EX-99.(C)(4) 3 a06-19974_1ex99dc4.htm EX-99









 

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Special Committee Discussion Materials

 

 

Goldman, Sachs & Co.

2-Aug-2006

 



 

Risks Should Not Be Underestimated

 

             5-year plan methodology:  high-level projections, not bottom-up budget

 

             Executing on unidentified opportunities underlying growth expectations

 

             Oil production and prices

 

             Project overruns and delays

 

             Capital markets:  access, cost, rates

 

             Sustaining capex needs

 

             Securing customer commitments for expansions

 

2



 

Inherent Limitations of 5-Year Plan vs. Detailed Annual Budget

 

Greater risk / volatility with 5-Year Plan:

 

                  Difficulty in projecting some of the key inputs beyond one year, including oil prices, interest rates, MLP yields, economic growth

 

                  Reasonable assumptions and estimates are subject to higher level of uncertainty in later years

 

                  Even the annual budget has its risks: 2006 YTD performance at the lower end of expectations

 

                  KMP is performing behind six-month plan

 

                  Budgeted earnings $504mm / Actual $494mm

 

                  CO2 six-month production run-rate translates into an expected $20mm cash flow shortfall

 

                  Approximate $20mm anticipated cash flow impact from rate reductions due to SFPP rate case

 

3



 

Impact of Unidentified Opportunities

 

Key Assumptions

 

      Approximately $500mm in average annual incremental unidentified growth opportunities across all segments

      7.0x EBITDA multiple

 

 

 

Rationale

 

      Ability to grow current asset base through complementary expansions / bolt-on additions

      Management team track record of successful execution and belief in its ability to continue to seek out attractive opportunities

 

 

 

Key Inherent Risks

 

      Changing competitive landscape in the asset acquisition market

      Capital markets access

      Cost risk for organic expansion

 

 

 

Indicative Sensitivity in Cumulative 2007-10 KMI Free Cash Flow

 

      Approximately $35mm - $45mm for each 1.0x change in assumed KMI / KMP EBITDA acquisition / expansion multiple

 

      Change in 2010 EBITDA: $25mm - $35mm

 

      Approximately $60mm - $70mm for a $200mm decrease in average annual incremental unidentified growth opportunities across all KMP segments

 

      Change in 2010 EBITDA: $35mm - $45mm

 

Note:  Free Cash Flow defined as tax-effected EBIT + standard non-cash charges and other partnership-related adjustments – sustaining capex.

 

4



 

CO2 Production and Oil Price Assumptions

 

5



 

Key Assumptions

 

      Volume includes approximate 33% wedge above proved

      Forward-curve based pricing on 100% of unhedged production

 

      $70/bbl for 2007-10

      Approximate IBES forward estimates:  $60/bbl, $54/bbl, $53/bbl, and $51/bbl for 2007-10, respectively

 

      14%, 18%, 25%, and 32% of volumes unhedged from 2007-10, respectively, including hedges put in place since plan was constructed

 

      23 mmbbls have been locked-in at $90mm cumulative deficit to plan, since plan construction

 

 

 

Rationale

 

      Continued strong oil price fundamentals

      Growing experience in operating complex EOR projects

      Experience in executing conservative hedging strategies

 

 

 

Key Inherent Risks

 

      Production growth profile

 

      SACROC YTD production behind plan by approximately 1.3 mmbbls

 

      Required capital expenditures

      Sustainability of high oil prices

 

 

 

Indicative Sensitivity in Cumulative 2007-10 KMI Free Cash Flow

 

      $10 decrease in oil price results in approximate $40mm - $50mm decrease

 

      Change in 2010 EBITDA: $25mm - $35mm

 

      10% decrease in production results in approximate $140mm - $150mm decrease

 

      Change in 2010 EBITDA: $60mm - $70mm

 

6



 

Growth Projects Timing and Costs

 

Key Assumptions

 

 

 

Fully Operational

 

Cost to KM

 

 

 

      REX

 

2008-9

 

$

2.3

bn

 

 

      LA

 

2009

 

$

0.5

bn

 

 

      TMX I

 

2007-8

 

$

0.6

bn

 

 

      TMX II

 

2010

 

$

1.3

bn

 

 

 

Key Inherent Risks

 

      Cost overruns at REX, LA, and TMX I & II

      Materials

      Construction services

 

      Timing delays due to:

      Shipper commitment timing (TMX II)

      Construction time (ALL)

 

 

 

Indicative Sensitivity in Cumulative 2007-10 KMI Free Cash Flow

 

      1 year delay in REX and LA results in approximate $125mm - $135mm decrease

      Change in 2010 EBITDA: $10mm - $20mm

 

      10% increase in budget for REX, LA, and TMX I & II results in approximate $20mm - $30mm decrease

      Change in 2010 EBITDA: $15mm - $25mm

 

7



 

Capital Markets

 

Key Assumptions

 

      7.3% MLP dividend yield

 

      6.5% approximate average cost of debt at KMI and KMP

      Approximately 50% of debt is floating

 

 

 

Key Inherent Risks

 

      Interest rate increases

 

      Incremental cost due to size of required financing

 

 

 

Indicative Sensitivity in Cumulative 2007-10 KMI Free Cash Flow

 

      Approximate $5mm - $10mm decrease for every 50 bps increase in assumed MLP yield

      Change in 2010 EBITDA: $2mm - $7mm

 

      Approximate $40mm - $50mm decrease for every 50 bps increase in assumed MLP interest rates

      Change in 2010 EBITDA: $20mm - $30mm

 

8



 

Sustaining Capex Assumptions

 

Key Assumptions

 

      Sustaining capital expenditures essentially flat throughout projection period

 

 

 

Rationale

 

      Current condition of asset base

 

      Proactive maintenance measures to mitigate the need for expensive future resolutions

 

 

 

Key Inherent Risks

 

      Cost inflation

 

      Higher asset utilization than assumed

 

      Accelerated wear and tear

 

      Cost to comply with regulatory, environmental and national security requirements

 

      Increased MLP sustaining capex

 

 

 

Indicative Sensitivity in Cumulative 2007-10 KMI Free Cash Flow

 

      Approximately $75mm - $85mm for a 10% annual increase in KMI sustaining capital expenditures

      Change in 2010 FCF: $40mm - $50mm

 

      Approximately $20mm - $30mm for a 10% annual increase in KMP sustaining capital expenditures

      Change in 2010 FCF: $5mm -$10mm

 

9



 

Key Project Customer Commitments

 

Key Assumptions

 

Pre-Committed Capacity

 

 

 

 

 

 

      REX:

100%

 

 

      LA:

100%

 

 

      TMX I:

100%

 

 

      TMX II:

Unsecured

 

 

 

Rationale

 

      Continued strong fundamentals for Canadian oil sands

      Increased use of heavy oil

      Increased supply of LNG to Gulf Coast

 

 

 

Key Inherent Risks

 

      Economic growth assumptions

      Supply / demand balance disruptions

      Regional resource constraints for oil sands (e.g. labor)

      Competing pipeline projects

 

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