EX-99.(C)-4 6 d457324dex99c4.htm FAIRNESS OPINION DISCUSSION MATERIALS PREPARED BY EVERCORE GROUP, L.L.C. Fairness opinion discussion materials prepared by Evercore Group, L.L.C.
Fairness Opinion Discussion Materials
December 4, 2012
Presentation to the Special Committee of
the Board of Directors of McMoRan Exploration Co.
Exhibit (c)-4


These materials have been prepared by Evercore Group L.L.C. (“Evercore”) for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Special Committee”) of
McMoRan Exploration Co. (the “Company” or “McMoRan” or “MMR”) to whom such materials are directly addressed and delivered and may not be used or relied
upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Evercore. These materials are based on information provided by or on behalf of
the Company, from public sources or otherwise reviewed by Evercore. Evercore assumes no responsibility for independent investigation or verification of such information
and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial
performance prepared by or reviewed with the management of the Company or obtained from public sources, Evercore has assumed that such estimates and forecasts have
been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such management (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained
from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and
nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a representation, whether as to the past, the present or the future. These materials were designed for use by specific
persons familiar with the business and affairs of the Company. These materials are not intended to provide the sole basis for evaluating, and should not be considered a
recommendation with respect to, any transaction or other matter. These materials have been developed by and are proprietary to Evercore and were prepared exclusively for
the benefit and internal use of the Special Committee.
These materials were compiled on a confidential basis for use of the Special Committee in evaluating the potential transaction described herein and not with a view to
public disclosure or filing thereof under state or federal securities laws, and may not be reproduced, disseminated, quoted or referred to, in whole or in part, without the prio
written consent of Evercore.
These materials do not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase any securities and are not a commitment by Evercore (or any affiliate) to provide or arrange any
financing for any transaction or to purchase any security in connection therewith. Evercore assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials. These
materials may not reflect information known to other professionals in other business areas of Evercore and its affiliates.
Evercore and its affiliates do not provide legal, accounting or tax advice. Accordingly, any statements contained herein as to tax matters were neither written nor intended
by Evercore or its affiliates to be used and cannot be used by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties that may be imposed on such taxpayer. Each person
should seek legal, accounting and tax advice based on his, her or its particular circumstances from independent advisors regarding the impact of the transactions or matters
described herein.


Confidential
Table of Contents
Transaction Overview
Situation Analysis
Financial Analysis
Appendix
Section
I
II
III


I.
Transaction Overview


Confidential
1
Summary
Transaction Overview
Offer Price
Premium
Analysis
(EV based on Risked Value)
I/B/E/S
Multiple
MMR Estimates
Multiple
EV/2012E EBITDAX
$159.0
25.8x
$175.4
23.4x
EV/2013E EBITDAX
$162.6
25.2x
$175.1
23.4x
Offer Price/2012E CFPS
$0.62
27.7x
$0.57
30.2x
Offer Price/2013E CFPS
$0.56
30.7x
$0.51
33.5x
EV/Proved Reserves
209 Bcfe
$19.65 / Mcfe
209 Bcfe
$19.65 / Mcfe
EV/3P Reserves + Risked Resource
18,236 Bcfe
$0.22 / Mcfe
18,236 Bcfe
$0.22 / Mcfe
EV/3Q Production
133,809 Mcfed
$30,613 / Mcfed
133,809 Mcfed
$30,613 / Mcfed
EV/2013E Production
153,600 Mcfed
$26,668 / Mcfed
150,259 Mcfed
$27,261 / Mcfed
(Based on Risked Value)
Trading Days
Period of Time
52-Week
Type of Average
Current
1-Day
5-Day
10-Day
30-Day
90-Day
180-Day
1-Year
2-Year
High
Low
VWAP
--
$8.47
$8.23
$9.13
$10.23
$11.49
$10.90
$11.54
$13.23
--
--
Implied Premium
--
103.0%
108.9%
88.5%
68.2%
49.7%
57.8%
49.0%
30.0%
--
--
Simple Average
$8.72
$8.72
$8.50
$10.21
$11.52
$12.29
$11.32
$12.00
$13.74
$16.57
$7.25
Implied Premium
97.3%
97.3%
102.3%
68.4%
49.4%
40.0%
51.9%
43.4%
25.2%
3.8%
137.3%
Implied
Multiples
(1)
ORRI Trust unit value based on the midpoint of the per unit value of the ORRI Trust at a 10% discount rate and an 11% discount rate using the NAV Assumptions under NYMEX Strip pricing as of December 3, 2012 assuming a
$16.90 offer value for purposes of calculating make-whole and fully diluted shares assuming a December 31, 2012 closing date
Proposed Merger Consideration
$14.75 in cash and 1.15 units in a newly formed royalty trust representing
a 5.0% overriding royalty interest in McMoRan's ultra-deep acreage
for each common share of McMoRan
Risked
(1)
Unrisked
(1)
Cash Consideration
$14.7500
$14.7500
Implied Value of Trust Units Per Share
$2.4528
$4.6002
Total Consideration Per Common Share
$17.2028
$19.3502
Implied Transaction Equity Value
$3,988
$4,485
Implied Transaction Enterprise Value
$4,096
$4,593
Merger
Consideration
Scope of
Assignment:
Evercore Group L.L.C. (“Evercore”) has been asked by McMoRan’s Special Committee of the Board of Directors
whether, in Evercore’s opinion, the consideration to be received by holders of common stock of McMoRan in the
Proposed Transaction is fair, from a financial point of view, to such holders entitled to receive such consideration
($ in millions, except per share and unit amounts)


Confidential
Summary of Selected Proposed Merger Agreement Terms
2
Valuation /
Consideration:
$14.75 in cash, without interest, and 1.15 units of the newly formed royalty trust (the “ORRI Trust”)
Each ORRI Trust unit will entitle the Unitholder to an equal share of the 5.0% overriding royalty interest (“ORRI”) in McMoRan
Exploration Co.’s (“McMoRan”, “MMR”, or the “Company”) subsalt ultra-deep assets (the “Ultra-Deep Assets”)
Common Stock and Preferred Stock owned by Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (“Freeport”) or Merger Sub, or any of their
respective Subsidiaries, shall no longer be outstanding and shall automatically be cancelled and shall cease to exist (the “Cancelled Shares”)
Freeport owns 500,000 shares of convertible perpetual preferred stock with an initial conversion price of $16.00 which would
equate
to
33,164,664
common
shares
upon
conversion,
or
14.3%
of
the
fully
diluted
shares
outstanding.
(1)
All
of
these
shares
would be cancelled in the merger
Convertible preferred stock and convertible notes not owned by Freeport will remain outstanding and will receive the merger consideration
upon conversion in accordance with the applicable terms of each convertible preferred share series
Transaction
Structure:
Merger
Sub,
a
direct
wholly
owned
subsidiary
of
Freeport,
shall
merge
with
and
into
McMoRan
and
the
separate
corporate
existence
of
Merger Sub shall cease and McMoRan shall be the surviving corporation in the merger
Financing:
Freeport has delivered to McMoRan a true and complete copy of the executed debt commitment letter by and among the financing sources
and Freeport providing for debt financing
Key
Conditions to
Closing:
Stockholder approval shall have been obtained by a vote of the majority of MMR excluding Freeport and Plains E&P
No injunction by any court or other tribunal of competent jurisdiction shall have been entered
All waiting periods applicable to the Merger under the HSR Act shall have expired or been terminated
The Form S-4 shall have been declared effective by the SEC
No Shop/
Fiduciary Out:
“No
Shop”
provision
for
McMoRan
subject
to
fiduciary
exception,
including
right
for
McMoRan
to
respond
to
a
bona
fide
written
proposal
that
could
reasonably
be
expected
to
lead
to
a
proposal
that
is
more
favorable
to
McMoRan
shareholders
than
the
merger
transaction with Freeport
No ability to terminate Merger Agreement in event a superior proposal is received
Termination
Fees:
3% of equity value payable by Freeport in the event of a change in recommendation by Freeport
3% of equity value payable by McMoRan in the event of a change in recommendation by McMoRan
Transaction expenses will also be reimbursed
Timing:
Expected closing in Q1 2013
Transaction Overview
Related Party
Transaction:
Freeport is also contemplating a concurrent acquisition of Plains Exploration and Production Company (“Plains
E&P”), which currently owns 31.5% (basic) of the voting shares of the Company. Consummation of the Proposed
Transaction is not contingent upon Freeport’s contemplated acquisition of Plains E&P
(1)
Assumes
an
implied
offer
value
of
$16.90
per
share
and
a
closing
date
of
December
31,
2012
for
purposes
of
calculating
the
applicable
make-whole


Confidential
Summary of Selected ORRI Trust Proposed Terms
3
Overriding Royalty
Percentage:
5.0% gross overriding royalty interest in and to the hydrocarbons produced from McMoRan’s Ultra-Deep Assets
(leases below 18,000 feet)
Term:
20 years
Call Option:
Non-callable for five years
Callable at $10.00 per unit after year five
Termination
Clauses:
After
five
years,
if
the
volume-weighted
average
price
for
any
nine
month
period
is
below
$0.25
per
unit,
Freeport
can
buy all (but not less than all) outstanding units for $0.25 per unit
Freeport
has
the
right
to
terminate
the
trust
upon
a
vote
of
the
holders
of
80%
of
the
publicly
traded
units
not
owned
by Freeport.  After five years, the 80% required vote drops to 66-2/3%
Drilling, Operating
and Development
Costs:
Free and clear of any and all drilling, development and operating costs and expenses
Shall be subject to and bear transportation and marketing fees and production and other like taxes
Drilling Obligation:
The
ORRI
Trust
will
have
no
ability
to
influence
the
exploration
or
development
of
the
Ultra-Deep
Assets
Trust Expenses:
Freeport will fund the administrative and reporting obligations of the ORRI Trust, subject to an expense ceiling
Transaction Overview


Confidential
Evercore Evaluation Process
4
In connection with its review of the Proposed Transaction, Evercore has, among other things:
Reviewed
certain
publicly
available
business
and
financial
information
relating
to
the
Company
that
Evercore
deemed
to
be
relevant,
including
publicly
available
research
analysts’
estimates;
Reviewed and discussed with the Company’s management certain non-public projected financial and operating data
relating
to
the
Company
prepared
and
furnished
to
Evercore
by
management
of
the
Company;
Discussed
past
and
current
operations,
financial
projections
and
current
financial
condition
of
the
Company
with management
of the Company (including their views on the risks and uncertainties of achieving such projections);
Reviewed
a
report
regarding
the
Company’s
proved,
probable
and
possible
reserves
prepared
by
Ryder
Scott
Company, L.P.
(“Ryder Scott”) dated as of July 1, 2012 (the “Reserve Report”) with representatives from Ryder Scott;
Reviewed the impact of different commodity price assumptions on the net asset value of the Company’s proved, probable and
possible reserves, as well as the resources potential of the Ultra-Deep Assets, using customary adjustments to reflect an
October 1, 2012 effective date for this analysis;
Reviewed
and
discussed
with
MMR
technical
personnel
the
Company’s
resource
potential
from
its
Ultra-Deep
Assets
prepared
and
furnished
to
Evercore
by
management
of
the
Company;
Evercore developed risking assumptions of the Company’s resource potential from the Company’s Ultra-Deep Assets utilizing
Evercore’s technical team, which Evercore discussed with the Company’s technical personnel, who deemed the assumptions
reasonable;
Reviewed
the
reported
prices
and
the
historical
trading
activity
of
the
Company’s
common
stock;
Compared the financial performance of the Company and its stock market trading multiples with those of certain other
publicly-traded companies that Evercore deemed relevant;
Compared the financial performance of the Company and the valuation multiples implied by the Proposed Transaction with
those of certain other transactions that Evercore deemed relevant;
Reviewed
a
draft
of
the
Merger
Agreement
dated
December
4,
2012;
and
Performed such other analyses and examinations and considered such other factors that Evercore deemed appropriate.
Transaction Overview


II.
Situation
Analysis


Confidential
Share Price (December 3, 2012)
$8.72
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
(1)
164.5
Market Capitalization
$1,434
Plus: 5.75% Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock
700
Plus: 11.875% Senior Notes Due 2016
300
Plus: 4.00% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2017
200
Plus: 5.25% Convertible Notes Due 2013
68
Less: Cash
(192)
Total Enterprise Value
$2,510
Estimates and Implied Metrics
McMoRan
Data
(2)
Metric
Price / Cash Flow per share
2012E
$0.62
14.1x
2013E
$0.56
15.6x
EV / EBITDAX
2012E
$159.0
15.8x
2013E
$162.6
15.4x
EV / Proved Reserves ($/Mcfe)
208.5
$12.04
EV / Production ($/Mcfed)
Current
133,809
$18,760
2013E
153,600
$16,343
Net Debt + Pref. / Net Book Capitalization
2,674.4
40.2%
Net Debt + Pref. / 2012E EBITDAX
$159.0
6.8x
Net Debt + Pref / Proved Reserves ($/Mcfe)
208.5
$5.16
Net Debt + Pref / Proved Developed Reserves ($/Mcfe)
170.6
$6.31
Key Company Data & Implied Metrics
(1)
Includes
conversion
of
12.118
million
8.0%
convertible
perpetual
preferred
shares
(164.95
shares
per
preferred
share)
into
2.0
million
shares
(2)
Based on I/B/E/S estimates
(3)
Peer Group includes Cobalt, Energy XXI, EPL Oil & Gas, Stone Energy and W&T Offshore
5
Situation Analysis
(3)
Overview
($
in
millions,
except
per
share
amounts)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
12/6/10
4/30/11
9/23/11
2/15/12
7/10/12
12/3/12
McMoRan Exploration Co.
Peer Group
Natural Gas
55%
80%
127%
Current Price
$8.72
Max
18.74
Mean
13.76
Median
13.51
Min
7.99
Simple Average Price -
Trading
5-Day
$8.50
30-Day
11.52
90-Day
12.29
180-Day
11.32
1 Year
12.00
2 Year
13.74
Two Year Price Performance (12/6/10 - 12/3/12)


Confidential
Historical Share Trading Performance
6
1/17/12:
Announced
2011 year-end results
1/31/12:
Exploration
and Development
Update
3/7/12:
Letter
to
shareholders
7/17/12:
Announced
2Q 2012 Results
4/19/12:
Announced
Davy Jones update
8/15/12:
Commenced
offer
to
exchange 5 ¼% convertible
senior notes due 2012
9/13/12:
Completes
exchange offer
10/19/12:
Announced
third-quarter 2012 results
7/30/12:
Announced
updated
activity at Davy Jones No. 1,
which included the delay of
planned flow test
9/4/12:
Announced
operations update
11/26/12:
Announced
a
delay
in
flow testing operations at Davy
Jones No. 1 and  the discovery of
hydrocarbon bearing porous sands
from the Lineham Creek well
6/22/12:
Announced
that
the Company was the
apparent high bidder on 14
lease blocks in GOM Shelf
4/17/12:
Announced
first-quarter 2012
results
Situation Analysis
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
$--
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$22.00
$24.00
12/5/11
1/14/12
2/23/12
4/4/12
5/14/12
6/24/12
8/3/12
9/13/12
10/23/12
12/3/12
Volume
Price
3/26/12: Announced flare at
Davy Jones No. 1, however
flow rates were not
determinable


Confidential
7
The following financial projections summarize McMoRan’s operating model (the “MMR Operating Model”) as provided by
McMoRan management
The projections incorporate all activity associated with McMoRan’s conventional Gulf Coast onshore and Gulf of Mexico
Shelf assets (the “Conventional Assets”)
In addition, the projections incorporate the development of MMR’s Ultra-Deep Assets utilizing the following assumptions:
100% success rate on exploration wells (no dry hole costs)
Gross prospect size of 2 Tcfe
To develop a 2 Tcfe discovery requires 3 development wells drilled per year following an initial discovery well up to 10
total successful wells
200 Bcfe gross reserves per well (95% natural gas, 5% condensate)
Drilling cost per well of $100 million
Completion cost per well of $100 million
Facilities cost of $43 million per well
1 year drilling duration per well and 6 months to complete per well
Wells commence 18 months following spud date
NYMEX strip pricing as of December 3, 2012 through 2017E and held flat thereafter
Assumed 35% U.S. Federal corporate tax rate
Financing for free cash flow shortfall assumed to come from a revolving credit facility with a 4.0% annualized interest rate
Situation Analysis
Summary Financial Projections – Assumptions


Confidential
Summary Financial Projections
8
Summary Financial Projections
($ in millions)
Situation Analysis
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
Production
Natural Gas (Bcf)
32.4
40.5
95.4
145.6
187.5
228.7
262.9
281.8
Oil (MMBbls)
2.1
2.0
2.2
3.0
3.1
2.7
3.1
3.0
Plant Products (Bcfe)
5.4
2.5
1.7
1.3
0.8
3.1
3.4
1.2
Total (Bcfe)
50.5
54.8
110.6
164.6
207.2
248.1
285.0
301.0
Daily (Bcfed)
138
150
303
451
568
680
781
825
Realized Prices
Natural Gas ($/Mcf)
$3.42
$3.73
$4.10
$4.27
$4.42
$4.60
$4.60
$4.60
Crude Oil ($/Bbl)
88.43
91.32
91.36
89.43
87.67
86.46
86.46
86.46
Oil and Natural Gas Revenue
$381
$351
$610
$894
$1,110
$1,310
$1,504
$1,565
Less: LOE
($155)
($127)
($127)
($126)
($122)
($120)
($121)
($115)
Less: G&A
(51)
(49)
(49)
(49)
(49)
(49)
(49)
(49)
Adjusted EBITDAX
$175
$175
$434
$719
$939
$1,142
$1,334
$1,401
Less: Interest Expense
($2)
($15)
($26)
($32)
($24)
($12)
($37)
($36)
Less: Preferred Dividends
(41)
(41)
(41)
(41)
(41)
(41)
(41)
(41)
Less: Cash Taxes
--
--
(1)
(6)
(68)
(232)
(316)
(380)
Discretionary Cash Flow
$132
$119
$365
$640
$806
$856
$940
$943
Less: Capex
($550)
($500)
($749)
($551)
($489)
($493)
($443)
($437)
Free Cash Flow
($417)
($381)
($384)
$89
$317
$364
$497
$506


III.
Financial Analysis


Confidential
Valuation Methodologies
In analyzing the Proposed Transaction, Evercore utilized the following methodologies for its preliminary valuation of McMoRan:
9
Methodology
Description
Assumptions
Net Asset Valuation
(“NAV”) Analysis
Valuation based on the present value of the future after-tax cash
flows expected to be generated from MMR’s proved and non-
proved reserves and resources
Cash flows based on the Reserve Report and the
Company’s resource estimates for its Ultra-Deep Assets
Peer Group Trading
Analysis
Valuation based on public trading metrics of E&P companies with
similar assets
Proved reserves based on the Reserve Report
Financial projections based on I/B/E/S estimates
Reviewed trading multiples for selected GOM and
onshore Gulf Coast companies
Reviewed resource trading multiples for Cobalt
International Energy, Inc. (“Cobalt”)
Precedent Transactions
Analysis
Valuation based on metrics of transaction value to cash flow,
EBITDAX, proved reserves and current production for corporate
M&A transactions and premiums paid in corporate transactions
with all cash consideration in 2012 YTD
Valuation based on metrics of transaction value to proved
reserves, current production and risked resources for asset
transactions involving acquisitions of similar assets
Proved reserves based on the Reserve Report
Cash flow and EBITDAX based on the MMR
Operating Model
Reviewed selected transactions that included assets in
the Gulf of Mexico shelf and onshore Gulf Coast since
2009 with a transaction value greater than $20 million
Reviewed selected transactions that included assets in
the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater and Ultra-Deep Shelf
Research Analyst
Price Target
Valuation based on current Wall Street analyst price targets
Discounted back Wall Street analyst 12-month price
targets to present value using a 13.3% discount rate
representing MMR’s equity cost of capital
Risked NAV Analysis
Assuming Hypothetical
Joint Venture
Valuation based on the present value of the future after-tax cash
flows expected to be generated from MMR’s proved and non-
proved reserves and resources assuming the Company enters into
a hypothetical joint venture agreement
Cash flows based on the Reserve Report and the
Company’s resource estimates for its Ultra-Deep Assets
Company would sell a 25.0% working interest in the
Ultra-Deep Assets for $800 million in the form of a
combination of cash and drilling capex carry
Financial Analysis


Confidential
Risked NAV Analysis
Peer Group
Research Analyst
Assuming Hypothetical
Risked NAV Analysis
Trading Analysis
Precedent Transactions
Price Target
Joint Venture
NYMEX Strip (12/3/12)
$75.00 Oil / $3.00 Gas
$90.00 Oil / $4.00 Gas
$105.00 Oil / $5.00 Gas
Conventional:
Precedent Asset
Precendent Corporate
Takeover Premiums
Present Value of
NYMEX Strip (12/3/12)
Proved Reserves
Conventional:
Conventional:
20.0% - 40.0%
12-Month Price Target
$2.50 - $3.25 / Mcfe
Gulf of Mexico Shelf
Proved Reserves
Discounted at 13.3%
Joint Venture Terms:
LQ Production
Proved Reserves
$8.00 - $12.00 / Mcfe
(MMR's equity cost of capital)
$800 million
$6,500 - $7,000 / Mcfed
$2.50 - $3.50 / Mcfe
LQ Production
of total consideration
2012E EBITDAX
LQ Production
$20,000 - $25,000 / Mcfed
comprised of
3.5x - 4.2x
$5,000 - $7,000 / Mcfed
2012E EBITDAX
$500 million of upfront cash
14.5x - 17.0x
and
Ultra-Deep
Gulf Coast Onshore
2013E EBITDAX
$300 million of drilling carry
Net Risked Resource
Proved Reserves
12.0x - 15.5x
for a
$0.10 - $0.18 / Mcfe
$2.50 - $4.00 / Mcfe
25% working interest
LQ Production
in MMR's Ultra-Deep Assets
$3,500 - $5,000 / Mcfed
Ultra-Deep
Net Risked Resource
Various
$12.61
-$2.72
$8.33
$17.59
$7.68
$13.49
$8.66
$10.23
$8.83
$12.46
$17.25
$0.26
$13.14
$22.35
$16.33
$20.83
$11.67
$16.98
$18.53
$16.13
-$10.00
-$5.00
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
Summary Valuation
10
Cash
consideration:
$14.75
Financial Analysis
(1)
ORRI Trust unit value based on the midpoint of the per unit value of the ORRI Trust at a 10% discount rate and an 11% discount rate using the NAV Assumptions under NYMEX Strip pricing as of December 3, 2012, assuming a
$16.90 offer value for purposes of calculating make-whole and fully diluted shares assuming a December 31, 2012 closing date
Cash plus 1.15 
ORRI Trust units 
(Unrisked): $19.35
(1)
Cash plus 1.15 ORRI
Trust units (Risked):
$17.20
(1)


Confidential
11
The
following
represents
the
assumptions
utilized
by
Evercore
in
its
net
asset
value
analysis
(the
“NAV
Assumptions”
)
Projections of proved, probable and possible production, operating costs, and capital expenditures based on the
Reserve Report rolled forward to October 1, 2012
Volumes and risking for specific Ultra-Deep prospects and discoveries (as per MMR estimates)
Geologic and mechanical risking was estimated by Evercore and reviewed by MMR’s technical team with
Evercore
Utilized an expected value analysis based on the assumed geologic and mechanical risking
Each well has a 200 Bcfe EUR
Developed using a continuous four rig program through 2014, going to a six rig program in 2015 and finally an
eight rig program by 2016, held constant thereafter
Lineham
Creek
Yegua
wells
begin
drilling
in
January
2014
with
an
incremental
non-operated
drilling
rig
Production for each well of 70 MMcfed held flat for six years, then exponential decline (as per MMR estimates)
Condensate is 5% of well stream (8.8 bbl/MMcf)
Gross well costs of $243.0 million per well (as per MMR estimates) comprised of:
$100.0 million and 1 year to drill
$100.0 million and 6 months to complete
$43.0 million to equip and tie-in
First production after 18 months
Financial Analysis
Net Asset Value Analysis – Assumptions


Confidential
12
Lineham Creek Yegua wells assumed to cost $60.0 million to drill, $40.0 million to complete, $43.0 million to equip
and tie-in and have a condensate ratio of 50.0 bbl/MMcf
Operating costs are $150,000 per well per month plus $0.15 per Mcfe of transportation costs (as per MMR estimates)
NYMEX strip pricing as of December 3, 2012 through 2017E and then held flat thereafter
Three sensitivity cases: $75.00/Bbl oil, $3.00/MMBtu gas; $90.00/Bbl oil, $4.00/MMBtu gas; $105.00/Bbl oil,
$5.00/MMBtu gas held flat
Effective date of October 1, 2012
G&A expense of $40.0 million per year plus an incremental $30.0 million per year of ultra-deep G&A beginning in
2014E
Insurance cost of $15.0 million per year plus an incremental insurance cost for the ultra-deep of 25% of ultra-deep
lease operating expense
Included sulphur reclamation expense at a PV-10 value of $18.6 million
Capital expenditures allocated 80% to intangible drilling costs (“IDCs”) and 20% to tangible drilling costs (“TDCs”)
IDCs are expensed as incurred and TDCs are depreciated using a 7-year MACRS schedule
Utilization of estimated U.S. Federal net operating loss carry forwards of $717.0 million as of December 31, 2011
U.S. Federal income tax rate of 35.0%
Escrow
funding
payments
of
$5.0
million
per
year
through
2017
to
support
the
funding
requirements
related
to
the
2007 oil and gas acquisition property reclamation obligations
Financial Analysis
Net Asset Value Analysis – Assumptions (cont’d)


Confidential
Ryder Scott prepared an estimate of the proved, probable and possible reserves, future
production and income attributable to MMR
The effective date of the Reserve Report is July 1, 2012
Evercore’s technical team has mechanically rolled the Reserve Report forward (to reflect only
actual production) to an effective date of October 1, 2012 and has updated the benchmark price
deck to a NYMEX strip as of December 3, 2012
Evercore
has
also
adjusted
the
Reserve
Report
for
asset
sales
at
West
Delta, Mississippi Canyon
and Eugene Island (sold 22.6 Bcfe of proved reserves) based on data received
from MMR
Reserve Report –
Summary
Reserve Category
Ryder Scott Reserves
(December 3, 2012 NYMEX Strip; Effective October 1, 2012)
Operated Status
Onshore vs. Offshore
13
Product Mix
Offshore
85%
Onshore
15%
PDP
14%
PDBP
35%
PUD
11%
PROB
20%
POSS
20%
Gas
65%
Oil
26%
NGL
9%
Operated
45%
Non-Op
55%
Financial Analysis
Gulf of Mexico Shelf
Oil
NGL
Gas
Equiv.
PV-10
Reserve Category
(Mbbl)
(Mbbl)
(MMcf)
(MMcfe)
($MM)
PDP
3,210
335
14,631
35,905
$1.1
PDBP
6,477
1,698
66,864
115,914
$534.5
PDSI
0
--
5
6
$0.0
PUD
834
658
23,058
32,008
$46.5
Total Proved Reserves
10,521
2,691
104,558
183,833
$582.1
Probable
2,330
917
34,365
53,850
$159.3
Total 2P Reserves
12,852
3,608
138,923
237,683
$741.4
Possible
1,299
1,352
41,359
57,263
$158.1
Total 3P Reserves
14,150
4,960
180,282
294,946
$899.5
Gulf Coast Onshore
Oil
NGL
Gas
Equiv.
PV-10
Reserve Category
(Mbbl)
(Mbbl)
(MMcf)
(MMcfe)
($MM)
PDP
307
199
11,025
14,063
$39.4
PDBP
95
36
3,924
4,710
$15.7
PDSI
--
--
--
--
$0.0
PUD
143
--
5,038
5,898
$15.3
Total Proved Reserves
545
235
19,987
24,671
$70.4
Probable
322
18
13,120
15,156
$47.7
Total 2P Reserves
867
253
33,107
39,827
$118.1
Possible
131
10
12,957
13,802
$36.6
Total 3P Reserves
998
263
46,064
53,629
$154.7
Total Conventional Assets
Oil
NGL
Gas
Equiv.
PV-10
Reserve Category
(Mbbl)
(Mbbl)
(MMcf)
(MMcfe)
($MM)
PDP
3,518
534
25,657
49,969
$40.5
PDBP
6,572
1,734
70,788
120,623
$550.2
PDSI
0
--
5
6
$0.0
PUD
977
658
28,095
37,906
$61.8
Total Proved Reserves
11,067
2,927
124,545
208,504
$652.5
Probable
2,652
935
47,485
69,006
$207.0
Total 2P Reserves
13,719
3,861
172,030
277,510
$859.5
Possible
1,430
1,362
54,316
71,065
$194.7
Total 3P Reserves
15,148
5,223
226,346
348,575
$1,054.2


Confidential
Ultra-Deep Assets Overview
Risked Volume Potential for MMR’s Ultra-Deep Assets
14
Financial Analysis
Gross Unrisked
Net Unrisked
Geologic
Mechanical
Gross Risked
Net Risked
Prospect
Category
WI
NRI
Resource Potential
Resource Potential
COS
COS
Resource Potential
Resource Potential
%
%
Bcfe
Bcfe
%
%
Bcfe
Bcfe
Offshore
Davy Jones
Discovery
63.4%
50.2%
3,248
1,631
80.0%
90.0%
2,321
1,165
Blackbeard East
Discovery
72.0%
57.4%
1,040
597
80.0%
90.0%
737
423
Lafitte
Discovery
72.0%
58.3%
2,342
1,365
80.0%
90.0%
1,601
933
Blackbeard West
Discovery
69.4%
53.1%
804
427
80.0%
90.0%
592
315
Offshore Discoveries Total
7,434
4,020
5,252
2,836
England
Prospect
36.0%
28.8%
27,300
7,862
30.5%
90.0%
7,487
2,156
Barbosa
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
2,588
1,491
30.5%
90.0%
721
415
Morgan
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
1,000
576
30.5%
90.0%
281
162
Barataria
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
2,820
1,624
30.5%
90.0%
776
447
Blackbeard West #3
Prospect
69.4%
55.5%
498
276
30.5%
90.0%
288
160
Drake
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
14,580
8,398
28.9%
90.0%
3,765
2,169
Davy Jones West
Prospect
36.0%
28.8%
1,400
403
30.5%
90.0%
391
113
Hurricane
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
1,575
907
30.5%
90.0%
446
257
Hook
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
4,890
2,817
28.9%
90.0%
1,257
724
Captain Blood
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
18,000
10,368
30.5%
90.0%
4,957
2,855
Bonnet
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
3,150
1,814
28.9%
90.0%
788
454
Queen Anne's Revenge
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
1,296
746
30.5%
90.0%
336
194
Calico Jack
Prospect
36.0%
28.8%
7,000
2,016
30.5%
90.0%
1,931
556
Offshore Prospects Total
86,097
39,300
23,424
10,661
Onshore
Lineham Creek -
Yegua
Discovery
36.0%
28.8%
3,000
864
80.0%
90.0%
2,176
627
Onshore Discoveries Total
3,000
864
2,176
627
Highlander
Near Term Drill
72.0%
57.6%
13,300
7,661
30.5%
90.0%
3,578
2,061
Lineham Creek
Drilling
36.0%
28.8%
10,800
3,110
30.5%
90.0%
2,976
857
Tortuga
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
5,590
3,220
28.9%
90.0%
1,465
844
Onshore Prospects Total
29,690
13,991
8,020
3,762
Total Ultra-Deep
126,221
58,175
-
-
38,872
17,887


Confidential
15
NAV Summary
Discount
Commodity Prices
Rate
NYMEX Strip (12/3/12)
$75.00 Oil / $3.00 Gas
$90.00 Oil / $4.00 Gas
$105.00 Oil / $5.00 Gas
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Proved Developed Producing
8% - 10%
$253
$258
$181
$185
$258
$264
$335
$342
Proved Developed Behind-Pipe
10% - 12%
513
550
381
409
507
544
633
678
Proved Undeveloped
15% - 20%
39
48
14
20
38
46
61
73
Proved Reserves
$805
$857
$577
$614
$803
$853
$1,028
$1,093
Probable
20% - 30%
90
128
62
90
87
124
112
159
Proved plus Probable Reserves
$895
$985
$639
$704
$890
$978
$1,140
$1,252
Possible
30% - 40%
80
102
50
65
78
99
105
132
3P Reserves
$975
$1,087
$689
$769
$967
$1,076
$1,245
$1,384
Ultra Deep Upside (Risked)
10% - 12%
4,087
5,519
1,184
1,917
3,167
4,373
5,150
6,830
P&A (Developed Properties)
8% - 10%
(212)
(224)
(212)
(224)
(212)
(224)
(212)
(224)
Gross Asset Value
$4,849
$6,383
$1,660
$2,461
$3,922
$5,225
$6,183
$7,989
Less: G&A
12% - 15%
(463)
(575)
(463)
(575)
(463)
(575)
(463)
(575)
Less: Insurance
8% - 10%
(295)
(371)
(295)
(371)
(295)
(371)
(295)
(371)
Less: Sulphur Reclaimation Expense
10% - 10%
(19)
(19)
(19)
(19)
(19)
(19)
(19)
(19)
Pre-Tax Net Asset Value
$4,073
$5,417
$884
$1,496
$3,145
$4,260
$5,406
$7,024
Less: Cash Taxes
12% - 15%
(914)
(1,311)
(236)
(365)
(699)
(1,014)
(1,220)
(1,721)
After-Tax Net Asset Value
$3,158
$4,106
$648
$1,131
$2,445
$3,247
$4,186
$5,303
Add: Cash
192
192
192
192
192
192
192
192
Less: Debt
(568)
(300)
(568)
(568)
(568)
(568)
(300)
(300)
Less: Preferred Shares
(700)
0
(712)
(712)
(700)
(700)
0
0
Equity Value
$2,082
$3,998
($440)
$43
$1,370
$2,171
$4,078
$5,195
Fully Diluted Shares
165.1
231.8
162.0
162.0
164.4
165.2
231.8
232.4
$/Share
$12.61
$17.25
($2.72)
$0.26
$8.33
$13.14
$17.59
$22.35
Financial Analysis
Net Asset Value Analysis –
Price Sensitivity 
($ in millions)


Confidential
Peer Group Trading Analysis
($ in millions)
16
Source: FactSet
Note: Proved reserves as of latest published reserve report, adjusted for subsequent acquisitions and divestitures
Enterprise Value /
Price /
Price
Equity
Enterprise
Proved
Production
EBITDAX
CFPS
Reserve & Production Statistics
Company
12/3/12
Value
Value
Reserves
Current
2013E
2012E
2013E
2012E
2013E
Proved Res
% Gas
% Dev.
LQ Prod.
2012E
2013E
R/P
($/share)
($MM)
($MM)
($/Mcfe)
($/Mcfed)
($/Mcfed)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(Bcfe)
(%)
(%)
(Mcfed)
(Mcfed)
(Mcfed)
(Years)
Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited
$31.32
$2,766
$3,772
$5.26
$16,864
$10,721
4.2x
3.5x
3.4x
2.6x
718
29.1%
68.3%
223,700
287,646
351,872
8.8
W&T Offshore, Inc.
$16.40
$1,260
$1,972
$2.81
$8,123
$6,094
3.8x
3.3x
2.6x
2.3x
701
41.3%
65.5%
242,750
285,740
323,543
7.9
Stone Energy Corporation
$19.91
$999
$1,634
$2.68
$6,516
$5,883
2.6x
2.6x
1.7x
1.7x
609
54.6%
59.8%
250,837
251,066
277,840
6.7
EPL Oil & Gas, Inc.
$21.05
$834
$1,032
$2.24
$15,883
$7,586
3.7x
2.2x
3.3x
2.0x
460
40.0%
74.0%
64,964
80,710
136,023
19.4
Mean
$1,465
$2,103
$3.25
$11,846
$7,571
3.6x
2.9x
2.7x
2.1x
622
41.3%
66.9%
195,563
226,291
272,319
10.7
Median
$1,129
$1,803
$2.75
$12,003
$6,840
3.8x
2.9x
3.0x
2.1x
655
40.7%
66.9%
233,225
268,403
300,692
8.4
McMoRan Exploration Co.
$8.72
$1,434
$2,510
$12.04
$18,760
$16,343
15.8x
15.4x
14.1x
15.6x
209
59.7%
81.8%
133,809
137,400
153,600
4.3
Conventional Assets Trading Peers
Ultra-Deep Assets Trading Peers
Adj. Enterprise Value
(4)
/
Price
Equity
Enterprise
Resource
(2)(3)
Risked
Unrisked
Company
Area
12/3/12
Value
Value
(1)
Risked
Unrisked
% Gas
Resource
Resource
($/share)
($MM)
($MM)
(Bcfe)
(Bcfe)
(%)
($/Mcfe)
($/Mcfe)
Cobalt
Total Company (GOM, Angola and Gabon)
$23.60
$9,795
$9,553
96,439
321,638
0%
$0.10
$0.03
GOM (Miocene and Lower Tertiary)
--
--
$2,979
14,935
63,104
0%
$0.20
$0.05
GOM (Miocene Only)
--
--
$1,450
6,498
19,808
0%
$0.22
$0.07
GOM (Lower Tertiary Only)
--
--
$1,529
8,436
43,295
0%
$0.18
$0.04
Africa (Angola and Gabon)
--
--
$6,574
81,504
258,535
0%
$0.08
$0.03
McMoRan Exploration Co.
$8.72
$1,434
$2,510
17,887
58,175
95%
$0.11
$0.03
(1)
Cobalt value allocated by area based on the value attributed to each area by street research as a percentage of total NAV
(2)
Cobalt
resource
numbers
represent
the
average
of
street
research
estimates
(3)
Oil
converted
to
gas
equivalent
on
an
economic
equivalents
basis
using
the
average
NYMEX
forward
strip
pricing
for
WTI
Oil
and
HHUB
gas
for
the
next
60
months
as
of
December
3,
2012
(21.13:1)
(4)
Enterprise value adjusted to remove the value of McMoRan’s Conventional Assets
Financial Analysis


Confidential
17
(1)
Based on Company provided reserve and I/B/E/S estimates
Relevant Multiples
Value Range ($MM)
Metric
Data
(1)
Low
High
Low
High
Conventional Assets
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
208.5
$2.50 / Mcfe
$3.25 / Mcfe
$521
$678
LQ Production (Mcfed)
133,809
$6,500 / Mcfed
$7,000 / Mcfed
$870
$937
2012E EBITDAX ($MM)
159.0
3.5x
4.2x
$557
$668
Selected Conventional Asset Value Range
$550
$675
Ultra-Deep Assets
Net Risked Resources (Bcfe)
17,887
$0.10 / Mcfe
$0.18 / Mcfe
$1,789
$3,220
Implied Enterprise Value Range
$2,339
$3,895
Add: Cash
192
192
Less: Debt
(568)
(300)
Less: Preferred Shares
(700)
0
Implied Equity Value
$1,263
$3,787
Diluted Shares Outstanding
164.3
231.8
Implied Equity Value per Share
$7.68
$16.33
Financial Analysis
Peer Group Trading Analysis – Valuation Summary
Peer Group Trading Analysis – Valuation Summary


Confidential
18
Selected Precedent Gulf of Mexico Shelf M&A Transactions
Source: IHS Herold
(1) Represents 19% of the total transaction value which is the share McMoRan allocated to proved reserves
Trans.
Reserves
Production
Implied Value /
HHUB
WTI
Date
Buyer
Seller
Value
Proved Res.
% Gas
% Dev.
Prod.
% Gas
R/P
Proved Res.
Production
12-Mo Strip
12-Mo Strip
($MM)
(Bcfe)
(%)
(%)
(Mcfed)
(%)
(Years)
($/Mcfe)
($/Mcfed)
($/bbl)
18-Oct-12
NGP/Northstar
Undisclosed Private
$160
44.4
--
--
12,600
--
9.7
$3.60
$12,698
$3.91
$94.01
26-Sep-12
Arena Energy
McMoRan
$37
15.2
78%
22%
10,000
70%
4.2
$2.42
$3,680
$3.49
$92.50
17-Sep-12
EPL
Hilcorp
$550
217.8
46%
42%
60,000
50%
9.9
$2.53
$9,167
$3.42
$99.87
7-Sep-12
Renaissance
McMoRan
$28
7.4
23%
--
--
--
--
$3.81
--
$3.26
$96.84
15-May-12
EPL
W&T
$32
6.0
49%
84%
5,760
48%
2.9
$5.40
$5,621
$3.02
$95.94
2-Feb-12
SandRidge
Dynamic/Riverstone
$1,256
375.0
50%
50%
150,000
50%
6.8
$3.35
$8,371
$2.89
$99.10
1-Dec-11
KNOC/SCL/STX/Samchully
NGP/Northstar
$201
64.8
30%
--
28,200
30%
6.3
$3.10
$7,128
$3.75
$99.69
1-Nov-11
Apache
Stone
$38
7.8
4%
100%
2,460
1%
8.7
$4.92
$15,610
$4.09
$92.81
1-Nov-11
EPL
Stone
$38
7.8
4%
100%
2,460
1%
8.7
$4.92
$15,610
$4.09
$92.81
25-Aug-11
Dynamic Offshore
Moreno/SPN
$68
21.3
35%
92%
8,214
35%
7.1
$3.19
$8,279
$4.20
$87.47
29-Jul-11
Dynamic Offshore
Exxon Mobil
$183
81.0
61%
72%
42,000
60%
5.3
$2.25
$4,345
$4.52
$99.76
1-May-11
Dynamic Offshore
Gryphon/Woodside
$28
12.6
88%
100%
--
--
--
$2.18
--
$4.98
$114.41
7-Apr-11
TRT/Tana
Maritech/TETRA
$150
54.6
37%
89%
--
--
--
$2.75
--
$4.57
$110.21
9-Mar-11
Undisclosed
National Fuel/Seneca
$70
34.4
74%
75%
28,793
76%
3.3
$2.03
$2,431
$4.28
$106.32
13-Jan-11
EPL
Anglo-Suisse
$201
48.6
16%
76%
18,000
8%
7.4
$4.13
$11,150
$4.72
$94.89
21-Nov-10
Energy XXI (Bermuda)
Exxon Mobil
$1,012
296.7
39%
68%
120,000
47%
6.8
$3.41
$8,433
$4.37
$83.60
20-Sep-10
McMoRan
Plains
$158
(1)
60.0
85%
--
45,000
85%
3.7
$2.63
$3,501
$4.44
$79.08
3-Nov-10
W&T
Shell
$37
54.4
72%
--
26,700
73%
5.6
$0.67
$1,375
$4.21
$86.18
Maximum
$1,256
375.0
88%
100%
150,000
85%
9.9
$5.40
$15,610
$4.98
$114.41
Minimum
$28
6.0
4%
22%
2,460
1%
2.9
$0.67
$1,375
$2.89
$79.08
Mean
$240
78.3
47%
75%
37,346
45%
6.4
$3.18
$7,827
$4.01
$95.86
Median
$70
46.5
46%
76%
26,700
49%
6.8
$3.15
$8,279
$4.15
$95.41
Financial Analysis
Precedent Transactions – Gulf of Mexico Shelf


Confidential
Source:  IHS Herolds
19
Selected Precedent Gulf Coast Onshore M&A Transactions
Financial Analysis
Trans.
Reserves
Production
Implied Value /
HHUB
WTI
Date
Buyer
Seller
Value
Proved Res.
% Gas
% Dev.
Prod.
% Gas
R/P
Proved Res.
Production
12-Mo Strip
12-Mo Strip
($MM)
(Bcfe)
(%)
(%)
(Mcfed)
(%)
(Years)
($/Mcfe)
($/Mcfed)
($/MMBtu)
($/bbl)
12-Oct-12
Texas Petr.
Forest
$220
45.0
38%
--
20,000
35%
6.2
$4.89
$11,000
$3.97
$93.91
4-Oct-12
Undisclosed
Carrizo
$20
--
--
--
5,720
87%
--
--
$3,409
$3.77
$89.73
19-Mar-12
Undisclosed
Comstock
$123
63.2
84%
--
11,296
81%
15.3
$1.95
$10,889
$2.92
$108.62
4-Nov-11
Undisclosed
Plains
$185
120.0
100%
--
39,000
100%
8.4
$1.54
$4,744
$3.96
$93.30
31-Aug-11
Encore Energy Part.
Undisclosed
$48
12.6
17%
100%
2,580
17%
13.4
$3.78
$18,450
$4.29
$90.64
17-Aug-11
EnergyQuest II
Swift
$54
92.2
65%
19%
10,600
65%
23.8
$0.58
$5,047
$4.31
$88.50
6-Jun-11
Linc Energy Ltd.
ERG
$236
123.0
6%
--
18,600
6%
18.1
$1.92
$12,688
$4.93
$102.35
13-May-11
Undisclosed Private
Energy XXI (Bermuda)
$41
--
--
--
9,710
82%
--
--
$4,222
$4.57
$100.07
3-Mar-11
Legend Nat. Gas
Smith
$99
--
--
--
8,800
65%
--
--
$11,273
$4.25
$104.61
18-Jan-11
Gulf Coast Energy
Cypress
$95
--
--
--
11,020
91%
--
--
$8,621
$4.73
$94.51
17-Jan-11
Undisclosed
Strike
$22
8.3
--
--
--
--
--
$2.63
--
$4.71
$95.10
Maximum
$236
123.0
100%
100%
39,000
100%
23.8
$4.89
$18,450
$4.93
$108.62
Minimum
$20
8.3
6%
19%
2,580
6%
6.2
$0.58
$3,409
$2.92
$88.50
Mean
$104
66.3
52%
59%
13,733
63%
14.2
$2.47
$9,034
$4.22
$96.48
Median
$95
63.2
52%
59%
10,810
73%
14.4
$1.95
$9,755
$4.29
$94.51
Precedent Transactions – Gulf Coast Onshore


Confidential
Source:  IHS Herolds
(1) Represents 81% of the total transaction value which is the share McMoRan allocated to unevaluated oil and gas property
GOM Deepwater (Net Recoverable Resources)
Ultra-
Deep Shelf (Net Unrisked Potential)
Trans.
Ultra-Deep Net
Transaction Value /
HHUB
WTI
Date
Buyer
Seller
Value
Unrisked Potential
Ultra-Deep Net Unrisked Potential
12-Mo Strip
12-Mo Strip
($MM)
(Tcfe)
($/Mcfe)
($/MMBtu)
($/bbl)
20-Sep-10
McMoRan
Plains
$672
(1)
6.6
$0.10
$4.44
$79.08
8-Sep-11
McMoRan
Whitney
$49
0.1
$0.57
$4.33
$90.18
20
Financial Analysis
Trans.
Net Recoverable
Implied Value /
HHUB
WTI
Date
Buyer
Seller
Value
Resources
Net Recoverable Resources
12-Mo Strip
12-Mo Strip
($MM)
(Bcfe)
($/Mcfe)
($/MMBtu)
($/bbl)
2-Jul-12
INPEX
Anadarko
$556
129.6
$4.29
$3.29
$87.14
1-Oct-10
Hess
BP
$40
144.0
$0.28
$4.28
$83.28
22-Dec-09
Maersk/Various
Devon
$1,300
1,645.0
$0.79
$5.90
$76.43
Maximum
$1,300
1,645.0
$4.29
$5.90
$87.14
Minimum
$40
129.6
$0.28
$3.29
$76.43
Mean
$632
639.5
$1.79
$4.49
$82.28
Median
$556
144.0
$0.79
$4.28
$83.28
Precedent Transactions – GOM Deepwater (Non-Proved) and Ultra-Deep Shelf


Confidential
Gross Unrisked
Net Unrisked
Gross Risked
Net Risked
Prospect
Category
WI
NRI
Resource Potential
Resource Potential
Resource Potential
Resource Potential
Low
High
Low
High
%
%
Bcfe
Bcfe
Bcfe
Bcfe
$/Mcfe
$/Mcfe
$MM
$MM
Offshore
Davy Jones
Discovery
63.4%
50.2%
3,248
                         
1,631
                         
2,321
                         
1,165
                         
0.50
$      
0.60
$      
$583
$699
Blackbeard East
Discovery
72.0%
57.4%
1,040
                         
597
                            
737
                            
423
                            
0.25
$      
0.50
$      
106
             
211
             
Lafitte
Discovery
72.0%
58.3%
2,342
                         
1,365
                         
1,601
                         
933
                            
0.25
$      
0.50
$      
233
             
467
             
Blackbeard West
Discovery
69.4%
53.1%
804
                            
427
                            
592
                            
315
                            
0.25
$      
0.50
$      
79
               
157
             
Offshore Discoveries Total
7,434
                        
4,020
                        
5,252
                        
2,836
                        
$1,000
$1,535
England
Prospect
36.0%
28.8%
27,300
                       
7,862
                         
7,487
                         
2,156
                         
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
$216
$323
Barbosa
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
2,588
                         
1,491
                         
721
                            
415
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
42
               
62
               
Morgan
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
1,000
                         
576
                            
281
                            
162
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
16
               
24
               
Barataria
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
2,820
                         
1,624
                         
776
                            
447
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
45
               
67
               
Blackbeard West #3
Prospect
69.4%
55.5%
498
                            
276
                            
288
                            
160
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
16
               
24
               
Drake
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
14,580
                       
8,398
                         
3,765
                         
2,169
                         
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
217
             
325
             
Davy Jones West
Prospect
36.0%
28.8%
1,400
                         
403
                            
391
                            
113
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
11
               
17
               
Hurricane
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
1,575
                         
907
                            
446
                            
257
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
26
               
39
               
Hook
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
4,890
                         
2,817
                         
1,257
                         
724
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
72
               
109
             
Captain Blood
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
18,000
                       
10,368
                       
4,957
                         
2,855
                         
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
286
             
428
             
Bonnet
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
3,150
                         
1,814
                         
788
                            
454
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
45
               
68
               
Queen Anne's Revenge
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
1,296
                         
746
                            
336
                            
194
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
19
               
29
               
Calico Jack
Prospect
36.0%
28.8%
7,000
                         
2,016
                         
1,931
                         
556
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
56
               
83
               
Offshore Prospects Total
86,097
                      
39,300
                      
23,424
                      
10,661
                       
$1,066
$1,599
Onshore
Lineham Creek - Yegua
Discovery
36.0%
28.8%
3,000
                         
864
                            
2,176
                         
627
                            
0.50
$      
0.75
$      
314
             
470
             
Onshore Discoveries Total
3,000
                        
864
                           
2,176
                         
627
                           
$314
$470
Highlander
Near Term Drill
72.0%
57.6%
13,300
                       
7,661
                         
3,578
                         
2,061
                         
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
$206
$309
Lineham
Drilling
36.0%
28.8%
10,800
                       
3,110
                         
2,976
                         
857
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
86
               
129
             
Tortuga
Prospect
72.0%
57.6%
5,590
                         
3,220
                         
1,465
                         
844
                            
0.10
$      
0.15
$      
84
               
127
             
Onshore Prospects Total
29,690
                      
13,991
                       
8,020
                        
3,762
                        
$376
$564
Total Ultra-Deep
126,221
                     
58,175
                       
38,872
                      
17,887
                       
$2,756
$4,168
Metric Used
Implied Valuation
Ultra-Deep Shelf Valuation Precedent Transactions
21
Financial Analysis
Precedent Transactions – Ultra-Deep Shelf Value


Confidential
22
Relevant Multiples
Value Range ($MM)
Metric
Data
Low
High
Low
High
Gulf of Mexico Shelf
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
183.8
$2.50 / Mcfe
$3.50 / Mcfe
$460
$643
Current Production (Mcfed)
103,211
$5,000 / Mcfed
$7,000 / Mcfed
$516
$722
Selected Gulf of Mexico Shelf Value Range
$475
$650
Gulf Coast Onshore
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
24.7
$2.50 / Mcfe
$4.00 / Mcfe
$62
$99
Current Production (Mcfed)
30,598
$3,500 / Mcfed
$5,000 / Mcfed
$107
$153
Selected Gulf Coast Onshore Value Range
$75
$125
Total Conventional Asset Value Range
$550
$775
Ultra-Deep Assets
Net Risked Resources (Bcfe)
17,887
Various (See Previous Page)
$2,756
$4,168
Implied Enterprise Value Range
$3,306
$4,943
Add: Cash
192
192
Less: Debt
(568)
(300)
Less: Preferred Shares
(700)
0
Implied Equity Value
$2,230
$4,835
Diluted Shares Outstanding
165.3
232.1
Implied Equity Value per Share
$13.49
$20.83
Financial Analysis
Precedent Transactions – Valuation Summary
Precedent Asset Transactions – Valuation Summary


Confidential
23
Source: IHS Herold, FactSet
Note: Only includes transactions greater than $100 million
Trans.
Equity
Equity Value /
Transaction Value /
Premium
Reserve & Production Statistics
HHUB
WTI
Date
Buyer
Seller
Value
Value
Cash Flow
Cash Flow
EBITDA
EBITDA
Proved Res.
Prod.
1 Day
1-Mo.
2-Mo.
Proved Res.
% Gas
% Dev.
R/P
Spot Price
Spot Price
($MM)
($MM)
Current
Forward
Current
Forward
($/Mcfe)
($/Mcfed)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(Bcfe)
(%)
(%)
(Years)
($/MMBtu)
($/bbl)
25-Apr-12
Halcon
GeoResources
$945
$973
7.8x
6.1x
6.8x
5.2x
$4.97
$18,175
23%
12%
26%
190.2
36%
70%
12.4
$1.97
$103.16
17-Oct-11
Statoil ASA
Brigham Exploration
$4,822
$4,468
14.7x
7.7x
14.5x
8.0x
$12.03
$47,837
20%
26%
11%
400.8
22%
35%
10.9
3.49
86.80
15-Jul-11
BHP Billiton
Petrohawk
$15,223
$12,085
10.1x
7.3x
10.3x
7.6x
$2.75
$11,274
65%
49%
46%
3,391.5
92%
35%
11.2
4.42
95.69
9-Nov-10
Chevron
Atlas Energy
$4,315
$3,215
18.1x
15.2x
17.1x
15.6x
$1.73
$17,608
37%
62%
49%
847.0
99%
44%
27.9
3.49
87.06
2-Jun-10
SandRidge Energy
Arena Resources
$1,287
$1,394
8.4x
6.4x
7.9x
6.1x
$3.05
$25,728
7%
(6%)
2%
415.5
14%
37%
23.1
4.39
72.58
15-Apr-10
Apache
Mariner Energy
$4,685
$2,770
5.3x
4.0x
7.6x
5.7x
$3.13
$10,944
45%
68%
92%
1,087.1
53%
66%
9.6
4.15
85.84
14-Dec-09
Exxon Mobil
XTO
$40,496
$31,254
5.3x
5.8x
5.9x
6.6x
$1.92
$9,797
25%
24%
20%
14,827.3
84%
61%
14.0
5.21
69.87
1-Nov-09
Denbury Resources
Encore Acquisition Co.
$4,465
$2,864
6.8x
6.9x
10.7x
8.8x
$2.72
$13,256
35%
34%
38%
1,321.7
33%
80%
13.4
4.11
77.00
27-Apr-09
Atlas Energy, Inc.
Atlas Energy Resources
$1,015
$482
2.4x
2.4x
3.3x
3.2x
$1.46
$14,827
0%
60%
(5%)
517.6
99%
60%
27.9
3.31
50.80
30-Apr-08
Stone Energy
Bois d'Arc Energy
$1,750
$1,736
5.4x
5.0x
5.6x
4.9x
$4.48
$13,068
(4%)
21%
32%
335.0
57%
74%
8.0
10.94
115.63
17-Jul-07
Plains E&P
Pogo Producing Co.
$3,749
$3,594
5.5x
6.2x
5.5x
5.2x
$2.48
$11,095
18%
11%
19%
1,314.0
65%
73%
12.2
6.32
74.15
7-Jan-07
Forest Oil
Houston Exploration
$1,827
$1,574
4.2x
3.6x
4.1x
3.8x
$2.42
$7,844
8%
(7%)
(4%)
699.3
96%
67%
8.9
5.52
56.31
23-Jun-06
Anadarko
Western Gas Res.
$5,385
$4,800
10.7x
9.9x
10.6x
9.0x
$2.90
$13,563
49%
9%
24%
920.8
97%
43%
12.8
6.51
70.49
23-Jun-06
Anadarko
Kerr-McGee
$19,623
$16,500
7.1x
5.7x
7.3x
5.7x
$3.14
$11,450
40%
27%
51%
5,388.0
62%
60%
10.0
6.51
70.49
21-Apr-06
Petrohawk
KCS Energy
$2,008
$1,630
5.5x
4.7x
5.8x
4.9x
$3.54
$10,822
10%
46%
15%
463.0
88%
73%
8.4
7.93
71.95
23-Jan-06
Helix
Remington
$1,312
$1,385
6.5x
4.7x
6.0x
4.4x
$4.29
$14,622
22%
23%
27%
278.9
60%
57%
9.3
8.78
68.35
12-Dec-05
ConocoPhillips
Burlington Resources
$36,400
$34,639
7.7x
6.6x
6.4x
5.3x
$2.58
$11,173
19%
26%
20%
12,484.2
68%
73%
11.8
15.02
59.39
13-Oct-05
Occidental Petroleu
Vintage Petroleum
$4,119
$3,539
7.9x
7.4x
7.0x
6.1x
$1.38
$7,929
32%
31%
53%
2,623.2
32%
67%
15.7
13.68
64.12
19-Sep-05
Norsk Hydro ASA
Spinnaker Exploration
$2,592
$2,596
8.2x
6.8x
7.9x
6.0x
$6.04
$15,847
49%
43%
36%
373.6
49%
34%
7.2
11.24
63.00
Max
$40,496
18.1x
15.2x
17.1x
15.6x
$12.03
$47,837
65%
68%
92%
14,827
99%
80%
27.9
$15.02
$115.63
Mean
$8,212
7.8x
6.4x
7.9x
6.4x
$3.53
$15,098
26%
29%
29%
2,520
63%
58%
13.4
6.68
75.93
Median
$4,119
7.1x
6.2x
7.0x
5.7x
$2.90
$13,068
23%
26%
26%
847
62%
61%
11.8
5.52
71.95
Min
$945
2.4x
2.4x
3.3x
3.2x
$1.38
$7,844
(4%)
(7%)
(5%)
190
14%
34%
7.2
1.97
50.80
Financial Analysis
Precedent M&A Transactions – Corporate


Confidential
24
(1)
Estimates as per MMR Operating Model
Financial Analysis
Relevant Multiples
Value Range ($MM)
Metric
Data
Low
High
Low
High
2012E Cash Flow ($MM)
132.2
14.5x
18.0x
$3,028
$3,532
2013E Cash Flow ($MM)
119.1
10.0x
15.0x
$2,284
$2,894
2012E EBITDAX ($MM)
175.4
14.5x
17.0x
$2,543
$2,982
2013E EBITDAX ($MM)
175.1
12.0x
15.5x
$2,101
$2,714
Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
208.5
$8.00 / Mcfe
$12.00 / Mcfe
$1,668
$2,502
LQ Production (Mcfed)
133,809
$20,000 / Mcfed
$25,000 / Mcfed
$2,676
$3,345
Selected Enterprise Value Range
$2,500
$3,000
Add: Cash
192
192
Less: Debt
(568)
(568)
Less: Preferred Shares
(700)
(700)
Implied Equity Value
$1,424
$1,924
Diluted Shares Outstanding
164.5
164.9
Implied Equity Value per Share
$8.66
$11.67
Precedent M&A Transactions – Valuation Summary
Precedent Corporate Transactions – Valuation Summary


Confidential
25
Source: Capital IQ
Note: Includes public corporate takeover transactions announced or closed in 2012 YTD between $1.0 billion and $10.0 billion
Selected Valuation Range
Relevant Multiples
Value Range ($MM)
Metric
Metric
Low
High
Low
High
1 Day Premium
$8.72
20.0%
30.0%
$10.46
$11.34
5 Day Premium
$8.18
25.0%
35.0%
$10.23
$11.04
1 Month Premium
$12.13
30.0%
40.0%
$15.77
$16.98
Implied Equity Value Range
$10.23
$16.98
Financial Analysis
Announced
Transaction
Premiums
Date
Target/Issuer
Buyers/Investors
Value ($MM)
1 Day Prior
5 Day Prior
1 Month
11/27/12
Ralcorp Holdings Inc.
ConAgra Foods, Inc.
$7,045
28.2%
26.6%
24.2%
11/15/12
Schiff Nutrition International Inc.
Reckitt Benckiser LLC
1,453
23.9%
23.8%
72.7%
11/9/12
Titanium Metals Corporation
Precision Castparts Corp.
3,011
44.2%
38.7%
35.7%
11/1/12
JDA Software Group Inc.
RedPrairie Corporation
2,213
18.0%
32.6%
39.2%
10/25/12
PSS World Medical Inc.
McKesson Corporation
1,941
34.3%
31.3%
25.8%
10/22/12
Ancestry.com Inc.
Permira/Spectrum
1,609
9.7%
11.8%
3.3%
10/18/12
Orient-Express Hotels Ltd.
The Indian Hotels Company Limited
1,828
40.0%
46.0%
32.8%
10/11/12
Oshkosh Corporation
Carl C. Icahn
3,636
21.0%
15.7%
21.5%
10/8/12
TPC Group Inc
Innospec Inc.
1,093
16.8%
15.6%
12.2%
9/27/12
Sealy Corporation
Tempur-Pedic International Inc.
1,018
2.8%
7.8%
39.2%
9/13/12
Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc
FirstMerit Corporation
1,025
18.3%
15.0%
17.8%
9/6/12
American Realty Capital Trust, Inc.
Realty Income Corp.
2,882
2.1%
3.8%
8.9%
9/3/12
Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc.
3,158
39.4%
34.5%
31.0%
8/27/12
Kenexa Corp.
IBM
1,397
42.0%
38.0%
86.7%
8/27/12
TPC Group Inc
First Reserve/SK Capital Partners
1,083
16.7%
14.9%
15.5%
8/22/12
Sunrise Senior Living Inc.
Health Care REIT, Inc.
1,469
62.4%
73.9%
117.7%
8/20/12
Coventry Health Care Inc.
Aetna Inc.
7,311
20.4%
30.3%
31.0%
8/13/12
Focus Media Holding Ltd.
The Carlyle Group
3,688
15.5%
28.1%
38.5%
8/9/12
Robbins & Myers Inc.
National Oilwell Varco, Inc.
2,570
28.2%
35.0%
43.7%
8/6/12
Best Buy Co., Inc.
Richard Schulze
9,875
47.4%
44.0%
20.4%
7/9/12
AMERIGROUP Corporation
WellPoint Inc.
5,104
43.0%
40.6%
47.2%
6/29/12
Elster Group SE
Melrose Industries PLC
2,881
5.8%
8.8%
46.0%
3/12/12
Pacific Capital Bancorp
UnionBanCal Corporation
1,525
60.3%
60.2%
61.3%
2/21/12
CH Energy Group Inc.
Fortis Inc.
1,500
10.6%
12.4%
15.5%
2/16/12
CVR Energy, Inc.
Icahn Enterprises Holdings L.P.
3,231
8.7%
6.7%
27.7%
Mean
26.4%
27.8%
36.6%
Median
21.0%
28.1%
31.0%
Precedent M&A Transactions – Corporate Takeover Premiums – 100% Cash Consideration


Confidential
Research Analyst Recommendations and Price Targets
26
Summary Price Targets
Analyst Recommendations
Buy
50.0%
Hold
30.0%
Sell
20.0%
(1) Analyst 12-month price target discounted back to present value at McMoRan’s equity cost of capital of 13.3% to estimate a current share price target
12-Month
Discounted
Firm Name
Analyst
Recommendation
Date
Price Target
Price Target
(1)
Susquehanna Financial Group
Duane Grubert
Positive
11/29/2012
$18.00
$15.89
Ladenburg Thalmann & Co
Noel A Parks
buy
11/28/2012
21.00
18.53
Capital One Southcoast, Inc.
Richard Tullis
add
11/28/2012
12.00
10.59
EVA Dimensions
Team Coverage
underweight
11/28/2012
--
--
JP Morgan
Joseph Allman
underweight
11/27/2012
--
--
RBC Capital Markets
Leo P Mariani
sector perform
11/27/2012
10.00
8.83
Howard Weil Inc
Joseph Bachmann
market perform
11/27/2012
15.00
13.24
Iberia
Patrick Rigamer
outperform
11/27/2012
--
--
Jefferies
Biju Z Perincheril
hold
11/27/2012
12.00
10.59
Guggenheim Securities LLC
Robert Cordray
buy
11/26/2012
20.00
17.65
Premium/(Discount)
Price Target
to Market
Max
$21.00
146.2%
Min
10.00
17.2%
Median
15.00
75.8%
Average
15.43
80.9%
Financial Analysis


Confidential
($ in millions)
27
Financial Analysis
Evercore also considered the risked net asset value
of MMR assuming the Company enters into a
hypothetical joint venture agreement
MMR would sell a 25.0% working interest in
the Ultra-Deep Assets for $800 million in the
form of a combination of cash and drilling
capex carry
$500 million of upfront cash
$300 million of drilling capex carry
NYMEX strip pricing as of December 3,
2012 through 2017E and then held flat
thereafter
Utilizes the NAV Assumptions
Partner pays its working interest share of
insurance and operating expenses, and after
the carry period, its working interest share of
capex
Partner tax basis step-up based on upfront
cash plus the present value of the capex carry
Taxable gain taxed at 35%
Discount
Commodity Price
Rate
NYMEX Strip (12/3/12)
Low
High
Proved Developed Producing
8% -
10%
$253
$258
Proved Developed Behind-Pipe
10% -
12%
513
550
Proved Undeveloped
15% -
20%
39
48
Proved Reserves
$805
$857
Probable
20% -
30%
90
128
Proved plus Probable Reserves
$895
$985
Possible
30% -
40%
80
102
3P Reserves
$975
$1,087
Ultra Deep Upside (Risked)
10% -
12%
3,333
4,412
P&A (Developed Properties)
8% -
10%
(212)
(224)
Gross Asset Value
$4,095
$5,275
Less: G&A
12% -
15%
(463)
(575)
Less: Insurance
8% -
10%
(260)
(327)
Less: Sulphur Reclaimation Expense
10% -
10%
(19)
(19)
Pre-Tax Net Asset Value
$3,352
$4,354
Less: Cash Taxes
12% -
15%
(649)
(933)
After-Tax Net Asset Value
$2,704
$3,421
Add: Cash
192
192
Add: Upfront Cash from Joint Venture
500
500
Less: Taxable Gain from Joint Venture
(72)
(72)
Less: Debt
(568)
(300)
Less: Preferred Shares
(700)
0
Equity Value
$2,056
$3,741
Fully Diluted Shares
165.1
231.9
$/Share
$12.46
$16.13
Net Asset Value Analysis – Potential Joint Venture Agreement
NAV Summary – Potential Joint Venture


Confidential
28
Volumes and risking for specific ultra-deep prospects and discoveries (as per MMR estimates)
Geologic and mechanical risking was estimated by Evercore and reviewed by MMR’s technical team with Evercore
Utilized an expected value analysis based on the assumed geologic and mechanical risking
Each well has a 200 Bcfe EUR
Developed using a continuous four rig program through 2014, going to a six rig program in 2015 and finally an eight rig program by 2016,
held constant thereafter
Lineham
Creek
Yegua
wells
begin
drilling
in
January
2014
with
an
incremental
non-operated
drilling
rig
Production for each well of 70 MMcfed held flat for six years, then exponential decline (as per MMR estimates)
Condensate is 5% of well stream (8.8 bbl/MMcf); Lineham Creek Yegua wells assumed a condensate ratio of 50.0 bbl/MMcf
Wells take 1 year to drill and 6 months to complete with first production after 18 months
NYMEX strip pricing as of December 3, 2012 through 2017E and then held flat thereafter
Natural gas prices of ($/Mcfe): 2013E: $3.73; 2014E: $4.10; 2015E: $4.27; 2016E: $4.42; Thereafter: $4.60 flat
$0.15
per
Mcfe
of
marketing
and
transportation
costs
(as
per
MMR
estimates)
ORRI Trust units based on fully-diluted shares as of December 31, 2012
Term of 20 years
5% ORRI
Financial Analysis
Overriding Royalty Interest Analysis – Assumptions


Confidential
Overriding Royalty Interest –
Risked
($ in millions, except per share values)
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2022E
Risked
Ultra Deep Revenue
$--
$54.1
$278.1
$542.6
$929.1
$1,350.6
$1,821.9
$2,260.4
$2,406.8
$2,456.1
Marketing and Transportation Costs
--
(1.8)
(8.7)
(16.6)
(26.7)
(38.8)
(52.4)
(65.1)
(69.2)
(70.5)
Severance and Ad Valorem Taxes
--
--
(2.0)
(5.5)
(9.2)
(12.7)
(16.2)
(21.9)
(36.0)
(49.6)
Net Ultra Deep Revenue
$--
$52.3
$267.4
$520.4
$893.3
$1,299.1
$1,753.2
$2,173.4
$2,301.6
$2,336.0
Overriding Royalty Interest
5.0% of Revenue
$--
$2.6
$13.4
$26.0
$44.7
$65.0
$87.7
$108.7
$115.1
$116.8
29
Strip
$75/ $3
$90/ $4
$105/ $5
8.0%
$609.9
$417.2
$548.9
$680.6
9.0%
557.1
381.1
501.4
621.7
10.0%
509.9
348.9
459.0
569.2
11.0%
467.8
320.1
421.1
522.2
12.0%
430.0
294.2
387.2
480.1
15.0%
338.0
231.3
304.4
377.5
20.0%
234.3
160.5
211.2
262.0
Price Deck
Strip
$75/ $3
$90/ $4
$105/ $5
8.0%
$2.66
$1.82
$2.39
$2.97
9.0%
2.43
1.66
2.19
2.71
10.0%
2.22
1.52
2.00
2.48
11.0%
2.04
1.40
1.84
2.28
12.0%
1.88
1.28
1.69
2.09
15.0%
1.47
1.01
1.33
1.65
20.0%
1.02
0.70
0.92
1.14
Price Deck
Financial Analysis
(1)
Based on a $16.90 per share aggregate implied offer value and 229.2 million ORRI Trust units (based on 231.9 million fully diluted shares assuming a December 31, 2012 closing date, less converted options and RSUs that roll into
Freeport options and RSUs)
Overriding Royalty Interest Summary – Risked
Risked Sensitivity (20 Year Term, 5%) – Price (Total 
Value)
Risked Sensitivity (20 Year Term, 5%) – Price
($/unit)
(1)


Confidential
($ in millions, except per share values)
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2022E
Unrisked
Ultra Deep Revenue
$--
$70.5
$372.8
$731.5
$1,260.1
$1,845.4
$2,491.9
$3,172.6
$3,736.9
$4,201.5
Marketing and Transportation Costs
--
(2.3)
(11.7)
(22.4)
(36.2)
(53.1)
(71.8)
(91.6)
(107.9)
(121.4)
Severance and Ad Valorem Taxes
--
--
(2.5)
(7.2)
(12.2)
(17.1)
(21.9)
(34.6)
(78.4)
(124.0)
Net Ultra Deep Revenue
$--
$68.2
$358.6
$701.9
$1,211.7
$1,775.3
$2,398.2
$3,046.4
$3,550.6
$3,956.0
Overriding Royalty Interest
5.0% of Revenue
$--
$3.4
$17.9
$35.1
$60.6
$88.8
$119.9
$152.3
$177.5
$197.8
30
Strip
$75/ $3
$90/ $4
$105/ $5
8.0%
$1,177.4
$801.2
$1,056.1
$1,311.0
9.0%
1,062.7
723.2
953.3
1,183.4
10.0%
961.6
654.5
862.7
1,070.9
11.0%
872.1
593.8
782.6
971.5
12.0%
792.9
539.9
711.6
883.4
15.0%
603.9
411.5
542.3
673.2
20.0%
399.7
272.7
359.4
446.0
Strip
$75/ $3
$90/ $4
$105/ $5
8.0%
$5.14
$3.50
$4.61
$5.72
9.0%
4.64
3.16
4.16
5.16
10.0%
4.20
2.86
3.76
4.67
11.0%
3.81
2.59
3.41
4.24
12.0%
3.46
2.36
3.10
3.85
15.0%
2.63
1.80
2.37
2.94
20.0%
1.74
1.19
1.57
1.95
Price Deck
Price Deck
Financial Analysis
(1)
Based on a $16.90 per share aggregate implied offer value and 229.2 million ORRI Trust units (based on 231.9 million fully diluted shares assuming a December 31, 2012 closing date, less converted options and RSUs that roll into
Freeport options and RSUs)
Unrisked Sensitivity (20 Year Term, 5%) – Price ($/unit)
(1)
Overriding Royalty Interest Summary – Unrisked
Overriding Royalty Interest – Unrisked
Unrisked Sensitivity (20 Year Term, 5%) – Price (Total Value)


Appendix


Confidential
Unrisked Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
31
Summary Results
EBITDA Multiple Sensitivity
Perpetuity Growth Rate Sensitivity
WACC
EBITDA Multiple
$4,101.1
4.0x
4.5x
5.0x
5.5x
6.0x
9.0%
$3,675
$4,010
$4,346
$4,681
$5,017
10.0%
3,467
3,784
4,101
4,418
4,735
11.0%
3,272
3,572
3,872
4,171
4,471
12.0%
3,088
3,372
3,656
3,940
4,223
13.0%
2,916
3,185
3,453
3,722
3,991
WACC
Perpetuity Growth Rate
$5,291.2
(0.5%)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
9.0%
$5,559
$5,837
$6,148
$6,497
$6,893
10.0%
4,837
5,053
5,291
5,556
5,853
11.0%
4,246
4,417
4,604
4,810
5,038
12.0%
3,755
3,892
4,042
4,205
4,384
13.0%
3,341
3,453
3,575
3,706
3,849
Appendix
(1)
EBITDA and capex projections based on MMR Operating Model. Tax depreciation based on existing MMR tax basis and NOLs and a 7-year MACRS depreciation schedule.  Valuation date as of October 1, 2012
Terminal Value
For the Years Ending December 31,
EBITDA
Perpetuity
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
Exit Multiple
Growth Rate
Adjusted EBITDA
$175
$434
$719
$939
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
Less: DD&A
(396)
(785)
(747)
(682)
(627)
--
EBIT
(221)
(352)
(27)
258
514
$1,141.7
Less: Taxes @ 35.0%
--
--
--
--
--
(399.6)
EBIAT
(221)
(352)
(27)
258
514
$742.1
Plus: DD&A
396
785
747
682
627
--
Less: Growth Capital Expenditures
(500)
(749)
(551)
(489)
(493)
--
Unlevered FCF
($324.9)
($315.3)
$168.4
$450.5
$649.2
$742.1
Terminal Value Multiple/Growth Rate
5.0x
0.5%
PV of Terminal Value @ 10.0%
$3,171
$4,362
Plus: Present Value of Unlevered FCF
778
Plus: PV of 0.5x 2017E NOL @ 10.0%
151
Implied Enterprise Value
$4,101
-
$5,291
Add: Cash
$192
$192
Less: Debt
($300)
($300)
Less: Preferred Shares
$--
$--
Implied Equity Value
$3,993
$5,183
Diluted Shares Outstanding
231.8
232.0
Implied Equity Value per Share
$17.22
$22.34