EX-99 2 ex99.htm PG&E CORPORATION MATERIALS USED IN INVESTOR MEETINGS ON MARCH 5, 2009 ex99.htm
UBS Natural Gas,
Electric Power and Coal
Conference
March 5, 2009
 
 

 
2
 This presentation contains management’s guidance for PG&E Corporation’s 2009, 2010 and 2011 earnings per share from operations, projections of Pacific
 Gas and Electric Company’s (Utility) capital expenditures, rate base and rate base growth, and projections of PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s financing
 needs. These statements and projections, as well as the underlying assumptions, are forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations
 which management believes are reasonable. These statements and assumptions are necessarily subject to various risks and uncertainties, the realization or
 resolution of which may be outside of management's control. Actual results may differ materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially
 include:
 the Utility’s ability to manage capital expenditures and its operating and maintenance expenses within authorized levels;
 the outcome of pending and future regulatory proceedings and whether the Utility is able to timely recover its costs through rates;
 the adequacy and price of electricity and natural gas supplies, and the ability of the Utility to manage and respond to the volatility of the electricity and natural gas markets,
 including the ability of the Utility and its counterparties to post or return collateral;
 the effect of weather, storms, earthquakes, fires, floods, disease, other natural disasters, explosions, accidents, mechanical breakdowns, acts of terrorism, and other events or
 hazards on the Utility’s facilities and operations, its customers, and third parties on which the Utility relies;
 the potential impacts of climate change on the Utility’s electricity and natural gas businesses;
 changes in customer demand for electricity and natural gas resulting from unanticipated population growth or decline, general economic and financial market conditions,
 changes in technology, including the development of alternative energy sources, or other reasons;
 operating performance of Diablo Canyon, the availability of nuclear fuel, the occurrence of unplanned outages at Diablo Canyon or the temporary or permanent cessation of
 operations at Diablo Canyon;
 whether the Utility can maintain the cost savings it has recognized from operating efficiencies it has achieved and identify and successfully implement additional sustainable
 cost-saving measures;
 whether the Utility incurs substantial expense to improve the safety and reliability of its electric and natural gas systems;
 whether the Utility achieves the California Public Utilities Commission’s (CPUC) energy efficiency targets and recognizes any incentives the Utility may earn in a timely manner;
 the impact of changes in federal or state laws, or their interpretation, on energy policy and the regulation of utilities and their holding companies;
 the impact of changing wholesale electric or gas market rules, including new rules of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) to restructure the California
 wholesale electricity market;
 how the CPUC administers the conditions imposed on PG&E Corporation when it became the Utility’s holding company;
 the extent to which PG&E Corporation or the Utility incurs costs and liabilities in connection with litigation that are not recoverable through rates, from insurance, or from other
 third parties;
 the ability of PG&E Corporation, the Utility, and counterparties, to access capital markets and other sources of credit in a timely manner on acceptable terms, especially given
 the recent deteriorating conditions in the economy and financial markets;
 the impact of environmental laws and regulations and the costs of compliance and remediation;
 the effect of municipalization, direct access, community choice aggregation, or other forms of bypass;
 the impact of changes in federal or state tax laws, policies, or regulations; and
 other factors and risks discussed in PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s 2008 Annual Report on Form 10-K and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange
 Commission.
Cautionary Language Regarding Forward-Looking
Statements
 
 

 
3
PCG Investment Case
 PCG is focused on better service to our customers,
 which is the foundation of our growth:
  Substantial CapEx Program
  Manageable financing requirements
  Decoupled revenues
  Pass-through of procurement costs
  11.45% weighted ROE on 52% equity
  Low carbon footprint
 
 

 
Vision and Values
 
 

 
5
2009 Business Priorities
Improve reliability
Improve safety and human performance
Deliver on budget, on plan, and on purpose
Drive customer satisfaction
Champion effective regulatory and legislative policies
 
 

 
6
PG&E Financial Strategy
 Achieve solid, sustained EPS growth
 
 Actively manage cash flow
 
 Maintain opportunistic financing approach
 
 

 
7
Capital Expenditure Outlook
Low Case $3.6B
Low Case $3.6B
High Case $3.7B
High Case $3.7B
Low Case $3.4B
Low Case $3.4B
High Case $3.8B
High Case $3.8B
Low Case $3.3B
Low Case $3.3B
High Case $4.8B
High Case $4.8B
2.0
2.5
 3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
$ B
Low
Low
 High
 High
Prior Forecast
Prior Forecast
CapEx Outlook
Prior vs. Current Forecast
CapEx Outlook
Prior vs. Current Forecast
$3.3B
$3.3B
$3.0B
$3.0B
$3.0B
$3.0B
$3.7B
$3.7B
Actual
 
