EX-99 3 southmichex992_101104.htm EXHIBIT 99.2 Southern Michigan Bancorp, Inc. Exhibit 99.2 to SC 13E-3 - 10/12/04

EXHIBIT 99.2

October 6, 2004

CONFIDENTIAL




Southern Michigan Bancorp, Inc.


Michigan Bank & Trust

Valuation as of August 30, 2004




Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G










CONFIDENTIAL


Michigan Bank & Trust


 


Table of Contents



 

1.

Valuation Opinion Letter

 

 

 

 

2.

Valuation Summary

 

 

 

 

3.

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

 

 

 

 

4.

Recent Trading Analysis

 

 

 

 

5.

Analysis of Comparable Companies

 

 

 

 

6.

Analysis of Comparable Acquisitions







Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 2






CONFIDENTIAL


Michigan Bank & Trust








1.     Valuation Opinion Letter








Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 3











October 6, 2004


Board of Directors
Southern Michigan Bancorp, Inc.
51. W. Pearl Street
Coldwater, Michigan 49036

Attn:  Mr. John H. Castle

Dear Board of Directors:

PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

Southern Michigan Bancorp, Inc. ("Southern Michigan" or the "Company") has engaged Donnelly Penman & Partners ("DP&P") to render its opinion (the "Opinion") with respect to the fair market per share value of the Company's common stock as of August 30, 2004 in the event of a recapitalization through a reverse stock split or "squeeze out" merger transaction.

DP&P is a regional investment banking firm of recognized standing. As part of our investment banking services, we are regularly engaged in the valuation of corporate entities on a stand-alone basis or in connection with capital raising and merger and acquisition transactions. No limitations were imposed by the Company upon DP&P with respect to the investigations made or procedures followed by DP&P in rendering its Opinion.

In arriving at our Opinion, we have:

I.

Reviewed the Annual Reports of the Company for the years ended December 31, 2002 through 2003 as well as interim financials through July 31, 2004;

 

 

II.

Reviewed reports from the Board of Directors meetings held during the months of July and August, 2004;

 

 

III.

Reviewed the 2003-2004 strategic plan;

 

 

IV.

Compared certain financial characteristics of the Company to certain publicly held companies we deemed relevant;

 

 

V.

Reviewed current banking industry conditions and trends concerning the valuation of recent mergers and acquisitions;

 

 

VI.

Conducted discussions with the senior management of the Company concerning the business and future prospects of the Company;

 

 

VII.

Prepared a discounted cash flow analysis of the Company based on projections derived from discussions with and deemed reasonable by management of the Company; and




Mr. John H. Castle
October 6, 2004
Page 2

VIII.

Reviewed such other data, including financial and industry data, performed such other analyses and taken into account such other matters as we deemed necessary or appropriate.

In connection with rendering its Opinion to Southern Michigan, DP&P performed a variety of financial analyses, which are summarized below. DP&P believes that its analyses must be considered as a whole and that selecting portions of its analyses and the factors considered by it, without consideration of all factors and analyses, could create a misleading view of the analyses and the processes underlying DP&P's Opinion. DP&P arrived at its Opinion based on the results of all the analyses it undertook, assessed as a whole, and it did not draw conclusions from or with regard to any one method of analysis. The preparation of a valuation is a complex process involving subjective judgments, and is not necessarily susceptible to partial analysis or summary description.

DP&P did not make or obtain any independent evaluation, valuation or appraisal of the assets or liabilities of Southern Michigan, nor were we furnished with such materials. DP&P has not reviewed any individual credit files of the Company and has assumed, without independent verification, that the reported allowances for credit losses are adequate to cover such losses.

With respect to the comparable company analysis and comparable merger transaction analysis summarized below, no public company utilized as a comparison is identical to Southern Michigan, and such analyses necessarily involves complex considerations and judgments concerning the differences in financial and operating characteristics of the financial institutions and other factors that could affect the acquisition or public trading values of the financial institutions concerned. The forecasted financial information furnished by the Company's management contained in or underlying DP&P's analyses are not necessarily indicative of future results or values, which may be significantly more or less favorable than such forecasts and estimates. The forecasts and estimates were based on numerous variables and assumptions that are inherently uncertain, including without limitation factors related to general economic and competitive conditions. In that regard, DP&P assumed, wit! h the Company's consent, that the financial forecasts had been reasonably prepared by management on a basis reflecting the best currently available judgments of management, and that such forecasts will be realized in the amounts and at the times contemplated thereby.

Estimates of values of financial institutions or assets do not purport to be appraisals or necessarily reflect the prices at which financial institutions or their securities actually may be sold. Accordingly, actual results could vary significantly from those assumed in the financial forecasts and related analyses. The analyses performed by DP&P were assigned a weighting based on DP&P's opinion of their relative comparability and significance with regard to the specific characteristics of Southern Michigan.









