EX-99.1 2 dex991.htm EXHIBIT 99.1 EXHIBIT 99.1

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Table of contents

 

1.    Highlights    1
   1.1    Introduction    1
   1.2    Overview of embedded value life insurance and total embedded value    3
   1.3    New business    4
2.    Economic assumptions    5
3.    Reconciliation of total capital base to adjusted net worth    6
4.    Outcome    8
   4.1    Value components    8
   4.2    Movement analysis of embedded value life insurance    11
5.    Sensitivities    17
   5.1    Embedded value life insurance sensitivity    17
   5.2    Value of new business sensitivity    18
Addendum 1: Movement analysis per region and product segment    19
   AEGON Group    19
   Americas    20
   The Netherlands    21
   United Kingdom    22
   Asia    23
   Central and Eastern Europe    24
   Other European Countries    25
Addendum 2: Outcome based on the regulatory surplus requirement    26
Addendum 3: Recoverability of DPAC    27
Addendum 4: Exchange rates    28
Addendum 5: Methodology    29
   Scope    29
   Methodology and definitions    29
   Operating assumptions    31
   Economic assumptions    32
   Embedded options and guarantees    32
   Required capital    32
Addendum 6: Detailed economic assumptions    34
Glossary and abbreviations    38
   Glossary    38
   Abbreviations    41
Disclaimer    42



1. Highlights

1.1 Introduction

AEGON has long used embedded value as a management tool for its life insurance operations. AEGON’s management believes that embedded value, in conjunction with other publicly disclosed financial information, can provide valuable additional information for investors and shareholders to assess a reasonable range of values inherent in the business. The disclosure includes sensitivity analyses reflecting certain risks and drivers of the realization of embedded value.

Embedded value life insurance is an estimate of the economic value of a company’s existing life insurance business and is to a large extent actuarially determined. Embedded value life insurance should not be viewed as a substitute for AEGON’s primary financial statements.

Embedded value life insurance represents the contributed capital invested in AEGON’s life operations, available surplus or adjusted net worth (ANW), and the value of in-force life business (VIF). The latter equals the present value of expected future profits arising from the existing book of life insurance business, including new business sold in the reporting period, less the cost of capital. Future new business that is sold after the valuation date is not reflected in this value, although certain assumptions such as unit costs reflect a going concern basis.

Total embedded value (TEV) is an additional measure used by management in considering shareholders’ interest in the value of the existing business. TEV represents the sum of the embedded value life insurance, the IFRS book value of all other business that is not included in EVLI (other activities) and the adjustments in respect of holding companies (holding activities). The holding activities largely represent the market value of AEGON’s debt, capital securities and other net liabilities. IFRS measures have been used to value the holding activities as this is the accounting basis on which AEGON’s primary 2005 financial statements are based.

From January 1, 2005, all publicly listed companies in the European Union – including AEGON - are required to prepare their financial statements in conformity with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). EVLI is a function of future local regulatory distributable earnings, and hence is not impacted by the change to IFRS accounting except in the Netherlands operations where the local regulatory environment has also changed to IFRS. In the 2005 EV disclosure, the value of other activities has changed from being carried at DAP equity to being carried at IFRS equity. The primary material adjustment on moving from DAP to IFRS relates to the US Pension Plan which reduced other activities’ carrying value by approximately EUR 0.7 billion after tax (as of year-end 2004). The change to IFRS is incorporated in the adjusted year-end 2004 EV.

Embedded value life insurance calculations use local regulatory accounting principles rather than company specific accounting principles (e.g. IFRS) as these regulatory requirements determine when profits can be distributed to shareholders. As the base case, EVLI has been prepared using required capital on the internal surplus basis. This presentation has been adopted as this is how the business is managed and is consistent with European Embedded Value (EEV) Principles.

The methodology AEGON uses to calculate EVLI is described in addendum 5. This methodology is consistent with EEV Principles. This disclosure document is in compliance with the additional guidance on minimum required disclosures of sensitivities and other items under EEV, as published by the CFO Forum in October 2005.

 

Embedded value 2005   1


AEGON’s new operations in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia and partnerships in China, France and Spain have been included in the 2005 EVLI and VNB. In comparative 2004 EV figures in this report, these operations (except Poland, which was acquired in 2005) have been included at IFRS book value under other activities in the TEV figures. The impact of including these operations in EVLI is captured in miscellaneous impacts in the movement analysis.

 

Embedded value 2005   2


1.2 Overview of embedded value life insurance and total embedded value

A high level overview of embedded value life insurance and total embedded value is contained in table 1. More details on these values, the principles and assumptions used plus the sensitivity of these values to changes in underlying assumptions are included in this document and should be read carefully in connection with the information presented below. All figures in this document are presented on an after tax basis unless otherwise stated.

Table 1

 

 

Embedded value

(amounts in millions unless stated otherwise, after tax)

   Year-end
2005
    Year-end
2004
    %  
   EUR     EUR (A)    

Life business

      

Adjusted net worth (ANW)

   15,969     12,896     24  

Free surplus (FS)

   3,184     1,957     63  

Required surplus (RS)

   12,785     10,939     17  

Value of in-force life business (ViF)

   11,624     9,748     19  

Present value future profits (PVFP)

   14,877     12,487     19  

Cost of capital (CoC)

   (3,253 )   (2,740 )   19  

Embedded value life insurance (EVLI)

   27,593     22,643     22  
                  

Other activities

      

IFRS book value

   68     665     (90 )

Total embedded value before holding activities

   27,661     23,308     19  

Holding activities

   (6,677 )   (6,841 )   (2 )

Market value of debt, capital securities & other net liabilities

   (6,433 )   (6,642 )   (3 )

Present value holding expenses

   (244 )   (199 )   23  

Total embedded value (TEV)

   20,984     16,467     27  

Value of preferred share capital

   (1,462 )   (1,601 )   (9 )
                  

Total embedded value (TEV) attributable to common shareholders

   19,522     14,866     31  

TEV attributable to common shareholders per share (EUR)

   12.39     9.76     27  
                  

(A) Adjusted for the move to IFRS for regulatory accounting in the Netherlands, a required surplus change in Taiwan, the adoption of IFRS in the value of other activities and the presentation of holding debt at market value.

The most important items impacting the change in embedded value life insurance during 2005 are1:

 

  ¨   Embedded value operating return2 of EUR 1.9 billion, consisting of in-force performance of EUR 1.4 billion and new business value of EUR 0.6 billion.

 

  ¨   The strengthening of the US dollar against the euro. This had a positive impact of EUR 2.1 billion on the EVLI. If the figures in this table had been prepared on a constant currency basis, the increases in EVLI and TEV would have been 12% and 16% respectively.

 

  ¨   A positive investment variance of EUR 1.7 billion.

 

  ¨   Net capital movements out of the life operations, which reduced the EVLI by EUR 0.7 billion.

The value of the other activities decreased by EUR 0.6 billion. EUR 0.4 billion of this decrease was due to the inclusion of AEGON’s operations in the Czech Republic and Slovakia and partnerships in China,

 


1 For a more detailed analysis, please refer to section 4.2 ‘Movement analysis of embedded value life insurance’.
2 For embedded value operating margins on a constant currency basis, please refer to addendum 1: ‘Movement analysis based per region and product segment’.

 

Embedded value 2005   3


France and Spain in EVLI in 2005 where these were included in other activities at IFRS book value in total embedded value in the 2004 comparative figures in table 1. The remainder of the difference is mainly due to dividends paid from country level holdings in Americas and the Netherlands to the parent company and the sale of the non-life business in Spain.

The value of the holding activities increased (i.e. became less negative) mainly as a result of net capital distributions from life subsidiaries and participations and other (non-life) activities (EUR 1.2 billion), somewhat offset by cash dividend to shareholders (EUR (0.3) billion), currency movements (EUR (0.3) billion) and interest payments on holding debt (EUR (0.4) billion).

1.3 New business

The profitability of the policies sold in 2005 can be measured by the gross value of new business, which is equal to the value of new business (VNB) generated by new business sold during the reporting period, grossed up at the relevant corporate tax rate and adjusted for the cost of carrying required capital on the internal surplus basis.

Table 2

 

Value of new business

(amounts in millions)

   2005
EUR
    2004
EUR
    %

Gross value of new business

   1,122     986     14

Tax

   (360 )   (325 )   11

Cost of capital

   (212 )   (172 )   23

Value of new business

   550     489     13

The regional groupings used in table 3 below and throughout the report are as follows:

 

  ¨   Americas consists of AEGON Canada and AEGON USA;

 

  ¨   Asia consists of AEGON Taiwan and AEGON’s 50% interest in its partnership in China;

 

  ¨   Central and Eastern Europe consists of AEGON’s operations in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia; and

 

  ¨   Other European Countries consists of AEGON Spain, AEGON’s 35% interest in La Mondiale Participations (France) and AEGON’s 50% interest in Mediterráneo Vida (Spain).

Table 3

 

Value of new business

(amounts in millions, after tax)

   2005
EUR
   2004
EUR
   %  

Americas

   273    311    (12 )

The Netherlands

   39    29    35  

United Kingdom

   98    78    26  

Asia

   83    48    71  

Central and Eastern Europe

   27    20    33  

Other European Countries

   30    2    N.M.  

Total

   550    489    13  

Value of new business increased 13% from 2004 (12% if calculated on a constant currency basis).3

 


3 For a more detailed analysis, please refer to section 4.2 ‘Movement analysis of embedded value life insurance’.

 

Embedded value 2005   4


2. Economic assumptions

The economic assumptions for AEGON’s main markets in 2005 and 2004 are presented in table 4. The assumptions are set using a market based approach with rates that can vary by country unit and change from year to year taking into account available empirical data.

Further detail on the setting of discount rates and the economic assumptions in other countries is described in addendum 5 and 6 respectively.

Table 4

Economic assumptions 2005

 

      United States     The Netherlands     United Kingdom  

Discount rate

   8.00 %   6.70 %   7.20 %

Equity returns

   8.00 %   6.70 %   7.20 %

Property returns

   6.50 %   6.50 %   7.20 %

Risk free fixed interest returns (A)

   4.39 %   3.30 %   4.00 %

Net credit spread on fixed interest (bps) (B)

   86     29     52  

Inflation rate

   2.00 %   2.00 %   2.00 %

Tax rate

   35.00 %   30.00 %   30.00 %
Economic assumptions 2004       
      United States     The Netherlands     United Kingdom  

Discount rate

   8.00 %   7.20 %   7.80 %

Equity returns

   8.00 %   7.20 %   7.80 %

Property returns

   6.50 %   6.50 %   7.80 %

Risk free fixed interest returns (A)

   4.27 %   3.75 %   4.60 %

Net credit spread on fixed interest (bps) (B)

   74     38     53  

Inflation rate

   2.00 %   2.00 %   2.00 %

Tax rate

   35.00 %   34.50 %   30.00 %

(A) Risk free fixed interest returns correspond to the 10-year government bond yield. The table above shows start rates only. Refer to table 23 for more detail.
(B) Average net credit spread in basis points (bps) of all corporate bonds, mortgages, loans, etc. over the ‘fixed interest returns’. The table above shows start rates only. Refer to table 23 for more detail.

All economic assumptions are reviewed each year and adjusted if appropriate. All assumptions reflect a going concern. The currency exchange rates are summarized in addendum 4: Exchange rates.

The main changes since 2004 have been a decrease in risk free fixed interest returns and corresponding discount rates and equity returns for the Netherlands and UK.

