EX-99.1 2 dex991.htm PRESS RELEASE Press Release
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EMBEDDED VALUE 2004


Table of contents

 

1.

       Highlights    1
     1.1        Introduction    1
     1.2        Overview of embedded value life insurance and total embedded value    3
     1.3        New business    4

2.

       Economic assumptions    6
     2.1        Economic assumptions    6

3.

       Reconciliation of total capital base to adjusted net worth    7

4.

       Outcome    9
     4.1        Value components    9
     4.2        Movement analysis of embedded value life insurance    10

5.

       Sensitivities    15
     5.1        Embedded value life insurance sensitivity    15
     5.2        Value of new business sensitivity    16

6.

       Review statement    17

Addendum 1: Movement analysis based on the internal surplus requirement per country unit and product segment

   18
     AEGON Group    18
     Americas    19
     The Netherlands    20
     United Kingdom    21
     Hungary    22
     Spain    23
     Taiwan    24

Addendum 2: Outcome based on the regulatory surplus requirement

   25

Addendum 3: Recoverability of DPAC

   26

Addendum 4: Exchange rates

   28

Addendum 5: Methodology

   29
     Scope    29
     Methodology and definitions    29
     Operating assumptions    31
     Economic assumptions    32
     Embedded options and guarantees    32
     Required Capital    32

Glossary and abbreviations

   36
     Glossary    36
     Abbreviations    39

Disclaimer

   40


1. Highlights

 

 

1.1 Introduction

 

The European Embedded Value (EEV) Principles were published in May 2004 by the CFO Forum, a group representing the Chief Financial Officers of major European insurers. The EEV Principles provide a consistent framework for the calculation and reporting of embedded value.

 

AEGON has adopted the EEV Principles for the year-end 2004 embedded value results. In all material respects, the embedded value life insurance (EVLI) produced under the EEV Principles is consistent with that under AEGON principles used in 2003. The main area of change relates to refinements in the quantification of options and guarantees in the Netherlands and Spain.

 

AEGON has long used embedded value as a management tool for its life insurance operations. AEGON’s management believes that embedded value, in conjunction with other publicly disclosed financial information, can provide valuable additional information for investors and shareholders to assess a reasonable range of values inherent in the business. The disclosure includes sensitivity analyses reflecting certain risks and drivers of the realization of embedded value.

 

Embedded value life insurance is an estimate of the economic value of a company’s existing life insurance business and is to a large extent actuarially determined. Embedded value life insurance should not be viewed as a substitute for AEGON’s primary financial statements.

 

Embedded value life insurance represents the contributed capital invested in our life operations, available surplus or adjusted net worth (ANW), and the value of in-force life business (VIF). The latter equals the present value of future expected profits arising from the existing book of life insurance business including new business sold in the reporting period less the cost of capital. Future new business that is sold after the valuation date is not reflected in this value, although certain assumptions such as unit costs reflect a going concern basis.

 

Total embedded value (TEV) is an additional measure used by management in considering shareholders’ interest in the value of the existing business. TEV represents the sum of the embedded value life insurance, the value of all other business that is not included in EVLI (other activities) and the adjustments in respect of holding companies (holding activities). The holding activities largely represent the DAP book value of AEGON’s debt, capital securities and other net liabilities. DAP measures have been used as this is the accounting basis on which AEGON’s primary 2004 financial statements are based.

 

From January 1, 2005, all publicly listed companies in the European Union – including AEGON - are required to prepare their financial statements in conformity with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). EVLI is a function of future local regulatory distributable earnings, and hence is not impacted by the change to IFRS accounting except in the Netherlands operations where the local regulatory environment will also change with IFRS. AEGON has not yet computed the impact of this change, but generally we expect this to be a fairly small adjustment as the only impact will be some modest timing differences in the distributable earnings pattern. The value of other activities will change from being carried at DAP equity to being carried at IFRS equity beginning with the 2005 EV disclosure. While many items will change in this category, the only expected material adjustment will come from the adjustment from DAP to IFRS equity of the US Pension Plan which will reduce other activities’ carrying value by approximately EUR 0.7 billion after tax (as of year-end 2004) consistent with the fresh-start approach utilized in the IFRS opening balance sheet as of January 1, 2004.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

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Embedded value life insurance calculations use local regulatory accounting principles rather than company specific accounting principles (e.g. DAP) as these regulatory requirements determine when profits can be distributed to shareholders. As the base case this year, EVLI has been prepared using required capital on the internal surplus basis. We have adopted this presentation as this is how the business is managed and we believe it to be consistent with EEV. This is a change from last year where the base case was presented with required capital on a regulatory surplus basis and the internal surplus basis presented as an addendum to the report.

 

The methodology AEGON uses to calculate EVLI is described in addendum 5. This methodology is consistent with EEV Principles.

 

AEGON’s new operations in Slovakia and partnerships in China (AEGON – CNOOC Life Insurance Company), France (with La Mondiale Participations) and Spain (Mediterráneo Vida, a partnership with Caja de Ahorros del Mediterráneo) are included at DAP book value under other activities in the TEV figures. Indicative new business contributions from these businesses have been calculated separately but have not been included in EVLI or the 2004 VNB summaries in tables 9 and 10. These figures are presented in section 1.3, table 4.

 

Tillinghast has been engaged to review AEGON’s embedded value life insurance. The scope and conclusions of this review are presented in section 6.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

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1.2 Overview of embedded value life insurance and total embedded value

 

A high level overview of our embedded value life insurance and our total embedded value is contained in table 1. More details on these values, the principles and assumptions used plus the sensitivity of these values to changes in underlying assumptions are included in this document and should be read carefully in connection with the information presented below. All figures in this document are presented on an after tax basis unless otherwise stated.

 

Table 1

 

Embedded value internal surplus basis
(amounts in millions, after tax)
                  
Year-end
2004
USD
   Year-end
2003
USD
 
 
 
  %          Year-end
2004
EUR
 
 
 
  Year-end
2003
EUR
 
 
(A)
  %  
                 Life business                   
16,838    14,450     17     Adjusted net worth (ANW)    12,362     11,441     8  
2,175    1,047     108    

Free surplus (FS)

   1,597     829     93  
14,663    13,403     9    

Required surplus (RS)

   10,765     10,612     1  
14,212    11,734     21     Value of in-force life business (ViF)    10,434     9,291     12  
17,999    15,560     16    

Present value future profits (PVFP)

   13,214     12,320     7  
(3,787)    (3,825 )   (1 )  

Cost of capital (CoC)

   (2,780 )   (3,029 )   (8 )
31,050    26,184     19     Embedded value life insurance (EVLI)    22,796     20,731     10  
                 Other activities                   
1,452    1,775     (18 )   DAP book value    1,066     1,405     (24 )
32,502    27,959     16     Total embedded value before holding activities    23,862     22,137     8  
(8,549)    (8,203 )   4     Holding activities    (6,277 )   (6,495 )   (3 )
(8,278)    (7,997 )   4    

Debt, capital securities & other net liabilities

   (6,078 )   (6,331 )   (4 )
(271)    (206 )   31    

Present value holding expenses

   (199 )   (163 )   22  
23,953    19,756     21     Total embedded value (TEV)    17,585     15,642     12  
19,632    17,615     11     Shareholders’ equity    14,413     13,947  (B)   3  

(A)  The 2003 embedded value figures on an internal surplus basis were reported in an addendum in the 2003 embedded value report.

(B)  The 2003 numbers include an adjustment for the adoption of SOP 03-1 in AEGON USA which reduced Shareholders’ equity on a DAP basis by EUR 185 million.

 

The most important items impacting the change in embedded value life insurance during 2004 are1:

v Embedded value operating return2 of EUR 2.6 billion, consisting of in-force performance of EUR 2.1 billion and new business value of EUR 0.5 billion.
v The weakening of the US dollar against the euro. This had an adverse impact of EUR 0.9 billion on the EVLI. If the figures in this table had been prepared on a constant currency basis, the increases in EVLI and TEV would have been 14% and 17% respectively.
v A positive investment variance of EUR 0.8 billion.
v Net dividend payments from the life operations, which reduced the EVLI by EUR 0.8 billion.

 

 


1 For a more detailed analysis, please refer to section 4.2 ‘Movement analysis of embedded value life insurance’.

2 For embedded value operating margins on a constant currency basis, please refer to addendum 1: Movement analysis based on the internal surplus requirement per country unit and product segment.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 3 -    


The value of the other activities decreased mainly due to the inclusion of pension service contracts and permanent health business, formerly held at DAP Equity in other activities, in the 2004 EVLI and the write-off of goodwill in distribution companies in the Netherlands, which reduced other activities by EUR 0.1 billion. Currency exchange differences on the US prepaid pension costs on employee plans also reduced the value of other activities by EUR 0.1 billion.

 

The value of the holding activities increased (i.e. became less negative) mainly as a result of net capital distributions from life subsidiaries and participations and other (non-life) activities (EUR 0.6 billion) and lower debt values as a result of currency movements (EUR 0.3 billion), partially offset by cash dividend to shareholders (EUR (0.4) billion) and interest payments on holding debt (EUR (0.3) billion).

 

1.3 New business

 

The profitability of the policies sold in 2004 can be measured by the gross value of new business, which is equal to the value of new business (VNB) generated by the sale of new policies during the reporting year, grossed up at the relevant corporate tax rate and adjusted for the cost of carrying required capital on the internal surplus basis.

 

Table 2

 

Value new business internal surplus basis
(amounts in millions)
                        
2004
USD
 
 
     2003
USD
 
 
     %           2004
EUR
 
 
     2003
EUR
 
 
     %  
1,226        972        26      Gross value of new business (A)    986        860        15  
(404 )      (322 )      26      Tax    (325 )      (285 )      14  
(213 )      (277 )      (23 )    Cost of capital    (172 )      (245 )      (30 )
608        374        63      Value of new business    489        331        48  

(A)  Gross value of new business is derived by grossing up value of new business. Normalized tax rates used are: 35% for the US, 34.3% for Canada, 34.5% for the Netherlands, 30% for the United Kingdom, 16% for Hungary, 35% for Spain and 25% for Taiwan.

 

Table 3

 

Value new business internal surplus basis

(amounts in millions)

                  

    2004 USD

     2003
USD
     %           2004
EUR
     2003
EUR
     %

387

     251      54      Americas    311      222      40

36

     17      109      Netherlands    29      15      90

97

     47      107      United Kingdom    78      41      88

25

     14      77      Hungary    20      13      61

3

     2      63      Spain    2      2      48

60

     43      39      Taiwan    48      38      27

608

     374      63      Total    489      331      48

 

Value of new business increased 48% from 2003 (58% if calculated on a constant currency basis).3

 

 


3 For a more detailed analysis, please refer to section 4.2 ‘Movement analysis of embedded value life insurance’.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 4 -    


New business contributions from new operations

 

AEGON’s new operations in Slovakia and partnerships in China (AEGON – CNOOC Life Insurance Company), France (with La Mondiale Participations) and Spain (Mediterráneo Vida, a partnership with Caja de Ahorros del Mediterráneo) are included at DAP book value under other activities in the TEV figures. Indicative new business contributions from these businesses have been calculated separately but have not been included in EVLI or the 2004 VNB summaries in tables 9 and 10. These figures are presented in table 4.

