EX-99.6 7 d51493dex996.htm EX-6 EX-6

Exhibit 6

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

This section provides information that supplements the information about Peru contained in Peru’s Annual Report on Form 18-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 15, 2015, as such Annual Report may be further amended from time to time. To the extent the information in this section is inconsistent with the information contained in the Annual Report, as amended to date, the information in this section replaces such information. Capitalized terms not defined in this section have the meanings ascribed to them in the Annual Report.

Recent Political Developments

On April 2, 2015, the President of the Republic of Peru, Ollanta Humala, appointed Pedro Cateriano as the new cabinet’s chief, and ratified all ministers in office, except for the ministers of Justice and Human Rights, Foreign Affairs and Defense.

The new ministers are Gustavo Adrianzén in the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights, replacing Fredy Otárola; Ana María Sánchez in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, replacing Gonzalo Gutiérrez; and Jakke Valakivi in the Ministry of Defense, replacing Pedro Cateriano. These changes in ministers have not resulted in significant modifications to President Humala’s key agenda items, including expanding social inclusion.

The Economy

Gross Domestic Product and the Structure of the Economy

During the three months ended March 31, 2015, Peru’s economy increased 1.7% in real terms as a result of lower domestic demand which increased 2.8% compared to the three months ended March 31, 2014, due to a reduction of 26.5% in public sector investment and a decrease in public and private consumption and private investment in the three months ended March 31, 2015 compared to the same period of 2014, primarily as a result of a continuing decrease in the exchange terms of exports relative to imports and the worsening of the expectations of economic agents, as well as a decrease in public expenditure principally due to difficulties in investment execution by regional and municipal governments.

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, private consumption experienced an annualized growth of 3.6% in real terms and gross private investment decreased by 3.9%, as compared to the same period in 2014. Public sector investment decreased 26.5% in the three months ended March 31, 2015 due mainly to the decrease of 49.5% and 49.1% in investments by regional governments and municipal governments, respectively, in the three months ended March 31, 2015 compared to the same period in 2014. Such decrease was partially offset by the investments of the national government in the three months ended March 31, 2015, which grew 17.7% compared to the same period in 2014, primarily due to an increase in expenditures in construction, recovery and improvement of roads in connection with projects of the Ministry of Transport and Communications. Private investment decreased 3.9% in the three months ended March 31, 2015 as compared to the same period in 2014, primarily due to a decrease in the exchange terms of exports relative to imports and the worsening of economic expectations, as well as a slower than expected progress in investment projects particularly in the mining sector. Total gross investment increased 0.1% during the three months ended March 31, 2015 compared to the same period in 2014.

The following tables set forth GDP by expenditure for the periods presented.

 

1


Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014(1)      2015(1)  

Government consumption

     5,585         5,544   

Private consumption

     30,967         30,333   

Gross investment:

     

Public sector

     1,771         1,251   

Private sector

     10,096         9,433   

Change in inventories

     99         921   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total gross investment

     11,966         11,606   

Exports of goods and services

     11,174         9,539   

Imports of goods and services

     11,834         11,143   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Net (exports)

     (660      (1,604

GDP

     47,858         45,879   

 

(1)  Preliminary data.

Source: Central Bank.

In the three months ended March 31, 2015 and compared to the three months ended March 31, 2014, public savings reached 8.2% and 9.9% of GDP, respectively, due to an increase in current revenues, while private savings was 11.3% of GDP for the three months ended March 31, 2015 compared to 10.5% for the comparable period of 2014.

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, domestic savings decreased to 19.6% of GDP from 20.4% of GDP in the three months ended March 31, 2014, due to an increase in public and private consumption.

External savings, as a percentage of GDP, increased to 5.7% of GDP in the three months ended March 31, 2015 from 4.6% of GDP in the three months ended March 31, 2014.

Domestic investment as a percentage of GDP increased to 25.3% in the three months ended March 31, 2015 from 25.0% in the three months ended March 31, 2014, primarily due to an increase in change in inventories.

 

2


Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure

(as a percentage of total GDP, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014(1)      2015(1)  

Government consumption

     11.7         12.1   

Private consumption

     64.7         68.1   

Gross investment:

     

Public sector

     3.7         2.7   

Private sector

     21.1         20.6   

Change in inventories

     0.2         2.0   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total gross investment

     25.0         25.3   

Exports of goods and services

     23.3         20.8   

Imports of goods and services

     24.7         24.3   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Net (exports)

     (1.4      (35

GDP

     100.0         100.0   

 

(1)  Weekly Note (Nota Semanal) No. 19-2015.

Source: Central Bank.

Investment and Savings

(as a percentage of current GDP)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014(1)      2015(1)  

Domestic savings:

     

Public savings

     9.9         8.2   

Private savings

     10.5         11.3   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total domestic savings

     20.4         19.6   

External savings

     4.6         5.7   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total savings

     25.0         25.3   

Domestic investment

     25.0         25.3   

 

(1)  Weekly Note (Nota Semanal) No. 19-2015.

Source: Central Bank.

For the three months ended March 31, 2015, per capita GDP decreased 5.2%, compared to same period in 2014 to U.S.$5,888.8 from U.S.$6,211.6.

Principal Sectors of the Economy

The principal economic activities in Peru are services (including wholesale and retail trade, transportation and tourism), manufacturing, agriculture and livestock, and mining and hydrocarbons.

