Investments

3 Months Ended

Mar. 31, 2016

Investments

3. Investments

 (a) Unrealized Gains and Losses

The amortized cost or cost and the fair value of AFS securities as of March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015 are summarized as follows:

	Amortized Cost or Cost		Gross Unrealized Gains		Gross Unrealized Losses		Fair Value
	($ in millions)
As of March 31, 2016
Equity securities:
Common stock	$	2,637.8	$	307.7	$	(56.4)	$	2,889.1
Preferred stock		-		-		-		-
Total equity securities		2,637.8		307.7		(56.4)		2,889.1
Debt securities:
U.S. Government obligations		1,147.7		19.2		(0.7)		1,166.2
Municipal bonds		4,268.9		159.4		(8.4)		4,419.9
Foreign government obligations		1,061.7		29.9		(0.2)		1,091.4
U.S. corporate bonds		1,979.7		50.2		(18.5)		2,011.4
Foreign corporate bonds		1,035.2		32.0		(3.7)		1,063.5
Mortgage and asset-backed securities:
RMBS		1,296.7		18.8		(2.0)		1,313.5
CMBS		1,009.7		16.0		(8.2)		1,017.5
Other asset-backed securities(1)		1,585.7		1.5		(52.4)		1,534.8
Total debt securities		13,385.3		327.0		(94.1)		13,618.2
Short-term investments		493.6		-		-		493.6
Total	$	16,516.7	$	634.7	$	(150.5)	$	17,000.9

	Amortized Cost  or Cost		Gross Unrealized Gains		Gross Unrealized Losses		Fair Value
	($ in millions)
As of December 31, 2015
Equity securities:
Common stock	$	2,741.0	$	351.9	$	(87.0)	$	3,005.9
Preferred stock		-		-		-		-
Total equity securities		2,741.0		351.9		(87.0)		3,005.9
Debt securities:
U.S. Government obligations		1,086.8		1.9		(14.0)		1,074.7
Municipal bonds		4,213.6		134.8		(8.8)		4,339.6
Foreign government obligations		924.1		18.6		(1.3)		941.4
U.S. corporate bonds		2,201.3		23.4		(48.0)		2,176.7
Foreign corporate bonds		1,219.0		24.0		(12.7)		1,230.3
Mortgage and asset-backed securities:
RMBS		1,255.1		10.7		(12.4)		1,253.4
CMBS		1,024.8		8.2		(9.6)		1,023.4
Other asset-backed securities(1)		1,605.2		0.3		(39.0)		1,566.5
Total debt securities		13,529.9		221.9		(145.8)		13,606.0
Short-term investments		365.8		-		-		365.8
Total	$	16,636.7	$	573.8	$	(232.8)	$	16,977.7

(1) Includes $913.9 million and $946.7 million of collateralized loan obligations as of March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively.

 (b) Contractual Maturity

The amortized cost and estimated fair value of debt securities by contractual maturity as of March 31, 2016 are shown below. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.

	Amortized Cost or Cost		Fair Value
	($ in millions)
Short-term investments due in one year or less	$	493.6	$	493.6
Mortgage and asset-backed securities(1)		3,892.1		3,865.8
Debt securities with maturity dates:
One year or less		416.2		418.1
Over one through five years		2,851.5		2,895.3
Over five through ten years		3,079.9		3,176.6
Over ten years		3,145.6		3,262.4
Total debt securities		13,385.3		13,618.2
Equity securities		2,637.8		2,889.1
Total	$	16,516.7	$	17,000.9

(1) Mortgage and asset-backed securities by their nature do not generally have single maturity dates.

 (c) Net Investment Income

Net investment income for the three months ended March 31, 2016 and 2015 were as follows:

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2016		2015
	($ in millions)
Interest income	$	101.2	$	94.7
Dividend income		12.1		14.5
Investment expenses		(6.9)		(7.3)
Equity in results of Pillar Investments(1)		3.1		6.6
Equity in results of Ares(1)		0.4		2.3
Equity in results of ORX		-		(1.0)
Other investment results		(5.0)		3.6
Total	$	104.9	$	113.4

(1) See Note 3(g) for discussion of the Pillar Investments and the investment in Ares as defined therein.

As of March 31, 2016, non-income producing invested assets were insignificant.

