EX-99.(C)(3) 3 dex99c3.htm PRESENTATION OF LAZARD & CO. Presentation of Lazard & Co.

Exhibit C3

|    21 FEBRUARY 2007    |

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PRESENTATION TO THE SPECIAL COMMITTEE


Project Tolstoy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

  Important Notice

 

 

The information herein has been prepared by Lazard & Co., Limited and Lazard Frères & Co. LLC (collectively, “Lazard”) based upon information supplied by Moscow CableCom Corporation (“MOCC” or the “Company”) or publicly available information, and portions of the information herein may be based upon certain statements, estimates and forecasts provided by the Company with respect to the anticipated future performance of the Company. We have relied upon the accuracy and completeness of the foregoing information, and have not assumed any responsibility for any independent verification of such information or any independent valuation or appraisal of any of the assets or liabilities of the Company, or concerning the solvency or fair value of the Company, and have not been furnished with any such valuation or appraisal. We have not addressed the solvency or fair value of the Company or any other entity under any state, federal or other applicable laws relating to bankruptcy, insolvency or similar matters. With respect of the financial forecasts relied upon for purposes of our opinion, we have assumed that they have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgements as to the future competitive, operating and regulatory environments and related financial performance of the Company. We assume no responsibility for and express no view as to such forecasts or the assumptions on which they are based. The information set forth herein is based upon economic, monetary, market and other conditions as in effect on, and the information made available to us as of, the date hereof. These materials and the information contained herein are confidential and may not be disclosed publicly or made available to third parties without the prior written consent of Lazard. Lazard is acting as investment banker to the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company only and will not be responsible to anyone else for providing the protections afforded to clients of Lazard, and will not be responsible for and will not provide any tax, accounting, actuarial, legal or other specialist advice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

Table of Contents

 

I        INTRODUCTION

   1

II      MOCC – FINANCIAL FORECASTS

   8

III    MOCC – FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

   10

IV    ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

   18

APPENDICES

  

A      MOCC Financial Forecasts

   22

B      MOCC – Corporate Adjustments

   25

C      Selected Public Companies

   26

D      Selected Precedent Transactions

   27

E       Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Calculation

   28

LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

 

I Introduction

LAZARD


   I    INTRODUCTION

 

Transaction Overview

 

TERMS

  

DESCRIPTION

Transaction Structure:

  

•        Cash merger

Price:

  

•        Common Stock: US$12.90 per share in cash for outstanding shares of MOCC Common Stock not owned by RME

 

•        Series A Preferred Stock: converted into the per share price at the applicable conversion ratio, currently 3.055 shares of MOCC Common Stock for each outstanding share of Series A Preferred Stock

 

•        Series B Preferred Stock and Warrants to acquire shares of MOCC Common Stock and Series B Preferred Stock held by RME, excluding those which RME exercises and converts to enable RME to obtain majority voting power prior to the record date for the Special Meeting or Consent Action, to be cancelled

 

•        Options and Warrants to acquire shares of MOCC Common Stock not held by RME to be cashed out

 

•        10-12% Convertible Subordinated Debentures Due 2007 to become convertible upon and following the closing, at the election of the holder, into the right to receive the per share price for each share of MOCC Common Stock into which such holder’s Debentures were previously convertible

Senior Management:

  

•        Employment arrangements with senior management to remain unchanged

Board:

  

•        Board to be reconstituted to consist entirely of RME’s designees

Required Approvals:

  

•        MOCC shareholder approval (RME is expected to deliver a written consent)

 

•        Antitrust and, as applicable, other authority approvals

Source: Draft dated 18 February 2007 of the merger agreement

 

1 | LAZARD


   I    INTRODUCTION

 

MOCC Stock Price Trading History

LAST 12 MONTHS’ SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE

LOGO

Source: Datastream, Factiva

 

2 | LAZARD


   I    INTRODUCTION

 

MOCC – Overview of Trading Statistics – Dec. 2006 Business Plan

(US$ in millions except per share figures unless otherwise stated)

CURRENT MARKET CAPITALISATION

 

     CURRENT
COMMON
STOCK
PRICE(1)
    PER SHARE
CONSIDER-
ATION
 

Stock Price

   $ 11.30     $ 12.90  

Change from 52-Week High

     (4.4 )%     9.1 %

Change from 52-Week Low

     60.7 %     83.5 %

Average 5 Trading Day Price

   $ 11.44     $ 11.44  

% Premium

     (1.2 )%     12.8 %

Average 20 Trading Day Price

     11.51       11.51  

% Premium

     (1.8 )%     12.1 %

Diluted Shares Outstanding

     25.0       25.0  

Equity Value

   $ 282.6     $ 322.7  

Plus: Net Debt

     9.8       9.8  

Plus: Adjustments

     18.8       18.8  

Enterprise Value

   $ 311.3     $ 351.3  

IMPLIED MULTIPLES – DEC. 2006 BUS. PLAN

 

           MULTIPLES OF:

ENTERPRISE VALUE TO:

   FINANCIAL
STATISTICS
    CURRENT
COMMON
STOCK
PRICE
   PER SHARE
CONSIDER-
ATION

2006E Revenue

   $ 23.6       13.22x      14.92x

2007E Revenue

     60.5       5.14      5.80

2008E Revenue

     124.8       2.49      2.81

2007E EBITDA

   $ 4.9       63.9x      72.1x

2008E EBITDA

     33.9       9.2x      10.4x

2007E EBIT

   $ (8.5 )     n.m      n.m

2008E EBIT

     8.5       36.6x      41.3x

2006E RGU(2)

     337     $ 924    $ 1,043

2007E RGU(2)

     790       394      445

 

1

As at 16 February 2007

 

2

‘000 RGUs

Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007

Source: Public filings and MOCC December 2006 Business Plan per MOCC Management

 

3 | LAZARD


   I    INTRODUCTION

 

MOCC – Overview of Trading Statistics – Adjusted Case

(US$ in millions except per share figures unless otherwise stated)

CURRENT MARKET CAPITALISATION

 