 

3


Gross Domestic Product by Sector

(in millions of nuevos soles, at constant 2007 prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014(1)      2015(1)  

Primary production:

     

Agriculture and livestock(2)

     5,560         5,585   

Fishing

     404         366   

Mining and hydrocarbons(3)

     13,183         13,717   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total primary production

     19,146         19,669   

Secondary production:

     

Manufacturing

     16,707         15,837   

Construction

     6,841         6,376   

Electricity and water

     2,026         2,120   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total secondary production

     25,574         24,333   

Services:

     

Wholesale and retail trade

     12,134         12,573   

Other services(4)

     53,530         55,721   

Total services

     65,664         68,294   

Total GDP

     110,384         112,295   

 

(1)  Preliminary data.
(2)  Includes forestry.
(3)  Includes non-metallic mining.
(4)  Includes taxes on products and import duties.

Source: Central Bank.

The following tables set forth the distribution of GDP in the Peruvian economy, indicating the percentage contribution to GDP and the growth rate for the periods shown for each sector, in each case compared to the previous corresponding period.

 

4


Gross Domestic Product by Sector

(as a percentage of GDP, at constant 2007 prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014(1)      2015(1)  

Primary production:

     

Agriculture and livestock(2)

     5.0         5.0   

Fishing

     0.4         0.3   

Mining and hydrocarbons(3)

     11.9         12.2   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total primary production

     17.3         17.5   

Secondary production:

     

Manufacturing

     15.1         14.1   

Construction

     6.2         5.7   

Electricity and water

     1.8         1.9   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total secondary production

     23.2         21.7   

Services:

     

Wholesale and retail trade

     11.0         11.2   

Other services(4)

     48.5         49.6   

Total services

     59.5         60.8   

Total GDP

     100.0         100.0   

 

(1)  Preliminary data.
(2)  Includes forestry.
(3)  Includes non-metallic mining.
(4)  Includes taxes on products and import duties.

Source: Central Bank.

During the three months ended March 31, 2015, GDP grew 1.7% compared to the same period in 2014. This increase was primarily driven by growth in the commerce, mining and fuel, financial services, business services, communications, and utility services (including electricity, water and gas).

Primary Production

During the three months ended March 31, 2015, primary production increased by 2.7%, due to increased production in agriculture and livestock. In terms of contribution to GDP, agriculture and livestock accounted for 5.0% in the three months ended March 31, 2015. In total, the primary sector contributed 17.5% to GDP in the three months ended March 31, 2015.

Agriculture and Livestock

The Peruvian agriculture and livestock sector is dominated by small-scale producers. The sector contributed 5.0% and 5.0% to GDP in the three months ended March 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively.

Peru’s main agricultural products are potatoes, corn, rice, coffee, fruits and vegetables, which together accounted for approximately 60.1% and 60.7% of agricultural production in the three months ended March 31, 2015 and 2014.

Peru’s main agricultural export products are coffee, cotton and sugar, which together accounted for approximately 6.8% and 7.3% of agricultural production in the three months ended March 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively.

 

5


During the three months ended March 31, 2015, the agriculture and livestock sector has changed very little compared to the first three months ended March 31, 2014, contributing 5.0% to GDP, due primarily to unfavorable climatic conditions, scarcity of hydrological resources, and the presence of yellow rust, which has attenuated the production of mangoes, coffee, paddy rice, alfalfa, cotton, avocados, grapes, cocoa, potatoes, poultry and eggs.

Fishing

Fishing is a small part of the Peruvian economy, contributing 0.3% and 0.4% to GDP in the three months ended March 31, 2015 and 2014. Traditional fish products, however, are Peru’s fourth largest single export after mining and petroleum and natural gas, accounting for 6.0% and 10.4% of exports in the three months ended March 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively, considering both traditional (fish meal and fish oil) and non-traditional exports (frozen crustaceans and mollusks, frozen fish, and prepared and canned food).

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, the fishing sector decreased by 9.2% compared to the same period in 2014, mainly due to a decrease in the production of seafood products.

Mining and Hydrocarbons

The mining and hydrocarbons sector grew in the three months ended March 31, 2015 by 4.1% compared to the same period in 2014 due to increased hydrocarbons extraction offset by a decrease in mining production.

Mining. Peru is a leading producer of gold, silver, tin, copper, lead and zinc in Latin America. Although mining constitutes a small part of the country’s GDP, contributing on average 10.0% to GDP in the three months ended March 31, 2015, mineral products are Peru’s main export and they accounted for 56.0% and 50.5% of total exports by value in the three months ended March 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively. Gold and copper accounted for 20.9% (U.S.$1.7 billion) and 21.6% (U.S.$1.8 billion) of total exports by value, respectively, during the three months ended March 31, 2015 and 16.9% (U.S.$1.6 billion) and 20.8% (U.S.$2.0 billion) of total exports by value, respectively, during the same period in 2014. In addition, copper accounted for 38.6% of total mining exports in the three months ended March 31, 2015 and 41.2% in the three months ended March 31, 2014.

Hydrocarbons. In the three months ended March 31, 2015, the hydrocarbon sector decreased 4.2% as compared to the same period in 2014, mainly due to higher levels of production of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas.

Secondary Production

Manufacturing

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, the manufacturing sector decreased by 5.2% as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2014, primarily due to non-primary manufacturing activity, which decreased by 3.1% and primary manufacturing activity, which decreased by 11.1%.