 

Table 4

 

Other countries new business contributions

Regulatory surplus basis

(amounts in EUR millions)

   Total VNB    APE (A)   AEGON share in VNB     Total AEGON
share 2004

AEGON - CNOOC Life Insurance Company

   1    2     50 %   0

Mediterráneo Vida (partnership with CAM) (B)

   30    129     50 %   15

La Mondiale Participations

   10    200     20 % (C)   2

Slovakia

   1    3     100 %   1

Total

                    18

(A) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

(B) Mediterráneo Vida figures are only for 6 months as the venture started on July 1, 2004

(C) AEGON’s stake in La Mondiale Participations increased from 20% to 35% by the end of December 2004

 

The figures in table 4 were developed internally and are not in the scope of Tillinghast’s review. These VNBs were calculated using local solvency requirements for cost of capital. The underlying assumptions are consistent with those used for AEGON’s major country units as set out in table 5.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 5 -    


2. Economic assumptions

 

2.1 Economic assumptions

 

The economic assumptions for 2004 and 2003 are presented in table 5. The investment and inflation assumptions are set using a market based approach with rates that can vary by country unit and change from year to year taking into account available empirical data.

 

Table 5

 

Economic assumptions 2004    Americas (A)     Netherlands     United
Kingdom
    Hungary     Spain     Taiwan  

Discount rate

   8.00 %   7.20 %   7.80 %   9.00 %   7.20 %   8.00 %

Equity returns

   8.00 %   7.20 %   7.80 %   9.00 %   7.20 %   8.00 %

Property returns

   6.50 %   6.50 %   7.80 %   9.00 %   6.50 %   -    

Risk free fixed interest returns (B)

   4.27 %   3.75 %   4.60 %   6.00 %   3.75 %   3.00 %

Net credit spread on fixed interest (C)

   74     38     53     55     35     85  

Inflation rate

   2.00 %   2.00 %   2.00 %   3.00 %   2.00 %   2.00 %
Economic assumptions 2003    Americas (A)     Netherlands     United
Kingdom
    Hungary     Spain     Taiwan  

Discount rate

   8.00 %   8.00 %   8.00 %   9.00 %   8.00 %   8.00 %

Equity returns

   8.00 %   8.00 %   8.00 %   9.00 %   8.00 %   8.00 %

Property returns

   6.50 %   6.50 %   8.00 %   9.00 %   6.50 %   -    

Risk free fixed interest returns (D)

   4.30 %   4.50 %   4.80 %   6.00 %   4.50 %   2.50 %

Net credit spread on fixed interest (C)

   91     50     50     55     47     85  

Inflation rate

   2.00 %   2.00 %   2.00 %   3.00 %   2.00 %   2.00 %

(A)  The assumptions shown in the Americas column are for the US only. In 2004, the Canadian discount rate, equity return and risk free investment return assumptions were equal to the US assumptions. In 2003, these were all 50bps higher.

(B)  Risk free fixed interest returns correspond to the 10-year government bond yield. In the US, Canada, the Eurozone and Taiwan fixed interest returns grade from actual 2004 year-end levels, (i.e. 4.27%, 4.30%, 3.75% and 3.00%), to the long-term assumption based on AEGON’s long-term view of economic conditions (i.e. 5.25%, 5.25%, 4.25% and 4.00%) over a period of approximately 5 years (2 years for the Eurozone). The rate for Taiwan reflects its investment in both the local market and the US.

(C)  Average net credit spread in basis points (bps) of all corporate bonds, mortgages, loans, etc. over the ‘fixed interest returns’. Actual modeling is done per rating category or at a portfolio level. US net credit spreads grade from actual year-end levels to ultimate levels based on AEGON’s long-term view of economic conditions (i.e. ultimate average net credit spreads of 115 bps in 2004, 114 bps in 2003) over a 2-year period.

(D)  Risk free fixed interest returns correspond to the 10-year government bond yield. In the US and Taiwan, fixed interest returns grade from actual 2003 year-end levels, (i.e. 4.30% and 2.50%), to the long-term assumption based on AEGON’s long-term view of economic conditions (i.e. 5.25% and 3.50%) over a period of approximately 5 years. The rate for Taiwan reflects its investment in both the local market and the US.

 

All economic assumptions are reviewed each year and adjusted if appropriate. All assumptions fall within the scope of the independent review and reflect a going concern. The currency exchange rates are summarized in addendum 4: Exchange rates.

 

The main changes since 2003 have been a decrease in risk free fixed interest returns and corresponding discount rates for Canada, the Netherlands, the UK and Spain, an increase in risk free fixed interest returns for Taiwan and a reduction in credit spread for corporate bonds for the Netherlands and Spain.

 

Further detail on the setting of discount rates is described in addendum 5.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 6 -    


3. Reconciliation of total capital base to adjusted net worth

 

The embedded value life insurance is not based on generally accepted accounting principles in the Netherlands (DAP). Rather, it is based on local regulatory accounting. As the base case, EVLI has been prepared using required capital on the internal surplus basis. The following reconciliation presents the adjustments to the total capital base under DAP to arrive at the ANW that is based on local regulatory accounting rules.

 

Table 6

 

Reconciliation of total capital base to ANW    2004     2003     %     2003  

(amounts in EUR millions)

        

as adjusted (A)

         

as reported

 

Total capital

                        

AEGON shareholders’ equity (B)

   14,413     13,947     3     14,132  

Capital securities & subordinated debt

   3,466     2,377     46     2,377  

Senior debt related to insurance activities (C)

   2,270     3,288     (31 )   3,288  

  

 

 

 

Total capital base

   20,149     19,612     3     19,797  

Other net liabilities (D)

   342     666           666  

  

 

       

Total capital base and other net liabilities

   20,491     20,278     1     20,463  

Capital in units

                        

Americas

   13,312     13,849     (4 )   14,034  

Netherlands

   3,436     2,865     20     2,865  

United Kingdom

   3,151     3,083     2     3,083  

Hungary

   182     237     (23 )   237  

Spain

   190     145     31     145  

Taiwan

   164     52     213     52  

Other

   57     48     18     48  

  

 

       

Total

   20,491     20,278     1     20,463  

Allocated to

                        

Life subsidiaries

   19,425     18,873     3     19,058  

Other activities

   1,066     1,405     (24 )   1,405  

  

 

       

Total

   20,491     20,278     1     20,463  

Reconciliation capital in life subsidiaries to adjusted net worth

                        

Capital in life subsidiaries

   19,425     18,873     3     19,058  

Adjustments to local equity

   (7,063 )   (7,432 )   (5 )   (7,618 )

  

 

       

Adjusted net worth (ANW)

   12,362     11,441     8     11,441  

(A)  2003 DAP shareholders’ equity in the Americas has been adjusted for the adoption of SOP 03-1 in AEGON USA

(B)  Including the preferred share capital (2004: EUR 2,109 mln)

(C)  Long-term liabilities (of which related to insurance activities): EUR 4,276 mln (EUR 2,270 mln) in 2004 and EUR 4,692 mln (EUR 3,288 mln) in 2003.

(D)  Carried at the holding companies.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 7 -    


The capital base is largely invested in the life subsidiaries. The remaining capital allocated to other activities is included at DAP book value. In the reconciliation, the capital allocated to life subsidiaries is adjusted to local regulatory accounting. The largest part of the adjustment relates to the non-admissibility on a regulatory basis of DPAC/VOBA of the modeled life business4. The Netherlands’ life insurance DPAC (EUR 0.6 billion after tax) is not eliminated, as it is an admissible asset under Dutch regulatory accounting. The after tax impact of the elimination of inadmissible DPAC/VOBA relating to the modeled life business equals EUR (8.0) billion. The balance of the adjustments, EUR 0.9 billion, is mainly explained by the impact of the differing reserve and asset valuation bases and the marking-to-market of the assets backing surplus for the EVLI calculation.

 

The differences between embedded value and the accounting treatment of DPAC are discussed in addendum 3.

 


4  The non-admissibility of certain assets on a local basis simultaneously decreases equity while increasing future profits as the margins that are available to amortize these intangible assets on a DAP basis go straight to the bottom-line under regulatory accounting. In other words, the decrease in equity when going from DAP to the local basis is largely offset by an increase in the value of the in-force business.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 8 -    


4. Outcome

 

This section presents the EVLI and TEV as of December 31, 2004. All profits are in millions of euro and based on local regulatory accounting net of reinsurance and after tax. The level of required surplus is based on internal surplus requirements.

 

4.1 Value components

 

The values under the internal surplus requirements are:

 

Table 7

 

Embedded value components

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   Americas     Netherlands     United
Kingdom
    Hungary     Spain     Taiwan     Total 2004  

Life business

                                          

Adjusted net worth (ANW)

   7,877     3,537     645     195     66     40     12,362  

Free surplus (FS)

   660     593     168     149     23     3     1,597  

Required surplus (RS)

   7,218     2,944     477     46     43     37     10,765  

Value of in-force life business (ViF)

   4,973     2,546     2,380     223     16     297     10,434  

Present value future profits (PVFP)

   6,967     3,089     2,521     237     31     369     13,214  

Cost of capital (CoC)

   (1,995 )   (544 )   (141 )   (14 )   (15 )   (72 )   (2,780 )

Embedded value life insurance (EVLI)

   12,850     6,082     3,025     418     83     337     22,796  

Other activities

                                          

DAP book value

   1,022     (105 )   (40 )   (10 )   122     22     1,009  

DAP book value other countries

                                       57  

Total embedded value per country unit

   13,872     5,977     2,985     408     204     359     23,862  

Holding activities

                                       (6,277 )

Debt, capital securities & other net liabilities

                                       (6,078 )

Present value holding expenses

                                       (199 )

Total embedded value (TEV)

                                       17,585  

 

 

The solvency requirement on which the business is managed is based on the more stringent of the regulatory requirements and 165% of Standard and Poors’ local capital adequacy models, plus any additional internally imposed requirements, if applicable.

 

The prepaid pension costs on employee plans are included under other activities at DAP book value of EUR 1.0 billion after tax (2003 EUR 1.1 billion) and relate entirely to the US.

 

The embedded value life insurance increased as the negative impact of currency exchange movements was offset by strong performance on the in-force business and better investment experience during 2004 than assumed levels. For a detailed discussion of the change in embedded value life insurance from end of year 2003 to end of year 2004 refer to section 4.2

 

Embedded options and guarantee treatment

 

The Americas manages the exposure to embedded options and guarantees through duration matching of fixed interest assets and liabilities and, for certain variable products, through the use of equity hedge programs. To value the exposure of the equity or interest-rate risks a stochastic scenario approach is used for the products that contain significant guarantees or embedded options related to equity returns or interest rates. Modeling on a deterministic basis would have increased the EVLI by EUR 421 million after tax or USD 574 million.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

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In the Netherlands, the exposure to the minimum interest guarantees on traditional business is mitigated through duration matching of fixed interest assets and liabilities. The effects of minimum interest guarantees on traditional business, individual unit-linked business and separate account group contracts are valued using a stochastic scenario approach. Modeling on a deterministic basis would have increased the EVLI by EUR 128 million after tax.