 

Embedded value 2005   5


3. Reconciliation of total capital base to adjusted net worth

The embedded value life insurance is not based on international financial reporting standards (IFRS). Rather, it is based on local regulatory accounting. As the base case, EVLI has been prepared using required capital on the internal surplus basis. The following reconciliation presents the adjustments to the total capital base under IFRS to arrive at the ANW that is based on local regulatory accounting rules.

Table 5

Reconciliation of total capital base to ANW

(amounts in EUR millions)

 

     2005     2004     %  
         as adjusted (A)    

Total capital

      

AEGON shareholders’ equity (B)

   19,276     14,875     30  

Capital securities & subordinated debt

   4,100     3,501     17  

Minority interest

   15     15     —    

Senior debt related to insurance activities (C)

   2,059     2,270     (9 )
              

Total capital base

   25,450     20,661     23  

Other net liabilities (D)

   48     594     (92 )
              

Total capital base and other net liabilities

   25,498     21,255     20  

Capital in units

      

Americas

   16,232     13,373     21  

The Netherlands

   5,011     4,038     24  

United Kingdom

   3,100     2,842     9  

Asia

   264     154     71  

Central and Eastern Europe

   314     201     56  

Other European Countries

   578     646     (11 )
              

Total

   25,498     21,255     20  

Allocated to

      

Life subsidiaries

   25,430     20,590     24  

Other activities

   68     665     (90 )
              

Total

   25,498     21,255     20  

Reconciliation capital in life subsidiaries to adjusted net worth

      

Capital in life subsidiaries

   25,430     20,590     24  

Adjustments to local equity

   (9,462 )   (7,695 )   23  
              

Adjusted net worth (ANW)

   15,969     12,896     24  
              

(A) 2004 figures have been adjusted for the adoption of IFRS.
(B) Including the preferred share capital (2005: EUR 2,111 million, 2004: EUR 2,109 million)
(C) Borrowings (of which related to insurance activities): EUR 5,532 million (EUR 2,059 million) in 2005 and EUR 5,662 million (EUR 2,270 million) in 2004.
(D) Carried at the holding companies.

The capital base is largely invested in the life subsidiaries. The remaining capital allocated to other activities is included in total embedded value at IFRS book value. In the reconciliation, the capital allocated to life subsidiaries is adjusted to local regulatory accounting. The largest part of the adjustment relates to the non-admissibility on a regulatory basis of DPAC/VOBA of the modeled life business4. The Netherlands’

 


4 The non-admissibility of certain assets on a local basis simultaneously decreases equity while increasing future profits as the margins that are available to amortize these intangible assets on an IFRS basis go straight to the bottom-line under regulatory accounting. In other words, the decrease in equity when going from IFRS to the local basis is largely offset by an increase in the value of the in-force business.

 

Embedded value 2005   6


life insurance DPAC (EUR 0.5 billion after tax) is not eliminated, as it is an admissible asset under Dutch regulatory accounting. The after tax impact of the elimination of inadmissible DPAC/VOBA relating to the modeled life business equals EUR (12.3) billion. The balance of the adjustments, EUR 2.8 billion, is mainly explained by the impact of the differing reserve and asset valuation bases and the marking-to-market of the assets backing surplus for the EVLI calculation.

The differences between embedded value and the accounting treatment of DPAC are discussed in addendum 3.

 

Embedded value 2005   7


4. Outcome

This section presents the EVLI and TEV as of December 31, 2005. All profits are in millions of euro and based on local regulatory accounting net of reinsurance and after tax. The level of required surplus is based on internal surplus requirements.

4.1 Value components

The values under the internal surplus requirements are:

Table 6

Embedded value components

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

 

     Americas     The
Netherlands
    United
Kingdom
    Asia     Central and
Eastern
Europe
    Other
European
Countries
    Total 2005  

Life business

              

Adjusted net worth (ANW)

   9,527     5,127     745     101     181     287     15,969  

Free surplus (FS)

   993     1,922     146     34     114     (24 )   3,184  

Required surplus (RS)

   8,534     3,205     600     67     68     312     12,785  

Value of in-force life business (ViF)

   6,548     1,414     2,748     460     313     141     11,624  

Present value future profits (PVFP)

   8,921     1,900     2,902     546     343     264     14,877  

Cost of capital (CoC)

   (2,373 )   (486 )   (154 )   (86 )   (31 )   (124 )   (3,253 )

Embedded value life insurance (EVLI)

   16,075     6,540     3,494     561     494     428     27,593  

Other activities

              

IFRS book value

   303     (92 )   (239 )   —       76     20     68  

Total embedded value per region

   16,378     6,449     3,255     561     570     448     27,661  

Holding activities

               (6,677 )

Market value of debt, capital securities & other net liabilities

               (6,433 )

Present value holding expenses

               (244 )

Total embedded value (TEV)

               20,984  

Value of preferred share capital

               (1,462 )

Total embedded value (TEV) attributable to common shareholders

               19,522  
                  

The solvency requirement on which the business is managed is based on the more stringent of the regulatory requirements and 165% of Standard and Poors’ local capital adequacy models, plus any additional internally imposed requirements, if applicable. The exception is AEGON’s partnership in France, La Mondiale Participations, which is managed on local regulatory requirements. This then forms the basis for the solvency requirements for that business throughout this report.

The main areas covered by other activities are banking (EUR 0.4 billion), distribution (EUR 0.1 billion) and general insurance (EUR 0.6 billion). This is offset by pensions and employee benefits (EUR (0.3) billion) and internal financing between holding companies in the country units, life companies and the parent company (EUR (0.8) billion).

Other activities decreased by EUR 0.4 billion due to the inclusion of AEGON’s operations in the Czech Republic and Slovakia and partnerships in China, France and Spain in EVLI in 2005 where these were included in other activities at IFRS book value in total embedded value in the 2004 comparative figures in table 1. The remainder of the decrease is mainly due to dividends paid from country level holdings in Americas and the Netherlands to the parent company and the sale of the non-life business in Spain.

 

Embedded value 2005   8


The embedded value life insurance increased due to the positive impact of currency exchange movements, better investment experience during 2005 than assumed levels, strong performance on the in-force business and the contribution from value of new business. For a detailed discussion of the change in embedded value life insurance from end of year 2004 to end of year 2005 refer to section 4.2

Non-recurring expenses

For all countries, any expected efficiency gains from restructuring programs have not been reflected in the expense assumptions.

In total an amount of EUR 34 million after tax was considered as non-recurring expenses (Americas EUR 2 million, UK EUR 6 million, the Netherlands EUR 19 million and Spain EUR 7 million).

For newer operations, including operations in China, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, the value of new business and the projection of expenses in the embedded value life insurance reflect longer term expected run rate acquisition and maintenance expenses. In total, an amount of EUR 22 million after tax of 2005 incurred expenses was not included in the derivation of acquisition and maintenance expense assumptions.

Employee pension plan costs

Expense assumptions in the embedded value include the cost of providing employee pension benefits where appropriate. The allowance for these costs fully reflects the long-term cost of providing pensions and is consistent with the allowance for pensions elsewhere in the calculation of the total embedded value. Any pension surplus or deficit has been included at the IFRS book value. For the Americas where overfunding on employee pension plans is already reflected in IFRS book value (in other activities), no contribution holidays with respect to this pension asset are taken into account in the pension contribution expenses in the embedded value.

 

Embedded value 2005   9


Free surplus

Table 7

Reconciliation of free surplus

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

 

      Americas    

The

Netherlands

   

United

Kingdom

    Asia    

Central and

Eastern

Europe

   

Other

European

Countries

    Total 2005  

Free surplus (BOY) (A)

   660     950     168     6     149     23     1,957  

Change in MV adjustment on FS

   5     —       —       (0 )   4     (1 )   9  

Return on free surplus

   21     266     25     0     9     —       321  

Earnings on inforce

   1,525     679     347     (10 )   48     (2 )   2,586  

Release of required surplus on inforce

   653     9     (18 )   (18 )   (17 )   (285 )   325  

Investment in new business

   (1,277 )   (136 )   (332 )   (55 )   (21 )   (6 )   (1,828 )

Capital movements

   (769 )   (4 )   (38 )   99     7     1     (704 )

Currency exchange differences

   143     —       5     2     (3 )   —       147  

Other

   31     159     (12 )   10     (63 )   246     372  

Free surplus (EOY)

   993     1,922     146     34     114     (24 )   3,184  

(A) Adjusted for the move to IFRS for regulatory accounting in the Netherlands and a required surplus change in Taiwan.

The economic value of free surplus in the life business increased over 2005 mainly due to:

 

  ¨   net earnings from operations based on local regulatory accounting of EUR 2.6 billion,

 

  ¨   return on free surplus of EUR 0.3 billion,

 

  ¨   release of required surplus on in-force business of EUR 0.3 billion, and

 

  ¨   other movements of EUR 0.3 billion mainly due to the inclusion of partnerships in France and Spain in the EVLI,

with some offset from

 

  ¨   investment in new business including acquisition expenses and required capital on new business of EUR (1.8) billion, and

 

  ¨   capital movements including transfers from life operations to holding activities and non-life operations of EUR (0.7) billion.

 

Embedded value 2005   10


4.2 Movement analysis of embedded value life insurance

The change in embedded value life insurance from year to year is split into the following components5. The main items per region will be explained in further detail after table 8 and table 10.

Table 8

Movement analysis 2005

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

 

      Americas    

The

Netherlands

   

United

Kingdom

    Asia(C)    

Central and

Eastern

Europe (C)

   

Other

European

Countries (C)

    Total
2005
 

Embedded value life insurance
BoY (A)

   12,850     5,898     3,025     368     418     83     22,643  

Value of new business (VNB)

   273     39     98     83     27     30     550  

Gross value of new business

   615     96     157     139     41     74     1,122  

Tax

   (215 )   (29 )   (47 )   (35 )   (8 )   (26 )   (360 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (127 )   (28 )   (12 )   (22 )   (6 )   (18 )   (212 )

In-force performance

   1,355     (167 )   123     54     24     (5 )   1,384  

Unwind of discount

   1,066     367     234     31     31     5     1,733  

Operating variances

   143     (177 )   (65 )   7     8     (9 )   (94 )

Mortality/morbidity

   24     42     3     4     1     0     74  

Persistency

   38     (21 )   (48 )   (14 )   1     (2 )   (46 )

Maintenance expenses

   4     (21 )   2     5     (1 )   0     (11 )

Exceptional expenses

   (2 )   (19 )   (6 )   0     0     (7 )   (34 )

Other

   79     (159 )   (16 )   11     7     0     (77 )

Changes in operating assumptions

   147     (356 )   (45 )   16     (15 )   (1 )   (254 )

Mortality/morbidity

   (20 )   (191 )   (3 )   1     5     0     (207 )

Persistency

   50     (33 )   (88 )   17     (5 )   0     (59 )

Maintenance expenses

   (18 )   (136 )   25     0     (9 )   (1 )   (139 )

Other

   135     4     20     (2 )   (6 )   0     151  

Embedded value operating return

   1,629     (128 )   221     137     51     25     1,935  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   51     1,392     256     (4 )   8     0     1,703  

Change in economic assumptions

   92     (410 )   (6 )   (93 )   (3 )   (4 )   (424 )

Currency exchange differences

   2,072     0     86     49     (11 )   0     2,197  

Miscellaneous impacts

   149     (207 )   (51 )   5     24     323     243  

Embedded value total return

   3,993     646     506     94     69     344     5,653  

Capital movements

   (769 )   (4 )   (38 )   99     7     1     (704 )

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   16,075     6,540     3,494     561     494     428     27,593  
                                          

Other activities

               68  

Holding activities

               (6,677 )

Total embedded value

               20,984  
                                          

Embedded value operating
margin
(B)

   11.6 %   (2.2 )%   7.1 %   34.1 %   11.4 %   30.4 %   7.8 %

Embedded value total margin

   31.1 %   11.0 %   16.7 %   25.5 %   16.4 %   N.M.     25.0 %
                                          

(A) Embedded value life insurance BoY for 2005 has been adjusted for the move to IFRS for regulatory accounting in the Netherlands and a required surplus change in Taiwan (Asia).
(B) Embedded value operating margin is calculated on a constant currency basis. See addendum 1, tables 14 to 19 for details.
(C) The impact of including AEGON’s new operations in EVLI is captured in miscellaneous impacts in the movement analysis.
5 Refer to addendum 1 ’Movement analysis per region and product segment’, tables 14 to 20, for a split per region and per product segment.