Primary manufacturing. In the three months ended March 31, 2015, the primary manufacturing sector decreased by 11.1% compared to the same period in 2014, due in part to a decrease in the production of the fishing industry, non-ferrous precious metals, petroleum refining products, peeled rice, and sugar refining.

Non-primary manufacturing. In the three months ended March 31, 2015, non-primary manufacturing decreased 3.1%, as compared to the same period in 2014, mainly due to a decrease in demand for capital and consumer goods (caused by the decrease in foreign demand).

 

6


Construction

The construction sector decreased 6.8% in the three months ended March 31, 2015 and contributed 5.7% to GDP. This growth was associated with internal consumption of cement and an increase in projects for basic services and improvements to the nationwide highway network.

Electricity and Water

Electricity. In the three months ended March 31, 2015, the electricity sub-sector grew 5.2% due to an increase in the production of electricity.

Water. In the three months ended March 31, 2015, water grew 2.3% due to the increase in the production volumes of SEDAPAL.

Services

Wholesale and Retail Trade

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, wholesale and retail trade increased by 3.6% due primarily to wholesale and retail commerce and the maintenance and repair of automobiles.

Other Services

The private sector in Peru offers a variety of services constituting the “Other Services” sector of Peru’s GDP that in aggregate is an important part of the Peruvian economy. The Other Services sector includes services to companies, government services, transportation and communication, healthcare and education services, tourism and financial services. In aggregate, this sector grew 4.1% in the three months ended March 31, 2015, compared to the same period in 2014.

As a result, the “Other Services” sector accounted for 49.6% of GDP in the three months ended March 31, 2015, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the same period in 2014.

Public Administration

Based on an audit undertaken of the public sector, the total number of public employees as of March 31, 2015 was 1.8 million, of which 39.6% are active workers, 47.2% are pensioners and 13.2% are non-personal service workers. Most public employees are placed in regional governments, economy and finance and education ministries.

Privatization and Concessions

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, concessions reached U.S. $36.8 million in projected investments. Significant investment was made in the energy sector.

Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade

Balance of Payments

The following table provides information, based on period-end exchange rates, regarding Peru’s balance of payments for the periods presented.

 

7


Balance of Payments

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014      2015  

Current account:

     

Trade balance:

     

Exports (FOB)(1)

     9,780         8,091   

Imports (FOB)(1)

     (9,959      (9,182
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Trade balance

     (180      (1,091

Services, net

     (474      (500

Of which:

     

Net income from tourism(2)

     314         321   

Net income from transportation(3)

     (341      (343

Financial and investment income, net(4)

     (2,435      (1,792

Current transfers, net

     891         760   

Of which:

     

Workers’ remittances

     633         627   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Current account balance

     (2,198      (2,623

Capital account:

     

Foreign direct investment

     2,485         2,242   

Portfolio investment

     (61      (5

Other medium and long-term capital(5)

     (599      612   

Of which:

     

Disbursements to the public sector

     (566      1,288   

Other capital, including short-term capital

     (862      203   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Capital account balance

     962         3,052   

Errors and omissions(6)

     385         (872
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Balance of payments

     (851      (443

Financing:

     

Change in gross Central Bank reserves(7)

     850         443   

Exceptional financing, net

     1         —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total financing

     851         443   

Memorandum item:

     

Current account balance (deficit) (as a % of GDP)

     (4.6      (5.7

 

(1)  Based on customs declarations, records of temporary admissions, free-trade zone imports, grants and other adjustments.
(2)  Based on a survey of tourists. Income from tourism represents the total expenditure by a tourist multiplied by the total number of tourists.
(3)  Includes freight services, passenger transportation and port expenses of ships and airplanes.
(4)  Includes interest payments.
(5)  Includes debt amortization payments.
(6)  Represents errors and omissions from double-entry accounting resulting from incomplete or overlapping coverage, different prices and incomplete times of recording and conversion practices.
(7)  Refers to changes in reserve used to finance balance of payments and corresponds to net international reserves excluding the use of IMF resources.

Source: Central Bank.

 

8


Current Account

Peru’s current account registered a deficit of U.S.$2.6 billion, or 5.7% of GDP, primarily due to a decrease in the trade balance to U.S.$1.1 billion, in the three months ended March 31, 2015, compared to the same period in 2014.

Trade Balance

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, exports decreased by 17.3% compared to the same period in 2014, primarily due to a lower number of shipments of mining, oil and natural gas products, as well as the contraction in traditional exports to the United States, China and Japan and non-traditional exports to Colombia, China and Brazil. Imports decreased by 7.8% in the three months ended March 31, 2015, compared to the same period in 2014, principally as a result of imports of capital goods, transportation equipment, inputs and fuel.