 (d) Realized Gains and Losses

The proceeds from sales of AFS securities were $2.5 billion and $2.7 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2016 and 2015, respectively.

Realized capital gains and losses for the three months ended March 31, 2016 and 2015 primarily reflect sales of equity and debt securities. Gross realized capital gains and gross realized capital losses for the three months ended March 31, 2016 and 2015 were as follows:

	Three Months Ended March 31,
	2016		2015
	($ in millions)
Gross realized capital gains	$	82.4	$	114.4
Gross realized capital losses		(46.5)		(71.3)
Net realized capital gains	$	35.9	$	43.1

Gross realized loss amounts exclude OTTI losses, as discussed below.

 (e) OTTI Losses

Alleghany holds its equity and debt securities as AFS, and as such, these securities are recorded at fair value. Alleghany continually monitors the difference between cost and the estimated fair value of its equity and debt investments, which involves uncertainty as to whether declines in value are temporary in nature. The analysis of any individual security’s decline in value is performed in its functional currency. If the decline of a particular security is deemed temporary, Alleghany records the decline as an unrealized loss in stockholders’ equity. If the decline is deemed to be other than temporary, Alleghany writes its cost-basis or amortized cost-basis down to the fair value of the security and records an OTTI loss on its statement of earnings. In addition, any portion of such decline related to debt securities that is believed to arise from factors other than credit is recorded as a component of other comprehensive income rather than charged against earnings.

Management’s assessment of equity securities initially involves an evaluation of all securities that are in an unrealized loss position, regardless of the duration or severity of the loss, as of the applicable balance sheet date. Such initial review consists primarily of assessing whether: (i) there has been a negative credit or news event with respect to the issuer that could indicate the existence of an OTTI; and (ii) Alleghany has the ability and intent to hold an equity security for a period of time sufficient to allow for an anticipated recovery (generally considered to be one year from the balance sheet date).

To the extent that an equity security in an unrealized loss position is not impaired based on the initial review described above, Alleghany then further evaluates such equity security and deems it to be other than temporarily impaired if it has been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more or if its unrealized loss position is greater than 50 percent of its cost, absent compelling evidence to the contrary.

Alleghany then evaluates those equity securities where the unrealized loss is at least 20 percent of cost as of the balance sheet date or which have been in an unrealized loss position continuously for six months or more preceding the balance sheet date. This evaluation takes into account quantitative and qualitative factors in determining whether such securities are other than temporarily impaired including: (i) market valuation metrics associated with the equity security (such as dividend yield and price-to-earnings ratio); (ii) current views on the equity security, as expressed by either Alleghany’s internal stock analysts and/or by third-party stock analysts or rating agencies; and (iii) credit or news events associated with a specific issuer, such as negative news releases and rating agency downgrades with respect to the issuer of the equity security.

Debt securities in an unrealized loss position are evaluated for OTTI if they meet any of the following criteria: (i) they are trading at a discount of at least 20 percent to amortized cost for an extended period of time (nine consecutive months or longer); (ii) there has been a negative credit or news event with respect to the issuer that could indicate the existence of an OTTI; or (iii) Alleghany intends to sell, or it is more likely than not that Alleghany will sell, the debt security before recovery of its amortized cost basis.

If Alleghany intends to sell, or it is more likely than not that Alleghany will sell, a debt security before recovery of its amortized cost basis, the total amount of the unrealized loss position is recognized as an OTTI loss in earnings. To the extent that a debt security that is in an unrealized loss position is not impaired based on the preceding, Alleghany will consider a debt security to be impaired when it believes it to be probable that Alleghany will not be able to collect the entire amortized cost basis. For debt securities in an unrealized loss position as of the end of each quarter, Alleghany develops a best estimate of the present value of expected cash flows. If the results of the cash flow analysis indicate Alleghany will not recover the full amount of its amortized cost basis in the debt security, Alleghany records an OTTI loss in earnings equal to the difference between the present value of expected cash flows and the amortized cost basis of the debt security. If applicable, the difference between the total unrealized loss position on the debt security and the OTTI loss recognized in earnings is the non-credit related portion and is recorded as a component of other comprehensive income.