     CURRENT
COMMON
STOCK
PRICE(1)
    PER SHARE
CONSIDER-
ATION
 

Stock Price

   $ 11.30     $ 12.90  

Change from 52-Week High

     (4.4 )%     9.1 %

Change from 52-Week Low

     60.7 %     83.5 %

Average 5 Trading Day Price

   $ 11.44     $ 11.44  

% Premium

     (1.2 )%     12.8 %

Average 20 Trading Day Price

     11.51       11.51  

% Premium

     (1.8 )%     12.1 %

Diluted Shares Outstanding

     25.0       25.0  

Equity Value

   $ 282.6     $ 322.7  

Plus: Net Debt

     9.8       9.8  

Plus: Adjustments

     18.8       18.8  

Enterprise Value

   $ 311.3     $ 351.3  

IMPLIED MULTIPLES – ADJUSTED CASE

 

           MULTIPLES OF:

ENTERPRISE VALUE TO:

   FINANCIAL
STATISTICS
    CURRENT
COMMON
STOCK
PRICE
   PER SHARE
CONSIDER-
ATION

2006E Revenue

   $ 26.5       11.74x      13.25x

2007E Revenue

     59.5       5.23      5.91

2008E Revenue

     107.8       2.89      3.26

2007E EBITDA

   $ 5.8       53.8x      60.7x

2008E EBITDA

     21.0       14.8x      16.7x

2007E EBIT

   $ (11.8 )     n.m      n.m

2008E EBIT

     (6.2 )     n.m      n.m

2006E RGU(2)

     337     $ 924    $ 1,043

2007E RGU(2)

     728       427      482

 

1

As at 16 February 2007

 

2

'000 RGUs

Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007

Source: Public filings and MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee

 

4 | LAZARD


   I    INTRODUCTION

 

MOCC Stock Price Trading History

LAST 12 MONTHS’ TRADING VOLUME BY PRICE

LOGO

Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007

Source: Datastream

 

5 | LAZARD


   I    INTRODUCTION

 

Indexed Stock Price Performance – Last 3 Years

MOCC SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE

LOGO

 

1

Cable index consists of Virgin Media, Telenet, Primacom, Mediacom, Comcast, Cablevision, Liberty Global and is not weighted by market capitalisation

Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007

Source: Datastream

 

6 | LAZARD


   I    INTRODUCTION

 

Peer Group – Trading Performance

SIX MONTHS SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE

LOGO

RELATIVE SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE

 

INCREASE / (DECREASE)

   US
AVERAGE (1)
    VIRGIN
MEDIA
    TELENET     LIBERTY
GLOBAL
    PRIMACOM  

Last Week

   4.0 %   2.1 %   4.1 %   2.0 %   (0.6 )%

Last Month

   (2.0 )%   8.3 %   7.3 %   (2.6 )%   3.2 %

Last 2 Months

   0.4 %   11.6 %   9.1 %   4.1 %   2.7 %

Last 3 Months

   4.5 %   15.5 %   15.9 %   8.6 %   23.1 %

Last 6 Months

   27.5 %   4.9 %   33.3 %   24.4 %   66.0 %

 

1

US Average Companies: Cablevision, Charter, Comcast, Mediacom

Note: Market data as at 16 February 2007

Source: Datastream

 

7 | LAZARD


   PROJECT TOLSTOY

 

II MOCC – Financial Forecasts

 

LAZARD


   II MOCC - FINANCIAL FORECASTS

 

Highlights of MOCC Financial Forecasts

 

    

DECEMBER 2006 BUSINESS PLAN

  

ADJUSTED CASE

NETWORK

BUILD OUT

  

•        Homes passed and marketed growing to 2.2m by 2008E, flattening thereafter and reaching 2.4m in 2010E

  

•        Homes passed and marketed growing to 1.9m by 2008E, flattening thereafter and reaching 2.3m in 2010E

PENETRATION   

•        Penetration of homes passed in 2006E, 2008E and 2010E respectively:

 

•        22%, 29% and 49% for Terrestrial TV

 

•        9%, 16% and 24% for Pay TV

 

•        13%, 17% and 22% for Internet

  

•        Penetration of homes passed in 2006E, 2008E and 2010E respectively:

 

•        22%, 34% and 48% for Terrestrial TV

 

•        8%, 13% and 18% for Pay TV

 

•        13%, 19% and 23% for Internet

 

•        Telephony included from 2007E onwards

REVENUES   

•        Revenues grow 79% CAGR from US$24m in 2006E to US$243m by 2010E

  

•        Revenues grow 65% CAGR from US$27m in 2006E to US$198m by 2010E

  

•        Telephony revenues included from 2007E onwards and below 4% of total revenues in 2010E

  

•        Telephony revenues included from 2007E onwards

ARPU   

•        Terrestrial TV ARPU flat at US$1.92

 

•        Pay TV ARPU growing 8% CAGR from US$10.7 to US$14.8 between 2006E and 2010E

 

•        Internet ARPU decreasing 6% CAGR from US$21 to US$17 between 2006E and 2010E

  

•        Terrestrial TV ARPU staying relatively flat from US$1.8 to US$1.9 by 2010E

 

•        Pay TV ARPU rising from US$10.7 to US$12.4 at 4% CAGR by 2010E

 

•        Internet ARPU falling from US$21.4 to US$16.5 by 2010E

 

•        Telephony ARPU flat at US$14.0

EBITDA

MARGIN

  

•        EBITDA positive in 2007E showing an 8% margin

 

•        EBITDA margin reaching 43% in 2010E

  

•        EBITDA positive in 2007E showing an 10% margin

 

•        EBITDA recovery progresses to 39% margin in 2010E

CAPEX   

•        US$253m mostly between 2007E-2009E

 

•        Decreasing to 11% of revenues in 2010E

  

•        Capex declining to 15% of revenues by 2010E

 

•        Capex per RGU declining to US$14.2 by 2010E from US$102.0 in 2006E

Source: December 2006 Business Plan per MOCC Management. Adjusted Case reflects MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee

Note: Based on the Special Committee's assessments as to the relative likelihood of achieving the future financial results reflected in the December 2006 Business Plan and the Adjusted Case, the Special Committee has directed Lazard to rely upon the Adjusted Case for purposes of its opinion

 

8 | LAZARD


   II MOCC - FINANCIAL FORECASTS

 