In the three months ended March 31, 2015 and 2014, Peru’s exports consisted primarily of exports of:

 

    traditional mineral exports, such as gold, silver, copper, zinc and lead, valued at U.S. $4.5 billion during the three months ended March 31, 2015, representing 56.0% of total exports in such period, and valued at U.S. $4.9 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2014, representing 50.5% of total exports for such period;

 

    petroleum and derivative products valued at U.S. $0.6 billion during the three months ended March 31, 2015, representing 7.6% of total exports in such period, and valued at U.S. $1.1 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2014, representing 11.7% of total exports for such period;

 

    traditional fishing exports, such as fishmeal and fish oil, valued at U.S. $0.2 billion during the three months ended March 31, 2015, representing 2.2% of total exports in such period, and valued at U.S. $0.7 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2014, representing 7.0% of total exports for such period;

 

    non-traditional textile exports, such as textile fibers and cloth, valued at U.S.$0.3 million during the three months ended March 31, 2015, representing 4.2% of total exports in such period, and valued at U.S. $0.4 million in the three months ended March 31, 2014, representing 4.6% of total exports for such period; and

 

    non-traditional agriculture and livestock exports valued at U.S. $1.0 billion during the three months ended March 31, 2015, representing 12.9% of total exports in such period, and valued at U.S. $1.0 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2014, representing 10.2% of total exports for such period.

The following tables provide further information on exports for the periods presented.

 

9


Exports

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014      2015  

Traditional:

     

Fishing

     689         175   

Agricultural

     91         46   

Mineral

     4,938         4,534   

Petroleum and derivatives

     1,142         619   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total traditional

     6,860         5,374   

Non-traditional:

     

Agriculture and livestock

     998         1,047   

Fishing

     332         305   

Textiles

     447         343   

Timbers and papers, and manufactures

     108         91   

Chemical

     373         351   

Non-metallic minerals

     156         168   

Basic metal industries and jewelry

     285         251   

Fabricated metal products and machinery

     130         105   

Other products(1)

     31         35   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total non-traditional

     2,860         2,697   

Other products(2)

     60         20   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total exports

     9,780         8,091   

 

(1)  Includes leather and handcrafts.
(2)  Includes the sale of fuel and food to foreign vessels and the repair of foreign vessels.

Source: Central Bank.

Exports

(as a percentage of total exports, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014      2015  

Traditional:

     

Fishing

     7.0         2.2   

Agricultural

     0.9         0.6   

Mineral

     50.5         56.0   

Petroleum and derivatives

     11.7         7.7   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total traditional

     70.1         66.4   

Non-traditional:

     

Agriculture and livestock

     10.2         12.9   

Fishing

     3.4         3.8   

Textiles

     4.6         4.2   

Timbers and papers, and manufactures

     1.1         1.1   

Chemical

     3.8         4.3   

Non-metallic minerals

     1.6         2.1   

Basic metal industries and jewelry

     2.9         3.1   

Fabricated metal products and machinery

     1.3         1.3   

Other products(1)

     0.3         0.4   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total non-traditional

     29.2         33.3   

Other:

     

Other products(2)

     0.6         0.2   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total exports

     100.0         100.0   

 

(2)  Includes leather and handcrafts.
(3)  Includes the sale of fuel and food to foreign vessels and the repair of foreign vessels.

Source: Central Bank.

 

10


In 2014 and 2015, Peru’s imports consisted primarily of imports of:

 

    intermediate goods, such as fuels and raw materials for agricultural and industrial production, valued at U.S. $4.0 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2014, representing 43.6% of total imports for such period, and valued at U.S. $4.7 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2015, representing 47.0% of total imports for such period;

 

    capital goods, such as transportation and building equipment, valued at U.S. $2.9 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2014, representing 32.1% of total imports for such period, and valued at U.S. $3.2 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2015, representing 31.9% of total imports for such period; and

 

    consumer goods valued at U.S. $2.1 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2014, representing 23.0% of total imports for such period, and valued at U.S. $2.1 billion in the three months ended March 31, 2015, representing 20.9% of total imports for such period.

 

11


The following tables provide further information regarding imports for the periods presented.

Imports

(in millions of US dollars, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014      2015  

Consumer goods:

     

Durable goods

     951         953   

Non-durable goods

     1,127         1,160   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total consumer goods

     2,078         2,113   

Intermediate goods:

     

Petroleum products, lubricants

     1,600         827   

Raw materials for agriculture

     279         318   

Raw materials for manufacturing

     2,798         2,856   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total intermediate goods

     4,677         4,000   

Capital goods:

     

Construction materials

     355         345   

For agriculture

     27         34   

For manufacturing

     2,132         2,002   

Transportation equipment

     659         563   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total capital goods

     3,173         2,944   

Other(1)

     31         125   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total imports

     9,959         9,182   

Memorandum items:

     

Temporal admission imports(2)

     83         77   

Imports into free trade zone(3)

     47         49   

 

(1)  Includes the donation of goods, the purchase of fuels and Peruvian foodstuffs and the repair of capital goods in the exterior such as other goods not falling into any one of the classifications used.
(2)  Imports that must be processed and exported within a definite period of time and are not subject to tariffs.
(3)  Imports through the Special Zone of Tacna, which is primarily dedicated to the assembly of motor vehicles. Peru has five free trade zones, but only the Tacna zone is economically active.

Source: Central Bank.