 

Embedded value 2005   11


Return on embedded value

The overall embedded value operating margin was 7.8% in 2005 (12.1% in 2004). The embedded value total margin was 25.0% in 2005 (12.7% in 2004).

Currency exchange differences

A positive currency variance of EUR 2,197 million was primarily caused by a strengthening of the US dollar against the euro with some small positive impacts also from the strengthening of the pound sterling and Taiwan dollar against the euro.

Capital movements

Capital movements include transfers from life operations to holding activities and non-life operations.

Americas

 

  ¨   The embedded value operating margin on a constant currency basis was 11.6%.

 

  ¨   The positive variance on in-force was a result of favorable morbidity in direct marketing business, favorable persistency in fixed and variable annuities and institutional products somewhat offset by unfavorable persistency in traditional life, tightening spreads in institutional products and favorable tax experience.

 

  ¨   The change in operating assumptions reflected an update to certain persistency assumptions resulting in a net positive value, improved mortality assumptions in traditional life, favorable financing costs associated with redundant statutory reserves, a positive update to tax assumptions with some offset from higher morbidity assumptions on long-term care business and higher maintenance expenses.

 

  ¨   The positive long-term investment variance was attributable to lower than expected credit losses and favorable equity returns partially offset by adverse movements in interest rates, primarily at the short end of the yield curve. While the returns in broad based equity indices were below expectations, AEGON’s equity returns were higher than expected.

 

  ¨   The positive change in economic assumptions largely reflected lower expected default costs from a new default study and the negative net impact of reductions in the risk discount rate, equity return and the risk free return in Canada.

 

  ¨   The capital movement out of the Americas EVLI reflected dividend payments made from the life operations.

 

  ¨   The miscellaneous impact mainly reflects positive modeling adjustments.

The Netherlands

 

  ¨   The embedded value operating margin was (2.2)%.

 

  ¨   The main components of the adverse in-force variance were exceptional expenses associated with the restructuring program and additional costs related to the Koersplan settlement. This was partially offset by positive mortality and morbidity experience.

 

  ¨   The changes to operating assumptions reflect an allowance for improved longevity for annuitants and an allowance for higher expenses, linked to developments in legislation and to restructuring of the business.

 

  ¨   The main components of the positive variance on long-term investments were higher than expected growth in both equities and fixed interest.

 

  ¨   For economic assumption changes, the reduction in equity and risk free rates more than offset the positive impact of the reduced discount rate.

 

  ¨   The miscellaneous impact mainly reflects adverse modeling adjustments.

 

Embedded value 2005   12


United Kingdom

 

  ¨   The embedded value operating margin on a constant currency basis was 7.1%.

 

  ¨   The main adverse variance on in-force related to persistency in unitized pensions. This resulted in a change to the future persistency assumption, which is the main adverse impact under changes to operating assumptions.

 

  ¨   Expense reduction contributed to both a positive in-force variance and to a change in operating assumptions.

 

  ¨   Strong growth in equity markets was the main driver of the variance from long-term investment returns.

 

  ¨   The main components of the miscellaneous item were a strengthening of the reserve in respect of mortgage endowment compensation, modeling adjustment and a number of smaller items making up around half of the miscellaneous item.

Asia

 

  ¨   The operations in China (50% interest in AEGON-CNOOC) were added to EVLI calculations in 2005.

 

  ¨   The embedded value operating margin on a constant currency basis was 34.1%.

 

  ¨   The main components of the in-force variance arose from the business in Taiwan. These consisted of the positive impact of a new reinsurance arrangement, positive mortality and expense experience somewhat offset by the negative current year impact from better persistency.

 

  ¨   The change in operating assumptions was mainly due to a positive update to persistency assumptions in Taiwan.

 

  ¨   The negative change in economic assumptions was due to the lowering of the fixed interest return assumption in Taiwan.

 

  ¨   The capital movement in the Asia EVLI reflected capital contributions to China and Taiwan.

Central and Eastern Europe

 

  ¨   The embedded value operating margin was 11.4%.

 

  ¨   The most significant item under in-force variance related to higher indexation of policies in Hungary reported under other variances.

 

  ¨   The main driver of the adverse change in operating assumptions relating to maintenance expenses was higher employee benefit costs in Hungary.

 

  ¨   The miscellaneous impact result reflects the movement of the business in the Czech Republic and Slovakia from an IFRS book value to an embedded value as at the end of the year.

Other European Countries

 

  ¨   The high miscellaneous impact for Other European Countries represents the restatement of the joint ventures in France and Spain from an IFRS book value to an embedded value basis.

 

  ¨   The high embedded value operating margin of 30.4% was driven by the strong new business contribution of the partnerships in France and Spain.

 

Embedded value 2005   13


Value of new business

Value of new business represents the value created by new business sold during the reporting period. Table 9 links this value to modeled written premium6.

Table 9

 

Modeled new business

APE(A) and deposits

(amounts in EUR millions)

   Premium business    Deposit business    VNB       
  

(TL, LAP, Reins, A&H)

APE (C)

  

(FA, VA, IGP, Fee)

Deposits (B) (C)

       
   2005    2004    2005    2004    2005    2004    %  

Americas

   1,418    1,485    22,584    19,438    273    311    (12 )

The Netherlands

   231    214    23    3    39    29    35  

United Kingdom

   985    934    —      —      98    78    26  

Asia

   316    195    —      —      83    48    71  

China

   4    —      —      —      0    —      —    

Taiwan

   312    195    —      —      83    48    71  

Central and Eastern Europe

   30    18    26    18    27    20    33  

Czech Republic

   2    —      —      —      0    —      —    

Hungary

   16    18    15    18    19    20    (7 )

Poland

   11    —      —      —      3    —      —    

Slovakia

   2    —      10    —      4    —      —    

Other European Countries

   174    32    —      —      30    2    N.M.  

France

   91    —      —      —      5    —      —    

Spain

   83    32    —      —      26    2    N.M.  

Total

   3,154    2,877    22,632    19,458    550    489    13  

VNB

   424    361    126    128    550    489    13  

(A) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium.
(B) Including on and off balance sheet deposits.
(C) The new premium is materially in line with new business sales including A&H under AEGON’s primary accounting basis (IFRS). Reported 2005 deposits equalled EUR 32,839 million; the difference compared to the above stated number mainly relates to the elimination of deposits on existing contracts in Americas and products not modeled for embedded value in Americas, the Netherlands and UK.
6 Refer to addendum 1 ‘Movement analysis per region and product segment’ for the split of VNB per region and per reporting segment.

 

Embedded value 2005   14


Table 10 shows VNB as a ratio of the present value of new business premiums, as well as calculated internal rates of return.

Table 10

 

2005 VNB summary

(amounts in EUR millions)

  

Premium business

(TL, LAP, Reins, A&H)

  

Deposit business

(FA, VA, IGP, Fee)

         
      VNB    PVNBP   

VNB/

PVNBP

  

VNB/

APE

   VNB    PVNBP   

VNB/

PVNBP

  

VNB/

Deposits

   Total VNB    Total IRR

Americas

   164    7,658    2.1%    11.5%    109    26,193    0.4%    0.5%    273    11.3%

The Netherlands

   34    2,010    1.7%    14.9%    5    52    9.3%    21.0%    39    9.2%

United Kingdom

   98    6,311    1.6%    9.9%    —      —      —      —      98    11.0%

Asia

   83    1,807    4.6%    26.3%    —      —      —      —      83    10.6%

China

   0    21    1.6%    9.3%    —      —      —      —      0    15.3%

Taiwan

   83    1,787    4.6%    26.5%    —      —      —      —      83    10.6%

Central and Eastern Europe

   15    210    7.3%    51.7%    12    395    3.0%    46.8%    27    33.4%

Czech Republic

   0    8    5.7%    30.5%    —      —      —      —      0    26.5%

Hungary

   10    99    10.3%    65.4%    9    178    5.0%    58.3%    19    39.9%

Poland

   3    91    3.6%    31.1%    —      —      —      —      3    25.8%

Slovakia

   1    12    11.5%    71.6%    3    217    1.4%    29.9%    4    11.7%

Other European Countries

   30    1,618    1.9%    17.3%    —      —      —      —      30    17.5%

France

   5    1,079    0.4%    5.1%    —      —      —      —      5    9.1%

Spain

   26    538    4.8%    30.7%    —      —      —      —      26    19.1%

Total

   424    19,614    2.2%    13.5%    126    26,639    0.5%    0.6%    550    12.4%
                                                 

In Americas, VNB decreased 12% in US dollars (12% in euros). VNB decreased in traditional life, accident and health and institutional products but increased in reinsurance and fee business. VNB decreased in traditional life due to reinsurance rate increases and a large volume of sales at less profitable issue ages. The VNB in accident and health decreased due to closing the long-term care business to new sales. VNB in institutional products decreased despite higher production due to lower spreads and business written being of shorter duration. The main drivers of the increase in VNB in reinsurance were increased production and more favorable costs associated with financing redundant statutory reserves while increased production also contributed to the increase in VNB in fee business. Overall IRR in the Americas decreased from 11.8% in 2004 to 11.3% in 2005, primarily due to decreases in traditional life, accident and health and institutional products with some offset from increases in reinsurance and fee business.

The increase in VNB in the Netherlands was due to an increase in volume. An adverse impact from the change in economic assumptions was partially offset by changes to pricing. The IRR in the Netherlands decreased from 10.3% in 2004 to 9.2% in 2005 as a result of a combination of the change in economic assumptions and short-term pricing pressure in the market.

The increase in VNB in UK was largely due to the movement in product mix towards higher margin products, such as annuities and protection business, along with pricing actions on other product lines. The minor reduction in IRR (11.3% in 2004 to 11.0% in 2005) arises mainly from the change in economic assumptions.

The increase in VNB in Taiwan reflects a combination of increased sales with lower margins in the first half of 2005 followed by lower sales volumes with increased margins following a re-pricing in the latter half of the year. Overall IRR in Taiwan decreased from 12.3% in 2004 to 10.6% in 2005 due to the lower margins on sales in the first half of 2005.

 

Embedded value 2005   15


The growth in VNB within Central and Eastern Europe reflected the contribution from the new countries – Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia.

The key drivers of the substantial growth in the VNB in respect of Other European Countries were the contributions from La Mondiale Participations in France and Mediterráneo Vida in Spain.

 

Embedded value 2005   16


5. Sensitivities

Table 11 and table 12 reflect the impact of changing the underlying assumptions on the EVLI and the VNB respectively. In each sensitivity scenario, only the stated assumption(s) has been changed, while keeping other assumptions equal to the ‘base case’. However, any discretionary elements or policyholder behavior assumptions directly impacted by the changed assumption (e.g. bonus rates or dynamic lapses) are assumed to vary with the scenario, if appropriate. The base case relates to the embedded value life insurance, i.e. to the value of the modeled life business. The sensitivity results include the impact on the allowances for financial options and guarantees.