Potential Execution Risks to Achieving MOCC Financial Forecasts

 

 

Liquidity needs of MOCC and impact of RME lack of support for third party financing

 

 

Ongoing impact of Moscow Decree

 

 

Potential VAT liabilities

 

 

Reliance on RME entities for services

Source: MOCC Management

 

9 | LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

 

III MOCC – Financial Analysis

LAZARD


   III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Valuation Methodologies

Methodologies Utilised:

 

DISCOUNTED CASH

FLOW ANALYSIS

  

•        Estimates the present value of expected future cash flows and a terminal value:

 

•        utilises discount rates to reflect the risk of the estimated cash flows as compared to market risk

 

•        terminal values based on exit year EBITDA multiples

PUBLIC COMPANY

TRADING MULTIPLES

ANALYSIS

  

•        Takes into account several factors, including but not limited to, lines of business, relative business risks, growth prospects, size, scale and market positioning in evaluating MOCC versus selected trading multiples

Other Methodologies:

 

PREMIA PAID

ANALYSIS

  

•        Applies premia paid in minority buyout and other public company transactions:

 

•        similar scale

 

•        Russian operations

 

•        minority buyouts

 

PRECEDENT

TRANSACTION

ANALYSIS

  

•        Takes into account implied multiples paid in selected mergers and acquisitions transactions in relevant industries

 

•        Not used for the following reasons:

 

•        limited number of recent directly comparable transactions

 

•        limited applicability for operations with negative EBITDA

 

•        does not reflect MOCC’s growth potential

 

10 | LAZARD


   III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

MOCC Financial Analysis Summary

(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)

 

 

Investors would likely apply a discount to any DCF valuation of MOCC due to the perceived emerging market risk

MOCC PER SHARE REFERENCE RANGES (US$)

LOGO

 

1

Range reflects high point of EV / 2006E Adjusted Case Revenues and high point of EV / 2007E Adjusted Case Revenues

 

2

Range reflects low point of EV / 2008E Adjusted Case EBITDA and high point of EV / 2008E Adjusted Case EBITDA

 

3

Range reflects low point of EV / 2007E Adjusted Case RGU and high point of EV / 2007E Adjusted Case RGU. RGUs adjusted to reflect relative weighted average monthly revenues

 

4

For informational purposes only

 

5

0% and 20% premium to MOCC Common Stock closing price of $9.99, as at close 3 November 2006 (last trading day prior to RME's initial proposal)

Note: Based on the Special Committee’s assessments as to the relative likelihood of achieving the future financial results reflected in the December 2006 Business Plan and the Adjusted Case, the Special Committee has directed Lazard to rely upon the Adjusted Case for purposes of its opinion

 

11 | LAZARD


   III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

MOCC – DCF Analysis – December 2006 Business Plan

(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)

 

              PV of Terminal Value        

Entity Valuation

 
PV of Free Cash Flows (1)       

2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple

        2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple  
WACC    PV of FCF        WACC     8.00x    9.00x    10.00x    11.00x         WACC     8.00x     9.00x     10.00x     11.00x  
12.0%    (44)      12.0 %   535    602    669    736       12.0 %   491     558     625     692  
13.0%    (44)      13.0 %   516    581    645    710       13.0 %   472     537     601     666  
14.0%    (44)   +    14.0 %   498    561    623    685    =    14.0 %   454     516     579     641  
15.0%    (44)      15.0 %   481    541    602    662       15.0 %   437     497     557     617  
16.0%    (44)      16.0 %   465    523    581    639       16.0 %   421     479     537     595  
18.0%    (44)      18.0 %   434    488    543    597       18.0 %   390     444     498     553  
20.0%    (44)      20.0 %   406    457    507    558       20.0 %   362     412     463     514  
              Equity Valuation (2)        

FCF Terminal Growth Rates Implied

by Multiple Exit

 
              2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple         2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple  
              WACC     8.00x    9.00x    10.00x    11.00x         WACC     8.00x     9.00x     10.00x     11.00x  
        12.0 %   481    548    615    682       12.0 %   4.8 %   5.6 %   6.2 %   6.7 %
        13.0 %   462    527    591    656       13.0 %   5.7 %   6.5 %   7.1 %   7.6 %
        14.0 %   444    507    569    631       14.0 %   6.7 %   7.4 %   8.1 %   8.6 %
        15.0 %   427    487    547    608       15.0 %   7.6 %   8.4 %   9.0 %   9.5 %
        16.0 %   411    469    527    585       16.0 %   8.5 %   9.3 %   10.0 %   10.5 %
        18.0 %   380    434    489    543       18.0 %   10.4 %   11.2 %   11.8 %   12.4 %
        20.0 %   352    403    453    504       20.0 %   12.3 %   13.1 %   13.7 %   14.3 %
             

Implied Value Per Share

                                   
              2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple                                    
              WACC     8.00x    9.00x    10.00x    11.00x                                    
        12.0 %   19.24    21.91    24.58    27.26              
        13.0 %   18.48    21.06    23.64    26.22              
        14.0 %   17.76    20.26    22.75    25.24              
        15.0 %   17.08    19.48    21.89    24.29              
        16.0 %   16.42    18.75    21.07    23.39              
        18.0 %   15.19    17.36    19.53    21.70              
        20.0 %   14.07    16.10    18.13    20.15              

 

1

Includes adjustments of US$18.8 million

 

2

Assumes net debt of US$9.8 million

Source: MOCC Management

 

12 | LAZARD


   III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

MOCC – DCF Analysis – Adjusted Case

(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)

 

              PV of Terminal Value         Entity Valuation  
PV of Free Cash Flows (1)        2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple         2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple  
WACC    PV of FCF        WACC     8.00x    9.00x    10.00x    11.00x         WACC     8.00x     9.00x     10.00x     11.00x  
12.0%    (47)      12.0 %   389    438    487    535       12.0 %   342     391     440     488  
13.0%    (47)      13.0 %   376    423    470    517       13.0 %   329     376     423     470  
14.0%    (46)   +    14.0 %   363    408    453    499    =    14.0 %   317     362     407     453  
15.0%    (45)      15.0 %   350    394    438    482       15.0 %   305     349     392     436  
16.0%    (45)      16.0 %   338    381    423    465       16.0 %   293     336     378     420  
18.0%    (44)      18.0 %   316    356    395    435       18.0 %   272     312     351     391  
20.0%    (43)      20.0 %   295    332    369    406       20.0 %   253     290     326     363  
              Equity Valuation (2)        

