
Per Mcfe
$1.92
$2.64
$1.85
$2.61

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Diverse Energy Market Exposure
Percentage of Production by Market (Based on Mcfe)
·  
Oil:                                21.6%
·  
Northern Border:        0.5%
·  
Mid-continent:           14.3%
·  
Colorado Liquids:      3.0%
·  
Nymex:                         12.4%
·  
Michigan:                    5.9%
·  
Colorado:                    42.3%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Continuing Our Success
·  
Colorado Acquisitions - production and development opportunities
·  
Active development program
o  
On existing and acquired properties
o  
Approximately 355 wells drilled in 2007
·  
Operations enhancements
o  
Piceance Basin Compression
o  
Garden Gulch road completed
o  
Codell recompletions and Niobrara refracs
·  
Acquired acreage and began drilling in Barnett shale in December 2007
·  
Pennsylvania acquisition - production and development opportunities

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Increasing Production
·  
Record 7.7 Bcfe 3Q07
·  
On track to meet 28 Bcfe annual guidance
·  
YTD Production by area
o  
Rocky Mountains = 83.6%
§  
75.7% Natural Gas
§  
24.3% Oil
o  
Appalachian Basin = 9.8%
o  
Michigan = 6.6%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Increasing Estimated Proved Reserves
·  
Anticipate greater than 650+ Bcfe proved reserves for YE 2007
o  
Additions through both the drill bit and acquisitions
·  
Active areas primarily in Colorado - Piceance, Wattenberg and NECO
·  
Southwestern Pennsylvania acquisition

* Reserves are based on internal Company estimates
 
See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Drilling Activity
{Graphic}

2007 Actual vs. Production Forecast
·  
Estimated 2007 Production of 28 Bcfe
o  
Nine month production of 19.5 Bcfe
·  
Estimated 2007 Exit Rate approximately 100 MMcfd
·  
Challenges to meeting production goal
o  
Back-log of wells awaiting turn-in in Grand Valley, Wattenberg and NECO areas
o  
Fourth quarter curtailment

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Enhancements to 2007 Operational Plan
·  
Acquired 47 Bcfe of proved reserves in Southwestern Pennsylvania
·  
Increased net Grand Valley wells
·  
Increased CAPEX in Codell refracs and Niobrara recompletions
o  
Originally modeled Codell only completions; actual wells are multi-zone completions (J-sand, Codell and Niobrara, as appropriate)
o  
Drilling fewer net Wattenberg wells
·  
Reduced activity level in ND and reallocated capital

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Development Plans
·  
Over 400 Bcfe of Probable and Possible Reserves for Future Development
o  
Grand Valley offset locations
o  
Wattenberg field locations (5th spot, rule 318A and 40 acre locations)
o  
Locations identified by seismic and offsets to producing wells in NE Colorado
o  
31.2 Bcfe in Southwestern Pennsylvania

·  
Distribution of 2P and 3P Reserves
o  
Piceance Basin:              57%
o  
NE Colorado:                  19%
o  
North Dakota:                 5%
o  
Wattenberg Field:         19%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Grand Valley Field, Piceance Basin, Colorado

2007 Plan
·  
September 2007 net daily production 31 Mmcfe/d (2006 exit rate was 15.4 Mmcfe/d)
·  
Approximately 355 net locations on 10-acre spacing
o  
148 net PUD locations
o  
207 remaining unproved locations
·  
Drill 41 net wells
o  
50 Bcfe added by drilling
o  
$93 Million D&C cost

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Grand Valley Achievements
·  
Reduced drilling time
o  
Valley wells drilled in 11 days (2007) vs 18 days (2005)
o  
Mesa top directional wells drilled in 15 days (2007)
·  
Improved Completion Design
o  
Slick Water Fracs– cleaner, non-gelled fluid results in improved EURS
o  
20% increase of per-well EURs from 1.25 to 1.5 Bcfe
o  
Increase IP rate from 820 to 1,100 Mcfd

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Wattenberg Field, DJ Basin, Colorado
·  
September 2007 net daily production 36 Mmcfe/d (2006 net exit rate 18.6 Mmcfe/d)
·  
3P reserves include over 900 net undeveloped locations (primarily downspace locations)
·  
Future opportunity of 800 Codell and/or Niobrara refracs
·  
2007
o  
Drill 108 net wells
o  
Add estimated 34 Bcfe drilling reserves
o  
164 re-completions and re-fracs
o  
$86 Million D&C cost

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

NECO Field Area, Eastern DJ Basin, Colorado
·  
29,160 acres available for drilling
·  
8 defined structures (3D and 2D seismic)
·  
100 PUD locations
·  
200 potential locations
·  
2007 Plan
o  
Drill 141 wells, PDC 100%WI
o  
31 Bcfe added by drilling
o  
$33 Million D&C cost
o  
Acquiring 50 square miles of additional 3D seismic
§  
Potential addition of 100-200 locations

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Appalachian and Michigan Operation Areas

 
Appalachian
Michigan
Operated Wells
2116
206
2006  YE Proved Reserves
36.0 Bcfe
21.2 Bcfe
2007 Acquisition Proved Reserves *
30.1 Bcfe
4.6 Bcfe
% of 2006 YE Proved
84%
22%
2007E Production*
2.6 Bcfe
1.8 Bcfe
Increase from 2006*
86%
20%
July 2007 Net Daily Production
6.2 Mmcfe/d
4.5 Mmcfe/d
Reserves are based on internal Company estimates