5.1 Embedded value life insurance sensitivity

Table 11

 

Sensitivity analysis -

Embedded value life insurance

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   Americas   

The

Netherlands

  

United

Kingdom

   Asia   

Central and

Eastern

Europe

  

Other

European

Countries

   Total 2005

Base case embedded value life insurance 2005

   16,075    6,540    3,494    561    494    428    27,593

Required surplus at regulatory solvency

   7%    2%    1%    0%    1%    9%    5%

100 bps decrease in risk discount rate

   8%    7%    7%    19%    6%    10%    8%

100 bps increase in risk discount rate

   -6%    -6%    -6%    -15%    -6%    -9%    -6%

100 bps decrease in risk-free rate, all asset returns and RDR

   2%    -5%    2%    -46%    2%    -5%    -1%

100 bps increase in risk-free rate, all asset returns and RDR

   -3%    -2%    -2%    23%    -2%    3%    -2%

100 bps decrease in equity and property returns

   -1%    -8%    -4%    -3%    -1%    -1%    -3%

100 bps increase in equity and property returns

   2%    8%    4%    3%    1%    2%    4%

10% fall in equity markets

   -2%    -6%    -4%    -3%    -1%    -1%    -3%

10% decrease in lapse rates

   4%    0%    2%    3%    2%    2%    3%

5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates for mortality/ morbidity exposure business

   4%    0%    0%    1%    0%    1%    3%

5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates for longevity exposure business

   0%    -2%    0%    0%    0%    0%    -1%

1% mortality/ morbidity improvement per year for the entire projection period

   6%    -5%    -1%    1%    0%    2%    2%

10% decrease in maintenance expenses

   2%    1%    1%    1%    2%    3%    2%

The impact of the change in discount rate on the value of the business depends on the timing of the future profits: the higher the average remaining duration, the higher the sensitivity and the asymmetry to changes in discount rates.

The difference in sensitivity to changes in investment returns between the regions mainly reflects the composition of the different in-force life portfolios and asset allocations. The asymmetry in sensitivity to investment returns can be attributed to the minimum guarantees in many products. As a result of these guarantees, future lower investment returns will not be fully offset by equally lower crediting rates.

For the Netherlands the sensitivities linked to moving all asset returns and the risk discount rate show falls in value for both increases and decreases of 100 bps. Where rates increase the higher discount rate more than offsets the additional value generated by higher investment returns. A similar level of positive impact is generated in the sensitivity to reduced rates. However, this positive impact is more than offset by the negative impact of higher guarantee costs.

 

Embedded value 2005   17


Asia shows an asymmetric value change for the decrease and increase in investment returns. This reflects the level of guarantees underlying much of the business in Taiwan. However, the impact is lower than last year reflecting reductions in guaranteed rates on more recent business.

5.2 Value of new business sensitivity

Table 12

 

Sensitivity analysis -

Value of new business

(amounts in EUR milions, after tax)

   Americas   

The

Netherlands

  

United

Kingdom

   Asia   

Central and

Eastern

Europe

  

Other

European

Countries

  

Total

2005

Base case value of new business 2005

   273    39    98    83    27    30    550

100 bps decrease in risk discount rate

   28%    37%    30%    56%    20%    27%    33%

100 bps increase in risk discount rate

   -25%    -28%    -26%    -45%    -17%    -20%    -28%

100 bps decrease in risk-free rate, all asset returns and RDR

   11%    -18%    4%    -96%    7%    -5%    -9%

100 bps increase in risk-free rate, all asset returns and RDR

   -12%    -10%    -4%    69%    -6%    5%    3%

100 bps decrease in equity and property returns

   -5%    -19%    -14%    -8%    -1%    -2%    -8%

100 bps increase in equity and property returns

   5%    14%    14%    8%    2%    2%    7%

10% decrease in lapse rates

   15%    6%    14%    12%    7%    9%    13%

5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates for mortality/ morbidity exposure business

   24%    6%    5%    1%    1%    2%    14%

5% decrease in mortality/ morbidity rates for longevity exposure business

   -1%    -2%    -4%    0%    0%    -1%    -1%

1% mortality/ morbidity improvement per year for the entire projection period

   36%    5%    -11%    2%    1%    16%    18%

10% decrease in acquisition expenses

   10%    8%    14%    1%    9%    2%    8%

10% decrease in maintenance expenses

   9%    10%    6%    2%    5%    5%    7%

In general, the value of new business is more sensitive to changes in parameters than the in-force.

A relatively small change in future profits can have a relatively large impact on a small VNB compared to the EVLI. The size and sign of the sensitivities depend on the profitability of the individual products as well as the composition of the new business portfolio within a region. However it should be noted that these sensitivities do not provide indication of future new business profitability under alternative conditions, as no allowance is made for the potential to re-price products.

In the Netherlands, for reasons similar to the EVLI sensitivities, the sensitivity of the VNB to moving all asset returns and the risk discount rate is negative for both increase and decrease scenarios. However, the sensitivity impacts are accentuated for the VNB.

 

Embedded value 2005   18


Addendum 1: Movement analysis per region and product segment

This addendum splits the movement analysis into product segments for AEGON as a whole and for the different regions. First, the AEGON total split by reporting segment is presented in euro, then the movement of the six regions per reporting segment is stated in euro except for the Americas and the United Kingdom which are stated in local currency with only the opening and closing value and the value of the other activities translated into euro. The product segments are in line with the product segments used for primary financial reporting under IFRS.

AEGON Group

Table 13

Movement analysis 2005

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

 

     TL     LAP     FA     VA     IGP     Fee     Reins     A&H     Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (A)

   8,174     5,916     2,356     1,328     1,192     547     1,432     1,700     22,643  

Value of new business (VNB)

   198     103     14     26     49     37     85     39     550  

Gross value of new business

   411     200     39     52     108     62     173     76     1,122  

Tax

   (125 )   (61 )   (14 )   (18 )   (38 )   (18 )   (61 )   (26 )   (360 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (89 )   (36 )   (11 )   (8 )   (22 )   (7 )   (28 )   (11 )   (212 )

In-force performance

   295     46     242     245     132     100     134     190     1,384  

Unwind of discount

   606     432     194     101     97     45     125     132     1,733  

Operating variances

   (73 )   (204 )   37     91     28     1     (21 )   48     (94 )

Changes in operating assumptions

   (238 )   (182 )   12     54     8     54     30     10     (254 )

Embedded value operating return

   492     149     257     271     180     137     219     229     1,935  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   996     637     62     41     (33 )   4     (2 )   (2 )   1,703  

Change in economic assumptions

   (458 )   (53 )   59     (12 )   20     (2 )   1     20     (424 )

Currency exchange differences

   697     174     367     234     187     60     239     238     2,197  

Miscellaneous impacts

   (394 )   508     64     15     36     (8 )   32     (11 )   243  

Embedded value total return

   1,334     1,415     809     550     390     192     490     473     5,653  

Capital movements

   27     (70 )   (401 )   (68 )   (152 )   (17 )   72     (94 )   (704 )

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   9,536     7,261     2,763     1,810     1,429     721     1,994     2,079     27,593  
                                                      

Other activities

                   68  

Holding activities

                   (6,677 )

Total embedded value

                   20,984  
                                                      

Embedded value operating margin (B)

   5.6 %   2.2 %   10.0 %   18.7 %   13.8 %   23.4 %   14.0 %   12.4 %   7.8 %

Embedded value total margin

   16.3 %   23.9 %   34.3 %   41.4 %   32.7 %   35.1 %   34.2 %   27.8 %   25.0 %
                                                      
VNB, PVNBP and APE                   
(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)                   
     TL     LAP     FA     VA     IGP     Fee     Reins     A&H     Total  

Value of new business 2005

   198     103     14     26     49     37     85     39     550  

Present value of new business premiums

   8,737     7,990     1,351     6,201     8,421     10,666     1,884     1,003     46,253  

APE (C)

   1,314     1,127     —       —       —       —       209     504     3,154  

Deposits

   —       —       1,260     3,685     8,422     9,266     —       —       22,632  
                                                      

(A) Embedded value life insurance BoY for 2005 has been adjusted for the following:

Americas: transfer of certain products between lines of business, affecting TL, LAP, FA and VA; The Netherlands: adjustments for the move to IFRS in regulatory reporting; Asia: a required surplus change in Taiwan.

(B) Embedded value operating margin is calculated on a constant currency basis. See tables 14 to 19 for details.
(C) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium.

 

Embedded value 2005   19


Americas

Table 14

Movement analysis 2005

(amounts in USD millions unless stated otherwise, after tax)

 

     TL     LAP     FA     VA     IGP     Fee     Reins     A&H     Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR millions)

   4,009     588     2,356     1,328     1,192     387     1,432     1,559     12,850  
                                                      

Embedded value life insurance BoY (A)

   5,461     801     3,209     1,808     1,623     527     1,950     2,123     17,503  

Value of new business (VNB)

   30     23     18     32     61     26     105     46     340  

Gross value of new business

   117     50     49     64     135     45     216     90     766  

Tax

   (41 )   (17 )   (17 )   (23 )   (47 )   (16 )   (76 )   (31 )   (268 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (46 )   (10 )   (14 )   (10 )   (27 )   (3 )   (35 )   (13 )   (158 )

In-force performance

   289     129     302     306     164     112     168     219     1,688  

Unwind of discount

   427     64     241     126     120     40     156     153     1,328  

Operating variances

   (71 )   39     46     113     34     (6 )   (27 )   50     178  

Changes in operating assumptions

   (67 )   26     15     67     9     78     38     16     183  

Embedded value operating return

   319     151     320     338     225     138     273     265     2,028  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   (15 )   3     77     52     (41 )   (1 )   (3 )   (7 )   64  

Change in economic assumptions

   3     0     74     (15 )   24     0     2     26     115  

Currency exchange differences

   20     0     1     17     0     0     0     (13 )   25  

Miscellaneous impacts

   (19 )   42     79     19     45     (24 )   40     3     186  

Embedded value total return

   307     197     551     411     253     113     312     274     2,418  

Capital movements

   (129 )   (5 )   (500 )   (84 )   (190 )   (22 )   90     (117 )   (957 )

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   5,639     993     3,260     2,135     1,686     618     2,352     2,280     18,964  
                                                      

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR millions)

   4,780     842     2,763     1,810     1,429     524     1,994     1,933     16,075  

Other activities (EUR millions)

                   303  

Total embedded value for Americas (EUR millions)

                   16,378  
                                                      

Embedded value operating margin

   5.8 %   18.9 %   10.0 %   18.7 %   13.8 %   26.1 %   14.0 %   12.5 %   11.6 %

Embedded value total margin (B)

   21.8 %   43.8 %   34.3 %   41.4 %   32.7 %   39.9 %   34.2 %   30.0 %   31.1 %
                                                      
VNB, PVNBP and APE                   
(amounts in USD millions, after tax)                   
     TL     LAP     FA     VA     IGP     Fee     Reins     A&H     Total  

Value of new business 2005

   30     23     18     32     61     26     105     46     340  

Present value of new business premiums

   4,061     1,912     1,683     7,723     10,489     12,730     2,347     1,219     42,164  

APE (C)

   700     183     —       —       —       —       260     624     1,767  

Deposits

   —       —       1,569     4,590     10,490     11,481     —       —       28,130  
                                                      

(A) Embedded value life insurance BoY 2005 has been adjusted for the transfer of certain products between lines of business.
(B) Embedded value total margin is calculated in euros.
(C) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium.