 

In the United Kingdom, the guarantees and subsequently the cost for guarantees arise within the policyholder funds rather than shareholder-owned funds. In the context of the EVLI no material exposure arising to the shareholder-owned funds has been assessed.

 

The exposure to embedded options and guarantees in respect of other countries has also been valued stochastically, if and where material. Modeling on a deterministic basis would have increased the EVLI of these countries by EUR 5 million after tax.

 

In total, modeling on a deterministic basis would have increased the EVLI for the group by EUR 554 million after tax.

 

Non-recurring expenses

 

The Americas considered an amount of EUR 21 million after tax as non-recurring. The bulk of this is related to development expenditures in the international operations of its Direct Marketing Services division and a systems overhaul project in its pension business. The cost of this work has been reflected in the 2004 in-force life business performance but excluded from the determination of maintenance expense assumptions on an ongoing basis.

 

The UK treated an amount of EUR 31 million after tax of 2004 expenses as non-recurring costs. There is a program currently underway in the UK to substantially reduce the operating expenses. This program delivered cost savings in 2004 and will further reduce expenses in 2005. Part of the non-recurring costs in 2004 is related to the cost of implementing this expense management program and costs eliminated by this program.

 

The Netherlands and Spain have embarked on restructuring programs expected to deliver expense savings in the future. In the Netherlands, EUR 15 million of restructuring costs has been treated as non-recurring.

 

For all countries, any expected efficiency gains from restructuring programs have not been reflected in the expense assumptions.

 

 

Employee pension plan costs

 

Expense assumptions in the embedded value include the cost of providing employee pension benefits where appropriate. The allowance for these costs fully reflects the long-term cost of providing pensions and is consistent with the allowance for pensions elsewhere in the calculation of the total embedded value. For the Americas where prepaid pension costs on employee plans are already reflected in DAP book value (in other activities), no contribution holidays with respect to this pension asset are taken into account in the pension contribution expenses in the embedded value.

 

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 10 -    


Free surplus

 

The economic value of free surplus in the life business increased over 2004 mainly due to:

 

v net earnings from operations based on local regulatory accounting (EUR 1.9 billion), with some offset from
    capital movements including transfers from life operations to holding activities and non-life operations (EUR (0.8) billion),
    increases in required surplus from growth in the business (net impact of EUR (0.2) billion, resulting from EUR (0.7) billion from increase in required surplus on a constant currency basis with EUR 0.5 billion offset from currency exchange differences on required surplus),
    and currency exchange differences on free surplus (EUR (0.1) billion).

 

 

4.2 Movement analysis of embedded value life insurance

 

The change from year-to-year embedded value life insurance is split into the following components5.

The main items per country unit will be explained in further detail after table 8 and table 10.

 

Table 8

 

Movement analysis 2004

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   Americas     Netherlands     United
Kingdom
    Hungary     Spain     Taiwan     Total
2004
 
Embedded value life insurance BoY (as reported)    12,421     4,819     2,900     346     81     164     20,731  

BoY adjustment (A)

   -     178     -     -     (1 )   -     177  
Adjusted embedded value life insurance BoY    12,421     4,997     2,900     346     80     164     20,909  

Value of new business (VNB)

   311     29     78     20     2     48     489  

Gross value of new business

   674     73     124     26     7     82     986  

Tax

   (236 )   (25 )   (37 )   (4 )   (2 )   (21 )   (325 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (127 )   (19 )   (9 )   (1 )   (2 )   (13 )   (172 )

In-force performance

   1,397     491     132     52     5     3     2,081  

Unwinding discount rate

   939     391     226     25     4     13     1,598  

Variance

   361     (86 )   (67 )   17     (2 )   (10 )   213  

Change in operating assumptions

   97     186     (27 )   10     3     0     269  

Embedded value operating return

   1,708     520     209     73     7     51     2,570  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   284     358     105     6     0     (3 )   750  

Change in economic assumptions

   148     38     1     (2 )   (4 )   11     193  

Currency exchange differences

   (948 )   0     (7 )   24     0     (8 )   (939 )

Capital movements

   (749 )   0     (84 )   (60 )   0     122     (770 )

Miscellaneous impacts

   (15 )   168     (99 )   30     0     0     84  

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   12,850     6,082     3,025     418     83     337     22,796  

Other activities

                                       1,066  

Holding activities

                                       (6,277 )

Total embedded value

                                       17,585  

Embedded value operating margin (B)

   13.5 %   10.4 %   7.0 %   20.2 %   9.0 %   30.5 %   12.1 %

(A)  Embedded value life insurance BoY for 2004 in the Netherlands has been adjusted for the inclusion of pension service contracts and permanent health business, which increased EVLI by EUR 144 million (and decreased other activities by EUR 56 million), and also for stochastic valuation of options and guarantees in compliance with EEV, which increased EVLI by EUR 34 million. EVLI BoY for 2004 in Spain has been adjusted for stochastic valuation of options and guarantees in compliance with EEV which reduced EVLI by EUR 1 million.

(B)  Embedded value operating margin is calculated on a constant currency basis. See addendum 1, tables 14 to 19 for details.


5  Refer to addendum 1 ‘Movement analysis based on the internal surplus requirement per country unit and product segment’, tables 13 to 19, for a split per country unit and per product segment.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 11 -    


Currency exchange differences

An adverse currency variance of EUR 939 million was primarily caused by a weakening of the US dollar against the euro.

 

Capital movements

Capital movements include transfers from life operations to holding activities and non-life operations.

 

Americas

 

v The embedded value operating margin on a constant currency basis was 13.5%.
v The positive variance on in-force was a result of favorable spread, persistency, expense and tax experience.
v The change in operating assumptions reflected mainly a favorable update to persistency assumptions and loss ratios on direct marketing business, improved mortality assumptions in traditional life and improved performance on long-term care business with some offset from higher expense assumptions.
v The main components of the positive long-term investment variance were lower than expected credit losses, higher equity returns and a net positive variance from movement in interest rates.
v The positive change in economic assumptions largely reflected lower expected default costs and the net impact of reductions in the risk discount rate and the risk free return in Canada.
v The capital movement out of the Americas EVLI reflected dividend payments made from the life operations.

 

Netherlands

 

v The beginning-of-year EVLI calculation for 2004 was adjusted for inclusion of pension service contracts and permanent health business and for stochastic valuation of options and guarantees in compliance with EEV. In 2003 the pension service contracts and permanent health business were held at DAP equity in other activities.
v The embedded value operating margin was 10.4%.
v The main component of the adverse in-force variance was persistency.
v The change in operating assumptions reflected positive changes in asset mix, a decrease in effective tax rates on investment returns plus updated mortality improvement factors on pensions partially offset by increased maintenance expenses.
v The positive long-term investment variance related to better than expected investment performance.
v The miscellaneous impact mainly covered a decrease in tax rates6 offset by a transfer of capital to other activities and the reflection of the transaction price from the sale of Moneymaxx Germany.

 

 


6 In the Netherlands, the corporate tax rate reduced to 31.5% as of January 1, 2005. The tax rate will further reduce in 2006 to 30.5% and to 30% in 2007. These rates have been reflected in 2004 EOY embedded value life insurance.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 12 -    


United Kingdom

 

v The embedded value operating margin on a constant currency basis was 7.0%.
v The main components of the adverse in-force variance were persistency experience and tax variance arising from new business.
v The change in operating assumptions was mainly due to changes in persistency assumptions.
v The positive long-term investment variance was principally a result of higher than expected equity returns.
v The capital movement out of the UK EVLI reflected dividend payments made from the life operations.
v The miscellaneous impact mainly covered an adverse tax change, exceptional expenses and improvements to the embedded value processes and systems.

 

Hungary

 

v The embedded value operating margin on a constant currency basis was 20.2%.
v The main components of the in-force variance were higher than expected salary growth in pension fund management business and better persistency experience.
v The miscellaneous impact mainly covered improvements to the embedded value processes and systems.

 

Spain

 

v The beginning-of-year EVLI calculation for 2004 was adjusted for stochastic valuation of options and guarantees.
v The embedded value operating margin was 9.0%.
v No significant factors.

 

Taiwan

 

v The embedded value operating margin on a constant currency basis was 30.5%.
v The capital movement reflected a capital injection into AEGON Taiwan in 2004.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 13 -    


Value of new business

Value of new business represents the value created by new business sold during the reporting period. Table 9 links this value to modeled written premium7.

 

Table 9

 

Modeled new business

APE(A) and deposits

(amounts in EUR millions)

   Premium business
(TL, LAP, A&H)
APE
(C)
   Deposit business
(VA, FA, GIC’s, Fee)
Deposits
(B) (C)
   VNB       
   2004    2003    2004    2003    2004    2003    %  

Americas

   1,485    1,826    19,438    30,209      311    222    40 %

Netherlands (D)

   214    271    3    -      29    15    90 %

United Kingdom

   934    917    -    -      78    41    88 %

Hungary

   18    20    18    9      20    13    61 %

Spain

   32    24    -    -      2    2    48 %

Taiwan

   195    308    -    -      48    38    27 %

Total

   2,877    3,366    19,458    30,218      489    331    48 %
 

VNB

   361    240    128    90      489    331    48 %

(A)  APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

(B)  Including on and off balance sheet deposits

(C)  The new premium is materially in line with new business sales including A&H under AEGON’s primary accounting basis (DAP). Reported 2004 deposits equalled EUR 24,183 mln; the difference compared to the above stated number mainly relates to the elimination of deposits on existing contracts.

 

(D)  The VNB and APE for the Netherlands does not include the contribution of Moneymaxx Germany which was sold in 2005.

 

Table 10 shows VNB as a ratio of the present value of new business premiums, as well as calculated internal rates of return.

 

Table 10

 

2004 VNB Summary

(amounts in EUR millions)

  

Premium business

(TL, LAP, A&H)

   

Deposit business

(VA, FA, GIC’s, Fee)

   

Total VNB

  

Total IRR

 
   VNB    PVNBP    VNB/
PVNBP
    VNB/
APE
    VNB    Deposits    VNB/
Deposits
      

Americas

   195    5,470    3.6 %   13.1 %   116    19,438    0.6 %   311    11.8 %

Netherlands

   28    1,679    1.7 %   13.3 %   1    3    27.6 %   29    10.3 %

United Kingdom

   78    5,425    1.4 %   8.3 %   -      -      -     78    11.3 %

Hungary

   9    105    9.0 %   53.2 %   11    18    62.6 %   20    33.0 %

Spain

   2    164    1.4 %   7.3 %   -      -      -     2    10.5 %

Taiwan

   48    1,038    4.7 %   24.8 %   -      -      -     48    12.3 %

Total

   361    13,881    2.6 %   12.6 %   128    19,458    0.7 %   489       

 

 


7 Refer to addendum 1 ‘Movement analysis based on internal surplus requirement per country unit and product segment’ for the split of VNB per country unit and per reporting segment.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 14 -    


In the Americas, VNB increased 54% in US dollars (40% in euros). Increase in production in traditional life and life for account of policyholders was offset by a decrease in accident and health. The main drivers of the increase in VNB in traditional life and life for account of policyholders were higher production and repricing. VNB increased in accident and health as a result of higher margins offsetting the fall in production. For annuities the increase was a result of disciplined expense management along with the impact of lower guarantees in fixed annuities and repricing of variable annuities. Total VNB for traditional life and life for account of policyholders was USD 165 million compared with USD 110 million in 2003, while total VNB for fixed and variable annuities and accident and health business was USD 131 million compared with USD 30 million in 2003. Value of new business declined in GICs due to reduced spreads (VNB of USD 76 million compared to USD 87 million in 2003) and in fee business due to lower deposits (VNB of USD 15 million compared to USD 24 million in 2003).