 

12


Imports

(as a percentage of total imports, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014      2015  

Consumer goods:

     

Durable goods

     9.5         10.4   

Non-durable goods

     11.3         12.6   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total consumer goods

     20.9         23.0   

Intermediate goods:

     

Petroleum products, lubricants

     16.1         9.0   

Raw materials for agriculture

     2.8         3.5   

Raw materials for manufacturing

     28.1         31.1   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total intermediate goods

     47.0         43.6   

Capital goods:

     

Construction materials

     3.6         3.8   

For agriculture

     0.3         0.4   

For manufacturing

     21.4         21.8   

Transportation equipment

     6.6         6.1   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total capital goods

     31.9         32.1   

Other(1)

     0.3         1.4   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total import

     100.0         100.0   

Memorandum items:

     

Temporal admission imports(2)

     0.8         0.8   

Imports into free trade zone(3)

     0.5         0.5   

 

(1)  Includes the donation of goods, the purchase of fuels and Peruvian foodstuffs and the repair of capital goods in the exterior such as other goods not falling into any one of the classifications used.
(2)  Imports that must be processed and exported within a definite period of time and are not subject to tariffs.
(3)  Imports through the Special Zone of Tacna, which is primarily dedicated to the assembly of motor vehicles. Peru has five free trade zones but only the Tacna zone is economically active.

Source: Central Bank.

Capital Account

The capital account reflects foreign direct investment and monetary flows into and out of a nation’s financial markets.

For the three months ended March 31, 2015, the capital account balance increased by 217.3%, compared to the same period ended March 31, 2014 to a surplus of U.S. $3.0 billion, compared to the same period ended March 31, 2014. This increase in the three months ended March 31, 2015 was due primarily to major levels of other medium- and long-term capital and other capital including short term capital reduced investment in sovereign bonds by non-residents, and a reduction in the balance of bank liabilities abroad, in the context of greater levels of liquidity in dollars and reduced demand for assets denominated in dollars.

 

13


Geographic Distribution of Exports

(as a percentage of total exports, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014      2015  

United States

     16.1         14.4   

Canada

     6.2         8.4   

Mexico

     1.9         2.1   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total North America

     24.4         25.1   

Brazil

     4.0         4.6   

Colombia

     3.1         2.7   

Chile

     3.7         3.2   

Venezuela

     1.2         0.7   

Other

     9.9         9.1   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Latin America and the Caribbean

     21.9         20.4   

United Kingdom

     1.4         0.8   

Switzerland

     6.1         8.5   

Germany

     2.9         2.1   

Spain

     3.4         3.7   

Other

     7.8         8.9   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Europe

     21.5         24.1   

Japan

     5.0         3.5   

China

     19.8         18.8   

Other

     5.9         6.2   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Asia

     30.7         28.5   

Africa and others

     1.6         1.9   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total exports

     100.0         100.0   

 

Source: Central Bank.

Geographic Distribution of Imports

(as a percentage of total imports, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014      2015  

United States

     22.4         20.7   

Canada

     1.6         2.0   

Mexico

     4.1         4.6   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total North America

     28.2         27.4   

Brazil

     4.1         4.1   

Colombia

     3.0         3.2   

Chile

     2.7         2.9   

Venezuela

     0.1         0.1   

Other

     11.2         7.6   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Latin America and the Caribbean

     21.0         17.8   

United Kingdom

     0.7         0.8   

Switzerland

     0.7         0.5   

Germany

     4.0         2.9   

Spain

     2.2         1.6   

Other

     6.9         6.1   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Europe

     14.5         11.8   

Japan

     2.5         2.6   

China

     19.4         23.8   

Other

     10.8         13.2   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Asia

     32.7         39.6   

Africa and others

     3.6         3.4   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total imports

     100.0         100.0   

 

Source: Central Bank.

 

14


The Monetary System

Monetary Policy

The inflation rate for the three months ended March 31, 2015 was 3.02% (the Central Bank’s target annual inflation rate for the period was set between 1% and 3%). The Central Bank continues to pursue monetary policies aimed at ensuring that actual inflation remains within the target range. Because of the reduction in inflationary pressure resulting from this more stable price environment, the government believes that the inflation rate will converge to the target rate set by the Central Bank.

The Central Bank maintained the reference rate at 3.25% as of March 31, 2015.

In June 2014, the Central Bank lowered the reserve requirements for financial institutions as of June 2014 to 12% and 45% on deposits for Nuevos Soles and U.S. Dollars, respectively.

Liquidity and Credit Aggregates

The following table presents the composition of the monetary base and international reserves as of the dates shown.

Monetary Base and Central Bank’s International Reserves

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     As of March 31,  
     2014      2015  

Currency in circulation and cash in vaults at banks

     14,261         14,546   

Commercial bank deposits at the Central Bank

     2,294         905   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Monetary base

     16,555         15,450   

Gross international reserves

     65,000         61,384   

Net international reserves

     64,954         61,323   

 

Source: Central Bank.

Net international reserves decreased from approximately U.S.$65.0 billion as of March 31, 2014, to approximately U.S.$61.3 billion as of March 31, 2015.

 

15


The following tables present liquidity and credit aggregates, and changes in selected monetary indicators as of the dates shown.

Liquidity and Credit

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     As of
March 31,
2015
 

Monetary aggregates

  

Currency in circulation

     11,921   

M1

     20,868   

M2

     46,747   

M3

     71,962   

Credit by sector(1)

  

Public sector (Net)(2)

     (25,389

Private sector

     74,786   
  

 

 

 

Total credit aggregates

     49,398   

Deposits

  

Local currency(3)

     33,706   

Foreign currency(4)

     25,081   
  

 

 

 

Total deposits

     58,787   
  

 

 

 

 

(1) Includes securities offerings and cash advances from checking accounts of depository corporations.
(2)  Net claims on public sector of depository corporations.
(3)  Includes sight deposits, saving deposits, time deposits and other certificates in domestic currency of depository corporations.
(4)  Includes demand deposits, savings deposits and time deposits in foreign currency of depository corporations.