 

Embedded value 2005   20


The Netherlands

Table 15

Movement analysis 2005

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

 

     TL     LAP     FA    VA    IGP    Fee     Reins    A&H     Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR millions)

   3,176     2,560     —      —      —      22     —      141     5,898  
                                                  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (A)

   3,176     2,560     —      —      —      22     —      141     5,898  

Value of new business (VNB)

   12     21     —      —      —      5     —      2     39  

Gross value of new business

   22     64     —      —      —      7     —      4     96  

Tax

   (7 )   (19 )   —      —      —      (2 )   —      (1 )   (29 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (4 )   (24 )   —      —      —      (0 )   —      (1 )   (28 )

In-force performance

   8     (193 )   —      —      —      5     —      14     (167 )

Unwind of discount

   190     166     —      —      —      1     —      9     367  

Operating variances

   (1 )   (186 )   —      —      —      1     —      8     (177 )

Changes in operating assumptions

   (181 )   (174 )   —      —      —      2     —      (4 )   (356 )

Embedded value operating return

   19     (173 )   —      —      —      9     —      16     (128 )

Variance from long-term inv. return

   1,009     379     —      —      —      1     —      3     1,392  

Change in economic assumptions

   (365 )   (44 )   —      —      —      0     —      (1 )   (410 )

Currency exchange differences

   0     0     —      —      —      0     —      0     0  

Miscellaneous impacts

   (654 )   460     —      —      —      0     —      (13 )   (207 )

Embedded value total return

   9     622     —      —      —      10     —      5     646  

Capital movements

   0     0     —      —      —      (4 )   —      0     (4 )

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   3,185     3,182     —      —      —      28     —      146     6,540  
                                                  

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR millions)

   3,185     3,182     —      —      —      28     —      146     6,540  

Other activities (EUR millions)

                       (92 )

Total embedded value for the Netherlands (EUR millions)

                       6,449  
                                                  

Embedded value operating margin

   0.6 %   (6.7 )%   —      —      —      41.8 %   —      11.3 %   (2.2 )%

Embedded value total margin

   0.3 %   24.3 %   —      —      —      46.2 %   —      3.4 %   11.0 %
                                                  
VNB, PVNBP and APE                       
(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)                       
     TL     LAP     FA    VA    IGP    Fee     Reins    A&H     Total  

Value of new business 2005

   12     21     —      —      —      5     —      2     39  

Present value of new business premiums

   729     1,257     —      —      —      52     —      24     2,062  

APE (B)

   73     155     —      —      —      —       —      3     231  

Deposits

   —       —       —      —      —      23     —      —       23  
                                                  

(A) Embedded value life insurance BoY for 2005 has been adjusted for the move to IFRS in regulatory reporting.
(B) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium.

 

Embedded value 2005   21


6.1 United Kingdom

Table 16

Movement analysis 2005

(amounts in GBP millions unless stated otherwise, after tax)

 

     TL     LAP     FA    VA    IGP    Fee    Reins    A&H    Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR millions)

   335     2,690     —      —      —      —      —      —      3,025  
                                                

Embedded value life insurance BoY (A)

   236     1,897     —      —      —      —      —      —      2,133  

Value of new business (VNB)

   34     33     —      —      —      —      —      —      67  

Gross value of new business

   57     51     —      —      —      —      —      —      108  

Tax

   (17 )   (15 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (32 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (6 )   (2 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (8 )

In-force performance

   (2 )   86     —      —      —      —      —      —      84  

Unwind of discount

   17     143     —      —      —      —      —      —      160  

Operating variances

   (9 )   (35 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (45 )

Changes in operating assumptions

   (10 )   (21 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (31 )

Embedded value operating return

   32     119     —      —      —      —      —      —      151  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   1     173     —      —      —      —      —      —      175  

Change in economic assumptions

   2     (6 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (4 )

Currency exchange differences

   0     (0 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (0 )

Miscellaneous impacts

   7     (42 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (35 )

Embedded value total return

   42     245     —      —      —      —      —      —      287  

Capital movements

   24     (50 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (26 )

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   303     2,092     —      —      —      —      —      —      2,394  
                                                

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR millions)

   442     3,052     —      —      —      —      —      —      3,494  

Other activities (EUR millions)

                         (239 )

Total embedded value for United Kingdom (EUR millions)

                         3,255  
                                                

Embedded value operating margin

   13.6 %   6.3 %   —      —      —      —      —      —      7.1 %

Embedded value total margin (A)

   21.1 %   16.2 %   —      —      —      —      —      —      16.7 %
                                                
VNB, PVNBP and APE                         
(amounts in GBP millions, after tax)                         
     TL     LAP     FA    VA    IGP    Fee    Reins    A&H    Total  

Value of new business 2005

   34     33     —      —      —      —      —      —      67  

Present value of new business premiums

   933     3,381     —      —      —      —      —      —      4,315  

APE (B)

   133     540     —      —      —      —      —      —      673  

Deposits

   —       —       —      —      —      —      —      —      —    
                                                

(A) Embedded value total margin is calculated in euros.
(B) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium.

 

Embedded value 2005   22


Asia

Table 17

Movement analysis 2005

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

 

      TL     LAP    FA    VA    IGP    Fee    Reins    A&H    Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR millions)

   368     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      368  
                                               

Embedded value life insurance BoY (A)

   368     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      368  

Value of new business (VNB)

   83     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      83  

Gross value of new business

   139     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      139  

Tax

   (35 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      —      (35 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (22 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      —      (22 )

In-force performance

   54     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      54  

Unwind of discount

   31     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      31  

Operating variances

   7     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      7  

Changes in operating assumptions

   16     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      16  

Embedded value operating return

   137     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      137  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   (4 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      —      (4 )

Change in economic assumptions

   (93 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      —      (93 )

Currency exchange differences

   49     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      49  

Miscellaneous impacts

   5     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      5  

Embedded value total return

   94     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      94  

Capital movements

   99     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      99  

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   561     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      561  
                                               

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR millions)

   561     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      561  

Other activities (EUR millions)

                          —    

Total embedded value for Asia (EUR millions)

                          561  
                                               

Embedded value operating margin

   34.1 %   —      —      —      —      —      —      —      34.1 %

Embedded value total margin

   25.5 %   —      —      —      —      —      —      —      25.5 %
                                               

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

                         
      TL     LAP    FA    VA    IGP    Fee    Reins    A&H    Total  

Value of new business 2005

   83     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      83  

Present value of new business premiums

   1,807     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      1,807  

APE (B)

   316     —      —      —      —      —      —      —      316  

Deposits

   —       —      —      —      —      —      —      —      —    
                                               

(A) Embedded value life insurance BoY for 2005 has been adjusted for a change in the calculation of required surplus in Taiwan.
(B) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium.

 

Embedded value 2005   23


Central and Eastern Europe

Table 18

Movement analysis 2005

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

 

      TL     LAP     FA    VA    IGP    Fee     Reins    A&H    Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR millions)

   214     67     —      —      —      137     —      —      418  
                                                 

Embedded value life insurance BoY (A)

   214     67     —      —      —      137     —      —      418  

Value of new business (VNB)

   0     15     —      —      —      12     —      —      27  

Gross value of new business

   0     21     —      —      —      19     —      —      41  

Tax

   (0 )   (5 )   —      —      —      (3 )   —      —      (8 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (0 )   (1 )   —      —      —      (4 )   —      —      (6 )

In-force performance

   9     10     —      —      —      6     —      —      24  

Unwind of discount

   14     5     —      —      —      12     —      —      31  

Operating variances

   1     2     —      —      —      5     —      —      8  

Changes in operating assumptions

   (6 )   2     —      —      —      (11 )   —      —      (15 )

Embedded value operating return

   9     25     —      —      —      18     —      —      51  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   1     2     —      —      —      5     —      —      8  

Change in economic assumptions

   (1 )   (1 )   —      —      —      (2 )   —      —      (3 )

Currency exchange differences

   (5 )   (2 )   —      —      —      (4 )   —      —      (11 )

Miscellaneous impacts

   (62 )   75     —      —      —      11     —      —      24  

Embedded value total return

   (57 )   99     —      —      —      27     —      —      69  

Capital movements

   (5 )   7     —      —      —      5     —      —      7  

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   152     173     —      —      —      169     —      —      494  
                                                 

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR millions)

   152     173     —      —      —      169     —      —      494  

Other activities (EUR millions)

                        76  

Total embedded value for Central and Eastern Europe (EUR millions)

 

                   570  
                                                 

Embedded value operating margin

   4.2 %   31.5 %   —      —      —      12.9 %   —      —      11.4 %

Embedded value total margin

   (26.6 )%   146.6 %   —      —      —      19.6 %   —      —      16.4 %
                                                 

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

                       
      TL     LAP     FA    VA    IGP    Fee     Reins    A&H    Total  

Value of new business 2005

   0     15     —      —      —      12     —      —      27  

Present value of new business premiums

   2     207     —      —      —      395     —      —      605  

APE (A)

   0     29     —      —      —      —       —      —      30  

Deposits

   —       —       —      —      —      26     —      —      26  
                                                 

(A) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

 

Embedded value 2005   24


Other European Countries

Table 19

Movement analysis 2005

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

 

      TL     LAP     FA    VA    IGP    Fee    Reins    A&H    Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR millions)

   72     11     —      —      —      —      —      —      83  
                                                

Embedded value life insurance BoY (A)

   72     11     —      —      —      —      —      —      83  

Value of new business (VNB)

   29     1     —      —      —      —      —      —      30  

Gross value of new business

   72     2     —      —      —      —      —      —      74  

Tax

   (25 )   (1 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (26 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (18 )   (0 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (18 )

In-force performance

   (5 )   (0 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (5 )

Unwind of discount

   4     1     —      —      —      —      —      —      5  

Operating variances

   (9 )   0     —      —      —      —      —      —      (9 )

Changes in operating assumptions

   (0 )   (1 )   —      —      —      —      —      —      (1 )

Embedded value operating return

   24     1     —      —      —      —      —      —      25  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   0     0     —      —      —      —      —      —      0  

Change in economic assumptions

   (4 )   0     —      —      —      —      —      —      (4 )

Currency exchange differences

   0     0     —      —      —      —      —      —      0  

Miscellaneous impacts

   323     1     —      —      —      —      —      —      323  

Embedded value total return

   343     2     —      —      —      —      —      —      344  

Capital movements

   1     0     —      —      —      —      —      —      1  

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   416     12     —      —      —      —      —      —      428  
                                                

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR millions)

   416     12     —      —      —      —      —      —      428  

Other activities (EUR millions)

                         20  

Total embedded value for Other European Countries (EUR millions)

 

                      448  
                                                

Embedded value operating margin

   33.4 %   10.3 %   —      —      —      —      —      —      30.4 %

Embedded value total margin

   N.M.     16.8 %   —      —      —      —      —      —      N.M.  
                                                

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

                        
      TL     LAP     FA    VA    IGP    Fee    Reins    A&H    Total  

Value of new business 2005

   29     1     —      —      —      —      —      —      30  

Present value of new business premiums

   1,573     45     —      —      —      —      —      —      1,618  

APE (A)

   168     6     —      —      —      —      —      —      174  

Deposits

   —       —       —      —      —      —      —      —      —    
                                                

(A) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

 

Embedded value 2005   25


Addendum 2: Outcome based on the regulatory surplus requirement

Table 20

Embedded value components - Regulatory surplus

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

 

      Americas     The
Netherlands
    United
Kingdom
    Asia     Central and
Eastern
Europe
    Other
European
Countries
    Total
2005
    Total
2004
 

Life business

                

Adjusted net worth (ANW)

   9,527     5,127     745     101     181     287     15,969     12,900  

Free surplus (FS)

   5,104     3,194     395     35     128     56     8,912     7,272  

Required surplus (RS)

   4,423     1,932     351     66     53     231     7,056     5,628  

Value of in-force life business (ViF)

   7,730     1,541     2,800     461     315     179     13,025     11,122  

Present value future profits (PVFP)

   8,921     1,900     2,902     546     343     264     14,877     12,487  

Cost of capital (CoC)

   (1,191 )   (359 )   (103 )   (86 )   (28 )   (86 )   (1,852 )   (1,365 )

Embedded value life insurance (EVLI)

   17,257     6,668     3,545     562     497     466     28,994     24,023  

Other activities

                

IFRS book value

   303     (92 )   (239 )   —       76     20     68     665  

Total embedded value per region

   17,560     6,576     3,306     562     572     486     29,062     24,687  

Holding activities

               (6,677 )   (6,841 )

Market value of debt, capital securities & other net liabilities

               (6,433 )   (6,642 )

Present value holding expenses

               (244 )   (199 )

Total embedded value (TEV)

               22,384     17,846  
                        

 

Embedded value 2005   26


Addendum 3: Recoverability of DPAC

This section discusses a number of differences between embedded value and the accounting treatment of deferred policy acquisition costs (DPAC), including value of business acquired (VOBA), with the aim of linking embedded value to DPAC. The DPAC analyzed here is on an IFRS basis as this is the accounting basis on which AEGON’s 2005 financial statements are based. Previous analyses of DPAC recoverability were performed on a DAP basis. The adoption of IFRS had no material impact on the coverage ratios.