 

In the Netherlands the increase in VNB was due to increased profitability in all lines of business due to focus on profit margins and lower acquisition expenses. In 2004, the VNB of A&H and fee business was included which added EUR 4 million to VNB.

 

The growth in VNB in the UK was largely a result of expense savings generated from the cost reduction program, higher sales levels of traditional products and pricing and margin initiatives.

 

The significant level of VNB generated by Taiwan reflects improved profit margins despite lower sales results in 2004. The good result in Hungary was due to a combination of good sales figures combined with attractive profit margins in the Hungarian market.

 

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 15 -    


5.    Sensitivities

 

Table 11 and table 12 reflect the impact of changing the underlying assumptions on the EVLI and the VNB respectively. In each sensitivity scenario, only the stated assumption(s) has been changed, while keeping other assumptions equal to the ‘base case’. However, any discretionary elements or policyholder behavior assumptions directly impacted by the changed assumption (e.g. bonus rates or dynamic lapses) are assumed to vary with the scenario, if appropriate. The base case relates to the embedded value life insurance, i.e. to the value of the modeled life business. The sensitivity results include the impact on the allowances for financial options and guarantees.

 

5.1 Embedded value life insurance sensitivity

 

Table 11

 

Sensitivity analysis embedded value life insurance

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

  Americas   Netherlands   United
Kingdom
  Hungary   Spain   Taiwan   All
regions

Base case embedded value-life insurance 2004

  12,850   6,082   3,025   418   83   337   22,796

100 bps decrease in discount rate

  8%   8%   7%   6%   4%   15%   8%

100 bps increase in discount rate

  -6%   -7%   -6%   -5%   -3%   -12%   -7%

100 bps decrease in fixed income returns

  -5%   -1%   0%   -2%   -8%   -53%   -4%

100 bps increase in fixed income returns

  2%   -2%   0%   3%   7%   39%   1%

100 bps decrease in equity and property returns

  -1%   -8%   -4%   0%   -1%   -3%   -3%

100 bps increase in equity and property returns

  1%   8%   4%   0%   1%   3%   3%

10bp increase in general account spread

  3%   1%   0%   0%   1%   8%   2%

10% decrease in lapse rates

  3%   0%   1%   1%   2%   14%   2%

10% increase in mortality/morbidity

  -7%   2%   0%   -1%   -1%   -3%   -4%

10% decrease in mortality/morbidity

  6%   -2%   0%   1%   1%   2%   3%

10% decrease in maintenance expenses

  2%   2%   2%   2%   2%   1%   2%

100 bps increase in expense inflation

  -1%   -2%   -1%   -1%   -1%   0%   -1%

100 bps decrease in expense inflation

  1%   1%   1%   1%   1%   1%   1%

 

The impact of the change in discount rate on the value of the business depends on the timing of the future profits: the higher the average remaining duration, the higher the sensitivity and the asymmetry to changes in discount rates.

 

The difference in sensitivity to changes in fixed income and equity and property returns between the country units mainly reflects the composition of the different in-force life portfolios and asset allocations. The asymmetry in sensitivity to fixed income returns can be attributed to the minimum guarantees in many products. As a result of these guarantees, future lower fixed income returns will not be fully offset by equally lower crediting rates.

 

Taiwan shows an asymmetric value change for the decrease and increase in fixed income returns. This reflects the level of guarantees underlying much of the business in Taiwan. However, the impact is lower than last year reflecting reductions in guaranteed rates on more recent business and particularly business generated in 2004.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 16 -    


5.2 Value of new business sensitivity

 

Table 12

 

 

Sensitivity analysis value of new business

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   Americas    Netherlands    United
Kingdom
   Hungary    Spain    Taiwan    All
regions

Base case value new business 2004

   311    29    78    20    2    48    489

100 bps decrease in discount rate

   29%    48%    37%    15%    29%    45%    33%

100 bps increase in discount rate

   -25%    -40%    -34%    -13%    -24%    -37%    -28%

100 bps decrease in fixed income returns

   -18%    -40%    -69%    -4%    -23%    -115%    -36%

100 bps increase in fixed income returns

   11%    31%    62%    5%    23%    106%    29%

100 bps decrease in equity and property returns

   -3%    -19%    -13%    -1%    0%    -6%    -6%

100 bps increase in equity and property returns

   3%    17%    14%    1%    0%    6%    6%

10bp increase in general account spread

   8%    4%    6%    0%    10%    14%    8%

10% decrease in lapse rates

   15%    7%    17%    7%    26%    27%    16%

10% increase in mortality/morbidity

   -23%    -8%    3%    -3%    -5%    -6%    -15%

10% decrease in mortality/morbidity

   22%    7%    -2%    3%    5%    5%    15%

10% decrease in acquisition expenses

   8%    15%    17%    5%    15%    2%    10%

10% decrease in maintenance expenses

   9%    13%    9%    3%    22%    2%    8%

100 bps increase in expense inflation

   -2%    -6%    -4%    -4%    -3%    -1%    -3%

100 bps decrease in expense inflation

   2%    4%    4%    4%    3%    1%    2%

 

In general, the value of new business is more sensitive to changes in parameters than the in-force. A relatively small change in future profits can have a relatively large impact on a small VNB compared to the VIF. The size and sign of the sensitivities depend on the profitability of the individual products as well as the composition of the new business portfolio within a country unit.

 

The difference in direction of the mortality/morbidity sensitivity in the UK versus the other countries reflects its higher composition of in-payment annuity new business for pension contracts.

 

The much lower sensitivity of Hungarian new business to changes in economic assumptions is largely a result of the key profit sources being product loadings, including mortality, which are not driven by investment markets.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 17 -    


6. Review statement

 

Introduction

 

The Tillinghast business of Towers Perrin (‘Tillinghast’) has been engaged to review the embedded values of AEGON’s life insurance subsidiaries in the Americas, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Hungary, Spain and Taiwan.

 

Scope

 

Tillinghast’s review covered:

v   Embedded values life insurance at December 31, 2004; and
v   Movement analysis of the embedded values life insurance (including value of new business) for 2004.

 

The scope of Tillinghast’s review included:

 

v   Assessment of AEGON’s adherence to the AEGON Principles;
v   Compliance of the AEGON Principles to European Embedded Value Principles;
v   Reasonableness of methodology and assumptions;
v   Review of the models; and Review of the base case embedded value results prepared on the internal surplus basis.

 

The scope did not include the indicative new business contribution from other countries (as set out in section 1.3, table 4), nor the value placed on ‘other activities’ (as these are audited figures).

 

Opinion

Tillinghast has reported the results of its review to AEGON as follows:

 

Tillinghast has reviewed the methodology and assumptions used by AEGON to determine the embedded values life insurance and has reviewed the resulting embedded values life insurance as at December 31, 2004 and the 2004 movement analysis.

 

The methodology used to calculate the results (‘AEGON Principles’) is described in addendum 5 of this document. The embedded values life insurance are based on projections of future after tax regulatory profits, with allowance for risk through the use of a single discount rate per currency and an explicit adjustment for the cost of capital. Explicit allowance has been made for embedded options and guarantees, as set out in section 4 of this document.

 

As a result of this review, Tillinghast considers that the methodology adopted, the assumptions used and the results shown in tables 7 and 8 have been properly prepared in accordance with the AEGON Principles, are reasonable and comply with the European Embedded Value Principles and Guidance. In giving this opinion, Tillinghast has relied on the values placed on the ‘other activities’ by AEGON.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 18 -    


Addendum 1: Movement analysis based on the internal surplus requirement per country unit and product segment

 

This addendum splits the movement analysis into product segments for AEGON as a whole and the different countries. First, the AEGON total split by reporting segment are presented in euro, then the movement of the six country units per reporting segment is stated in local currency with only the opening and closing value and the value of the other activities translated into euro.

 

AEGON Group

 

Table 13

 

Movement analysis 2004

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   TL     FA     VA     LAP     GICs     Fee     A&H     Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (as reported)

   8,015     2,496     1,559     5,518     1,229     476     1,438     20,731  

BoY adjustment (A)

   (81 )   -     -     105     -     20     133     177  

Adjusted embedded value life insurance BoY

   7,934     2,496     1,559     5,623     1,229     496     1,572     20,909  

Value of new business (VNB)

   240     14     29     56     61     24     65     489  

Gross value of new business

   476     48     56     123     124     38     121     986  

Tax

   (153 )   (17 )   (20 )   (39 )   (43 )   (11 )   (42 )   (325 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (83 )   (17 )   (7 )   (28 )   (19 )   (3 )   (14 )   (172 )

In-force performance

   875     354     57     361     145     57     232     2,081  

Unwinding discount rate

   599     193     117     449     88     38     115     1,598  

Variance

   143     162     (35 )   (159 )   66     21     17     213  

Change in operating assumptions

   134     (1 )   (24 )   71     (9 )   (2 )   101     269  

Embedded value operating return

   1,115     368     86     417     206     81     297     2,570  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   427     159     86     63     14     6     (4 )   750  

Change in economic assumptions

   (15 )   35     34     101     26     0     12     193  

Currency exchange differences

   (372 )   (194 )   (102 )   (54 )   (94 )   (24 )   (100 )   (939 )

Capital movements

   120     (409 )   8     (167 )   (202 )   (15 )   (106 )   (770 )

Miscellaneous impacts

   (262 )   13     (101 )   391     13     2     27     84  

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   8,946     2,469     1,570     6,374     1,192     547     1,699     22,796  

Other activities

                                             1,066  

Holding activities

                                             (6,277 )

Total embedded value

                                             17,585  

Embedded value operating margin (B)

   13.9%     14.5%     5.4%     7.3%     16.5%     15.9%     18.6%     12.1%  

 

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   TL    FA    VA    LAP    GICs    Fee    A&H    Total

Value of New Business 2004

   240    14    29    56    61    24    65    489

Present Value of New Business Premiums

   6,172              6,540              1,169    13,881

APE (C)

   1,281              1,122              481    2,884

Deposits

        2,302    2,886         7,446    6,824         19,458

 

(A) Embedded value life insurance BoY for 2004 has been adjusted for the following:

Traditional Life: stochastic valuation of options and guarantees in the Netherlands and Spain which resulted in a decrease in EVLI of EUR 72 million, transfer of EUR 9 million to A&H in the Americas; LAP: refinement of the stochastic valuation of options and guarantees in the Netherlands which resulted in a net increase in EVLI of EUR 105 million; Fee: inclusion of pension service contracts in the Netherlands which resulted in an increase in EVLI of EUR 20 million and A&H: inclusion of permanent health business in the Netherlands which resulted in an increase in EVLI of EUR 124 million, transfer of EUR 9 million from TL in the Americas