Source: Central Bank.

Public Sector Finances

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, the non-financial public sector surplus was U.S. $2.4 billion, or 5.1% of GDP. This surplus was largely attributable to increased current revenues driven by non-financial public sector spending.

The following tables provide information on the non-financial public sector accounts for the periods presented.

 

16


Consolidated Accounts of the Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS)

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014      2015(1)  

Primary balance:

     

Central government

     2,705         1,497   

Decentralized agencies

     228         175   

Local governments

     663         1,133   

State-owned enterprises

     (26      251   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Primary NFPS

     3,569         3,055   

Interest payments:

     

External debt

     220         213   

Domestic debt

     480         484   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total interest payments

     699         696   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Overall NFPS

     2,879         2,359   

Financing:

     

External

     110         151   

Domestic

     (2,982      (2,536

Privatization

     2         27   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total financing

     (2,870      (2,359

 

(1)  Preliminary data.

Source: Central Bank.

Consolidated Accounts of the Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS)

(as a percentage of GDP, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014      2015(1)  

Primary balance:

     

Central government

     5.7         3.3   

Decentralized agencies

     0.5         0.4   

Local governments

     1.4         2.5   

State-owned enterprises

     (0.1      0.5   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Primary NFPS

     7.5         6.7   

Interest payments:

     

External debt

     0.5         0.5   

Domestic debt

     1.0         1.1   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total interest payments

     1.5         1.5   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Overall NFPS

     6.0         5.1   

Financing:

     

External

     0.2         0.3   

Domestic

     (6.2      (5.5

Privatization

     —           0.1   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total financing

     (6.0      (5.1

 

(1)  Preliminary data.

Source: Central Bank.

 

17


Central Government

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, total government revenues were U.S.$8.7 billion, or 19% of GDP, compared to U.S. $10 billion, or 20.9% of GDP, in the same period in 2014.

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, total government expenditures were U.S.$7.2 billion, or 15.8% of GDP, compared to U.S. $7.3 billion, or 15.3% of GDP, in the same period in 2014.

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, the primary surplus was U.S. $1.5 billion, or 3.3% of GDP, compared to U.S. $2.7 billion, or 5.7% of GDP, in the same period in 2014.

 

18


The following tables provide information regarding government accounts for the periods presented.

Central Government Accounts

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014(1)      2015(1)  

Fiscal revenue:

     

Current revenue:

     

Tax revenue:

     

Income tax

     4,048         3,494   

Capital gains tax

     —           —     

Taxes on goods and services

     5,034         4,693   

General Sales Tax

     4,561         4,245   

Excise taxes

     473         449   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Import tariffs

     142         141   

Other taxes

     (597      (705
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total tax revenue

     8,627         7,623   

Non-tax revenue(2)

     1,348         1,004   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total current revenue

     9,975         8,627   

Capital revenue

     27         113   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total fiscal revenue

     10,001         8,740   

Expenditures:

     

Current non-financial expenditures:

     

Wages and salaries

     2,169         2,153   

Goods and services

     1,426         1,472   

Current transfers

     1,884         1,746   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total current non-financial expenditures

     5,480         5,371   

Capital expenditures:

     

Fixed investment

     970         745   

Other

     847         1,127   

Of which:

     

Capital transfers

     756         840   

Total capital expenditures

     1,817         1,872   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total expenditures

     7,297         7,243   

Fiscal balance:

     

Primary fiscal balance

     2,705         1,497   

Interest

     645         647   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Overall fiscal balance

     2,059         850   

Financing:

     

Foreign financing

     (81      169   

Domestic financing

     (1,981      (1,046

Privatization

     2         27   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total financing

     (2,059      (850

 

(1)  Preliminary data.
(2)  Includes transfers from state-owned enterprises and royalties from petroleum companies.

Source: Central Bank.

 

19


Central Government Accounts

(as a percentage of GDP, at current prices)

 

     For the three months
ended March 31,
 
     2014(1)      2015(1)  

Fiscal revenue:

     

Current revenue:

     

Tax revenue:

     

Income Tax

     8.5         7.6   

Capital gains tax

     —           —     

Taxes on goods and services:

     10.5         10.2   

General Sales Tax

     9.5         9.2   

Excise taxes

     1.0         1.0   

Import tariffs

     0.3         0.3   

Other taxes

     (1.2      (1.5
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total tax revenue

     18.0         16.6   

Non-tax revenue(2)

     2.8         2.2   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total current revenue

     20.9         18.8   

Capital revenue

     0.1         0.2   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total fiscal revenue

     20.9         19.0   

Expenditures:

     

Current non-financial expenditures:

     

Wages and salaries

     4.5         4.7   

Goods and services

     3.0         3.2   

Current transfers

     3.9         3.8   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total current non-financial expenditures

     11.5         11.7   

Capital expenditures:

     

Fixed investment

     2.0         1.6   

Other

     1.8         2.5   

Of which:

     

Capital transfers

     1.6         1.8   

Total capital expenditures

     3.8         4.1   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total expenditures

     15.3         15.8   

Fiscal balance:

     

Primary fiscal balance

     5.7         3.3   

Interest

     1.3         1.4   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Overall fiscal balance

     4.3         1.9   

Financing:

     

Foreign financing

     (0.2      0.4   

Domestic financing

     (4.1      (2.3

Privatization

     —           0.1   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total financing

     (4.3      (1.9

 

(1)  Preliminary data.
(2)  Includes transfers from state-owned enterprises and royalties from petroleum companies.