Policy acquisition costs are deferred to the extent that they are recoverable from future expense charges in the premiums or from expected gross profits, depending on the nature of the contract. Every year the DPAC are tested by country unit and product line to assess the recoverability. Included in DPAC is the VOBA resulting from acquisitions, which is equal to a proportion of the present value of estimated future profits on insurance policies in-force related to business acquired at the time of the acquisition and is in its nature the same as deferred policy acquisition costs and also subject to the same recoverability testing.

Differences between the assessment of embedded value and DPAC/VOBA, include, but are not limited to, the following:

 

  ¨   DPAC/VOBA in most countries is based on different accounting assumptions from those used in EVLI

 

  ¨   DPAC/VOBA should be compared to IFRS profits instead of local statutory profits, on which EVLI is based

 

  ¨   DPAC/VOBA under IFRS is reported pre-tax; EVLI is on an after tax basis

In the Netherlands, DPAC/VOBA is reflected in EVLI, where it is an admissible asset.

Under the EV framework, the present value of future profits (PVFP) represents the present value of future after tax regulatory profits projected to emerge from business in the current life insurance portfolio, discounted at the embedded value discount rate. For the reasons explained above, this PVFP cannot be compared directly to the DPAC/VOBA.

To arrive at a comparable basis, the profits included in the PVFP are adjusted to represent the present value of future pre-tax IFRS profits, before DPAC/VOBA amortization and discounted at the earned rate, net of investment charges/ expenses. The outcome of this calculation is compared to outstanding DPAC/VOBA balances to give an indication of the extent to which the aggregate DPAC/VOBA is recoverable. However, it should be noted that actual DPAC/VOBA recoverability testing does not occur in aggregate but rather at a lower level of segmentation and hence accelerated amortization may be required from time to time on specific blocks or segments of business even though ample coverage exists in aggregate.

Table 21 shows that total life insurance DPAC/VOBA has a coverage ratio of 210%. All of the regions showed coverage ratios above 100%.

Table 21

 

DPAC recoverability

(amounts in EUR millions, pre tax)

   Americas     The
Netherlands
    United
Kingdom
    Asia     Central and
Eastern
Europe
    Other
European
Countries
    Total
2005
 

Adjusted PVFP

   20,882     4,614     5,294     1,432     474     67     32,763  

Gross DPAC

   10,270     756     4,100     380     72     11     15,588  

Coverage

   203 %   611 %   129 %   377 %   654 %   632 %   210 %

 

Embedded value 2005   27


Addendum 4: Exchange rates

The currency exchange rates used in this report are reflected below. The weighted average exchange rates are used for the amounts in the movement analysis whereas the closing exchange rates are used for the year–end 2005 and 2004 amounts.

Table 22

Exchange rates Currency

 

     

Abbreviation

   2005    2004
      Closing rate    Average rate    Closing rate    Average rate

Euro

   EUR    1.000    1.000    1.000    1.000

US Dollar

   USD    1.180    1.246    1.362    1.244

British Pound

   GBP    0.685    0.684    0.705    0.679

Canadian Dollar

   CAD    1.373    1.509    1.642    1.617

Polish Zloty

   PLN    3.860    3.860    3.860    3.860

Rin Min Bi Yuan

   CNY    9.520    10.100    11.273    11.273

Hungarian Forint

   HUF    252.870    248.020    245.970    251.830

New Taiwan Dollar

   NTD    38.690    39.760    43.315    41.690

Czech Republic Krona

   CZK    29.000    29.590    30.464    30.464

Slovak Koruna

   SKK    37.880    38.640    38.745    38.745

 

Embedded value 2005   28


Addendum 5: Methodology

Scope

Each division in each country unit calculates the embedded value life insurance (EVLI) for the relevant product segments within the life insurance entities (life business) based on detailed actuarial calculations:

 

  ¨   Traditional life (TL)

 

  ¨   Life for account of policyholders (LAP)

 

  ¨   Fixed annuities (FA)

 

  ¨   Variable annuities (VA)

 

  ¨   Institutional guaranteed products (IGP)

 

  ¨   Fee business (Fee)

 

  ¨   Reinsurance (Reins)

 

  ¨   Accident and health (A&H)7

All business not included in the life entities, such as general insurance, A&H in non-life entities, mutual funds and banking products is referred to as other activities8. All business in non-life entities is valued at IFRS book value.

The sum of the embedded value life insurance per region and the value of the other activities is referred to as total embedded value per region.

The adjustments in respect of the holding activities comprise two parts:

 

    Debt, capital securities and other net liabilities included at their market values9;

 

    The present value of future after tax holding expenses, representing the expenses incurred by the group staff departments which are not allocated to the country units.

The sum of the total embedded value per region and the adjustment in respect of the holding activities represents the total embedded value (TEV).

The total embedded value less the value of the preferred share capital represents the total embedded value attributable to common shareholders. The preferred share capital is valued by discounting the expected dividends at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This amount is then reduced by 5% to represent a liquidity discount adjustment.

Methodology and definitions

Calculation of the embedded value life insurance requires a considerable number of assumptions to be set with respect to both expected operational and economic developments. The principles developed by

 


7 The A&H business in the life entities is modelled in detail and included in the embedded value life insurance, while the A&H business in the non-life entities is generally categorized as ‘other activities’.
8 The exception to this rule is business in non-life companies that is either identical to business written in the life business companies, or inseparable from it. E.g. in the US, a detailed actuarial calculation for the 401(k) retirement plan business that invests in mutual funds is included in the embedded value life insurance even though it is written through a non-life company. Basically, business in mutual fund companies arising from investment of assets from life insurance business Is included in the EVLI, whereas pure retail mutual fund business is included in ‘other activities’.
9 Prior to 2005 reporting, these items were included at their book values.

 

Embedded value 2005   29


AEGON to calculate its embedded value life insurance and value of new business are intended to reflect industry best practices for the purpose of supplementary reporting.

Embedded value life insurance

The embedded value life insurance only reflects the value that arises from current business (assuming a closed book) and therefore does not include a value for future new business.

The embedded value life insurance is built up from the following components:

 

EVLI  

=

+

  

Free surplus

Required surplus

  }    Adjusted net worth
 

+

  

Present value of future profits

Cost of capital

  }    Value of in-force life business

The EVLI is defined as the adjusted net worth (ANW) plus value of in-force life business (ViF)10.

ANW represents the market value of available assets in excess of liabilities determined on the local regulatory basis. ANW is split between required surplus and free surplus. Required surplus represents assets required to be present in the company to support the in-force life business (solvency requirement). Assets backing required surplus are marked-to-market. Free surplus represents assets available at the valuation date that are not required to support the in-force life business, and is the excess of assets over the sum of the liabilities (on the regulatory basis) and the required surplus. Assets backing free surplus are marked-to-market. Refer to table 5 for a reconciliation of the total capital base to ANW.

The ViF equals the present value of future profits (PVFP) less the cost of capital (CoC). The PVFP represents the present value of future after tax regulatory profits projected to emerge from business in the current life insurance portfolio discounted at the discount rate. The discount rate both reflects the time value of money and a risk margin. The CoC originates from the fact that solvency requirements will constrain distributions to shareholders while earning a net return less than the discount rate.

The cost of capital depends on the level of required surplus and affects the EVLI. The higher the required surplus, the greater the CoC and this switch from free surplus to required surplus results in a lower EVLI. The AEGON internal requirement is based on the higher of the local minimum regulatory requirements and 165% of the Standard and Poors’ local capital adequacy models, plus any additional internally imposed requirements, if applicable (internal basis). The exception is AEGON’s partnership in France, La Mondiale Participations, which is managed on local regulatory requirements, which then also forms the basis for the solvency requirements for that business throughout this report.

For comparison purposes, addendum 2 includes the embedded value components and the embedded value life insurance per country unit on the regulatory surplus basis.

Movement analysis including new business

A movement analysis illustrates the change in embedded value life insurance from one reporting period to the next. One of the components of the movement analysis is the value of new business (VNB). The VNB is a measure of the value added by production sold within the last reporting period. It is calculated at the end of the reporting period and based on the beginning of year economic assumptions and assumptions

 


10 Alternatively, the sum of the required surplus and present value of future profits less the cost of capital is also known as the present value of distributable earnings (PVDE). The value of the free surplus plus the PVDE then equals the embedded value life insurance.

 

Embedded value 2005   30


outside of management control, and end of year operating assumptions. The change to end of year economic assumptions is reflected under ‘change in economic assumptions’, while the difference between the assumed and actual investment experience is reflected in the ‘variance from long-term investment return’.

Where pre-tax numbers are presented, the calculations are carried out on an after tax basis and the profits are then grossed up for the relevant corporate tax rate.

Operating assumptions

Operating assumptions are best estimate assumptions and based on historical data where available. The assumptions fall into two categories: operating assumptions involving policyholder behavior and operating assumptions involving company policies, strategies and operations. All assumptions reflect a going concern basis.

Operating assumptions involving policyholder behavior

Operating assumptions involving policyholder behavior, such as premium contributions, mortality, morbidity and persistency, reflect the company’s ‘best estimate’ of future experience and are based on the historical and current experience of the company. These assumptions are adjusted to reflect known changes in the environment and identifiable trends. If historical data is insufficient to provide a reliable basis to develop assumptions, the company’s best judgment is used taking into consideration the company’s pricing and/or reserving assumptions and the experience of other companies with comparable products, markets and operating procedures.

Operating assumptions involving company policies, strategies and operations

Operating assumptions involving company policies, strategies and operations, such as profit sharing/bonus rates and reinsurance and investment/reinvestment strategies reflect contractual requirements as well as the most current policies, strategies and operations.

Consistent with the close matching approach implemented in 2004, the estate of Guardian Assurance in AEGON UK has been valued assuming its distribution as terminal bonus.