(B) Embedded value operating margin is calculated on a constant currency basis. See tables 14 to 19 for details.
(C) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 19 -    


Americas

 

Table 14

 

Movement analysis 2004

(amounts in USD millions unless stated otherwise,
after tax)

   TL     FA     VA     LAP     GICs     Fee     A&H     Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR mln)

   4,563     2,496     1,559     758     1,229     378     1,438     12,421  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (as reported)

   5,763     3,153     1,969     957     1,552     477     1,817     15,688  

BoY adjustment (A)

   (11 )   -     -     -     -     -     11     -  

Adjusted embedded value life insurance BoY

   5,752     3,153     1,969     957     1,552     477     1,828     15,688  

Value of new business (VNB)

   137     17     36     29     76     15     77     387  

Gross value of new business

   323     59     70     60     154     29     143     838  

Tax

   (113 )   (21 )   (24 )   (21 )   (54 )   (10 )   (50 )   (293 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (73 )   (21 )   (9 )   (11 )   (24 )   (4 )   (16 )   (158 )

In-force performance

   623     440     71     102     181     30     291     1,738  

Unwinding discount rate

   429     240     145     76     109     36     133     1,168  

Variance

   154     201     (44 )   10     82     14     31     449  

Change in operating assumptions

   40     (1 )   (30 )   16     (11 )   (20 )   127     121  

Embedded value operating return

   759     457     107     131     257     45     368     2,125  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   25     198     107     11     18     6     (11 )   353  

Change in economic assumptions

   4     43     42     50     32     0     13     184  

Currency exchange differences

   18     3     29     20     0     0     33     103  

Capital movements

   20     (508 )   10     (66 )   (251 )   (5 )   (132 )   (932 )

Miscellaneous impacts

   4     16     (125 )   41     16     3     26     (19 )

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   6,582     3,363     2,139     1,144     1,623     527     2,125     17,503  

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR mln)

   4,832     2,469     1,570     840     1,192     387     1,560     12,850  

Other activities (EUR mln)

                                             1,022  

Total embedded value for the Americas (EUR mln)

                                             13,872  

Embedded value operating margin

   13.2%     14.5%     5.4%     13.7%     16.5%     9.5%     20.1%     13.5%  

 

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in USD millions, after tax)

   TL    FA    VA    LAP    GICs    Fee    A&H    Total

Value of New Business 2004

   137    17    36    29    76    15    77    387

Present Value of New Business Premiums

   3,961              1,430              1,412    6,803

APE (B)

   1,018              245              593    1,856

Deposits

        2,862    3,589         9,260    8,462         24,173

 

 

(A)  Embedded value life insurance BoY 2004 has been adjusted for a transfer of EUR 9 million (USD 11 million) from Traditional Life to A&H.

(B)  APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 20 -    


The Netherlands

 

Table 15

 

Movement analysis 2004

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   TL     FA    VA    LAP     GICs    Fee     A&H     Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR mln)

   2,727     -      -      2,091     -      -       -       4,819  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (as reported)

   2,727     -      -      2,091     -      -       -       4,819  

BoY adjustment (A)

   (71 )   -      -      105     -      20     124     178  

Adjusted embedded value life insurance BoY

   2,656     -      -      2,196     -      20     124     4,997  

Value of new business (VNB)

   18     -      -      7     -      1     3     29  

Gross value of new business

   33     -      -      34     -      1     6     73  

Tax

   (11 )   -      -      (12 )   -      (0 )   (2 )   (25 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (3 )   -      -      (15 )   -      (0 )   (1 )   (19 )

In-force performance

   345     -      -      144     -      4     (2 )   491  

Unwinding discount rate

   203     -      -      178     -      1     8     391  

Variance

   36     -      -      (115 )   -      1     (8 )   (86 )

Change in operating assumptions

   106     -      -      80     -      1     (2 )   186  

Embedded value operating return

   364     -      -      151     -      4     1     520  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   406     -      -      (52 )   -      (0 )   5     358  

Change in economic assumptions

   (25 )   -      -      62     -      0     2     38  

Currency exchange differences

   0     -      -      0     -      -       -       0  

Capital movements

   0     -      -      0     -      -       -       0  

Miscellaneous impacts

   (245 )   -      -      409     -      (2 )   6     168  

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   3,155     -      -      2,766     -      22     138     6,082  

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR mln)

   3,155     -      -      2,766     -      22     138     6,082  

Other activities (EUR mln)

                                          (105 )

Total embedded value for the Netherlands (EUR mln)

                                          5,977  

Embedded value operating margin (%)

   13.7%     -      -      6.9%     -      22.2%     1.0%     10.4%  

 

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   TL    FA    VA    LAP    GICs    Fee    A&H    Total

Value of New Business 2004

   18    -      -      7    -      1    3    29

Present Value of New Business Premiums

   792              853              34    1,679

APE (B)

   83              126              4    214

Deposits

 

        -      -           -      3         3

 

(A) Embedded value life insurance BoY for 2004 has been adjusted for the following:

Traditional Life: stochastic valuation of options and guarantees which resulted in a decrease in EVLI of EUR 71 million

LAP: refinement of the stochastic valuation of options and guarantees which resulted in a net increase in EVLI of EUR 105 million

Fee: inclusion of pension service contracts in the Netherlands which resulted in an increase in EVLI of EUR 20 million

A&H: inclusion of permanent health business in the Netherlands which resulted in an increase in EVLI of EUR 124 million

(B) APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 21 -    


United Kingdom

 

Table 16

 

Movement analysis 2004

(amounts in GBP millions unless stated otherwise, after tax)

   TL     FA    VA    LAP     GICs    Fee    A&H    Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR mln)

 

   299     -    -    2,601     -    -    -    2,900  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (as reported)

   211     -    -    1,833     -    -    -    2,044  

BoY adjustment

   -     -    -    -     -    -    -    -  

Adjusted embedded value life insurance BoY

   211     -    -    1,833     -    -    -    2,044  

Value of new business (VNB)

   42     -    -    11     -    -    -    53  

Gross value of new business

   65     -    -    19     -    -    -    84  

Tax

   (20 )   -    -    (6 )   -    -    -    (25 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (4 )   -    -    (3 )   -    -    -    (6 )

In-force performance

   4     -    -    86     -    -    -    89  

Unwinding discount rate

   15     -    -    139     -    -    -    153  

Variance

   (7 )   -    -    (39 )   -    -    -    (45 )

Change in operating assumptions

   (4 )   -    -    (14 )   -    -    -    (18 )

Embedded value operating return

   46     -    -    97     -    -    -    142  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   (0 )   -    -    72     -    -    -    71  

Change in economic assumptions

   1     -    -    (0 )   -    -    -    1  

Currency exchange differences

   0     -    -    (1 )   -    -    -    (1 )

Capital movements

   6     -    -    (63 )   -    -    -    (57 )

Miscellaneous impacts

   (27 )   -    -    (41 )   -    -    -    (67 )

Embedded value life insurance EoY

 

   236     -    -    1,897     -    -    -    2,133  

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR mln)

   335     -    -    2,690     -    -    -    3,025  

Other activities (EUR mln)

                                        (40 )

Total embedded value for the United Kingdom (EUR mln)

                                        2,985  

Embedded value operating margin

   21.6 %   -    -    5.3 %   -    -    -    7.0 %

 

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in GBP millions, after tax)

   TL    FA    VA    LAP    GICs    Fee    A&H    Total

Value of New Business 2004

   42    -    -    11    -    -    -    53

Present Value of New Business Premiums

   686              2,997              -    3,683

APE (A)

   107              527              -    634

Deposits

 

        -    -         -    -         -

 

(A)  APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 22 -    


Hungary

 

Table 17

 

Movement analysis 2004

(amounts in HUF millions unless stated

otherwise, after tax)

   TL     FA    VA    LAP     GICs    Fee     A&H    Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR mln)

   190     -    -    58     -    98     -    346

 

 

Embedded value life insurance BoY (as reported)

   49,861     -    -    15,292     -    25,725     -    90,879  

BoY adjustment

   -     -    -    -     -    -     -    -  

Adjusted embedded value life insurance BoY

   49,861     -    -    15,292     -    25,725     -    90,879  

Value of new business (VNB)

   0     -    -    2,362     -    2,784     -    5,147  

Gross value of new business

   0     -    -    2,986     -    3,469     -    6,455  

Tax

   0     -    -    (478 )   -    (555 )   -    (1,033 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   0     -    -    (146 )   -    (130 )   -    (276 )

In-force performance

   3,940     -    -    1,955     -    7,319     -    13,214  

Unwinding discount rate

   3,121     -    -    1,114     -    2,074     -    6,309  

Variance

   1,019     -    -    1,247     -    2,085     -    4,351  

Change in operating assumptions

   (200 )   -    -    (407 )   -    3,161     -    2,555  

Embedded value operating return

   3,940     -    -    4,317     -    10,103     -    18,361  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   1,218     -    -    83     -    321     -    1,623  

Change in economic assumptions

   (416 )   -    -    27     -    (28 )   -    (417 )

Currency exchange differences

   0     -    -    0     -    0     -    0  

Capital movements

   (6,787 )   -    -    (5,429 )   -    (2,784 )   -    (15,000 )

Miscellaneous impacts

   4,764     -    -    2,298     -    386     -    7,448  

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   52,581     -    -    16,588     -    33,724     -    102,893

 

 

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR mln)

   214     -    -    67     -    137     -    418  

Other activities (EUR mln)

                                         (10 )

Total embedded value for Hungary (EUR mln)

                                         408  

Embedded value operating margin

   7.9 %   -    -    28.2 %   -    39.3 %   -    20.2 %

 

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in HUF millions, after tax)

   TL    FA    VA    LAP    GICs    Fee    A&H    Total

Value of New Business 2004

   0    -    -    2,362    -    2,784    -    5,147

Present Value of New Business Premiums

   0              26,366              -    26,366

APE (A)

   0              4,440              -    4,440

Deposits

        -    -         -    4,445         4,445

 

 

(A)  APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 23 -    


Spain

 

Table 18

 

Movement analysis 2004

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   TL     FA    VA    LAP     GICs    Fee    A&H    Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR mln)

   71     -    -    10     -    -    -    81  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (as reported)

   71     -    -    10     -    -    -    81  

BoY adjustment (A)

   (1 )   -    -    -     -    -    -    (1 )

Adjusted embedded value life insurance BoY

   70     -    -    10     -    -    -    80  

Value of new business (VNB)

   2     -    -    0     -    -    -    2  

Gross value of new business

   6     -    -    1     -    -    -    7  

Tax

   (2 )   -    -    (0 )   -    -    -    (2 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (2 )   -    -    0     -    -    -    (2 )

In-force performance

   5     -    -    0     -    -    -    5  

Unwinding discount rate

   3     -    -    1     -    -    -    4  

Variance

   (2 )   -    -    (0 )   -    -    -    (2 )

Change in operating assumptions

   3     -    -    0     -    -    -    3  

Embedded value operating return

   6     -    -    1     -    -    -    7  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   0     -    -    0     -    -    -    0  

Change in economic assumptions

   (4 )   -    -    0     -    -    -    (4 )

Currency exchange differences

   0     -    -    0     -    -    -    0  

Capital movements

   0     -    -    0     -    -    -    0  

Miscellaneous impacts

   0     -    -    0     -    -    -    0  

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   72     -    -    11     -    -    -    83  

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR mln)

   72     -    -    11     -    -    -    83  

Other activities (EUR mln)

                                        122  

Total embedded value for Spain (EUR mln)

                                        204  

Embedded value operating margin

   9.1%     -    -    8.1%     -    -    -    9.0%  

 

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in EUR millions, after tax)

   TL    FA    VA    LAP    GICs    Fee    A&H    Total

Value of New Business 2004

   2    -    -    0    -    -    -    2

Present Value of New Business Premiums

   146              18              -    164

APE (B)

   27              5              -    32

Deposits

        -    -         -    -         -

 

(A)  Embedded value life insurance BoY for 2004 has been adjusted in Traditional Life for the stochastic valuation of options and guarantees in compliance with EEV which decreased EVLI by EUR 1 million.