FCF Terminal Growth Rates Implied

by Multiple Exit

 
              2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple         2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple  
              WACC     8.00x    9.00x    10.00x    11.00x         WACC     8.00x     9.00x     10.00x     11.00x  
        12.0 %   332    381    430    478       12.0 %   6.7 %   7.2 %   7.7 %   8.1 %
        13.0 %   319    366    413    460       13.0 %   7.6 %   8.2 %   8.7 %   9.0 %
        14.0 %   307    352    398    443       14.0 %   8.6 %   9.2 %   9.6 %   10.0 %
        15.0 %   295    339    383    426       15.0 %   9.5 %   10.1 %   10.6 %   11.0 %
        16.0 %   284    326    368    410       16.0 %   10.5 %   11.1 %   11.5 %   11.9 %
        18.0 %   262    302    341    381       18.0 %   12.4 %   13.0 %   13.5 %   13.9 %
        20.0 %   243    280    317    354       20.0 %   14.3 %   14.9 %   15.4 %   15.8 %
              Implied Value Per Share                                    
              2010E EBITDA Exit Multiple                                    
              WACC     8.00x    9.00x    10.00x    11.00x                                    
        12.0 %   13.29    15.24    17.18    19.13              
        13.0 %   12.77    14.65    16.53    18.40              
        14.0 %   12.27    14.08    15.90    17.71              
        15.0 %   11.79    13.54    15.30    17.05              
        16.0 %   11.34    13.03    14.72    16.41              
        18.0 %   10.49    12.07    13.65    15.22              
        20.0 %   9.71    11.18    12.66    14.14              

 

1

Includes adjustments of US$18.8 million

 

2

Assumes net debt of US$9.8 million

 

13 | LAZARD


   III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Public Company Trading Multiples Analysis – Dec. 2006 Business Plan

(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)

 

 

An initial review of peers suggests that EV / EBITDA is one of the more consistent measures for valuing MOCC

 

 

Given MOCC’s growth profile, multiples have been applied to 2008E

 

 

EV / Adjusted Revenues reflects annualised October 2006 revenues as a conservative proxy for 2006E revenues

IMPLIED PER SHARE REFERENCE RANGES (US$)(2)

LOGO

 

1

EV / Adjusted RGU is calculated by adjusting MOCC’s blended ARPU by the average of selected companies’ ARPU multiplied by the EV / RGU of the selected companies

 

2

Implied value per share reflects December 2006 Business Plan, net debt of US$9.8m and adjustments of US$18.8m per MOCC Management

 

14 | LAZARD


   III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Public Company Trading Multiples Analysis – Adjusted Case

(US$ in millions unless otherwise stated)

 

 

The table below reflects implied per share reference ranges based on the Adjusted Case

IMPLIED PER SHARE REFERENCE RANGES (US$)(2)

LOGO

 

1

EV / Adjusted RGU is calculated by adjusting MOCC’s blended ARPU by the average of selected companies’ ARPU multiplied by the EV / RGU of the selected companies

 

2

Implied value per share based on the Adjusted Case; net debt of US$9.8m and adjustments of US$18.8m per MOCC Management

 

15 | LAZARD


   III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Premia Paid Summary

 

 

The following table summarises premia paid in transactions with transaction values between US$150 million and US$250 million and in Russian transactions announced from 2004 through 2006

PREMIA PAID

 

     Transactions: $150m - $250m     Transactions: Russia  
     1 Day     1 Week     4 Weeks     1 Day     1 Week     4 Weeks  

High

   180.0 %   197.9 %   149.5 %   124.7 %   137.7 %   105.8 %

Mean

   14.1 %   16.0 %   19.3 %   15.6 %   17.8 %   15.8 %

Median

   9.2 %   10.2 %   13.0 %   4.4 %   4.3 %   11.1 %

Low

   (49.3 )%   (57.7 )%   (46.1 )%   (20.7 )%   (20.1 )%   (12.7 )%

 

 

The following table summarises European minority buyout transactions announced from 2004 through 2006

PREMIA PAID

 

     Minority Buyouts  
     1 Day     1 Week     4 Weeks  

High

   126.7 %   162.4 %   174.2 %

Mean

   10.3 %   12.3 %   15.4 %

Median

   3.1 %   5.9 %   9.4 %

Low

   (19.0 )%   (20.8 )%   (23.9 )%

Note: Includes transactions between US$150m and US$250m, Russian transactions, and European transactions in which the target owned > 50% prior to acquisition and acquired 100% stake

Source: Dealogic database, transaction data from 2004 to year end 2006

 

16 | LAZARD


   III MOCC - FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Summary of Research Analysts’ Price Targets

(US$ in millions, except per share data)

 

                    FINANCIALS ($m)    EV MULTIPLE:
               PRICE    REVENUES    EBITDA    REVENUES    EBITDA

FIRM

  

DATE

  

RATING

   TARGET    2006E    2007E    2006E     2007E    2006E    2007E    2006E    2007E

Renaissance Capital

   Sep-13-06    Buy    $ 13.40    23.3    58.4    (7.0 )   5.8    14.98x    6.60x    n.m    66.5x

Aton

   Nov-16-06    Hold      12.70    24.0    62.0    (7.0 )   10.0    11.38x    4.40x    n.m    27.3x
  

MEDIAN

   $ 13.05    23.7    60.2    (7.0 )   7.9            
  

MOCC
- Dec. 2006 Business Plan

      23.6    60.5    (5.1 )   4.9            
  

Adjusted Case

      26.5    59.5    (3.2 )   5.8            

Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital, Aton, MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan per MOCC Management and Adjusted Case (based on MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee)

 

17 | LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

 

IV Additional Considerations

LAZARD


   IV ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

 

RME – Additional Considerations

 

 

RME is the principal provider of funding for MOCC and is currently fully supporting MOCC’s expansion plans

 

 