Mr. John H. Castle
October 6, 2004
Page 3

COMPANY BACKGROUND

Southern Michigan Bancorp, Inc. is a registered bank holding company incorporated under the laws of the State of Michigan, headquartered in Coldwater, Michigan. The Company was formed in 1982 for the purpose of acquiring all of the outstanding shares of Southern Michigan National Bank, which it did in November, 1982. In December, 1992, Southern Michigan National Bank converted its charter to that of a Michigan state banking corporation and changed its name to, Southern Michigan Bank & Trust (the "Bank"), with its main office located at 51 West Pearl Street, Coldwater, Michigan 49036. The Bank operates 10 branch offices in the primarily rural areas of Branch, Hillsdale, and Calhoun counties in southwestern Michigan. In addition to the operations of the Bank described below, the Company owns and leases certain real estate to the Bank and third parties; and SMB&T Financial Services, Inc., a subsidiary of the Bank, has been established to provide insurance and investm! ent services, which services currently consist of the sale of certain insurance products to the Bank and limited sales of insurance products to the public. None of such activities are significant to the operations of the Company. In August, 2000, SMB Mortgage Company was established as a subsidiary of the Bank. At that time all residential mortgage loans held by the Bank and all residential mortgage loan applications in the pipeline were transferred to SMB Mortgage Company. All of the residential mortgage activities previously conducted by the Bank were undertaken by SMB Mortgage Company.

Banking Services

The Bank offers a full range of banking services to individuals, businesses, governmental entities, and other institutions. These services include checking, savings, and NOW accounts, time deposits, safe deposit facilities, and money transfers. The Bank's lending operations provide secured and unsecured commercial and personal loans, real estate loans, consumer installment loans, lines of credit, and accounts receivable financing.

The Bank's Trust Department offers a wide variety of fiduciary services to individuals, businesses, not-for-profit organizations, and governmental entities, including services as trustee for personal, corporate, pension, profit sharing, and other employee benefit trusts. The Bank also provides security custodial services as an agent, acts as the personal representative for estates, and as a fiscal, paying and escrow agent for corporate customers and governmental entities.

Residential mortgage loans are originated by SMB Mortgage Company. Some residential mortgage loans are retained by SMB Mortgage Company while others are sold to investors in the secondary market. When SMB Mortgage Company sells originated mortgage loans to investors, it makes a determination to either retain or sell the servicing rights to such loans.

The Bank also offers securities brokerage services through an unaffiliated broker. The Bank maintains correspondent banking relationships with several larger banks, which correspondent relationships concern check clearing operations, transfer of funds, loan participations, the purchase and sale of federal funds, and other similar services.




Mr. John H. Castle
October 6, 2004
Page 4

Southern Michigan is traded through the OTC Bulletin Board Exchange under the symbol SOMC. Its shares are traded on a limited basis through the brokers of Hilliard Lyons, Inc., Howe Barnes Investments, Inc., Robert Baird & Co., Kent King Securities Co., Inc. As of May 4, 2004, there were 517 holders of the Company's common stock. The closing price of the stock was $24.05 on August 30, 2004.

The Bank has a main office and branch in Coldwater, Michigan, along with branches in Union City, Hillsdale, Tekonsha, Camden, Battle Creek, North Adams, and Athens. Union City and Coldwater are located in Branch County; Battle Creek, Athens, and Tekonsha are located in Calhoun County; and Hillsdale, Camden, and North Adams are located in Hillsdale County. According to the United States Census Bureau, the median household income in Branch, Calhoun, and Hillsdale is $38,760, $38,918, and $40,396 respectively.


INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Commercial, retail and mortgage banking are highly competitive businesses in which the Company receives competition from both bank and non-bank institutions. As a result of the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999, the number and types of depository institution competitors have substantially increased.

Southern Michigan faces increased competition from finance companies, credit unions and bank and non-bank mortgage lenders. These companies may offer higher lending limits and other non-traditional services that Southern Michigan does not currently offer. Some of the Company's competitors also can leverage greater resources in order to gain a larger business presence within Southern Michigan's target service areas.

While being relatively small can be a disadvantage, there are certain potential benefits as well. Community banks that make customer service a priority may be able to gain an advantage with customers in their local market that feel neglected by the larger banks. Because the larger banks often seek large homogenous markets and products, niche opportunities are created for smaller institutions that seek to fill the needs of the underserved. Also, the relative difference in size can often correspond to a more agile management team that can respond more quickly to the ever changing competitive environment.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts, as outlined in the July 28, 2004 Federal Reserve "Beige Book,"1 indicate that economic growth continued to expand, although some Districts reported that the rate of growth moderated.


____________________
1 Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District, July 28, 2004.




Mr. John H. Castle
October 6, 2004
Page 5

Consumer lending activity rose moderately with reports that mortgage originations are strong. Five districts reported increases in their banks' residential real estate lending: Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and St. Louis. Several of these districts indicated that although overall residential real estate lending had risen, the volume of refinancings fell further recently. Both the New York and San Francisco Districts saw borrowing by homebuyers decline, but San Francisco noted that the levels of residential real estate lending in its district remained high.

Borrowing by commercial clients rose moderately as reported by most districts, with the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reporting rising commercial borrowing in recent weeks. New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, however, noted that the increases in their districts were modest. In the Chicago District, commercial borrowing was characterized as flat.

Most Districts reported little change in loan delinquencies. The Cleveland District noted that delinquency rates remained largely unchanged in recent weeks, and applicant credit quality was characterized as stable or slightly improving. Likewise, the New York District reported lower delinquency rates across all loan categories. In the Chicago District, lenders note that household credit quality continues to improve and there were no changes in loan standards and terms. Moderate increases in credit card lending were reported in the Philadelphia District, while the San Francisco District reports good credit quality on existing loans.

The Livingston Study2, based on survey responses of 26 participants from banking, industry, academia and trade associations, forecasts economic growth and falling unemployment through mid-2005 in its June 2004 report. The results of this most recent release project real Gross Domestic Product ("GDP") will rise at an annual rate of 4.5 percent in the first half of 2004, 4.1 percent in the second half of 2004, and continue at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the first half of 2005. The unemployment rate is expected to fall from 5.6 percent in June 2004 to 5.4 percent in December 2004 and then continue to decline, to 5.2 percent, by the middle of 2005. Interest rates on the three-month Treasuries are expected to rise from 1.3 percent in June 2004 to 1.8 percent at year-end 2004, then rise throughout 2005, ending the year at 3.4 percent. Long-term interest rates are also expected to rise over the next two years with a projection to climb from 4.8 percent in June 20! 04 to 5.1 percent by year-end. It is expected to increase further in 2005, finishing the year at 5.6 percent. The participants' views of long-term inflation and output growth have been fairly steady over the last year. The panelists think that real GDP will grow 3.5 percent annually over the next 10 years, the same as in the previous survey. Inflation will average 2.5 percent over the next 10 years, unchanged from the last five surveys dating back to December 2001. For 2004, after-tax corporate profits are expected to rise 15.5 percent, an increase from the December survey's prediction of 14.7 percent. On the other hand, forecasters see corporate profits rising 13.4 percent in 2005, a decrease from the 19.4 percent increase forecast in December. Stock prices (as measured by the S&P 500 index) are forecast to rise in 2004 and 2005. The projection for the S&P 500 at the end of 2005 is about 2.8 percent higher than the previous prediction.

____________________
2 www.phil.frb.org/econ/liv/index.html




Mr. John H. Castle
October 6, 2004
Page 6

VALUATION METHODOLOGY

The following is a brief summary of the analyses performed by DP&P in connection with its Opinion:

(a) Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. DP&P prepared a discounted dividend stream analysis of Southern Michigan, which estimated the future after tax cash flows to shareholders that the Company might produce over the period from September 30, 2004 through December 31, 2008. These estimates were derived from discussions with and deemed reasonable by Southern Michigan's management team. The estimates assumed that Southern Michigan's pre-tax earnings would grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.8% throughout the projection period. This assumes that Southern Michigan continues to grow their business in their home markets with gradual expansion into to new areas. DP&P typically assumes a static interest rate environment and, with the guidance of management has used this key assumption to drive the financial projections of Southern Michigan. DP&P further assumed, with management's guidance, that the Company would make dividend payouts equal to 4! 0% of earnings through the projection period. The resulting dividends were then discounted to a present value using a discount rate of 10.5%, based on Ibbotson Associates3 build up method with an industry discount applicable to commercial banks. Based on the most recent Ibbotson's data the riskless rate is 4.8%, market risk premium is 7.0% and industry specific premium was -1.3%, resulting in a discount rate of 10.5%, which DP&P regards as appropriate given the nature of the company, industry risk and general economic conditions. DP&P also estimated the residual value for Southern Michigan's common stock using a price to tangible book value multiple of 1.78 times, which is an approximation derived from the analysis of tangible book value multiples in comparable transactions (see paragraph d - Comparable Transaction Analysis). This multiple is applied to the Company's estimated tangible book value at December 31, 2008 of $38.2 million. The discounte! d dividend analysis implied a value of $27.19 per share for Southern M ichigan's common stock on a marketable basis. This analysis does not purport to be indicative of actual values or actual future results and does not purport to reflect the prices at which any securities may trade at the present or at any time in the future. DP&P included this analysis because it is a widely used valuation methodology, but noted that the results of such methodology are highly dependent upon the numerous assumptions that must be made, including earnings growth rates, dividend payout rates, terminal values and discount rates.

(b) Historical Trading Multiples. DP&P analyzed the quoted trades listed on the OTC Bulletin Board for Southern Michigan Bancorp, Inc. (SOMC) for varying historical periods. DP&P used a simple average of the closing stock price quoted for a period of 30 and 90 trading days. Only days in which the security actually traded were counted in the simple average. For the past 30 trading days, as of August 30, 2004, the historical average price was $24.05 with a period volume of 15,874 compiled over 13 separate trading days. For the past 90 trading days, as of August 30, 2004,

____________________
3 Ibbotson Associates, "Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation," Valuation Edition 2003 Yearbook




Mr. John H. Castle
October 6, 2004
Page 7

the historical average price was $24.06 with a period volume of 69,950 compiled over 46 separate trading days. It should be noted that volume may reflect "double counting" due to both the buy and sell side of a transaction being counted. In addition, the prices and volumes displayed are per the trading information provided on the www.otcbb.com website and may not reflect all transactions that occurred over the aforementioned time period.

(c) Analysis of Selected Comparable Companies. DP&P compared selected operating results of Southern Michigan to a select group of publicly traded commercial banks headquartered in Michigan. The comparable set had total assets less than $500 million. Some companies meeting these criteria may have been eliminated based on lack of data as generated by SNL Financial - the source for the comparable transactions data. The selected group had approximately the following median values: $242.6 million in total assets, $22.2 million in total equity, a total risk-based capital ratio of 13.27%, LTM return on average assets of .98%, LTM return on average equity of 9.53% and a LTM efficiency ratio of 66.44%. This analysis provided valuation benchmarks including the median price multiples of 1.569 times book value, 1.748 times tangible book value and 16.0 times LTM earnings per share. Applying the median price to book value multiple to Southern Michigan's book value per share ! as of June 30, 2004 resulted in an implied per share value of $22.59 on a marketable basis. Using the same methodology, the implied values provided by application of the relevant multiples to Southern Michigan's June 30, 2004 tangible book value and LTM fully diluted earnings per share were found to be $24.51 per share and $28.80 per share, respectively.

No bank used in the above analyses as a comparison is identical to Southern Michigan. Accordingly, an analysis of the results of the foregoing necessarily involves complex considerations and judgments concerning differences in financial and operating characteristics of the companies and other factors that could affect the public trading values of the Company and the banks to which it is being compared.

(d) Analysis of Comparable Acquisition Transactions. DP&P analyzed bank acquisition transactions announced and/or completed since January 1, 2003. Each selling bank had total assets less than $500 million and was headquartered in Michigan, Indiana or Ohio. This analysis provided an approximate median multiple of 1.779 times price to book value, 1.779 times price to tangible book value, 19.7 times LTM earnings per share and a premium to core deposit metric of 9.8%. Applying the median multiple for price to book value of 1.78 times to Southern Michigan's June 30, 2004 book value per share of $14.40 results in an implied value per share of $25.62 on a control, marketable basis. Using the same methodology, the values implied by applying the relevant multiples to Southern Michigan's tangible book value per share at June 30, 2004 of $14.02 and fully diluted earnings per share for the twelve months ended June 30, 2004 of $1.80 were found to be $24.94 per share and $35! .46 per share, respectively. Applying the median premium to core deposits of 9.8% to Southern Michigan's $222.2 million in core deposits as of June 30, 2004 resulted in a calculated value of $21.8 million. When added to Southern Michigan's book value of $26.3 million as of June 30, 2004 and divided by the 1,829,297 shares outstanding at the same date, the result is an implied value per share of $25.93. Core deposits are defined as all deposits less CDs over $100,000 and brokered deposits.




Mr. John H. Castle
October 6, 2004
Page 8

DP&P notes that no selling bank reviewed was identical to the Company and that, accordingly, any analysis of comparable transactions necessarily involves complex considerations and judgments concerning differences in financial and operating characteristics of the parties to the transactions being compared.

(e) Net Book Value. The net book value or net equity method implies that a company is worth its accumulated retained earnings, or deficit, plus its original capitalization. Net book value is primarily an amount arrived at over a company's existence which reflects accounting history expressed in unadjusted dollars and not the company's potential.

In most going concerns with a viable future it can be demonstrated that these companies would change hands for more than net book value. Book value is only of importance to the extent it provides an adequate base for the continuance of operations. In most instances where a company earns a significant return on its assets (both tangible and intangible), the net book value approach is not representative of the company's intrinsic business value. We have reviewed the book value of the Company's assets in limited detail and have found net book value to be $26.3 million or $14.40 per share as of June 30, 2004.

CONCLUSION

Our Opinion is directed to the Board of Directors of the Company and does not constitute a recommendation to the Board of Directors of the Company or the Company's existing holders of Common Stock. This Opinion has been prepared for the confidential use of the Board of Directors and senior management of the Company and may not be reproduced, summarized, described or referred to or given to any other person without DP&P's prior written consent. Our Opinion is limited solely to the value of the Company's common stock as of August 30, 2004 given the relevant market and company specific information available at the present time.

DP&P will typically utilize either a marketability or minority discount, or combination thereof, to value a minority share of a relatively illiquid company on a comparable basis. No such discounts have been applied to Southern Michigan's common stock in this valuation. If such a discount were applied, it would result in valuation that would be significantly lower than the value assigned below.

On the basis of, and subject to, the foregoing, we are of the opinion that, as of August 30, 2004, the fair market value of the Company's common stock is $26.30 per share.

Sincerely,




DONNELLY PENMAN & PARTNERS







CONFIDENTIAL


Michigan Bank & Trust









2.     Valuation Summary









Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 12





Project H20
Valuation Summary



 

Value
Conclusion


 


Valuation Technique:


 


 


 

 

 

Mgt.
Projections


 


Recent Trading


 


Comparable Company


 


Comparable Acquisition


 


 


 

 

 



DCF


 

30 Day
Trading
Avg.


 

90 Day
Trading
Avg.


 



BV


 



TBV


 



EPS


 



BV


 



TBV


 



EPS


 

Premium
to Core
Deposits


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Value Indication per
Share:


$26.30

 


$27.19

 


$24.05

 


$24.06

 


$22.59

 


$24.51

 


$28.80

 


$25.62

 


$24.94

 


$35.46

 


$25.93

     Weight

100.0%

 

32.0%

 

10.0%

 

10.0%

 

8.0%

 

8.0%

 

8.0%

 

6.0%

 

6.0%

 

6.0%

 

6.0%

Premium to Current
Trading Price ($24.05)


9.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Multiple of Diluted
LTM EPS 6/30/2004
($1.80)



14.6x

 



15.1x

 



13.4x

 



13.4x

 



12.6x

 



13.6x

 



16.0x

 



14.2x

 



13.9x

 



19.7x

 



14.4x

Percentage of Book
Value ($14.40)


182.6%

 


188.8%

 


166.9%

 


167.0%

 


156.8%

 


170.2%

 


200.0%

 


177.9%

 


173.2%

 


246.2%

 


180.0%

Percentage of Tangible
Book Value ($14.02)


187.6%

 


194.0%

 


171.6%

 


171.7%

 


161.2%

 


174.9%

 


205.5%

 


182.8%

 


177.9%

 


253.0%

 


185.0%









Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 13





CONFIDENTIAL


Michigan Bank & Trust









3.     Discounted Cash Flow Analysis









Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 14





Project H20
Discounted Cash Flow Model
Valuation Date:  June 30, 2004

($ in thousands - except per share data)

 

Projected


 

 

 

For the years ended December 31


 


2004



 



2005



 



2006



 



2007



 



2008



 


2008
Takeout


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Interest Income After Provision

$12,173

 

$12,406

 

$13,379

 

$14,073

 

$14,707

 

 

Non-interest Income

4,154


 


4,569


 


5,026


 


5,278


 


5,542


 


 

 

16,327

 

16,975

 

18,405

 

19,351

 

20,248

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amortization of Intangibles

(42

)

(42

)

(24

)

-

 

-

 

 

Depreciation

(787

)

(822

)

(922

)

(957

)

(992

)

 

General & Administrative Expenses

(10,644


)


(11,009


)


(11,500


)


(12,087


)


(12,704


)


 

     Total Other Expenses

(11,473


)


(11,873


)


(12,447


)


(13,044


)


(13,696


)


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Before Taxes

4,854

 

5,102

 

5,958

 

6,307

 

6,552

 

 

Taxes @ 30%

(1,456


)


(1,531


)


(1,787


)


(1,892


)


(1,966


)


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

3,398

 

3,571

 

4,171

 

4,415

 

4,587

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dividend Payout

$1,359

 

$1,429

 

$1,668

 

$1,766

 

$1,835

 

 

(% Divident Payout)

40%

 

40%

 

40%

 

40%

 

40%

 

 

Present Value Factor @ 10.5% (1)

0.9835


 


0.9202


 


0.8327


 


0.7536


 


0.6820


 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mid-year Discount

(680

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

Present Value of Free Cash Flows

$668


 


$1,315


 


$1,389


 


$1,331


 


$1,251


 


 


Total Present Value of Cash Flows (Years 1 to 5)

$5,954

 

 

 

 

Plus: Residual Cash Flow Value

$44,109


 

2008 Tangible Book Value (TBV)

 

38,194


 

 

 

 

 

 

Indicated Equity Value

$50,063


 

2008 Takeout Price/TBV Multiple (2)

 

178.0%


 

 

 

 

 

 

Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding

1,841,518


 

Residual Cash Flow Value

 

$67,985

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Value Per Share (Marketable)

$27.19


 

Present Value Factor

 

0.6488


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

Present Value of Residual Cash Flow

 

$44,109




(1)

Based on the Ibbotson Associates weighted average cost of capital build up method (riskless rate + market risk premium) utilizing a 1.3% industry discount for commercial banks (data from Ibbotson Associates 2003 Yearbook - Valuation Edition)

 

 

(2)

Based on an average of Midwest transactions of comparble size since January 1, 2003.



Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 15





CONFIDENTIAL


Michigan Bank & Trust








4.     Recent Trading Analysis








Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 16





Project H20
Recent Trading Analysis




30 Day Trading Average = $24.05
90 Day Trading Average = $24.06



DPFH & Co.

Page 17





CONFIDENTIAL


Michigan Bank & Trust








5.     Analysis of Comparable Companies








Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 18





Comparable Company Analysis
Michigan publicly traded banks with total assets < $500 million


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

Fiscal

Closing

Dividend

Dividend

Closing Price (8/30/2004) to:


Total


Company



State



Ticker


Period
Ended


Price
(8/30/2004)


Payout
(%)


Yield
(%)


Book
(%)


Tang.
Book (%)


LTM
EPS (x)


Assets
($000)


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capital Directions, Incorporated

MI

CTDN

03/31/2004

$54.50

66.10

2.97

213.31

213.31

19.68

$130,852

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Century Financial Corporation

MI

CYFL

03/31/2004

23.00

NA

3.65

156.89

156.89

15.33

223,329

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc.

MI

COFS

06/30/2004

23.00

65.38

3.27

177.20

177.33

17.83

225,584

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clarkston Financial Corporation

MI

CKSB

06/30/2004

20.25

0.00

0.00

195.09

195.84

13.24

148,131

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commercial National Financial Corporation

MI

CEFC

06/30/2004

10.75

75.00

4.00

178.87

178.87

16.04

243,151

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Community Central Bank Corporation

MI

CCBD

06/30/2004

11.40

125.00

1.75

138.01

143.58

18.39

414,115

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Community Shores Bank Corporation

MI

CSHB

06/30/2004

13.25

0.00

0.00

148.38

148.38

25.48

184,437

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

County Bank Corporation

MI

CYBK

06/30/2004

56.50

33.33

2.07

220.10

220.10

18.96

251,937

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dearborn Bancorp, Inc.

MI

DEAR

06/30/2004

25.50

0.00

0.00

214.65

214.65

16.78

475,452

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Michigan Financial Corp

MI

EFIN

03/31/2004

23.80

NA

3.00

138.61

138.61

16.64

227,141

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FNBH Bancorp, Inc.

MI

FNHM

06/30/2004

30.00

41.46

2.43

223.71

223.71

15.87

449,216

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HCB Financial Corporation

MI

HCBN

03/31/2004

33.35

NA

2.05

131.66

131.87

14.96

242,656

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ICNB Financial Corporation

MI

ICNB

06/30/2004

27.75

47.92

3.32

134.45

140.65

15.50

234,191

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Michigan Heritage Bancorp, Inc.

MI

MHBC

06/30/2004

12.00

0.00

0.00

116.17

116.17

14.63

157,563

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Country Financial Corporation

MI

NCFC

06/30/2004

1.30

NM

0.00

154.76

191.18

NM

345,042

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pavilion Bancorp, Inc.

MI

PVLN

06/30/2004

56.00

23.76

1.63

174.84

174.84

14.97

328,332

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pelican Financial, Inc.

MI

PFI

06/30/2004

4.99

NM

0.00

140.56

140.56

NM

258,780

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PSB Group, Inc.

MI

PSBG

06/30/2004

20.00

51.52

3.63

139.37

154.68

14.81

429,572

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

University Bancorp, Inc.

MI

UNIB

06/30/2004

1.50

NM

0.00

189.87

197.37

NM

45,757

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Michigan Bancorp, Incorporated

MI

SOMC

06/30/2004

24.05

34.69

2.50

167.01

171.66

13.29

310,815

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

 

 

56.50

125.00

4.00

223.71

223.17

25.48

475,452

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low

 

 

 

1.30

0.00

0.00

116.17

116.17

13.24

45,757

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

 

 

23.62

40.73

1.78

167.71

171.50

16.82

263,960

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

 

 

23.00

41.46

2.05

156.89

174.84

15.96

242,656

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Michigan Bancorp, Incorporated

MI

SOMC

06/30/2004

24.05

34.69

2.50

167.01

171.66

13.29

310,815

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Michingan Bancorp (for the LTM ended June 30, 2004)

$14.40

$14.02

$1.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median Multiple

156.9%

174.8%

16.0x

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Value per Share

$22.59

$24.51

$28.80

 








Company





Total
Net Loans
($000)





Total

Deposits
($000)





Total
Equity
($000)





NPAs/
Assets
(%)


Tier 1
Risk
Based
Capital
Ratio
(%)


Total
Risk
Based
Capital
Ratio
(%)





LTM
ROAA
(%)





LTM
ROAE
(%)





LTM
NIM
(%)




LTM
Efficiency
Ratio
(%)


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capital Directions, Incorporated

$107,855

$77,829

$15,020

0

17.54

18.79

1.28

11.12

3.64

54.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Century Financial Corporation

140,304

189,282

27,385

0.97

16.56

17.81

1.24

10.42

3.74

60.93

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ChoiceOne Financial Services, Inc.

168,000

156,442

20,352

1.18

NA

NA

0.94

9.77

3.87

69.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clarkston Financial Corporation

93,255

123,932

10,830

0

11.83

12.92

1.13

13.82

3.53

61.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commercial National Financial Corporation

198,041

165,612

24,516

1.21

13.5

14.7

1.14

11.08

4.49

60.27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Community Central Bank Corporation

300,007

310,256

23,638

0.77

10.32

12.13

0.49

7.39

3.22

76.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Community Shores Bank Corporation

158,796

152,465

12,765

0.59

7.63

10.59

0.4

5.83

3.35

78.92

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

County Bank Corporation

160,202

217,534

28,706

NA

17.7

NA

1.4

11.18

4.45

61.69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dearborn Bancorp, Inc.

436,297

405,830

37,275

0.4

10.15

11.2

1.08

13.58

4.19

55.97

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Michigan Financial Corp

175,838

206,536

19,788

1.01

12.46

13.72

0.73

8.5

4.08

57.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FNBH Bancorp, Inc.

326,990

398,276

42,599

0.4

12.02

13.27

1.38

14.53

4.71

56.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HCB Financial Corporation

134,098

194,296

26,009

0.02

18.52

19.77

0.98

8.98

3.62

63.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ICNB Financial Corporation

181,181

177,896

22,222

1.22

13.26

14.51

0.85

8.79

4.25

69.97

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Michigan Heritage Bancorp, Inc.

124,497

133,762

15,425

2.16

NA

NA

0.83

8.06

4.27

78.03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Country Financial Corporation

222,182

235,646

5,885

4.87

2.91

5.82

-2.06

-78.95

2.11

170.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pavilion Bancorp, Inc.

280,133

268,378

27,079

0.51

NA

NA

0.99

11.65

4.93

73.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pelican Financial, Inc.

105,180

230,518

15,945

0.08

14.06

15.1

NA

NA

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PSB Group, Inc.

344,091

366,491

41,415

0.95

11.29

12.39

0.98

9.28

4.39

71.01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

University Bancorp, Inc.

38,376

40,461

3,252

2.62

10.15

11.4

-0.6

-7.76

4.69

105.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Michigan Bancorp, Incorporated

236,419

253,831

26,348

NA

13.5

14.8

1.04

12.6

4.13

70.84

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

436,297

405,830

42,599

4.87

18.52

19.77

1.40

14.53

4.93

170.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low

38,376

40,461

3,252

0.00

2.91

5.82

-2.06

-78.95

2.11

54.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

194,491

213,234

22,111

1.05

12.49

13.61

0.73

4.29

3.97

73.64

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

168,000

194,296

22,222

0.86

12.24

13.27

0.98

9.53

4.14

66.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Michigan Bancorp, Incorporated

236,419

253,831

26,348

NA

13.5

14.8

1.04

12.6

4.13

70.84

Source:  SNL Financial

Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 19





CONFIDENTIAL


Michigan Bank & Trust








6.     Analysis of Comparable Transactions








Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 20





Comparable Acquisition Analysis
Bank acquisitions announced since 1/1/03 in MI, OH & IN - Target assets less than $500 million



Buyer




Seller



Seller
State



Announce
Date



Completion
Date


Deal
Value
($M)


Target
Assets
($M)


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Croghan Bancshares, Inc.

Custar State Bank

OH

08/10/2004

NA

13.9

54,234

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Defiance Financial Corp.

Combanc Inc.

OH

08/04/2004

NA

38.0

208,813

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oak Hill Financial, Inc.

Ripley National Bank

OH

07/20/2004

NA

5.5

64,157

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dearborn Bancorp, Inc.

Bank of Washtenaw

MI

07/16/2004

NA

15.0

71,786

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Camco Financial Corporation

London Financial Corporation

OH

03/26/2004

08/20/2004

10.1

58,941

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lincoln Bancorp

First Shares Bancorp, Inc.

IN

03/10/2004

08/02/2004

37.3

175,788

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Bank Corporation

North Bancorp, Inc.

MI

03/04/2004

07/01/2004

8.5

198,482

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Citizens Banc Corp.

FNB Financial Corporation

OH

03/03/2004

NA

35.6

218,580

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Bank Corporation

Midwest Guaranty Bancorp, Incorporated

MI

02/04/2004

05/31/2004

43.0

233,580

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harrodsburg First Financial Bancorp, Inc.

Independence Bancorp

IN

01/22/2004

07/09/2004

17.1

102,749

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MainSource Financial Group Inc.

Peoples Financial Corporation

IN

12/16/2003

06/07/2004

13.3

120,251

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Place Financial Corp.

Franklin Bancorp, Inc.

MI

11/10/2003

05/28/2004

83.6

536,172

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wayne Savings Bancshares, Inc.

Stebbins Bancshares, Inc.

OH

10/31/2003

06/01/2004

5.2

28,836

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fentura Financial, Inc.

West Michigan Financial Corporation

MI

10/14/2003

03/15/2004

12.9

123,758

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chemical Financial Corporation

Caledonia Financial Corporation

MI

09/25/2003

12/01/2003

51.1

206,158

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sky Financial Group Inc.

GLB Bancorp, Inc.

OH

07/16/2003

10/19/2003

39.8

207,407

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Citizens First Bancorp, Inc.

Metro Bancorp, Inc.

MI

05/22/2003

01/09/2004

30.0

146,842

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

 

 

 

83.6

536,172

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low

 

 

 

 

5.2

28,836

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

 

 

 

26.0

160,152

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

 

 

 

15.0

123,758

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Michigan Bancorp (for the LTM ended June 30, 2004)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median Multiple

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Value per Share

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 


Price at Announcement to:


Premium
to Core


Buyer



Seller


Book
(%)


TBV
(%)


LTM EPS
(x)


Assets
(%)


Deposits
(%)


Deposits
(%)


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Croghan Bancshares, Inc.

Custar State Bank

150.01

150.01

19.49

25.62

31.00

11.96

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Defiance Financial Corp.

Combanc Inc.

167.64

167.64

NM

18.21

21.71

9.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oak Hill Financial, Inc.

Ripley National Bank

167.73

167.73

19.71

8.57

9.57

4.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dearborn Bancorp, Inc.

Bank of Washtenaw

211.15

211.15

NM

20.90

24.94

17.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Camco Financial Corporation

London Financial Corporation

203.31

203.31

18.77

17.10

22.67

13.36

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lincoln Bancorp

First Shares Bancorp, Inc.

255.01

255.43

35.52

21.24

26.15

23.49

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Bank Corporation

North Bancorp, Inc.

112.20

112.20

NM

4.30

5.47

0.81

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Citizens Banc Corp.

FNB Financial Corporation

132.06

142.82

NM

16.29

19.40

6.84

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Bank Corporation

Midwest Guaranty Bancorp, Incorporated

246.55

246.55

19.66

18.41

22.24

16.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Harrodsburg First Financial Bancorp, Inc.

Independence Bancorp

260.73

294.66

27.12

21.22

26.48

22.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MainSource Financial Group Inc.

Peoples Financial Corporation

157.10

157.10

NM

11.06

13.29

5.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Place Financial Corp.

Franklin Bancorp, Inc.

177.92

177.92

167.79

15.60

19.72

9.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wayne Savings Bancshares, Inc.

Stebbins Bancshares, Inc.

152.76

152.76

NM

18.03

20.46

7.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fentura Financial, Inc.

West Michigan Financial Corporation

239.89

239.89

NM

10.44

12.99

8.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chemical Financial Corporation

Caledonia Financial Corporation

247.15

247.15

15.83

24.80

29.41

23.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sky Financial Group Inc.

GLB Bancorp, Inc.

132.56

133.19

33.54

19.21

23.27

6.47

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Citizens First Bancorp, Inc.

Metro Bancorp, Inc.

181.40

181.40

20.15

20.43

23.09

11.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

260.7

294.7

167.8

25.6

31.0

23.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low

 

112.2

112.2

15.8

4.3

5.5

0.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

192.1

195.1

40.5

16.8

20.4

12.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

177.9

177.9

19.7

18.0

21.7

9.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Michigan Bancorp (for the LTM ended June 30, 2004)

$14.40

$14.02

$1.80

$169.91

$138.76

$121.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median Multiple

 

177.9%

177.9%

19.7x

18.0%

21.7%

9.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Value per Share

 

$25.62

$24.94

$35.46

$30.58

$30.11

$25.93

Source:  SNL Financial LP

Donnelly Penman & Partners
I N V E S T M E N T    B A N K I N G


Page 21