Allowances for tax reflect best estimates of future taxes according to local taxation rules, taking into account current ‘substantially enacted’ legislation and tax rates. This best estimate of future taxes initially assumes no future new business (i.e. is on a closed book basis) and includes both cash and accrual adjustments (e.g., deferred taxes). The tax attributed to new business written in the year is generally determined by considering the marginal impact of that new business on the existing business tax position (allowing for any losses carried forward). For the UK, the tax attributable to new business assumes that existing business profits are first made available to relieve new business strains, with any balance of such profits then being used to relieve carried forward losses. The UK new business strains and current tax position of the fund thus generate a negative tax variance, which has been included under ‘in-force variance’ in the movement analysis in section 4.2.

Expenses are based on current experience. Expenses that can clearly be demonstrated as non-recurring are identified and omitted from maintenance or acquisition costs and excluded from the determination of the appropriate unit expense assumptions. Expenses are subject to inflation adjustments into the future11. Holding expenses reflect the present value of expected future expenses incurred by the holding companies (present value holding expenses). These expenses are assumed to run off in line with the in-force life business.

The target investment mix assumed does not vary with different scenarios. Where the current investment mix is different from the target, the target mix is modeled to be reached over a period of time.

 


11 Refer to addendum 6 for the inflation assumptions.

 

Embedded value 2005   31


Operating assumptions are reviewed each year and a determination is made as to whether they should be changed.

Economic assumptions

Economic assumptions used in the embedded value are based on observable market data and projections of future trends. These assumptions are approved by the Executive Board.

Risk discount rate

The discount rates used in embedded value reflect AEGON’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC). From the WACC, we derive an AEGON risk margin as the difference between the WACC and weighted current risk free rates across the major country units. The WACC is calculated using a combination of a group level risk free interest rate, an equity risk premium, an assessment of company risk (beta) and an allowance for the gearing impact of debt financing. Rigid adherence to such an approach can result in inappropriate volatility in the WACC and the derived AEGON risk margin, for example as a result of short-term movements in beta. In 2004 the AEGON risk margin was 3.2%. The results from the 2005 calculation were compared against this rate of 3.2% and it was concluded that 3.2% continued to be an appropriate allowance for an AEGON group wide risk margin.

Discount rates are then calculated at a country unit level to reflect the AEGON risk margin and the country risk free rate assumption. Where risk free rates are projected to move from current market rates to an ultimate long-term rate, the risk margin is applied to a blended rate to arrive at a single risk discount rate. No adjustment to discount rates is made among the three major country units to reflect differences in business risk either at country level or business unit/product level. However, specific risk factors within each of these three countries will be reflected in the reserves set at a local level. An allowance for specific risk factors in the new/smaller country units is included in the discount rates where appropriate.

Equity return

The method used to derive projected equity returns is similar to that used to derive risk discount rates.

Risk free fixed interest returns

Risk free fixed interest returns correspond to the government bond yield for ten-year fixed interest instruments. These returns are used to derive risk discount rates and also underlie projections of returns on reinvestments, which will vary by the duration and credit characteristics of the assumed investment policy. In the Americas and Taiwan, the assumed returns grade from the current market levels to the long-term assumptions over a period of approximately five years (and in the Eurozone, over a period of approximately two years).

Embedded options and guarantees

Insurance policies can have options and guarantees that are embedded in the product design (embedded options and guarantees). These embedded options and guarantees include minimum guaranteed death/income benefits, minimum interest guarantees (floors), minimum (cash) surrender values, annuity options, etc.

An explicit allowance for the time value of all material embedded options and guarantees has been included by assessing their impact on embedded value life insurance using mostly stochastic modeling. The methodology and assumptions used to assess this for the two regions where the impact on the EVLI is material are described in addendum 6. In total, the time value of options and guarantees included in the ELVI for the Group was EUR 730 million after tax.

Required capital

The solvency requirement underlying the cost of capital allowance in the embedded value is the internal surplus requirement on which the business is managed. This requirement is based on the more stringent of the local regulatory requirement and 165% of the Standard and Poors’ local capital adequacy models

 

Embedded value 2005   32


plus any additional internally imposed requirements, if applicable. The exception is AEGON’s partnership in France, La Mondiale Participations, which is managed on local regulatory requirements. This then forms the basis for the solvency requirements for that business throughout this report.

In addition, embedded value figures calculated using the regulatory surplus requirement are shown in table 20, in addendum 2.

 

Embedded value 2005   33


Addendum 6: Detailed economic assumptions

Table 23

 

Economic assumptions 2005

   Discount
rate
    Equity
returns
    Property
returns
   

Risk free fixed interest

returns (A)

   Net credit spread on fixed
interest (B)
   Inflation
rate
    Tax
rate
 
         Start     Ultimate     Grading
period
(years)
   Start    Ultimate    Grading
period
(years)
    

Americas

                          

United States

   8.00 %   8.00 %   6.50 %   4.39 %   5.25 %   5    86    118    2    2.0 %   35.0 %

Canada

   7.50 %   7.50 %   —       4.00 %   4.50 %   10    55    65    2    2.0 %   34.0 %

The Netherlands

   6.70 %   6.70 %   6.50 %   3.30 %   3.70 %   5    29    43    5    2.0 %   30.0 %

United Kingdom

   7.20 %   7.20 %   7.20 %   4.00 %   4.00 %      52    52       2.0 %   30.0 %

Asia

                          

China

   10 %   10 %   —       3.30 %   4.10 %   5    60    60       3.0 %   33.0 %

Taiwan

   8 %   8.00 %   —       2.80 %   3.70 %   5    70    97    5    2.0 %   25.0 %

Central and Eastern Europe

                          

Czech Republic

   9.20 %   9.20 %   —       4.00 %   4.00 %               2.0 %   24.0 %

Hungary

   9.20 %   9.20 %   9.20 %   6.00 %   6.00 %      25    25       3.0 %   16.0 %

Poland

   9.20 %   9.20 %   —       5.00 %   5.00 %      50    50       2.0 %   19.0 %

Slovakia

   9.20 %   9.20 %   —       4.00 %   4.00 %               3.0 %   19.0 %

Other European Countries

                          

France

   6.70 %   6.70 %   6.50 %   3.30 %   3.70 %   5    30    30       2.0 %   34.4 %

Spain

   6.70 %   6.70 %   6.50 %   3.30 %   3.70 %   5    30    30       2.0 %   35.0 %
                          

Economic assumptions 2004

   Discount
rate
    Equity
returns
    Property
returns
   

Risk free fixed interest

returns (A)

   Net credit spread on fixed
interest (B)
   Inflation
rate
    Tax
rate
 
         Start     Ultimate     Grading
period
(years)
   Start    Ultimate    Grading
period
(years)
    

Americas

                          

United States

   8.00 %   8.00 %   6.50 %   4.27 %   5.25 %   5    74    115    2    2.0 %   35.0 %

Canada

   8.00 %   8.00 %   —       4.30 %   5.25 %   10    65    65       2.0 %   34.3 %

The Netherlands

   7.20 %   7.20 %   6.50 %   3.75 %   4.25 %   2    38    38       2.0 %   34.5 %

United Kingdom

   7.80 %   7.80 %   7.80 %   4.60 %   4.60 %      53    53       2.0 %   30.0 %

Asia

                          

China

   —       —       —       —       —                        

Taiwan

   8 %   8.00 %   —       3.00 %   4.00 %   5    85    85       2.0 %   25.0 %

Central and Eastern Europe

                          

Czech Republic

   —       —       —       —       —                        

Hungary

   9.00 %   9.00 %   9.00 %   6.00 %   6.00 %      55    55       3.0 %   16.0 %

Poland

   —       —       —       —       —                        

Slovakia

   —       —       —       —       —                        

Other European Countries

                          

France

   —       —       —       —       —                        

Spain

   7.20 %   7.20 %   6.50 %   3.75 %   4.25 %   2    35    35       2.0 %   35.0 %

(A) Risk free fixed interest returns correspond to the 10-year government bond yield.
(B) Average net credit spread in basis points (bps) of all corporate bonds, mortgages, loans, etc. over the risk free fixed interest returns.

 

Embedded value 2005   34


Americas

Stochastic modeling methodology

The embedded value is taken as the average of the values calculated over a range of stochastic scenarios. The risk discount rate used in each scenario is described in table 4.

Scenarios for general account products

 

¨   Treasury yield curve scenarios

These scenarios model the US treasury yield curve. The underlying dynamics of the scenario generator are lognormal, with mean reversion to the assumed interest rate levels as described in table 4 as well as further adjustments in the event that the rates become too extreme. A short maturity (90-day) and long maturity (10-year) rate are projected. For both rates a quarterly volatility, a mean reversion target, and a mean reversion factor are specified, as well as a correlation between the movements of the two projected rates. Volatilities (standard deviations) are based on historical data. The net credit spreads are not assumed to vary by scenario.

Table 24

Stochastic modeling mean reversion targets

 

Maturity

   Reversion
target
    Quarterly
yield
volatility
 

90-day

   3.50 %   16 %

10-year

   5.25 %   8 %

 

¨   Equity scenarios

Common stock and preferred stock account for less than 2% of the total AEGON USA general account assets. Therefore, these are not modeled separately.

Scenarios for separate account products

These scenarios cover various classes of equities and fixed income investments (bonds, money markets) as benchmarks for separate account funds. The underlying dynamics of the generator are lognormal, with inputs of expected returns and volatilities for each fund class as well as correlations between fund classes. Volatilities and correlations between funds are based on historical data. The current economic environment and forward-looking assumptions as per the dividend discount model were used to determine expected annual returns.

Within the stochastic scenarios, non-economic assumptions such as lapses are modeled dynamically. No management behavior is modeled.

Table 25

Stochastic modeling assumptions

 

      Effective annualized
long-term gross
return
    Annual price
volatility (A)
 

Equity

   8.00 %   16.00 %

Convertible bonds

   7.20 %   11.40 %

Lehman aggregate bonds

   5.75 %   3.50 %

Money market

   3.50 %   0.20 %

(A) Volatilities in this table are with respect to volatilities of returns.

 

Embedded value 2005   35


Table 26

 

Correlation matrix (A)

   Equity    Convertible
bonds
   Lehman
aggregate
bonds
   Money
market

Equity

   1.00    0.86    0.22    -0.16

Convertible bonds

   0.86    1.00    0.03    -0.11

Lehman aggregate bonds

   0.22    0.03    1.00    0.31

Money market

   -0.16    -0.11    0.31    1.00

(A) Correlations in this table are with respect to correlations of returns.

The Netherlands

Stochastic modeling methodology

The allowance in embedded value for the minimum interest guarantees in the life insurance portfolio (traditional business, unit-linked portfolios and separate account contracts) is calculated stochastically, where applicable. The impact of the financial options is calculated using the average values of the future after-tax shortfalls over a range of stochastic scenarios, discounted using the risk discount rate described in table 4.

Within the stochastic scenarios non-economic assumptions are based on best estimates. No management behavior is modeled.

Scenarios for general account products

Profit sharing is entirely driven by an externally defined basket of government bonds. Therefore, no equity return or correlation assumptions are required to assess the exposure to the financial options and guarantees embedded in the traditional products.

At year-end 2005, the book yield on this basket equaled 3.21%. To assess the value of the minimum guarantees, a mean reversion target return of 3.65% is assumed for this benchmark. Projected interest rate scenarios are specified taking into account correlation between successive years, the mean reversion target and volatility. The model volatility is related to the implied volatility of the 7-year yield as an approximation of the actual volatility of the profit-sharing benchmark.