Through its 51 per cent. stake in COMCOR (which in turn holds a 27 per cent. stake in MOCC), RME effectively controls MOCC’s backbone network access which is provided by COMCOR

 

 

This ownership structure provides MOCC with exclusive rights to utilise the fibre optic network based on certain agreements and prices:

 

   

cost of leased nodes and interconnect (US$450 to US$500 per month for every node)

 

   

traffic charge of c. US$0.18 per GB of traffic with two planned price decreases in the forthcoming year

 

   

charge for the lease of portals / channels

Source: MOCC Management

 

18 | LAZARD


   IV ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

 

MOCC Current Shareholder Structure

MOCC CURRENT SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE

LOGO

Source: MOCC Management

 

19 | LAZARD


   IV ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

 

Financing Considerations

 

 

MOCC requires funding until c. 2010

 

 

With its currently low leverage, MOCC has additional debt capacity but would not be likely to raise non-recourse standalone financing absent an independent verification process (to satisfy lending banks) or, alternatively, a rights issue or primary share offering

EBITDA (US$M)

LOGO

EBITDA LESS CAPEX (US$M)

LOGO

Source: Renaissance Capital, Aton, MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan per MOCC Management and Adjusted Case (based on MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee)

 

20 | LAZARD


   IV ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

 

Moscow Decree

 

 

On 17 October 2006, Moscow City Government issued a resolution requiring a change in the regulations covering television and radio broadcasting in Moscow, specifically broadband cable TV networks:

 

   

develop the pre-project and project documents and estimates for the construction of broadband cable television networks

 

   

arrange for the construction of broadband cable television networks in the city of Moscow

 

   

arrange for the transfer and acceptance of the newly constructed facilities of broadband cable television networks

 

   

ensure the operation of broadband cable television networks to provide users with communications services

 

   

provide for the interaction of executive authorities and supervisory authorities in order to prevent unauthorized construction of telecommunications networks

 

 

The responsibility for checking compliance with these terms has been attributed to Mostelecom, a direct competitor of MOCC

 

 

The Cable Association of Russia has filed a suit against the City of Moscow contesting this resolution with regard to the commercial interest of the associated parties

 

 

If this suit is unsuccessful, MOCC would potentially be obliged to provide its competitor with detailed, commercially sensitive information on its operations:

 

   

this could impact MOCC’s business plan execution

 

   

MOCC’s business plan does not reflect this potential risk

 

 

However, the resolution could be overturned

 

21 | LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

 

A MOCC Financial Forecasts

LAZARD


   A    MOCC FINANCIAL FORECASTS

 

Summary Management Forecast – December 2006 Business Plan

 

For the year ended 31st December

        2006E     2007E     2008E     2009E     2010E     06E-10E
CAGR
 

Homes Passed & Marketed

   ‘000s    782     1,432     2,182     2,352     2,412     33 %

% Increase (Decrease)

   %        52.4 %   7.8 %   2.6 %  

Active RGUs

               

Terrestrial Package

   ‘000s    175     381     634     942     1,192     62 %

Penetration

   %    22.4 %   26.6 %   29.1 %   40.1 %   49.4 %  

Pay TV

   ‘000s    67     185     340     489     582     72 %

Penetration

   %    8.5 %   12.9 %   15.6 %   20.8 %   24.1 %  

Internet

   ‘000s    98     220     370     494     541     53 %

Penetration

   %    12.6 %   15.4 %   17.0 %   21.0 %   22.4 %  

Telephony

   ‘000s    0     4     22     43     65     nm  

Penetration

   %    0.0 %   0.3 %   1.0 %   1.8 %   2.7 %  
                                   

Total Active RGUs

   ‘000s    340     790     1,366     1,969     2,380     63 %

Penetration

   %    43.5 %   55.2 %   62.6 %   83.7 %   98.7 %  

New RGUs

   ‘000s      450     576     604     411    

ARPU

               

Terrestrial Package

   $    1.78     1.92     1.92     1.92     1.92     2 %

Pay TV

   $    10.74     11.90     13.16     14.04     14.80     8 %

Internet

   $    21.34     18.75     18.29     17.47     16.95     (6 )%

Telephony

   $    0.00     13.99     13.29     12.63     12.00     nm  
                                   

Weighted Average ARPU

   $    9.19     9.00     9.33     9.07     8.76     (1 )%

Revenues

               

Terrestrial Package

   $m    2.5     6.2     11.6     18.5     24.8     77 %

Pay TV

   $m    4.5     17.0     40.6     70.7     94.8     115 %

Internet

   $m    15.4     34.0     63.5     92.0     104.9     62 %

Telephony

   $m    0.0     0.2     1.9     4.9     7.8     nm  

Other

   $m    1.2     3.1     7.2     9.7     10.6     73 %
                                   

Total

   $m    23.6     60.5     124.8     195.8     242.8     79 %

Revenues / Active RGU

   $    6.93     7.67     9.14     9.94     10.20    

EBITDA

   $m    (5.1 )   4.9     33.9     74.4     105.2     nm  

% margin

      (22 )%   8 %   27 %   38 %   43 %  

Total Capex

   $m    (35.5 )   (66.5 )   (81.6 )   (44.0 )   (25.8 )   (8 )%

Capex as % of sales

   %    151 %   110 %   65 %   22 %   11 %  

Capex per RGU

   $    104.47     84.27     59.73     22.35     10.84     (43 )%

Capex per New RGU

   $      14.80     14.16     7.29     6.28    

Source: MOCC Management

 

22 | LAZARD


   A    MOCC FINANCIAL FORECASTS

 

Summary Financial Forecast – Adjusted Case

 

For the year ended 31st December

        2006E     2007E     2008E     2009E     2010E     06E-10E
CAGR
 

Homes Passed & Marketed

   ‘000s    782     1,332     1,932     2,262     2,322     31 %

% Increase (Decrease)

   %      70.2 %   45.1 %   17.1 %   2.7 %  

Active RGUs

               