 

 
8
Capital Expenditure Outlook
2009
2010
2011
Low Case
Total CapEx of $3.6B
Includes:
  CPUC Basic CapEx of $3.0B
  Elec. Trans. CapEx of $600MM
Does not include:
  SmartMeter Program Upgrade
  Cornerstone Program
  Renewable Generation
  BC Transmission / Pacific
  Connector Gas Pipeline
Total CapEx of $3.4B
Includes:
  CPUC Basic CapEx of $2.6B
  Elec. Trans. CapEx of $800MM
Does not include:
  SmartMeter Program Upgrade
  Cornerstone Program
  Renewable Generation
  BC Transmission / Pacific
  Connector Gas Pipeline
 
Total CapEx of $3.3B
Includes:
  CPUC Basic CapEx of $2.45B
  Elec. Trans. CapEx of $850MM
Does not include:
  SmartMeter Program Upgrade
  Cornerstone Program
  Renewable Generation
  BC Transmission / Pacific
  Connector Gas Pipeline
 
High Case
Total CapEx of $3.7B
Includes:
  CPUC Basic CapEx of $3.0B
  Elec. Trans. CapEx of $600MM
  SmartMeter Program Upgrade
  Cornerstone Program
  Renewable Generation
 Does not include:
  BC Transmission / Pacific
  Connector Gas Pipeline
Total CapEx of $3.8B
Includes:
  CPUC Basic CapEx of $2.6B
  Elec. Trans. CapEx of $800MM
  SmartMeter Program Upgrade
  Cornerstone Program
  Renewable Generation
Does not include:
  BC Transmission / Pacific
  Connector Gas Pipeline
Total CapEx of $4.8B
Includes:
  CPUC Basic CapEx of $3.1B
  Elec. Trans. CapEx of $1.0B
  SmartMeter Program Upgrade
  Cornerstone Program
  Renewable Generation
Does not include:
  BC Transmission / Pacific
  Connector Gas Pipeline
Spending Included in Low Case and High Case
Spending Included in Low Case and High Case
 
 

 
9
CapEx Low and High Cases
- 2011 GRC Category Capital Expenditures
- 2011 GRC Category Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditure Forecast ($MM)
Capital Expenditure Forecast ($MM)
 
 

 
10
 Generation
  Prior RFO Shortfalls
  RFO for 2006-2016 issued April 2008 for 800-1200 MW
  Additional renewable generation investment opportunities
 
 Electric Transmission & Gas Pipelines
  Additional transmission to reach renewable generation
  B.C. Transmission Line
  Pacific Connector Gas Pipeline
Additional Capital Opportunities
 
 

 
11
* Projected 2008-2011 rate base is not adjusted for the impact of the carrying cost credit that primarily results from the second series of the Energy
 Recovery Bonds. Earnings will be reduced by an amount equal to the deferred tax balance associated with the Energy Recovery Bonds regulatory
 asset, multiplied by the Utility's equity ratio and by its equity return. This rate base offset carrying cost declines to zero when the taxes are fully paid in
 2012.
Weighted Average Annual Rate Base*
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
$ B
Rate Base Growth
Low
Low
Low Case $20.1B
Low Case $20.1B
High Case $20.3B
High Case $20.3B
Low Case $22.1B
Low Case $22.1B
High Case $22.4B
High Case $22.4B
Low Case $24.3B
Low Case $24.3B
High Case $25.4B
High Case $25.4B
$20.4B
$20.4B
Prior Forecast
Prior Forecast
$23.9B
$23.9B
$18.3B
$18.3B
Actual
 
 

 
12
Energy Efficiency Incentive Opportunities
$41.5MM
$41.5MM
 
 

 
13
Operational Changes and Efficiencies
Low
Low
High
High
Low
Low
High
High
Low Case $50MM
Low Case $50MM
High Case $60MM
High Case $60MM
Low Case $50MM
Low Case $50MM
High Case $60MM
High Case $60MM
$58MM
$58MM
 
 

 
Impact to Cash Flow from Tax
Low
Low
High
High
Low
Low
High
High
Low Case $200M
High Case $640M
Low Case ($90M)
High Case ($90M)
14
 
 

 
15
2011
2007
Actual
EPS Guidance
$3.85
2008
Actual
2009
2010
$2.78
$2.95
$3.65
Low
 High
Low
 High
Low
 High
$3.50
$3.35
$3.25
$3.15
Earnings per Share from Operations
 
 

 
16
Cash Flow and Equity Needs
Financing Needs 2009 - 2011 ($MM)
Financing Needs 2009 - 2011 ($MM)
Projected Sources of Equity
Projected Sources of Equity
2009 - 2011
2009 - 2011
* Excludes cash from Energy Recovery Bond revenues
 
 

 
Bundled System Average Electric Rate
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
14.4¢
Bundled
CPI
17
Electric Rate Forecast
 
 

 
Residential Electric Bills
(1) Edison Electric Institute, Statistical Yearbook, Year 2007 (latest data available).
18
 
 

 
19
 Sustainable, comparable dividend
 
 Payout ratio range of 50% - 70%
 
 Dividend growth in line with EPS growth.
Dividend Policy
Historical Quarterly Dividends per Share
 
 

 
20
Financial Assumptions 2009-2011
GUIDANCE REFLECTS:
 
 Capital expenditures consistent with low and high case ranges
 CPUC authorized ROE of at least 11.35% and Utility earns at least
 12% on FERC projected rate base
 
 Ratemaking capital structure maintained at 52% equity
 
 CEE incentives, operational changes and efficiencies and tax cash
 flow consistent with low and high case ranges
 Current conditions for debt and equity markets
 Resolution of FERC generator claims in 2009-2011 results in
 financing needs
 
 

 
PG&E Ownership of Renewables
Proposed Solar PV Program
  Up to 250 MW of Utility-owned PV generation
  Up to 250 MW of standard-offer PV PPAs
 
 

 
22
Diablo Canyon Steam Generator Replacement
$700 Million approved capital investment
Unit 2 replacement completed in 69 days in 2008
Unit 1 replacement began January 25, 2009
 
 

 
23
Colusa
Colusa Generating Station
 
 

 
24
Humboldt
Humboldt Bay Project
 
 

 
25
Category
2009
2010
2011
System Expansion/Congestion Relief
$230M
$400M
$590M
Maintenance and Replacement
$280M
$290M
$310M
Automation Technology Expansion
$70M
$90M
$110M
New Generation Interconnection
$20M
$20M
$40M
Total
$600M
$800M
$1050M
Transmission Investments
*All numbers are approximate
 
 

 
26
$1.2 - $1.5 Billion annual investment
  Infrastructure main spend categories:
  Substations
  Poles and Maintenance
  New Customer Connects
  Capacity and Reliability
Distribution Investments
 
 

 
27
SmartMeterTM
Cumulative Meters Installed
Cumulative Meters Installed
1.7 million
1.7 million
1,656
1,656
2006
273,000
273,000
2007
2008
2009 PLAN
4.5 million
4.5 million
Installation of meters continues
Awaiting CPUC approval for Upgrade
 
 

 
28
PCG Investment Case
 PCG is focused on better service to our customers,
 which is the foundation of our growth:
  Substantial CapEx Program
  Manageable financing requirements
  Decoupled revenues
  Pass-through of procurement costs
  11.45% weighted ROE on 52% equity
  Low carbon footprint
 
 

 
 
 

 
* Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows
 investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not
 reflect the normal course of operations.
 
** Items impacting comparability reconcile earnings from operations with consolidated net income as reported in accordance
 with GAAP. For the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2008, PG&E Corporation recognized $257 million of
 net income resulting from a settlement of tax audits for tax years 2001 through 2004. Of this amount, $154 million was
 related to PG&E Corporation’s former subsidiary, National Energy & Gas Transmission, Inc., and was recorded as income
 from discontinued operations
EPS on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
$2.95
Items Impacting Comparability**
 0.68
EPS on a GAAP Basis
$3.63
2008
30
2008 EPS - Reg G Reconciliation
 
 

 
(1) Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows investors to compare the core
 underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not reflect the normal course of operations.
(2) Tentative agreement to resolve federal tax refund claims related to tax years 1998 and 1999.
(3) Anticipated recovery of costs incurred in connection with efforts to determine the market value of hydroelectric generation facilities.
(4) Forecasted cost to accelerate the performance of system-wide gas integrity surveys and remedial work.
Guidance Range
Reg G reconciliation also provided on the PG&E Corporation website: www.pge-corp.com
31
EPS Guidance - Reg G Reconciliation