Source: Central Bank.

 

20


Tax Regime

All government taxes in Peru are collected by the Superintendencia Nacional de Administración Tributaria, or SUNAT. SUNAT’s budget is determined primarily through a percentage-based funding mechanism that provides the agency with 1.6% of its domestic tax collections and with 1.5% of import tariffs.

The following table presents the composition of Peru’s tax revenues for the periods presented.

Tax Revenue of Peru (Central Government)

(as a percentage of total tax revenue)

 

     2014(1)      2015(1)  

Income Tax

     

Individual

     11.3         11.8   

Corporate

     29.1         28.1   

Clearing

     6.5         5.9   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

     46.9         45.8   

Taxes on goods and services

     

Value-Added Tax

     52.9         55.7   

Fuel tax

     2.1         2.2   

Other

     3.4         3.7   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Excise Tax

     5.5         5.9   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total taxes on goods and services

     58.3         61.6   

Import tariffs

     1.6         1.8   

Other taxes

     5.0         4.0   

Tax refund

     (11.9      (13.3
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

     100.0         100.0   

 

(1)  Reflects adjustments to reconcile estimated income tax withheld with actual income tax liabilities.

Source: Central Bank.

Public Sector Debt

Peru’s total public sector debt consists of foreign currency-denominated debt and nuevo sol-denominated debt. Peru’s total public external debt consists of loans from foreign creditors to the government, the Central Bank and public sector entities.

External Debt

As of March 31, 2015, taking account of swap agreements, 49.8% of public external debt was denominated in nuevos soles. As of March 31, 2015, public external debt totaled U.S. $19.9 billion, or 9.9% of GDP, compared to U.S. $18.7 billion, or 9.3% of GDP, as of December 31, 2014.

 

21


The following tables provide further information on public sector external debt as of the dates presented.

Public Sector External Debt

(in millions of U.S. dollars, except for percentages)

 

     As of March 31,  
     2014      2015  

Official non-reserves liabilities:

     

Public sector

     18,739         19,947   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total official non-reserves liabilities

     18,739         19,947   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total official liabilities

     18,739         19,947   

Total public sector external debt as % of GDP(1)

     9.3         9.9   

Total public sector external debt as % of total exports(1)

     44.5         52.7   

 

(1)  Peru does not include IMF credit use in reports of total public sector external debt. Debt ratios are calculated on the basis of Peru’s total official non-reserve liabilities.

Source: Central Bank.

Public Sector External Debt, Net of Reserves

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     As March 31,
2015
 

Public sector external debt(1)

     19,947   

Gross international reserves of the Central Bank

     (61,384
  

 

 

 

Public sector external debt, net of reserves

     (41,437

 

(1)  Peru does not include IMF credit use in reports of total public sector external debt.

Source: Central Bank.

The following table provides information on capital flows from multilateral lenders for the periods presented.

Capital Flows from Multilateral Lenders

(in millions of U.S. dollars)

 

     As of March 31,  
     2014      2015  

World Bank:

     

Disbursements minus principal amortizations

     (30.4      304.9   

Disbursements minus principal, interests and commissions

     (36.5      299.1   

IADB:

     

Disbursements minus principal amortizations

     (13.0      (2.0

Disbursements minus principal, interests and commissions

     (27.0      (15.6

 

Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance (Dirección Nacional del Endeudamiento Público, or General Bureau of Public Debt and Treasury).

 

22


In March 2015, Peru issued U.S.$545 million in principal amount of its 5.625% U.S. Dollar-Denominated Global Bonds Due 2050 and approved a contingent credit facility with the World Bank for an amount of U.S.$400 million.

For the three months ended March 31, 2015, disbursements included U.S. $942.8 million for projects primarily in the economy and 2016 pre-financing.

The following tables summarize public sector external debt by creditor for the periods indicated.

 

23


Public Sector External Debt by Creditor(1)

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     As of March 31,  
     2014      2015  

Official creditors:

     

Multilateral debt:

     

IADB

     1,997         2,088   

World Bank

     1,794         2,143   

IFAD(2)

     31         27   

IMF

     —           —     

OPEC(3)

     1         —     

CAF

     1,840         1,672   

Other(4)

     11         5   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total multilateral debt

     5,673         5,935   

Bilateral debt:

     

Paris Club

     618         487   

United States (Paris Club)

     45         39   

Latin America

     4         2   

East European countries and China

     4         —     

Japan (Paris Club)

     1,319         1,094   

Other countries

     —           —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total bilateral debt

     1,989         1,622   

Total official debt

     7,662         7,557   

Private creditors:

     

Banking

     534         1,152   

Suppliers

     23         19   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total private sector debt

     557         1,171   

Bonds:

     

Brady + Global Bonds

     10,520         11,219   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total bonds

     10,520         11,219   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total public sector external debt

     18,739         19,947   

 

(1)  Medium- and long-term debt, excluding IMF financing.
(2)  Refers to the International Fund for Agricultural Development.
(3)  Refers to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
(4)  Includes European Investment Bank (EIB) and Nordic Investment Bank (NIB).

Source: Ministry of Economy (Office of Public Credit).