Terrestrial Package

   ‘000s    174     375     654     942     1,111     59 %

Penetration

   %    22.2 %   28.2 %   33.9 %   41.7 %   47.9 %  

Pay TV

   ‘000s    65     140     251     351     418     59 %

Penetration

   %    8.3 %   10.5 %   13.0 %   15.5 %   18.0 %  

Internet

   ‘000s    98     210     356     488     533     53 %

Penetration

   %    12.5 %   15.8 %   18.5 %   21.6 %   23.0 %  

Telephony

   ‘000s    0     4     20     41     63     nm  

Penetration

   %    0.0 %   0.3 %   1.0 %   1.8 %   2.7 %  
                                   

Total Active RGUs

   ‘000s    337     728     1,281     1,822     2,124     58 %

Penetration

   %    43.0 %   54.7 %   66.3 %   80.6 %   91.5 %  

New RGUs

   ‘000s      392     553     541     302    

ARPU

               

Terrestrial Package

   $    1.78     1.89     1.90     1.90     1.90     2 %

Pay TV

   $    10.67     10.74     10.80     11.48     12.38     4 %

Internet

   $    21.39     20.00     18.75     17.25     16.50     (6 )%

Telephony

   $    0.00     14.00     14.00     14.00     14.00     nm  
                                   

Weighted Average ARPU

   $    9.21     8.86     8.52     8.13     7.98     (4 )%

Revenues

               

Terrestrial Package

   $m    2.8     6.2     11.7     18.2     23.4     71 %

Pay TV

   $m    5.3     13.2     25.3     41.4     57.1     81 %

Internet

   $m    17.3     36.9     63.7     87.4     101.1     56 %

Telephony

   $m    0.0     0.3     2.0     5.1     8.7     nm  

Other

   $m    1.2     2.8     5.1     6.9     8.1     62 %
                                   

Total

   $m    26.5     59.5     107.8     159.1     198.3     65 %

Revenues / Active RGU

   $    7.88     8.17     8.42     8.73     9.34    

EBITDA

   $m    (3.2 )   5.8     21.0     46.1     76.6     nm  

% margin

      (12 )%   10 %   19 %   29 %   39 %  

Total Capex

   $m    (34.3 )   (47.5 )   (57.9 )   (47.0 )   (30.3 )   (3 )%

Capex as % of sales

   %    130 %   80 %   54 %   30 %   15 %  

Capex per RGU

   $    102.03     65.19     45.19     25.78     14.24     (39 )%

Capex per New RGU

   $      12.12     10.47     8.69     10.01    

Source: MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee

 

23 | LAZARD


   A     MOCC FINANCIAL FORECASTS

 

Adjusted Case – Certain Assumptions

 

    

ASSUMPTIONS

  

BENCHMARK AND COMMENTS

NETWORK BUILD OUT   

•        Homes passed and marketed growing to 1.9m by 2008E, flattening thereafter and reaching 2.3m in 2010E

  

•        Homes passed and marketed aligned with December 2006 business plan and average market expectations

PENETRATION   

•        Penetration of homes passed in 2006E, 2008E and 2010E respectively:

 

•        22%, 34% and 48% for Terrestrial TV

 

•        8%, 13% and 18% for Pay TV

 

•        13%, 19% and 23% for Internet

 

•        Telephony included from 2007E onwards

  

•        Penetration levels for Terrestrial TV and Internet aligned with December 2006 business plan. Internet penetration benchmarked with brokers

 

•        Less aggressive penetration assumptions for Pay TV which are broadly in line with brokers average of 8%, 12% and 16%

 

•        Telephony included broadly in line with December 2006 business plan – reflecting conservative growth in market position

ARPU   

•        Terrestrial TV ARPU staying relatively flat from US$1.8 to US$1.9 by 2010E

 

•        Pay TV ARPU rising from US$10.7 to US$12.4 at 4% CAGR by 2010E

 

•        Internet ARPU falling from US$21.4 to US$16.5 by 2010E

 

•        Telephony ARPU flat at US$14.0

  

•        Terrestrial TV ARPU in line with December 2006 business plan

 

•        Conservative Pay TV ARPU in line with Russian forecasts and brokers

 

•        Forecasting sharper decline in Internet ARPU than business plan – in line with brokers by 2010E

 

•        Telephony ARPU assumed broadly consistent with December 2006 business plan

EBITDA MARGIN   

•        EBITDA positive in 2007E showing an 10% margin

 

•        EBITDA recovery progresses to 39% margin in 2010E

  

•        Broadly in line with December 2006 business plan and in line with more mature comparable operators’ current margin assumptions of c.40% to 45%

CAPEX   

•        Capex declining to 15% of revenues by 2010E

 

•        Capex per RGU declining to US$14.2 by 2010E from US$102.0 in 2006E

  

•        Forecast in line with comparable operators’ Capex as percentage of revenues (c.10% to 25%)

 

•        More conservative decline in Capex per RGU to US$14.2 (15% of revenues) by 2010E than December 2006 Case (US$10.8 (11% of revenues) by 2010E)

Source: Adjusted Case reflects MOCC Management December 2006 Business Plan as adjusted at the direction of the Special Committee

 

24 | LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

 

B MOCC – Corporate Adjustments

LAZARD


   B     MOCC - CORPORATE ADJUSTMENTS

 

MOCC – Corporate Adjustments

 

 

Corporate adjustments per MOCC Management to MOCC December 2006 Business Plan and Adjusted Case include the following:

 

   

off balance sheet savings bank cash, which allows MOCC to participate in the demutualisation of savings banks

 

   

fair value mark-up on book value of real estate in Bloomfield

 

   

assumed value of MOCC’s 43.5 per cent. holding in IAS

 

   

pension plan surplus net of deferred tax liabilities

 

   

other liabilities relating to amounts due to former executives

 

 

No adjustment has been made for corporate overheads at MOCC:

 

   

this would negatively impact MOCC’s per share value

MOCC CORPORATE ADJUSTMENTS

LOGO

Source: MOCC Management

 

25 | LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

 

C Selected Public Companies

LAZARD


   C     SELECTED PUBLIC COMPANIES

 

Selected Public Companies – Trading Statistics

 

    

Equity

Value

($m)

  

Enterprise

Value

($m)

   Enterprise Value as a Multiple of:
           Revenues    EBITDA    EBITDA - Capex