(B)  APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 24 -    


Taiwan

 

Table 19

 

Movement analysis 2004

(amounts in NTD millions unless stated otherwise,

after tax)

   TL     FA    VA    LAP    GICs    Fee    A&H    Total  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (EUR mln)

   164     -      -      -      -      -      -      164  

Embedded value life insurance BoY (as reported)

   7,039     -      -      -      -      -      -      7,039  

BoY adjustment

   -       -      -      -      -      -      -      -    

Adjusted embedded value life insurance BoY

   7,039     -      -      -      -      -      -      7,039  

Value of new business (VNB)

   2,016     -      -      -      -      -      -      2,016  

Gross value of new business

   3,421     -      -      -      -      -      -      3,421  

Tax

   (855 )   -      -      -      -      -      -      (855 )

Cost of capital (after tax)

   (550 )   -      -      -      -      -      -      (550 )

In-force performance

   131     -      -      -      -      -      -      131  

Unwinding discount rate

   555     -      -      -      -      -      -      555  

Variance

   (425 )   -      -      -      -      -      -      (425 )

Change in operating assumptions

   0     -      -      -      -      -      -      0  

Embedded value operating return

   2,146     -      -      -      -      -      -      2,146  

Variance from long-term inv. return

   (137 )   -      -      -      -      -      -      (137 )

Change in economic assumptions

   474     -      -      -      -      -      -      474  

Currency exchange differences

   0     -      -      -      -      -      -      0  

Capital movements

   5,082     -      -      -      -      -      -      5,082  

Miscellaneous impacts

   0     -      -      -      -      -      -      0  

Embedded value life insurance EoY

   14,604     -      -      -      -      -      -      14,604  

Embedded value life insurance EoY (EUR mln)

   337     -      -      -      -      -      -      337  

Other activities (EUR mln)

                                       22  

Total embedded value for Taiwan (EUR mln)

                                       359  

Embedded value operating margin

   30.5 %   -      -      -      -      -      -      30.5 %

 

VNB, PVNBP and APE

(amounts in NTD millions, after tax)

   TL    FA    VA    LAP    GICs    Fee    A&H    Total

Value of New Business 2004

   2,016    -      -      -      -      -      -      2,016

Present Value of New Business Premiums

   43,272              -                -      43,272

APE (A)

   8,113              -                -      8,113

Deposits

 

        -  

 

   -  

 

        -  

 

   -  

 

        -  

 

 

(A)  APE = recurring premium + 1/10 single premium

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 25 -    


Addendum 2: Outcome based on the regulatory surplus requirement

 

Table 20

 

Embedded value components -

Regulatory surplus

(amounts in EUR millions, after
tax)

   Americas     Netherlands     United
Kingdom
    Hungary     Spain     Taiwan     Total
2004
    Total
2003
 

Life business

                                                

Adjusted net worth (ANW)

   7,877     3,537     645     195     66     40     12,362     11,441  

Free surplus (FS)

   4,523     1,646     351     160     42     3     6,725     5,788  

Required surplus (RS)

   3,355     1,891     294     36     25     37     5,637     5,652  

Value of in-force life business (ViF)

   6,056     2,775     2,435     228     23     325     11,842     10,834  

Present value future profits (PVFP)

   6,967     3,089     2,521     237     31     369     13,214     12,382  

Cost of capital (CoC)

   (911 )   (314 )   (86 )   (9 )   (8 )   (44 )   (1,372 )   (1,549 )

Embedded value life insurance (EVLI)

   13,934     6,312     3,080     423     89     365     24,204     22,274  

Other activities

                                                

DAP book value non life

   1,022     (105 )   (40 )   (10 )   122     22     1,009     1,357  

DAP book value other countries

                                       57     48  

Total embedded value per country unit

   14,956     6,207     3,040     413     211     387     25,270     23,679  

Holding activities

                                       (6,277 )   (6,495 )

Debt, capital securities & other net liabilities

                                       (6,078 )   (6,331 )

Present value holding expenses

                                       (199 )   (163 )

Total embedded value (TEV)

                                       18,993     17,184  

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 26 -    


Addendum 3: Recoverability of DPAC

 

This section discusses a number of differences between embedded value and the accounting treatment of DPAC (including VOBA), with the aim of linking embedded value to DPAC. The DPAC analyzed here is on a DAP basis as this is the accounting basis on which AEGON’s 2004 financial statements are based. AEGON has adopted IFRS for its 2005 financial statements. A comparison to IFRS DPAC balances would have no material impact on the coverage ratios.

 

Policy acquisition costs are deferred to the extent that they are recoverable from future expense charges in the premiums or from expected gross profits, depending on the nature of the contract. Every year the deferred policy acquisition costs are tested by country unit and product line to assess the recoverability. Included in DPAC is the value of business acquired (VOBA) resulting from acquisitions, which is equal to a proportion of the present value of estimated future profits on insurance policies in-force related to business acquired at the time of the acquisition and is in its nature the same as deferred policy acquisition costs and also subject to the same recoverability testing.

 

Differences between the assessment of embedded value and DPAC/VOBA, include, but are not limited to, the following:

 

v   DPAC/VOBA in most countries is based on different accounting assumptions from those used in EVLI
v   DPAC/VOBA should be compared to DAP profits instead of local statutory profits, on which EVLI is based
v   DPAC/VOBA under DAP is reported pre-tax; EVLI is on an after tax basis

 

In the Netherlands, DPAC/VOBA is reflected in EVLI, where it is an admissible asset.

 

Under the EV framework, the present value of future profits (PVFP) represents the present value of future after tax regulatory profits projected to emerge from business in the current life insurance portfolio, discounted at the embedded value discount rate. For the reasons explained above, this PVFP cannot be compared directly to the DPAC/VOBA.

 

To arrive at a comparable basis, the profits included in the PVFP are adjusted to represent the present value of future pre-tax DAP profits, before DPAC/VOBA amortization and discounted at the earned rate, net of investment charges/ expenses. The outcome of this calculation is compared to outstanding DPAC/VOBA balances to give an indication of the extent to which

the aggregate DPAC/VOBA is recoverable. However, it should be noted that actual DPAC/VOBA recoverability testing does not occur in aggregate but rather at a lower level of segmentation and hence accelerated amortization may be required from time to time on specific blocks or segments of business even though ample coverage exists in aggregate.

 

Table 21 shows that total life insurance DPAC/VOBA has a coverage ratio of 196%. All of the country units showed coverage ratios above 100%.

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 27 -    


Table 21

 

DPAC Recoverability

(amounts in EUR millions, pre tax)

   Americas    Netherlands    United
Kingdom
   Hungary    Spain    Taiwan    Total
2004

Adjusted PVFP

   14,048    5,864    4,476    446    63    774    25,671

Gross DPAC

   8,090    860    3,895    28    14    214    13,101

Coverage

   174%    682%    115%    1594%    461%    362%    196%

 

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 28 -    


Addendum 4: Exchange rates

 

The currency exchange rates used in this report are reflected below. The weighted average exchange rates are used for the amounts in the movement analysis whereas the closing exchange rates are used for the year–end 2004 and 2003 amounts.

 

Table 22

 

Closing exchange rates at December 31, 2004               
     EUR    USD    CAD    GBP    HUF    NTD

1 EUR

   —      1.362    1.642    0.705    245.970    43.315

1 USD

   0.734    —      1.205    0.518    180.581    31.800

1 CAD

   0.609    0.830    —      0.430    149.836    26.386

1 GBP

   1.418    1.932    2.328    —      348.844    61.431

100 HUF

   0.407    0.554    0.667    0.287    —      17.610

100 NTD

   2.309    3.145    3.790    1.628    567.863    —  
 
Weighted average exchange rates 2004               
     EUR    USD    CAD    GBP    HUF    NTD

1 EUR

   —      1.244    1.617    0.679    251.830    41.690

1 USD

   0.804    —      1.300    0.546    202.501    33.524

1 CAD

   0.619    0.769    —      0.420    155.778    25.789

1 GBP

   1.473    1.832    2.381    —      370.884    61.399

100 HUF

   0.397    0.494    0.642    0.270    —      16.555

100 NTD

   2.399    2.983    3.878    1.629    604.054    —  
 
Closing exchange rates at December 31, 2003               
     EUR    USD    CAD    GBP    HUF    NTD

1 EUR

   —      1.263    1.623    0.705    262.500    42.880

1 USD

   0.792    —      1.285    0.558    207.838    33.951

1 CAD

   0.616    0.778    —      0.434    161.698    26.414

1 GBP

   1.419    1.792    2.303    —      372.446    60.840

100 HUF

   0.381    0.481    0.618    0.268    —      16.335

100 NTD

   2.332    2.945    3.786    1.644    612.174    —  
 
Weighted average exchange rates 2003               
     EUR    USD    CAD    GBP    HUF    NTD

1 EUR

   —      1.131    1.581    0.691    253.340    39.150

1 USD

   0.884    —      1.398    0.611    223.977    34.612

1 CAD

   0.633    0.715    —      0.437    160.250    24.764

1 GBP

   1.447    1.637    2.288    —      366.681    56.665

100 HUF

   0.395    0.446    0.624    0.273    —      15.454

100 NTD

   2.554    2.889    4.038    1.765    647.101    —  

 

Embedded Value Report 2004

  - 29 -    


Addendum 5: Methodology

 

Scope

 

Each division in each country unit calculates the embedded value life insurance (EVLI) for the relevant product segments within the life insurance entities (life business) based on detailed actuarial calculations:

 

v   Traditional life (TL)
v   Fixed annuities (FA)
v   GICs and funding agreements (GICs)
v   Life for account of policyholders (LAP)
v   Variable annuities (VA)
v   Fee business (Fee)
v   Accident and health (A&H)8

 

All business not included in the life entities, such as general insurance, A&H in non-life entities, mutual funds and banking products is referred to as other activities9. All business in non-life entities is valued at DAP book value.

 

The sum of the embedded value life insurance per country unit and the value of the other activities is referred to as total embedded value per country unit.

 

The adjustments in respect of the holding activities comprise two parts:

v   Debt, capital securities and other net liabilities included at their DAP book values which are not discounted;
v   The present value of future after tax holding expenses, representing the expenses incurred by the group staff departments which are not allocated to the country units.

 

The sum of the total embedded value per country unit and the adjustment in respect of the holding activities represents the total embedded value (TEV).

 

The assumptions, methods and results were subject to an independent external review (refer to section 6).

 

Methodology and definitions

 

Calculation of the embedded value life insurance requires a considerable number of assumptions to be set with respect to both expected operational and economic developments. The principles developed by AEGON to calculate its embedded value life insurance and value of new business are intended to reflect industry best practices for the purpose of supplementary reporting.

 

 


8  The A&H business in the life entities is modelled in detail and included in the embedded value life insurance, while the A&H business in the non-life entities is generally categorized as ‘other activities’.

9  The exception to this rule is business in non-life companies that is either identical to business written in the life business companies, or inseparable from it. E.g. in the US, a detailed actuarial calculation for the 401(k) retirement plan business that invests in mutual funds is included in the embedded value life insurance even though it is written through a non-life company. Basically, business in mutual fund companies arising from investment of assets from life insurance business is included in the EVLI, whereas pure retail mutual fund business is included in ‘other activities’.

 

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Embedded value life insurance

 

The embedded value life insurance only reflects the value that arises from current business (assuming a closed book) and therefore does not include a value for future new business.

 

The embedded value life insurance is built up from the following components:

 

EVLI

     =    Free surplus    }   Adjusted net worth
       +    Required surplus     
       +    Present value of future profits    }   Value of in-force life business
          Cost of capital     

 

The EVLI is defined as the adjusted net worth (ANW) plus value of in-force life business (ViF)10.

 

ANW represents the market value of available assets in excess of liabilities determined on the local regulatory basis. ANW is split between required surplus and free surplus. Required surplus represents assets required to be present in the company to support the in-force life business (solvency requirement). Assets backing required surplus are marked-to-market. Free surplus represents assets available at the valuation date that are not required to support the in-force life business, and is the excess of assets over the sum of the liabilities (on the regulatory basis) and the required surplus. Assets backing free surplus are marked-to-market. Refer to table 6 for a reconciliation of the total capital base to ANW.

 

The ViF equals the present value of future profits (PVFP) less the cost of capital (CoC). The PVFP represents the present value of future after tax regulatory profits projected to emerge from business in the current life insurance portfolio discounted at the discount rate. The discount rate both reflects the time value of money and a risk margin. The CoC originates from the fact that solvency requirements will constrain distributions to shareholders while earning a net return less than the discount rate.

 

The cost of capital depends on the level of required surplus and affects the EVLI. The higher the required surplus, the greater the CoC and this switch from free surplus to required surplus results in a lower EVLI. The AEGON internal requirement is based on the higher of the local minimum regulatory requirements and 165% of the Standard and Poors’ (S&P) local capital adequacy models, plus any additional internally imposed requirements, if applicable (internal basis). However, for comparison purposes, addendum 2 includes the embedded value components and the embedded value life insurance per country unit on the regulatory surplus basis.

 

Movement analysis including new business

 

A movement analysis illustrates the change in embedded value life insurance from one reporting period to the next. One of the components of the movement analysis is the value of new business (VNB). The VNB is a measure of the value added by production sold within the last reporting period. It is calculated at the end of the reporting period and based on the beginning of year economic assumptions and assumptions outside of management control, and end of year operating assumptions. The change to end of year economic assumptions is reflected under ‘change in economic assumptions’, while the difference between the assumed and actual investment experience is reflected in the ‘variance from long-term investment return’.

 

 


10  Alternatively, the sum of the required surplus and present value of future profits less the cost of capital is also known as the present value of distributable earnings (PVDE). The value of the free surplus plus the PVDE then equals the embedded value life insurance.

 

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Where pre-tax numbers are presented, the calculations are carried out on an after tax basis and the profits are then grossed up for the relevant corporate tax rate.

 

Operating assumptions

 

Operating assumptions are best estimate assumptions and based on historical data where available. The assumptions fall into two categories: operating assumptions involving policyholder behavior and operating assumptions involving company policies, strategies and operations. All assumptions fall within the scope of the external review and reflect a going concern basis.

 

Operating assumptions involving policyholder behavior

 

Operating assumptions involving policyholder behavior, such as premium contributions, mortality, morbidity and persistency, reflect the company’s ‘best estimate’ of future experience and are based on the historical and current experience of the company. These assumptions are adjusted to reflect known changes in the environment and identifiable trends. If historical data is insufficient to provide a reliable basis to develop assumptions, the company’s best judgment is used taking into consideration the company’s pricing and/or reserving assumptions and the experience of other companies with comparable products, markets and operating procedures.

 

Operating assumptions involving company policies, strategies and operations

 

Operating assumptions involving company policies, strategies and operations, such as profit sharing/bonus rates and reinsurance and investment/reinvestment strategies, reflect contractual requirements as well as the most current policies, strategies and operations.

 

Consistent with the close matching approach implemented in 2004, the estate of Guardian Assurance in AEGON UK has been valued assuming its distribution as terminal bonus.

 

Allowances for tax reflect best estimates of future taxes according to local taxation rules, taking into account current ‘substantially enacted’ legislation and tax rates. This best estimate of future taxes initially assumes no future new business (i.e. is on a closed book basis) and includes both cash and accrual adjustments (e.g., deferred taxes). The tax attributed to new business written in the year is generally determined by considering the marginal impact of that new business on the existing business tax position (allowing for any losses carried forward). For the UK, the tax attributable to new business assumes that existing business profits are first made available to relieve new business strains, with any balance of such profits then being used to relieve carried forward losses. The UK new business strains and current tax position of the fund thus generate a negative tax variance, which has been included under ‘in-force variance’ in the movement analysis in section 4.2.

 

Expenses are based on current experience. Expenses that can clearly be demonstrated as non-recurring are identified and omitted from maintenance or acquisition costs and excluded from the determination of the appropriate unit expense assumptions. Expenses are subject to inflation adjustments into the future11. Holding expenses reflect the present value of expected future expenses incurred by the holding companies (present value holding expenses). These expenses are assumed to run off in line with the in-force life business.

 

The target investment mix assumed does not vary with different scenarios. Where the current investment mix is different from the target, the target mix is modeled to be reached over a period of time.

 

 


11  Refer to section 2.1 ‘Economic assumptions’ for the inflation assumptions.

 

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Operating assumptions are reviewed each year and a determination is made as to whether they should be changed.

 

Economic assumptions

 

Economic assumptions used in the embedded value are based on observable market data and projections of future trends. These assumptions are approved by the Executive Board.

 

Risk discount rate

 

The discount rates used in embedded value reflect AEGON’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC). From the WACC, we derive an AEGON risk margin as the difference between the WACC and weighted current risk free rates across the major country units. Discount rates are then calculated at a country unit level to reflect the AEGON risk margin and the country risk free rate assumption. (A similar approach was applied in 2003, except that the discount rate derivation was at a group level to arrive at a single rate for the group.) Where risk free rates are projected to move from current market rates to an ultimate long-term rate, the risk margin is applied to a blended rate to arrive at a single risk discount rate. No adjustment to discount rates is made among the three major country units to reflect differences in business risk either at country level or business unit/product level. However, specific risk factors within each of these three countries will be reflected in the reserves set at a local level. An allowance for specific risk factors in the new/smaller country units is included in the discount rates where appropriate.

 

Equity return

 

The method used to derive projected equity returns is similar to that used to derive risk discount rates.

 

Risk free fixed interest returns

 

Risk free fixed interest returns correspond to the government bond yield for ten-year fixed interest instruments. These returns are used to derive risk discount rates and also underlie projections of returns on reinvestments, which will vary by the duration and credit characteristics of the assumed investment policy. In the Americas and Taiwan, the assumed returns grade from the current market levels to the long-term assumptions over a period of approximately five years (and in the Eurozone, over a period of approximately two years).

 

Embedded options and guarantees

 

Insurance policies can have options and guarantees that are embedded in the product design (embedded options and guarantees). These embedded options and guarantees include minimum guaranteed death/income benefits, minimum interest guarantees (floors), minimum (cash) surrender values, annuity options, etc.

 

An explicit allowance for the exposure of all material embedded options and guarantees has been included by assessing their impact on embedded value life insurance using mostly stochastic modeling. The methodology and assumptions used to assess the exposure of the financial options and guarantees for the two regions where the impact on the EVLI is material are described below.

 

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Americas

Stochastic modeling methodology

The embedded value is taken as the average of the values calculated over a range of stochastic scenarios. The risk discount rate used in each scenario is described in table 5.

 

Scenarios for general account products

 

v   Treasury yield curve scenarios

These scenarios model the US treasury yield curve. The underlying dynamics of the scenario generator are lognormal, with mean reversion to the assumed interest rate levels as described in table 5 as well as further adjustments in the event that the rates become too extreme. A short maturity (90-day) and long maturity (10-year) rate are projected. For both rates a quarterly volatility, a mean reversion target, and a mean reversion factor are specified, as well as a correlation between the movements of the two projected rates. Volatilities (standard deviations) are based on historical data. The net credit spreads are not assumed to vary by scenario.

 

Table 23

 

Stochastic modeling mean reversion targets

        

Maturity

   Reversion Target   Quarterly
Yield
Volatility

90-day

   3.50%   16%

10-year

   5.25%   8%

 

v   Equity scenarios

Common stock and preferred stock account for less than 2% of the total AEGON USA general account assets. Therefore, these are not modeled separately.

 

Scenarios for separate account products

These scenarios cover various classes of equities and fixed income investments (bonds, money markets) as benchmarks for separate account funds. The underlying dynamics of the generator are lognormal, with inputs of expected returns and volatilities for each fund class as well as correlations between fund classes. Volatilities and correlations between funds are based on historical data. The current economic environment and forward-looking assumptions as per the dividend discount model were used to determine expected annual returns.

 

Within the stochastic scenarios, non-economic assumptions such as lapses are modeled dynamically. No management behavior is modeled.

 

Table 24

 

Stochastic modeling

assumptions

   Effective Annualized
Long-term Gross
Return
  Annual Price
Volatility (A)

Equity

   8.00%   16.00%

Convertible Bonds

   7.20%   11.40%

Lehman Aggregate Bonds

   5.75%   3.50%

Money Market

   3.50%   0.20%

(A)  Volatilities in this table are with respect to volatilities of returns

 

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Table 25

 

Correlation matrix (A)

   Equity    Convertible
Bonds
   Lehman
Aggregate
Bond
   Money
Market

Equity

   1.00    0.86    0.22    -0.16

Convertible Bonds

   0.86    1.00    0.03    -0.11

Lehman Aggregate Bond

   0.22    0.03    1.00    0.31

Money Market

   -0.16    -0.11    0.31    1.00

(A)  Correlations in this table are with respect to correlations of returns

 

The Netherlands

Stochastic modeling methodology

The allowance in embedded value for the minimum interest guarantees in the life insurance portfolio (traditional business, unit-linked portfolios and separate account contracts) is calculated stochastically, where applicable. The impact of the financial options is calculated using the average values of the future after-tax shortfalls over a range of stochastic scenarios, discounted using the risk discount rate described in table 5.

 

Within the stochastic scenarios non-economic assumptions are based on best estimates. No management behavior is modeled.

 

Scenarios for general account products

Profit sharing is entirely driven by an externally defined basket of government bonds. Therefore, no equity return or correlation assumptions are required to assess the exposure to the financial options and guarantees embedded in the traditional products.

 

At year-end 2004, the book yield on this basket equaled 3.73%. To assess the value of the minimum guarantees, a mean reversion target return of 4.25% is assumed for this benchmark. Projected interest rate scenarios are specified taking into account correlation between successive years, the mean reversion target and volatility. The model volatility is related to the implied volatility of the 7-year yield as an approximation of the actual volatility of the profit-sharing benchmark.

 

Table 26

 

Stochastic modeling mean reversion targets

     Reversion
Target
   Annual Yield
Volatility

Profit-sharing rate

   4.25%    14.8%

 

Scenarios for unit-linked and separate account pension products

The unit-linked portfolio and separate account pension contracts are backed by a mix of equities and fixed income investments. The underlying dynamics of the scenario generators are lognormal, with inputs of expected returns and volatilities as well as the correlation matrix. The tables below include the mix of the underlying assets, the expected returns, volatilities per asset class and the assumed correlations for each of the unit-linked and separate account products. Volatilities and correlations between asset classes are based on historical data.

 

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Table 27

 

Stochastic modeling unit-linked portfolio

AEGON Mix Fund

   Distribution    Expected
return
   Annual Price
Volatility

Equity

   40%    7.20%    17.50%

Bonds (A)

   55%    3.90%/
4.10%/
4.25%
   4.00%

Property

   5%    6.50%    16.20%

(A)  The expected return on bonds grades from 3.90% to 4.25% over two years.

 

Table 28

 

Stochastic modeling unit-linked portfolio

Correlation matrix (A)

   Equity    Bonds    Property

Equity

   1.0    -0.4    0.7

Bonds

   -0.4    1.0    -0.1

Property

   0.7    -0.1    1.0

 

(A)  Correlations in this table are with respect to correlations of returns

 

Table 29

 

Stochastic modeling separate accounts pensions

     Distribution    Expected
return
   Annual Price
Volatility

Equity

   20%    7.20%    17.50%

Bonds (A)

   80%    4.14%/
4.38%/
4.49%
   4.00%

(A)  The expected return on bonds grades from 4.14% to 4.49% over two years.

 

Table 30

 

Stochastic modeling separate accounts pensions

Correlation matrix (A)

   Equity    Bonds

Equity

   1.0    -0.4

Bonds

   -0.4    1.0

(A)  Correlations in this table are with respect to correlations of returns

 

Required capital

 

The solvency requirement underlying the cost of capital allowance in the embedded value is the internal surplus requirement on which the business is managed. This requirement is based on the more stringent of the local regulatory requirement and 165% of the Standard and Poors’ local capital adequacy models plus any additional internally imposed requirements, if applicable. In addition, embedded value figures calculated using the regulatory surplus requirement are shown in table 20, in addendum 2.

 

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Glossary and abbreviations

 

Glossary

 

Base case

   The EVLI, TEV and VNB calculated under the set of assumptions and methodology outlined in addendum 5 Methodology. Sensitivity tests reflecting a deviation on the assumptions are presented in comparison to the base case.
Closed book    An assumption that the portfolio will run off after the valuation date and is not expected to grow with future new business.
Cost of capital    The cost related to having to hold solvency capital that will constrain distributions to shareholders. The cost originates from the fact that the net return earned on the assets backing this capital is lower than the discount rate.
DAP book value    Net asset value based on generally accepted Dutch accounting principles.
Discount rate    The rate at which future cash flows are discounted back to the valuation date.
Embedded options and guarantees    Can apply to both assets and liabilities of AEGON. On assets, refers to features such as the ability to exercise an option to call, put, prepay or convert an asset. On liabilities, refers to features such as minimum guaranteed death/income benefits, minimum interest guarantees (floors), minimum (cash) surrender values, annuity options, etc.
Embedded value life insurance    The present value of the existing life insurance business at the valuation date and excluding any value attributable to future new business.
Embedded value life insurance movement    The change in embedded value life insurance from one reporting year to another.
Embedded value operating margin    Return on embedded value from operating activities. Defined as embedded value operating return divided by beginning of year embedded value (after any beginning of year adjustments) on a constant currency basis.
Embedded value operating return    Embedded value earnings from operating activities. Defined as the value of new business plus in-force performance.
European Embedded Value Principles    A consistent framework for the calculation and reporting of embedded value published in May 2004 by the CFO Forum, a group representing the Chief Financial Officers of major European insurers.
Free surplus    Excess of assets available at the valuation date over capital needed to support the business (liabilities and required surplus).

 

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Going concern basis    Business outlook assumption that expects the business to behave under normal conditions but excluding the value generated by future new business.
Gross value of new business    The value of new business, grossed-up at the relevant corporate tax rate, before allowance for the cost of capital.
In-force business    Contracts and policies that are in effect as at the valuation date.
In-force performance    Defined as unwinding discount rate plus current-year experience variance from non-economic assumptions within management control plus change in operating assumptions.
Internal rate of return    The discount rate at which the present value of the distributable earnings from new business equals the investment in new business, i.e. the projected return on the initial investment in new business.
Internal surplus basis    The more stringent of local regulatory solvency requirements and 165% of the Standard and Poors’ (S&P) solvency requirements, plus any additional internally imposed requirements, if applicable.
International Financial Reporting Standards    A set of accounting standards developed by the International Accounting Standards Board. All publicly listed companies in the European Union are required to prepare their financial statements in conformity with IFRS beginning January 1, 2005.
Mark-to-market    The adjustment of the asset value from regulatory value to market value.
Movement analysis    An explanation of the change in embedded value life insurance from one reporting period to the next.
Net asset spreads    Excess of net investment return over the risk free rate.
Persistency    The rate at which policies and contracts remain in-force.
Present value of distributable earnings    The discounted value of expected future distributable earnings as at the valuation date at the discount rate.
Present value of new business premiums    The discounted value of modeled premiums on the block of business sold in the latest reporting year.
Reporting segment    The product type categories of business on which AEGON reports externally for DAP and EVLI/TEV.
Required surplus    The capital that AEGON is required to hold in order to satisfy local regulatory solvency requirements or to demonstrate financial strength (via ratings from agencies such as Standard & Poors’ and Moody’s).
Reserve base    Methodology or principle basis to calculate the level of reserves.

 

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Total embedded value    The sum of the embedded value life insurance and the value of the other activities and holding activities.
Time value of money    The expected value of money at a certain valuation date.
Unwinding discount rate    Expected return on the beginning of year EVLI.
Value of new business    The present value of the future distributable earnings on the block of business sold in the latest reporting year. Value of new business is calculated using beginning of year economic assumptions and assumptions outside of management control, and end of year operating assumptions.
Value of in-force    The present value of the expected future profits emerging from the business in-force as of the valuation date minus the cost of capital.
Variance analysis    Explanation of the difference between actual and expected experience related to assumptions.

 

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Abbreviations

A&H    Accident & health
ANW    Adjusted net worth
APE    Annualized premium equivalent
BoY    Beginning of year
CoC    Cost of capital
DPAC    Deferred policy acquisition costs
DAP    Dutch accounting principles
EEV    European Embedded Value
EoY    End of year
EVLI    Embedded value life insurance
FA    Fixed annuities
Fee    Fee business
FS    Free surplus
GICs    Guaranteed investment contracts and funding agreements
IFRS    International Financial Reporting Standards
IRR    Internal rate of return
LAP    Life for the account of policyholders
PVDE    Present value of distributable earnings
PVFP    Present value of future profits
PVNBP    Present value of new business premiums
RS    Required surplus
TEV    Total embedded value
TL    Traditional life
VA    Variable annuities
ViF    Value of in-force business
VNB    Value of new business
VOBA    Value of business acquired

 

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Disclaimer

 

Cautionary note regarding Regulation G (non-GAAP measure)

This press release includes a non-GAAP financial measure. Embedded value is not based on DAP, which are used to prepare and report AEGON’s 2004 financial statements and should not be viewed as a substitute for DAP financial measures. In the attached report the embedded value life insurance and the total embedded value are reconciled to shareholders’ equity of EUR 14.4 billion as reported in AEGON’s annual accounts over the year 2004. AEGON believes the non-GAAP measure shown herein, together with the GAAP information, provides a meaningful measure for the investing public to evaluate AEGON’s business relative to the businesses of our peers.

 

Cautionary note regarding the use of local currencies and constant currency exchange rates

This press release contains certain information about our results and financial condition in USD for the Americas, GBP for the United Kingdom, HUF for Hungary and NTD for Taiwan because those businesses operate and are managed primarily in those currencies. Certain comparative information presented on a constant currency basis eliminates the effects of changes in currency exchange rates. None of this information is a substitute for or superior to financial information about us presented in euro, which is the currency of our primary financial statements.

 

Cautionary note regarding forward looking statements

The statements contained in this press release that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as ‘believe’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’, ‘may’, ‘expect’, ‘anticipate’, ‘predict’, ‘project’, ‘counting on’, ‘plan’, ‘continue’, ‘want’, ‘forecast’, ‘should’, ‘would’, ‘is confident’ and ‘will’ and similar expressions as they relate to us are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of their dates.

 

All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations, including, but not limited to, the following:

v Changes in general economic conditions, particularly in the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom;
v Changes in the performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, including:
    The frequency and severity of defaults by issuers in our fixed income investment portfolios; and
  The effects of corporate bankruptcies and/or accounting restatements on the financial markets and the resulting decline in value of equity and debt securities we hold;
v The frequency and severity of insured loss events;
v Changes affecting mortality, morbidity and other factors that may affect the profitability of our insurance products;
v Changes affecting interest rate levels and continuing low interest rate levels and rapidly changing interest rate levels;
v Changes affecting currency exchange rates, including the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP exchange rates;
v Increasing levels of competition in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and emerging markets;
v Changes in laws and regulations, particularly those affecting our operations, the products we sell and the attractiveness of certain products to our consumers;
v Regulatory changes relating to the insurance industry in the jurisdictions in which we operate;
v Acts of God, acts of terrorism and acts of war;
v Changes in the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments;
v Litigation or regulatory action that could require us to pay significant damages or change the way we do business;
v Customer responsiveness to both new products and distribution channels;
v Competitive, legal, regulatory, or tax changes that affect the distribution cost of or demand for our products;
v Our failure to achieve anticipated levels of earnings or operational efficiencies as well as other cost saving initiatives;
v The impact on our reported financial results and financial condition as a result of our adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards.

 

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AEGON N.V.

Group Corporate Affairs & Investor Relations

 

The Hague, the Netherlands     
Analysts & Investors    +31 (0)70 344 83 05
Media    +31 (0)70 344 88 93
E-mail    gca-ir@aegon.com
Baltimore, the United States     
Analysts & Investors    +1 877 548 9668 (toll free) /+1 410 576 4577
Media    +1 410 576 4526
E-mail    ir@aegonusa.com

 

Website: www.aegon.com

 

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