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Southwestern Pennsylvania, Castle Acquisition
·  
PETD closed the acquisition of Castle Gas Company assets in October 2007
o  
$53 million purchase price
§  
$1.12 per Mcfe
o  
Acquired majority interest in 760 natural gas wells located in southwestern Pennsylvania
o  
 Current daily production of 3,000 Mcfe/d
·  
Highly predictable, low risk drilling
o  
47 Bcfe of proved reserves

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – Appalachian Projects (Excludes Castle Acquisition Projects)
Appalachian Basin
 
2007
2008
% Change
Total Net Production (BCFE)
2.6
3.1
17%
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
8.2
9.1
11%
Gross Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
12.6
13.6
7%
Total Net Capital (MM$)
$4.35
$8.9*
105%
Number of Drilling Projects
8
23
187%
Number of Reworks/Refracs
31
30
0%

* Preliminary pending final determination of 2008 Capital Budget

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – Appalachian Projects (Excludes Castle Acquisition Projects)
{Graphic}

2007-2008 Appalachian Production History & Forecast (Excludes Castle Acquisition Production)
{Graphic}

2008 Proposed Development – Appalachian Basin (Excludes Castle Acquisition Projects)

ASSUMPTIONS – APPALACHIAN
·  
3% base PDP curtailment, increased to 10% in summer months
·  
2008 plan dependent upon 2007 pilot down-spacing program
·  
Average D&C cost on new wells of $330,000
·  
Average recompletion cost of $51,500
·  
Average gross reserves per new drill of 0.18 BCFE

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – Castle Acquisition (Excludes Castle Acquisition Projects)

                                                                 2008
·  
Total Net Production (BCFE):              1.3
·  
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D):                   4.4
·  
Gross Exit Rate (MMCFE/D):               7.0
·  
Preliminary Net Capital (MM$):           $12.7
·  
Number of Drilling Projects:                 50

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – Castle Projects (Excludes Castle Acquisition Projects)
{Graphic}

2008 Castle Production Forecast
{Graphic}

Marcellus Shale “Fairway” PDC Areas of Operation
·  
PDC operates over 2100 wells within the Marcellus “Fairway” area
·  
Leasehold combination of lease, farmout and wellbore ownership
·  
Potential of up to 50,000 or more development acres within “Fairway”, pending full determination of leasehold rights

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Track Record of Consistent Growth
{Graphic}

Supplemental Data
 
2007 Production Forecast

2007 Forecast by Area (MMcfe)
   
Forecast
Area
1Q
Actual
2Q
Actual
3Q
Actual
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2007
Rocky Mountain
4,290
5,322
6,683
4,435
5,041
6,794
7,405
23,675
Appalachian
617
687
610
625
640
680
689
2,634
Michigan
426
427
428
415
424
456
459
1,754
Company Total
5,333
6,436
7,721
5,475
6,104
7,931
8,553
28,063


Rocky Mountain Forecast by Area (MMcfe)
 
Forecast
Area
1Q
Actual
2Q
Actual
3Q
Actual
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2007
Wattenberg
2,209
2,623
2,963
2,314
2,586
3,149
3,361
11,410
Grand Valley
1,246
1,590
2,622
1,064
1,245
2,086
2,094
6,490
NECO
677
942
960
834
954
1,203
1,492
4,483
North Dakota
158
165
138
224
256
355
458
1,293
Rocky
Mountain Total
4,290
5,321
6,683
4,435
5,041
6,794
7,405
23,675

Forecasted numbers are from presentation to Analysts on January 22, 2007

Major Operating Area Highlights
·  
Wattenberg Area production shortfall due to weather related issues, production not “lost” but delayed
·  
Grand Valley production positively impacted by facility improvements and greater # of wells inline
·  
NECO Area production difference due to fewer wells inline than anticipated

EBITDA  & Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations Reconciliation ($ in thousands)
EBITDA
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
09/30/07
3Q06
3Q07
Net Income
$8,881
$20,413
$33,228
$41,452
$237,772
$25,011
$210,884
$4,459
Interest
1,257
626
53
(681)
(5,607)
2,766
(3,109)
2,082
Income Taxes
3,186
11,934
20,250
24,676
149,637
15,511
132,795
3,326
Depreciation
12,602
15,313
18,156
21,116
33,735
50,857
8,300
20,354
EBITDA
$25,926
$48,286
$71,687
$86,563
$415,537
$94,145
$348,870
$30,221

Management believes EBITDA is relevant because it is a measure of cash available to fund the Company’s capital expenditures and service its debt and is a widely used industry metric which allows comparability of our results with our peers.

Adjusted Cash Flow Operations
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
9/30/2007
3Q06
3Q07
Net Cash Used in Operating Activities
$28,173
$73,608
$73,301
$112,372
$67,390
($32,800)
$2,632
$43,585
Changes in Assets & Liabilities to Operations
(2,875)
(26,691)
(10,786)
(38,815)
(37,554)
101,003
(2,497)
(11,947 )
Adjusted Cash Flow  from Operations
$25,298
$46,917
$62,515
$73,557
$29,836
$68,203
$135
$31,638

Management believes Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations is relevant because it is a measure of cash available to fund the Company’s capital expenditures and service its debt.  Management also believes Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations is a useful measure for estimating the value of the Company’s operations.

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statement

Petroleum Development Corporation
BMO Capital Markets
2008 Appalachian Conference
January 10, 2008
Steven R. Williams, Chairman & CEO