Table 27

Stochastic modeling mean reversion targets

 

      Reversion
target
    Annual yield
volatility
 

Profit-sharing rate

   3.65 %   14.2 %

Scenarios for unit-linked and separate account pension products

The unit-linked portfolio and separate account pension contracts are backed by a mix of equities and fixed income investments. The underlying dynamics of the scenario generators are lognormal, with inputs of expected returns and volatilities as well as the correlation matrix. The tables that follow include the mix of the underlying assets, the expected returns, volatilities per asset class and the assumed correlations for each of the unit-linked and separate account products. Volatilities and correlations between asset classes are based on historical data.

 

Embedded value 2005   36


Table 28

 

Stochastic modeling unit-linked portfolio

AEGON Mix Fund

   Distribution    Expected return    Annual price volatility
      Start     Ultimate     Grading
period
   Start     Ultimate     Grading
period

Equity fund

   40%    6.70 %   6.70 %      15.20 %   17.00 %   5

Fixed income fund

   55%    2.36 %   3.60 %   6    3.80 %   3.90 %   5

Property fund

     5%    6.70 %   6.70 %      15.90 %   16.00 %   5

Mix fund (A)

      4.31 %   4.99 %   6    6.30 %   7.00 %   5

(A) The AEGON Mix fund is a combination of 40% equity fund, 5% property fund and 55% fixed income fund.

Table 29

 

Stochastic modeling unit-linked portfolio

Correlation matrix (A)

   Equity    Fixed income    Property
   Start    Ultimate    Grading
period
   Start    Ultimate    Grading
period
   Start    Ultimate    Grading
period

Equity

   1.0    1.0       -0.3    -0.3       0.5    0.6    5

Fixed income

   -0.3    -0.3       1.0    1.0       0.1    0.0    5

Property

   0.5    0.6    5    0.1    0.0    5    1.0    1.0   

(A) Correlations in this table are with respect to correlations of returns.

Table 30

 

     Distribution    Annual Price Volatility

Stochastic modeling separate account pensions

      Start     Ultimate     Grading
period

Equity (A)

   21%    15.20 %   17.00 %   5

Fixed income (A)

   77%    5.10 %   5.30 %   5

Property (A)

     2%    15.90 %   16.00 %   5

(A) The expected returns used in stochastic modeling for these asset classes are the same as in table 23.

Table 31

Stochastic modeling separate account pensions

Correlation matrix (A)

   Equity    Bonds    Property
   Start    Ultimate    Grading
period
   Start    Ultimate    Grading
period
   Start    Ultimate    Grading
period

Equity

   1.0    1.0       -0.3    -0.3       0.5    0.6    5

Bonds

   -0.3    -0.3       1.0    1.0       0.1    0.0    5

Property

   0.5    0.6    5    0.1    0.0    5    1.0    1.0   

(A) Correlations in this table are with respect to correlations of returns.

 

Embedded value 2005   37


Glossary and abbreviations

Glossary

 

Base case    The EVLI, TEV and VNB calculated under the set of assumptions and methodology outlined in addendum 5 Methodology. Sensitivity tests reflecting a deviation on the assumptions are presented in comparison to the base case.
Closed book    An assumption that the portfolio will run off after the valuation date and is not expected to grow with future new business.
Cost of capital    The cost related to having to hold solvency capital that will constrain distributions to shareholders. The cost originates from the fact that the net return earned on the assets backing this capital is lower than the discount rate.
DAP book value    Net asset value based on generally accepted Dutch accounting principles.
Discount rate    The rate at which future cash flows are discounted back to the valuation date.
Embedded options and guarantees    Can apply to both assets and liabilities of AEGON. On assets, refers to features such as the ability to exercise an option to call, put, prepay or convert an asset. On liabilities, refers to features such as minimum guaranteed death/income benefits, minimum interest guarantees (floors), minimum (cash) surrender values, annuity options, etc.
Embedded value life insurance    The present value of the existing life insurance business at the valuation date and excluding any value attributable to future new business.
Embedded value life insurance movement    The change in embedded value life insurance from one reporting year to another.
Embedded value operating margin    Return on embedded value life insurance from operating activities. Defined as embedded value operating return divided by beginning of year embedded value life insurance (after any beginning of year adjustments) on a constant currency basis.
Embedded value operating return    Embedded value life insurance earnings from operating activities. Defined as the value of new business plus in-force performance.
Embedded value total margin    Return on embedded value life insurance from all sources. Defined as embedded value total return divided by beginning of year embedded value (after any beginning of year adjustments) in euros.
Embedded value total return    Embedded value life insurance earnings from all sources, not including capital movements. Defined as embedded value operating return plus the variance from long-term investment return, changes in economic assumptions, currency exchange differences and miscellaneous impacts.
European Embedded Value Principles    A consistent framework for the calculation and reporting of embedded value published in May 2004 by the CFO Forum, a group representing the Chief Financial Officers of major European insurers.

 

Embedded value 2005   38


Free surplus    Excess of assets available at the valuation date over capital needed to support the business (liabilities and required surplus).
Going concern basis    Business outlook assumption that expects the business to behave under normal conditions but excluding the value generated by future new business.
Gross value of new business    The value of new business, grossed-up at the relevant corporate tax rate, before allowance for the cost of capital.
In-force business    Contracts and policies that are in effect as at the valuation date.
In-force performance    Defined as unwinding discount rate plus current-year experience variance from non-economic assumptions within management control plus change in operating assumptions.
Internal rate of return    The discount rate at which the present value of the distributable earnings from new business equals the investment in new business, i.e. the projected return on the initial investment in new business.
Internal surplus basis    The more stringent of local regulatory solvency requirements and 165% of the Standard and Poors’ (S&P) solvency requirements, plus any additional internally imposed requirements, if applicable.
International Financial Reporting Standards    A set of accounting standards developed by the International Accounting Standards Board. All publicly listed companies in the European Union are required to prepare their financial statements in conformity with IFRS beginning January 1, 2005.
IFRS book value    Net asset value based on international financial reporting standards.
Mark-to-market    The adjustment of the asset value from regulatory value to market value.
Movement analysis    An explanation of the change in embedded value life insurance from one reporting period to the next.
Net asset spreads    Excess of net investment return over the risk free rate.
Persistency    The rate at which policies and contracts remain in-force.
Present value of distributable earnings    The discounted value of expected future distributable earnings as at the valuation date at the discount rate.
Present value of new business premiums    The discounted value of modeled premiums on the block of business sold in the latest reporting year.
Present value of future profits    The present value of future after tax regulatory profits projected to emerge from business in the current life insurance portfolio, discounted at the embedded value discount rate.

 

Embedded value 2005   39


Reporting segment    The product type categories of business on which AEGON reports externally for IFRS and EVLI/TEV.
Required surplus    The capital that AEGON is required to hold in order to satisfy local regulatory solvency requirements or to demonstrate financial strength (via ratings from agencies such as Standard & Poors’ and Moody’s).
Reserve base    Methodology or principle basis to calculate the level of reserves.
Total embedded value    The sum of the embedded value life insurance and the value of the other activities and holding activities.
Time value of money    The expected value of money at a certain valuation date.
Unwind of discount    Expected return on the beginning of year EVLI.
Value of new business    The present value of the future distributable earnings on the block of business sold in the latest reporting year. Value of new business is calculated using beginning of year economic assumptions and assumptions outside of management control, and end of year operating assumptions.
Value of in-force    The present value of the expected future profits emerging from the business in-force as of the valuation date minus the cost of capital.
Variance analysis    Explanation of the difference between actual and expected experience related to assumptions.

 

Embedded value 2005   40


Abbreviations

 

A&H    Accident & health
ANW    Adjusted net worth
APE    Annualized premium equivalent
BoY    Beginning of year
CoC    Cost of capital
DPAC    Deferred policy acquisition costs
DAP    Dutch accounting principles
EEV    European Embedded Value
EoY    End of year
EVLI    Embedded value life insurance
FA    Fixed annuities
Fee    Fee business
FS    Free surplus
IFRS    International financial reporting standards
IGP    Institutional guaranteed products
IRR    Internal rate of return
LAP    Life for account of policyholders
PVDE    Present value of distributable earnings
PVFP    Present value of future profits
PVNBP    Present value of new business premiums
RS    Required surplus
TEV    Total embedded value
TL    Traditional life
VA    Variable annuities
ViF    Value of in-force business
VNB    Value of new business
VOBA    Value of business acquired

CONTACT INFORMATION

Group Corporate Affairs & Investor Relations

 

     The Hague, the Netherlands  

Baltimore, the United States

Analysts & investors

   +31(0)70 344 83 05   +1 877 548 9668 (toll free) / +1 410 576 45 77

Media

   +31(0)70 344 83 44   +1 410 576 45 26

E-mail

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Website

   www.aegon.com

 

Embedded value 2005   41


DISCLAIMERS

Cautionary note regarding Regulation G (non-GAAP measure)

This press release includes a non-GAAP financial measure. Embedded value is not based on IFRS, which are used to prepare and report AEGON’s 2005 financial statements and should not be viewed as a substitute for IFRS financial measures. In the 2005 Embedded Value report available on www.aegon.com, the embedded value life insurance and the total embedded value are reconciled to shareholders’ equity of EUR 19.3 billion as reported in AEGON’s annual accounts over the year 2005. AEGON believes the non-GAAP measure shown herein, together with the GAAP information, provides a meaningful measure for the investing public to evaluate AEGON’s business relative to the businesses of our peers.

Cautionary note regarding the use of local currencies and constant currency exchange rates

This press release contains certain information about our results and financial condition in USD for Americas and GBP for the United Kingdom, because those businesses operate and are managed primarily in those currencies. Certain comparative information presented on a constant currency basis eliminates the effects of changes in currency exchange rates. None of this information is a substitute for or superior to financial information about us presented in euro, which is the currency of our primary financial statements.

Cautionary note regarding forward looking statements

The statements contained in this press release that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as ‘believe’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’, ‘may’, ‘expect’, ‘anticipate’, ‘predict’, ‘project’, ‘counting on’, ‘plan’, ‘continue’, ‘want’, ‘forecast’, ‘should’, ‘would’, ‘is confident’ and ‘will’ and similar expressions as they relate to us are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates.

 

¨   All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations, including, but not limited to, the following:

 

¨   Changes in general economic conditions, particularly in the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom;

 

¨   Changes in the performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, including:

 

    The frequency and severity of defaults by issuers in our fixed income investment portfolios; and

 

    The effects of corporate bankruptcies and/or accounting restatements on the financial markets and the resulting decline in value of equity and debt securities we hold;

 

¨   The frequency and severity of insured loss events;

 

¨   Changes affecting mortality, morbidity and other factors that may affect the profitability of our insurance products;

 

¨   Changes affecting interest rate levels and continuing low interest rate levels and rapidly changing interest rate levels;

 

¨   Changes affecting currency exchange rates, including the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP exchange rates;

 

¨   Increasing levels of competition in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and emerging markets;

 

¨   Changes in laws and regulations, particularly those affecting our operations, the products we sell and the attractiveness of certain products to our consumers;

 

¨   Regulatory changes relating to the insurance industry in the jurisdictions in which we operate;

 

¨   Acts of God, acts of terrorism, acts of war and pandemics;

 

¨   Changes in the policies of central banks and/or governments;

 

¨   Litigation or regulatory action that could require us to pay significant damages or change the way we do business;

 

¨   Customer responsiveness to both new products and distribution channels;

 

¨   Competitive, legal, regulatory, or tax changes that affect the distribution cost of or demand for our products;

 

¨   Our failure to achieve anticipated levels of earnings or operational efficiencies as well as other cost saving initiatives;

 

¨   The impact on our reported financial results and financial condition as a result of our adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards.