Exhibit C3
| 21 FEBRUARY 2007 |
PRESENTATION TO THE SPECIAL COMMITTEE
Project Tolstoy
LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
Important Notice
The information herein has been prepared by Lazard & Co., Limited and Lazard Frères & Co. LLC (collectively, “Lazard”) based upon information supplied by Moscow CableCom Corporation (“MOCC” or the “Company”) or publicly available information, and portions of the information herein may be based upon certain statements, estimates and forecasts provided by the Company with respect to the anticipated future performance of the Company. We have relied upon the accuracy and completeness of the foregoing information, and have not assumed any responsibility for any independent verification of such information or any independent valuation or appraisal of any of the assets or liabilities of the Company, or concerning the solvency or fair value of the Company, and have not been furnished with any such valuation or appraisal. We have not addressed the solvency or fair value of the Company or any other entity under any state, federal or other applicable laws relating to bankruptcy, insolvency or similar matters. With respect of the financial forecasts relied upon for purposes of our opinion, we have assumed that they have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgements as to the future competitive, operating and regulatory environments and related financial performance of the Company. We assume no responsibility for and express no view as to such forecasts or the assumptions on which they are based. The information set forth herein is based upon economic, monetary, market and other conditions as in effect on, and the information made available to us as of, the date hereof. These materials and the information contained herein are confidential and may not be disclosed publicly or made available to third parties without the prior written consent of Lazard. Lazard is acting as investment banker to the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company only and will not be responsible to anyone else for providing the protections afforded to clients of Lazard, and will not be responsible for and will not provide any tax, accounting, actuarial, legal or other specialist advice.
|
LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
Table of Contents
I INTRODUCTION |
1 | |
II MOCC – FINANCIAL FORECASTS |
8 | |
III MOCC – FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
10 | |
IV ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS |
18 | |
APPENDICES |
||
A MOCC Financial Forecasts |
22 | |
B MOCC – Corporate Adjustments |
25 | |
C Selected Public Companies |
26 | |
D Selected Precedent Transactions |
27 | |
E Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Calculation |
28 |
LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
I | Introduction |
LAZARD
I INTRODUCTION |
Transaction Overview
TERMS |
DESCRIPTION | |
Transaction Structure: |
• Cash merger | |
Price: |
• Common Stock: US$12.90 per share in cash for outstanding shares of MOCC Common Stock not owned by RME
• Series A Preferred Stock: converted into the per share price at the applicable conversion ratio, currently 3.055 shares of MOCC Common Stock for each outstanding share of Series A Preferred Stock
• Series B Preferred Stock and Warrants to acquire shares of MOCC Common Stock and Series B Preferred Stock held by RME, excluding those which RME exercises and converts to enable RME to obtain majority voting power prior to the record date for the Special Meeting or Consent Action, to be cancelled
• Options and Warrants to acquire shares of MOCC Common Stock not held by RME to be cashed out
• 10-12% Convertible Subordinated Debentures Due 2007 to become convertible upon and following the closing, at the election of the holder, into the right to receive the per share price for each share of MOCC Common Stock into which such holder’s Debentures were previously convertible | |
Senior Management: |
• Employment arrangements with senior management to remain unchanged | |
Board: |
• Board to be reconstituted to consist entirely of RME’s designees | |
Required Approvals: |
• MOCC shareholder approval (RME is expected to deliver a written consent)
• Antitrust and, as applicable, other authority approvals |
Source: Draft dated 18 February 2007 of the merger agreement
1 | LAZARD
I INTRODUCTION |
MOCC Stock Price Trading History
LAST 12 MONTHS’ SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
Source: Datastream, Factiva
2 | LAZARD
I INTRODUCTION |
MOCC – Overview of Trading Statistics – Dec. 2006 Business Plan
(US$ in millions except per share figures unless otherwise stated)
CURRENT MARKET CAPITALISATION
CURRENT COMMON STOCK PRICE(1) |
PER SHARE CONSIDER- ATION |
|||||||
Stock Price |
$ | 11.30 | $ | 12.90 | ||||
Change from 52-Week High |
(4.4 | )% | 9.1 | % | ||||
Change from 52-Week Low |
60.7 | % | 83.5 | % | ||||
Average 5 Trading Day Price |
$ | 11.44 | $ | 11.44 | ||||
% Premium |
(1.2 | )% | 12.8 | % | ||||
Average 20 Trading Day Price |
11.51 | 11.51 | ||||||
% Premium |
(1.8 | )% | 12.1 | % | ||||
Diluted Shares Outstanding |
25.0 | 25.0 | ||||||
Equity Value |
$ | 282.6 | $ | 322.7 | ||||
Plus: Net Debt |
9.8 | 9.8 | ||||||
Plus: Adjustments |
18.8 | 18.8 | ||||||
Enterprise Value |
$ | 311.3 | $ | 351.3 |
IMPLIED MULTIPLES – DEC. 2006 BUS. PLAN
MULTIPLES OF: | ||||||||||
ENTERPRISE VALUE TO: |
FINANCIAL STATISTICS |
CURRENT COMMON STOCK PRICE |
PER SHARE CONSIDER- ATION | |||||||
2006E Revenue |
$ | 23.6 | 13.22x | 14.92x | ||||||
2007E Revenue |
60.5 | 5.14 | 5.80 | |||||||
2008E Revenue |
124.8 | 2.49 | 2.81 | |||||||
2007E EBITDA |
$ | 4.9 | 63.9x | 72.1x | ||||||
2008E EBITDA |
33.9 | 9.2x | 10.4x | |||||||
2007E EBIT |
$ | (8.5 | ) | n.m | n.m | |||||
2008E EBIT |
8.5 | 36.6x | 41.3x | |||||||
2006E RGU(2) |
337 | $ | 924 | $ | 1,043 | |||||
2007E RGU(2) |
790 | 394 | 445 |
1 |
As at 16 February 2007 |
2 |
‘000 RGUs |
Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007
Source: Public filings and MOCC December 2006 Business Plan per MOCC Management
3 | LAZARD
I INTRODUCTION |
MOCC – Overview of Trading Statistics – Adjusted Case
(US$ in millions except per share figures unless otherwise stated)
CURRENT MARKET CAPITALISATION
CURRENT COMMON STOCK PRICE(1) |
PER SHARE CONSIDER- ATION |
|||||||
Stock Price |
$ | 11.30 | $ | 12.90 | ||||
Change from 52-Week High |
(4.4 | )% | 9.1 | % | ||||
Change from 52-Week Low |
60.7 | % | 83.5 | % | ||||
Average 5 Trading Day Price |
$ | 11.44 | $ | 11.44 | ||||
% Premium |
(1.2 | )% | 12.8 | % | ||||
Average 20 Trading Day Price |
11.51 | 11.51 | ||||||
% Premium |
(1.8 | )% | 12.1 | % | ||||
Diluted Shares Outstanding |
25.0 | 25.0 | ||||||
Equity Value |
$ | 282.6 | $ | 322.7 | ||||
Plus: Net Debt |
9.8 | 9.8 | ||||||
Plus: Adjustments |
18.8 | 18.8 | ||||||
Enterprise Value |
$ | 311.3 | $ | 351.3 |
IMPLIED MULTIPLES – ADJUSTED CASE
MULTIPLES OF: | ||||||||||
ENTERPRISE VALUE TO: |
FINANCIAL STATISTICS |
CURRENT COMMON STOCK PRICE |
PER SHARE CONSIDER- ATION | |||||||
2006E Revenue |
$ | 26.5 | 11.74x | 13.25x | ||||||
2007E Revenue |
59.5 | 5.23 | 5.91 | |||||||
2008E Revenue |
107.8 | 2.89 | 3.26 | |||||||
2007E EBITDA |
$ | 5.8 | 53.8x | 60.7x | ||||||
2008E EBITDA |
21.0 | 14.8x | 16.7x | |||||||
2007E EBIT |
$ | (11.8 | ) | n.m | n.m | |||||
2008E EBIT |
(6.2 | ) | n.m | n.m | ||||||
2006E RGU(2) |
337 | $ | 924 | $ | 1,043 | |||||
2007E RGU(2) |
728 | 427 | 482 |
1 |
As at 16 February 2007 |
2 |
'000 RGUs |
Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007
Source: Public filings and MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee
4 | LAZARD
I INTRODUCTION |
MOCC Stock Price Trading History
LAST 12 MONTHS’ TRADING VOLUME BY PRICE
Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007
Source: Datastream
5 | LAZARD
I INTRODUCTION |
Indexed Stock Price Performance – Last 3 Years
MOCC SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
1 |
Cable index consists of Virgin Media, Telenet, Primacom, Mediacom, Comcast, Cablevision, Liberty Global and is not weighted by market capitalisation |
Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007
Source: Datastream
6 | LAZARD
I INTRODUCTION |
Peer Group – Trading Performance
SIX MONTHS SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
RELATIVE SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE
INCREASE / (DECREASE) |
US AVERAGE (1) |
VIRGIN MEDIA |
TELENET | LIBERTY GLOBAL |
PRIMACOM | ||||||||||
Last Week |
4.0 | % | 2.1 | % | 4.1 | % | 2.0 | % | (0.6 | )% | |||||
Last Month |
(2.0 | )% | 8.3 | % | 7.3 | % | (2.6 | )% | 3.2 | % | |||||
Last 2 Months |
0.4 | % | 11.6 | % | 9.1 | % | 4.1 | % | 2.7 | % | |||||
Last 3 Months |
4.5 | % | 15.5 | % | 15.9 | % | 8.6 | % | 23.1 | % | |||||
Last 6 Months |
27.5 | % | 4.9 | % | 33.3 | % | 24.4 | % | 66.0 | % |
1 |
US Average Companies: Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Mediacom |
Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007
Source: Datastream
7 | LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY |
II | MOCC – Financial Forecasts |
LAZARD
II MOCC - FINANCIAL FORECASTS |
Highlights of MOCC Financial Forecasts
DECEMBER 2006 BUSINESS PLAN |
ADJUSTED CASE | |||
NETWORK BUILD OUT |
• Homes passed and marketed growing to 2.2m by 2008E, flattening thereafter and reaching 2.4m in 2010E |
• Homes passed and marketed growing to 1.9m by 2008E, flattening thereafter and reaching 2.3m in 2010E | ||
PENETRATION | • Penetration of homes passed in 2006E, 2008E and 2010E respectively:
• 22%, 29% and 49% for Terrestrial TV
• 9%, 16% and 24% for Pay TV
• 13%, 17% and 22% for Internet |
• Penetration of homes passed in 2006E, 2008E and 2010E respectively:
• 22%, 34% and 48% for Terrestrial TV
• 8%, 13% and 18% for Pay TV
• 13%, 19% and 23% for Internet
• Telephony included from 2007E onwards | ||
REVENUES | • Revenues grow 79% CAGR from US$24m in 2006E to US$243m by 2010E |
• Revenues grow 65% CAGR from US$27m in 2006E to US$198m by 2010E | ||
• Telephony revenues included from 2007E onwards and below 4% of total revenues in 2010E |
• Telephony revenues included from 2007E onwards | |||
ARPU | • Terrestrial TV ARPU flat at US$1.92
• Pay TV ARPU growing 8% CAGR from US$10.7 to US$14.8 between 2006E and 2010E
• Internet ARPU decreasing 6% CAGR from US$21 to US$17 between 2006E and 2010E |
• Terrestrial TV ARPU staying relatively flat from US$1.8 to US$1.9 by 2010E
• Pay TV ARPU rising from US$10.7 to US$12.4 at 4% CAGR by 2010E
• Internet ARPU falling from US$21.4 to US$16.5 by 2010E
• Telephony ARPU flat at US$14.0 | ||
EBITDA MARGIN |
• EBITDA positive in 2007E showing an 8% margin
• EBITDA margin reaching 43% in 2010E |
• EBITDA positive in 2007E showing an 10% margin
• EBITDA recovery progresses to 39% margin in 2010E | ||
CAPEX | • US$253m mostly between 2007E-2009E
• Decreasing to 11% of revenues in 2010E |
• Capex declining to 15% of revenues by 2010E
• Capex per RGU declining to US$14.2 by 2010E from US$102.0 in 2006E |
Source: December 2006 Business Plan per MOCC Management. Adjusted Case reflects MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee
Note: Based on the Special Committee's assessments as to the relative likelihood of achieving the future financial results reflected in the December 2006 Business Plan and the Adjusted Case, the Special Committee has directed Lazard to rely upon the Adjusted Case for purposes of its opinion
8 | LAZARD
II MOCC - FINANCIAL FORECASTS |
Potential Execution Risks to Achieving MOCC Financial Forecasts
• | Liquidity needs of MOCC and impact of RME lack of support for third party financing |
• | Ongoing impact of Moscow Decree |
• | Potential VAT liabilities |
• | Reliance on RME entities for services |
Source: MOCC Management
9 | LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
III | MOCC – Financial Analysis |
LAZARD
III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
Valuation Methodologies
Methodologies Utilised:
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS |
• Estimates the present value of expected future cash flows and a terminal value:
• utilises discount rates to reflect the risk of the estimated cash flows as compared to market risk
• terminal values based on exit year EBITDA multiples | |
PUBLIC COMPANY TRADING MULTIPLES ANALYSIS |
• Takes into account several factors, including but not limited to, lines of business, relative business risks, growth prospects, size, scale and market positioning in evaluating MOCC versus selected trading multiples |
Other Methodologies:
PREMIA PAID ANALYSIS |
• Applies premia paid in minority buyout and other public company transactions:
• similar scale
• Russian operations
• minority buyouts
| |
PRECEDENT TRANSACTION ANALYSIS |
• Takes into account implied multiples paid in selected mergers and acquisitions transactions in relevant industries
• Not used for the following reasons:
• limited number of recent directly comparable transactions
• limited applicability for operations with negative EBITDA
• does not reflect MOCC’s growth potential |
10 | LAZARD
III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
MOCC Financial Analysis Summary
(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)
• | Investors would likely apply a discount to any DCF valuation of MOCC due to the perceived emerging market risk |
MOCC PER SHARE REFERENCE RANGES (US$)
1 |
Range reflects high point of EV / 2006E Adjusted Case Revenues and high point of EV / 2007E Adjusted Case Revenues |
2 |
Range reflects low point of EV / 2008E Adjusted Case EBITDA and high point of EV / 2008E Adjusted Case EBITDA |
3 |
Range reflects low point of EV / 2007E Adjusted Case RGU and high point of EV / 2007E Adjusted Case RGU. RGUs adjusted to reflect relative weighted average monthly revenues |
4 |
For informational purposes only |
5 |
0% and 20% premium to MOCC Common Stock closing price of $9.99, as at close 3 November 2006 (last trading day prior to RME's initial proposal) |
Note: Based on the Special Committee’s assessments as to the relative likelihood of achieving the future financial results reflected in the December 2006 Business Plan and the Adjusted Case, the Special Committee has directed Lazard to rely upon the Adjusted Case for purposes of its opinion
11 | LAZARD
III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
MOCC – DCF Analysis – December 2006 Business Plan
(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)
PV of Terminal Value | Entity Valuation |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PV of Free Cash Flows (1) | 2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple |
2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WACC | PV of FCF | WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | |||||||||||||||||||||
12.0% | (44) | 12.0 | % | 535 | 602 | 669 | 736 | 12.0 | % | 491 | 558 | 625 | 692 | |||||||||||||||||||
13.0% | (44) | 13.0 | % | 516 | 581 | 645 | 710 | 13.0 | % | 472 | 537 | 601 | 666 | |||||||||||||||||||
14.0% | (44) | + | 14.0 | % | 498 | 561 | 623 | 685 | = | 14.0 | % | 454 | 516 | 579 | 641 | |||||||||||||||||
15.0% | (44) | 15.0 | % | 481 | 541 | 602 | 662 | 15.0 | % | 437 | 497 | 557 | 617 | |||||||||||||||||||
16.0% | (44) | 16.0 | % | 465 | 523 | 581 | 639 | 16.0 | % | 421 | 479 | 537 | 595 | |||||||||||||||||||
18.0% | (44) | 18.0 | % | 434 | 488 | 543 | 597 | 18.0 | % | 390 | 444 | 498 | 553 | |||||||||||||||||||
20.0% | (44) | 20.0 | % | 406 | 457 | 507 | 558 | 20.0 | % | 362 | 412 | 463 | 514 | |||||||||||||||||||
Equity Valuation (2) | FCF Terminal Growth Rates Implied by Multiple Exit |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple | 2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | |||||||||||||||||||||||
12.0 | % | 481 | 548 | 615 | 682 | 12.0 | % | 4.8 | % | 5.6 | % | 6.2 | % | 6.7 | % | |||||||||||||||||
13.0 | % | 462 | 527 | 591 | 656 | 13.0 | % | 5.7 | % | 6.5 | % | 7.1 | % | 7.6 | % | |||||||||||||||||
14.0 | % | 444 | 507 | 569 | 631 | 14.0 | % | 6.7 | % | 7.4 | % | 8.1 | % | 8.6 | % | |||||||||||||||||
15.0 | % | 427 | 487 | 547 | 608 | 15.0 | % | 7.6 | % | 8.4 | % | 9.0 | % | 9.5 | % | |||||||||||||||||
16.0 | % | 411 | 469 | 527 | 585 | 16.0 | % | 8.5 | % | 9.3 | % | 10.0 | % | 10.5 | % | |||||||||||||||||
18.0 | % | 380 | 434 | 489 | 543 | 18.0 | % | 10.4 | % | 11.2 | % | 11.8 | % | 12.4 | % | |||||||||||||||||
20.0 | % | 352 | 403 | 453 | 504 | 20.0 | % | 12.3 | % | 13.1 | % | 13.7 | % | 14.3 | % | |||||||||||||||||
Implied Value Per Share |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12.0 | % | 19.24 | 21.91 | 24.58 | 27.26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
13.0 | % | 18.48 | 21.06 | 23.64 | 26.22 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
14.0 | % | 17.76 | 20.26 | 22.75 | 25.24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
15.0 | % | 17.08 | 19.48 | 21.89 | 24.29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16.0 | % | 16.42 | 18.75 | 21.07 | 23.39 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18.0 | % | 15.19 | 17.36 | 19.53 | 21.70 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20.0 | % | 14.07 | 16.10 | 18.13 | 20.15 |
1 |
Includes adjustments of US$18.8 million |
2 |
Assumes net debt of US$9.8 million |
Source: MOCC Management
12 | LAZARD
III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
MOCC – DCF Analysis – Adjusted Case
(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)
PV of Terminal Value | Entity Valuation | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PV of Free Cash Flows (1) | 2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple | 2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WACC | PV of FCF | WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | |||||||||||||||||||||
12.0% | (47) | 12.0 | % | 389 | 438 | 487 | 535 | 12.0 | % | 342 | 391 | 440 | 488 | |||||||||||||||||||
13.0% | (47) | 13.0 | % | 376 | 423 | 470 | 517 | 13.0 | % | 329 | 376 | 423 | 470 | |||||||||||||||||||
14.0% | (46) | + | 14.0 | % | 363 | 408 | 453 | 499 | = | 14.0 | % | 317 | 362 | 407 | 453 | |||||||||||||||||
15.0% | (45) | 15.0 | % | 350 | 394 | 438 | 482 | 15.0 | % | 305 | 349 | 392 | 436 | |||||||||||||||||||
16.0% | (45) | 16.0 | % | 338 | 381 | 423 | 465 | 16.0 | % | 293 | 336 | 378 | 420 | |||||||||||||||||||
18.0% | (44) | 18.0 | % | 316 | 356 | 395 | 435 | 18.0 | % | 272 | 312 | 351 | 391 | |||||||||||||||||||
20.0% | (43) | 20.0 | % | 295 | 332 | 369 | 406 | 20.0 | % | 253 | 290 | 326 | 363 | |||||||||||||||||||
Equity Valuation (2) | FCF Terminal Growth Rates Implied by Multiple Exit |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple | 2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | |||||||||||||||||||||||
12.0 | % | 332 | 381 | 430 | 478 | 12.0 | % | 6.7 | % | 7.2 | % | 7.7 | % | 8.1 | % | |||||||||||||||||
13.0 | % | 319 | 366 | 413 | 460 | 13.0 | % | 7.6 | % | 8.2 | % | 8.7 | % | 9.0 | % | |||||||||||||||||
14.0 | % | 307 | 352 | 398 | 443 | 14.0 | % | 8.6 | % | 9.2 | % | 9.6 | % | 10.0 | % | |||||||||||||||||
15.0 | % | 295 | 339 | 383 | 426 | 15.0 | % | 9.5 | % | 10.1 | % | 10.6 | % | 11.0 | % | |||||||||||||||||
16.0 | % | 284 | 326 | 368 | 410 | 16.0 | % | 10.5 | % | 11.1 | % | 11.5 | % | 11.9 | % | |||||||||||||||||
18.0 | % | 262 | 302 | 341 | 381 | 18.0 | % | 12.4 | % | 13.0 | % | 13.5 | % | 13.9 | % | |||||||||||||||||
20.0 | % | 243 | 280 | 317 | 354 | 20.0 | % | 14.3 | % | 14.9 | % | 15.4 | % | 15.8 | % | |||||||||||||||||
Implied Value Per Share | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WACC | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.00x | 11.00x | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12.0 | % | 13.29 | 15.24 | 17.18 | 19.13 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
13.0 | % | 12.77 | 14.65 | 16.53 | 18.40 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
14.0 | % | 12.27 | 14.08 | 15.90 | 17.71 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
15.0 | % | 11.79 | 13.54 | 15.30 | 17.05 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16.0 | % | 11.34 | 13.03 | 14.72 | 16.41 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18.0 | % | 10.49 | 12.07 | 13.65 | 15.22 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20.0 | % | 9.71 | 11.18 | 12.66 | 14.14 |
1 |
Includes adjustments of US$18.8 million |
2 |
Assumes net debt of US$9.8 million |
13 | LAZARD
III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
Public Company Trading Multiples Analysis – Dec. 2006 Business Plan
(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)
• | An initial review of peers suggests that EV / EBITDA is one of the more consistent measures for valuing MOCC |
• | Given MOCC’s growth profile, multiples have been applied to 2008E |
• | EV / Adjusted Revenues reflects annualised October 2006 revenues as a conservative proxy for 2006E revenues |
IMPLIED PER SHARE REFERENCE RANGES (US$)(2)
1 |
EV / Adjusted RGU is calculated by adjusting MOCC’s blended ARPU by the average of selected companies’ ARPU multiplied by the EV / RGU of the selected companies |
2 |
Implied value per share reflects December 2006 Business Plan, net debt of US$9.8m and adjustments of US$18.8m per MOCC Management |
14 | LAZARD
III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
Public Company Trading Multiples Analysis – Adjusted Case
(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)
• | The table below reflects implied per share reference ranges based on the Adjusted Case |
IMPLIED PER SHARE REFERENCE RANGES (US$)(2)
1 |
EV / Adjusted RGU is calculated by adjusting MOCC’s blended ARPU by the average of selected companies’ ARPU multiplied by the EV / RGU of the selected companies |
2 |
Implied value per share based on the Adjusted Case; net debt of US$9.8m and adjustments of US$18.8m per MOCC Management |
15 | LAZARD
III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
Premia Paid Summary
• | The following table summarises premia paid in transactions with transaction values between US$150 million and US$250 million and in Russian transactions announced from 2004 through 2006 |
PREMIA PAID
Transactions: $150m - $250m | Transactions: Russia | |||||||||||||||||
1 Day | 1 Week | 4 Weeks | 1 Day | 1 Week | 4 Weeks | |||||||||||||
High |
180.0 | % | 197.9 | % | 149.5 | % | 124.7 | % | 137.7 | % | 105.8 | % | ||||||
Mean |
14.1 | % | 16.0 | % | 19.3 | % | 15.6 | % | 17.8 | % | 15.8 | % | ||||||
Median |
9.2 | % | 10.2 | % | 13.0 | % | 4.4 | % | 4.3 | % | 11.1 | % | ||||||
Low |
(49.3 | )% | (57.7 | )% | (46.1 | )% | (20.7 | )% | (20.1 | )% | (12.7 | )% |
• | The following table summarises European minority buyout transactions announced from 2004 through 2006 |
PREMIA PAID
Minority Buyouts | |||||||||
1 Day | 1 Week | 4 Weeks | |||||||
High |
126.7 | % | 162.4 | % | 174.2 | % | |||
Mean |
10.3 | % | 12.3 | % | 15.4 | % | |||
Median |
3.1 | % | 5.9 | % | 9.4 | % | |||
Low |
(19.0 | )% | (20.8 | )% | (23.9 | )% |
Note: Includes transactions between US$150m and US$250m, Russian transactions, and European transactions in which the target owned > 50% prior to acquisition and acquired 100% stake
Source: Dealogic database, transaction data from 2004 to year end 2006
16 | LAZARD
III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS |
Summary of Research Analysts’ Price Targets
(US$ in millions, except per share data)
FINANCIALS ($m) | EV MULTIPLE: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
PRICE | REVENUES | EBITDA | REVENUES | EBITDA | ||||||||||||||||||||
FIRM |
DATE |
RATING |
TARGET | 2006E | 2007E | 2006E | 2007E | 2006E | 2007E | 2006E | 2007E | |||||||||||||
Renaissance Capital |
Sep-13-06 | Buy | $ | 13.40 | 23.3 | 58.4 | (7.0 | ) | 5.8 | 14.98x | 6.60x | n.m | 66.5x | |||||||||||
Aton |
Nov-16-06 | Hold | 12.70 | 24.0 | 62.0 | (7.0 | ) | 10.0 | 11.38x | 4.40x | n.m | 27.3x | ||||||||||||
MEDIAN |
$ | 13.05 | 23.7 | 60.2 | (7.0 | ) | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||
MOCC |
23.6 | 60.5 | (5.1 | ) | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||
Adjusted Case |
26.5 | 59.5 | (3.2 | ) | 5.8 |
Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital, Aton, MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan per MOCC Management and Adjusted Case (based on MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee)
17 | LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
IV | Additional Considerations |
LAZARD
IV ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS |
RME – Additional Considerations
• | RME is the principal provider of funding for MOCC and is currently fully supporting MOCC’s expansion plans |
• | Through its 51 per cent. stake in COMCOR (which in turn holds a 27 per cent. stake in MOCC), RME effectively controls MOCC’s backbone network access which is provided by COMCOR |
• | This ownership structure provides MOCC with exclusive rights to utilise the fibre optic network based on certain agreements and prices: |
• | cost of leased nodes and interconnect (US$450 to US$500 per month for every node) |
• | traffic charge of c. US$0.18 per GB of traffic with two planned price decreases in the forthcoming year |
• | charge for the lease of portals / channels |
Source: MOCC Management
18 | LAZARD
IV ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS |
MOCC Current Shareholder Structure
MOCC CURRENT SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE
Source: MOCC Management
19 | LAZARD
IV ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS |
Financing Considerations
• | MOCC requires funding until c. 2010 |
• | With its currently low leverage, MOCC has additional debt capacity but would not be likely to raise non-recourse standalone financing absent an independent verification process (to satisfy lending banks) or, alternatively, a rights issue or primary share offering |
EBITDA (US$M)
EBITDA LESS CAPEX (US$M)
Source: Renaissance Capital, Aton, MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan per MOCC Management and Adjusted Case (based on MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee)
20 | LAZARD
IV ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS |
Moscow Decree
• | On 17 October 2006, Moscow City Government issued a resolution requiring a change in the regulations covering television and radio broadcasting in Moscow, specifically broadband cable TV networks: |
• | develop the pre-project and project documents and estimates for the construction of broadband cable television networks |
• | arrange for the construction of broadband cable television networks in the city of Moscow |
• | arrange for the transfer and acceptance of the newly constructed facilities of broadband cable television networks |
• | ensure the operation of broadband cable television networks to provide users with communications services |
• | provide for the interaction of executive authorities and supervisory authorities in order to prevent unauthorized construction of telecommunications networks |
• | The responsibility for checking compliance with these terms has been attributed to Mostelecom, a direct competitor of MOCC |
• | The Cable Association of Russia has filed a suit against the City of Moscow contesting this resolution with regard to the commercial interest of the associated parties |
• | If this suit is unsuccessful, MOCC would potentially be obliged to provide its competitor with detailed, commercially sensitive information on its operations: |
• | this could impact MOCC’s business plan execution |
• | MOCC’s business plan does not reflect this potential risk |
• | However, the resolution could be overturned |
21 | LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
A | MOCC Financial Forecasts |
LAZARD
A MOCC FINANCIAL FORECASTS |
Summary Management Forecast – December 2006 Business Plan
For the year ended 31st December |
2006E | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 06E-10E CAGR |
||||||||||||||
Homes Passed & Marketed |
‘000s | 782 | 1,432 | 2,182 | 2,352 | 2,412 | 33 | % | ||||||||||||
% Increase (Decrease) |
% | 52.4 | % | 7.8 | % | 2.6 | % | |||||||||||||
Active RGUs |
||||||||||||||||||||
Terrestrial Package |
‘000s | 175 | 381 | 634 | 942 | 1,192 | 62 | % | ||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 22.4 | % | 26.6 | % | 29.1 | % | 40.1 | % | 49.4 | % | |||||||||
Pay TV |
‘000s | 67 | 185 | 340 | 489 | 582 | 72 | % | ||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 8.5 | % | 12.9 | % | 15.6 | % | 20.8 | % | 24.1 | % | |||||||||
Internet |
‘000s | 98 | 220 | 370 | 494 | 541 | 53 | % | ||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 12.6 | % | 15.4 | % | 17.0 | % | 21.0 | % | 22.4 | % | |||||||||
Telephony |
‘000s | 0 | 4 | 22 | 43 | 65 | nm | |||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 0.0 | % | 0.3 | % | 1.0 | % | 1.8 | % | 2.7 | % | |||||||||
Total Active RGUs |
‘000s | 340 | 790 | 1,366 | 1,969 | 2,380 | 63 | % | ||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 43.5 | % | 55.2 | % | 62.6 | % | 83.7 | % | 98.7 | % | |||||||||
New RGUs |
‘000s | 450 | 576 | 604 | 411 | |||||||||||||||
ARPU |
||||||||||||||||||||
Terrestrial Package |
$ | 1.78 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 2 | % | ||||||||||||
Pay TV |
$ | 10.74 | 11.90 | 13.16 | 14.04 | 14.80 | 8 | % | ||||||||||||
Internet |
$ | 21.34 | 18.75 | 18.29 | 17.47 | 16.95 | (6 | )% | ||||||||||||
Telephony |
$ | 0.00 | 13.99 | 13.29 | 12.63 | 12.00 | nm | |||||||||||||
Weighted Average ARPU |
$ | 9.19 | 9.00 | 9.33 | 9.07 | 8.76 | (1 | )% | ||||||||||||
Revenues |
||||||||||||||||||||
Terrestrial Package |
$m | 2.5 | 6.2 | 11.6 | 18.5 | 24.8 | 77 | % | ||||||||||||
Pay TV |
$m | 4.5 | 17.0 | 40.6 | 70.7 | 94.8 | 115 | % | ||||||||||||
Internet |
$m | 15.4 | 34.0 | 63.5 | 92.0 | 104.9 | 62 | % | ||||||||||||
Telephony |
$m | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 7.8 | nm | |||||||||||||
Other |
$m | 1.2 | 3.1 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 73 | % | ||||||||||||
Total |
$m | 23.6 | 60.5 | 124.8 | 195.8 | 242.8 | 79 | % | ||||||||||||
Revenues / Active RGU |
$ | 6.93 | 7.67 | 9.14 | 9.94 | 10.20 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA |
$m | (5.1 | ) | 4.9 | 33.9 | 74.4 | 105.2 | nm | ||||||||||||
% margin |
(22 | )% | 8 | % | 27 | % | 38 | % | 43 | % | ||||||||||
Total Capex |
$m | (35.5 | ) | (66.5 | ) | (81.6 | ) | (44.0 | ) | (25.8 | ) | (8 | )% | |||||||
Capex as % of sales |
% | 151 | % | 110 | % | 65 | % | 22 | % | 11 | % | |||||||||
Capex per RGU |
$ | 104.47 | 84.27 | 59.73 | 22.35 | 10.84 | (43 | )% | ||||||||||||
Capex per New RGU |
$ | 14.80 | 14.16 | 7.29 | 6.28 |
Source: MOCC Management
22 | LAZARD
A MOCC FINANCIAL FORECASTS |
Summary Financial Forecast – Adjusted Case
For the year ended 31st December |
2006E | 2007E | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 06E-10E CAGR |
||||||||||||||
Homes Passed & Marketed |
‘000s | 782 | 1,332 | 1,932 | 2,262 | 2,322 | 31 | % | ||||||||||||
% Increase (Decrease) |
% | 70.2 | % | 45.1 | % | 17.1 | % | 2.7 | % | |||||||||||
Active RGUs |
||||||||||||||||||||
Terrestrial Package |
‘000s | 174 | 375 | 654 | 942 | 1,111 | 59 | % | ||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 22.2 | % | 28.2 | % | 33.9 | % | 41.7 | % | 47.9 | % | |||||||||
Pay TV |
‘000s | 65 | 140 | 251 | 351 | 418 | 59 | % | ||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 8.3 | % | 10.5 | % | 13.0 | % | 15.5 | % | 18.0 | % | |||||||||
Internet |
‘000s | 98 | 210 | 356 | 488 | 533 | 53 | % | ||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 12.5 | % | 15.8 | % | 18.5 | % | 21.6 | % | 23.0 | % | |||||||||
Telephony |
‘000s | 0 | 4 | 20 | 41 | 63 | nm | |||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 0.0 | % | 0.3 | % | 1.0 | % | 1.8 | % | 2.7 | % | |||||||||
Total Active RGUs |
‘000s | 337 | 728 | 1,281 | 1,822 | 2,124 | 58 | % | ||||||||||||
Penetration |
% | 43.0 | % | 54.7 | % | 66.3 | % | 80.6 | % | 91.5 | % | |||||||||
New RGUs |
‘000s | 392 | 553 | 541 | 302 | |||||||||||||||
ARPU |
||||||||||||||||||||
Terrestrial Package |
$ | 1.78 | 1.89 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2 | % | ||||||||||||
Pay TV |
$ | 10.67 | 10.74 | 10.80 | 11.48 | 12.38 | 4 | % | ||||||||||||
Internet |
$ | 21.39 | 20.00 | 18.75 | 17.25 | 16.50 | (6 | )% | ||||||||||||
Telephony |
$ | 0.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | nm | |||||||||||||
Weighted Average ARPU |
$ | 9.21 | 8.86 | 8.52 | 8.13 | 7.98 | (4 | )% | ||||||||||||
Revenues |
||||||||||||||||||||
Terrestrial Package |
$m | 2.8 | 6.2 | 11.7 | 18.2 | 23.4 | 71 | % | ||||||||||||
Pay TV |
$m | 5.3 | 13.2 | 25.3 | 41.4 | 57.1 | 81 | % | ||||||||||||
Internet |
$m | 17.3 | 36.9 | 63.7 | 87.4 | 101.1 | 56 | % | ||||||||||||
Telephony |
$m | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 8.7 | nm | |||||||||||||
Other |
$m | 1.2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 62 | % | ||||||||||||
Total |
$m | 26.5 | 59.5 | 107.8 | 159.1 | 198.3 | 65 | % | ||||||||||||
Revenues / Active RGU |
$ | 7.88 | 8.17 | 8.42 | 8.73 | 9.34 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA |
$m | (3.2 | ) | 5.8 | 21.0 | 46.1 | 76.6 | nm | ||||||||||||
% margin |
(12 | )% | 10 | % | 19 | % | 29 | % | 39 | % | ||||||||||
Total Capex |
$m | (34.3 | ) | (47.5 | ) | (57.9 | ) | (47.0 | ) | (30.3 | ) | (3 | )% | |||||||
Capex as % of sales |
% | 130 | % | 80 | % | 54 | % | 30 | % | 15 | % | |||||||||
Capex per RGU |
$ | 102.03 | 65.19 | 45.19 | 25.78 | 14.24 | (39 | )% | ||||||||||||
Capex per New RGU |
$ | 12.12 | 10.47 | 8.69 | 10.01 |
Source: MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee
23 | LAZARD
A MOCC FINANCIAL FORECASTS |
Adjusted Case – Certain Assumptions
ASSUMPTIONS |
BENCHMARK AND COMMENTS | |||
NETWORK BUILD OUT | • Homes passed and marketed growing to 1.9m by 2008E, flattening thereafter and reaching 2.3m in 2010E |
• Homes passed and marketed aligned with December 2006 business plan and average market expectations | ||
PENETRATION | • Penetration of homes passed in 2006E, 2008E and 2010E respectively:
• 22%, 34% and 48% for Terrestrial TV
• 8%, 13% and 18% for Pay TV
• 13%, 19% and 23% for Internet
• Telephony included from 2007E onwards |
• Penetration levels for Terrestrial TV and Internet aligned with December 2006 business plan. Internet penetration benchmarked with brokers
• Less aggressive penetration assumptions for Pay TV which are broadly in line with brokers average of 8%, 12% and 16%
• Telephony included broadly in line with December 2006 business plan – reflecting conservative growth in market position | ||
ARPU | • Terrestrial TV ARPU staying relatively flat from US$1.8 to US$1.9 by 2010E
• Pay TV ARPU rising from US$10.7 to US$12.4 at 4% CAGR by 2010E
• Internet ARPU falling from US$21.4 to US$16.5 by 2010E
• Telephony ARPU flat at US$14.0 |
• Terrestrial TV ARPU in line with December 2006 business plan
• Conservative Pay TV ARPU in line with Russian forecasts and brokers
• Forecasting sharper decline in Internet ARPU than business plan – in line with brokers by 2010E
• Telephony ARPU assumed broadly consistent with December 2006 business plan | ||
EBITDA MARGIN | • EBITDA positive in 2007E showing an 10% margin
• EBITDA recovery progresses to 39% margin in 2010E |
• Broadly in line with December 2006 business plan and in line with more mature comparable operators’ current margin assumptions of c.40% to 45% | ||
CAPEX | • Capex declining to 15% of revenues by 2010E
• Capex per RGU declining to US$14.2 by 2010E from US$102.0 in 2006E |
• Forecast in line with comparable operators’ Capex as percentage of revenues (c.10% to 25%)
• More conservative decline in Capex per RGU to US$14.2 (15% of revenues) by 2010E than December 2006 Case (US$10.8 (11% of revenues) by 2010E) |
Source: Adjusted Case reflects MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee
24 | LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
B | MOCC – Corporate Adjustments |
LAZARD
B MOCC - CORPORATE ADJUSTMENTS |
MOCC – Corporate Adjustments
• | Corporate adjustments per MOCC Management to MOCC December 2006 Business Plan and Adjusted Case include the following: |
• | off balance sheet savings bank cash, which allows MOCC to participate in the demutualisation of savings banks |
• | fair value mark-up on book value of real estate in Bloomfield |
• | assumed value of MOCC’s 43.5 per cent. holding in IAS |
• | pension plan surplus net of deferred tax liabilities |
• | other liabilities relating to amounts due to former executives |
• | No adjustment has been made for corporate overheads at MOCC: |
• | this would negatively impact MOCC’s per share value |
MOCC CORPORATE ADJUSTMENTS
Source: MOCC Management
25 | LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
C | Selected Public Companies |
LAZARD
C SELECTED PUBLIC COMPANIES |
Selected Public Companies – Trading Statistics
Equity Value ($m) |
Enterprise Value ($m) |
Enterprise Value as a Multiple of: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenues | EBITDA | EBITDA - Capex | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Company |
2005A | 2006E | 2007E | 2008E | 2005A | 2006E | 2007E | 2008E | 2005A | 2006E | 2007E | 2008E | ||||||||||||||||
Virgin Media |
9,086 | 20,239 | 2.60x | 2.47x | 2.44x | 2.36x | 9.3x | 8.4x | 7.9x | 7.0x | 17.1x | 16.5x | 13.7x | 10.5x | ||||||||||||||
Telenet |
3,106 | 4,691 | 4.85x | 4.38x | 4.04x | 3.68x | 10.6x | 9.8x | 9.2x | 8.5x | 18.2x | 21.0x | 18.3x | 16.0x | ||||||||||||||
Liberty Global |
11,679 | 22,221 | 3.82x | 3.42x | 3.01x | 2.78x | 12.1x | 9.0x | 7.7x | 7.1x | 34.4x | 29.2x | 17.4x | 15.3x | ||||||||||||||
Cablevision |
8,761 | 20,623 | 3.98x | 3.49x | 3.18x | 2.96x | 13.0x | 11.3x | 10.6x | 9.6x | 25.2x | 21.6x | 17.2x | 14.3x | ||||||||||||||
Comcast |
85,907 | 103,127 | 4.63x | 4.00x | 3.38x | 3.08x | 12.1x | 10.4x | 8.7x | 7.8x | 22.8x | 19.0x | 14.4x | 12.8x | ||||||||||||||
Primacom |
209 | 636 | 4.10x | 3.72x | 3.30x | 2.99x | 10.3x | 9.3x | 8.2x | 7.5x | 10.3x | 9.3x | 8.2x | 7.5x | ||||||||||||||
Mediacom |
877 | 4,002 | 3.64x | 3.31x | 3.03x | 2.77x | 9.9x | 9.1x | 8.3x | 7.6x | 22.6x | 17.4x | 14.1x | 12.1x | ||||||||||||||
Mean | 3.95x | 3.54x | 3.19x | 2.94x | 11.0x | 9.6x | 8.6x | 7.9x | 21.5x | 19.1x | 14.8x | 12.6x | ||||||||||||||||
Median | 3.98x | 3.49x | 3.18x | 2.96x | 10.6x | 9.3x | 8.3x | 7.6x | 22.6x | 19.0x | 14.4x | 12.8x |
Equity Value ($m) |
Enterprise Value ($m) |
Key Operational Statistics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EV / RGU | Capex as % of Sales | Capex / RGU | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Company |
2005A | 2006E | 2007E | 2008E | 2005A | 2006E | 2007E | 2008E | 2005A | 2006E | 2007E | 2008E | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Virgin Media |
9,086 | 20,239 | $ | 1,984 | $ | 1,948 | $ | 1,863 | $ | 1,810 | 13 | % | 14 | % | 13 | % | 11 | % | $ | 97 | $ | 113 | $ | 101 | $ | 85 | ||||||||||||||
Telenet |
3,106 | 4,691 | $ | 1,713 | $ | 1,542 | $ | 1,410 | $ | 1,290 | 19 | % | 24 | % | 22 | % | 20 | % | $ | 68 | $ | 84 | $ | 77 | $ | 71 | ||||||||||||||
Liberty Global |
11,679 | 22,221 | $ | 1,351 | $ | 1,159 | $ | 1,088 | $ | 1,015 | 21 | % | 26 | % | 22 | % | 21 | % | $ | 73 | $ | 89 | $ | 79 | $ | 77 | ||||||||||||||
Cablevision |
8,761 | 20,623 | $ | 2,778 | $ | 2,327 | $ | 2,112 | $ | 1,979 | 15 | % | 15 | % | 12 | % | 10 | % | $ | 104 | $ | 97 | $ | 77 | $ | 69 | ||||||||||||||
Comcast |
85,907 | 103,127 | $ | 2,510 | $ | 2,034 | $ | 1,843 | $ | 1,704 | 18 | % | 17 | % | 15 | % | 15 | % | $ | 96 | $ | 89 | $ | 84 | $ | 86 | ||||||||||||||
Primacom |
209 | 636 | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mediacom |
877 | 4,002 | $ | 1,656 | $ | 1,537 | $ | 1,417 | $ | 1,306 | 21 | % | 18 | % | 15 | % | 14 | % | $ | 94 | $ | 81 | $ | 71 | $ | 65 | ||||||||||||||
Mean | $ | 1,999 | $ | 1,758 | $ | 1,622 | $ | 1,517 | 18 | % | 19 | % | 17 | % | 15 | % | $ | 89 | $ | 92 | $ | 81 | $ | 75 | ||||||||||||||||
Median | $ | 1,849 | $ | 1,745 | $ | 1,630 | $ | 1,505 | 18 | % | 17 | % | 15 | % | 15 | % | $ | 95 | $ | 89 | $ | 78 | $ | 74 |
Source: Public filings, Analysts’ research; market data as at 16 February 2007
26 | LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
D | Selected Precedent Transactions |
LAZARD
D SELECTED PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS |
Selected Precedent Transactions
(US$ in millions, except per subscriber figures)
EQUITY VALUE |
ENTITY VALUE |
EV as a Multiple of: | |||||||||||||||
DATE |
ACQUIROR |
TARGET |
REVENUES | EBITDA | RGUs | ||||||||||||
29-Nov-2006 |
Telenet | UPC Belgium | $ | 246 | $ | 246 | NA | NA | $ | 1,427 | |||||||
13-Nov-2006 |
Liberty Global Inc | Telenet Group (6.7%) | 2,633 | 4,187 | 4.19x | 9.4x | $ | 1,452 | |||||||||
3-Oct-2006 |
Cyrte Investment Fund (3.53%) | Telenet Group (3.53%) | 2,452 | 3,992 | 4.03x | 9.1x | $ | 1,384 | |||||||||
29-Sep-2006 |
Liberty Global | Karneval s.r.o. and Forecable s.r.o. | NA | 412 | NA | NA | $ | 1,330 | |||||||||
8-Sep-2006 |
Warburg Pincus & Cinven | Casema Holding | 2,629 | 2,629 | NA | 11.9x | $ | 1,955 | |||||||||
1-Sep-2006 |
Carlyle / Providence | UPC Sweden | 408 | 442 | NA | 9.0x | $ | 1,099 | |||||||||
3-Aug-2006 |
Cogeco Cable | Televisao por Cabo SA | NA | 596 | 3.49x | 12.6x | $ | 975 | |||||||||
20-Jul-2006 |
Altice One SA | UPC France SA | NA | 1,578 | 3.03x | 11.9x | NA | ||||||||||
30-Mar-2006 |
Renova | Teleinform | 40 | 40 | 4.44x | NA | $ | 100 | |||||||||
1-Feb-2006 |
Providence Equity Partners Inc (IBO) | Kabel Deutschland GmbH (63.4%) | NA | 3,751 | 3.18x | 7.9x | $ | 391 | |||||||||
24-Jan-2006 |
Candover | UPC Norway | NA | 541 | NA | 9.8x | $ | 1,481 | |||||||||
9-Jan-2006 |
Mid Europa Partners LLP | Aster City Cable Sp z oo | NA | 483 | 6.59x | NA | $ | 1,062 | |||||||||
5-Dec-2005 |
Warburg Pincus LLC | Multikabel BV | NA | 616 | NA | NA | $ | 1,948 | |||||||||
25-Oct-2005 |
Liberty Global | Cablecom Holding AG | 2,179 | 3,388 | 5.59x | 14.2x | $ | 2,259 | |||||||||
3-Oct-2005 |
Goldman Sachs Group | Pirelli & C SpA | 605 | 1,605 | 3.60x | 13.5x | $ | 2,700 | |||||||||
10-Feb-2005 |
UnitedGlobalCom, Inc | Telemach d.o.o. | 95 | 99 | NA | 8.2x | $ | 899 | |||||||||
20-Dec-2004 |
UnitedGlobalCom Inc | Chorus Communications Ltd | 55 | 161 | NA | 6.9x | $ | 806 | |||||||||
04-Nov-04 |
Delta Private Equity Partners | National Cable Networks JSC | 20 | 20 | NA | NA | $ | 13 | |||||||||
27-Feb-2004 |
EWS Energie AG | Kabel-TV-Anlage Luesch | 2 | 2 | NA | NA | $ | 358 | |||||||||
24-Feb-2004 |
Andersen Group Inc. | ComCor-TV (50%) | 56 | 56 | 0.82x | 4.2x | $ | 1,049 | |||||||||
13-Nov-2003 |
Creditors | Cablecom Holding AG | 1,609 | 1,609 | 4.01x | 10.4x | $ | 1,073 | |||||||||
31-Oct-2003 |
Telewizja Kablowa Vectra SA | Telewizja Kablowa Dami Sp z oo | 33 | 33 | NA | NA | $ | 295 | |||||||||
13-Mar-2003 |
PE Consortium | Deutsche Telekom AG | 2,274 | 2,274 | 2.29x | 5.8x | $ | 1,516 | |||||||||
28-Jan-2003 |
Investor Group | Casema | 686 | 686 | 3.01x | NA | $ | 502 | |||||||||
23-Dec-2002 |
Altice France Est | Est Videocommunication | 125 | 125 | 3.73x | NA | $ | 810 | |||||||||
Median | 3.66x | 9.4x | $ | 1,067 | |||||||||||||
Mean | 3.71x | 9.7x | $ | 1,120 |
Source: Public filings, Analysts’ research
27 | LAZARD
PROJECT TOLSTOY
E | Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Calculation |
LAZARD
E WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) CALCULATION |
MOCC WACC Calculation
ASSUMPTIONS | COMMENTS | ||||
Risk Free Rate | 4.04 | % | German 5 year bond rate | ||
Estimated Cost of Debt | 12.00 | % | MOCC assumption | ||
Country Risk Premium | 6.22 | % | 6 year average spread of Euro denominated German 5 year bond rate over Russian 5 year Eurobond rate adjusted for 1.5x emerging market equity risk | ||
Equity Risk Premium | 4.84 | % | |||
Unlevered Beta | 1.0 | ||||
Target Debt to (Equity to Debt) | 50 | % | |||
Effective Tax Rate | 24.0 | % | MOCC assumption; 2006 KPMG Corporate Tax Survey | ||
WACC |
15.9 | % |
28 | LAZARD
E WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) CALCULATION |
MOCC WACC Calculation – Country Risk Premium
1 |
Spread of Euro denominated German 5 year bond rate over Russian 5 year Eurobond rate adjusted for 1.5x emerging market equity risk |
29 | LAZARD
E WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) CALCULATION |
MOCC WACC Calculation
Risk Free Rate (Rf) |
4.04 | % (1) | |
Country Risk Premium (CRP) |
6.22 | % (2) | |
Equity Risk Premium (ERP) |
4.84 | % | |
Russian Equity Risk Premium (ERP) |
11.06 | % (2) | |
Tax Rate (T) |
24.00 | % (3) | |
MOCC Unlevered Beta |
1.00 |
Target Debt / Equity |
Unlevered Beta |
Levering Factor |
Levered Beta |
Cost of Equity(4) |
|||||
0.0% | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 15.1 | % | ||||
10.0% | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 15.9 | % | ||||
20.0% | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 16.8 | % | ||||
30.0% | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 17.6 | % | ||||
40.0% | 1.00 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 18.5 | % | ||||
50.0% | 1.00 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 19.3 | % | ||||
60.0% | 1.00 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 20.1 | % | ||||
70.0% | 1.00 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 21.0 | % | ||||
80.0% | 1.00 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 21.8 | % | ||||
90.0% | 1.00 | 1.68 | 1.68 | 22.7 | % | ||||
100.0% | 1.00 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 23.5 | % | ||||
110.0% | 1.00 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 24.3 | % | ||||
120.0% | 1.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 25.2 | % |
Pre-tax Cost of Debt (Rd) | 10.50 | % | 11.00 | % | 11.50 | % | 12.00 | % | 12.50 | % | 13.00 | % | 13.50 | % | ||||||||||
Post-tax Cost of Debt | 7.98 | % | 8.36 | % | 8.74 | % | 9.12 | % | 9.50 | % | 9.88 | % | 10.26 | % | ||||||||||
Target Debt | Target Equity |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital |
||||||||||||||||||||||
Equity + Debt | Equity + Debt | |||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0% | 100.0 | % | 15.1 | % | 15.1 | % | 15.1 | % | 15.1 | % | 15.1 | % | 15.1 | % | 15.1 | % | ||||||||
9.1% | 90.9 | % | 15.2 | % | 15.3 | % | 15.3 | % | 15.3 | % | 15.4 | % | 15.4 | % | 15.4 | % | ||||||||
16.7% | 83.3 | % | 15.3 | % | 15.4 | % | 15.4 | % | 15.5 | % | 15.6 | % | 15.6 | % | 15.7 | % | ||||||||
23.1% | 76.9 | % | 15.4 | % | 15.5 | % | 15.6 | % | 15.7 | % | 15.7 | % | 15.8 | % | 15.9 | % | ||||||||
28.6% | 71.4 | % | 15.5 | % | 15.6 | % | 15.7 | % | 15.8 | % | 15.9 | % | 16.0 | % | 16.1 | % | ||||||||
33.3% | 66.7 | % | 15.5 | % | 15.7 | % | 15.8 | % | 15.9 | % | 16.0 | % | 16.2 | % | 16.3 | % | ||||||||
37.5% | 62.5 | % | 15.6 | % | 15.7 | % | 15.9 | % | 16.0 | % | 16.2 | % | 16.3 | % | 16.4 | % | ||||||||
41.2% | 58.8 | % | 15.6 | % | 15.8 | % | 15.9 | % | 16.1 | % | 16.3 | % | 16.4 | % | 16.6 | % | ||||||||
44.4% | 55.6 | % | 15.7 | % | 15.8 | % | 16.0 | % | 16.2 | % | 16.3 | % | 16.5 | % | 16.7 | % | ||||||||
47.4% | 52.6 | % | 15.7 | % | 15.9 | % | 16.1 | % | 16.3 | % | 16.4 | % | 16.6 | % | 16.8 | % | ||||||||
50.0% | 50.0 | % | 15.7 | % | 15.9 | % | 16.1 | % | 16.3 | % | 16.5 | % | 16.7 | % | 16.9 | % | ||||||||
52.4% | 47.6 | % | 15.8 | % | 16.0 | % | 16.2 | % | 16.4 | % | 16.6 | % | 16.8 | % | 17.0 | % | ||||||||
54.5% | 45.5 | % | 15.8 | % | 16.0 | % | 16.2 | % | 16.4 | % | 16.6 | % | 16.8 | % | 17.0 | % |
Methodology
bl = [1+ (1-T)D/E]be,u
Re = Rf+be,lERP + SP
WACC = ReE/(E+D)+RdD(1-T)/(E+D)
1 |
German 5 year rate |
2 |
6 year average spread of Euro denominated German 5 Year Government Bond over Russian 5 Year Eurobond Rate adjusted for 1.5x emerging market equity risk |
3 |
KPMG Corporate Tax Survey |
4 |
Calculated as: Rf + Levered Beta[CRP+ERP] + SP |
30 | LAZARD