In developing the cash flow analyses for debt securities, Alleghany considers various factors for the different categories of debt securities. For municipal bonds, Alleghany takes into account the taxing power of the issuer, source of revenue, credit risk and credit enhancements and pre-refunding. For mortgage and asset-backed securities, Alleghany discounts its best estimate of future cash flows at an effective rate equal to the original effective yield of the security or, in the case of floating rate securities, at the current coupon. Alleghany’s models include assumptions about prepayment speeds, default and delinquency rates and underlying collateral (if any), as well as credit ratings, credit enhancements and other observable market data. For corporate bonds, Alleghany reviews business prospects, credit ratings and available information from asset managers and rating agencies for individual securities.

OTTI losses in the first quarter of 2016 reflect $20.8 million of unrealized losses that were deemed to be other than temporary and, as such, were required to be charged against earnings. Upon the ultimate disposition of the securities for which OTTI losses have been recorded, a portion of the loss may be recoverable depending on market conditions at the time of disposition. Of the $20.8 million of OTTI losses, $5.3 million related to equity securities, primarily in the financial services, technology and chemical sectors, and $15.5 million related to debt securities, primarily in the energy sector. The determination that unrealized losses on equity and debt securities were other than temporary was primarily due to the severity and duration of the decline in the fair value of equity and debt securities relative to their costs.

OTTI losses in the first quarter of 2015 reflect $52.3 million of unrealized losses that were deemed to be other than temporary and, as such, were required to be charged against earnings. All of the OTTI losses incurred in the first quarter of 2015 related to equity securities, primarily in the energy and gaming sectors. The determination that unrealized losses on such securities were other than temporary was primarily based on the duration of the decline in the fair value of equity securities relative to their costs.

After adjusting the cost basis of securities for the recognition of OTTI losses, the remaining gross unrealized investment losses for debt and equity securities as of March 31, 2016 were deemed to be temporary, based on, among other factors: (i) the duration of time and the relative magnitude to which the fair value of these investments had been below cost were not indicative of an OTTI loss (for example, no equity security was in a continuous unrealized loss position for 12 months or more as of March 31, 2016); (ii) the absence of compelling evidence that would cause Alleghany to call into question the financial condition or near-term business prospects of the issuer of the security; and (iii) Alleghany’s ability and intent to hold the security for a period of time sufficient to allow for any anticipated recovery.

Alleghany may ultimately record a realized loss after having originally concluded that the decline in value was temporary. Risks and uncertainties are inherent in the methodology. Alleghany’s methodology for assessing other than temporary declines in value contains inherent risks and uncertainties which could include, but are not limited to, incorrect assumptions about financial condition, liquidity or future prospects, inadequacy of any underlying collateral and unfavorable changes in economic conditions or social trends, interest rates or credit ratings.

 (f) Aging of Gross Unrealized Losses

As of March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, gross unrealized losses and related fair values for equity securities and debt securities, grouped by duration of time in a continuous unrealized loss position, were as follows:

	Less Than 12 Months				12 Months or More				Total
	Fair Value		Gross Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Gross Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Gross Unrealized Losses
	($ in millions)
As of March 31, 2016
Equity securities:
Common stock	$	1,030.5	$	56.4	$	-	$	-	$	1,030.5	$	56.4
Preferred stock		-		-		-		-		-		-
Total equity securities		1,030.5		56.4		-		-		1,030.5		56.4
Debt securities:
U.S. Government obligations		110.0		0.7		4.3		-		114.3		0.7
Municipal bonds		203.0		1.0		155.4		7.4		358.4		8.4
Foreign government obligations		152.9		0.2		2.6		-		155.5		0.2
U.S. corporate bonds		300.6		15.0		157.3		3.5		457.9		18.5
Foreign corporate bonds		122.2		1.4		72.7		2.3		194.9		3.7
Mortgage and asset-backed securities:
RMBS		7.9		0.1		334.1		1.9		342.0		2.0
CMBS		372.8		6.5		35.1		1.7		407.9		8.2
Other asset-backed securities		950.8		35.7		275.3		16.7		1,226.1		52.4
Total debt securities		2,220.2		60.6		1,036.8		33.5		3,257.0		94.1
Total temporarily impaired securities	$	3,250.7	$	117.0	$	1,036.8	$	33.5	$	4,287.5	$	150.5
	Less Than 12 Months				12 Months or More				Total
	Fair Value		Gross Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Gross Unrealized Losses		Fair Value		Gross Unrealized Losses
	($ in millions)
As of December 31, 2015
Equity securities:
Common stock	$	1,355.6	$	87.0	$	-	$	-	$	1,355.6	$	87.0
Preferred stock		-		-		-		-		-		-
Total equity securities		1,355.6		87.0		-		-		1,355.6		87.0
Debt securities:
U.S. Government obligations		818.4		13.9		7.9		0.1		826.3		14.0
Municipal bonds		276.2		2.4		108.3		6.4		384.5		8.8
Foreign government obligations		208.5		1.3		-		-		208.5		1.3
U.S. corporate bonds		1,149.8		39.0		70.0		9.0		1,219.8		48.0
Foreign corporate bonds		479.9		10.8		12.5		1.9		492.4		12.7
Mortgage and asset-backed securities:
RMBS		511.1		6.5		250.6		5.9		761.7		12.4
CMBS		593.1		9.4		15.1		0.2		608.2		9.6
Other asset-backed securities		1,164.8		27.2		265.0		11.8		1,429.8		39.0
Total debt securities		5,201.8		110.5		729.4		35.3		5,931.2		145.8
Total temporarily impaired securities	$	6,557.4	$	197.5	$	729.4	$	35.3	$	7,286.8	$	232.8

