EX-99 2 exhibit99.htm PG&E CORPORATION MATERIALS USED AT SANFORD BERNSTEIN STRATEGIC DECISIONS CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK, N.Y. ON MAY 27, 2009 exhibit99.htm
Sanford Bernstein
Strategic Decisions Conference
May 27, 2009
 
 

 
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)
PG&E SERVICE AREA
 IN CALIFORNIA
2
 
 

 
3-year Total Shareholder Return
Merchant Generator Group
Merchant Generator Group
AES Corporation
Dynegy Inc.
Mirant Corporation
Reliant Energy  
AES Corporation
Dynegy Inc.
Mirant Corporation
Reliant Energy  
Comparator Group
Comparator Group
Ameren Corporation Consolidated Edison  NiSource Inc.  Southern Company
American Electric Power Entergy Corporation  Pinnacle West Capital TECO Energy 
Centerpoint Energy FPL Group Progress Energy Xcel Energy Inc.
Ameren Corporation Consolidated Edison  NiSource Inc.  Southern Company
American Electric Power Entergy Corporation  Pinnacle West Capital TECO Energy 
Centerpoint Energy FPL Group Progress Energy Xcel Energy Inc.
3
 
 

 
1-year Total Shareholder Return
4
 
 

 
5
PCG Investment Case
 PCG is focused on better service to our customers,
 which is the foundation of our growth:
  Substantial Cap Ex Program
  Manageable financing requirements
  Decoupled revenues
  Pass-through of procurement costs
  11.45% weighted ROE on 52% equity
  Low carbon footprint
 
 

 
Vision and Values
 
 

 
7
2009 Business Priorities
  Improve reliability
  Improve safety and human performance
  Deliver on budget, on plan, and on purpose
  Drive customer satisfaction
  Champion effective regulatory and legislative policies
 
 

 
8
Key Business Drivers
 Pre-approved CapEx
  Upgraded SmartMeters
  Electric & Gas Distribution
  Poles and Substations
  Generation
  Transmission
  System Expansion & Replacement
 
 

 
9
Capital Expenditure Outlook
Low Case $3.6B
Low Case $3.6B
High Case $3.7B
High Case $3.7B
Low Case $3.4B
Low Case $3.4B
High Case $3.8B
High Case $3.8B
Low Case $3.3B
Low Case $3.3B
High Case $4.8B
High Case $4.8B
2.0
2.5
 3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
$ B
Low
Low
 High
 High
Low
Low
 High
 High
Low
Low
 High
 High
$3.7B
$3.7B
CapEx Outlook
CapEx Outlook
Actual
 
 

 
10
* Actual 2008 and projected 2009-2011 rate base is not adjusted for the impact of the carrying cost credit that primarily results from the second series of
 the Energy Recovery Bonds. Earnings will be reduced by an amount equal to the deferred tax balance associated with the Energy Recovery Bonds
 regulatory asset, multiplied by the Utility's equity ratio and by its equity return. This rate base offset carrying cost declines to zero when the taxes are
 fully paid in 2012.
Weighted Average Annual Rate Base*
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
$ B
Rate Base Growth
Low
Low
 High
 High
Low
Low
 High
 High
Low
Low
Low Case $20.1B
Low Case $20.1B
High Case $20.3B
High Case $20.3B
Low Case $22.1B
Low Case $22.1B
High Case $22.4B
High Case $22.4B
Low Case $24.3B
Low Case $24.3B
High Case $25.4B
High Case $25.4B
$18.2B
$18.2B
Actual
 
 

 
11
EPS Guidance
* Reg G reconciliation to GAAP for 2008 EPS from Operations, and 2009-2011 EPS Guidance available in Appendix and at www.pge-corp.com
 
 

 
12
Financial Assumptions 2009-2011
GUIDANCE REFLECTS:
 
 Capital expenditures consistent with low and high case ranges
 CPUC authorized ROE of at least 11.35% and Utility earns at least
 12% on FERC projected rate base
 
 Ratemaking capital structure maintained at 52% equity
 
 CEE incentives, operational changes and efficiencies and tax cash
 flow consistent with low and high case ranges
 Current conditions for debt and equity markets
 Resolution of FERC generator claims in 2009-2011 results in
 financing needs
 
 

 
13
 Sustainable, comparable dividend
 
 Payout ratio range of 50% - 70%
 
 Dividend growth in line with EPS growth.
Dividend Policy
Historical Quarterly Dividends per Share
 
 

 
14
Key Regulatory Filings
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011 General Rate Case
Summer 2009:
Prepare and File
Notice of Intent
Summer 2009:
Prepare and File
Notice of Intent
Summer 2010:
Hearings
January 2011:
Rates go into effect
2009
2009
2010
2010
Transmission Owner Rate Cases
Summer 2009:
File TO 12
Summer 2009:
File TO 12
Fall 2009: TO 11
Settlement
Approved
Fall 2009: TO 11
Settlement
Approved
Summer 2010:
File TO 13
Summer 2010:
File TO 13
2010
2010
2011 Cost of Capital Application
Spring 2010:
Initial Filing
January 2011:
Rates go into effect
2011
2011
 
 

 
15
Legislative Action: GHG
Recent Legislative Activity:
 California AB 32
 Federal activity ongoing
PG&E Supports:
 A cap and trade approach
 Fair allocation of credits
 Recognition of prior actions
 
 

 
16
PCG: Outlook for the Future
Leading renewable and energy efficiency
programs…
… and limiting risk from new
carbon legislation
… and limiting risk from new
carbon legislation
 
 

 
17
PCG Investment Case
 PCG is focused on better service to our customers,
 which is the foundation of our growth:
  Substantial Cap Ex Program
  Manageable financing requirements
  Decoupled revenues
  Pass-through of procurement costs
  11.45% weighted ROE on 52% equity
  Low carbon footprint
 
 

 
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 This presentation contains management’s guidance for PG&E Corporation’s 2009, 2010 and 2011 earnings per share from operations, projections of Pacific
 Gas and Electric Company’s (Utility) capital expenditures, rate base and rate base growth, and projections of PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s financing
 needs. These statements and projections, as well as the underlying assumptions, are forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations
 which management believes are reasonable. These statements and assumptions are necessarily subject to various risks and uncertainties, the realization or
 resolution of which may be outside of management's control. Actual results may differ materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially
 include:
 the Utility’s ability to manage capital expenditures and its operating and maintenance expenses within authorized levels;
 the outcome of pending and future regulatory proceedings and whether the Utility is able to timely recover its costs through rates;
 the adequacy and price of electricity and natural gas supplies, and the ability of the Utility to manage and respond to the volatility of the electricity and natural gas markets,
 including the ability of the Utility and its counterparties to post or return collateral;
 the effect of weather, storms, earthquakes, fires, floods, disease, other natural disasters, explosions, accidents, mechanical breakdowns, disruptions of information technology
 or computer systems, acts of terrorism, and other events or hazards on the Utility’s facilities and operations, its customers, and third parties on which the Utility relies;
 the potential impacts of climate change on the Utility’s electricity and natural gas businesses;
 changes in customer demand for electricity and natural gas resulting from unanticipated population growth or decline, general economic and financial market conditions,
 changes in technology, including the development of alternative energy sources, or other reasons;
 operating performance of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant (“Diablo Canyon”), the availability of nuclear fuel, the occurrence of unplanned outages at Diablo Canyon or the
 temporary or permanent cessation of operations at Diablo Canyon;
 whether the Utility can maintain the cost savings it has recognized from operating efficiencies it has achieved and identify and successfully implement additional sustainable
 cost-saving measures;
 whether the Utility incurs substantial expense to improve the safety and reliability of its electric and natural gas systems;
 whether the Utility achieves the California Public Utilities Commission’s (CPUC) energy efficiency targets and recognizes any incentives the Utility may earn in a timely manner;
 the impact of changes in federal or state laws, or their interpretation, on energy policy and the regulation of utilities and their holding companies;
 the impact of changing wholesale electric or gas market rules, including new rules of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) to restructure the California
 wholesale electricity market;
 how the CPUC administers the conditions imposed on PG&E Corporation when it became the Utility’s holding company;
 the extent to which PG&E Corporation or the Utility incurs costs and liabilities in connection with litigation that are not recoverable through rates, from insurance, or from other
 third parties;
 the ability of PG&E Corporation, the Utility, and counterparties, to access capital markets and other sources of credit in a timely manner on acceptable terms, especially given
 the recent deteriorating conditions in the economy and financial markets;
 the impact of environmental laws and regulations and the costs of compliance and remediation;
 the effect of municipalization, direct access, community choice aggregation, or other forms of bypass;
 the outcome of federal or state tax audits and the impact of changes in federal or state tax laws, policies, or regulations; and
 other factors and risks discussed in PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s 2008 Annual Report on Form 10-K and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange
 Commission.
Cautionary Language Regarding Forward-Looking
Statements
 
 

 
 
 

 
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CPUC Cost of Capital Mechanism
Moody’s Utility Bond Yield Index
  Current Avg.
Rating (Oct. 08 - Apr. 09)
A 6.76
Baa 8.19
Benchmark
(Oct. 06 - Sept. 07)
 Rating Benchmark
A   6.02
Baa 6.26
If the Moody’s Utility Bond
Yield Index average for
October 2008 - September
2009 moves above 100 basis
points from the benchmark …
Then our authorized ROE
(11.35%) will move up one-half
of the change in the index and
cost of debt is reset to
embedded plus projected cost
 
 

 
2008 EPS - Reg G Reconciliation
* Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows
 investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not
 reflect the normal course of operations.
 
** Items impacting comparability reconcile earnings from operations with consolidated net income as reported in accordance
 with GAAP. For the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2008, PG&E Corporation recognized $257 million of
 net income resulting from a settlement of tax audits for tax years 2001 through 2004. Of this amount, $154 million was
 related to PG&E Corporation’s former subsidiary, National Energy & Gas Transmission, Inc., and was recorded as income
 from discontinued operations
EPS on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
$2.95
Items Impacting Comparability**
 0.68
EPS on a GAAP Basis
$3.63
2008
21
 
 

 
EPS Guidance - Reg G Reconciliation
(1) Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows investors to compare the core
 underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not reflect the normal course of operations.
(2) Items impacting comparability reconcile earnings from operations with consolidated Income Available for Common Shareholders as reported in
 accordance with GAAP.
(3) Tentative agreement to resolve federal tax refund claims related to tax years 1998 and 1999.
(4) Recovery of costs incurred in connection with efforts to determine the market value of hydroelectric generation facilities.
(5) Forecasted cost to accelerate the performance of system-wide gas integrity surveys and associated remedial work.
Guidance Range
Guidance Range
Guidance Range
Reg G reconciliation also provided on the PG&E Corporation website: www.pge-corp.com
Reg G reconciliation also provided on the PG&E Corporation website: www.pge-corp.com
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