Company

         2005A    2006E    2007E    2008E    2005A    2006E    2007E    2008E    2005A    2006E    2007E    2008E

Virgin Media

   9,086    20,239    2.60x    2.47x    2.44x    2.36x    9.3x    8.4x    7.9x    7.0x    17.1x    16.5x    13.7x    10.5x

Telenet

   3,106    4,691    4.85x    4.38x    4.04x    3.68x    10.6x    9.8x    9.2x    8.5x    18.2x    21.0x    18.3x    16.0x

Liberty Global

   11,679    22,221    3.82x    3.42x    3.01x    2.78x    12.1x    9.0x    7.7x    7.1x    34.4x    29.2x    17.4x    15.3x

Cablevision

   8,761    20,623    3.98x    3.49x    3.18x    2.96x    13.0x    11.3x    10.6x    9.6x    25.2x    21.6x    17.2x    14.3x

Comcast

   85,907    103,127    4.63x    4.00x    3.38x    3.08x    12.1x    10.4x    8.7x    7.8x    22.8x    19.0x    14.4x    12.8x

Primacom

   209    636    4.10x    3.72x    3.30x    2.99x    10.3x    9.3x    8.2x    7.5x    10.3x    9.3x    8.2x    7.5x

Mediacom

   877    4,002    3.64x    3.31x    3.03x    2.77x    9.9x    9.1x    8.3x    7.6x    22.6x    17.4x    14.1x    12.1x
      Mean    3.95x    3.54x    3.19x    2.94x    11.0x    9.6x    8.6x    7.9x    21.5x    19.1x    14.8x    12.6x
      Median    3.98x    3.49x    3.18x    2.96x    10.6x    9.3x    8.3x    7.6x    22.6x    19.0x    14.4x    12.8x

 

    

Equity

Value

($m)

  

Enterprise

Value

($m)

  

Key Operational Statistics

           EV / RGU    Capex as % of Sales     Capex / RGU

Company

         2005A    2006E    2007E    2008E    2005A     2006E     2007E     2008E     2005A    2006E    2007E    2008E

Virgin Media

   9,086    20,239    $ 1,984    $ 1,948    $ 1,863    $ 1,810    13 %   14 %   13 %   11 %   $ 97    $ 113    $ 101    $ 85

Telenet

   3,106    4,691    $ 1,713    $ 1,542    $ 1,410    $ 1,290    19 %   24 %   22 %   20 %   $ 68    $ 84    $ 77    $ 71

Liberty Global

   11,679    22,221    $ 1,351    $ 1,159    $ 1,088    $ 1,015    21 %   26 %   22 %   21 %   $ 73    $ 89    $ 79    $ 77

Cablevision

   8,761    20,623    $ 2,778    $ 2,327    $ 2,112    $ 1,979    15 %   15 %   12 %   10 %   $ 104    $ 97    $ 77    $ 69

Comcast

   85,907    103,127    $ 2,510    $ 2,034    $ 1,843    $ 1,704    18 %   17 %   15 %   15 %   $ 96    $ 89    $ 84    $ 86

Primacom

   209    636      na      na      na      na    na     na     na     na       na      na      na      na

Mediacom

   877    4,002    $ 1,656    $ 1,537    $ 1,417    $ 1,306    21 %   18 %   15 %   14 %   $ 94    $ 81    $ 71    $ 65
      Mean    $ 1,999    $ 1,758    $ 1,622    $ 1,517    18 %   19 %   17 %   15 %   $ 89    $ 92    $ 81    $ 75
      Median    $ 1,849    $ 1,745    $ 1,630    $ 1,505    18 %   17 %   15 %   15 %   $ 95    $ 89    $ 78    $ 74

Source: Public filings, Analysts’ research; market data as at 16 February 2007

 

26 | LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

 

D Selected Precedent Transactions

LAZARD


   D     SELECTED PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS

 

Selected Precedent Transactions

(US$ in millions, except per subscriber figures)

 

              

EQUITY

VALUE

  

ENTITY

VALUE

   EV as a Multiple of:

DATE

  

ACQUIROR

  

TARGET

         REVENUES    EBITDA    RGUs

29-Nov-2006

   Telenet    UPC Belgium    $ 246    $ 246    NA    NA    $ 1,427

13-Nov-2006

   Liberty Global Inc    Telenet Group (6.7%)      2,633      4,187    4.19x    9.4x    $ 1,452

3-Oct-2006

   Cyrte Investment Fund (3.53%)    Telenet Group (3.53%)      2,452      3,992    4.03x    9.1x    $ 1,384

29-Sep-2006

   Liberty Global    Karneval s.r.o. and Forecable s.r.o.      NA      412    NA    NA    $ 1,330

8-Sep-2006

   Warburg Pincus & Cinven    Casema Holding      2,629      2,629    NA    11.9x    $ 1,955

1-Sep-2006

   Carlyle / Providence    UPC Sweden      408      442    NA    9.0x    $ 1,099

3-Aug-2006

   Cogeco Cable    Televisao por Cabo SA      NA      596    3.49x    12.6x    $ 975

20-Jul-2006

   Altice One SA    UPC France SA      NA      1,578    3.03x    11.9x      NA

30-Mar-2006

   Renova    Teleinform      40      40    4.44x    NA    $ 100

1-Feb-2006

   Providence Equity Partners Inc (IBO)    Kabel Deutschland GmbH (63.4%)      NA      3,751    3.18x    7.9x    $ 391

24-Jan-2006

   Candover    UPC Norway      NA      541    NA    9.8x    $ 1,481

9-Jan-2006

   Mid Europa Partners LLP    Aster City Cable Sp z oo      NA      483    6.59x    NA    $ 1,062

5-Dec-2005

   Warburg Pincus LLC    Multikabel BV      NA      616    NA    NA    $ 1,948

25-Oct-2005

   Liberty Global    Cablecom Holding AG      2,179      3,388    5.59x    14.2x    $ 2,259

3-Oct-2005

   Goldman Sachs Group    Pirelli & C SpA      605      1,605    3.60x    13.5x    $ 2,700

10-Feb-2005

   UnitedGlobalCom, Inc    Telemach d.o.o.      95      99    NA    8.2x    $ 899

20-Dec-2004

   UnitedGlobalCom Inc    Chorus Communications Ltd      55      161    NA    6.9x    $ 806