Public Sector External Debt by Creditor(1)

(as a percentage of total public sector external debt)

 

     As of
March 31, 2015
 

Official creditors:

  

Multilateral debt:

  

IADB

     10.5   

World Bank

     10.7   

IFAD(2)

     0.1   

IMF

     —     

OPEC(3)

     —     

 

24


     As of
March 31, 2015
 

CAF

     8.4   

Other

     —     
  

 

 

 

Total multilateral debt

     29.8   

Bilateral debt:

  

Paris Club

     2.4   

United States

     0.2   

Latin America

     —     

East Europe countries and China

     —     

Japan

     5.5   

Other countries

     —     

Total bilateral debt

     8.1   
  

 

 

 

Total official debt

     37.9   

Private creditors:

  

Banking

     5.8   

Suppliers

     0.1   
  

 

 

 

Total private sector debt

     5.9   

Bonds:

  

Brady + Global Bonds

     56.2   
  

 

 

 

Total bonds

     56.2   
  

 

 

 

Total public sector external debt

     100.0   

 

(1)  Medium- and long-term debt, excluding IMF financing.
(2)  Refers to the International Fund for Agricultural Development.
(3)  Refers to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Source: Ministry of Economy (Office of Public Credit).

Public Sector External Debt Structure by Maturity Term

(in millions of U.S. dollars and as a percentage of total public sector external debt)(1)

 

     As of
March 31, 2015
 

Short-term debt

     61   

Medium- and long-term debt

     19,947   
  

 

 

 

Total

     20,007   

Short-term debt (as a % of total public sector external debt)

     0.3   

Medium- and long-term debt (as a % of total public sector external debt)

     99.7   

 

(1)  Includes Central Bank debt.

Source: Central Bank.

 

25


The following table provides public sector external debt by currency as of December 31, 2014 and March 31, 2015.

Summary of Public Sector External Debt by Currency(1)(2)

(in millions of U.S. dollars, except for percentages)

 

     As of December 31,
2014
     As of March 31,
2015
 
     U.S.$      %      U.S.$      %  

Currency

           

U.S. Dollar

     17,594         89.0         17,786         89.2   

Japanese yen

     1,114         5.6         1,176         5.9   

Special Drawing Rights (SDR)(3)

     30         0.2         27         0.1   

Euro

     480         2.4         418         2.1   

Swiss Franc

     265         1.3         270         1.4   

Nuevo sol(4)

     280         1.4         270         1.4   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

     19,764         100.0         19,947         100.0   

 

(1)  Exchange rate as of March 31, 2015.
(2)  Includes outstanding Cofide loans not guaranteed by Peru.
(3)  World Bank unit of account, based on a basket of national currencies.
(4)  IADB loans converted to nuevos soles.

Source: Ministry of Economy (Dirección General de Crédito Público (Office of Public Credit)).

The following table provides information regarding Peru’s public sector external debt service as of the dates presented.

Public Sector External Debt Service(1)

(in millions of U.S. dollars, except for percentages)

 

     As of March 31,
2014
     As of March 31,
2015
 

Interest payments

     245         253   

Amortization

     135         777   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total public sector external debt service

     380         1,030   

As % of total exports(2)

     3.3         10.5   

As % of total exports and workers’ remittances

     3.1         9.8   

As % of GDP

     0.8         2.2   

As % of total fiscal revenue

     3.8         11.8   

 

(1)  Medium-and long-term debt service; excludes Central Bank debt and excludes extraordinary financing and refinancing.
(2)  Includes exports of goods and services and investment income.

Source: Central Bank.

In the three months ended March 31, 2015, interest payments on public sector external debt was U.S. $253.0 million, or 2.2% of GDP. In that same period, Peru paid U.S. $29 million to international organizations, U.S. $7 million to Paris Club creditors, U.S. $201 million to holders of sovereign bonds, U.S. $1 million to holders of Brady bonds, and U.S. $15 million to other creditors.

 

26


Peru issued public sector external bonds in connection with the Brady restructuring. As of March 31, 2015 approximately U.S. $53.7 million in principal remained outstanding on the Brady Bonds.

Domestic Debt

The following table provides total public sector domestic debt, excluding intra-governmental debt, as of the dates presented.

Total Public Sector Domestic Debt

(in millions of U.S. dollars, at current prices)

 

     As of March 31,  
     2014      2015  

Long-term debt:

     

Banco de la Nación

     781         972   

Treasury bonds

     16,145         17,947   

Other

     —           —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total long-term debt

     16,926         18,918   

Short-term debt

     1,311         1,170   
  

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total

     18,237         20,089   

Total public sector domestic debt, as % of GDP

     9.0         10.0   

 

Source: Central Bank.

Public Sector Domestic Bonds(1)

(in millions of U.S. Dollars, at current prices)

 

     As of March 31,  
     2014      2015  

Central Bank Capitalization bonds

     —           66   

Financial system support bonds

     122         122   

Debt exchange bonds

     549         443   

Pension recognition bonds

     2,578         2,229   

Sovereign bonds

     12,896         15,087   

Other bonds

     —           —     

Total

     16,145         17,947   

 

(1) Excludes intra-government debt issued in the form of bonds.

Source: Central Bank.

Debt Record

For further information regarding Peru’s indebtedness outstanding as of the date of this prospectus supplement , see Annex A – Republic of Peru: Global Public Sector External Debt.

 

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