As of March 31, 2016, Alleghany held a total of 587 debt securities and equity securities that were in an unrealized loss position, of which 155 securities, all debt securities, were in an unrealized loss position continuously for 12 months or more. The unrealized losses associated with the 155 debt securities consisted primarily of losses related to other asset-backed securities, municipal bonds and U.S. corporate bonds.

As of March 31, 2016, the vast majority of Alleghany’s debt securities were rated investment grade, with approximately 4.2 percent of debt securities having issuer credit ratings that were below investment grade or not rated, compared with 3.6 percent as of December 31, 2015.

 (g) Investments in Certain Other Invested Assets

In December 2012, TransRe obtained an ownership interest in Pillar Capital Holdings Limited (“Pillar Holdings”), a Bermuda-based insurance asset manager focused on collateralized reinsurance and catastrophe insurance-linked securities. Additionally, TransRe invested $175.0 million and AIHL invested $25.0 million in limited partnership funds managed by Pillar Holdings (the “Funds”). The objective of the Funds is to create portfolios with attractive risk-reward characteristics and low correlation with other asset classes, using the extensive reinsurance and capital market experience of the principals of Pillar Holdings. Alleghany has concluded that both Pillar Holdings and the Funds (collectively, the “Pillar Investments”) represent variable interest entities and that Alleghany is not the primary beneficiary, as it does not have the ability to direct the activities that most significantly impact each entity’s economic performance. Therefore, the Pillar Investments are not consolidated and are accounted for under the equity method of accounting. Alleghany’s potential maximum loss in the Pillar Investments is limited to its cumulative net investment. As of March 31, 2016, Alleghany’s carrying value in the Pillar Investments, as determined under the equity method of accounting, was $225.4 million, which is net of returns of capital received from the Pillar Investments.

In July 2013, AIHL invested $250.0 million in Ares Management LLC (“Ares”), an asset manager, in exchange for a 6.25 percent equity stake in Ares, with an agreement to engage Ares to manage up to $1.0 billion in certain investment strategies. In May 2014, Ares completed an initial public offering of its common units. Upon completion of the initial public offering, Alleghany’s equity investment in Ares converted to limited partner interests in certain Ares subsidiaries that are convertible into an aggregate 5.9 percent interest in Ares common units. As of March 31, 2016, at Alleghany’s discretion, half of these interests may be converted at any time, and the remaining half may be converted starting in May 2016. Until Alleghany determines to convert its limited partner interests into Ares common units, Alleghany classifies its investment in Ares as a component of other invested assets, and accounts for its investment using the equity method of accounting. As of March 31, 2016, AIHL’s carrying value in Ares was $222.5 million, which is net of returns of capital received from Ares.

 (h) Investments in Commercial Mortgage Loans

As of March 31, 2016, the carrying value of the commercial loan portfolio was $279.9 million, representing the unpaid principal balance on the loans. As of March 31, 2016, there was no allowance for loan losses. The commercial loan portfolio consists primarily of first mortgages on commercial properties in major metropolitan areas in the U.S. The loans earn interest at fixed- and floating-rates, mature in 2-10 years and the principal lent was no more than approximately two-thirds of each property’s appraised value at the time the loan was made.