04-Nov-04

   Delta Private Equity Partners    National Cable Networks JSC      20      20    NA    NA    $ 13

27-Feb-2004

   EWS Energie AG    Kabel-TV-Anlage Luesch      2      2    NA    NA    $ 358

24-Feb-2004

   Andersen Group Inc.    ComCor-TV (50%)      56      56    0.82x    4.2x    $ 1,049

13-Nov-2003

   Creditors    Cablecom Holding AG      1,609      1,609    4.01x    10.4x    $ 1,073

31-Oct-2003

   Telewizja Kablowa Vectra SA    Telewizja Kablowa Dami Sp z oo      33      33    NA    NA    $ 295

13-Mar-2003

   PE Consortium    Deutsche Telekom AG      2,274      2,274    2.29x    5.8x    $ 1,516

28-Jan-2003

   Investor Group    Casema      686      686    3.01x    NA    $ 502

23-Dec-2002

   Altice France Est    Est Videocommunication      125      125    3.73x    NA    $ 810
              Median    3.66x    9.4x    $ 1,067
              Mean    3.71x    9.7x    $ 1,120

Source: Public filings, Analysts’ research

 

27 | LAZARD


PROJECT TOLSTOY

 

E Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Calculation

LAZARD


   E     WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) CALCULATION

 

MOCC WACC Calculation

 

      ASSUMPTIONS    

COMMENTS

Risk Free Rate    4.04 %   German 5 year bond rate
Estimated Cost of Debt    12.00 %   MOCC assumption
Country Risk Premium    6.22 %   6 year average spread of Euro denominated German 5 year bond rate over Russian 5 year Eurobond rate adjusted for 1.5x emerging market equity risk
Equity Risk Premium    4.84 %  
Unlevered Beta    1.0    
Target Debt to (Equity to Debt)    50 %  
Effective Tax Rate    24.0 %   MOCC assumption; 2006 KPMG Corporate Tax Survey

WACC

   15.9 %  

 

28 | LAZARD


   E     WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) CALCULATION

 

MOCC WACC Calculation – Country Risk Premium

LOGO

 

1

Spread of Euro denominated German 5 year bond rate over Russian 5 year Eurobond rate adjusted for 1.5x emerging market equity risk

 

29 | LAZARD


   E     WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) CALCULATION

 

MOCC WACC Calculation

 

Risk Free Rate (Rf)

   4.04 (1)

Country Risk Premium (CRP)

   6.22 (2)

Equity Risk Premium (ERP)

   4.84 %

Russian Equity Risk Premium (ERP)

   11.06 (2)

Tax Rate (T)

   24.00 (3)

MOCC Unlevered Beta

   1.00  

 

Target
Debt /
Equity
   Unlevered
Beta
   Levering
Factor
   Levered
Beta
   Cost of
Equity(4)
 
0.0%    1.00    1.00    1.00    15.1 %
10.0%    1.00    1.08    1.08    15.9 %
20.0%    1.00    1.15    1.15    16.8 %
30.0%    1.00    1.23    1.23    17.6 %
40.0%    1.00    1.30    1.30    18.5 %
50.0%    1.00    1.38    1.38    19.3 %
60.0%    1.00    1.46    1.46    20.1 %
70.0%    1.00    1.53    1.53    21.0 %
80.0%    1.00    1.61    1.61    21.8 %
90.0%    1.00    1.68    1.68    22.7 %
100.0%    1.00    1.76    1.76    23.5 %
110.0%    1.00    1.84    1.84    24.3 %
120.0%    1.00    1.91    1.91    25.2 %

 

Pre-tax Cost of Debt (Rd)     10.50 %   11.00 %   11.50 %   12.00 %   12.50 %   13.00 %   13.50 %
Post-tax Cost of Debt     7.98 %   8.36 %   8.74 %   9.12 %   9.50 %   9.88 %   10.26 %
                
Target Debt    Target
Equity
   

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

 
Equity + Debt    Equity + Debt    
0.0%    100.0 %   15.1 %   15.1 %   15.1 %   15.1 %   15.1 %   15.1 %   15.1 %
9.1%    90.9 %   15.2 %   15.3 %   15.3 %   15.3 %   15.4 %   15.4 %   15.4 %
16.7%    83.3 %   15.3 %   15.4 %   15.4 %   15.5 %   15.6 %   15.6 %   15.7 %
23.1%    76.9 %   15.4 %   15.5 %   15.6 %   15.7 %   15.7 %   15.8 %   15.9 %
28.6%    71.4 %   15.5 %   15.6 %   15.7 %   15.8 %   15.9 %   16.0 %   16.1 %
33.3%    66.7 %   15.5 %   15.7 %   15.8 %   15.9 %   16.0 %   16.2 %   16.3 %
37.5%    62.5 %   15.6 %   15.7 %   15.9 %   16.0 %   16.2 %   16.3 %   16.4 %
41.2%    58.8 %   15.6 %   15.8 %   15.9 %   16.1 %   16.3 %   16.4 %   16.6 %
44.4%    55.6 %   15.7 %   15.8 %   16.0 %   16.2 %   16.3 %   16.5 %   16.7 %
47.4%    52.6 %   15.7 %   15.9 %   16.1 %   16.3 %   16.4 %   16.6 %   16.8 %
50.0%    50.0 %   15.7 %   15.9 %   16.1 %   16.3 %   16.5 %   16.7 %   16.9 %
52.4%    47.6 %   15.8 %   16.0 %   16.2 %   16.4 %   16.6 %   16.8 %   17.0 %
54.5%    45.5 %   15.8 %   16.0 %   16.2 %   16.4 %   16.6 %   16.8 %   17.0 %

Methodology

bl = [1+ (1-T)D/E]be,u

Re = Rf+be,lERP + SP

WACC = ReE/(E+D)+RdD(1-T)/(E+D)

 

1

German 5 year rate

 

2

6 year average spread of Euro denominated German 5 Year Government Bond over Russian 5 Year Eurobond Rate adjusted for 1.5x emerging market equity risk

 

3

KPMG Corporate Tax Survey

 

4

Calculated as: Rf + Levered Beta[CRP+ERP] + SP

 

30 | LAZARD